Tag Archives: siversk

National, Russia-Ukraine War

All quiet on all the fronts – July 17, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,062 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui announced on July 15 that the operational pause by Russian forces was over. In the first 36 hours since the announcement, Ukraine had the quietest day on the battlefield since February 24. The Russia-Ukraine War is entering Phase 3, but it remains unclear what that will look like.

Luhansk – Multiple videos and reports from Russian state media confirmed that Russian troops have not been able to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and hold new territory. Russian forces shelled the ridge between the refinery and Verkhnokamyanske on July 15 – 16, while Russian armored vehicles have been unable to advance across the Luhansk-Donetsk border without facing heavy artillery fire.

Fighting for control of Zolotarivka continued, and Ukrainian forces continued to hold Bilohorivka.

NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) was used to strike a Russian antiaircraft battery station at the trolley barn in Alchevsk, Luhansk, and a Russian command base.

Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported their positions were shelled in Hryhorivka, and Russian forces performed aerial reconnaissance on Serebryanka. Despite reports of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatists, their forces have not taken either settlement or advanced into Siversk.

Russian forces continue to fight for control of Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka. Two small reconnaissance in force groups attempted to move into Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful in securing the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway.

Bakhmut – Russian forces shelled or fired rockets from MLRS at Soledar, Pokrovske, and Bakhmut.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka.

NATO-provided HIMARS rockets hit the Russian barracks in Lazurne, Kherson, on the coast of the Black Sea near Crimea.

Mykolaiv – Ten more missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv, likely S-300 antiaircraft missiles pressed into ground-to-ground service. There were reports of multiple fires but no additional information.

Sumy – The settlements of Hlukkhiv, Esman, Novoslobidske, Shalyhyne, Bilopillia, Khotin, and Krasnopillia were shelled by artillery and rockets fired by MLRS from Russian positions across the international border.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces made no attempts to advance on the line of conflict, relying on artillery fire and air strikes. It is the first time since April 17 that no attempted advances were reported.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Ukrainian forces were able to evacuate seven civilians from the Sviatohirsk Cave Monastery on the north bank of the Siverski Donets River. Up to 100 monks and 500 civilians that are pilgrims or those who sought sanctuary remain at the historic monastery.

Daily Assessment

  1. It remains unclear after the announcement that the operational pause is over what the Russian Ministry of Defense’s next move is – today was the quietest day since February 24.
  2. We believe the pause was too short and that Russian troops have not significantly restored combat power nor secured new gains in Luhansk.
  3. Pro-Russian accounts are now spinning the lack of progress along the Luhansk-Donetsk border to force Ukrainian troops to consolidate in Siversk and get them in a cauldron to be surrounded.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine liberates towns in Luhansk and Donetsk- July 16, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,061 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – On July 12, Ukrainian artillery shelled newly established Russian positions in Bilohorivka to set conditions for a counteroffensive. The next day, members of the Kraken Battalion staged a counteroffensive within the town itself. They engaged in intense house-to-house fighting that lasted for hours, forcing the Russian garrison to surrender. At least a squad-sized group of Russians were captured. The entire counteroffensive was documented.

Based on the verified raid of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka and Serebryanka in Donetsk are assessed as under Ukrainian control. Additionally, Zolotarivka remains contested. Ukrainian forces also destroyed Russian armored vehicles on the western edge of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on the hamlets of Nahirne and Bilohorivka [Donetsk], suffered significant losses, and returned to their defensive positions. The Ukrainian stronghold of Siversk was shelled, as well as Ivano-Darivka and Berestove.

Bakhmut – Russian artillery continued to concentrate on the towns around Bakhmut. Russian forces shelled Nova Kamyanka, Soledar, Pokrovske, Bakhmut, and Paraskoviivka.

The claims by the military officials of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic that Stryapivka and Nova Kamyanka were captured were false. An analysis of a propaganda video released by the republic claiming Stryapivka was captured revealed it was filmed in the town of Volodymyrivka. On Friday, Russian forces shelled and launched an air strike on Ukrainian positions in Nova Kamyanka.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces made several small attacks with platoon-sized groups toward Luhanske and Vershyna and were unsuccessful. Ukraine continues to control the Vuldehar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – South of Donetsk, Russian forces attempted to advance on Solodke, Volodymyrivka, and Pavlivka in the most significant offensive effort in weeks. The attacks were unsuccessful and Russian forces suffered significant losses at Pavlivka.

There are unconfirmed reports by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that a Russian Su-25 was shot down in the area of Orikhiv.

Kherson – In Kherson, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers launched six Kh-101 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea region at Dnipro. Four were intercepted, but two hit an “industrial enterprise” and the street of a civilian area. Three people were killed and at least 15 wounded in the daytime attack. One of the people killed was a city bus driver.

Kharkiv – there were no ground attacks of significance from either belligerent. A Russian cruise missile, likely a Kh-101 based on the size of the crater, missed its target and landed just outside of a school, causing moderate damage.

Sumy – The settlements of Shalyhyne, Hlukhiv, Seredyna-Buda, and Bilopillya was hit by mortar fire and artillery fired from positions within Russia. One person was killed and four wounded in Hlukhiv. Pro-Russian social media accounts claimed that Ukrainian forces fired counterbattery across the international border into the Russian settlements of Neslitsy and Dronovka.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Bohorodychne with Ukrainian forces advancing to the bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The Russian military has been blocked from advancing toward Slovyansk from the settlement, which has been shattered after almost two months of fighting.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Odesa – A Russian cruise missile struck a warehouse in Odesa, causing a major fire. There were no reports of casualties because the workers evacuated to a shelter when the air raid sirens went off. Thick black smoke rose above the city, but there weren’t any secondary explosions or indications that a munitions depot was hit.

Two Russian Su-24 aircraft bombed Snake Island in another attempt to destroy the equipment left behind during the June 30 retreat. At the mouth of the Danube River, 30 kilometers west, dozens of civilian bulk carrier ships are at anchor, waiting to load Ukrainian grain in Romania.

Kyiv – A Russian cruise missile was shot down in the Bilotserkivskyi District of Kyiv, with debris landing in Irpin. The warhead was located and defused, and there were no injuries.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to systematically terrorize Ukraine’s civilian population, using outdated munitions with low accuracy.
  2. While the Kherson axis has stabilized in the short term, the Izyum axis is becoming problematic for Russian forces due to supply interdiction and a continued heavy focus on the Donbas.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for the next Russian offensive.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

With Battlefront Frozen, Russia Terrorizes Civilians – July 15, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,060 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – We continue to assess Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka in the Luhansk oblast as contested. Neither belligerent has provided definitive proof they control either settlement.

A Russian ammunition depot in Kadiivka, Luhansk, was hit by High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) munitions. Multiple secondary explosions were recorded on video, with Grad or Smerch rockets launching from all directions. Thermite munitions were also launched from the burning depot, raining back down on the surrounding area.

Northeast Donetsk – Pro-Kremlin sources dismissed claims that the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic had advanced into and captured Siversk, calling the reports “premature.” The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that troop positions in Hryhorivka were shelled by Russian forces with artillery and rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

The July 13 Russian offensive on Verkhnokamyanske was costly, forcing Russian troops to pull back to reconsolidate units.

West of Popasna, Russian forces made a small advance on Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful. The settlements of Berestove and Vesele were also shelled. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed that Russian troops had been pushed out of Spirne.

The update posted on Telegram by FSB Colonel and war criminal Igor Girkin appears to be the most accurate assessment of current Russian combat operations. Russian forces are exhausted, lacking human capital and equipment, and are still in an operational pause.

Bakhmut – Russian forces shelled Pokrovske, Vesela Dolyna, Bakhmut, and Chasiv Yar to set conditions for a future offensive. The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar remained at 48.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces attempt to advance on Kodema and Vershyna while shelling Luhanske, Zaitseve, and the Vuldehar Power Plant. None of the advances were successful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Southwest of Horlivka, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic were partially successful in advancing into Kamyanka but, by sunset, had been pushed back to the original line of conflict.

Ukraine has claimed that high-ranking Russian commanders were killed in targeted HIMARS attacks over the past week. Russian state media reported that two deputy commanders of the Russian 106th Airborne Division, Colonels Sergei Kuzminov and Andrey Vasiliev, were killed on July 9.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Mariupol – In Russia-occupied Mariupol, city streets and yards remain littered with unexploded ordnance and landmines. Local residents report that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Chechen proxy forces stopped clearing mines and explosives from civilian areas.

Insurgents in Mariupol set the Satelit Factory on fire. Resistance leaders said, “It’s better to let it burn than to let the Russians loot and steal.”

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

There are strong indications that Ukrainian forces have started to advance south of Kyselivka.

Ukrainian Special Operation Forces raided a Russian POW camp at an undisclosed location in the Kherson oblast, rescuing Ukrainian POWs and civilian captives in the raid.

Mykolaiv – Ten Russian cruise missiles slammed into two universities in Mykolaiv. After one of the strikes, a video showed no additional fires, secondary explosions, military vehicles, or troop presence.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile destroyed a school in Synelnykove. There were reports of casualties, but no additional information was given.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Sumy – Russian forces stepped up cross-border attacks in the Sumy oblast, striking eight Ukrainian settlements. The towns of Myropil, Yunakivka, Esman, Nova Sloboda, Khotin, Shostka, Krasnopillia, and Velyka Pysarivka were attacked by artillery, mortars, MLRS, and small arms fire. There was no information on casualties.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Kurlka by Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SOF). There were no other territorial changes, with Russian forces once again attempting to secure the contested settlement of Bohorodychne. Ukrainian SOF, small units, and artillery continue to interdict Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) on the western front of the Izyum axis.

Vinnytsia – The death toll in Vinnytsia from the Russian cruise missile attack remained at 23, with over 60 wounded. Nine people remain missing.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense is systematically terrorizing Ukraine’s civilian population, purposely targeting non-military targets and timing strikes in daytime hours to maximize casualties.
  2. The Kremlin, LNR leaders, and Pro-Russian accounts have significantly overstated Russian gains over the last week, which have been minor.
  3. Ukraine continues to progress steadily in the Kherson oblast advancing along the entire axis, where Russian forces continue to struggle to hold defensive positions.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Cruise Missile Attack on Vinnytsia Kills 22, Wounds 90 – July 14, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 20 weeks since the Russian-Ukrainian War began and 3,059 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

BREAKING NEWS: At least 22 people are dead and 90 wounded, 50 critically, after four Russian cruise missiles struck the western Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia on Thursday morning, destroying an office building complex and at least one building of a hospital.

The missile crashed into the city center at 11:00 AM while it was full of office workers and shoppers. Three missiles struck a complex of office buildings and a fourth hit a medical center. Debris set cars in a parking lot on fire, spreading to over 50 vehicles. Vinnytsia is 120 kilometers north of Moldova in western Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi addressed his nation, calling the strike a terrorist attack.

“Vinnytsia – a missile attack on the city center,” Zelenskyy started. “There are wounded and dead, among them a small child. Every day, Russia destroys the civilian population, kills Ukrainian children, and directs rockets at civilian [infrastructure]. Where there is nothing military. What is this, How is it not an open act of terrorism? Inhumans. A murderous country. A terrorist country.”

Vinnytsia Region Administrative and Military Governor Serhii Borzov reported that eight missiles were fired in the direction of the city. Air defenses were able to shoot down four.

https://malcontentment.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/293726709_420058033510548_283581556363458589_n.mp4
July 14, 2022 – rescuers search for survivors after a Russian cruise missile attack in the center of Vinnytsia, Ukraine

The Office of the Prosecutor General announced that a criminal investigation had been opened for “violation of the laws and customs of war.”

July 14, 2022 – a hospital building in Vinnytsia, Ukraine lies in ruins after taking a direct hit from a Russian cruise missile – the attack on the city killed at least 22 and wounded 90

Luhansk – To the best of our capabilities to assess the situation, we believe that Ukraine maintains a presence in Bilohorivka [Luhansk], and Hryhorivka is contested.

Video from Ukrainian forces showed Russian positions east of Bilhorivka [Luhansk] being attacked by 220mm rockets fired by an Urgan Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). There was a significant secondary explosion. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian positions in Hryhorivka were shelled by Russian artillery.

Northeast Donetsk – The Assistant Minister of the Interior of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, claimed that Russia-backed LNR separatists had captured Siversk.

FSB Colonel and war criminal Igor Girkin denied Kiselev’s claim, writing, that there aren’t any ongoing offensives, which aligned with reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“Nothing new at the frontline. The operational pause continues,” Girkin wrote. “Which does not exclude the artillery and missile strike exchanges.”

Russian forces interdicted the Bakhmut-Siversk Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line), firing artillery and rockets at Mykolaivka and Siversk.

Fighting continued in Verkhnyokamyanske and Ivano-Daryivka, with no changes in territorial control. Late on July 13, Haidai indicated the situation had “deteriorated,” and heavy fighting erupted in Verkhnyokamyanske.

Russian forces shelled Kryvya Luka, Railhorodok, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], and Yakovlivka, west of Popasana.

Bakhmut – Russia Imperial Legion terrorists attached to the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group pushed into Pokrovske. The reconnaissance in force group was unsuccessful and suffered heavy losses.

A small group of Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakolivka and were unsuccessful. Another group of up to two platoons tried to advance on Vesela Dolyna and Vershyna, but both failed.

Russian forces continued the systematic artillery attacks in the Bakhmut area, likely setting conditions for a future offensive. Pidhorodne, Opytne, Zaitseve, Kodema, and the Vuldehar Power Plant were shelled.

The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar has climbed to 48. Nine people have been found alive in the rubble. Search and rescue operations continue.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian positions in Horlivka were hit by artillery or rockets in a massive barrage on the city.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces struck the Russian-controlled city of Nova Kakhovka for a third time, destroying a large ammunition depot at the Sokol factory.

In the rest of Kherson, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Izyum – Russian forces were able to advance onto Kurulka from Dibrovne after more than a month of attempts to move forward. There was a report in the morning that the reconnaissance in force group had been pushed back north out of the settlement.

Odesa – Black Sea – The Russian Air Force attempted to bomb Snake Island with two Su-27 aircraft. The bombs landed in the ocean and did not strike the unoccupied island. The air strike comes just as Ukrainian grain started to move again through the Danube-Black Sea Canal, and more than 90 civilian bulk carriers await at anchor, some as close as 20 kilometers from the island.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they left Snake Island on June 30, as a gesture of “goodwill” to permit Ukrainian grain to start moving from western ports.

Daily Assessment

  1. There is significant confusion on the status of Siversk and if a Russian offensive is ongoing to capture the transit and supply hub.
  2. Russian artillery continues to methodically targets potential routes to advance on Bakhmut and Slovyansk but still lacks the combat power to launch significant operations.
  3. Overall the front remains frozen after President Putin announced the operational pause.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russian Forces Make Small Gains – July 13, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,057 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – Pro-Russian social media accounts shared a video of a TOS-1 thermobaric rocket attack against Ukrainian positions in Zolotarivka, which is in Luhansk. Based on the current combat video by Russian sources, the settlement of Zolotarivka is contested.

Ukraine hit a large ammunition depot in Luhansk city using the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). There was a major fire and multiple secondary explosions, including rockets. Pro-Russian unaffiliated journalist Starshe Eddy wrote, “Judging by the distant peals of explosions, something did fly to Lugansk. At first, the work of the air defense was…audible. Now the [booms] of detonation,” indicating that Russian air defense failed to intercept the rockets.

Northeast Donetsk – The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured the settlement of Hryhorivka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention the town in their report. Neither did Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor. The advance on Hryhorivka would indicate that Bilohorivka [Luhansk] was captured.

Additionally, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported air strikes against Ukrainian positions in Serebryanka, west of Hryhorivka.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Sprine and Ivano-Daryivka with air support from the Russian air force. The advance was unsuccessful, and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the retreat was “chaotic.”

Bakhmut – Russian forces launched a massive Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and artillery attack on Bakhmut, beginning to systematically destroy the infrastructure in the city. There were unconfirmed reports of fighting near Soledar in the settlements of Nova Kamyanka and Stryapivka.

The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar has climbed to 45. Nine people have been found alive in the rubble.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Vershyna and Novoluhanske, but there wasn’t ground fighting.

Slovyansk – Kramatrosk – Russian forces shelled Pryshyb, Mayaky, Kryva Luka, and Raihorodok, and are likely setting conditions for a future offensive on the cities turned fortresses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – An ammunition depot in Petrovskyi District of Donetsk at the Donetsk Transport Equipment Plant was hit by artillery. There were multiple secondary explosions as black smoke rose across the city.

RIA-Melitopol reported explosions and gunfire at a new Russian base in Myrne, Zaporizhia, north of the city of Melitopol. Ukrainian partisans reported that Russian forces moved the surviving equipment to the region after the airbase at Melitopol was destroyed by HIMARS rockets last week.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control or reports of significant fighting.

South Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an artillery strike destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Charivne. The settlement is on the Nova Kakhovka-Davydiv Brid T-2207 Highway GLOC.

Mykolaiv – Russian forces used S-300 antiaircraft missiles in the July 11 missile strike on Mykolaiv. Over 20 missiles struck the city, wounding 12. The use of antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role indicates that Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into Kherson could be compromised. Alternatively, Russia may be unable to get the electronic parts required to build new S-300 missiles capable of providing antiaircraft capabilities.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Russian forces hit the Industrial District of Kharkiv city with rockets fired from MLRS, injuring four people.

Missiles hit the industrial cities of Khrestyshche and Kostyantynivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed a warehouse full of recently delivered M777A2 155mm howitzers.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt offensive operations and relied on artillery, MLRS, and tank fire. The settlements of Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Barvinkove, Nikopol, Husarivka, Adamivka, Velyka Komyshuvakha, and Nova Dmytrivka were struck.

For the second day in a row, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian positions in Sulihivka were attacked. The settlement is believed to be under Russian control but is located on the line of conflict, which is very porous in this region. A video from July 9 shows Russian artillery and troops destroying four tanks and ground fighting east of Sulihivka.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukraine reopened the Danube-Black Sea Canal and did an emergency restoration to an unused Soviet-era river port to restart grain exports. The first 16 cargo ships have made their way into the canal, with up to 90 additional bulk carriers waiting their turn in the Black Sea. The port at Sulin can only accommodate four ships a day, with officials working to double the capacity.

Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Yuriy Vaskov said that by mid-August, the port would be capable of exporting 500,000 tons of grain a month.

Beyond Ukraine – Self-proclaimed Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko fired Major General Alexander Shkirenko. He was the Head of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. No reason was given for his termination, nor was a replacement officer announced.

Daily Assessment

  1. The operational pause continues and likely will for weeks. Russia continues to suffer a serious disadvantage in the number of trained light infantry troops available.
  2. Russian artillery methodically targets potential routes to advance on Bakhmut and Slovyansk but still lacks the combat power to launch significant operations.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
  4. We maintain that the risk of Belarus entering the war is extremely low.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 9, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,053 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 8, there was only a minor territorial change related to liberation or capture in Ukraine. There weren’t major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, missile, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. To the west of the oil refinery, Ukrainians mounted a furious counterattack in Verkhnokamyanske and pushed Russian forces back to the Luhansk-Donetsk border.

Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported, “So far, no operational pause announced by the enemy has been observed. [Russia] attacks and bombards our lands with the same intensity as before.”

Northeast Donetsk – Siversk – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged intense artillery fire. Russian forces shelled Zaitseve, Vershyna, Yakolivka, and Ivano-Darivka. The Russian air force attacked Spirne, with Ukrainian forces holding the Russian ground assault at the eastern edge of the settlement.

Bakhmut – No reliable source reported any major offensive or counteroffensive operations around Lyman, Siversk, Soledar, or Bakhmut. Russian forces tried to advance on Hrybhorivka, but the line of conflict remained frozen.

Pro-Russian social media accounts reported Ukrainian forces shelled Klynove, preventing terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion working with Private Military Company Wagner Group from advancing.

The most intense fighting was in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant. Russian forces tried to advance from Dolomitne, Novoluhaske, and Luhanske. They were unsuccessful in all areas.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets hit an ammunition depot just north of Russia-controlled Kadiivka. There have been numerous secondary explosions. The Kirovs’kyi fuel depot, hit by artillery or HIMARS-delivered rockets on July 7, continued to burn. Precision munitions hit another weapons facility in the Kalininskyi District of Donetsk. Secondary explosions indicate the target was an ammunition depot.

Kherson – Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine called for civilians in the occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to evacuate by all possible means.

“We must look for an opportunity to leave because our Armed Forces will [be liberating]. It will be a huge fight. I do not want to scare anyone – everyone understands everything anyway.”

In Kherson city, Explosions and fire from the ammunition depot and heavy weapons field service area Ukraine attacked on July 7, continued. Ukrainian forces destroyed another ammunition depot northeast of the water treatment plant in Kherson, on the border of Chornobaivka. There are multiple secondary explosions.

Russian forces attacked the Ukrainian bridgehead at Velyke Artakove along the Inhulets River and were unsuccessful in driving Ukraine out and could not destroy the wet crossing.

In Nova Kakhovka, Kherson, the Deputy Head of the Nova Kakhovka police, was assassinated by insurgents. Serhii Tomko was shot in his car.

Mykolaiv – In the Mykolaiv Oblast, the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade destroyed five Russian T-80 tanks using Stugnas and captured some of the tank crews.

Kharkiv – Northwest and north of Kharkiv, there were artillery exchanges and skirmishes, with neither belligerent launching offensive operations.

Southeast of Kharkiv, there was renewed fighting by Chuhuiv, with Ukrainian forces shelling the settlement of Hrakove. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) suggested there was fighting in Zaliznychne.

Izyum – Southeast of Izyum, Russian forces attempted to capture Bohorodychne and lost nine Main Battle Tanks (MBT). Multiple geolocated videos visually confirmed the losses. Five Russian tanks blundered into a minefield. The other four were destroyed in an artillery barrage. Additionally, Ukrainian forces recaptured a T-72B MBT that was captured by Russian forces in April.

Russian forces shelled Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Chepil.

South of Kramatorsk, the town of Druzhkivka was hit by Russian cruise missiles.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok again.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, Russian troops are maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas with artillery, rockets, air strikes, and offensive operations along the Luhansk-Donetsk border.
  2. Ukraine is vigorously defending Siversk, indicating that the next battle will likely be for control of the transit hub.
  3. Ukrainian forces continue to dismantle Russian command and control, ammunition, and fuel depots far behind the line of conflict, which is sapping the morale of Pro-Russian civilians who didn’t anticipate combat operations this deep into separatist regions.
  4. Supply interdiction by Ukrainian forces is impacting Russian air defense capabilities in Kherson, where Ukrainian air assets have regained air dominance.

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