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Part 5: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

This is part five of a ten-part series that explains the rise of modern Islamic extremism. From 1951 to 2021, a series of key geopolitical events, many independent of each other, caused the Islamic Revolution, the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS, the creation and collapse of the caliphate, and the reconstitution of ISIS as ISKP. While Western influence and diplomatic blunders are well documented through this period, the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation are equally culpable. The editors would like to note that a vast majority of the 1.8 billion people who are adherents to some form of Islam are peaceful and reject all forms of religious violence.

Read Part Four: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

Iraq invades Kuwait, Al Qaeda prepares for terror, and storm clouds brew over Chechnya

Prologue 

In 1990, the Soviet Union was in collapse, and its influence on the world stage was greatly diminished as General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev focused on internal issues. Western news reports told a story of a peaceful transition from Soviet rule in the Eastern Bloc nations and the Soviet Republics.

The reality was very different from what played on American TV sets, with Soviet troops and security forces continuing to use brutality to try and hold the USSR together. Republics that were previously countries were allowed to slip away. But when the idea of freedom from Soviet rule started to spread to historical Russian Imperial Empire lands, that was a bridge too far—which will be the topic in the sixth installment. This detour to explain the roots of the First Gulf War is critical to understanding what caused the full radicalization of Osama bin Laden, which led to the creation of ISIS and two decades of Islamic extremist terrorism within the borders of the Russian Federation.

Saddam Hussein prepares for another war 

At the end of the Iran-Iraq War, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein intensified his brutal suppression of Shia and Sunni Muslims and Iraqi Kurds. While the Ba’aathist government aligned with the idea of Pan-Arab nationalism in the Greater Middle East, it rejected Sharia law and fundamentalist Islam. As the only secular Arab government in the region, Iraq was a terror target for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran and condemned by the newly formed Al Qaeda Arab Legion led by Osama bin Laden. Due to its secular lean and opposition to Iran, the West opted to ignore Hussein’s brutality and pro-Soviet stance and maintained cautious diplomatic ties.

The Iran-Iraq War had been fought to a stalemate, but the core of Iraq’s military might and Hussein’s Republican Guard was not only left intact but had grown. Shunning repayment of the debts Baghdad accumulated, Hussein went on a spending spree, purchasing over $10 billion of tanks and other heavy equipment from the Soviet Union ($25.5 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars) and additional equipment from France. He expanded his chemical weapons program and invested in domestic weapons production using dual-use goods.

Hussein wanted Kuwait back, in alignment with the long-standing Ba’aathist goal of reunification, whether through negotiations or military force. A new war was coming to the Middle East.

The creation of Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia and the start of the First Gulf War

At the end of World War I, as the Ottoman Empire collapsed, the British took control of large swaths of the Middle East. Due to centuries-old territorial disputes, fighting erupted between the Kingdom of Kuwait, which was loosely part of Iraq, and the House of Najd, which would become part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1923.

In an attempt to resolve the regional disputes, the British High Commissioner in Baghdad, Percy Cox, arbitrarily defined the borders between Iraq, Kuwait, and Nejd. Many Kuwaitis and Iraqis were against the split, and there were significant reunification movements, leading to an armed revolt in 1939. At the behest of Great Britain, Shaikh Ahmad al-Sabah, the tenth ruler of the Sheikhdom of Kuwait, put down the rebellion.

Kuwait would remain a British protectorate until June 19, 1961. Iraq refused to recognize Kuwati’s independence but backed down less than a month later after the detente by the Arab League backed by Britain. A treaty of friendship was signed in 1963, and on May 14, the U.N. formally recognized Kuwait’s sovereignty. Tension between Iraq and Kuwait remained high, with a series of minor border crises and skirmishes through the mid-1970s.

Economic warfare, a 70-year-old border dispute, and a diplomatic blunder leads to war

During the eight years of the Iran-Iraq War, Kuwait had loaned $65 billion to Iraq for economic and military assistance. Iraq claimed it couldn’t repay, and Hussein demanded that Kuwait forgive the debt because it had defended the region from the spread of Iranian radicalism. Kuwait refused and escalated the situation by implementing a 40 percent increase in oil production.

In 1990, Baghdad accused Kuwait of slant drilling into Iraqi oil fields and ignoring OPEC-set limits on oil production. During the late spring and summer, the Iraqi military started building up on the Kuwait and Saudi borders.

Washington was alarmed, and on July 25, 1990, United States Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, met with Hussein for an explanation. During the meeting, Glaspie told him, “I know you need funds. We understand that, and our opinion is that you should have the opportunity to rebuild your country. But we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait.” Hussein promised that Baghdad would look for a diplomatic solution but framed the issue with Kuwait as an existential crisis, declaring that Iraq would “never accept death.”

History continues to debate if Hussein interpreted Glaspie’s words as a green light to invade Kuwait. In 1991 Senate hearings and under oath, she denied even making the statement, but intelligence leaks in 2011 confirmed the content of her conversation with Hussein and that she submitted a positive read of the meeting to Washington.

The next day, OPEC announced that Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates agreed to reduce oil output by 25 percent in an attempt to ease regional tensions. The diplomacy and economic concessions didn’t matter; Hussein had always intended to occupy Kuwait by force, and the slant drilling claim was his casus belli.

An abandoned Iraqi BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle in Kuwait City – First Gulf War
Credit – Photographer unknown – public domain

On August 2, Iraqi troops crossed the border, defeating the Kuwaiti military in just two days. Under Iraqi occupation, the brutal repression of Kuwaitis and Palestinian refugees living in the country started, including extrajudicial killings, torture, kidnappings, imprisonment, and rape. Hussein’s Republic Guard looted the country, and Saudi officials worried that the historical disagreements between Iraq and the Najd would lead to the invasion of their country.

Aftermath of February 25, 1991, Iraqi Scud missile attack on Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
Credit – Staff Sergeamt Lee F. Corkran – public domain

The concern was not misplaced. U.N. Resolution 678 gave Iraq until January 15 to withdraw from Kuwait. If the resolution was ignored, then enforcement by military force was authorized. When a coalition of 42 nations started their air campaign against Iraq in January 1991, Baghdad responded by launching Scud short-range ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia, mostly targeting civilians. The attacks killed one Saudi and wounded 78. A missile strike on a U.S. logistics base in Dhahran killed 27 American soldiers and wounded more than 100.

Iraqi forces briefly invaded Saudi Arabia on January 29 but were pushed back. The first coalition forces crossed into Iraq on February 15 to set conditions for the main invasion, which started on February 24. Major fighting ended on March 1, with the Iraqi military shattered. The advance toward the Iraqi capital of Baghdad ended with Hussein pressing for peace and U.S. armored forces reaching the limit of their logistics.

Saudi response to the Kuwait invasion is the final straw for Osama bin Laden

After Iraq invaded Kuwait, King Fahd of Saudi Arabia formally requested military assistance from the U.S. After the request, bin Laden met with him and Minister of Defense Sultan bin Abdulaziz, claiming that he could lead a coalition of former mujahadeen fighters and Al Qaeda to defend Saudi Arabia. Asked how he would respond to a theoretical chemical weapons attack, bin Laden responded, “with faith.”

Fahd and bin Abdulaziz were not impressed.

After bin Laden was rejected, he denounced the Saudi government and royal family, stating that the Qu’ran forbid non-Muslims from stepping foot in Saudi Arabia and that Mecca and Medina could only be defended by Sunni Muslims. His continued criticism, political interference, and repeated attempts to lead Muslim clerics in a fatwa declaration against the Saudi royal family led to his house arrest and eventual exile. Bin Laden’s radicalization was complete. In 1991, he and his Al Qaeda militants left for Sudan, and the Saudis were glad to see him go.

The Soviet Union crumbles

An unknown man protesting in Vilnius, Lithuania, on January 13, 1991, during the Soviet Union’s attempt to stop Lithuanian independence
Credit – Photographer unknown – public domain

On June 4, 1989, the Solidarity Trade Union overwhelmingly won the elections in Poland, starting a series of revolutions, first in the Eastern Bloc, quickly followed by the Soviet Union.

  • May 2, 1989 – Hungary starts to remove its fence on the border with Austria
  • June 4, 1989 – Poland ends Communist Rule
  • August 19, 1989 – the Pan-European Picnic is held near Sopronpuszta, Hungary, with over 800 East Germans crossing the Austrian border
  • October 23, 1989 – Hungary dissolves the Presidential Council
  • November 9, 1989 – the Berlin Wall falls
  • November 28, 1989 – Czechoslovakia eliminates the clause in their constitution declaring Communism holds a “leading role”
  • December 1, 1989 – East Germany ends single-party Communist rule
  • December 25, 1989 – Romanian Communist leader Nicolae Ceaușescu and his wife are executed
  • January 15, 1990 – Bulgaria eliminates the clause that Communism holds a “leading role”

The fall of Soviet power over the Eastern Bloc would have a profound impact on an unassuming 5’6″ tall, Moscow-educated KGB agent assigned to Dresden, East Germany. On December 5, 1989, after a mob stormed the headquarters of the East German Stasi, part of the group broke off, turning their attention across the road to the office of the KGB.

The guards retreated into the building, and a KGB Lieutenant Colonel who was the Soviet Union’s liaison to the Stasi emerged, issuing a warning to the crowd: “Don’t try to force your way into this property. My comrades are armed, and they’re authorized to use their weapons in an emergency.”

It was a calculated bluff, but the warning was enough to convince the group to leave. Afraid that a larger, better-organized mob could return, the KGB officer contacted the headquarters of a nearby Red Army unit, asking for reinforcement. His request was denied, being told, “We cannot do anything without orders from Moscow. And Moscow is silent.”

That 14-year KGB veteran was Lieutenant Colonel Vladimir Putin. Putin was a product of Yuri Andropov’s KGB leadership and, at that moment, felt he had been stabbed in the back by Moscow and the West’s interference in Soviet affairs.

In another three months, the political tidal wave that swept Eastern Europe would spread across the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics. From March 1990 to September 1991, eleven Soviet states that were colonized by the Russian Imperial Empire, or occupied as part of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany, or were subjugated under Soviet rule, declared independence.

  • March 11, 1990 – Lithuania
  • April 9, 1991 – Georgia
  • August 20, 1991 – Estonia
  • August 21, 1991 – Latvia
  • August 24, 1991 – Ukraine
  • August 25, 1991 – Belarus
  • August 27, 1991 – Moldova
  • August 31, 1991 – Kyrgrzstan
  • September 1, 1991 – Uzbekistan
  • September 9, 1991 – Tajikistan
  • September 23, 1991 – Armenia

A twelfth, the Checheno-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic also declared independence on September 7. However, Checheno-Ingush was different as it had never been a country. For Moscow, the newly declared Chechen Republic of Ichkeria could not be allowed to exist. Soviet leaders feared that if they didn’t quell the bid for independence, other oblasts and autonomous republics would follow, plunging the country into multiple civil wars.

The quest for Chechen independence started when the head of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union of Grozny was murdered. Militants stormed a session of the Supreme Soviet, took over the building, and threw him out a window. One of the men behind the attack who wanted an independent Chechnya was Akhmad Kadyrov.

In November 1991, Moscow sent troops to Grozny in an attempt to regain control. The next 18 years would lead to a civil war and terrorist violence, leaving hundreds of thousands dead. Moscow’s destruction of Chechnya would enrage Osama bin Laden and other militants within the Muslim world.

Tomorrow’s installment: Moscow’s attempt to prevent Chechen independence becomes a brutal war, sparking outrage among radical Islamists. The First Chechen War deepens the ties between Al Qaeda and Islamic militants and Chechen fighters.

Read Part Six: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

International News, National

Part 4: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

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This is part four of a ten-part series that explains the rise of modern Islamic extremism. From 1951 to 2021, a series of key geopolitical events, many independent of each other, caused the Islamic Revolution, the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS, the creation and collapse of the caliphate, and the reconstitution of ISIS as ISKP. While Western influence and diplomatic blunders are well documented through this period, the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation are equally culpable. The editors would like to note that a vast majority of the 1.8 billion people who are adherents to some form of Islam are peaceful and reject all forms of religious violence.

Read Part Three: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

State-sanctioned violence grows in Afghanistan as the Soviets prepare to withdraw

Moscow forces the replacement of their puppet leader in Afghanistan and struggles to find an exit 

When the Soviets assassinated Hafizullah Amin on December 27, 1979, and installed Babrak Karmal as their puppet leader, KGB head Yury Andropov advocated for Mohammad Najibullah to be installed as the head of the state security services of Afghanistan—the KHAD. After his appointment, Andropov immediately started an influence campaign to convince Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev and Amin to support expanding Najibullah’s power, which earned him a seat in the Afghanistan Politburo.

When Najibullah took over the KHAD in 1980, he was responsible for 120 people. Six years later, the KHAD was an independent government Ministry with 30,000 highly paid employees trained by KGB advisors. Most of the KHAD budget came from the Soviet Union, and shortly after Andropov became the General Secretary of the Soviet Union in November 1983, he started laying the groundwork to replace Karmal with his protege, Najibullah.

During the six years Najibullah led the KHAD, the KGB funded and trained its staff. Over 16,000 extrajudicial executions were carried out, and 100,000 were imprisoned. The KHAD brutally tortured peasants and tribesmen, burned villages, killed livestock, and destroyed crops in an attempt to identify members of the mujahadeen. In the cities, anti-communists, intellectuals, professors, doctors, and educated professionals were threatened, assassinated, falsely imprisoned, and executed. Flush with funds from the Soviet Union and under Najibullah’s leadership, the KHAD was wildly corrupt.

When Mikhail Gorbachev became the Soviet Premier in 1985, he continued to follow the path created by Andropov, believing that after the Soviet withdrawal, Najibullah would be a stronger leader who would stay loyal to Moscow. The Main Defense Intelligence Directorate of the Soviet Union (GRU) disagreed. In their assessment, Najibullah would be even more polarizing than Karmal and would not be able to build a strong coalition with the various Afghan tribal warlords. Gorbachev was unmoved.

Soviet Union soldiers in Kabul, Afghanistan -1986
Credit – Photographer unknown – public domain

Moscow hoped that their newly installed leader could bring the fractured Afghanistan nation to reconciliation, ending eight years of violence, allowing the exit of Soviet troops, and keeping a pro-Soviet government in place. On May 4, 1986, Najibullah was made the General Secretary of the Afghanistan Politburo, with Karmal remaining as the Chairman of the Revolutionary Council. The assessment by the GRU that ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Pashtuns would resist cooperating with Najibullah, and the armed factions fighting against Soviet troops would reject him was accurate. Additionally, Karmal fought back, openly questioning Najibullah’s loyalty to Afghanistan, exposing his trail of corruption, and spreading misinformation.

Najibullah complained to Moscow that Karmal was interfering with his rule and asked for guidance, with Gorbachev deciding on a non-violent solution. In November 1986, Karmal was dismissed from the Revolutionary Council and exiled to Moscow. The Kremlin now saw the reconciliation strategy as a failure and decided that negotiating peace was the best option. Gorbachev also believed that due to the improving relationship with the United States, he could push for more favorable terms.

In March 1987, the first round of U.N.-sponsored peace talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan was held in Geneva, Switzerland, with the U.S. and the Soviet Union as guarantors. Pakistan negotiators refused to meet with the Afghanistan delegation because they did not recognize the Soviet-backed and controlled government as legitimate. The first round of negotiations failed, with Pakistan refusing to agree to a 16-month timetable for a controlled withdrawal of Soviet troops, demanding it be eight months. Additionally, the Soviets asked for the immediate end of U.S. arms shipments and financial support to the Afghan resistance as a condition for Soviet withdrawal. Washington refused.

In July, Najibullah made a secret trip to Moscow to meet with Gorbachev. The Soviet leader pressed him to make additional government reforms, hoping that the dead reconciliation plan could be brought back to life. Gorbachev’s council was undermined by the KGB, who advised against implementing some of his recommended reforms. Returning to Afghanistan, Najibullah announced that single-party rule would end. However, there were tight restrictions on what platforms would be acceptable. New parties were required to want to maintain relations with the Soviet Union, had to be Muslim, and had to oppose colonialism, imperialism, Zionism, racial discrimination, apartheid, and fascism. The mujahadeen and all but one armed faction fighting against the Soviet-backed Afghan government boycotted the August elections, but several new leftist parties were formed and were able to gain a handful of government seats.

In September, a second round of peace talks was held in Geneva. While progress was made in establishing the legitimacy of the Afghan government, no progress was made in establishing a timetable for the Soviet withdrawal, and the U.S. again refused to end military and financial aid before the Soviet troop withdrawal was complete.

In November, during the conference of the Afghanistan Politburo, Najibullah proposed accelerating the timetable for the Soviet withdrawal from 16 months to 12. A new constitution was approved, creating the office of the President. On November 30, Najibullah, running unopposed, was elected president of Afghanistan. Under the mandate of the new constitution, the Revolutionary Council would be dissolved and replaced with a General Assembly elected by the people.

On February 8, 1988, Soviet negotiators announced a conditional date of withdrawal from Afghanistan, hoping that the U.S. would agree to the immediate end of military and financial aid to the Afghanistan rebels. Washington rejected the proposal. With the domestic situation in the Soviet Union deteriorating, Gorbachev decided that an unfavorable peace deal was better than remaining in Afghanistan.

On April 14, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Soviet Union, and the U.S. signed the Geneva Accords. Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to non-interference and non-intervention, and Pakistan agreed to stop the flow of weapons across its border. The Soviet Union agreed that the withdrawal of the 40th Combined Arms Army would begin on May 15 and be completed by February 15, 1989. The U.S. did not have to end military and financial aid before the completion of the Soviet withdrawal.

On February 15, 1989, the last column of BTR-80 armored personnel carriers of the Soviet 40th Combined Arms Army crossed the Friendship Bridge into Soviet Uzbekistan. General Boris Gromov symbolically walked behind the troops, becoming the last Soviet soldier to withdraw from Afghanistan. Mobbed by reporters, he cursed profusely, later explaining that his anger was directed at “the leadership of the country, at those who start the wars while others have to clean up the mess.”

The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan elevates Osama bin Laden to a cult of personality

There are questions about how much combat Osama bin Laden was engaged in with the mujahedeen, but he did participate in a handful of tactical battles. During his time in Pakistan and Afghanistan, bin Laden used his wealth and influence to promote victories on the battlefield and recruit Arabs to the Islamic cause within Afghanistan. While bin Laden was media-shy, his talent as a leader was well-known in the Middle East, converting his influence into a cult of personality.

Osama bin Laden -1988
Credit – Photographer unknown – public domain

But bin Laden was looking ahead to the future. In 1988, shortly after the signing of the Geneva Accords, he quietly founded Al Qaeda. For him, Afghanistan was the end of the beginning. Al Qaeda would continue its violent jihad against what he perceived were the enemies of fundamentalist Islam and fight to establish Muslim states controlled by Sharia law.

Despite fighting against the Soviet Union, a lot of bin Laden’s beliefs were influenced by his exposure to Soviet propaganda, including late 19th Century Eastern European and Imperial Russia antisemitism. In the simplest of terms, bin Laden believed that Muslim Arabs faced four enemies: the Jews and Israel, the United States, “heretics,” and Shia Muslims, particularly Iranian Shias.

At the time of the Soviet withdrawal, bin Laden believed that the West had wronged Arabs and Muslims worldwide. The Al Qaeda charter established that the people of democratic nations directly participate in their government, making them legitimate military targets due to their complicity in their government decisions. Further, any “good Muslim” civilian who was killed due to their proximity to an attack would be blessed in death and go to paradise.

In 1989, bin Laden returned to Saudi Arabia and was given a hero’s welcome along with his Al Qaeda Arab Legion. He continued to lead a triple life, running aspects of the family construction business, continuing to work with Pakistan and Saudi Arabian intelligence agencies, and indirectly and directly supporting jihadist activity in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

Bin Laden would return to Afghanistan to personally lead up to 800 Al Qaeda fighters in Operation Jalalabad, which was an attempt to install a pro-Pakistani mujahadeen government in Kabul. Although Soviet troops had withdrawn from Afghanistan, military aid to the Najibullah government continued. Moscow sent approximately $4 billion in weapons and ammunition, including OTR-21 Tochka-U short-range ballistic missile launchers with Scarab missiles and Su-27 multirole fighter aircraft.

Operation Jalalabad was a complete failure, with the Afghan army using its arsenal to stop the offensive. Up to 500 of bin Laden’s militants were killed, and he was forced to return to Saudi Arabia, further imbittered by another betrayal.

Once back in Saudi Arabia, bin Laden supported opposition movements against the Saudi royal family and ordered the executions of the leaders of the Soviet-backed Yemeni government. He also interfered with reunification talks in Yemen, which has led to decades of civil war, famine, and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The unrest continues to this day, with north Yemini rebels switching from Al Qaeda-oriented dogma to gaining support from the Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran. Today, the IRGC-backed Houthi rebels control approximately 30 percent of Yemen and have interfered with global shipping since November 2023 in support of the Hamas-initiated war against Israel.

The increasing influence of bin Laden and his meddling in Saudi government affairs drew the attention of King Fahd and the ire of the then-President of Saudi Arabia, Ali Abdullah Saleh. They now viewed bin Laden as more than a problem they could manage—he was becoming a threat.

The Saudis weren’t the only country warily watching bin Laden and the Al Qaeda Arab Legion. U.S. intelligence was also hearing chatter that his plans weren’t just contained to the Greater Middle East.

It was now 1990, and in less than two years, the first attempted Al Qaeda terror attack on U.S. soil would be stopped, and the Saudi government would send bin Laden into exile.

Over the last four chapters, we’ve outlined a number of events that individually, are completely disconnected. However, in 1991, all roads from the Soviet Union, the U.S., Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan converge to Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. The only thing missing was the final spark. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was preparing to light that fire.

Tomorrow’s installment: Iraq invades Kuwait, sparking the First Gulf War. The Saudi Royal Family rejects a plan by Osama bin Laden, sending him into exile. The Soviet Union starts to collapse and the Kremlin starts another war.

Read Part Four: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

International News, National

Part 3: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

2 Comments

This is part three of a ten-part series that explains the rise of modern Islamic extremism. From 1951 to 2021, a series of key geopolitical events, many independent of each other, caused the Islamic Revolution, the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS, the creation and collapse of the caliphate, and the reconstitution of ISIS as ISKP. While Western influence and diplomatic blunders are well documented through this period, the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation are equally culpable. The editors would like to note that a vast majority of the 1.8 billion people who are adherents to some form of Islam are peaceful and reject all forms of religious violence.

Read Part Two: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

Part Three – Efforts by the Soviets and the United States to contain Islamic extremism only helped it to spread

The rise of Saddam Hussein and the start of the Iran-Iraq War

After the death of his brother in an April 1966 plane crash, Abdul Salam Arif came to power in Iraq. U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson considered Arif a political moderate and saw an opportunity to improve U.S.-Iraq relations with the hope of tugging the Middle Eastern nation away from the Soviet Union. On June 5, 1967, while dialog between Baghdad and Washington was ongoing, the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War started. In response to the U.S. backing of Israel, Arif severed diplomatic relations.

Arif’s political opponents used the Six-Day War as leverage to push his new government to nationalize the foreign-owned Iraq Petroleum Company so he could use oil as an economic weapon. Behind the discord, the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party was plotting a coup, with future president Saddam Hussein among the lead conspirators. On July 17, 1968, Arif’s government was overthrown in a mostly peaceful coup d’etat, installing Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr as president. After taking control, the new Ba’athist government announced it would embrace its current relationship with the Soviet Union and grow relations with the Chinese People’s Republic.

Vice President of Iraq Saddam Hussein (L) and Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, better known as the Shah of Iran (R), during the Algiers Agreement meetings in 1975
Credit – Photographer unknown – public domain

Hussein was named vice president of Iraq and led the full nationalization of the country’s oil industry, which was completed in 1972. At the time of the coup, relations between Iraq and Iran were poor due to Iran’s support of Iraqi Kurdish rebels. In late 1974, Hussein directed the Ba’athist government to improve relations with Iran, which led to the March 6, 1975, Algiers Agreement and two additional treaties also signed in 1975.

The Algiers Agreement aimed to settle maritime and territorial disputes in Iran’s Shatt al-Arab region and Iraq’s Khuzestan Province. Additionally, Iran agreed to end its support of the Kurdish Rebellion. After the agreement was signed, foreign relations significantly improved, ending almost a decade of isolation. The diplomatic success significantly expanded Hussein’s power.

After the signing of the Algiers Agreement, Hussein started an aggressive military modernization program, buying billions of dollars of hardware from the Soviet Union and France. In just 15 years, Iraq would build one of the largest conventional militaries in the world. In 1976, Hussein was named the General of the Iraqi Armed Forces while continuing to hold the office of vice president.

Around the same time, President al-Bakr’s health significantly deteriorated. Behind the veil, Hussein was already wielding presidential power and controlling the economy, the military, and foreign affairs. He used that control to become a feared strongman and started cultivating an inner circle of loyalists to take full control of the Ba’athist Party and the leadership of Iraq.

In 1979, President al-Bakr started negotiating with Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad for unification. If an agreement were reached, al-Assad would become the deputy leader of the combined nations, stripping Hussein of his power. On July 16, 1979, in what could be described as a one-man coup d’etat brought on by a health crisis, Hussein forced al-Bakr to resign and became the President of Iraq. Negotiations with Syria about unification immediately ended.

Despite the signing of the Algiers Agreement and the subsequent treaties, relations between Iraq and Iran were strained. The new leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, repeatedly called for the overthrow of the Iraqi Ba’athist government in jingoistic speeches due to Iraq’s embrace of secularism. The newly minted President Hussein praised the Iranian Revolution and Khomeini and called for renewed Iraqi and Iranian friendship and a mutual pledge to stop interfering with each other’s internal affairs.

The call for better relations was hollow and fell on deaf ears, and the diplomatic situation between Iran and Iraq quickly crumbled. On March 8, 1980, Iran recalled its ambassador and demanded that Iraq do the same. The next day, Iraq symbolically declared Iranian Ambassador Fereydoun Adamyat persona non grata.

Before the Islamic Revolution, Iran’s GDP was the largest among the 36 U.N.-recognized Greater Middle East nations. It had over 300,000 active-duty military personnel and was deep into a modernization program, buying billions of dollars of weapons from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union.

One of the immediate outcomes of Khomeini’s rise to power was the embargo of parts, munitions, and other materials to maintain Iran’s military. Arrests and executions eliminated skilled and loyal military officers and pushed their subordinates into hiding. Iran’s military readiness was falling apart.

To deal with dissenters and political enemies, Khomeini created a personal guard, the paramilitary Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), which would go on to be the terrorism-supporting arm of modern-day Iran. On April 30, 1980, Khomeini ordered the creation of the Organization for Mobilization of the Oppressed, better known as the Basij. The all-volunteer paramilitary was comprised of poorly trained and led men, most will little education. Often referred to as the 20 Million, during speeches, Khomeini would boast that with the Basij, no nation could defeat Iran.

During the first eight months of 1980, Iran and Iraq accused each other of over 1,200 border incidents, airspace violations, and maritime disputes. Hussein now viewed the Algiers Agreement as a mistake and recognized that he could use the post-revolution chaos in Iran to his advantage. He also saw an opportunity to engage the U.S. through the enemy of my enemy is my friend politics.

Hussein believed he had an opportunity to quickly take back the disputed Khuzestan Providence and its oil fields while expanding Iraq’s access to the Persian Gulf. On September 10, 1980, using the open issues of the Algiers Agreement as a casus belli, Iraq launched a limited military operation to seize the territories of Zain al-Qaws and Saif Saad. Twelve days later, the limited operation turned into a full-scale invasion of Iran, starting an eight-year war.

The Soviet Union becomes stuck in an Afghanistan quagmire

After the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and completed its coup d’etat, Soviet troops launched a series of large-scale attacks in the central, northern, and western states of Afghanistan through 1985. While these large-scale attacks sometimes brought about temporary stability, the mujahadeen would retreat into Pakistan or deep into the mountains and return as soon as the Soviets withdrew.

Moscow had expected the Afghanistan army to do the majority of the fighting, with Soviet forces providing intelligence, logistics, close air support, and artillery. The opposite happened, with the local military units providing little support and frequently running from battles.

Soviet troops supported by the KGB and Afghanistan KHAD instituted brutal programs against the civilian population to try and find mujahadeen fighters, which only built more support for the Islamic rebel forces. However, the war was essentially a stalemate, and fighting against Soviet brutality made for odd bedfellows. With Western and Middle Eastern reporters embedded with mujahadeen, popular support in the Middle East, Europe, the U.S., and China rapidly grew. the mystique of chiseled-faced tribesmen bravely fighting against Russian tanks and helicopters on horseback was embraced as a noble struggle.

For Europe and the U.S., the fight within Afghanistan was seen as an extension of the Cold War. The Reagan Administration sought to destabilize the Soviet Union economically and diplomatically, with the Department of Defense budget swelling to $1.7 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Mujahideen fighters in Afghanistan, 1985
Credit – Erwin Franzen, Creative Commons 2.0-4.0

The mujahadeen and other factions aligned against the Soviets were backed by the U.S., United Kingdom, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and China. Funding for Operation Cyclone, operated by the CIA, dramatically increased in 1986 and included the supply of Stinger antiaircraft missiles to the Afghan resistance. The Stinger provided SHORAD capabilities to the mujahadeen, tipping the balance of power on the battlefield. Russian aviation was practically grounded, and without air support, the number of Russian casualties increased significantly.

With the Soviet military stuck in an Afghanistan quagmire, another seemingly unrelated event would alter the course of world history. On April 26, 1986, after a failed safety test on Reactor 4 at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, technician Leonid Toptunov pushed the AZ-5 button meant to scram the reactor. Instead, due to a design flaw, Reactor 4 exploded, causing the worst nuclear accident in world history.

A combination of a failing and stagnant economy, the inability to keep up with Western defense spending, the war in Afghanistan, and the economic cost of cleaning up the Chornobyl disaster put the Soviet Union irreversibly on the path toward bankruptcy. The metaphorical rusting of the Iron Curtain and the Glasnost programs introduced by Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev permitted public criticism of the ongoing war in Afghanistan. Additionally, Gorbachev had been looking for an offramp since becoming Premier in 1985.

In 1987, with popular support for the war plummeting, Moscow announced it would start a controlled two-year withdrawal. For some, the announcement brought hope of a renewed Afghanistan. However, thousands of Islamic fighters didn’t come to fight for liberation. They choose to go to Afghanistan in response to the fatwas calling for the protection of historic Islamic lands from infidel invaders.

For some, like Osama bin Laden, the Soviet withdrawal announcement wasn’t the beginning of the end; it was the end of the beginning. What almost no one knew was bin Laden was already laying the foundation to form a new organization called Al Qaeda.

The United States embraces the Iran-Iraq War and pushes for a stalemate

In the first three months of the Iran-Iraq War, Iraq achieved multiple successes on the battlefield before momentum shifted. With relations already firmly established, Iraq was able to freely buy weapons and ammunition from the Soviet Union, France, and China. While the U.S. didn’t directly supply weapons to Baghdad, Washington lifted dual-use sanctions, which permitted the sale of civilian technology and heavy equipment that could be easily pressed into military service. And while declassified records show that no single nation provided Baghdad with the resources and technology to produce chemical weapons, companies from France, the U.S., West Germany, the U.K., and the Netherlands sold dual-use components, with France selling precursor chemicals to support the production of Sarin nerve gas.

Iran had deeper problems and could only find support from North Korea for weapons and ammunition and one other very unusual ally. Israel provided spare parts and ammunition for the existing Iranian arsenal of U.S. military technology. Tel Aviv believed that if Iraq won the war, its victory could empower Syria, which would present a broader threat to their sovereignty and stability.

Season 3, Episode 15 of the American TV Show American DaD – This Clip accurately explains the Iran-Contra Affair

While those were the publicly visible relationships, the U.S. was supporting both combatants. From 1981 to 1986, the CIA sold weapons to Iran through French shell companies. The profits were given to the Contras, who used the money to buy weapons to fight against the Soviet-backed Sandinista government in Nicaragua. When the Iran-Contra Affair was exposed, it blew up into a political scandal.

In 1986, Iranian forces captured the Fao Peninsula in Iraq, sending jolts through the West. Concern grew that Iran could win the war, spreading racial Islam across the Middle East. Due to support through the Iran-Contra Affair, Tehran started sharing military intelligence with Washington, which was already receiving military intelligence from Iraq. The 1986 Iran-initiated Tanker War didn’t help Tehran’s cause, and Kuwait and Saudi Arabia boosted military support to Iraq. To tip the balance of power back, Washington started sharing the Iranian military plans with Baghdad.

Iraq regained the initiative, pushed Iranian forces out of the Fao Peninsula, and on August 20, 1988, United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 ended the Iran-Iraq War. While both nations were left economically devastated, the Iranian military was an empty shell. One to two million people died, including at least 500,000 soldiers. The majority of the military dead were members of the Iranian Basij. Among the dead were at least 60,000 killed by chemical weapons, including 50,000 Iranians and 10,000 Iraqi Kurds.

For Hussein, the last eight years allowed him to transform into a brutal and feared dictator. With the war against Iran over, Hussein set his sights on a new military objective.

Tomorrow’s installment: The Soviets withdraw from Afghanistan, and Osama bin Laden becomes a cult of personality.

Read Part Three: The complex history of Islamic extremism and Russia’s contribution to the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS

National

Only one-third of ships attacked by Houthi militants have Israeli connections

[WBHG News 24 – Kirkland] – Since November 19, Houthi militants supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) have pirated, attempted to board, or fired missiles and drones at 17 cargo vessels, claiming the maritime disruption was in support of Hamas by targeting Israeli-owned ships and ships sailing to Israel. Over the weekend, the Houthis expanded the attacks to include vessels owned by the United States and the United Kingdom due to airstrikes on militant positions in northern Yemen.

An analysis of the cargo vessels that have been attacked shows that 35% have Israeli connections, and only one may have been en route to an Israeli port. Two of the six vessels with Israeli connections that were attacked were struck by Shahed-136 one-way drones likely launched from Iran. 

Ships with Israeli Connections

Central Park – November 26, 2023

The Central Park is a tanker vessel that was en route from Morocco and sailing to India when it was boarded by Houthi militants in the Gulf of Aden. With assistance from the USS Mason, control of the vessel was restored, and the crew was freed. During the military operation, several antiship missiles were fired at the vessel. The Central Park continued to India without further incident. The ship is flagged in Liberia and owned by the United Kingdom company  Zodiac Maritime. Israeli billionaire Idan Offer is a part-owner.

Chem Pluto – December 23, 2023

The Chem Pluto is a chemical tanker that was en route from Saudi Arabia to India and was hit by a Shahed-136 one-way drone likely launched from Iran. The ship’s crew was able to control the fire after the incident. The vessel is flagged in Liberia and owned by a Japanese company. The management company, Ace Quantum Chemical Tankers, is owned by Israeli billionaire Idan Offer.

 CMA CGM Symi – November 25, 2023

The CMA CGM Symi is a container ship that departed the United Arab Emirates and was en route to China. The ship was struck by a drone, likely a Shahed-136 one-way UAV launched from Iran. The vessel received light damage to the stern and continued to Xiamen. The vessel is flagged in Malta and owned by a Japanese company. The management company, Ace Quantum Chemical Tankers, is owned by Israeli billionaire Idan Offer.

CMA CGM TAGE – January 3, 2024

The CMA CGM TAGE is a container ship that departed Singapore and was en route to Egypt. Houthi militants fired antiship missiles at the vessel, claiming it was sailing to “occupied Palestine.” The ship is flagged in Malta and owned by Eastern Pacific Shipping of Singapore, which is owned by Israeli billionaire Idan Offer.

Galaxy Leader – November 19, 2023

The Galaxy Leader is a roll-on roll-off automotive carrier that departed Turkey and was en route to Indonesia when it was boarded by Houthi militants and pirated. The ship is flagged in the Bahamas and owned by Nippon Yusen and Ray Shipping of Japan. Rami Unger of Israel is part owner.

Strinda – December 11, 2023

The Strinda is a chemical and oil tanker vessel that departed Malaysia with a destination of Italy via Suez in AIS. Houthi militants claim that the ship was sailing to Israel. Cached port records indicated the Strinda was scheduled to arrive in Haifa on January 4, which was deleted before the attack. An antiship cruise missile struck the vessel, causing a fire that was controlled by the crew. It reportedly was carrying a cargo of palm kernel oil. The ship is flagged in Norway and owned by a Norwegian company.

Ships with no Israeli Connections

Al Jasrah- December 15, 2023

The Al Jasrah is a container ship that departed Greece and was en route to Singapore. It was hit by a one-way drone, causing a significant fire. The ship is flagged in Liberia and owned by a Kuwaiti company.

Ardmore Encounter – December 13, 2023

The Ardmore Encounter is a tanker that departed India and was en route to  Sweden via a port of call in the Netherlands. Two missiles were fired at the ship, and were intercepted by the U.S. Navy. The ship is flagged in the Marshall Islands and owned by a United Arab Emirates company. The vessel was previously owned by an Israeli investor, who sold their interest in June 2023.

Blaamanen – December 23, 2023

The Blaamanen is a crude oil tanker that departed Romania and was en route to India. Four drones that were launched at the ship were intercepted by the USS Laboon. The ship is flagged in Norway, owned by a Norwegian company,  and management by a company in Singapore.

Gibraltar Eagle – January 15, 2024

The Gigraltar Eagle is a bulk carrier that was sailing from South Korea with a load of steel en route to Suez, Egypt. An antiship missile struck the vessel, damaging a cargo hold, but it did not start a fire. The ship is flagged in the Marshall Islands and owned by a United States company.

Khalissa – January 12, 2024

The oil tanker Khalissa was sailing from Russia with an unknown destination in AIS. Houthi rebels fired at least one antiship missile at the vessel, which hit the water approximately 400 meters away. The ship is flagged in Panama and was previously owned by a company in the United Kingdom. It is now part of the sanction-running Russian shadow fleet.

Maersk Gibraltar – December 14, 2023

The Maersk Gibraltar is a container ship that departed Oman and was en route to Saudi Arabia. Antiship missiles were fired at the vessel and missed. Houthi militants continued to threaten the vessel with further attacks if it did not sail to their port of control. The ship is flagged in Hong Kong and is owned by the Danish company Maersk.

MSC Clara – December 18, 2023

The MSC Clara is a container ship that departed Saudi Arabia and was en route to the United Arab Emirates. The ship reported seeing an explosion “nearby,” but was not damaged. The vessel is flagged in Panama and owned by a Swiss company.

Platinum III – December 15, 2023

The Platinum III is a container ship that departed Kenya and was en route to Saudi Arabia. An antiship missile hit it as it transited the Red Sea near Bab e-Mandeb and diverted to Djibouti. The vessel is flagged in Liberia and owned by a Swiss company.

Sai Baba – December 23, 2023

The Sai Baba is a crude oil tanker that departed from Russia with an unknown destination in AIS. Two antiship missiles were fired at the vessel and missed. The ship is part of the Russian sanction-running shadow fleet flagged in India and owned by a company or private interest in Gabon.

Swan Atlantic – December 18, 2023

The Swan Atlantic is a tanker ship that departed Saudi Arabia and was en route to Réunion Island in the Indian Ocean, controlled by France. The vessel was hit by an antiship missile but continued to its destination. The ship is flagged in the Cayman Islands and owned by a Norwegian company.

Breaking News, Health and Lifestyle, National

Eradicated in 1979, community spread of polio returns to the United States

[Albany, N.Y.] – MTN The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) and the Rockland County Department of Health reported the first case of community transmission polio since 1979 in the United States, hospitalizing a New York state resident.

The person was identified as a young adult with no travel history outside of the United States and was hospitalized with paralytic polio. The individual has been released from the hospital, but officials did not indicate if they are experiencing long-term complications.

The NYSDOH reported the Centers for Disease Control sequenced the virus infecting the person and identified it as the Sabin type 2 virus. “This is indicative of a transmission chain from an individual who received the oral polio vaccine, which is no longer authorized or administered in the U.S.,” the official stated.

“This suggests that the virus may have originated in a location outside of the U.S. where the oral polio vaccine is administered since…strains cannot emerge from inactivated vaccines.”

Polio still exists in several countries, and the U.S. Department of Defense and the CDC recommend a poliovirus booster for anyone traveling to those regions. Polio is highly contagious, with 98% of cases presenting as asymptomatic.

Most people who become symptomatic get mild flu-like symptoms such as fatigue, fever, headache, stiffness, muscle pain, and vomiting. The poliomyelitis virus thrives in the gut, and it can take 30 days before an infected person become symptomatic. During the incubation period when someone is infected, the carrier is contagious. This creates silent community transmission that can rapidly spread. Transmission through common swimming areas and in warm, damp areas is enhanced. In the 1950s and 1960s, communities would close swimming pools and other common areas and go into lockdown to stop the spread.

In less than 2% of cases, poliomyelitis moves into the nervous system and spine, which can cause extreme weakness and paralysis, occasionally leading to death. Symptoms are worse for people who are older.

In 1953 over 30,000 Americans were hospitalized, and 3,200 died from a surge in polio cases, which led to the development of a vaccine that was hailed a miracle of science in 1955. Polio was declared eradicated in the United States in 1979, and the use of attenuated live virus vaccinations for poliomyelitis ended in 2000.

“Many of you may be too young to remember polio, but when I was growing up, this disease struck fear in families, including my own,” Rockland County Executive Ed Day said. “The fact that it is still around decades after the vaccine was created shows you just how relentless it is. Do the right thing for your child and the greater good of your community and have your child vaccinated now.”

The NYSDOH is coordinating with the Rockland County Department of Health and the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYCDOHMH) to continue the case investigation, proactively respond, and protect communities against the spread through urging vaccination, which this multi-agency, county-led effort will support.

Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

988 rolls out as national suicide and crisis lifeline number

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – MTN – You can now dial 988 in the United States for assistance with: thoughts of suicide, Mental health crises, substance use crises, or any other kind of emotional distress.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) adopted the new, nationwide, easy-to-remember, three-digit number in 2020. As of July 16, 2022, people experiencing a mental health crisis, or those worried about a loved one going through a crisis, can call, text, or chat 988 via cell phone, landline, or voice-over-internet device and be connected to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline. The current NSPL number (1-800-273-TALK (8255)) will continue to be in service; the new three-digit number is intended to be easier to remember and access in times of crisis.

Depending on which area code communication to 988 is made from, the connection will be routed to one of three designated crisis call center hubs. This is the newest addition to the state’s network of crisis care providers and doesn’t replace existing centers.

Washington is one of 21 states that have passed legislation linked to the launch of the new 988 system. Only two other states have joined Washington in legislating a funding source for the services in their states. Washington established a telcom tax as part of House Bill 1477 (E2SHB 1477), which also outlines standards, rules, oversight, integration, follow-up, and accountability.

Ultimately, the 988 system is designed to expand mobile crisis response teams, including trained mental health professionals, to respond to individuals around the state. Sponsors of the bill have voiced their hope that such teams can eliminate the need for armed law enforcement to respond. However, there are still times that activation of an EMS or law enforcement response may be necessary, such as in the case of an active suicide attempt.

Additionally, part of the legislation requires health insurance providers within the state to establish, by January 1, 2023, a system making next-day appointments available to their enrollees with urgent, symptomatic behavioral health conditions. Further, a Crisis Response Improvement Strategy Committee has been established to develop recommendations to the governor’s office and legislature to support additional needs as identified and outlined in HB 1477.

If you or someone you care for needs resources for mental health crises, suicidal thoughts, substance use crises, or other emotional distress, the below services are always available.

Suicide Prevention Lifeline: 988

Veteran’s Crisis Line: Call 988, then press 1, or text 838255

Teen Link: 1.866.TEENLINK (833.6546)

The Trevor Project: 1.866.488.7386

Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

The arrival of 2022 brings an Omicron tidal wave and the wrong message about the severity

1 Comment
◼ Covid hospitalizations have surged 32% in Washington since December 20
◼ University of Washington Medicine suspends elective surgeries through January 14
◼ 25% to 30% of statewide COVID tests are positive
◼ Washington reported a record number of new COVID cases yesterday
◼ A UK report tracking the progress of hospitalized Omicron patients found 7 percent died within 28 days of admission, similar to hospitalized patients in South Africa
◼ Seattle Public Schools delays class restart on Monday to mass test students and teachers

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Confusion is growing among Washingtonians who will return to work and school on Monday as pundits, health experts, and government leaders send mixed messages about the COVID variant Omicron.

The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) reported a new record for confirmed COVID cases on Christmas Even – 6,140. A literal and metaphorical perfect storm of the Christmas holiday, severe weather closing many Western Washington test locations for days, and laboratories becoming overwhelmed, have created an incomplete picture of new case growth.

The University of Washington announced beginning on Jan. 4, they will only test people who are symptomatic or have had close contact with a previously confirmed COVID case. Testing for work or travel requirements will no longer be supported.

The challenge facing testing labs is how samples are processed. During previous COVID waves, samples were tested as a pool, which increases efficiency. Technicians take four or five partial samples from individual test swabs and combine them together. The combined samples are PCR tested and if the result was negative, the individual samples tested together are marked negative. If the pool came back positive, each sample within the pool would be tested to identify the positive results. According to the UW Virology Lab, test samples this past week have been 25% to 30% positive, making pool testing ineffective.

Every Region in Washington State Has High or Extreme New Case Transmission

RegionCountiesPopulation12+ Fully Vaccinated16+ with BoostersCOVID Cases 7 Day MA
EastAdams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, Whitman705,47549.9%34.5%130.4
NorthIsland, San Juan, Skagit, Whatcom474,35062.5%40.8%201.1
North CentralChelan, Douglas, Grant, Okanogan272,12556.3%38.0%140.9
NorthwestClallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, Mason451,80059.8%43.2%214.7
Puget SoundKing, Pierce, Snohomish4,054,80067.2%39.9%403.7
South CentralColumbia, Franklin, Kittitas, Walla Walla, Yakima694,05051.9%33.9%153.6
SouthwestClark, Cowlitz, Klickitat, Skamania660,20056.6%36.5%214.8
WestGrays Harbor, Lewis, Pacific, Thurston474,07557.1%38.9%296.3
Data provided by the Washington State Department of Health on December 30, 2021 – vaccination rate data is through December 28, 2021, and booster data is through December 29, 2021

In South King County one test site in Auburn reported 49% of tests were positive for COVID. The total number of tests being run decreased significantly this past week due to weather and staff-related closures of test sites in Western Washington.

While headlines and soundbites describe Omicron as mild, an important detail is being left out – only if you’re vaccinated, boosted, and otherwise healthy. As the United States entered the last day of 2021, more than 90,000 Americans were hospitalized for COVID and more than 10,000 are being hospitalized each day.

Headlines around the world this afternoon announced, Omicron hospitalization risk lower than delta, vaccines provide good protection, U.K. study says. The U.K. Health Agency SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England Technical briefing: Update on hospitalisation and vaccine effectiveness for Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) was published in full on Dec. 31.

“The previous finding of reduced overall risk of hospitalisation for Omicron compared to Delta is confirmed by the updated Study 1. In addition, both studies find a substantial reduction in risk of hospitalisation for Omicron cases after 3 doses of vaccine compared to those who are unvaccinated, with overlapping estimate ranges. Both studies have been run on relatively small numbers of hospitalised cases and will require iteration. Despite the estimated reduction in hospitalisation risk and preserved vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation, the very high number of Omicron cases means that there may still be large numbers of admissions to hospital.”

In August 2021, King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin mentioned the N95 Project as a trusted source for N95 masks. A check on the website showed that a 50 count box of N95 masks are available for $40.00, and a package of 10 count children sized KN95 masks are available for $10.50. We recommend wearing N95 or KN95 masks indoors as they provide the best protection against COVID when properly fitted.

NO PROMOTIONAL CONSIDERATION HAS BEEN GIVEN OR REQUESTED FROM PROJECT N95 OR ANY MANUFACTURER OF MASKS

CNBC reported this morning, “The latest data from the U.K. Health Security Agency found the risk of hospitalization for people infected with omicron is about a third of that posed by the delta variant.”

This appears to be good news but ignores multiple factors. First and foremost, this is more than double the relative risk that South Africa has reported. This is likely due to South Africa having a much younger and relatively more healthy population than Europe and North America.

Considering the potential impact on the United States, the United Kingdom has a much higher vaccination and booster shot rate. According to the U.K. Department of Health, 82% of all residents 12 and older were fully vaccinated through Dec. 22. Additionally, more than two-thirds of UK residents 12 and older who are eligible for a booster shot, have received one. Booster doses were recently introduced in the United States for adolescents 16 to 17 years old and are expected to expand to children 12 to 15 years old as early as next week.

Further analysis of United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) data indicated only the New England states have a similar percentage of vaccinated residents. Among all US states, only Vermont and Maine had similar vaccination and booster rates to the UK. Hospitalization data in the first four hot spots of Hawaii, New York, Florida, and Washington do indicate that vaccines are helping to keep more people out of the hospital, but are not encouraging.

Vaccination Rates of United Kingdom Countries vs Most Vaccinated US States

UK Country12+ Fully Vaccinated12+ with BoosterMost Vaccinated US States12+ Fully Vaccinated18+ with Booster
Scotland84%58%Rhode Island85%46%
Wales83%55%Vermont84%54%
England82%55%Connecticut84%41%
Northern Ireland81%48%Maine84%48%
Washington78%41%
Texas67%31%
California77%36%
Florida74%31%
United Kingdom vaccination rate data from the BBC, December 23, 2021, using National Health Service data from December 19 to December 22, compared to the United States from the CDC, December 31, 2021 – Texas and California added to provide a benchmark among the states with the largest populations

In Washington, the most vaccinated counties are six to ten percent below the United Kingdom. San Juan County is the closest, with 77% full vaccinated and 58% boosted. The least vaccinated counties are 50 to 55 percent below the UK.

Vaccination Rates in Five Largest Washington Counties

CountyPopulationPopulation VaccinatedVaccinated with Boosters
King2,293,30074%43%
Pierce917,10055%34%
Snohomish844,40064%36%
Spokane527,60053%34%
Clark512,80057%36%
Data from the Washington State Department of Health, December 30, 2021

New York City is about a week ahead of Seattle in the progression of Omicron, and from Dec. 22 to Dec. 30, hospitalizations for COVID more than doubled, while the number of COVID patients in the ICU almost doubled. With hospitals in Washington state already full and reports of Idaho Panhandle hospitals once again being overwhelmed with coronavirus cases, hospitalists are growing concerned that medical facilities will be overrun.

Miami-Dade County in Florida is seven to ten days behind Seattle. According to the New York Times, Florida has the fourth fastest-growing hospitalization rate in the country outpacing New York and Washington. Officials in Hawaii have requested 700 medical personnel from FEMA as hospitalizations surge. So many people are sickened from Omicron that inter-island air travel and ambulance services on O’hau are starting to be impacted. Officials in Maui announced that a booster shot is now required to be considered fully vaccinated.

The Dec. 31 report from the UK Health Agency also showed alarming data for clinical outcomes for people once they are hospitalized. The study reviewed 815 individuals with laboratory-confirmed Omicron cases where were admitted to the hospital within the last 28 days. The median age was 45.5 years old and 57 died from COVID-related illness – a seven-percent mortality rate among hospitalized patients. The age of those who died was between 41 and 99, and the median time was just five days after collecting their test sample for genomic sequencing.

South Africa has observed similar outcomes among the hospitalized. The NICD has reported 848 COVID-related deaths in the last 14 days, including 81 Friday. In Gauteng Province, The number of hospitalized COVID patients is up almost 300% from a month ago – 85 percent are unvaccinated. As Omicron is progressing among the hospitalized the ratio of patients on oxygen, in the ICU, and on ventilators is higher or equal to November, when the wards were full of Delta patients.

On Dec. 20, the WSDoH reported there were 610 hospitalized COVID patients in Washington – the lowest number since August. On Dec. 28, the number had leaped to 897. Harborview Medical Center in Seatle went from three COVID patients to 27 in the same time period.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control has contributed to the confusion while outraging the medical community. Leaders announced on Dec. 27 new guidelines which shorten quarantine and isolation time in half for asymptomatic and mild cases of COVID. As part of the announcement, the CDC said they were following available data. When pressed to present studies or supporting evidence during a Dec. 29 media briefing, a CDC spokesperson indicated data was not available. The foundation of the new recommendations is dependent on the honor system, and that people will follow the guidelines, including wearing a properly fitted N95, KN95, KN94 mask for an additional five days.

If You Test Positive for COVID – Isolate

Everyone, regardless of vaccination statusStay home for 5 days.
If you have no symptoms or your symptoms are resolving after 5 days, you can leave your house.

Continue to wear a mask around others for 5 additional days.

If you have a fever, continue to stay home until your fever resolves.

If You Were Exposed to Someone with COVID – Quarantine

If you:
Have been boosted

OR
Completed the primary series of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine within the last 6 months

OR
Completed the primary series of the Jassen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine within the last 2 months		Wear a mask around others for 10 days.

Test on day 5, if possible.

If you develop symptoms get a test and stay home.

But, If You Were Exposed to Someone with COVID – Quarantine

If you:
Completed the primary series of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine over 6 months ago and are not boosted

OR
Completed the primary series of Jassen/Johnson & Johnson over 2 months ago and are not boosted

OR
Are unvaccinated		Stay home for 5 days. After that continue to wear a mask around others for 5 additional days.

If you can’t quarantine you must wear a mask for 10 days.

Test on day 5 if possible.

If you develop symptoms get a test and stay home

Among nations dealing with surges of Omicron cases, only South Africa has adopted similar isolation and quarantine requirements. In politically charged low vaccination rate counties across the United States, it is highly unlikely these guidelines will be followed.

Seattle Public Schools announced they were suspending all classes on Monday so that staff, faculty, and students can get COVID testing. The district was able to secure 60,000 tests and designated several schools at mass testing sites. Social media was full of questions from parents in other large school districts such as Lake Washington and Bellevue, wondering why a similar pause wasn’t being initiated. The Northshore School District has been pool testing the student body for months. A program that has been very effective at keeping the number of cases within the district down.

The continued messaging of Omicron being mild is frustrating hospital leaders. “There are very, very few people who get the common cold who end up in the hospital,” explained Hilton Raethel, Healthcare Association of Hawaii’s President and CEO in an interview with KHON. “And our hospital counts are going up every single day and, again, the common cold generally does not land you in the hospital — COVID can and COVID will.”

Breaking News, Health and Lifestyle

WHO holds emergency meeting as multiple nations implement Africa travel restrictions over new COVID variant concerns

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) World health officials are alarmed due to a new fast-spreading Covid-19 variant in South Africa causing the World Health Organization to hold an emergency meeting as Asian stock markets plunged and the Dow Jones futures dropped 735 points.

The new variant, so far identified as B.1.1.529 has not been named, but the WHO is expected to assign it a name today, likely the Nu variant.

The variant was first detected in Botswana but has quickly spread in South Africa and two travel-related cases have been confirmed in Hong Kong. Botswana officials stated the four detected cases are among fully vaccinated individuals. in South Africa, cases are increasing rapidly in Gauteng Province, home to Johannesburg and one of the largest air travel hubs on the continent. In the span of a week, new cases went from a cluster to growing so fast scientists believe it has achieved community spread.

Officials in the U.K. are taking no chances. Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced that six African nations – South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, and Eswatini – have been placed on the red list, placing strict rules on air travel.

Starting on Friday, any non-UK and Irish residents will be banned from entering England if they have been in the red list countries in the last ten days. Beginning Sunday, British nationals who have been in those countries will be required to quarantine upon entry. Additionally, health officials in the UK are asking anyone who has traveled to the impacted regions to get a PCR test as soon as possible.

South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said the travel restrictions “seems to have been rushed,” in a statement where he expressed concern over the impact on tourism and business.

Israel and Singapore joined the U.K. early on Friday and added Mozambique to their travel restriction lists.

New case rate growth is much faster than Delta, which indicates the potential for a very high R0, or “r-naught,” which is the measure of how transmissible a communicable disease is. In little more than two weeks, B.1.1.529 has grown to almost 90% of all detected cases in South Africa.

According to Johns Hopkins University, only 24.11% of South Africans are fully vaccinated which would aid a new variant to spread unchecked. Health officials in South Africa and with the WHO are concerned that the new variant is circulating more widely than current data suggests.

The B.1.1.529 has more than 50 mutations, which is significantly higher than any other viable variant previously seen. More than 30 of those alternations are changes to the spike protein, which is the mechanism that enables the SARS-CoV-2 virus to identify hosts cell and is the primary target of the body’s immune response.

B.1.1.529 has more than twice the number of mutations as the Delta variant

In a report published by the Journal Nature, Penny Moore, a virologist at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, indicated that computer models suggest not only does B.1.1.529 have mutations that are already known to aid in evading an immune response from B cells but could fool the body’s T cells.

B cells do the yeoman’s work of fighting virus infections, but have a shorter memory and can be tricked by a smaller set of mutations. T cells are the second line of immune defense with better memory and capabilities to spot mutations. When T cells identify a threat that was initially missed, they summon B cells to aid in the response. This is how disease acquired and vaccine immune response works. If the new variant is capable of evading T cells then the benefits of vaccine immunity would be reduced and disease acquired immunity could be rendered ineffective.

Disease acquired and vaccine immunity works the same. Antibodies bind to the spike proteins preventing the virus from entering cells so it can replicate. If the antibodies can’t bind to spike mutations and the mutations still enable the SARS-CoV-2 virus to identify host cells, the virus can spread inside the body unchecked causing a Covid-19 infection.

Another challenge is if these findings are accurate – the new variant may be capable of outmaneuvering monoclonal antibodies – blunting a critical early treatment.

One mutation is helping scientists track the spread of the new variant. A specific mutation to the spike protein enables researchers to identify the variant through a standard PCR test instead of waiting for genomic sequencing.

Currently, there are more questions than answers. Researchers know the new variant is spreading rapidly in South Africa and causing a new surge. What is not known is if the rapid spread is being driven by a mostly unvaccinated population or because it is more transmissible. It also is not known if the new variant causes equal, more severe, or mild illness. There is no data about the capability the new antivirals Molnupiravir and Paxlovid could have in fighting B.1.1.529.

It is important to note that Beta, Gamma, and Mu were previous variants found to have high resistance to vaccine and disease acquired immunity but weren’t very transmissible. All three variants faded out because Delta was more contagious. In the simplest terms, Delta outbred the other variants. A key requirement for a new variant to spread rapidly would be the capability to outrun Delta.

Most important of all, there is no concrete scientific evidence that B1.1.529 is evading viral vector or mRNA-based vaccines. Previous variants have taken months to identify while this one was found, sequenced, and placed under investigation in a matter of days.

No cases have been detected in North America or any United States territories.

Five Facts, Health and Lifestyle, National

7-year old Liza Scott selling lemonade to support her own brain surgery

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Five Fast Facts

@malcontentnews

##fyp ##foryourpage ##healthcare ##news ##liza ##unitedstates ##healthinsurance Liza Scott is 7 years old and funding her own brain surgery ##wtf

♬ original sound – TheMalcontent
  • Seven-year old Liza Scott opened up a lemonade stand outside her parent’s bakery in Homewood, Alabama so she could buy herself toys and some high heeled shoes she wanted
  • About the same time she opened the stand, Liza started having seizures
  • Her mother learned that she has cerebral malformations that will need multiple brain surgeries at Boston’s Children Hospital
  • Despite owning her own business and having health insurance, her mother learned uncovered expenses and copays will be financially devastated
  • Liza told her mother she would keep selling lemonade to help fund her own surgery
  • When it comes to the looming surgery, Liza said, “I’m not worried, but I’m afraid.”

HOMEWOOD, Ala. — Liza Scott, 7, started a lemonade stand at her mom’s bakery last summer so she could buy some frills like toys and sequined high-heel shoes. The bouncy little girl is still in business months later, yet the money is going toward something entirely different: surgery on her brain.

Last month, doctors determined a series of seizures that Liza began suffering were caused by cerebral malformations that needed repair, said her mother, Elizabeth Scott. Always eager to help out and with an eye toward entrepreneurship after a childhood spent around a small business, the little girl volunteered to help raise money for her upcoming operation.

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