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There is no such thing as Flurona or Deltacron

January 9, 2022 David Obelcz

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) A review of the genetic information shared on GISAID by researchers in Cyprus, who claimed to have discovered a new COVID strain created by the antigenic shift between the Delta and Omicron variants, appears to be inaccurate.

Multiple virologists and scientists have reviewed the shared data and universally agree that the “variant” is not an antigenic shift, by a chimera likely caused by testing patients who were co-infected with Delta and Omicron. The story was broken by Bloomberg on Saturday and picked up by multiple news outlets including CNBC and Forbes.

Dr. Tom Peacock, a virologist with the Imperial College of London, explained in a Twitter thread that recombinations of tests samples are common and that this wasn’t caused by poor quality control in the lab or bad science.

If anyone wants to check our working out on this (and I encourage people to do so if you are able to!) heres the phylogenetic tree of the sequences not clustering at all: https://t.co/Dg3YDh5x6a
— Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu) January 9, 2022

Dr Leontios Kostrikis, the head of the University of Cyprus’ biotechnology and molecular virology lab, announced to reporters on Saturday his findings and shared them in the GISAID database. By Sunday both Bloomberg, who broke the story, and Dr Kostrikis were on the defensive insisting this was an antigenic shift.

In an e-mail, Dr Kostrikis wrote to Bloomberg that his findings “indicate an evolutionary pressure to an ancestral strain to acquire these mutations and not a result of a single recombination event.”

A study published on Oct. 14 called Genome Recombination between Delta and Alpha Variants of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), explored recombination versus antigenic shift, and the need for due diligence before declaring a new variant has been identified. The study examined seven reports of the Alpha and Delta strain recombinations and found that when the lineages were traced, the combination of the two into a new and unique virus, antigenic shift, did not occur.

The study concluded, “we must intensively monitor and carefully inspect such marked genetic variations to ensure their proper characterization.”

The hype around “deltacron,” mirrors a similar scare around “flurona.” Headlines announced the findings of people co-infected with Influenza and COVID, which people misinterpreted as a new virus. Although Influenza and COVID are both viruses, the similarity ends there. Creating a new virus through an antigenic shift between the two would be like trying to breed a cougar with an elephant.

A meta-analysis published on Jun. 25, 2021, found almost one percent of confirmed COVID cases were among people co-infected with Influenza from December 2019 to September 2020.

Doctors and immunologists have explained that co-infection between multiple variants is possible, as is co-infection with Influenza or RSV. It is also possible for a coinfected person to spawn a new COVID variant if they were coinfected with two different strains at the same time. It appears in Cyprus, this isn’t the case.

Dr. Todd Wolynn, CEO of Kids Plus Pediatrics in Pittsburgh and an expert on medical misinformation and disinformation, explained why the headlines move faster than the science. “Before social media there use to be a saying, if it bleeds, it leads,” he said.

“Now with social media, if it scares it’s shared.”

On Friday the New York Times reported there were more than 900,000 confirmed COVID cases reported in the United States, representing a single-day record that would not include weekend or holiday data. Despite continued reports of the Omicron variant being mild, the United States also reached an alarming milestone, setting a new hospitalization record – 138,051 with 17,000 new hospitalizations because or with COVID a day.

Officials believe new COVID cases will peak in King County during the next seven to ten days. The IHME forecasts new coronavirus cases will peak at 38,000 on Feb. 4 in Washington. On Saturday the Washington State Department of Health reported 10,000 residents have died of COVID since Feb. 29, 2020.

Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

COVID cases fueled by Omicron skyrocket globally, nationally, and in Washington

December 20, 2021 David Obelcz

Texas officials report the first Omicron related fatality in the United States

Editor’s Note: As a policy, Malcontent News does not quote or publish data from pre-print studies. The transmission rate of the Omicron SARS-CoV2 variant is so high it is spreading at a rate faster than the scientific review process. For this reason, we are using pre-print studies in our reporting and analysis for the Omicron variant. We will continue to backlink to all quoted sources to support transparency in reporting.

Updated: Story edited to report first Omicron death in the United States

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Washington state moved back to high transmission risk for COVID as new cases fueled by the Omicron variant grew 32 percent over the weekend. The highly contagious variant was discovered in South Africa, spreading to over 90 countries in six weeks.

The United States was reminded how serious Covid-19 is this evening, with Texas reporting the first Omicron-related death in the nation. Judge Lina Hidalgo of Harris County, Texas, tweeted that a man in his 50s had died of Omicron. He was unvaccinated and had health issues. It is reported he was treated with monoclonal antibodies, which have been rendered ineffective against the Omicron variant.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported 73% of new COVID cases across the United States are the Omicron variant, swamping Delta cases. The World Health Organization estimated cases are doubling every 1.5 to three days.

The CDC estimates that Omicron is 90% of new COVID cases in the New York City area, the Southeast, the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes states, and the Pacific Northwest. Omicron cases have been detected in 48 of 50 states, with Montana, Indiana, and Vermont confirming cases this afternoon.

On December 20, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, and Vermont reported their first confirmed Omicron cases and Texas reported an Omicron-related death – Oklahoma and South Dakota lag the rest of the country in genomic sequencing of test samples

In Miami, lines of cars waited for hours to get COVID tests. Governor Ron DeSantis had boasted Florida had conquered coronavirus on Oct. 27, using data from the New York Times. On Monday evening, Florida reported more than 7,000 new cases a day, an increase of almost 300% in two weeks – second only to Hawaii.

The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH) reported a sharp increase in COVID cases. The counties with the highest rates were distributed across Washington from the Olympic Pennisula to the Palouse. Only Wahikakum County reported low community spread on Monday.

Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated	Percentage of Vaccinated People with Booster Dose	Total Population in Group	Average 7-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above	39.15%	2,343,250	170.1
60.00% to 69.99%	35.36%	1,669,300	136.0
50.00% to 59.99%	32.23%	3,339,300	111.6
40.00% to 49.99%	29.41%	268,975	77.6
32.70% to 39.99%	35.38%	151,850	85.5

7 Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County, Booster percentage is based on totally fully vaccinated, not eligible, Average 7-day New Case Rate <25 normal, =>25 to 99.9 moderate, => 100, high transmission

Federal officials believe the actual case count is much higher due to asymptomatic carriers and home testing, which isn’t reported to county and state health departments.

According to the University of Washington Virology Lab, the genomic sequencing of SGTF COVID test samples was 70% positive for Omicron on Dec. 16. Data provided by Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division, showed Omicron cases had been lab-confirmed in Benton, Franklin, King, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston, Walla Walla, Whatcom, and Yakima Counties.

Researchers had looked at test samples as far back as Nov. 7 from Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.

Frustration was building on social media as Western Washington residents tried to find rapid COVID antigen tests, booster shots, and appointments for children 5 to 11 to get vaccinated. People waited for hours in long lines to get lab tested for Covid-19 and worried about travel plans as the time to get test results back grew past 72 hours.

Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan announced that the Rainier Beach and West Seattle vaccination clinics will remain open for boosters and vaccinations into January 2022. Tests sites across the city run in cooperation with the University of Washington are expanding hours to try and meet growing demand. There are fixed test sites at Aurora, SODO, Rainier Beach, and West Seattle, as well as seven Curative kiosks placed throughout the City. In partnership with the City of Seattle, UW Medicine has also opened a site at City Hall, which is available to the public. Appointments are encouraged at all locations, and sites will be closed on Christmas Day.

Area hospitals are at capacity even though COVID hospitalizations are low

The number of hospitalized COVID patients in Washington has slowly dropped through December. The WSDoH reported there were 640 hospitalized Covid-19 patients on Sunday, and 81 were on ventilators. The numbers are significantly higher than the end of the Fifth Wave in late May, and area hospitals are already filled with non-COVID patients.

Data from the U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) found regional hospitals have scant resources to manage another surge. Almost half of the regional hospital beds available are at Swedish on Broadway in Seattle and St. Joseph’s Medical Center in Tacoma. The report indicated there were 730 beds available, but that includes resources for pediatric patients and neonatal incubators. Available ICU beds include NICU incubators, PICU beds, and critical care resources for post-surgical, transplant, trauma, and burn patients.

Hospital	City	Acute Care Total	Acute Care Available	ICU Total	ICU Available
Overlake	Bellevue	264	17	34	4
Swedish – Cherry Hill	Seattle	170	2	42	16
Seattle Children’s	Seattle	308	29	96	12
U.W. Medical Center	Seattle	641	58	139	98
Swedish – Broadway	Seattle	568	90	79	55
Harborview	Seattle	400	9	97	10
Virginia Mason	Seattle	238	20	33	13
EvergreenHealth	Kirkland	251	8	37	2
Swedish – Issaquah	Issaquah	100	8	30	26
Valley Medical	Renton	292	36	50	27
St. Anne’s	Burien	161	44	31	23
Swedish – Edmonds	Edmonds	173	14	9	5
Harrison Memorial	Bremerton	281	36	49	6
MultiCare	Auburn	138	31	16	1
St. Francis	Federal Way	155	45	15	1
St. Anthony’s	Gig Harbor	108	0	16	3
Providence	Everett	611	47	77	8
Tacoma General	Tacoma	310	-9	46	2
Mary Bridge Children’s	Tacoma	83	34	11	4
St. Joseph’s	Tacoma	573	234	76	14

Data is through December 9, 2021, as reported to the U.S. Health and Human Services for all hospitals with more than 50 beds and ICU resources within 30 miles of downtown Bellevue – acute care beds include adult, pediatric, and neonatal, ICU beds include NICU, PICU, and specialized critical care units for post-surgical, trauma, and burns

In a worrying sign from New York, officials reported on Monday night that while many people are experiencing breakthrough cases and having mild symptoms, unvaccinated individuals were 11 times more likely to be hospitalized.

More data released on vaccine and monoclonal antibody effectiveness against Omicron

In an announcement early Monday, Moderna said preliminary data from lab testing found that a booster of the currently available vaccine increased antibody levels to an effective level. The drugmaker said its currently FDA-approved 50 microgram booster increased neutralizing antibody levels 37-fold against Omicron and 83-fold with a 100 microgram “full dose” booster.

An independent study released last week that evaluated the effectiveness of the Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines had similar results. Vaccine effectiveness appears to be significantly impacted by how long ago someone received their final dose or booster. Multiple studies have found the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is significantly less effective.

Results from a study that reviewed the effectiveness of the Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines after three months, more than six months, with the previous infection, and with a booster. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was evaluated using a Modern 50 microgram dose as a booster

A study from the U.K. found that relying on immunity from a previous COVID infection was only 19 percent effective against preventing symptomatic reinfection and 20 percent when relying on vaccination without a booster. The same study found that a booster dose increased protection by 50 to 85 percent. Overall the risk for reinfection was 5.4 times greater than Delta. The study done by the Imperial College of London used PCR test data from Nov. 29 to Dec. 11.

In New York, hospitalists at Mount Sinai Hospital were advised to stop administering monoclonal antibodies because they were ineffective against Omicron. The memo reported that most people seeking treatment had breakthrough infections with mild symptoms that didn’t warrant hospitalization.

Washington state is waiting for the first 552 doses of the monoclonal antibody sotrovimab. Granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May, it is the only remaining effective early treatment for Omicron in the United States.

Concern grows as the hopes of Omicron being “only a cold” fade away

South Africa officials reported 105 COVID-related deaths across the nation on Monday. The number of ICU patients has increased 144 percent since Nov. 25. Omicron appears to have peaked in Gauteng Province but continues to spread rapidly across the nation of almost 60 million.

United Kingdom officials reported another five Omicron COVID-related deaths, bringing the total to 12. Hospitalizations of children under 5 increased 39% week over week, and thousands of healthcare workers have been stricken with Covid-19 infections, causing staffing issues.

A study by the University of Texas Austin for the CDC was made public on Dec. 16. It looked at 18 different scenarios for the spread of Omicron. In ten of those scenarios, the healthcare system in the United States is overrun by patients.

President Joe Biden will address the nation on Tuesday to outline the administration’s new steps to aid states and communities while trying to curb the spread of COVID.

Yesterday, former President Donald Trump addressing a crowd of admirers in Dallas told the audience he had received his booster. A smattering of jeers and boos rippled across American Airlines Center.

“Don’t, don’t, don’t, don’t …” he said.

“There’s a very tiny group over there,” the former President added.

Breaking News, Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

Where London goes with Omicron Seattle will follow, with the rest of the US close behind

December 19, 2021 David Obelcz

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) A record 93,000 new COVID cases were reported in the United Kingdom by the National Health Service just hours after Trevor Bedford, Ph.D., an Associate Professor, Biostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Program Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research indicated that where London goes, Seattle will follow five days later.

France closed its borders to the UK on Friday evening and on Saturday, London Mayor Sadiq Khan declared a “major incident” as Covid-19 hospital admissions rose 30% in a week. The National Health Service reported seven people have died from the Omicron variant and believe that “hundreds of thousands” of cases are going unreported. Cases are expected to grow at a dizzying rate well into January.

On Friday, Bedford told reporters that 50 percent of new Covid-19 cases in King County, were likely Omicron and doubling every 2.4 days. The next day, Pavitra Roychoudhury, MSc, Ph.D., of the University of Washington Virology Division tweeted that Omicron was 50 percent of all cases in Washington.

In an interview published on Saturday in the New York Intelligencer, Bedford shared his prediction on what is to come. “I can expect caseloads that are huge. I can easily expect a 50 percent attack rate from Omicron. I can easily expect that.”

“Attack rate,” is how much of the population will be infected – and Bedford predicts that half of the United States population will catch the Omicron variant. Because the United States does not take a national approach to genomic sequencing, and not all hospitals test patients for COVID at admission, the number of people already hospitalized is murky. From the earliest reports, the hospitalization rate was between 2% to 5%.

There was little good news to be found over the weekend on the impact the new wave is going to have on the United States. In the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes Region hospitals are already at or over capacity and receiving additional aid from FEMA. Many states are struggling with dwindling testing funds and a lack of data because tracking systems were dismantled over the summer.

A cascade of drug makers indicated late in the week that the current version of monoclonal antibodies in distribution aren’t effective against the Omicron variant. Unlike vaccines, which target all antibodies, monoclonal antibodies only target one. The antibody that was “cloned” in the process was effective against previous variants but doesn’t produce a significant immune response with Omicron.

In a series of studies, only Sotrovimab, produced by GlaxoSmithKline, showed promise against the fast-spreading variant. The monoclonal antibody received Emergency Use Authorization ( EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on May 26. Health and Human Services (HHS) reported they would be distributing 55,000 doses across the United States this week, with Washington receiving 552.

Back in the UK, the National Health Service reported that on any given day, about one percent of the national health force would be absent from work due to illness. In London, the number of workers calling out sick surged 40 percent. In the United States, healthcare workers have been fleeing the profession for years, while nurses have complained about short staffing for over a decade. Area hospitals will be impacted dramatically if Omicron starts to infect their workforces.

HHS reported over 68,000 people were hospitalized with COVID across the United States. Statewide on Friday, only eight percent of acute care and 12 percent of ICU beds were available. In King County many hospitals are already at or above capacity, but not due to COVID patients. A shortage of staffed skilled nursing and rehabilitation beds has left patients ready for discharge nowhere to go.

Over the summer when patient loads were lower, the Delta wave brought Oregon and Washington hospitals to the brink of crisis standards of care while collapsing the healthcare systems in Idaho and Alaska. Hospitalization rates for COVID and non-COVID patients are already much higher as the region prepares to face the biggest challenge yet.

According to HHS, EvergreenHealth Kirkland had 19 acute care beds available while Overlake had 17. Both hospitals were reporting ICUs near capacity with 3 beds at Evergreen and 4 at Overlake.

During the Delta surge, states learned that activating the National Guard for nurses and doctors was a poor option. Trained hospital staff who are “weekend warriors” were frequently already supporting surging hospital admissions. The activation in some cases made staffing situations worse.

King County residents vented their frustration on social media about the inability to get a booster shot, find home COVID antigen tests, and PCR test results being delayed. In other circles, Seahawks fans raged against the scheduling change against the Rams due to coronavirus.

Officials in the UK pleaded with government officials to implement further public health restrictions to stem the tide of new cases, as models indicate that by January, the island nation could see 3,000 to 4,000 new hospitalizations a day. Londoners were already starting to deal with closed shops and restaurants, and delays in services because so many people have been sickened.

It is unlikely any additional restrictions will be implemented across the United States, where COVID has been turned into a political weapon. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) indicated in a Nov. 10 memo, “If a new COVID-19 variant emerges and new public health restrictions are imposed as a result, anti-government violent extremists could potentially use the new restrictions as a rationale to target government or public health officials or facilities.“

Numerous studies and growing real-world data from Africa and Europe indicate that immunity from prior COVID infections or vaccination without a booster provides enough protection to prevent severe COVID symptoms that result in hospitalization and death. Booster shots ideally received within the previous 12 weeks, boost immunity for more.

For people relying on viral vector vaccines such as Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, or Russia’s GNCEM, there appears to be even less protection without a booster. On Thursday, The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) endorsed the recommendation from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to recommend the mRNA Pfizer and Moderna vaccines over Johnson and Johnson. The decision was made due to the waning effectiveness of the J&J vax and nine confirmed fatalities, seven women including one from Seattle, and two men, from vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT).

A study published on Dec. 14 found that Moderna with a booster provided the best protection from Omicron, followed by Pfizer with a booster, and then Johnson & Johnson with a Moderna booster. The study also evaluated individuals who had a previous COVID infection and then got vaccinated. They found that immunity was better than vaccination without a booster, but not as robust.

Real-world data from Europe and Africa indicate that relying on immunity from a previous COVID infection is offering little protection from becoming symptomatic. Epidemiologists have stated it is possible to be infected with the Delta and Omicron variants at the same time. It also appears that natural immunity from Omicron won’t protect a person from a later Delta infection.

There is mounting evidence that Omicron is no more severe than Delta, but little evidence it is less so. On Friday the Imperial College of London released a report that found no evidence that Omicron is “mild.”

“The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.”

The challenge for the public and health experts is comparing the current global wave to previous spikes in COVID cases. During the original wave in the spring of 2020, no one had any type of immunity. When the Alpha and Beta waves came in the winter of 2020, vaccines were just rolling out. When Delta arrived the variant was more transmissible and more severe than prior strains. It also was capable of nibbling around the edges of vaccine protection due to its mutations.

Omicron has arrived in a population that has received a variety of mRNA and viral-vector vaccines with different doses as well as disease acquired immunity from different strains. The timing of receiving a vaccine, prior infection, or a combination also impacts how much immunity a person has.

Many people are more mobile and have returned to work and school while simultaneously taking fewer precautions. An additional challenge is the rate of vaccination is not homogenous, with highly vaccinated communities adjacent to vaccine-resistant populations.

All of these factors are obscuring the true nature of Omicron and because the United States does a poor job of genomic sequencing in some states, little is known about the current hospitalized population and which variant patients have.

Although data out of South Africa has been more encouraging, experts had warned that the recent end of the Delta wave, a higher than understood vaccination rate, and the youthful nature of the South Africa population would favor better outcomes. Although only 26% of South Africa’s total population is vaccinated, over 34% of the county was ineligible due to age. On Oct. 20, the nation expanded vaccination to 12 to 17-year-olds and introduced booster shots to adults on Dec. 9. In reality, 44% of South African adults are fully vaccinated, including 61 percent of people over 50. Additionally, only 5.7% of South African residents are 60 or older.

Researchers are watching King County closely for several reasons. The region is a leader in genomic sequencing and research. As Omicron moves through the region it will provide critical data to build a better understanding of transmissibility, the impact on public health measures, prevention and treatment, and how severe Omicron is. King County is highly vaccinated, but has pockets of low vaccine acceptance, providing a more realistic cross-section. Finally, New York City is almost unique compared to other US cities due to its size, reliance on public transit, and the number of people who live in buildings with communal areas.

Dr. Cameron Webb, the senior policy advisor for equity for the White House COVID Response Team shared early symptoms to look for if you start feeling ill.

Sore throat, espeically if it is more than mild
Headache
Fatigue – severe fatigue appears more common in children
Runny nose
Sneezing
Dry cough

County health officials continue to appeal for people to get vaccinated and get a booster shot if they are eligible. They recommend frequent hand washing and wearing an N-95, KN-94, or KN95 mask whenever you’re out of your home, and to stop using cloth masks. When it comes to Christmas and New Year’s celebrations and travel plans, it is recommended to test the day off and celebrate outside or in well-ventilated indoor areas.

Because of the systems put in place by King County Public Health and supported by County Executive Dow Constantine, the region is better prepared to provide vital data to the rest of the nation. It is very likely that by Christmas, Seattle will feel a lot more like March 2020 than December 2021.

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