The Chinese government has ordered domestic airlines to stop accepting deliveries of Boeing airliners in retaliation for U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to a report in Bloomberg.
China also directed carriers to stop buying airline parts and other related components from all U.S. companies.
Boeing (BA) dropped 2.36% on the news, closing down -3.76 at 155.52. At the time of publication, Boeing had not responded to our request for comment. Airbus SE climbed 1.14% (+0.45), closing at 39.92.
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the situation on his personal social media network, Truth Social, saying, “Interestingly, they [China] just reneged on the big Boeing deal, saying that they will ‘not take possession’ of fully committed to aircraft.”
On April 8, Boeing reported that 130 commercial aircraft, including 105 737s, were delivered in the first quarter of 2025. Boeing does not provide a breakdown of deliveries by customer or country. Spirit AeroSystems builds the 737 fuselages in Wichita, Kansas, and they are shipped by train to Renton, Washington, for final assembly. Boeing employees approximately 67,800 people in Washington state between its Commercial Airplane and Defense, Space, and Security Programs.
During the first Trump administration in 2018, the U.S. aircraft manufacturer opened the Boeing Completion Center in Zhoushan, China, where aircraft receive their interiors and airline livery before delivery to Southeast Asian customers, including China. Southeast Asia is Boeing’s second-largest market, behind North America.
China and Russia Attempts to Build Competing Aircraft
China started domestic development of the COMAC C919 in 2008, a passenger plane similar to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737-MAX. Flight testing started in 2017, and Eastern China Airlines took delivery of the first aircraft in 2023. The first commercial flight outside of China was in June 2024.
The largest customer is Tibet Airlines, which ordered 40 aircraft with high-altitude modifications. Russian domestic airlines were forced to cancel their orders for the C919 in 2022 and 2023 due to U.S. sanctions.
In 2015, China started developing the C929, a widebody jet to compete against the Airbus A330neo and the Boeing 787. Three years later, a memorandum was signed with Russia to jointly develop the plane, creating the China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Corporation Limited company (CRCAIC). The aircraft was dubbed the CR929 (China-Russia).
The COVID-19 pandemic and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine War stalled development, and in 2023, Russia quietly withdrew from the CRCAIC for economic reasons. The airplane was renamed the C929, with the first prototype expected in 2027.
Russia announced its intent to produce a 737 and A-320neo competitor in 2005, designated the Yakovlev MC-21. The first deliveries were supposed to be in 2017, but numerous delays have plagued development, including the COVID-19 pandemic and its reliance on U.S. jet engines. Eight prototypes with a lower-efficiency Russian engine have been built. Commercial deliveries with a Russian-designed engine that would match 2005 specifications are delayed to 2027.
The guardrails placed around the U.S. government by the Constitution have worked, sometimes poorly, for the last 236 years. In the last 24 hours, it’s become clear that the guardrails are falling apart, and the U.S. is in a Constitutional crisis. The Trump administration lit five fires today, attacking the separation of powers and the First, Fourth, Fifth, Eighth, and Fourteenth Amendments.
White House Defies a 9-0 Supreme Court Decision
On Sunday, the White House declared it would ignore a 9-0 Supreme Court order to return illegally deported Kilmar Abrego Garcia from the CERCOT prison compound in El Salvador.
The Trump administration defied the ruling, arguing that it does not have the authority to return Abrego Garcia after claiming without evidence on Saturday that he remained in El Salvador and is alive. Additionally, the White House claims that the language in the SCOTUS order, to provide “what steps, if any, Defendants have taken (and) will take, and when, to facilitate” Garcia’s return, was not a ruling to actually bring him back to the U.S.
In an Oval Office meeting with Nayib Bukele, the self-declared “world’s coolest” dictator and president of El Salvador, President Donald Trump said that his administration had no authority in the matter. Bukele added that he would not release Abrego Garcia to the U.S. or from CERCOT, calling him a criminal and terrorist.
Friday’s unanimous SCOTUS decision included three Trump appointees and conservative judges Samuel A. Alito, Jr., and Clarence Thomas.
Who is Kilmar Abrego Garcia
Kilmar Abrego Garcia, 29, came to the U.S. illegally in 2011 when he was 16 years old, fleeing the El Salvadorian gang Barrio 18. He joined his brother Ceasar in Maryland, who had fled to the U.S. four years earlier, and is now a U.S. citizen.
His brother helped him secure jobs in construction. In 2019, Abrego Garcia was arrested by local police and accused of being a member of MS-13. He denied any involvement with the Mexican gang and was transferred to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
He would tell an immigration judge that he was seeking political asylum, which the judge denied. He was accused by ICE of being a certified gang member of the MS-13 New York Chapter, based on information that came from a confidential informant used by county police. However, Abrego Garcia had never been to New York, and later, the informant was discredited.
In October 2019, he was denied asylum. Still, he was granted a protection order from being deported to El Salvador due to the “well-founded fear” of being a target of Barrio 18. ICE didn’t appeal the decision, and Abrego Garcia was issued a work permit and required to attend yearly check-ins with the Department of Homeland Security.
He was arrested on 12 March in Baltimore and, against court orders, deported to CERCOT in El Salvador, potentially locked up with the same gang members who were threatening him. Abrego Garcia was never convicted of any crime, is a married father of three to a U.S. citizen, and is in a metalworking union.
Turkish citizen Rumeysa Ozturk Snatched off a Massachusetts Street
On March 25, Rumeysa Ozturk was surrounded by six men dressed in black with faces covered and detained outside of her Somerville, Massachusetts apartment. She was accused of supporting Hamas, a foreign terrorist organization, and “glorifying and supporting terrorists who kill Americans.” The government also revoked her student visa.
The Washington Post revealed that prior to her arrest, the U.S. State Department found there was no evidence of her support of Hamas or antisemitism, and questioned the Trump Administration’s request for her detention.
A review of her profile on Canary Mission found that the only pro-Palestinian activity she engaged in was co-authoring an op-ed article in the Tufts University daily newspaper. Our review found the article, which is still available, never mentions Hamas nor glorifies terrorism or the killing of Americans. The statement called for Tufts’ leadership to “acknowledge the Palestinian genocide” and to divest from companies that support the university with ties to Israel, pointing out prior actions by the university and quoting its policies and code of conduct.
In St. Albans, Vermont, the Trump Administration argued the federal court had no jurisdiction over Ozturk, who is being held in Louisiana in defiance of a 25 March court order. During today’s hearing, U.S. District Judge William K. Sessions warned that the Department of Justice (DOJ) was approaching a Constitutional crisis in the matter.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio Declares Only the White House Dictates Foreign Policy
After today’s Oval Office meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tweeted, “The foreign policy of the United States is conducted by [the President of the United States — not by a court — and no court in the United States has a right to conduct the foreign policy of the United States. It’s that simple. End of story.”
Article II, Section 2, and Article III, Section 2, of the U.S. Constitution specify that Congress must approve many aspects of foreign policy, such as tariffs, and that federal courts and the Supreme Court have jurisdiction over some foreign policy matters.
White House Bars Associated Press Access in Defiance of Court Order
On 8 April, U.S. District Judge Trevor N. McFadden ruled that the White House could not retaliate against the Associated Press for refusing to use the name “Gulf of America.”
In his ruling, McFadden, a Trump appointee, wrote, “Under the First Amendment, if the Government opens its doors to some journalists—be it to the Oval Office, the East Room, or elsewhere—it cannot then shut those doors to other journalists because of their viewpoints. The Constitution requires no less.”
The AP was blocked from entering the Oval Office for today’s press conference with President Trump, his El Salvadorian counterpart, and other U.S. officials.
Trump Demands FCC “Maximum Fines” and to Pull the Broadcast License for CBS
On Sunday evening, the CBS news program 60 Minutes ran two stories unfavorable to the Trump administration. The first was about the administration’s policy toward Ukraine and included President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The second focused on Trump’s ambition to annex Greenland, if force by necessary.
After the show aired, a furious Trump demanded that FCC head Brendan Carr impose “maximum fines and punishment, which is substantial, for their unlawful and illegal behavior.”
In his lengthy screed, he accused the network of election interference in 2024. Previously, Trump accused CBS of unfair editing of an interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris and filed a $10 billion lawsuit. In February, the network released the unedited video with full transcripts, which revealed there were no abnormal edits or changes.
Trump then filed a $20 billion lawsuit against the network after 60 Minutes ran a story about a multiracial student band that had its concert canceled by the federal government on the grounds that it supported DEI.
Two Russian Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) armed with cluster munitions struck the Ukrainian city of Sumy, as the faithful traditionally walked to Palm Sunday church services, killing at least 34 and wounding 117. At the time of publication, search and rescue operations were still ongoing.
Two children are among the dead, including a newborn, and 15 more children were wounded. At least 68 people are in hospital, with eight in critical condition. It is the single worst attack on Ukrainian civilians since 5 October 2023, when a Russian missile struck people gathered for a funeral in Hroza, killing 56.
Videos of the aftermath from the first missile show Russia used a double-tap attack to maximize casualties. The second missile exploded in the air, 200 meters from the first strike, to maximize the spread of the submunitions.
Posting on Twitter (also known as X), Zelenskyy said, “Russian missiles hit an ordinary city street, ordinary life – residential buildings, educational institutions, cars on the street… [sic] And that’s on the day when people go to church – Palm Sunday, the feast of the Lord’s Entry into Jerusalem.”
The Ukrianian leader added, “Russia wants exactly this kind of terror and is dragging this war out,” while “The United States, Europe, everyone in the world…wants this war and these killings to end.”
The heart of Sumy, including the Congress Center (conference building), a courthouse, a post office, the Sumy Regional Philharmonic Orchestra, the Educational and Scientific Institute of Business, Economics and Management, and the Sports Hall campuses of Sumy State University, was targeted.
Among the dead are Olena Kohut, a college professor and solo organist with the Sumy Regional Philharmonic, and Diana Popova, the Director General of the Museum of History of the City of Kyiv.
Worshippers at a Baptist Church near the attack site had to duck for cover after the shockwave from the first missile broke windows, showering some congregants with broken glass.
Kirill Illiashenko, 13, is being hailed as a hero for helping rescuing passengers trapped in a burning bus he was riding in. The blast blocked the doors, and despite severe shrapnel wounds, Illiashenko kicked out a window, exited the bus, and was able to open the exit.
The head of the Main Defense Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, identified the Russian military units involved in the Palm Sunday Massacre. Missiles were launched from Liski in the Voronezh region by the 112th Missile Brigade, and Lezhenki in the Kursk region by the 448th Missile Brigade.
The attack happened nine days after the Kryvyi Rih missile strike on a playground killed 19, including nine children, and wounded 75. Russia and Ukraine are technically in a partial ceasefire brokered by the United States that started on 18 March, which Moscow has repeatedly violated.
Mayor of Konotop Calls for Sumy Governor’s Firing
Artem Semenikhin, the mayor of the Sumy region settlement of Konotop, accused Sumy Oblast Governor Volodymyr Artiukh of planning a 13 April awards ceremony for the Ukrainian 117th Brigade in Sumy.
“They want PR for the military,” Semenikhin wrote on Facebook, “They wanted to take pictures at the awards ceremony and thank…And as a result, they poured blood on Sumy, helping the Muscovites commit genocide against Ukrainians.”
During a 14-minute livestream, he claimed an internal criminal investigation was opened. “[A] criminal case has been opened not only for the terrorist genocidal attack by the butchers [Russians – Ed.] against Ukrainians, but also…to find out who thought of holding events with a gathering of military personnel in the city center.”
Ukrainska Pravda reported that “several sources familiar with the situation” confirmed that an award ceremony was scheduled on Sunday morning. The Ministry of Internal Affairs has reportedly contacted the command of the 117th Brigade and Atriukh.
Semenikhin believes that civilians were the primary target, with Moscow using the award ceremony as a pretext to justify the attack.
Attack Causes Shift in Washington’s Tone
Posting on Twitter, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio directly blamed Russia for the attack, signaling a change in position by the Trump administration. “The United States extends our deepest condolences to the victims of today’s horrifying Russian missile attack on Sumy,” Rubio said, “This is a tragic reminder of why President Trump and his Administration are putting so much time and effort into trying to end this war and achieve durable peace.”
Last week, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink came under fire for not mentioning Russia after the Kryvyi Rih playground attack. In another sign of a shift in tone from Washington, Brink’s response to today’s attack also blamed Russia.
“Today, Palm Sunday, Russia launched ballistic missiles on Sumy…Reports indicate, as in Kryvyi Rih, cluster munitions were used, increasing the devastation and harm to civilians. Our prayers are with the people of Sumy.”
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) wrote that without “a dramatic change soon,” he would move forward with his bill that would impose massive sanctions and tariffs against Russia. “It is obvious to me that the only hope of ending this war is to continue to cripple Russia’s economy and punish those who prop up Putin,” said Graham. Currently, the bill has 55 co-sponsors, giving it guaranteed approval in the upper house of Congress.
Posting on his personal Twitter account, U.S. special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg wrote, “Today’s Palm Sunday attack by Russian forces on civilian targets in Sumy crosses any line of decency. There are scores of civilians dead and wounded. As a former military leader, I understand targeting, and this is wrong. It is why President Trump is working hard to end this war.”
Last night, while flying on Air Force One, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are going fine, but he’s running out of patience. “I think Ukraine-Russia might be going OK,” said Trump, “And you’re going to be finding out pretty soon…There’s a point at which you have to either put up or shut up. We’ll see what happens. But I think it’s going fine.”
The attack on Sumy came two days after U.S. special envoy to the Middle East and Russia, Steve Witkoff, met with autocrat Vladimir Putin in Moscow for 4.5 hours. Witkoff’s attempts to broker a Phase 2 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas also failed, with the billionaire turned diplomat admitting that Hamas may have “deceived” him.
World Reacts with Horror
World leaders and diplomats condemned today’s attack, almost universally calling for more pressure to be put on Russia.
Kaja Kallas, the chief diplomat of the European Union, said the attack was a “horrific example of Russia intensifying attacks while Ukraine has accepted an unconditional ceasefire.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “This latest escalation is a grim reminder: Russia was and remains the aggressor, in blatant violation of international law. Strong measures are urgently needed to enforce a ceasefire. Europe will continue to reach out to partners and maintain strong pressure on Russia until the bloodshed ends and a just and lasting peace is achieved, on Ukraine’s terms and conditions.”
European Council President and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: “I strongly condemn this unacceptable violence, which contradicts any real commitment to peace, promoted by President Trump and supported wholeheartedly by Italy, together with Europe and other international partners.”
NATO Press Office: “Horrific scenes from the center of Sumy where Russian ballistic missiles killed dozens and severely injured many more ordinary civilians. Our thoughts are with the Ukrainian people on what is a sacred day for so many.”
French President Emmanuel Macron: “Everyone knows: This war was initiated by Russia alone. And today, it is clear that Russia alone chooses to continue it — with blatant disregard for human lives, international law, and the diplomatic efforts of President Trump.”
German Caretaker Chancellor Olaf Scholz: “Such Russian attacks reveal the truth about Russia’s alleged readiness for peace. Instead of a readiness for peace, we see that Russia is mercilessly continuing its war of aggression against Ukraine. This war must end, and Russia must finally agree to a comprehensive ceasefire.”
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer: “I’m appalled at Russia’s horrific attacks on civilians in Sumy, and my thoughts are with the victims and their loved ones at this tragic time. President Zelenskyy has shown his commitment to peace. Putin must now agree to a full and immediate ceasefire without conditions.”
Moldovan President Maia Sandu: “Palm Sunday is a day of peace. This morning, as people gathered to pray, Russia bombed Sumy—killing and injuring civilians. Moldova mourns with Ukraine and urges more air defence to save lives. The aggressor must be held accountable. There is no justification for such evil.”
Finnish President Alexander Stubb: “Russia continues its barbaric war of aggression. Today, again, slaughtering innocent civilians in Sumy. Russia shows that it has no respect for international law or humanitarian law. We must end this war. An unconditional ceasefire must begin at once. To make it commit seriously to negotiations, sanctions against Russia need to be further strengthened.”
Foreign Ministry of Slovenia: “Russia continues this war with blatant disregard for international law.”
Slovak President Peter Pellegrini: “I condemn today’s brutal attack on Ukrainian city of Sumy…While talks of peace continue, innocent lives are still being lost. The international community must exert all diplomatic efforts and pressure to end this slaughter, urging Russia to seek peace at the negotiating table, not through missiles that kill innocent people.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk: “The Russian version of a ceasefire. Bloody Palm Sunday, Sumy.”
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal: “Let’s be clear. Russia’s goal is erasing Ukraine. Yet another brutal attack against innocent civilians proves it. Our aid to Ukraine cannot be delayed at the most crucial moment. No pressure on Russia means no peace.”
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda: “Another vile Russian war crime – this time in the heart of Sumy. This is a slap in the face to everyone who seeks and desires peace. The civilized world must use force to stop these barbarians who are killing civilians and children.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: “Today, Russia chose once again to prolong its unjustified war of aggression on Ukraine by attacking innocent civilians in Sumy. Our thoughts are with the families of those killed and wounded in this brutal attack. Ukraine has shown its commitment to peace — and Russia must now agree to an immediate ceasefire.
The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine, Matthias Schmale, condemned the attack “in the strongest possible terms.”
“International humanitarian law strictly prohibits attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure,” said Schmale, “Those rules exist to protect human life and dignity — and they must be respected at all times.”
International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and the Geneva Conventions do permit strikes on military targets in civilian areas, but require all possible measures to be taken to minimize civilian casualties, including the type of weapons used. Attack planners must also be able to prove they conducted a proper risk assessment before ordering a strike in a civilian area. However, IHL provides no exceptions for the use of cluster munitions in a civilian area, which is considered a war crime.
[WBHG NEWS] – Twitter, also known as X, experienced a global outage for several hours today. The outage affected the Android and iOS apps and also caused numerous problems with the web client.
Speaking on Fox News, Elon Musk told Larry Kudlow, “We’re not sure what happened…there was a massive cyber attack to try and bring down the X system – ah – with ah – IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area.”
Most Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks involve hackers activating malware unknowingly installed on user computers and devices over a wide area. IP addresses are not a “smoking gun” for the origin of a cyber attack, and IP addresses are easily spoofed. The services likely used to carry out the attack target the “Internet of Things” (IoT) to turn them into zombies. IoT can include anything connected to the web that isn’t a PC, tablet, or smartphone, such as routers, security cameras, thermostats, streaming media boxes, and even home appliances. Given Musk’s experience with software and cyber security, he should know this.
When Musk spoke to Kudlow, the hacker group Dark Storm Team had already claimed responsibility for the attack on its Telegram channel.
Dark Storm was founded in 2023 and primarily targets Israel and NATO Alliance countries, according to the Cyber Intelligence Bureau of Epidemiology Lab. Since its formation, the group has also targeted Egypt, India, Ukraine, Brazil, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates.
The pro-Palestinian cybercriminals are in a coalition with approximately five other hacker groups, including the Russia-based and Kremlin-backed Killnet and the Russia-based Bluenet Russia. They are self-financed and offer hacking services for hire. Its primary goal is to exploit political and religious differences in support of a Palestinian state and the Palestinian people.
Other members of the Dark Storm Team coalition include Anonymous Sudan, Ghosts of Palestine, and SN_BLACKMETA, which is based in Sudan. To conduct DDoS attacks, Darm Storm has used ZeusAPI, which was sold to Aleksandr Andreevich Panin in 2012. Panin, a Russian citizen and co-founder of SpyEye, was arrested and convicted of cybercrimes in 2016. Despite his arrest, ZeusAPI is still updated and used today.
Channel DDoS V2 and Krypton Networks are also DDoS “as a service” tools that anyone can buy. The home base for Krypton Networks (not to be confused with the gaming company based in the U.K. that uses the same name) is unknown, but they have dedicated Russian and Chinese-language Telegram pages. It is unclear where Channel DDoS V2 is based. According to cyber security experts, possibilities include Argentina, Germany, the Netherlands, and Indonesia.
According to Info Security Magazine, ZeusAPI, Channel DDoS V2, and Krypton Networks services were used for the majority of cyberattacks against the United States in the first half of 2024.
Is There Another Agenda
The attack and the thinly veiled implication that Ukraine was behind it come less than 24 hours before U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are supposed to meet in Saudi Arabia. The meeting is meant to stabilize relations between Ukraine and its potential former ally, restore the minerals deal, and convince Washington to restart intelligence sharing and military aid.
Musk’s latest accusation follows a weekend of events meant to portray Ukraine and its allies in a negative light.
On Saturday, Vice President JD Vance exaggerated his interaction with pro-Ukrainian protesters in Cincinnati, Ohio, accusing them of chasing him and his 3-year-old daughter. Video of the impromptu discussion appears to show Vance approached the group, and his Secret Service detail did not see them as a threat. Most of the talking was between an older woman and the Vice President. There was no evidence that he was chased.
Responding to a different video recorded near Vance’s home that circulated on Saturday, William Martin, the Press Secretary of Vance, wrote, “Anyone that’s ever been here knows Jimmy [Rushton] is full of shit because the video of these Slava Ukraini scumbags harassing the Vice President’s daughter takes place on a completely different street nearby.”
Early on Sunday morning, after Musk, President Donald Trump, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had dinner at Mar-a-Lago, Musk appeared to threaten to turn off Starlink service to Ukraine. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski responded on Twitter, writing, “Starlinks for Ukraine are paid by the Polish Digitization Ministry at the cost of about $50 million per year. The ethics of threatening the victim of aggression apart, if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider we will be forced to look for suppliers.”
Musk quickly responded, writing on Twitter, “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink.”
Secretary Rubio then defended Musk. “Just making things up. No one has made any threats about cutting Ukraine off from Starlink. And say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russia would be on the border of Poland right now.”
As a point of order, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad already shares a border with Poland.
Appearing to go into damage control mode on Sunday evening, Musk then wrote, “To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals.”
Early on Monday morning, the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, didn’t consider the spat over. “True leadership means respect for partners and allies, Tusk said, “Even for the smaller and weaker ones. Never arrogance. Dear friends, think about it.”
On Monday morning, Musk called Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) a “traitor” for traveling to Ukraine to meet with government officials. Kelly is a decorated war veteran and naval aviator with over 5,000 flight hours and hundreds of carrier landings. He conducted 39 combat sorties during Operation Desert Storm.
Kelly was also a NASA astronaut. He was on STS-108, the pilot for STS-121, and the commander for STS-124 and STS-134.
A member of the Democratic party, he was elected to the Senate in 2020.
Kelly responded to Musk on Twitter. “Traitor?” he wrote, “Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.”
Jonathan Chait, a write with The Atlantic, called Musk’s accusation “rather odd,” adding, “unless one considered Ukraine an enemy of the United States. Where Musk is going, Trump is likely to follow.”
The Kremlin and the Trump White House, along with their proxies, have repeatedly claimed that a key driver of the Russia-Ukraine War was Ukraine’s desire to join the NATO Alliance.
Tucked away among the over 10 million documents released by Julian Assange’s Wikileaks is a confidential cable dated 25 November 2009 between Kyiv-based U.S. State Department Political Counselor Colin Cleary and Washington, D.C. The cable was sent to the Commonwealth of Independent States, NATO—European Union Cooperative, and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.
There are 13 paragraphs, including one about NATO Alliance membership, one about joining the European Union, and one about continuing military support for Georgia, which came under partial Russian occupation in August 2008.
Cleary’s cable is an outline of Viktor Yanukovych’s potential foreign policy if he won the 2010 presidential election in Ukraine and what Kyiv’s position would be on a number of geopolitical issues. Cleary met with Anatoliy Orel, a Senior Advisor to Yanukovych, in Kyiv, and on 10 February 2010, Yanukovych became Ukraine’s president.
The memo speaks for itself. Orel told Cleary that a Yanukovych administration would adopt a new foreign policy.
A reset in relations with Russia, generally deferring to Russia’s red lines
Extending the lease at the Port of Sevastopol in Crimea to the Russian Black Sea Fleet
Non-bloc status and an end to Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations
Relations with the European Union on “equal terms” but without membership
Cooling of relations between Ukraine and Georgia
A “pragmatic” relationship with the U.S.
On Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Relations
According to the confidential cable, Orel “condemned” the policies of then-president Viktor Yushchenko, who took a “black-and-white” approach to foreign policy: Russia, bad, and the West, good. He went on to stress that “Ukraine has to take the views of Russia very seriously. Hostile relations with Russia are not in Ukraine’s interest.”
During Yushchenko’s administration, then-Ukrainian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk drew up a list of the “thorniest” issues between Moscow and Kyiv. The most critical issues were “border demarcation [with Russia – Ed.] and the Black Sea Fleet.” No progress was made, and Orel said as the foreign policy head, he would work on “getting the best deal he can for Ukraine. Further, he went on to say that Russia did not want to resolve border issues and was “concerned about the Kerch Strait/Azov Sea being open to NATO ships and thus wants to keep the border unresolved.”
On Joining NATO and Other Alliances
Cleary wrote that Orel “asserted” that “NATO membership ‘makes no sense’ for Ukraine,” adding that “The public is overwhelmingly against it.”
He cited The U.S. War on Terror and Operation Enduring Freedom, which Orel rightly predicted would “end in Vietnam-like failure for the Alliance.” Yanukovych’s team was also concerned that pursuing NATO membership would “needlessly complicate relations with Russia.”
At the time of the meeting with Cleary, Ukrainian troops were already deployed in Afghanistan as part of the International Security Assistance Force. The multinational military mission was active between 2001 and 2014. Ukrainian forces then transitioned to a non-combat role in Operation Resolute Support, which was responsible for training the National Army of Afghanistan. In June 2021, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy withdrew the last 21 Ukrainian soldiers from Afghanistan, ending a 14-year deployment.
Publicly, Yanukovych said he supported cooperation with the NATO Alliance but would not seek membership. Orel and MP Leonid Kozhara, who both worked during the Leonid Kuchma presidency from 1994 to 2005, said that Kuchma “had improved cooperation with NATO in far more practical ways that [sic] Yushchenko ever had.”
Yanukovych was true to his word, maintaining the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre at the Yavoriv Military Base, which opened in 2007 but never advanced NATO membership. The training facility was created under the Ukraine-NATO Partnership for Peace program, which Ukraine joined in February 1994.
In November 2015, Fearless Guardian II, a “combined training between Soldiers from the Joint Multinational Training Group (JMTG-U) – Ukraine, Ukrainian Land Forces, and Ukrainian Special Operations Forces,” started. The California National Guard, 173rd Airborne Brigade, 10th Special Forces Group, and training support personnel from U.S. Army Europe and the Joint Multinational Training Command led the exercise. In total, five battalions were trained.
Orel also told Cleary that under Yanukovych, Kyiv “should” walk away from a Polish-led initiative to join the Eastern Partnership. Warsaw wanted to create a regional agreement with Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Ukraine to “create a cordon around Russia” that Yushchenko believed was “irritating to Russia.” In July 2009, the two nations established a limited agreement to ease travel between the Polish-Ukrainian border for residents who lived within 30 kilometers of the boundary.
When it came to Georgia, both Orel and Kozhara told Cleary that Ukraine would “cool relations.” At the time, Russia occupied approximately 20% of Georgia after its unprovoked invasion in August 2008. When Russia first occupied the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions, Yanukovych publicly supported the “recognition of the “independence” of the two republics.
During the November 2009 meeting, Orel and Kozhara assured Cleary that this would not happen because the “recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia would send the wrong signal” and it would be “going too far to appease Russia.”
In fact, after Yanukovych became president in 2010, he did not stop arms sales to Georgia and never recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
European Union Membership
Two days before the meeting between Cleary and Orel, region economic chief Mykola Azarov told U.S. embassy staff that “economic reform in Ukraine should come from within and need not be driven by harmonization with the [European Union] (E.U.).” Orel believed that the E.U. would never allow Ukraine to become a full member because the nation’s agricultural and industrial resources would be the largest in the bloc, and it would “undercut prices in Europe.”
Azarov wanted to set a course that would establish bilateral trade with the E.U. and believed that having to comply with a long list of reforms with no assurance of membership was “demeaning.”
At the time of the meeting with Cleary, the E.U. and Ukraine were operating under a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement and had already started broader negotiations to forge an Association Agreement (AA). The AA was approved in March 2012, putting Ukraine on a path to E.U. accession. Later that same year, E.U. Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fule stated that the AA and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreements could be signed in November 2013 if Ukraine complied with additional reforms.
The Fallout
The cable published by Wikileaks aligns with almost all of the events from 2010 to 2014 and reveals that, under Yanukovych, Ukraine had no plans to seek NATO Alliance membership.
It was in 2012 when Russia started its active hybrid war against Ukraine, driving a political and social wedge between the industrial east and the cosmopolitan west. The State Department cable and history support that Moscow’s real issue was Kyiv’s desire to join the E.U. What remains unclear is what changed during the opening months of the Yanukovych administration, which led Kyiv to embrace a path towards a deeper economic relationship.
Russia expanded its coercion in August 2013, starting a trade war by restricting imports and dramatically increasing soft power influence within Ukraine. Three months later, Lithuanian diplomats said Yanukovych changed his mind on E.U. accession because of blackmail over imports and exports, natural gas, and jobs. On 21 November, Yanukovych suspended further efforts to join the E.U. and canceled the signing ceremony for the DCFTA, which was scheduled for the 28th in Vilnius.
Widespread protests erupted across Ukraine, with Yanukovych’s government getting increasingly violent, deploying the Berkut, a cross between riot police and a goon squad. In 2023, around the time of the failed Prigozhin Insurrection in Rostov-on-Don, multiple Russian milbloggers revealed that Russian soldiers were involved in cracking down on the protests, working in cooperation with the Berkut and Yanukovych’s government.
Kyiv passed oppressive anti-protest laws on 16 January 2014. Increasingly violent clashes continued, including the death of several protesters later in the week. Demonstrators occupied multiple government buildings across Ukraine. In an attempt to defuse the situation, the Rada repealed most of the anti-protest laws. Azarov, who was now the prime minister, resigned on 28 January.
By then, Moscow was controlling the anti-Maidan with support from Berkut, its own military operatives, and mercenary supporters. Yanukovych was also under the control of the Kremlin, which intended for him to be a puppet who would control Ukraine as a rump state. On 20 February, almost 100 protesters were killed in Kyiv after the Berkut and snipers opened fire. Thirteen police officers also died, and hundreds were wounded.
On the same day, Russian soldiers invaded the Crimean Peninsula, and a contingent of Russians, including FSB Colonel Igor “Strelkov” Girkin, traveled to Donetsk in the Donbas to meet with pro-Russian elements within the region. Girkin would go on to be the first Minister of Defense of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and lead the 1st Army Corps.
Prior to his arrest by Russia in the summer of 2023 for violating Moscow’s “don’t say war” laws, Girkin confessed that he was the instigator of the warfare in the Donbas. A claim backed up by the now-deceased leader of the former Private Military Company Wagner Group, Yevgen Prigozhin. Russian milblogger Seymon Pegov also revealed in September 2022 that he was fighting under the leadership of Girkin in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk and condemned Girkin for “abandoning him” during the collapse of the Russian offensive.
On 21 February 2014, Yanukovych signed an agreement forming an interim government and reinstating the 2004 Constitution. Hours later, the Berkut and police withdrew, and protesters took control. The next day, Yanukovych tried to flee to Russia through Kharkiv but was stopped by border guards. Two days later, he fled to Moscow on a Russian military flight out of occupied Crimea.
Ukraine did not seek NATO membership until April 2022, and the atrocities committed by Russian forces in the Kyiv suburbs of Bucha and Irpin were revealed to the world. At the end of the Biden administration in 2024, it was revealed that Washington never intended to permit Ukraine to join the NATO Alliance, along with Germany and Hungary. The White House was worried that even the offer of an invitation to NATO would provoke Russia into potentially attacking the NATO Alliance or using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Wikileaks exposes that almost 14 years of attempts to appease Moscow by Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels were all in vain. Moscow had already destabilized Belarus and Georgia, with the latter currently falling deeper under the control of the Georgia Dream regime.
[WBHG NEWS] – After violating their self-declared 4 February ceasefire, Rwandan-backed M23 rebels secured the city of Bukavu, advancing over 90 kilometers in two weeks from occupied Goma.
“Rwanda-backed rebels have occupied a second major city in mineral-rich eastern Congo,” Congo’s government said Sunday. Militants occupied the governor’s office and pledged to sweep away the “old regime.”
The Congolese Army was in collapse and offered almost no resistance as the much smaller M23 rebel force and Rwandan army swept to the south coast of Lake Kivu and secured more of the mineral-rich region. On Saturday, Congolese soldiers retreated with thousands of panicked civilians as the geopolitical and humanitarian crisis worsened. Up to 15,000 refugees crossed into Burundi, Africa’s poorest country, amid the violence.
The capture of Bukavu essentially seals both major border crossings into Rwanda and enables the Rwandan Army and M23 rebels to use Lake Kivu for supplies and logistics.
On Tuesday, the U.N. reported that humanitarian aid warehouses were looted in the South Kivu province as social order broke down. The U.N. Human Rights Office (OHCHR) confirmed that M23 rebels executed three children in Bukavu.
“Our Office has confirmed cases of summary execution of children by M23 after they entered the city of Bukavu last week. We are also aware that children were in possession of weapons. We call on Rwanda and M23 to ensure that human rights and international humanitarian law are respected,” said OHCHR spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani.
There were additional credible reports of more extrajudicial executions, arbitrary arrests, and threats made to journalists, human rights workers, judges, lawyers, and other civil service employees. French news agency AFP confirmed that two people were “lynched” by a mob who accused them of looting.
So far, Diplomatic Efforts have Failed
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the territorial integrity of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to be preserved. “The fighting that is raging in South Kivu – as a result of the continuation of the M23 offensive – threatens to push the entire region over the precipice,” Guterres warned the African Union during an emergency summit.
African Union Peace and Security Commissioner Bankole Adeoye said regional leaders are increasingly worried that the ongoing conflict in the eastern part of the DRC will escalate into “an open regional war” over resources. During the summit, Rwanda was accused of providing supplies and logistics provided by China to the M23 rebels. Kigali has repeatedly denied the accusations.
Stéphane Dujarric, the spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Guterres, said that MONUSCO was protecting 1,400 civilians and NGO workers at the peacekeeping base in Goma. Fighting between M-23 and their Rwandan army backers and the Congolese Army has left 80 schools and 27 healthcare centers severely damaged.
South African and Malawian peacekeepers from the Southern African Development Community Mission in DRC (SAMIDRC) and the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Cong (MONUSCO) remain trapped at Goma Airport and the nearby town of Saké. South Africa’s Minister of Defense, Angie Motshekga, said the top priority was evacuating 14 dead South African soldiers and the wounded. She insisted that the SAMIDRC mission would continue despite the violence and growing tension between Congolese, Rwandan, and South African leaders.
On Monday, Uganda’s military commander, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, threatened to launch an offensive on the DRC city of Bunia, claiming, without evidence, that ethnic Bahima were being killed.
A Country of Contradictions and Bloodshed
Decades of war, instability, and corruption have killed an estimated 6 million people in the DRC since 1996. M23, or March 23, was formed in 2012 and is composed primarily of ethnic Congolese Tutsis backed by the Rwanda government. Both claim that M23 is a required force to prevent ethnic Hutus from carrying out another genocide like the one in Rwanda in 1994. The international community has repeatedly rejected these claims.
The DRC is the 10th largest country on the planet and the 5th wealthiest in terms of natural resources. Despite abundant water, high-quality copper ore, and vast amounts of rare earth elements, the Congolese are the ninth poorest in Africa in terms of GDP per capita and ranked 181st in the world.
IPC Acute Food Insecurity Map for the Democratic Republic of Congo, September 2024
Over 3.4 million people are “facing critical levels of food insecurity,” according to the latest report by the IPC. Another 22.4 million people, 19% of the population, are facing “crisis levels” of food insecurity. The September 2024 report was released prior to the dramatic increase in fighting and the suspension of humanitarian aid by the U.S.
Today, 80% of all coltan ore comes from the DRC, and 80% of the mining operations are controlled or financed by China. Coltan is refined into cobalt, which is used in a wide range of applications, including dyes, semiconductors, and rechargeable batteries.
Coltan also produces tantalum, which is used to manufacture capacitors found in almost all smartphones, computers, and electronics. In April 2024, M23 took over one of the most productive coltan mines and has been illegally exporting raw ore to Rwanda ever since.
According to a 7 January report by the U.N., M23 is earning at least $800,000 a month through the illegal mining operation just at the Rubaya Mine. Satellite images, documents, and public import/export records show how coltan ore is removed from the facility to Rwanda and then mixed with lower-quality domestically sourced ore. In 2023, the most recent year records are available, Rwanda recorded a staggering 50% increase in coltan ore exports compared to 2022. The total tonnage exceeded domestic production.
China’s interest in the DRC appears to go beyond extracting mineral wealth. While Beijing has never been formally accused of arming the M23 rebels, pictures and videos show the group is well-equipped with Chinese kit and weapons.
The Congolese Army is considered weak, poorly trained, and corrupt. Since M23 expanded its offensive in late, the army has suffered repeated humiliating defeats, with thousands of soldiers deserting. Last month in Goma, over 400 Romanian mercenaries, allegedly providing “training” and operating artillery, crossed the border into Rwanda and surrendered, abandoning their infantry mobility vehicles and weapons.
The other powers with influence on the continent, the United States, Russia, and France, have limited economic and military exposure in the DRC and Rwanda.
Türkiye was the first country to sell military equipment to the DRC three months after an international ban was lifted in late 2022. In 2024, Turkish armored vehicle manufacturer Katmerciler completed a multi-million dollar contract for 185 mine-resistant infantry mobility vehicles. Türkiye has also sold arms to Rwanda but on a much smaller scale.
In late 2024, Russia deployed a very small group of troops with the Rosgvardiya Afrika Corps, formerly known as Private Military Company Wagner Group, to the DRC. The Russian soldiers are not in the eastern part of the country, and their role remains unclear.
USAID Employees Flee as Russia Moves In
Last week, several employees with USAID and the State Department filed a lawsuit against the Trump Administration, claiming that they and their families were abandoned in the DRC capital of Kinshasa. On 28 January, rioters attacked the U.S. embassy and nine others, lighting fires, breaching fences, and looting the buildings. Widespread unrest spread across the city, with protesters targeting groups and countries they viewed responsible for the fighting on the Rwandan border.
On the same day, the U.S. closed its embassy “to the public until further notice” due to ”an increase in violence.” Embassy officials advised citizens to “shelter-in-place and then safely depart while commercial options are available.”
The lawsuit revealed the security situation in Kinshasa, over 1,500 kilometers west of the fighting, is far worse than initially reported. Court records show that one USAID employee and their family had to be extracted from their home by the U.S. Marine contingent assigned to the embassy after protesters breached the outer wall and set their home on fire.
Some U.S. government employees said the State Department abandoned them when they received notices on 4 February that they were being placed on leave despite being trapped.
Others opted to evacuate in January. Then-acting USAID administrator Jason Gray initially balked at issuing a “waiver request” to provide funds to evacuate USAID employees and their families. By the time one was issued on 29 January, many had already fled.
In public court records, one USAID worker declared, “USAID staff and their families participated in the evacuation from Kinshasa and boarded small boats alongside friends and colleagues from other foreign affairs agencies to cross the Congo River to Brazzaville. Each individual was able to take only what would fit in their lap…Staff remained at a hotel in Brazzaville for about two days before flying…to Dulles International Airport.”
According to the U.S. Embassy in the Democratic Republic of Congo, through 23 January 2025, USAID had provided $3 billion in humanitarian aid and $6 billion in total assistance over the last ten years.
Just days after the November U.S. federal elections, Russian state media agency Sputnik reported that the Russian humanitarian cooperation agency Rossotrudnuchestvo, Moscow’s equivalent to USAID, was working on starting operations in the DRC.
[WBHG NEWS] – Israel announced it would defy the ceasefire deadline it agreed to with Lebanese Hezbollah and Lebanon, which was already extended to 18 February last month.
Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, the IDF spokesperson, said that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would remain “so we can continue to defend our residents and to make sure there’s no immediate threat.”
“We will leave small amounts of troops deployed temporarily in five strategic points along the border,” Shoshani added.
Israeli decided to ignore the withdrawal deadline last week with the backing of the United States. Last Thursday, Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, said that after the U.S. notified him of Israeli’s plan, he rejected it. “I refused to talk about any deadline to extend the withdrawal period.”
The Lebanese Army confirmed that overnight, IDF forces withdrew from over a dozen towns, including Aabbasiyyeh, Majidieh, Kafr Kila, Marjaayoun, Odaisseh, Markaba, Houla, Mays al-Jabal, Blida, Mahbib, Maroun al-Ras, Yaron, Bint Jbeil, Kfar Shouba, and several small villages near the U.N. Blue Line border.
Starting on 8 October 2023, the day after a brigade-sized force of the Hamas-aligned Al Quds Brigade invaded Israel, Hezbollah started artillery, drone, rocket, and anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) strikes on northern Israel, with the blessing of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the political blessing of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei.
Israel significantly increased military pressure in southern Lebanon after the 27 July 2024 Hezbollah rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the disputed Golan Heights, which killed 12 ethnic Druze children and wounded 42 who were playing on a soccer pitch.
On 17 September, Israel executed a targeted attack on Hezbollah’s command and control structure using pagers and two-way radios packed with explosives. Over 4,000 militants were wounded in less than 48 hours, and up to a dozen non-combatants were killed, including a child. The attacks decapitated Hezbollah’s command, control, and communication capabilities, setting conditions for a 1 October land invasion. Seven weeks later, the U.S. and France brokered the three-way ceasefire.
The original ceasefire was between Israel, Hezbollah, and the Lebanese government and went into effect on 27 November. Hezbollah agreed to fully withdraw to the north of the Litani River within 60 days and end attacks on northern Israel. Lebanon agreed to deploy 10,000 members of the Lebanese Army south of the Litani River to the U.N. Blue Line, which established the border between Israel and Lebanon in 2000. Israel agreed that it would stop attacks on Hezbollah and fully withdraw its forces from Lebanon by 26 January.
Although the ceasefire held, there were hundreds of violations by Israel and Hezbollah, with dozens of Lebanese civilians killed. In mid-January, Israel accused the Lebanese government of not deploying troops fast enough and having elements within the government aiding Hezbollah. Through last-minute diplomatic efforts, an agreement was reached by all parties to extend the ceasefire to the 18th.
The IDF has continued to conduct periodic airstrikes and military raids on Hezbollah militants and their ammunition depots. The Israeli Air Force has also carried out airstrikes on the Syria-Lebanon border, possibly in support of Syrian forces fighting Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in the country’s west.
Since the September pager attacks, Hezbollah has suffered a series of political and military blows. Joseph Aoun became Lebanon’s first president in two years and is an outspoken critic of the terrorist organization. The December collapse of the Bashir al-Assad regime in Syria severed critical Hezbollah supply lines between Iran and Lebanon that were used to move militants, advisors, weapons, and money.
Despite Israel’s refusal to withdraw, there are no indications that major fighting is going to restart. The U.S., U.N., and France signaled their view on Israel’s actions is ambivalent and have not made any demands for Israel to complete its withdrawal immediately.
[WBHG NEWS] – Delta Airlines Flight DL4819 crashed during a landing attempt in Toronto, Canada.
The fuselage remained intact, with the wings, stabilizer, and rudder torn off, and the plane turned over on its back. Canadian officials reported that everyone was expected to survive.
The American Airlines Bombardier CRJ900 departed Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport at 11:34 AM after a 64-minute delay, and was supposed to land in Toronto at 2:11 PM.
This is the third commercial airline crash involving a U.S. airline in less than a month. On January 29, American Airlines Flight 5342 collided with a U.S. Army Blackhawk helicopter conducting an annual pilot check flight. All three crewmembers on the Blackhawk and the 64 crewmembers and passengers on the Bombardier CRJ700 flying from Wichita, Kansas, to Reagan National Airport in Washington, D.C., were killed. A Cessna 208 Caravan operated by Bering Air crashed near Nome, Alaska, on February 6, killing all nine passengers and the pilot.
Former United States President Jimmy Carter passed away in his Georgia home surrounded by family. He was 100 years old. He is survived by his four children: Jack, Chip, Jeff, and Amy; 11 grandchildren; and 14 great-grandchildren. His wife passed in November 2023 due to complications from dementia.
Carter was the 39th President, serving from January 1977 to January 1981 during a turbulent time in U.S. history. He is best known for the 1978 Camp David Accords, which settled decades of dispute between Israel and Egypt, including the return of the Sinai Peninsula, which Israel had occupied after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. He also negotiated the Salt II Nuclear Arms Treaty in June 1979 but asked Congress to suspend ratification after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan.
James Earl Carter Junior was born on 1 October 1924 in Plains, Georgia, and was the first American President to be born in a hospital. He graduated high school in 1941 and studied at Georgia Southwestern College and the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, where he joined the Reserve Officer’s Training Corps. In 1943, he was assigned to the U.S. Naval Academy, a lifelong goal, and graduated in 1946. He met with his wife while at the Academy, and they married shortly after his graduation.
Carter served as a Navy officer from 1946 to 1953. In 1951, he was assigned to the submarine USS K-1 and eventually became its executive officer. In 1952, he was transferred to the command of Captain Hyman Rickover, who led the U.S. Navy’s new nuclear submarine program.
On 12 December 1952, an accident at the experimental NRX reactor at Atomic Energy of Canada’s Chalk River Laboratories caused a partial meltdown, flooding the basement area with radioactive water and debris. Carter was ordered to the facility and led a team of soldiers with other members of the U.S. and Canadian military to clean up the accident and decommission the reactor. Carter and his subordinates were lowered into the radioactive areas for 90-second periods to carry out complex tasks and help drain the contaminated water.
In 1953, Carter was supposed to be transferred to the USS Seawolf, the second nuclear power submarine in the U.S. Navy. However, his father died in the same year, and he received a discharge so he could take over the family’s peanut farm.
He entered politics a decade later and was a Georgia state senator from 1963 to 1967. Carter attempted to run for governor in 1966 and was defeated in the primary. In 1970, he won a bitter election in the post-Equal Rights Amendment South to become Georgia’s 76th governor from 1971 to 1975.
In 1976, he was elected as the 39th President against incumbent Gerald Ford, who became President on 9 August 1974 when then President Richard M. Nixon resigned due to the Watergate Scandal. He won with just 50.1% of the popular vote, taking 297 electoral votes, receiving virtually no support west of the Mississippi River.
After his Presidency, Carter remained extremely active in international diplomacy, working toward conflict resolution in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
In 1984, Carter and his wife formed the Jimmy & Rosalynn Carter Work Project to support the charity now known as Habitat for Humanity. On their 40th wedding anniversary in 1986, they assisted in renovating four Chicago-area homes. Over the next 40 years, Carter’s foundation would help build over 4,350 homes, and as recently as 2019, he was still swinging a hammer.
In 1986, the Carter Center started the Guinea Worm Eradication Program. In the 1980s, almost four million people in 21 countries were infected by a parasitic roundworm that would enter the body during its larval stage. Growing up to a meter long, they would slowly emerge through the skin, causing excruciating pain. The parasite is on the brink of elimination, with only 16 probable cases reported in 2023.
In 2015, Carter was diagnosed with cancer of the liver and underwent surgery. Doctors found he had melanoma, a type of skin cancer, that had also spread to his brain. Carter had hip replacement surgery in 2019, followed by a brain bleed due to a fall and then a series of hospitalizations. In early 2023, he ended his medical treatment and moved to in-home hospice.
With 44 years of hindsight, most historians consider Carter a “below average” President but one of the most effective past presidents in U.S. history due to his diplomatic, humanitarian, and peacekeeping efforts.
An analysis of the 2021 report from the Quincy Institute that has been used to claim the United States maintains almost 750 military bases around the world was found to have significant flaws. In 2020, David Vine, a Professor of Anthropology at American University, made headlines after publishing books, a report, and shared data claiming the U.S. has almost 800 military bases in over 80 countries around the world. The data was updated in 2021 after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, with the count dropping to 740. Numerous news organizations continue to run stories based on the report, which has been used as a rallying cry against U.S. imperialism.
A review of Vine’s data found significant problems that go beyond the passage of time, which has seen some bases open and other bases close, and new data that answered questions about some facilities. Addressing many issues with the data and methodology, the list shrinks to 166 base sites and 51 lily pads that can be absolutely confirmed for a total of 217 military facilities. If you include the eight verified sites on U.S. territorial soil, which the Department of Defense counts as overseas bases, the count climbs to 225.
If you include another 150 unidentified lily pad sites that did not include any sourcing information in Vine’s data, the figure climbs to 375. That’s still just over half of the 740 sites claimed by the 2021 Quincy Institute study.
The data from Vine’s research is publicly available from the American University website and includes the definition of what a “base site” and “lily pad” is. Vine explained how he and his team created their methodology, writing, “Using the Pentagon’s term ‘base site’ means that, in some cases, an installation generally referred to as a single base—such as Aviano Air Base in Italy—actually consists of multiple base sites—in Aviano’s case, at least eight. Counting each base site makes sense because sites with the same name are often in geographically disparate locations.”
It is important to note that the initial research is four years old and could not have accounted for the closure of the eight U.S. base sites in Afghanistan in 2021, the withdrawal from Mali, the ongoing U.S. withdrawal from Niger, or the recently announced ending of the joint training mission at the Krtsanisi National Training Centre in Georgia.
How Did We Reach Our Conclusion
Using Vine’s publicly available data, we conducted an audit of his list. We realigned his methodology of counting individual facilities within a host nation base or community as unique base sites or lily pads by applying the methodology evenly. Reviewing geolocation information and publicly available addresses, if individually counted base sites were found to be in the same building or adjacent buildings, they were combined into an individual site.
Additionally, a small number of errors were identified, resulting in a reduction in the number of lily pad sites. Civilian support facilities for dependent family members, such as AAFES stores, base housing, and non-military primary schools, were removed from the count. A small number of lily pad sites that additional research discovered were leased storage space within civilian facilities, such as fuel storage at several locations, were also removed. Unmanned base sites, such as the radio transmitter at Grindavik, Greenland (part of Denmark), remained in the count.
Vine’s Research Used Inconsistent Methodology for Duplicate Base Sites and Lily Pads
A significant problem is Vine and his team didn’t consistently adhere to their methodology. In some cases, facilities in the same building were counted as individual base sites or lily pads. Others, such as Diego Garcia, located in British Indian Ocean Territory, were counted as a single base. Addressing Diego Garcia, Vine wrote in his notes, “Could be considered 2 bases because Air Force and Navy.”
For some locations, the data for a base site included the latitude and longitude to the fifth decimal, enabling geolocation by satellite imagery, and was further confirmed using publicly available physical addresses. In another example, Incirlik Air Base in Adana, Türkiye, was counted twice, once as a base site and once as a lily pad, with no distinction between the two in the description or notes and no sourcing information provided.
Address searches, satellite imagery, and public information available through the U.S. Department of Defense identified 138 locations counted as unique sites that did not adhere to Vine’s criteria. When condensing the list, if a base site and lily pad overlapped, we adjusted the count to leave the base site because, by definition, they are more likely capable of supporting combat operations.
Leased Civilian Infrastructure Counted as Base Sites and Lily Pads
Several lily pad sites in Vine’s data are leased commercial fuel storage facilities to support potential military operations. For example, the base site in Takoradi, Ghana, is a non-military port infrastructure tank farm, which by the Department of Defense definition, should have been counted as a lily pad. Demonstrating other inconsistencies, leased fuel storage tanks at civilian locations in Cote D’Ivoire and Botswana were counted as lily pads.
According to the data, a small number of sites are warehouses where humanitarian aid and disaster relief equipment and supplies are forward deployed, including one at Cesar Basa in the Philippines, which includes the note that it is “to be built.”
Sites Where There are Agreements for Military Access During Certain Conditions, Counted as Active Bases
At least 24 bases on the list are locations where the U.S. has a permanent presence but aren’t run by the DoD. Some have a major presence, like bases in Germany, the U.K., and Italy, while others only host small forces for short periods, once a year or less – or possibly never. One example is Queen Beatrix International Airport in Aruba. As the southern Caribbean island’s only airport, it can support military aircraft. Aruba is part of the Netherlands, which is a NATO Alliance member. Vine notes that the airfield could accommodate up to eight U.S. aircraft if a theoretical cooperative security request were made. In his data, Queen Beatrix Airport was counted as an active lily pad.
Another location counted as a lily pad is Shannon Airport in Ireland. It can support refueling and act as an alternative landing site for U.S. military aircraft, but like Aruba, it does not have a full-time military presence.
Muscat International Airport in Oman was counted as a base site, citing the American Security Project. However, the report only states that it is “usable under the Facilities Access Agreement” and that military material is forward deployed. That would be defined as a lily pad.
Other airports with similar agreements include Comalapa International Airport in El Salvador and the airfield on the Galapagos Islands controlled by Ecuador.
Civilian Housing, Hospitals, Shopping Malls, and Children’s Schools Counted as Military Bases
A subset of the 740 military base sites listed in Vine’s data included civilian housing, joint military-civilian hospitals, shopping malls, war memorials, recreation centers, and dependent children schools, including,
The Akasaka Press Center, which houses the offices and print shop of Stars and Stripes in Japan
American Memorial Park, run by the U.S. National Park Service, on Northern Mariana Island
The U.S. National War Dog Cemetery and Memorial at Naval Base Guam
Sungnam Golf Course, Songnam, South Korea
AAFES Distibution Center in Gruenstadt, Germany
Okuma Beach and Outdoor Recreation Facility, Japan
New Sanno Hotel, Tokyo, Japan
Single-person housing (BAQ) at Aviano Air Force Base (2 locations)
Dependent family housing at Baumholder Airfield, Germany
Dependent family housing at Bleidorn, Germany
Dependent family housing at Boeblingen, Germany
Dependent family housing at Garmisch, Germany
Dependent family housing at Moehringen, Stuttgart, Germany
Dependent family housing at Robinson-Grenadier, Germany
Dependent family housing at Steuven and Weicht Village, Germany
Dependent family housing in Wiesbaden, Germany
Dependent family housing in Vicenza, Italy
Dependent family housing Ikego at Yokosuka Naval Base Housing, Japan
Dependent family housing in Hario, Japan
Dependent family housing at Ikeda-Cho, Japan
Dependent family housing at RAF Ely, United Kingdom
Dependent family primary school at NSA Bahrain
Dependent family primary school at Sterrebeek, Brussels
Dependent family primary school in Stuttgart, Germany
Hainerberg Housing and AAFES Shopping Center at Wiesbaden, Germany
U.S. Naval Hospital at Agana Heights, Guam, which is the only trauma center on the island that provides services for military personnel and civilians
U.S. Army Hospital at Baumholder, Germany
Naval Medical Research Center and Infectious Disease Surveillance in Lima, Peru
A warehouse of medical supplies at the same location in Lima, Peru
Naval Medical Research Center and Infectious Disease Surveillance in Cairo, Egypt
Naval Medical Research Center and Infectious Disease Surveillance, Phnom Pehn, Cambodia
Area II Army Religious Retreat Center in Seoul, South Korea, closed on November 25, 2013
In another irregularity, Vine’s list omitted the Naval Medical Research Center in Tokyo, Japan, which is located at the Hardy Barracks, also not counted, in the same building the Stars and Stripes offices are located.
Known Overseas Military Sites Missing and Closed Bases Counted
Google Maps view of Argentia Naval Air Station, abandoned in 1994 but included in David Vine’s database of active U.S. military base sites
The audit found there were inconsistencies and inaccuracies about U.S. base sites and lily pads in Canada. The database listed “small base sites” but counted them as a single lily pad while listing Argentia, Newfoundland, as hosting an operating U.S. base site. Argentia Naval Air Station and Fort McAndrew were closed in 1994 and satellite images show the airfield is unusable. However, Detachment 2, First Air Force, does maintain approximately 150 active duty airmen at the Canadian military base at North Bay, Ontario. That contingent wasn’t included in Vine’s data despite meeting the criteria as a base site.
Vine’s research omitted other known bases, including the International Center for Peacemaking and Security at Yavoriv Military Base, near Lviv, Ukraine. From 2007 to 2022, that facility was used for joint NATO-Ukraine training, including U.S. military personnel. International operations ended in February 2022 due to Russia’s expanded war of aggression against Ukraine. In his notes, there was a question mark, despite the earlier joint training exercises between the U.S. and Ukraine being readily available public information.
Nine more lily pad sites in Saudi Arabia were included despite the U.S. withdrawal in 2003. Vine’s notes indicate that a “small U.S. contingent remains to train Saudis, [and] keep bases warm, and cites the 2018 American Security Project as the source.
The publicly available American Security Project report didn’t support Vine’s conclusion. It stated, “The U.S. withdrew the vast majority of its forces in 2003, as the invasion of Iraq eliminated the need for a troop presence in Saudi Arabia. Today, many of the American military personnel still in Saudi Arabia are part of the U.S. Military Training Mission and do not provide an operational combat capability. Undoubtedly, USMTM personnel travel and work at different Saudi bases to complete their mission, but the primary ‘basing’ point is Eskan Village near Riyadh.”
Two sites in Ethiopia, at Dire Dawa and Arba Minch, were counted as active lily pad sites despite Vine’s notes indicating they were closed in 2012, and the closures were reconfirmed in 2015 and 2017.
The Chinese-controlled Hong Kong port of Qingdao was also included in Vine’s list despite China denying U.S. Navy access since 2019.
Another questionable claim was Clark Air Force Base listed as a “lily pad” site in the 2020 research, with the source noted as “news reports.” In June 1991, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo buried Clark in a foot of rain-soaked volcanic ash, collapsing hangars and buildings. The U.S. had already committed to leaving the base due to demands by the Marcos regime and completed the withdrawal in early 1992. The Philippines partially repaired the base, which remains under the control of the Philipines government and operates as Clark Freeport Zone and Clark International Airport. As of 2024, multiple news reports indicated that access to the U.S. military is still being discussed.
Non-existent Sites on U.S. Territory Counted as Active
Vine’s count included 36 sites located in U.S. territories, including Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the U.S. Virgin Islands, North Mariana Island, Wake Island, and Johnston Atoll. Of those, 24 were lily pad sites with no listed information or the data source used.
He wrote in his notes that “bases located in U.S. colonies (‘territories’) [are] in my count of bases abroad because these places lack full democratic incorporation into the United States. The Pentagon also considers these locations ‘overseas.’”
Google Maps view of Johnston Atoll runway and military buildings show the site is abandoned
However, there were other problems. For example, Johnston Atoll was counted as an active lily pad site, despite noting it is uninhabited and the airfield is closed. Satellite images show that the runway is overgrown and in complete disrepair, with almost all buildings on the island completely destroyed.
150 Sites Without Any Source
There were 150 sites counted as lily pads in Germany (40), Greece (1), Italy (14), Japan (33), South Korea (14), Portugal (11), Slovenia (1), Türkiye (3), the United Kingdom (2), and U.S. Territories (24), with no listed information on location, function, or data source. All relevant fields were blank.
Applying Vine’s Criteria to Other Nations Paints a Different Picture
The number of equivalent base sites and lily pads operated at overseas locations by the Russian Federation is commonly reported between 18 and 25. However, that consolidates all locations at the overseas sites, which is a different criterion applied to the U.S. by Vine and the Quincy Institute.
Here are three examples. In the occupied Georgian territory of Abkhazia, Russia’s 7th Military Base is counted as a single site. However, Russia maintains base sites at the Bamboura Airport, Gudauta, Ochamchire, and the Kodori Valley, as well as military-administrative buildings and medical facilities in Skuhumi, Gagra, Gudauta, New Athos, and Eshera. Russia has also started construction of a naval base in occupied Abkhazia.
The Russian presence in the self-declared and unrecognized Moldovian territory of Transnistria is commonly counted as a single base site at the Cobasna Ammunition Depot. However, Russian forces operate 15 military checkpoints, have a permanent presence at Tiraspol Airport, and have administrative offices in Tiraspol.
Russia is commonly credited with having two bases in Belarus, but the Russia-Ukraine War has shown that Russian forces have cooperative agreements providing access to all 17 military bases in the country. The use of all 17 bases by Russian forces at different points in time since 2021 is publicly documented.
When applying Vine’s methodology, one country and two areas under Russian occupation have 45 verifiable base sites.
Russian and Indian troops conducting joint anti-terror military training exercises at the Mahajan Fieldfiring Range in India – Photo Credit – Russian Ministry of Defense
When known cooperative agreements and joint annual military training exercises are included, where Russian troops may have a brief presence at host sites in other nations, Russia’s footprint expands at least to South Africa, China, Cuba, India, Iran, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, the Central African Republic, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and North Korea. As an example, a 2017 agreement signed between Egypt and Russia that went into effect in 2021 gives Russia cooperative access to 20 Egyptian Air Force bases. This is a similar agreement that the United States has in many countries, which Vine counted as active military sites in his books and data.
Not Enough Questions Asked and Unequal Comparisons
When reporting the news, extraordinary claims require a deeper analysis of the supporting evidence when the information is provided. There is still a case that 375 individual military sites are too many, even with the ongoing shift in geopolitics and increasing threats around the globe. The publicly available data didn’t support the claim that there are 740 U.S. military sites in 81 countries, and the repeated lack of a deep analysis was journalistic malfeasance.
Vine’s effort is commendable despite being flawed. It is critical to consider that his main point was identifying Pentagon spending and operations outside of the public eye. Somewhere in the corners of the DoD, something indicates that 150 sites with no public record may exist. On the surface, counting bases on U.S. territory as foreign seems disingenuous, but the Pentagon classifies them as overseas locations.
The Marine Corps War Dog Cemetery and Memorial In Guam, counted as a “base site” by David Vine – Photo Credit Dawn C. Montgomery, U.S. DoD
However, it is critical to expose that his data contains numerous factual errors that go beyond a handful of political gotchas or minor research mistakes. Including military sites that have been closed for years and, in some cases, decades. Counting multiple sites located in the same buildings while counting Diego Garcia as a single site and missing known overseas bases are glaring issues. Including golf courses, AAFES stores, and hotels as “base sites” with no distinction or footnotes is disingenuous. Adding the U.S. National War Dog Cemetery and Memorial at Naval Base Guam as a distinct military base is reprehensible.
Digging deeper into Vine’s notes, humanitarian aid warehouses were clearly questioned, with the thinly veiled suggestion the classification was a cover for something more sinister. Not everything done by the U.S. military is evil. The easiest example is the response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami, where the Pentagon did not wait for guidance from then-President George W. Bush. By the time the White House acknowledged the disaster, the U.S. Navy was three days into its operational plan. The lessons learned in 2004 resulted in President Barack Obama budgeting for the creation of forward-deployed humanitarian aid warehouses starting in 2010 and expansion of the program in 2012 and 2015.
And while the U.S. Navy was conducting a heroic humanitarian aid effort in southeast Asia through April 2005, U.S. troops were torturing Iraqis at Abu Ghraib. The U.S. military absolutely needs to be held accountable when war crimes are committed, and the American taxpayer deserves to know where their money is going.
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