Tag Archives: economy

Grocery and Gasoline Prices Surge

[Kirkland, WA – WBHG News] – It’s been more than five months since President Donald Trump was inaugurated after campaigning on controlling inflation to lower grocery and fuel prices. One hundred and fifty-two days later, has the situation improved?

On January 21, 2025, our team benchmarked grocery, fuel, and fast food prices in Kirkland to track over the next four years. This is our fifth update.

Based on actual retail prices, today’s grocery trip costs $2.18 more than last month and $12.05 more than our first trip in January. The price of Oscar Meyer hot dogs went up, and shrinkflation raised the prices of Prego pasta sauce, which lost an ounce, and Bounty paper towels. The “6=12” package of Bounty paper towels we purchased on January 21 is now equivalent to 9.15 rolls, without a change in packaging.

Today’s bill increased from $245.17 to $247.35, a 0.9% rise from last month.

A 12-gallon fill-up of regular gasoline has climbed $2.40 from a month ago and is now 63 cents a gallon higher than it was on January 21. Washington state Governor Bob Ferguson signed the state budget bill this morning, which will increase the gasoline tax by 6 cents on July 1, 2025.

The prices of popular fast food items at McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Domino’s did not change.

Here are the Products

We are tracking the prices of 27 popular items, including regular unleaded gasoline and meals from three major fast food brands.

ItemWeight, Volume, QuantityMay 21, 2025, Non-sale PriceJune 21, 2025
Non-sale Price
Change
Dairy Products
Whole Milk – Kroger Brand128 fluid ounces$3.69$3.69
Land O Lakes Unsalted Butter4 count – total weight 16 ounces$5.99$5.99
Kraft Singles American processed cheese food product24 individual slices – 16 ounces by weight $5.49$5.49
Household Products
Tide 3-in-1 Pods laundry detergent102 count – 85.0 ounces$24.99$24.99
Dawn Ultra dishwashing soap38 fluid ounces$6.49$6.49
Bounty 6=12 doubles paper towels
6 2-ply rolls, 50 11 inches X 10.2 inches sheets per roll, 211 square feet
$14.99 for 233 square feet$14.99 for 211 square feetSize dropped from 233 square feet to 211 – a $1.56 price increase
Breakfast Foods
Cheerios toasted oat cereal20 ounces$6.99$6.99
Starbucks Pike Place Roast ground coffee – medium roast18 ounces$14.49$14.49
Meat
Kroger Brand “Simple Truth” prepackaged natural ground beef – 90/1016 ounces, individual vacuum pack$9.99 for 90/10$9.99
Oscar Mayer Beef Franks – Classic10 count – total weight 15 ounces$5.49$5.99Increase, 50 cents
Infant/Baby
Pampers baby-dry stage 6 diapers50 count$28.99$28.99
Health and Beauty
Tampax Pearl Large Light Day tampons36 count$11.49$11.49
Charmin Ultra Strong 12=48 Mega roll toilet paper12 2-ply rolls, 220 3.92 inches x 4 inches sheets per roll, 287 square feet$16.99$16.99
Snack and Convenience Foods
Red Baron brick oven crust pepperoni pizza17.89 ounces$5.29$5.29
Hot Pockets Pepperoni Pizza flavor8 count – total weight 36 ounces$10.99$10.99
Oreo cookies18.12 ounces$4.99$4.99
Doritos – Cool Ranch Flavor – party size14.5 ounces$6.99$6.99
Coca-Cola – canned, sweetened with corn syrup12 count – 12 fluid ounce cans$10.99$10.99
Soups and Broths
Swanson chicken broth32 fluid ounces$2.99$2.99
Quick Meals
Prego Traditional jarred prepared pasta sauce, tomato23 ounces by weight$2.79 for 24 ounces$2.79 for 23 ouncesIncrease, 12 cents
Barilla rotini pasta16 ounces$1.99$1.99
Kraft Mac & Cheese Dinner, original flavor7.25 ounces$1.29$1.29
Wonder Bread, white, sliced20 ounces$3.49$3.49
Staples
C&H premium pure cane granulated sugar in bag64 ounces$4.99$4.99
Pillsbury Best All Purpose Flour, bleached and enriched80 ounces$5.69$5.69
Condiments
Hidden Valley Ranch ranch salad dressing16 fluid ounces$4.39$4.39
Heinz real tomato ketchup in the easy squeeze bottle20 ounces$3.99$3.99
Gasoline
Regular unleaded E-10 87-octane gasoline at the Totem Lake Fred Meyer location128 fluid ounces$4.19-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade fees$4.39-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade feesA 6-cent increase in state gasoline tax will go into effect on July 1, 2025.
Fast Food
McDonald’s Big Mac meal at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, locationBig Mac with 2 2-ounce beef patties, medium French fry, and medium 21 fluid ounce Coca-Cola with regular ice$11.39 before tax$11.39 before tax
Taco Bell 3 Crunch Taco Combo at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, location3 hard shell tacos with ground beef filling, included toppings, and a large 30 fluid ounces Pepsi with regular ice$8.69 before tax$8.69 before tax
Domino’s large Ultimate Pepperoni pizza for store pickup at the 100th Ave NE, Kirkland location14″ pizza with hand-tossed crust, pepperoni (extra), shredded parmesan asiago and provolone cheeses, and tomato sauce$21.99 before tax$21.99 before tax

Local Grocery Prices Climb Again

[Kirkland, WA – WBHG News] – It’s been four months since President Donald Trump was inaugurated after campaigning on controlling inflation to lower grocery and fuel prices. One hundred and twenty-one days later, has the situation improved?

On 21 January 2025, our team benchmarked grocery, fuel, and fast food prices in Kirkland to track over the next four years. This is our fourth update.

Based on actual retail prices, today’s grocery trip costs $1.90 more than last month and $9.87 more than our first trip in January. The price of Kraft Singles processed cheese and milk went down, and hamburger, Dawn dishwashing soap, and Tampax tampons went up.

Two products had very minor changes that didn’t significantly impact their prices. On January 21, the ground beef we used for our benchmark price was 16 ounces and 93/7 fat content. That changed to 91/9 in March and 90/10 in May. The weight for 102 Tide Pods 3-in-1 laundry detergent went from 84.7 ounces to 85.0 ounces.

Today’s bill climbed from $243.27 to $245.17, up 0.8%, an identical increase from last month.

A 12-gallon fill-up of regular gasoline was unchanged from a month ago and is 43 cents a gallon higher than January 21. Washington state Governor Bob Ferguson signed the state budget bill this morning, which will increase the gasoline tax by 6 cents on July 1, 2025.

The prices of popular fast food items at McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Domino’s did not change.

Here are the Products

We are tracking the prices of 27 popular items, regular unleaded gasoline, and meals from three popular fast food brands.

ItemWeight, Volume, QuantityApril 21, 2025, Non-sale PriceMay 21, 2025
Non-sale Price
Change
Dairy Products
Whole Milk – Kroger Brand128 fluid ounces$3.99$3.69Decrease, 30 cents
Land O Lakes Unsalted Butter4 count – total weight 16 ounces$5.99$5.99
Kraft Singles American processed cheese food product24 individual slices – 16 ounces by weight $5.79$5.49Decrease, 30 cents
Household Products
Tide 3-in-1 Pods laundry detergent102 count – 85.0 ounces$24.99$24.99Size increased from 84.7 ounces to 85.0 ounces
Dawn Ultra dishwashing soap38 fluid ounces$6.29$6.49Increase, 20 cents
Bounty 6=12 doubles paper towels
6 2-ply rolls, 50 11 inches X 10.2 inches sheets per roll, 233 square feet
$14.99$14.99
Breakfast Foods
Cheerios toasted oat cereal20 ounces$6.99$6.99
Starbucks Pike Place Roast ground coffee – medium roast18 ounces$14.49$14.49
Meat
Kroger Brand “Simple Truth” prepackaged natural ground beef – 90/1016 ounces, individual vacuum pack$9.49 for 91/9$9.99 for 90/10Increase, 50 cents with a 1% increase in fat content
Oscar Mayer Beef Franks – Classic10 count – total weight 15 ounces$5.49$5.49
Infant/Baby
Pampers baby-dry stage 6 diapers50 count$28.99$28.99
Health and Beauty
Tampax Pearl Large Light Day tampons36 count$9.79$11.49Increase, $1.70
Charmin Ultra Strong 12=48 Mega roll toilet paper12 2-ply rolls, 220 3.92 inches x 4 inches sheets per roll, 287 square feet$16.99$16.99
Snack and Convenience Foods
Red Baron brick oven crust pepperoni pizza17.89 ounces$5.29$5.29
Hot Pockets Pepperoni Pizza flavor8 count – total weight 36 ounces$10.99$10.99
Oreo cookies18.12 ounces$4.99$4.99
Doritos – Cool Ranch Flavor – party size14.5 ounces$6.99$6.99
Coca-Cola – canned, sweetened with corn syrup12 count – 12 fluid ounce cans$10.99$10.99
Soups and Broths
Swanson chicken broth32 fluid ounces$2.99$2.99
Quick Meals
Prego Traditional jarred prepared pasta sauce, tomato24 ounces by weight$2.79$2.79
Barilla rotini pasta16 ounces$1.99$1.99
Kraft Mac & Cheese Dinner, original flavor7.25 ounces$1.29$1.29
Wonder Bread, white, sliced20 ounces$3.49$3.49
Staples
C&H premium pure cane granulated sugar in bag64 ounces$4.99$4.99
Pillsbury Best All Purpose Flour, bleached and enriched80 ounces$5.69$5.69
Condiments
Hidden Valley Ranch ranch salad dressing16 fluid ounces$4.39$4.39
Heinz real tomato ketchup in the easy squeeze bottle20 ounces$3.99$3.99
Gasoline
Regular unleaded E-10 87-octane gasoline at the Totem Lake Fred Meyer location128 fluid ounces$4.19-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade fees$4.19-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade feesA 6-cent increase in state gasoline tax will go into effect on July 1, 2025.
Fast Food
McDonald’s Big Mac meal at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, locationBig Mac with 2 2-ounce beef patties, medium French fry, and medium 21 fluid ounce Coca-Cola with regular ice$11.39 before tax$11.39 before tax
Taco Bell 3 Crunch Taco Combo at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, location3 hard shell tacos with ground beef filling, included toppings, and a large 30 fluid ounces Pepsi with regular ice$8.69 before tax$8.69 before tax
Domino’s large Ultimate Pepperoni pizza for store pickup at the 100th Ave NE, Kirkland location14″ pizza with hand-tossed crust, pepperoni (extra), shredded parmesan asiago and provolone cheeses, and tomato sauce$21.99 before tax$21.99 before tax

Is the Port of Seattle a Tariff-caused Ghost Town

There have been many claims on TikTok and Facebook that there are no ships at the Port of Seattle, and pictures have been shared showing completely empty terminals with no shipping containers.

The claims are encouraging people to panic buy before facing empty shelves in one to two weeks, with the Port of Seattle illustrating the looming tariff-created consumer Armageddon.

But is it true?

Our team went down to the Port of Seattle to see for ourselves, talked to shipping experts, and reviewed port operations over the last six years. The truth usually lies in the middle, and that’s the case here.

The Port of Seattle has five terminals: Terminal 5, Terminal 13, Terminal 18, Terminal 30, and Terminal 86, the Grain Terminal, in Queen Anne.

Videos and posts claiming there are no ships or containers at the Port of Seattle show Terminal 46, which is off East Marginal Way, west of T-Mobile Park and Lumen Field. Hanjin Shipping Company operated the terminal until it went bankrupt in 2019. Since the bankruptcy, the 84-acre compound has not supported shipping traffic, and in mid-2023, the lot transitioned to storing new cars.

While the pictures circulating on social media showing a barren Terminal 46 with a U.S. Coast Guard vessel docked south of the cranes are authentic, they misrepresent the situation at the other terminals, which cover 500 acres, run by the Port of Seattle.

In 2023, the Northwest Seaport Alliance rejected a U.S. Coast Guard bid to buy 54 acres of Terminal 46, hoping that SSA Marine, which operates the terminals at the Port of Seattle, would lease the property. By mid-March, it was increasingly unlikely that Terminal 46 would be leased due to a long-term trend of declining traffic at the port and the need to replace the aging cranes.

In December 2024, the Port of Seattle Authority announced that Terminal 30 would close on January 1st due to third-party lawsuits over water quality and a years-long decline in traffic to the port. All shipping has been diverted to Terminal 5.

Traffic at the Port of Seattle has been in decline since 2018

After peaking in 2018, cargo traffic at the Port of Seattle has been in decline. There was a partial recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic ended, but cargo volumes in 2024 were almost 25% below the 2018 peak. At its height, 3.8 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) – that’s how cargo is measured – passed through Seattle. In 2024, the volume dropped to 2.97 million TEUs.

Shipping traffic has dropped so low in Seattle that SSA Marine, that is the company that runs the terminals at the Port of Seattle, only operates four days a week. That started in late 2023. In January, they added a fifth day due to increased ship traffic caused by the incoming Trump administration’s intention to implement tariffs.

In 2024, the Port of Tacoma had more traffic than Seattle

In addition to the five cargo terminals, the Port of Seattle runs the cruise ship terminals at Piers 66 and 91, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, the Port of Seattle, and the Port of Tacoma. While shipping traffic in Seattle has been on the decline, traffic in Tacoma has increased. By the end of 2024, TEUs at Tacoma exceeded Seattle by 33%.

By itself, the Port of Seattle is the seventh largest on the West Coast. Combined with Tacoma, it becomes the third largest behind Los Angeles and Long Beach, both in California.

The Port of Seattle is not a “ghost town”

Our April 29 inspection of Terminals 5, 13, and 18 revealed that three ships were being unloaded at the Port of Seattle. There were fewer cargo containers, particular in the area between State Highway 99 and East Marginal Way south of the stadiums, while other areas operated as normal.

Some of the railroad sidings at the port and along Highway 99 were empty, but it is important to note that our visit captured a single moment in time. At the time of our visit, there were no cargo ships anchored along Alki Beach in Elliott Bay, waiting to be loaded or unloaded.

We also saw significant truck activity inside and outside of the port, with containers leaving and arriving. Most of the activity was at Terminal 5.

According to the Northwest Seaport Alliance Cargo Operations website, 35 vessels are scheduled to arrive in Seattle from April 28 to May 24.

Most economists expect worsening supply chain disruptions in May

While the claims that the Port of Seattle is a “ghost town” are exaggerations, most economists and supply chain experts expect increasing problems as cargo ship traffic to U.S. ports is set to decline by 30% in May.

Analyzing monthly port utilization is challenging because many companies increased their orders in late 2024 and the first two months of 2025, increasing shipping traffic. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, caused by a 41.3% surge in imports.

Now that global tariffs have been in place for almost a month, an increasing number of companies are delaying or canceling their orders. The surge of orders at the end of the year boosted cargo data. For now, the pullback is essentially a wash.

Local Grocery and Gasoline Prices Climb Compared to Last Month

[Kirkland, WA – WBHG News] – It’s been three months since President Donald Trump was inaugurated after campaigning on controlling inflation to lower grocery and fuel prices. Ninety-one days later, has the situation improved?

On 21 January 2025, our team benchmarked grocery, fuel, and fast food prices in Kirkland to track over the next four years. This is our third update.

Based on actual retail prices, today’s grocery trip costs $1.88 more than last month and $7.94 more than our first trip in January. The price of Land-O-Lakes butter decreased, and the price of Oscar Meyer All-Beef Classic Hot Dogs increased.

The quantity of Bounty 6=12 Doubles Paper Towels shrank 37 square feet, the equivalent of 1.65 rolls. Due to shrinkflation, the cost is $2.38 more expensive, despite selling for the same price of $14.99.

The total bill climbed from $241.39 to $243.27, up 0.8%.

A 12-gallon fill-up of regular gasoline increased by $3.60, a 7.2% increase from a month ago and 43 cents a gallon higher than January 21.

The prices of popular fast food items at McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Domino’s did not change.

Here are the Products

We are tracking the prices of 27 popular items, regular unleaded gasoline, and meals from three popular fast food brands.

ItemWeight, Volume, QuantityMarch 20, 2025, Non-sale PriceApril 21, 2025
Non-sale Price
Change
Dairy Products
Whole Milk – Kroger Brand128 fluid ounces$3.99$3.99
Land O Lakes Unsalted Butter4 count – total weight 16 ounces$6.99$5.99Decrease, $1.00
Kraft Singles American processed cheese food product24 individual slices – 16 ounces by weight $5.79$5.79
Household Products
Tide 3-in-1 Pods laundry detergent102 count – 84.7 ounces$24.99$24.99
Dawn Ultra dishwashing soap38 fluid ounces$6.29$6.29
Bounty 6=12 doubles paper towels
6 2-ply rolls, 50 11 inches X 10.2 inches sheets per roll, 233 square feet
$14.99 for 270 square feet$14.99 for 233 square feetTotal square footage reduced by 37, equal to 1.65 rolls of paper towels, price increase of $2.38 due to shrinkflation
Breakfast Foods
Cheerios toasted oat cereal20 ounces$6.99$6.99
Starbucks Pike Place Roast ground coffee – medium roast18 ounces$14.49$14.49
Meat
Kroger Brand “Simple Truth” prepackaged natural ground beef – 91/916 ounces individual vacuum pack$9.49$9.49
Oscar Mayer Beef Franks – Classic10 count – total weight 15 ounces$4.99$5.49Increase, 50 cents
Infant/Baby
Pampers baby-dry stage 6 diapers50 count$28.99$28.99
Health and Beauty
Tampax Pearl Large Light Day tampons36 count$9.79$9.79
Charmin Ultra Strong 12=48 Mega roll toilet paper12 2-ply rolls, 220 3.92 inches x 4 inches sheets per roll, 287 square feet$16.99$16.99
Snack and Convenience Foods
Red Baron brick oven crust pepperoni pizza17.89 ounces$5.29$5.29
Hot Pockets Pepperoni Pizza flavor8 count – total weight 36 ounces$10.99$10.99
Oreo cookies18.12 ounces$4.99$4.99
Doritos – Cool Ranch Flavor – party size14.5 ounces$6.99$6.99
Coca-Cola – canned, sweetened with corn syrup12 count – 12 fluid ounce cans$10.99$10.99
Soups and Broths
Swanson chicken broth32 fluid ounces$2.99$2.99
Quick Meals
Prego Traditional jarred prepared pasta sauce, tomato24 ounces by weight$2.79$2.79
Barilla rotini pasta16 ounces$1.99$1.99
Kraft mac & cheese dinner, original flavor7.25 ounces$1.29$1.29
Wonder Bread, white, sliced20 ounces$3.49$3.49
Staples
C&H premium pure can granulated sugar in bag64 ounces$4.99$4.99
Pillsbury Best All Purpose Flour, bleached and enriched80 ounces$5.69$5.69
Condiments
Hidden Valley Ranch ranch salad dressing16 fluid ounces$4.39$4.39
Heinz real tomato ketchup in the easy squeeze bottle20 ounces$3.99$3.99
Gasoline
Regular unleaded E-10 87-octane gasoline at the Totem Lake Fred Meyer location128 fluid ounces$3.89-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade fees $4.19-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade feesPrice for 12 gallons of gas increased $3.60.
Fast Food
McDonald’s Big Mac meal at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, locationBig Mac with 2 2-ounce beef patties, medium French fry, and medium 21 fluid ounce Coca-Cola with regular ice$11.39 before tax$11.39 before tax
Taco Bell 3 Crunch Taco Combo at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, location3 hard shell tacos with ground beef filling, included toppings, and a large 30 fluid ounces Pepsi with regular ice$8.69 before tax$8.69 before tax
Domino’s large Ultimate Pepperoni pizza for store pickup at the 100th Ave NE, Kirkland location14″ pizza with hand-tossed crust, pepperoni (extra), shredded parmesan asiago and provolone cheeses, and tomato sauce$21.99 before tax$21.99 before tax

China Orders Boeing Jet Purchases Stopped

The Chinese government has ordered domestic airlines to stop accepting deliveries of Boeing airliners in retaliation for U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to a report in Bloomberg.

China also directed carriers to stop buying airline parts and other related components from all U.S. companies.

Boeing (BA) dropped 2.36% on the news, closing down -3.76 at 155.52. At the time of publication, Boeing had not responded to our request for comment. Airbus SE climbed 1.14% (+0.45), closing at 39.92.

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the situation on his personal social media network, Truth Social, saying, “Interestingly, they [China] just reneged on the big Boeing deal, saying that they will ‘not take possession’ of fully committed to aircraft.”

On April 8, Boeing reported that 130 commercial aircraft, including 105 737s, were delivered in the first quarter of 2025. Boeing does not provide a breakdown of deliveries by customer or country. Spirit AeroSystems builds the 737 fuselages in Wichita, Kansas, and they are shipped by train to Renton, Washington, for final assembly. Boeing employees approximately 67,800 people in Washington state between its Commercial Airplane and Defense, Space, and Security Programs.

During the first Trump administration in 2018, the U.S. aircraft manufacturer opened the Boeing Completion Center in Zhoushan, China, where aircraft receive their interiors and airline livery before delivery to Southeast Asian customers, including China. Southeast Asia is Boeing’s second-largest market, behind North America.

China and Russia Attempts to Build Competing Aircraft

China started domestic development of the COMAC C919 in 2008, a passenger plane similar to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737-MAX. Flight testing started in 2017, and Eastern China Airlines took delivery of the first aircraft in 2023. The first commercial flight outside of China was in June 2024.

The largest customer is Tibet Airlines, which ordered 40 aircraft with high-altitude modifications. Russian domestic airlines were forced to cancel their orders for the C919 in 2022 and 2023 due to U.S. sanctions.

In 2015, China started developing the C929, a widebody jet to compete against the Airbus A330neo and the Boeing 787. Three years later, a memorandum was signed with Russia to jointly develop the plane, creating the China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Corporation Limited company (CRCAIC). The aircraft was dubbed the CR929 (China-Russia).

The COVID-19 pandemic and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine War stalled development, and in 2023, Russia quietly withdrew from the CRCAIC for economic reasons. The airplane was renamed the C929, with the first prototype expected in 2027.

Russia announced its intent to produce a 737 and A-320neo competitor in 2005, designated the Yakovlev MC-21. The first deliveries were supposed to be in 2017, but numerous delays have plagued development, including the COVID-19 pandemic and its reliance on U.S. jet engines. Eight prototypes with a lower-efficiency Russian engine have been built. Commercial deliveries with a Russian-designed engine that would match 2005 specifications are delayed to 2027.

Just a Week After Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs, Judgement Day Arrived

After insisting for a week that tariffs against the world would never be reversed, the White House blinked on Wednesday afternoon. President Donald Trump announced he was “pausing” most of the tariffs issued last week for 90 days and increased tariffs on China to 145%. The stock market went on to have its best days in history, with the Dow Jones jumping 7.7%, closing at 40,601.64.

What caused Judgement Day to arrive only seven days, almost to the hour, when “Liberation Day” was announced?

U.S. Treasury Yields Surged, Setting off Alarms

Financial and economic experts were watching the $29 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds with growing dismay. On Tuesday morning, the yield on 10-year bonds had gone vertical. In the span of 36 hours, the rate crossed 4.0% and broke through 4.5%. Holders of U.S. treasuries were dumping their bonds, and it was on a wide scale and accelerating.

Japan was the biggest seller, but other nations were involved. Sitting on the sidelines was China, which holds $760 billion in treasury bonds. If the White House ignored this blinking red warning light, yields would continue to increase, and eventually, new sales of treasury bonds would start to decline. The world was saying it had lost confidence in the U.S. leadership at the most fundamental level.

Wednesday Morning was Seen as Judgement Day

Before the markets opened on Wednesday, financial experts and economists saw 9 April as “judgement day.” They expected the White House to do one of two things: pause or end tariffs due to the accelerating sell-off of U.S. treasuries, or continue to insist that the tariffs enacted on “Liberation Day” would remain in place. One path would signal to the world that the White House was getting the message, while the other path led to potentially irreversible economic damage.

What Caused the Accusations of Market Manipulation

Since 3 April, Trump and his surrogates have repeatedly advised investors to ignore the plunging stock markets and buy into the dip. On 8 April, a tweet stating that the Trump administration would announce a 90-day pause on tariffs sent the stock market soaring. A few hours later, the White House declared the tweet was false, vehemently denying there were any discussions on pausing tariffs, sending the market into another crash.

On Wednesday, approximately four hours before President Trump announced the “pause” on tariffs, he wrote on his personal social media platform, Truth Social, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT [Emphasis Trump – Ed.]” At 1:30 PM Eastern Time, he announced the change in policy, and the stock market soared. In the minutes before his announcement, there was a surge in activity among equity traders.

However, during his announcement, Trump referenced the bond markets and said that people were clearly showing signs of being “afraid.”

Just the day before, he called those selling stocks “PANICANS.” That accusation aged like room temperature milk on a summer day.

What Were the Unseen Drivers

For those watching from the 50,000-foot view, there were many indications that the Trump administration would have to do something. The policy wasn’t just causing economic damage. It was creating political damage, too.

Over the weekend, Presidential Counselor and tariff plan architect Peter Navarro hit billionaire Elon Musk after he called for a tariff-free zone with Europe, calling Musk a “car assembler.” On Monday, Musk wrote that Navarro was a “moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.” The White House tried to spin the public spat as “boys will be boys.” It was reported that on Tuesday, Musk was a 100% “PANICAN,” privately urging the White House to fire Navarro.

Additionally, multiple high-profile podcasters and influencers started turning on the White House, Navarro, and each other. On the Sunday morning talk show circuit and into Tuesday, several Republican senators and representatives called for the White House to reconsider its tariff policy.

What Happened on Thursday

On Thursday, the Dow lost 2.5%, closing at 39,593.66 (-1,014.79), as investors remained glum about Chinese tariffs and others conducted profit taking. Speaking with CNN, Navarro laughed off today’s decline, calling the suggestion that the market volatility of the last week was caused by Trump’s governing style “pure spin.”

“You had the highest rise in stock market history yesterday,” Nararro said, “Of course, there’s gonna be a little pullback…It’s just normal retracement after a big day. It’s no big deal.”

There were mixed signs from U.S. treasuries in today’s data, after closing at 4.392% on Wednesday, the yield on 10-year bonds climbed to 4.425%. However, there was still strong demand in today’s 30-year bond auction, with $22 billion sold with yields around 4.83%.

Trump was true to himself, telling the press that tariffs could be brought back sooner if countries refuse to negotiate with the U.S., adding that he could extend the current pause beyond 90 days. “We’ll have to see what happens at the time.”

Did Trump Conduct Market Manipulation

In our assessment, the optics are bad, but the truth matters. It is a stretch to conclude this was planned market manipulation. The financial management advisors and economists we talked to universally said the data on Wednesday morning contained the signs that something had to happen.

The White House’s new tariff plan doesn’t help Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Boeing (BA), Apple (APPL), Alphabet (GOOG), or Microsoft (MSFT), their investors, or their billionaire founders and leaders. This was a strange way to “help” friends and allies.

Disclosures: The author of this story owns shares of Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (APPL). He is also a former employee of Amazon, last working for the company in 2016, and Microsoft, last working as a consultant in 2022. They have not conducted any trades in AMZN, MSFT, or APPL in 2025.

Local Grocery and Gasoline Prices Fall Slightly Compared to Last Month

[Kirkland, WA – WBHG News] – It’s been two months since President Donald Trump was inaugurated after campaigning on controlling inflation to lower grocery and fuel prices. Fifty-nine days later, has the situation improved?

On 21 January 2025, our team benchmarked grocery, fuel, and fast food prices in Kirkland to track over the next four years. This is our second update.

Based on actual retail prices, today’s grocery trip costs $2.26 less compared to last month and $6.06 more than our first trip in January. The price of Kraft Singles cheese, Tide 3-in-1 pods, and Oscar Meyer All-Beef Franks decreased, and the price of Cheerios increased. The total bill dropped from $243.65 to $241.39, down 1.0%. The quantity of Tide 3-in-1 pods dropped from 112 to 102, but the price per pod fell 1/2 a cent each. General Mills stopped selling the 18-ounce Cheerios. It has been replaced by the 20-ounce “giant size,” which is 1.7 cents per ounce more expensive.

Oreo cookies were tagged with a “new lower price” despite no price change from a month ago.

A 12-gallon fill-up of regular gasoline decreased by $2.40, a 5.3% decrease from a month ago but still 4.7% higher than January 21.

The prices of popular fast food items at McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Domino’s did not change.

Here are the Products

We are tracking the prices of 27 popular items, regular unleaded gasoline, and meals from three popular fast food brands.

ItemWeight, Volume, QuantityFebruary 20, 2025, Non-sale PriceMarch 20, 2025
Non-sale Price
Change
Dairy Products
Whole Milk – Kroger Brand128 fluid ounces$3.99$3.99
Land O Lakes Unsalted Butter4 count – total weight 16 ounces$6.99$6.99
Kraft Singles American processed cheese food product24 individual slices – 16 ounces by weight $6.29$5.79Decrease, 50 cents
Household Products
Tide 3-in-1 Pods laundry detergent102 count – 84.7 ounces$27.99 for 112, weight 93 ounces$24.99Decrease, 56 cents, price per pod decrease, 1/2 a cent
Dawn Ultra dishwashing soap38 fluid ounces$6.29$6.29
Bounty 6=12 doubles paper towels
6 2-ply rolls, 58 11 inches X 10.2 inches sheets per roll, 270 square feet
$14.99$14.99
Breakfast Foods
Cheerios toasted oat cereal20 ounces$5.99 for 18 ounces$6.99Increase, 30 cents, price per ounce increase, 1.7 cents
Starbucks Pike Place Roast ground coffee – medium roast18 ounces$14.49$14.49
Meat
Kroger Brand “Simple Truth” prepackaged natural ground beef – 91/916 ounces individual vacuum pack$9.49$9.49
Oscar Mayer Beef Franks – Classic10 count – total weight 15 ounces$6.49$4.99Decrease, $1.50
Infant/Baby
Pampers baby-dry stage 6 diapers50 count$28.99$28.99
Health and Beauty
Tampax Pearl Large Light Day tampons36 count$9.79$9.79
Charmin Ultra Strong 12=48 Mega roll toilet paper12 2-ply rolls, 220 3.92 inches x 4 inches sheets per roll, 287 square feet$16.99$16.99
Snack and Convenience Foods
Red Baron brick oven crust pepperoni pizza17.89 ounces$4.99$5.29
Hot Pockets Pepperoni Pizza flavor8 count – total weight 36 ounces$10.99$10.99
Oreo cookies18.12 ounces$4.99$4.99
Doritos – Cool Ranch Flavor – party size14.5 ounces$6.99$6.99
Coca-Cola – canned, sweetened with corn syrup12 count – 12 fluid ounce cans$9.99$10.99
Soups and Broths
Swanson chicken broth32 fluid ounces$2.99$2.99
Quick Meals
Prego Traditional jarred prepared pasta sauce, tomato24 ounces by weight$2.79$2.79
Barilla rotini pasta16 ounces$1.99$1.99
Kraft mac & cheese dinner, original flavor7.25 ounces$1.29$1.29
Wonder Bread, white, sliced20 ounces$3.49$3.49
Staples
C&H premium pure can granulated sugar in bag64 ounces$4.99$4.99
Pillsbury Best All Purpose Flour, bleached and enriched80 ounces$5.69$5.69
Condiments
Hidden Valley Ranch ranch salad dressing16 fluid ounces$4.39$4.39
Heinz real tomato ketchup in the easy squeeze bottle20 ounces$3.99$3.99
Gasoline
Regular unleaded E-10 87-octane gasoline at the Totem Lake Fred Meyer location128 fluid ounces$4.09-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade fees $3.89-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade feesPrice for 12 gallons of gas decreased $2.40.
Fast Food
McDonald’s Big Mac meal at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, locationBigMac with 2 2-ounce beef patties, medium French fry, and medium 21 fluid ounce Coca-Cola with regular ice$11.39 before tax$11.39 before tax
Taco Bell 3 Crunch Taco Combo at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, location3 hard shell tacos with ground beef filling, included toppings, and a large 30 fluid ounces Pepsi with regular ice$8.69 before tax$8.69 before tax
Domino’s large Ultimate Pepperoni pizza for store pickup at the 100th Ave NE, Kirkland location14″ pizza with hand-tossed crust, pepperoni (extra), shredded parmesan asiago and provolone cheeses, and tomato sauce$21.99 before tax$21.99 before tax

Local Grocery and Gasoline Prices Climb Despite Trump’s Pledge to Curb Inflation

[Kirkland, WA – WBHG News] – It’s been a month since President Donald Trump was inaugurated after campaigning on controlling inflation to lower grocery and fuel prices. A month later, has the situation improved?

On 21 January 2025, our team benchmarked grocery, fuel, and fast food prices in Kirkland to track over the next four years. This is our first update.

Based on actual retail prices, today’s grocery trip costs $8.32 more compared to last month. The price of diapers, Coca-Cola, and frozen pizza went up while the cost of coffee and bread went down. The total bill climbed from $235.33 to $243.65, up 3.5%. Most of that jump was caused by shrinkflation.

Two products, Barilla rotini pasta, and Kraft Macaroni and Cheese, were marked with a tag showing a “new lower price,” despite no price change from last month.

A 12-gallon fill-up of regular gasoline increased by $4.56, a 10% increase from a month ago.

The only change to fast food prices was at McDonald’s, where a Big Mac meal is now 10 cents cheaper.

Here are the Products

We are tracking the prices of 27 popular items, regular unleaded gasoline, and meals from three popular fast food brands.

ItemWeight, Volume, QuantityJanuary 20, 2025, Non-sale PriceFebruary 20, 2025
Non-sale Price
Change
Dairy Products
Whole Milk – Kroger Brand128 fluid ounces$3.99$3.99
Land O Lakes Unsalted Butter4 count – total weight 16 ounces$6.99$6.99
Kraft Singles American processed cheese food product24 individual slices – 16 ounces by weight $6.29$6.29
Household Products
Tide 3-in-1 Pods laundry detergent112 count – 93 ounces$27.99$27.99
Dawn Ultra dishwashing soap38 fluid ounces$6.29$6.29
Bounty 6=12 doubles paper towels
6 2-ply rolls, 58 11 inches X 10.2 inches sheets per roll, 270 square feet
$14.99$14.99
Breakfast Foods
Cheerios toasted oat cereal18 ounces$5.99$5.99
Starbucks Pike Place Roast ground coffee – medium roast18 ounces$14.99$14.49Decrease, 50 cents
Meat
Kroger Brand “Simple Truth” prepackaged natural ground beef – 91/916 ounces individual vacuum pack$9.49$9.49
Oscar Mayer Beef Franks – Classic10 count – total weight 15 ounces$6.49$6.49
Infant/Baby
Pampers baby-dry stage 6 diapers64 count$28.99$37.11Count dropped from 64 to 50. Unit price increased from 45 cents per diaper to 58 cents.
Health and Beauty
Tampax Pearl Large Light Day tampons36 count$9.79$9.79
Charmin Ultra Strong 12=48 Mega roll toilet paper12 2-ply rolls, 220 3.92 inches x 4 inches sheets per roll, 287 square feet$16.99$16.99
Snack and Convenience Foods
Red Baron brick oven crust pepperoni pizza17.89 ounces$4.99$5.29Increase, 20 cents
Hot Pockets Pepperoni Pizza flavor8 count – total weight 36 ounces$10.99$10.99
Oreo cookies18.12 ounces$4.99$4.99
Doritos – Cool Ranch Flavor – party size14.5 ounces$6.99$6.99
Coca-Cola – canned, sweetened with corn syrup12 count – 12 fluid ounce cans$9.99$10.99Increase, $1.00
Soups and Broths
Swanson chicken broth32 fluid ounces$2.99$2.99
Quick Meals
Prego Traditional jarred prepared pasta sauce, tomato24 ounces by weight$2.79$2.79
Barilla rotini pasta16 ounces$1.99$1.99
Kraft mac & cheese dinner, original flavor7.25 ounces$1.29$1.29
Wonder Bread, white, sliced20 ounces$3.99$3.49Decrease, 50 cents
Staples
C&H premium pure can granulated sugar in bag64 ounces$4.99$4.99
Pillsbury Best All Purpose Flour, bleached and enriched80 ounces$5.69$5.69
Condiments
Hidden Valley Ranch ranch salad dressing16 fluid ounces$4.39$4.39
Heinz real tomato ketchup in the easy squeeze bottle20 ounces$3.99$3.99
Gasoline
Regular unleaded E-10 87-octane gasoline at the Totem Lake Fred Meyer location128 fluid ounces$3.71-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade fees $4.09-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade feesPrice for 12 gallons of gas increased $4.56.
Fast Food
McDonald’s Big Mac meal at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, locationBigMac with 2 2-ounce beef patties, medium French fry, and medium 21 fluid ounce Coca-Cola with regular ice$11.49 before tax$11.39 before taxDecrease, 10 cents
Taco Bell 3 Crunch Taco Combo at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, location3 hard shell tacos with ground beef filling, included toppings, and a large 30 fluid ounces Pepsi with regular ice$8.69 before tax$8.69 before tax
Domino’s large Ultimate Pepperoni pizza for store pickup at the 100th Ave NE, Kirkland location14″ pizza with hand-tossed crust, pepperoni (extra), shredded parmesan asiago and provolone cheeses, and tomato sauce$21.99 before tax$21.99 before tax

Can Trump Keep his Promise to Lower Grocery Prices

[Kirkland, WA – WBHG News] – During the 2024 United States elections, inflation and grocery prices took center stage, with the blame for post-COVID inflation placed on politicians from both parties, corporations, and private equity firms. President Donald Trump campaigned on the promise to lower grocery prices, while his opponents and some economists argued that the White House doesn’t have much direct control over the price of Kraft mac and cheese or a gallon of gasoline.

Inflation at the grocery store has been a very real problem for Americans since 2020, caused by COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. The reasons why prices have continued to increase, and inflation has remained stubborn are complex and go beyond national politics. According to the Federal Reserve Bank, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked in 2022 at 8.0% and has since dropped to 3.2% in 2024. Economists prefer to see an inflation rate between 2% and 3%, so the U.S. economy remains slightly overheated. Additionally, CPI doesn’t account for shrinkflation, when companies make a product smaller without changing the price.

During Trump’s inauguration, our team benchmarked grocery, fuel, and fast food prices in Kirkland to track over the next four years. Will grocery prices drop now that the Republicans have control of the House, Senate, the White House, and confirmed a majority of the sitting Supreme Court justices?

Methodology

Our team established the following rules for identifying what items to track and how to keep the methodology as fair as possible.

  • We benchmarked prices using national brands, which are less impacted by local market fluctuations, with two exceptions. We benchmarked milk based on the Kroger store brand and ground beef using Kroger’s Simple Truth organic brand. Dairies in the United States are regional, which impacts local prices and supply. Four corporations control most of the meat product distribution and pricing in the United States, and the house Kroger brand provides a fixed product with a known weight.
  • We decided not to track the price of eggs or poultry due to the bird flu epidemic, which is decimating egg and poultry production across the United States. The current outbreak is outside of the control of the previous and current administration. Further, the egg cases in the local stores were practically empty and missing most of their price tags.
  • We did not benchmark the price of fresh produce because Washington is one of the largest producers of some items in the country, such as apples. This increases our supply and variety, which lowers our regional prices. In contrast, fresh corn and lettuce are more expensive in the winter months compared to the southern United States due to the need to import these items over very long distances. Additionally, prices are impacted by acts of God and weather, creating another layer of complexity.
  • The size of each product was carefully recorded, including the unit count and the weight or volume of each unit within the package. This will enable our team to track shrinkflation, which could hide a price increase.
  • We will recheck the prices once a month on the 20th. In the event that one of the stores we benchmarked is closed on the 20th, we will check prices on the closest opening day after the 20th. If a location permanently closes, we will record prices as the next closest location, preferably within Kirkland.
  • Prices from McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Domino’s were logged using their respective apps and are determined without using any coupons, incentives, or benefits from customer loyalty programs.

We Couldn’t Benchmark Every Item on our List

During our audit, we noted that almost all items were on sale or had new price reductions in the Kroger-branded stores in the Kirkland area. Some of the sale tags showed the normal retail price, while others didn’t. We were unable to benchmark shampoo, toothpaste, razors, canned and frozen vegetables, and other popular items.

In other cases, there were problems with the posted price tags. For example, we wanted to benchmark Cascade automatic dishwashing pods, which is the most popular national brand. However, the item on the shell was 62 count, while the price tag reflected a 57 count product. We could not determine if the 57 count price was an error or misplaced under the slightly larger product being sold or if Cascade is rolling out a smaller package.

We photographed each product with its published price tag, documenting the count, weight, and volume.

Here are the Products

We will track the prices of 27 popular items, regular unleaded gasoline, and three popular fast food brands. We will publish our next update on February 21.

ItemWeight, Volume, QuantityJanuary 20, 2025, Non-sale PriceMost Recent PriceChange
Dairy Products
Whole Milk – Kroger Brand128 fluid ounces$3.99
Land O Lakes Unsalted Butter4 count – total weight 16 ounces$6.99
Kraft Singles American processed cheese food product24 individual slices – 16 ounces by weight $6.29
Household Products
Tide 3-in-1 Pods laundry detergent112 count – 93 ounces$27.99
Dawn Ultra dishwashing soap38 fluid ounces$6.29
Bounty 6=12 doubles paper towels
6 2-ply rolls, 58 11 inches X 10.2 inches sheets per roll, 270 square feet
$14.99
Breakfast Foods
Cheerios toasted oat cereal18 ounces$5.99
Starbucks Pike Place Roast ground coffee – medium roast18 ounces$14.99
Meat
Kroger Brand “Simple Truth” prepackaged natural ground beef – 91/916 ounces individual vacuum pack$9.49
Oscar Mayer Beef Franks – Classic10 count – total weight 15 ounces$6.49
Infant/Baby
Pampers baby-dry stage 6 diapers64 count$28.99
Health and Beauty
Tampax Pearl Large Light Day tampons36 count$9.79
Charmin Ultra Strong 12=48 Mega roll toilet paper12 2-ply rolls, 220 3.92 inches x 4 inches sheets per roll, 287 square feet$16.99
Snack and Convenience Foods
Red Baron brick oven crust pepperoni pizza17.89 ounces$4.99
Hot Pockets Pepperoni Pizza flavor8 count – total weight 36 ounces$10.99
Oreo cookies18.12 ounces$4.99
Doritos – Cool Ranch Flavor – party size14.5 ounces$6.99
Coca-Cola – canned, sweetened with corn syrup12 count – 12 fluid ounce cans$9.99
Soups and Broths
Swanson chicken broth32 fluid ounces$2.99
Quick Meals
Prego Traditional jarred prepared pasta sauce, tomato24 ounces by weight$2.79
Barilla rotini pasta16 ounces$1.99
Kraft mac & cheese dinner, original flavor7.25 ounces$1.29
Wonder Bread, white, sliced20 ounces$3.99
Staples
C&H premium pure can granulated sugar in bag64 ounces$4.99
Pillsbury Best All Purpose Flour, bleached and enriched80 ounces$5.69
Condiments
Hidden Valley Ranch ranch salad dressing16 fluid ounces$4.39
Heinz real tomato ketchup in the easy squeeze bottle20 ounces$3.99
Gasoline
Regular unleaded E-10 87-octane gasoline at the Totem Lake Fred Meyer location128 fluid ounces$3.71-9/10, which includes 18.4 cents federal motor fuel tax, 49.4 cents Washington state gasoline tax, and approximately 43.4 cents for Washington state cap and trade fees
Fast Food
McDonald’s Big Mac meal at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, locationBigMac with 2 2-ounce beef patties, medium French fry, and medium 21 fluid ounce Coca-Cola with regular ice$11.49 before tax
Taco Bell 3 Crunch Taco Combo at the 124th Ave NE, Kirkland, location3 hard shell tacos with ground beef filling, included toppings, and a large 30 fluid ounces Pepsi with regular ice$8.69 before tax
Domino’s large Ultimate Pepperoni pizza for store pickup at the 100th Ave NE, Kirkland location14″ pizza with hand-tossed crust, pepperoni (extra), shredded parmesan asiago and provolone cheeses, and tomato sauce$21.99 before tax

You’re paying to subsidize a sub-standard minimum wage

The last time Congress increased the federal minimum wage was in 2007, reaching the current $7.25 an hour on September 20, 2009. The debate to raise the minimum has raged since the depths of the Great Recession to today. As of this writing, only seven states have no minimum wage laws or have a minimum wage below the federal standard.

The benchmark for a new federal minimum wage is $15.00 per hour, $31,176 per year. The annual pay rate assumes a 40 hour work week with some degree of paid sick time, paid holidays, and paid vacation. It also does not account for federal or state income taxes, FICA, or employee benefits contributions.

Twenty-nine states have already passed legislation supportive of a higher minimum wage across the political spectrum. Florida voters approved a $15 per hour minimum wage by 2026, with the first jump to $10 per hour in September 2021. Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and West Virginia, red or purple states already have higher wage standards. Eighteen states have passed laws or Constitutional amendments that index state minimum wage based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or other cost indexes. In contrast, Oklahoma still has a law on the books that employers with fewer than ten employees can pay as little as $2 per hour if no federal minimum wage existed.

According to the MIT Living Wage Calculator, no one can survive in any state making the federal minimum wage. It is not even close. In Mississippi, a childless individual would have to make $13.99 per hour to earn a “living wage.” For someone living in Jackson or Mobile, the number would be higher.

Corporate America has little incentive to support an increase in minimum wage due to WOTC

In 1996, the Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996 created the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC). The legislation provides tax credits for employers that hire marginalized people during their first year of employment. The credits are payroll and hours-based, ranging from 20% to 40% of the total salary in the first year of work. The full tax credit in some edge cases can be $10,000 per year. Tax credits provide a dollar-for-dollar deduction on taxes, which is different than a tax write off which provides a deduction on gross income.

An employer can receive the tax credit by hiring an individual in a wide range of categories. Ex-felons, anyone receiving aid through a state-approved plan or TANF, a qualified veteran, SNAP recipients, or the disabled collecting SSI are all eligible. The federal government also has created Designated Community Resident (DCR) zones, called Empowerment Zones, Enterprise Communities, or Renewal Communities. People living in these zones can be eligible.

Created to benefit small businesses, WOTC requires paperwork and accounting that is littered with legal landmines. Smaller business owners frequently avoid the red tape or aren’t even aware of the programs. Large employers, on the other hand, have entire teams and software to manage the process.

An employee only has to work 120 hours for an employer to get a tax credit equal to 20% of their salary, at federal minimum wage that comes out to $174. The average tenure of an employee working in retail or fast/casual dining? Six weeks. A staffing company supporting an employer such as Amazon at its fulfillment centers can stack these credits as employees churn through their doors. 

You are paying for welfare, but you’re not paying who you think you are

At the current federal minimum wage, a feedback loop of corporate welfare creates a system that enriches employers, mostly Fortune 1000 and large enterprises, in three different ways. The current tax code incentivizes employers to hold the line at $7.25 because the benefits go far beyond cheap labor.

Employers benefit first from the tax credits as mentioned above. A single person making $7.25 an hour will qualify for SNAP benefits in most cases. The reality is most people who collect food stamps are working poor. A United States Census report of SNAP recipients indicated 79% live in working households. For married couples, the rate jumped to 84%. Among those collecting SNAP benefits, over 16,000 active-duty soldiers.

Once you remove the working poor and their children, disabled Americans, and the elderly, less than five percent of people receiving food stamps are unemployed adults. In fiscal 2020, SNAP benefits cost  $89.6 billion. The average taxpayer contributed $31.26 annually to assist the employable out of work. However, another $594 per taxpayer went to corporate welfare, artificially propping up employer payrolls with SNAP benefits.

By keeping the minimum wage low, employers continue to have a large pool of WOTC eligible hires, perpetuating the tax credits. The American taxpayer indirectly supports employer payroll through supplemental nutrition aid and other programs. If you follow the money, the benefactor for these programs is not the working poor but the companies’ shareholders. For some of these companies, there is a third and more insidious incentive.

An employee on SNAP working at Dollar General, Walmart, Target, or other employers that accept EBT will likely use their benefits where they work. Those benefit dollars become gross sales for the employer.

To summarize, WOTC provides a tax credit to write off up to 40% of an employee’s payroll. SNAP benefits create a pool of employees to hire from, creating continued eligibility for WOTC. A federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour keeps employed Americans eligible for supplemental nutrition aid, providing $89.6 billion in additional gross sales to the grocery industry. 

What about the minimum wage creating inflation and eliminating jobs

It is undeniable that an increase in the federal minimum wage will cause an increase in the cost of services and goods. However, many examples exist of successful, profitable companies that provide quality products at market prices and pay competitive wages.

Costco announced on February 25 it will be raising its minimum pay to $16 per hour. Winco is the lowest-priced national grocery chain, and the average wage is $12 per hour. Target and Walmart have both made commitments to raise their minimum pay. 

The challenge for a small business isn’t the increase in wages. When the job market tightens again, smaller employers will be competing for workers wanting higher salaries. If they don’t match the market, they will face higher turnover, employee theft, and low morale, creating indirect costs. 

What about the impact of cost for a commodity like a Big Mac? According to Expatistan.com, a McDonald’s combo meal in Seattle, where McDonald’s’ minimum wage is $16 per hour, is around $9.00. In Jackson, Mississippi, where the minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, a McDonald’s combo meal is about $7.00. There is no economic evidence to support the theory that an increase to the minimum wage results in a dollar-for-dollar increase in consumers’ goods and services.

For businesses, there are key costs that would decline with a minimum wage increase. Employee theft, both of money and product, decreases when better wages are paid. For example, Costco has almost no employee shrinkage.

Companies that have increased wages, such as Walmart, have seen a sharp decline in employee turnover. People who are paid and treated better at their jobs stay at those jobs. Even in roles where training is minimal, an employee won’t reach full productivity for three to six months. In an environment where employees are continually churning, recruiting, hiring, onboarding, training, and lower productivity all cost the business more.

Some jobs will be eliminated with an increase in the minimum wage. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the United States would lose between 1.4 and 4.0 million jobs by 2029. However, the same report estimates the number of people living in poverty would decline by 1.3 million, even with the job losses. When we look at the last 30 years, most jobs eliminated disappeared due to technology, robotics, and mechanization, not due to wage costs. This has created additional challenges. A person from Generation X entering the job market could start at a company as a clerk or in data entry and work their way up through the ranks. These entry-level jobs white-collar jobs don’t exist anymore, forcing younger generations into service roles, apprenticeships, and other low-paying roles after completing their education.

What does history teach us

There is one example in US economics where the federal minimum grew 87.5% just 90 days after Congress approved the change. Harry Truman pushed for a boost as the United States was newly emerging from a deep post-World War II recession. Just as today, business leaders and economists predicted massive job losses and potential economic depression. In December 1949, when the increase kicked in, national unemployment was at 6.6%. Three years later, the unemployment rate was 2.7%.

Some argue that the post-1949 economic boom was created because Europe and large parts of Asia were devastated by World War II. The UN World Economic Report from 1951-52 doesn’t support that theory. On the contrary, the report shows robust global growth, with post-war France and Germany growing far faster than the United States. By 1961, total European GDP was far ahead of the US, even as the United States enjoyed the highest standard of living on the planet.

If history is a predictor for the future, American prosperity will benefit from an increase in the federal minimum wage. It will help move more people out of WOTC, decrease corporate welfare, and help more Americans be self-sufficient.