Tag Archives: genocide

Azerbaijan Starts Military Operation in the Disputed Karabakh Against Ethnic Armenians

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced the start of a military operation in Karabakh following a series of alleged attacks by Armenia forces, with the aim of disarming the breakaway Republic of Artsakh.

Fighting has continued throughout the day, with 7,000 civilians being evacuated from the regions of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh. At least 25 people have been killed in the fighting, with videos showing civilian areas being hit by artillery rounds and mortars.

The Azerbaijani Armed Forces released a series of videos showing Armenian air defenses, radar, and communication sites being destroyed by drones. Power in the city of Stepanakert was knocked out, with residents in panic as the sound of continuous artillery fire rubbled.

Azerbaijan officials claim that landmines placed on roads killed civilians and soldiers on September 19, sparking the “anti-terror operation.” Armenia vehemently denies the claim.

At the start of the hostilities, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense released a statement saying, “In the last few months, the Armenian armed forces units in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan systematically fired at the positions of the Azerbaijani Army from various calibers of weapons, continued mining of our territories, engineering improvements of the combat positions, as well as increasing the number of trenches and shelters, caused an increase in tension.”

The Ministry claimed that a land mine killed employees of the State Agency of Zaerbaijan Highways, and in a separate incident, military personnel were killed and injured “as a result of a mine planted by the intelligence-sabotage groups,” adding that Russia and Türkiye were notified about the military action.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia released a statement saying that “Azerbaijan unleashed another large-scale aggression against the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, aimed at completing its policy of ethnic cleansing” that is “guided by a sense of impunity.”

Armenian officials condemned the ongoing blockade of the Lachin Corridor, which has isolated up to 120,000 ethnic Armenians, bringing thousands to the brink of starvation. The Ministry accused Azerbaijan of conducting false flag attacks to justify large-scale military operations, adding, “the news about mining and sabotage operations are false and fabricated.”

In the same statement, Armenia appealed to its international partners, the UN Security Council, and the Russian peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh to put “an end to Azerbaijan’s aggression.”

A History of Religious Violence and Genocide

Historically, the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh region has been a homeland for ethnic Armenians. In 1805, Russian troops occupied Artsakh, annexing the territory from Iran in 1812. During the First Balkan War of 1912, Christian Armenians were accused of atrocities against Muslims, laying the foundation for future violence. A 1913 coup in the Ottoman Empire installed a one-party, fiercely anti-Christian government, which started a policy of forced relocations. Constantinople (now Istanbul) began “Muslimifcation” of the regions bordering Imperial Russia to disrupt what they believed was a growing separatist movement.

On October 29, 1914, the Ottoman Empire aligned with the Central Powers and entered World War I by attacking Russia’s Black Sea ports. Ottoman armies invaded Russia through modern-day Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the offensive was a military disaster. Retreating Ottaman-Turks massacred Christian Armenians and burned towns to the ground. This started a two-year genocide that killed up to 1.5 million ethnic Armenians through executions, starvation, and forced labor.

A brief period of independence from 1918 to 1920 ended with the invasion of the Soviet Red Army, and in 1922, Armenia and Azerbaijan became part of the Soviet Union.

When Josef Stalin became the leader of the Soviet Union in 1924, he implemented policies that harshly repressed religion. A heavy hand with a crushing grip closed the fractures between Christians and Muslims, but the wounds remained unhealed.

For its historical part, Türkiye has never recognized the Armenian Genocide.

How Azerbaijan and Armenia Got to Today

As the Soviet Union crumbled, the first clashes over control of the region erupted in 1988. In 1991, the Republic of Artsakh, located in a mountainous region of the South Caucus, declared its independence from the Soviet Union. A regional ceasefire was negotiated in 1994, with the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh continuing to operate as an independent region within the borders of Azerbaijan, heavily supported by Armenia.

Today, the Nagorno-Karabakh uses the Armenian dram as its currency, holds elections for an independent government, and is supported militarily by Armenian “volunteers.” Despite these connections, the Armenian government has never formally declared Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenia territory.

In a series of skirmishes, clashes, and a four-day war in 2016, various peace agreements and annexations left Nagorno-Karabakh isolated from the internationally recognized border of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Access to the region is dependent on a single road – the Lachin Corridor.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War started on September 27, 2020, leaving 7,000 dead before a Russian Federation brokered ceasefire was reached on November 10. Part of the agreement placed Russian peacekeepers in Azerbaijan to act as observers, prevent further hostilities, and keep the Lachin Corridor open.

The geopolitics of the region is complex, with Azerbaijan backed by Turkey. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia’s version of NATO, which includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The Beginning of the end of the CSTO Alliance

On September 12, 2022, Azerbaijan launched an unprovoked attack on Armenia, and on September 13, it shelled a base housing Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) peacekeeper troops, damaging barracks and vehicles. On September 14, Armenia tried to execute Article IV of the CSTO Alliance, requesting direct military intervention. The Kremlin rejected the petition and offered to send additional observers. From September 12 to 29, the clashes left up to 300 people dead, including civilians.

On the same day that Armenia requested assistance from the Alliance, CSTO members Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan entered into a four-day border clash that left over 150 dead, including civilians, with both combatants accusing each other of war crimes.

With two members fighting, up to 90% of Russian ground forces fighting in Ukraine or supporting the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, and Belarus entangled with Russia, Kazakhstan was the only CSTO member not already at war, supporting a war, or ready to fight a war with another CSTO member.

It was under this backdrop that Armenia hosted the CSTO Alliance Summit in Yerevan on November 23-24. At the end of the summit, Armenia refused to sign a draft declaration due to the absence of a statement addressing Azerbaijan’s aggression.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said, “Under these conditions, the lack of a clear political assessment of the situation and the failure to make the above decision may not only mean the CSTO’s refusal from allied obligations but may also be interpreted by Azerbaijan as a green light from the CSTO for further aggression against Armenia.”

With the CSTO leaders sitting at a round table and the signing ceremony broadcasted on live TV, Pashinian declared the summit over and walked out of the room. Russian President Vladimir Putin was so stunned the pen fell out of his hand.

Russia Wanted More from the 2020 Ceasefire

Moscow started flexing its political will in the region, fomenting the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to declare independence and the desire to become part of the Russian Federation.

Following the same playbook used in Georgia and Ukraine, Russia started offering passports to Armenians, and on February 22, 2022, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Konstantin Zatulin, said the same process used to create the illegitimate so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic in Ukraine, could work in Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh. He suggested that the pro-Russian elements of the Karabakh could form a People’s Republic aligned with Moscow, which would facilitate future annexation.

On April 13, Russian propagandist and ethnic Armenian Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT, shared a post on Telegram supporting the formation of a so-called Karabakh People’s Republic.

Russia’s attempt to occupy Ukraine in February 2022 collapsed in a humiliating defeat, suffering the loss of tens of thousands of troops and hundreds of pieces of some of its best military hardware in just five weeks. To continue its war of aggression and reconstitute military units, Russia started drawing down its peacekeepers and military hardware from regions around the world, including Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin Corridor. In December 2022, Azerbaijan blockaded the mountain roadway.

What’s the World is Saying

French President Emmanuel Macron called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, and the European Council condemned the hostilities. In a separate statement, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock accused Azerbaijan of breaking the 2020 peace agreement. United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there is “deep concern for the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and underscored that the United States is calling on Azerbaijan to immediately cease hostilities and return to dialogue immediately.”

The Foreign Ministry of Russia called for an end of hostilities. “In connection with the sharp escalation of the armed confrontation in Nagorno Karabakh, we urge the conflicting parties to immediately stop the bloodshed, stop hostilities, and eliminate civilian casualties.”

The statement from Moscow falsely alleges that Yerevan has made a territorial claim to Nagoro-Karabakh. On May 25, in a televised address that included Azeri President Ilham Aliyev and Pashinian, Putin said, “In my opinion, on the whole, despite difficulties and problems, and there are enough of them, the situation is nonetheless moving towards a settlement,” adding that, “officials from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia would continue to meet to ensure that “all unresolved issues will be cleared away.”

During those talks, Pashinian offered a shocking list of concessions, including the ratification of the Armenia-Azerbajian border and recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory. Pashinian singular condition was security guarantees to the 120,000 ethnic Armenians in the region. As recently as August, Putin expressed hope a resolution would be reached and called for patience.

The Foreign Ministry of Türkiye said that Azerbaijan was left with no options, declaring, “As a result of its rightful and legitimate concerns about the situation on the ground that it voiced repeatedly not being alleviated in nearly three since the end of the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan was forced to take measures it deems necessary on its sovereign territory.”

Another Genocide

The nine-month blockade has left Nagorno-Karabakh without food, fuel, and medical supplies. Residents line up for bread, with people standing in line for hours to receive one loaf per day. On August 15, 2023, Artsakh’s Human Rights Defender, Gegham Stepanyan, reported the first person had died from malnutrition due to the blockade. The next day, the United Nations demanded that the Lachin Corridor be opened immediately to allow relief aid to pass, which Azerbaijan ignored. On September 11, the BBC independently verified that eight residents had died from hunger.

Because Armenia has never made an official claim that Nagorno-Karabakh is its national territory, for right or wrong, international law will likely view the ongoing fighting as an Azerbaijan internal issue.

Ominously, the Azerbaijan state news agency, quoting a presidential spokesperson, said, “Nevertheless, for the antiterror measures to stop, the illegal Armenian military formations must raise the white flag, all the weapons must be handed over, and the illegal regime must be dissolved. Otherwise, the antiterror measures will be continued until the end.”

Azerbaijan forces did reopen the Lachin Corridor, but embattled civilians report the road is being shelled by artillery, making it impassable.

In a Facebook Live address, Prime Minister Pashinyan asserted that Armenia is not currently involved in the situation in Artsakh, sparking mass protests.

Armenia’s Fragile Future

Thousands have gathered in Yerevan calling for the resignation of Pashinyan, despite his calls to remain calm and to resist “provocations aimed at destabilizing the nation.”

Ignoring his request, tensions are rapidly rising, and Pashinian condemned protesters demanding a coup. Security forces have deployed flashbang grenades and potentially teargas.

Protesters also surrounded the Russian Embassy, demanding intervention in Azerbaijan as part of the 2020 peace accord, chanting, “shame,” “killers,” and curses at Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The Russian Foreign Ministry urged the Armenian government to end the protest.

On social media, a flood of Russian disinformation has started, referring to Armenia as “temporarily occupied” and calling Pashinyan a CIA-installed puppet. There are hints that Russia is attempting to take advantage of the situation, with the Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council and former President, Dmitry Medvedev, writing, “One day, one of my colleagues from a fraternal country told me: ‘Well, I’m a stranger to you, you won’t accept me.’ I answered what I had to: ‘We will judge not by biography, but by actions.’ Then he lost the war, but strangely stayed in place. Then he decided to blame Russia for his mediocre defeat. Then he gave up part of the territory of his country. Then he decided to flirt with NATO, and his wife defiantly went to our enemies with cookies. Guess what fate awaits him.”

After Armenia requested Russia to honor the 2020 peace agreement, propagandist Simonyan wrote on Telegram, “Pashinyan demands (!) that Russian peacekeepers protect [Artsakh]. And what about NATO? Not? Doesn’t protect?”

We had assessed the CSTO Alliance had reached the beginning of the end last year, with Russia’s September 2022 refusal to provide military aid to Armenia, Pashinian’s dramatic end to the CSTO Summit, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan almost reaching all-out war.

In May 2023, Pashinyan declared Armenia would remain in CSTO, and Armenia has been accused of supporting Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine by being one of the main conduits for the transit of sanctioned goods. But Yerevan is keeping an eye on the West for its future.

In 2022, United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) became the highest-level U.S. official to ever visit Yerevan on official business. On March 24, Türkiye and Armenia opened two border crossings that had been closed since 1993, and on September 11, Armenia and the U.S. launched a ten-day joint military exercise involving 85 U.S. troops. The Armenian Defense Ministry said the drills are meant to increase the interoperability of units participating in international peacekeeping missions and exchanging tactical skills.

Armenia has had a dedicated peacekeeping brigade since 2001. The 12th Peacekeeping has deployed to Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Kazakhstan. In 2019, Armenia responded to a Russian request to deploy explosive ordnance disposal engineers, medics, and security officers to Aleppo, Syria.

Putin’s Dilemma has no Good Answer, and Thousands Could Die

Militarily, the CSTO Alliance is the Russian Federation’s might covering several other nations. Prior to 2022, this was a convenient relationship. The Kremlin could exert its power, and the CSTO members had a nuclear-armed force that the world perceived was still a global superpower. The price of entry was loyalty to President Putin.

Russian losses in Ukraine could be as many as 260,000 troops since February 24, 2022, and there is significant evidence that up to 45% of all Russian military land war hardware is damaged, destroyed, or needs extensive reconditioning due to neglect. The state of the Russian Federation Armed Forces was worse in September 2023 than it was in 2022 when it declined Armenia’s Article IV request.

The bitter truth for Moscow is it can’t intervene in Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh even if it wanted to, and the peacekeeping force it deployed in November 2020 has been impotent. Unable to project military power, the Kremlin is settling on a disinformation campaign that the NATO Alliance supports Armenia, and the country is being betrayed. Since President Putin rose to power, nations embedded in Russia’s sphere of influence that have shown interest in broadening their alliances have been met with destabilization efforts and military intervention.

Complicating the situation for Putin, Russia’s dismantling of Private Military Company Wagner Group is backfiring in Africa. The West African branch of al Qaeda, called Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), has recently launched a series of brutal attacks on the remaining Wagner mercenaries, the troops of the interim government of Mali, and non-Muslim civilians. PMC Wagner mercenaries have publicly accused the Russian Ministry of Defense of sabotaging military aircraft and sharing the mercenary group’s tactical plans.

Russia appears to be preempting an Armenian Article IV declaration while ignoring its existing obligations to maintain a viable peacekeeping force in Azerbaijan. Putin is in an incredibly difficult position and could find himself trying to hold back an ongoing Ukrainian offensive while sinking into a Sahel and Caucus quagmire of his own making.

Regardless of the geopolitical swamp that has brewed for over 120 years and extends across three continents, thousands of ethnic Armenians are trapped in Artsakh and face starvation, repression, and death.

Anatomy of a botched false flag attack at Detention Camp 52

Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this story referenced the converted warehouse where POWs from the Azov Battalion were being kept in the northeast corner – that should have been northwest. Thank you for your understanding.

[UKRAINE] – (MTN) – On July 28, the self-declared leaders of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic accused Ukraine of attacking the Olenivka Penal Colony, located 16 kilometers from the line of conflict. Over the span of 12 hours, Russian leaders, Russian state media, and unaffiliated pro-Russian journalists shared horrifying pictures, painting the Ukrainian armed forces as the executions of their people. The evidence they showed the world and their own casualty reports painted a different picture. One that potentially and accidentally documented in vivid detail the worst war crime against POWs in Europe since the Kosovo War in 1998.

The history of the Detention Camp 52

The dark history of Olenivka started in 2014 when the camp, situated in wheat fields and rolling hills just west of the village of Molodizhne, became a filtration camp for Crimean Tartars after the Russian occupation of the Crimea Peninsula. A 2015 United States Department of State annual report on Human Rights in Ukraine documented extrajudicial imprisonment and justice, torture, and executions. Conditions in the colony were squalid where disease ran rampant, and potable water was scarce.

After the Russia-Ukraine War started in February, Detention Camp 52, as it is officially known, took on a new role as a filtration camp for Ukrainian citizens in captured territory. During the siege of Mariupol, people who tried to leave the city went through a filtration process in the towns of Manush and Bezimenne. Many of those who were taken away for additional filtration ended up in Olenivka.

Women who went through filtration and were released reported being held in concentration camp conditions. They were held in areas so cramped they had to sleep sitting or, worse, in shifts. There was little heat, no blankets, and no beds. Disease was rampant, food was scarce, and drinking water was withheld, sometimes for more than a day. Hygiene products were barely provided, and female hygiene products were not to be found.

The world got its first look inside Olenivka in April when Russian state media and Pro-Russian social media accounts circulated pictures of alleged Ukrainian POWs from Mariupol. Our team analyzed and geolocated the videos. The video wasn’t recorded in Mariupol – it was recorded in Olenivka.

Photo credit – Russian State Media – a still image from a video released on April 14 shows alleged Ukrainian POWs from Mariupol. Russian state media claimed the video was recorded in Mariupol but in the Olenivka Penal Colony.

Editor’s Note: We have elected not to blur the faces of these prisoners in the hope that the continued sharing of their faces and identities can help keep them alive.

An analysis of the video showed only a few men in military uniforms moved to the front while the rest wore civilian clothing. Some of the men didn’t wear the uniforms of Ukraine but of Russian separatist militias. Most of the men did not resemble the numerous pictures from Russian state media and dark corners of Telegram showing dead Ukrainian soldiers who were mostly younger and more fit than their Russian conscript counterparts.

Photo Credit – Google Maps – satellite image of Olenivka Penal Colony – 47°49’38.9″N 37°42’41.4″E

The penal colony is easily found on a map. The prison is double-walled and covers over 114,000 square meters. The perimeter is 1.5 kilometers with buildings for administration, guards, and worse surrounding the facility. In the northwest region, the warehouse that was partially converted into housing for prisoners of the Azov Battalion was still unused and had holes in its roof at the time of the Google satellite image.

From filtration camp to POW colony

On May 15, almost three months after the siege of Mariupol began and three weeks after Russia had declared victory within the port city, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that a deal had been reached that would permit the safe surrender of the Ukrainian forces remaining inside the Azovstal Metallurgical Factory.

Confusion spread through the news channels as Pro-Russian social media accounts spread disinformation, and officials remained silent. Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine, Anna Malyar, released a brief statement in the morning saying, “Thanks to the defenders of Mariupol, Ukraine gained critically important time. They fulfilled all their tasks. But it is impossible to unblock Azovstal by military means.”

Initially, the deal negotiated through United Nations and Red Cross intermediaries appeared to be a win for Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine found a way out for up to 2,200 marines, territorial guards, foreign volunteers, and local police. Russia was able to end its siege without having to storm the fortress that was Azovstal. It would take 7,000 to 10,000 troops to defeat the 2,200 remaining defenders, resulting in heavy losses. Russia’s offensive in Luhansk was bogged down, and they needed a way out.

On May 16, the first 264 Ukrainian troops left Azovstal and into Russian captivity. Among them were 53 seriously wounded soldiers that would face death without care from a hospital. Reporters from Russian state media and western media documented the evacuation and followed the convoy of hospital buses to Bezimenne. The other 211 soldiers faced an uncertain future as a convoy of five buses headed northeast to Olenivka.

On May 16, we wrote in our Situation Report, “The soldiers were likely taken to the infamous detention camp 52, between Olenivka and Molodizhne.” Video released by Russian state media on May 17, showed the convoy of busses arriving in the morning hours at the filtration center turned POW camp.

The deal that was brokered between Russia and Ukraine through the United Nations and Red Cross would facilitate a prisoner of war transfer. The Red Cross would be able to document the information on each prisoner, notify their family members, be a conduit of communication, and would monitor their care and treatment.

As the last of as many as 2,200 remaining soldiers, foreign volunteers, and police left the bunkers of Azovstal, the deal was already falling apart.

A history of war crimes

There were already rumors and whispers about the conditions within Detention Camp 52 as Mariupol POWs streamed in. The Red Cross never received its promised access, and multiple requests to inspect Olenivka and the prisoners were denied. Officials weren’t even permitted to document all of the prisoners that were removed from Azovstal, with a large discrepancy between the numbers claimed by the Russian Ministry of Defense and human rights observers.

Before the group from Mariupol arrived, the stories were consistent for the few who could leave the walls. Men taken to Olenivka fell into three groups.

For those found to be part of the military, the government, or had a prior history with the military or as a government employee, beatings, torture, and disappearances awaited. A release could be found through forced conscription for able-bodied men from 18 to 65 with no prior military or government connections and no pro-Ukrainian tattoos or ideation on digital devices. Those that refused faced deprivation, beatings, and torture until they disappeared or joined the Donetsk People’s Republic militia as forced conscripts. For the rest, slave labor in dangerous conditions awaited while living in squalid conditions without enough food and limited access to clean drinking water. The Red Cross and United Nations brokered a deal that committed POWs to concentration camp conditions.

On June 29, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that a prisoner swap had been arranged, and 144 POWs held at Olenivka were being exchanged for 144 Russian POWs. Among those released were 95 defenders from Azovstal and 43 members of the Azov Battalion. Pro-Russian social media erupted with outrage. Outside of the bots, troll farms, and the consumers of their social media content, hope emerged for more swaps on both sides. Despite the issues, it seemed possible that civility would prevail and that the stories were exaggerations. The hope was short-lived.

Photo credit – Ukrainian Ministry of Defense – former Ukrainian POWs await transport back to Ukraine during a June 29, 2022 prisoner exchange

Many of those released were in poor health and were still healing from wounds now six weeks old. Some had to be taken away in ambulances. The Ukrainian government said that those released were getting the medical and psychological care they needed and asked for respect and privacy. Soon after their release, new whispers emerged within the medical community.

Beginning on July 8, our e-mail and social media inboxes became flooded with requests to validate reports that many of the soldiers released on June 29 had been castrated. On July 10, we made a public response that in order to confirm the reports, we would require first-person accounts from Ukraine with the cooperation of doctors and former POWs willing to go on the record. We would need access to medical records and permission from the Ukrainian government. We would need assistance and support from individuals trained to interview victims of torture and former prisoners in an ethical and respectful way.

We started working through our network to make that happen and planning a trip in late September or early October. On July 27, we received our forms from the Ukrainian government to get our press credentials. We wouldn’t need them. Hours later, the world had all the evidence it needed.

Photo credit – left – Russian state media – right – PMC Wagner Group – on the left is the person accused of torturing and executing a Ukrainian POW – on the right is a still image of the torture where the POW was beaten, castrated, mutilated, and executed

On July 28, a disturbing video emerged of a bound Ukrainian POW being castrated with a box cutter and then stomped on by a soldier in the Chechen Ahmat Unit, possibly in Severodoentsk, sometime in June. The POW was bound and restrained by multiple mercenaries and made blood-curdling screams as he was hacked for more than 45 seconds in the horrific video. After severing the genitals, the mercenary holds it up to the camera and tosses it on the ground by the man’s head. The video started circulating on Pro-Russian Telegram channels before spilling over to Twitter, YouTube, and others. The video has been deemed authentic, and the perpetrator in the video has been identified. A few hours later, a second part of the video emerged. The Ukrainian POW, who was likely already fatally wounded from his torture, was shot in the head at point-blank range.

The whispers of castration weren’t just rumors. They were unthinkably true.

A false flag to clean up a big mess

During the week of July 25, the leaders of Detention Camp 52 moved up to 200 members of the Azovstal Batallion to their own quarters. The area was walled off from the larger warehouse. It was a single room with a high ceiling and a corrugated metal roof. The building was brick and cinderblock construction.

PMC Wagner Group had at least one major problem, and possibly two. A squad recorded themselves torturing and executing a Ukrainian POW. The participants in the war crime wore surgical gloves, and the leader of the atrocity had a box cutter. In less than two minutes, they coordinated and moved in a way that indicated this was not the first time this had been done.

Worse, he was almost instantly identified because of his distinct clothing and the perpetrator appearing in earlier Russian state news reports, revealing distinguishing characteristics. Within 24 hours, the video had been validated by multiple sources, including our own team. The United Nations, European Union, and government officials condemned the action labeling it a war crime and a terrorist act.

Within the walls of Olenivka were there other prisoners who had been castrated, but instead of their testicles and penis removed to the prostate gland, only had their testicles cut off? The world will likely never know.

Hours after an undetermined explosion in the new barracks and Russian accusations of it being a HIMARS strike, the Ukrainian Directorate of Intelligence accused PMC Wagner Group of destroying the building. Local officials in Donetsk reported that 47 POWs had been killed and up to 130 wounded on July 28. Ukrainian intelligence claimed that the order to destroy the building came directly from Yevheny Prigozhin, the head of PMC Wagner Group.

There were reports that inspectors from the Russian Ministry of Defense were coming on September 1 to check on the conditions on Olenivka and do an audit of funds given to Wagner Group to expand the strained facilities.

In a statement on Telegram, Ukrainian Intelligence wrote, “The explosions in Olenivka are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism by the occupying forces side. According to the available information, they were carried out by mercenaries from the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) under the personal command of the nominal owner of the specified PMC, Yevheny Prigozhin.”

As the Kremlin and leaders of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic tried to turn the horror into a public relations coup, likely in an attempt to cripple western sanctions and arms support, the story quickly disintegrated. Not a single person with the Russian military, separatist militias, terrorists from the Imperial Legion, PMC Wagner Group, Chechen territorial guard, local territorial guard, or area police were injured or killed in the attack. No camp administrators or support staff were killed or wounded. The building, which held up to 200 POWs, was void of any guards or other authorities.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with Ukrainian heads of staff and the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner of Human Rights regarding the terrorist attack in Olenivka, which was deliberately staged by Russian occupation forces. The Red Cross submitted a formal request to inspect the site and conduct an investigation.

The European Union condemned the incident, with EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell stating Russia’s actions constitute “severe breaches of the Geneva conventions and their Additional protocol and amount to war crimes.”

The Red Cross, which was supposed to have unfettered access as part of the May agreement, submitted a formal request to inspect the site and conduct an investigation. In a later statement, the Red Cross said it would conduct a full investigation if “all parties” would agree.

The evidence doesn’t support there was a rocket attack

Ukrainian officials have known about Olenivka since 2014. The camp, 16 kilometers from the line of conflict, has never been shelled since Russia annexed Crimea and separatists started fighting in February 2014. The settlements around the camp have also never come under artillery or rocket fire, nor have ever been bombed or attacked by aircraft. Our research team was aware of Detention Camp 52 by early March and was working on documenting and validating ongoing abuse claims.

We spoke with a former Gebirgspionier with the German Bundeswehr with explosives experience for their evaluation.

“It’s impossible that a HIMARS fired M30 or M31 warhead was used in the strike on the POW camp. No usual shrapnel pattern on the walls; they are almost virgin. Even the bodies don’t show shrapnel wounds but typical blast injuries. The roof is almost intact, which is near impossible for the corrugated metal roof material. The roof would have been blown almost entirely.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage and charred bodies still inside the Olenivka Penal Colony

The bunk beds would have been expected to fall over and be torn apart, at least in the center of the blast radius. However, the burn marks on the walls and the spalling in their center remind me of directional charges (like one or two MON-90 hanging from or laying on the metal roof) attached to a gasoline canister. In my assessment, this caused the spalling on the wall: an impact of that metal canister where [an accelerant] splashed and formed those significant brand markings, as you would expect when searching a burned house for the source of a fire.”

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage and charred bodies still inside the Olenivka Penal Colony

Photos from the exterior also do not support the claim of a rocket attack. The building has no shrapnel damage. The corrugated metal roof has been blown outward, not smashed down and blasted away. The blast damage and fire damage are all from the interior. Metal bars and window frames are not blown out but show damage consistent with an interior building fire.

The section of the building directly adjacent to where the Azovstal prisoners were held is also undamaged, with no blast damage through the concrete block wall.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage to the outside of the Olenivka Penal Colony, which is inconsistent with a rocket, missile, or artillery attack

But the most damning evidence came from Russian state media and PMC Wagner Group. On July 27, a video circulated of a school in Izyum that had been converted into a military base after it had been attacked with rockets fired by HIMARS. That building was more soundly constructed than the Olenivka warehouse and had multiple interior rooms that would have contained the blast. The damage to the building doesn’t match the impact on the penal colony. The roof has been smashed from the top and blown out by the detonation. The building has been blown apart, with debris strewn in multiple directions. Whole window frames were blown out and lay meters away.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 27 still image from a video showing a school converted to a military base by PMC Wagner Group in Izyum after it was destroyed in a HIMARS strike

In another clumsy attempt to claim Ukraine committed a war crime by destroying a school, Wagner Group’s drone video showed trenches, tank scrapes, and firing positions on the school grounds and, from at least one point, still partially intact after the strike. The video also provided clear evidence of what a HIMARS strike looks like and the damage it causes.

Epilogue

Ultimately we cannot arbitrate if this was an interior or exterior explosion. That will have to be left to the experts and investigators. It is unlikely that third-party investigators will be allowed onto the scene until it was been sanitized and prepared more, if ever.

Was the building destroyed to cover up torture and mutilation? Was the explosion rigged to mass execute Azov Battalion members while painting Ukraine as the perpetrators to fracture western support? Was PMC Wagner Group covering up more war crimes and potential corruption?

One day, we may know. In war, the victor writes the history.