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Russian President Igor Strelkov Girkin?

Hours after appearing in a Moscow courtroom, former FSB Colonel and convicted war criminal Igor Strelkov Girkin announced his support of an effort to nominate him as a candidate in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections in Russia. Girkin, also known by his alias of Strelkov, given to him by his former employer, the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB), was arrested on June 21 and charged with extremism for a post he made on Telegram in May 2022.

If convicted of his current charges, he faces up to eight years in a penal colony in a justice system with a 99% conviction rate. On August 3, Girkin’s case was declared a “state secret,” enabling Moscow to hold his trial in secret.

A brutal critic of how the Kremlin has been running its so-called “special military operation” after Russia’s 2023 winter offensive failed, Girkin formed the Angry Patriots Club, comprised of extremists, even by Russian standards. The Angry Patriots want to declare martial law, fully mobilize the Russian population, and shift to a wartime economy to ensure the destruction of Ukraine and its people—some advocate using any means to destroy Ukraine, including nuclear weapons.

Apparently posting from his cell at the infamous Lefortovo Prison, Girkin released his reasons for accepting the nomination effort, attacking the policies of incumbent Russian President Vladimir Putin using sarcasm to dance around Russia’s so-called “don’t say war” laws.

“The president refuses to lead military operations [and] considers himself incompetent in military affairs,” Girkini wrote, adding, “I consider myself more competent in military affairs than the incumbent president and definitely more than the incumbent defense minister, so I could fulfill the duty of the supreme commander-in-chief as required by the Constitution of the Russian Federation.”

He went on to call Putin “extremely gullible” and “too kind,” using the Russian leader’s words against him, stating that Putin has been led by the nose by Western leaders for decades. While throwing barbs at his potential political opponent in the upcoming 2024 elections in Russia, Girkin also went after the Russian oligarch class, largely created during the criminal era in the post-Soviet 1990s.

“Vladimir Vladimirovich is a highly moral person, always true to his word and firmly fulfilling the promises given to those who brought him to power in the late nineties. I have promised nothing to anyone and can, therefore, ignore all the personal guarantees of all the presidents of the Russian Federation from 1991 to the present if I consider that this is useful for the people and the state.”

On August 29, a bearded and defiant-looking Girkin was brought to a Moscow court to determine if the charges against him were valid. It was determined there was enough probable cause to continue to hold him until the next hearing scheduled for September 18.

Although he is being kept at FSB-run Lefortovo, Girkin is getting preferential treatment. He is held in a cell designed for two people with a partial kitchenette and a television. Earlier in August, his wife, Miroslava Reginskaya, claimed that his health was declining and that her husband was being denied medication for his heart condition and had not been seen by a doctor. Just before his August 29 hearing, she provided an update stating that he was given a physical, his health had improved, and some of his personal effects were returned to him.

One of Russia’s original “little green men” in Ukraine, Girkin was the first Minister of Defense for the illegitimate so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and has bragged about committing and ordering war crimes. He was convicted by a Dutch court on November 17, 2022, as one of three men responsible for the July 17, 2014, downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, which killed 298 people.

For some Russians, he is a hero, while others consider him incompetent after he led a disastrous Kremlin-backed advance on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the summer of 2014. After the 1st Army Corps of the DNR collapsed in August 2014, Moscow decided to remove Girkin, who was using his assumed name of Strelkov then. Another one of Russia’s little green Seymon Pegov, who now leads the Russian military blog WarGonzo, has criticized Girkin for years, claiming that he and his unit were abandoned in Slovyansk when Girkin fled hiding in the trunk of a car.

After returning to Russia, Girkin became a prolific blogger and a vocal critic of Russian policies while espousing nationalist and antisemitic talking points. He tried to slip into occupied Crimea in August 2022 but was detained by border guards and refused entry. In October, he became a volunteer mobik for a unit in the DNR but left a month later. He claimed he had been deceived and that his contract was only for one day, leaving him exposed legally as an unlawful combatant. When Girkin left Ukraine for the second time, there was a $100,000 bounty for his capture.

Over the winter, he got into a public spat with the now-deceased Private Military Company Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, criticizing his “attention-seeking,” using dead Russian soldiers as “props,” and publicly complaining about ammunition shortages. Prigozhin offered Girkin the opportunity to sign a contract with PMC Wagner, first as an entry-level mercenary and later as the equivalent of a field officer. Ultimately, he refused, claiming that Prigozhin and the Wagner Group had insulted him and questioned his loyalty to Russia.

Girkin isn’t the first high-profile prisoner in the Russian penal system to have apparent ready access to the Internet. Anti-corruption activist and lawyer Alexei Navalny has also been able to post criticism of Putin despite being incarcerated.

The Kremlin has not released a statement about the potential candidacy of Girkin or the legalities of his potential run for president.

Death Toll Climbs to 26 in Chasiv Yar – July 11, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,055 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

There were minimal ground combat operations through Ukraine today as the Russian operational pause continues.

Lysychansk – Severodonetsk – There are claims that Russian forces captured the settlement of Hryhorivka on the Luhansk-Donetsk border and had advanced to the edge of Serebrianka. The only source for this claim is the self-proclaimed Assistant Minister of the Interior for the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, in a Russian state media report on TASS.

“Our units took the settlement of Hryhorivka. There was a very large fortified area, but our units took it,” Kiselev said.

Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai reported that “battles continue in Bilohorivka,” later reporting that Russian forces “ran several times” from Bilohorivka but did not report the settlement was captured.

Haidai also reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatist militia started forced conscription in Severodoentsk, with recently “liberated” Pro-Russian residents already being sent to the front lines.

Northeast Donetsk – Fighting continued on the eastern edge of Verhhnokamyanske. On July 9, Pro-Russian accounts claimed their forces had occupied Spirne, approximately 10 kilometers from the Ukrainian stronghold of Siversk. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention Sprine in their July 10 report indicating the settlement is likely under Russian control.

Bakhmut – The death toll in Chasiv Yar climbed to 26 after three Russian Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck two five-story apartment buildings at dusk on July 9. A video showed the third missile arriving several minutes after the first volley, as rescuers were arriving and dazed residents were leaving the buildings. Launching a second strike shortly after the first is called a “double-tap” and is meant to maximize casualties.

Ukrainian President Voldoymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack in a national address.

“After such strikes, they will not be able to say they did not know something or did not understand something.”

“Punishment is inevitable for every Russian murderer. Absolutely everyone. Just as for the Nazis.”

“And they should not expect that their state will protect them. Russia will be the first to abandon them when political circumstances change.”

East, and southeast of Bakhmut, Russian troops did not attempt any advances. The settlements of Kurdyumivka and Vershyna were shelled. Fighting continued east of Vesela Dolyna.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Pro-Russian bloggers, unaffiliated journalists, and former military leaders vocally complained about the now constant shelling and High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacks across the Donbas.

The former commander of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Russian FSB Colonel Igor “Strelikov” Girkin wrote on Telegram, “In the past 5-7 days over ten large artillery and other munitions stockpiles were hit, several oil depots, around ten command points and roughly as many personnel locations in our near and far rears. In addition to several air defense and artillery positions. This resulted in large [emphasis, Girkin’s]losses in personnel and equipment.”

He ended with, “When will the Russian Federation Armed Forces start fighting with full force?”

Girkin’s assessment was echoed by other influencers and leaders across social media networks, adding tension to an already deteriorating relationship between the Kremlin and frontline war reporters.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance from Novoselivaka Druha and improve tactical positions north of Avdiivka. They were unsuccessful.

Otherwise, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – President Zelenskyy ordered the Ukrainian military to re-establish control over “coastal regions” in southern Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, told The Times of London, “We understand that, politically, it’s very necessary for our country. The president has given the order to the supreme military chief to draw up plans. After that, the general staff are doing their homework and say to achieve this goal, we need XYZ.”

Yurii Sobolevskyi, First Deputy Chairman of the Kherson Oblast Council, told civilians in the occupied regions to evacuate or prepare for coming hostilities. “Our people need to leave,” he warned.

“Those who can’t do it…should prepare for the fact that shelter [from artillery, bombs, etc.] will be needed again. It is necessary to prepare a supply of water and…food in order to survive the offensive of our troops. We understand that our guys will work as carefully and surgically as possible to save every life, but war is war.”

Russian occupying forces are not making it easy. A bus ticket to Zaporizhia is 6,000 hryvnia/roubles. If a person wants to drive their car, there are a lot of challenges. An evacuee and their family need to have original passports, all required documents, no tattoos that could be connected to any pro-Ukrainian ideals or prior military service, phones that are wiped clean, and nothing that causes suspicion at any checkpoint. Additionally, they need proof of ownership for the car or power of attorney to prove they are allowed to take it out of Kherson. Ukrainian forces struck Russian barracks in the critical transit and logistics hub of Nova Kahkovka. It is common to have to bribe checkpoint guards 5,000 to 10,000 hryvnia/roubles to pass.

Ukrainian forces struck Russian barracks in the critical transit and logistics hub of Nova Kahkovka. There were unconfirmed reports of Russian casualties.

Kharkiv – There was no change in the line of conflict northwest and north of Kharkiv, and neither belligerent engaged in fighting. A Russian Iskander-M missile hit a six-story apartment building in the Osnovianskyi District of Kharkiv, causing significant damage. Two other missiles hit the city, destroying a school and a warehouse.

Izyum – Russian forces fired artillery and used MLRS to attack Ukrainian positions across a broad area west and south of Izyum, but did not attempt to make any advances.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukrainian capabilities to strike targets accurately well beyond the line of conflict are creating unrest among the Pro-Russian community and lowering morale.
  2. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
  3. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to target civilians using precision weapons increasingly in short supply.
  4. It is unclear if Ukraine will take the initiative in the immediate future – statements from Ukrainian officials indicate that the effort to retake southern Ukraine is in the planning stages.

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