Tag Archives: izyum

National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine strikes Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson again – July 20, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 21 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,065 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces still have not fully secured the oblast. Fighting for control of Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka continues.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Verkhnokamyanske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and the southern edge of Zolotarivka, from the T-1302 Highway, north of the railroad yard. Fighting in eastern Verkhnokamyanske continued, with Russian and Ukrainian sources calling it intense. Russian forces hit Ukrainian positions with artillery, rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and air strikes.

In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Zolotarivka area toward Verknokamyanske, Serebryanka, and Bilhorivka and were unsuccessful. Russian armor remains pinned at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Russian forces continue to attempt to push Ukraine out of Bilohorivka after its partial liberation on July 13 and have not been successful. Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces attacked Bilohorivka overnight in a rare night offensive and were unsuccessful.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, with Haidai reporting that the reconnaissance in force group advanced from Zolotarivka. The advance was unsuccessful and suffered heavy losses.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Spirne and Ivano-Darivka and were unsuccessful. To the south, Russian forces attempted to advance on Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful.

In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Bakhmut – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Bakhmut. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion with Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group dug in on the southern edge of Pokrovske.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in the area of the power plant. Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Ukrainian forces launched a night attack from the plant in an unspecified direction and were unsuccessful. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on the power plant and were also unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

The settlement of Hulyaipole was shelled by Russian forces causing major damage in the downtown region. The city has been shelled almost daily since March.

Kherson – Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge a second time with a barrage of 12 rocket fired from NATO-provided HIMARS, hitting the critical Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line) 11 times. Occupation leaders described the condition of the bridge as “poor.” Russian state media reported extensive damage to a concentrated area of the bridge deck, with several holes through the structure. Cars were still able to pass, but officials announced the bridge would be close to traffic for several days.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims five missiles were fired and four were impacted, but several videos showed three explosions on and just adjacent to the bridge. The bridge is the primary road connection across the Dnipro River, connecting the western and eastern regions of the Kherson oblast. The bridge was moderately damaged in the attack but is likely still serviceable.

A Russian Su-35 fighter plane was shot down near Nova Kakhovka. Initially, it was reported Ukraine shot down the aircraft near Lyubymivka by Nova Kakhovka. Russian social media accounts claimed it was a friendly fire incident. The Ukrainian Air Forces confirmed overnight a surface-to-air missile shot down the aircraft. The pilot was able to eject and landed in Russian-controlled territory.

Operational Command South reported that Russian positions in Snihurivka were hit by an air strike, destroying an ammunition depot.

Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Ukraine had liberated Arkhanhelske along the east bank of the Inhulets River. Ukrainian government officials have been reluctant to release detailed information on combat operations to protect operational security.

Fighting continued near Snihurivka, with the Ukrainian air force attacking Russian positions.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian forces fired Grad rockets from MLRS into civilian areas of Nikopol. More than 30 rockets hit houses and apartments, killing two and wounding nine. Ukrainian forces apparently retaliated by launching two “kamikaze” drones at Russian positions within the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. There were reports that two Russian soldiers were in the drone attack, and smoke was seen rising from near the compound.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that a small group of Russian troops attempted to advance on Udy, northwest of Kharkiv. The platoon size group suffered heavy losses and retreated across the international border.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrovne, Novomykolaivka, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Dolyna, Chepil, Semylanne, Hrushuvakha, Adamivka, Barvinkove, Bohorodychne, Arkhanhelivka, and Nova Dmytrivka.

A Russian missile killed one person when it hit the center of Kramatorsk and badly damaged an apartment building.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok.

Sumy – The settlements of Mykolaiv [Sumy], Bilopolska, Novoslobidska, Khotynska, and Esman was shelled by Russian forces from across the international border.

Odesa – Black Sea – A warehouse filled with debris in the port of Odesa was hit by a Russian Kh-59 cruise missile fired by a Su-35 aircraft over the Black Sea. The warehouse was a total loss, but there were no injuries. Russian state media claimed the warehouse was an ammunition depot for NATO-provided weapons and munitions, but there were no secondary explosions, and the fire, which sent clouds of black smoke over the city, was quickly extinguished.

Daily Assessment

  1. It has been four days since the operational pause “ended,” and Russian forces have been unable to gain territory.
  2. There are growing questions on how much combat strength Russian forces have left in Ukraine, given the inability to muster attacks with groups larger than a company with adequate armor, artillery, and air support.
  3. While Russia is setting conditions to advance on Siversk, Ukraine is setting conditions for a broader counteroffensive in Kherson.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine devastates Russian positions in Kherson using HIMARS – July 19, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,064 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui ordered Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov to prioritize destroying Ukrainian artillery and “long-range missile” systems as NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) wreak havoc on Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) and logistics. With Russian forces losing ground north of Slovyansk and suffering from Special Operation Forces (SOF) and artillery attacks in the forests west of Izyum, Shogui had indicated that Slovyansk was not the next target for the Russian military. It is more likely that Siversk and Bakhmut in the northeastern part of the Donetsk oblast are where Russia will focus next.

Luhansk – In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Zolotarivka area toward Verknokamyanske, Serebryanka, and Bilhorivka and were unsuccessful. Russian armor remains pinned at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Berestove or Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and held their positions near Spirne. They relied on artillery, rocket fire from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and air strikes.

In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Bakhmut – The most intense fighting continues to be in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant. Russian forces tried to advance from Myronivka toward the power plant and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Self-declared leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces had advanced north of Avdiivka, cutting off the GLOC to the embattled city and creating a partial encirclement. Russian FSB Colonel and former commander of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Girkin, dismissed the claim, noting that the DNR doesn’t have the combat power for an offensive of this scale.

Kherson – Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge with rockets fired from HIMARS, hitting the critical GLOC at least twice. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims five missiles were fired and four were impacted, but several videos showed three explosions on and just adjacent to the bridge. The bridge is the primary road connection across the Dnipro River, connecting the western and eastern regions of the Kherson oblast. The bridge was moderately damaged in the attack but is likely still serviceable.

HIMARS rockets hit an ammunition depot in Raiske, west of Nova Khakovka, producing secondary explosions. A second HIMARS strike destroyed a Russian barracks and logistics center near the hydroelectric plant on the bank of the Dnipro River. Another Russian ammunition depot in Beryslav on the north bank of the Dnipro River was also destroyed.

Operational Command South reported that Russian positions in Snihurivka were hit by an air strike, destroying an ammunition depot.

There was heavy fighting in Arkhanhelske, with Pro-Russian accounts reporting Ukraine had almost taken full control of the settlement.

Dnipropetrovsk – Dmytro Orlov, the exiled mayor of Enerhodar, reported that nine Russian soldiers stationed at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had been hospitalized after an “incident,” and several others had died. The European Commission Joint Research Center Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring map showed that radiation levels were normal across Ukraine.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian Armed Forces SOF raided Dementiivka north of Kharkiv, pushing Russian forces out of the settlement, killing 36 soldiers and capturing one. Ukrainian military leaders claim they captured the Russian unit commander with the Northern Fleet Russian Navy naval infantry.

In the settlement of Chuhuiv southeast of Kharkiv, an apartment building was hit by a Russian missile. The village of Lebyazhe and the town of Pechenihy were shelled.

Izyum – Southwest of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed further back from Dibrovne to the southern edge of Sulyhivka and liberated Brazhkivka.

Odesa – Black Sea – Northwest of Odesa, the settlement of Dachne was hit by several Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea. Pro-Russian accounts claim the target was Ukrainian command and control and ammunition depot. There weren’t any secondary explosions from the strike. Pro-Russian account Rybar reported that a cruise missile also hit the already severely damaged and defunct Zatoka bridge. Officials in Odesa reported six were wounded but no fatalities.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces appear to be struggling to renew large-scale combat operations three days after the operational pause ended.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense is holding off on an offensive to capture Slovyansk after declaring it was a priority on March 25.
  3. Selecting Siversk and Bakhmut as the first targets for the renewed Russian offensives indicates that troop strength remains weak.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russian Su-34 shot down by ‘friendly fire’ – July 18, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,063 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui announced on July 15 that the operational pause by Russian forces was over. In the first 36 hours since the announcement, Ukraine had the quietest day on the battlefield since February 24. The Russia-Ukraine War is entering Phase 3, but it remains unclear what that will look like.

Luhansk – Russian troops remained pinned in Bilohorivka and the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Attempts to advance into Donetsk were thwarted in both directions.

Near Alchevsk, during a Ukrainian High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) attack, air defenses of the Luhansk People’s Republic accidentally targeted a Russian Su-34 generation 4.5 fighter aircraft, shooting the plane down. The airframe has been identified as number RF-95890, a Su-34M. The M variant is the most technologically advanced version of the Su-34. The pilot was able to eject, with Ukraine claiming they captured the pilot behind the line of conflict. The wreckage was still smoldering at sunrise.

Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces tried advancing “near” Hryhorivka and were unsuccessful. There was also a report of a probe toward Serebrianka, which was unsuccessful.

Additionally, there is continued fighting in the Spirne-Ivano-Daryivka area with no change in territorial control. Spirne remains a no man’s land.

Bakhmut – Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk Region Administrative and Military Head, reported that the next Russian objective is Bakhmut. Russian forces shelled and fired rockets from MLRS at Soledar, Bakhmut, and the surrounding villages.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces attempted to improve their positions in Novoluhanske and advance on the Vuldhar Power Plant. Neither attack was successful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic attempted to advance on Marinka. Fighting continued overnight, but Ukrainian forces beat back the Russia-backed militia.

Ukraine claims to have hit a Russian ammunition depot in Mykilske with HIMARS rockets. The depot was stored with ammonium nitrate fertilizer, creating a large shockwave and clouds of telltale orange smoke.

Pro-Russian social media accounts were reporting Ukraine had liberated Solodoke, south of Donetsk city.

Kherson – Ukraine hit two Russian ammunition depots in Nova Kakhovka using NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Operational Command South of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the air force attacked “troop concentrations” never Davydiv Brid.

Dnipropetrovsk – The city of Nikopol was hit with over 60 rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) across the Dnipro. Civilians and civilian infrastructure were targeted. The Russian Ministry of Defense set up artillery and MLRS firing positions in Enerhodar at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, there were no ground attacks of significance from either belligerent. Russian forces had improved their position in Dementiivka on July 16, but were pushed back by Ukrainian territorial guard forces overnight.

Sumy – The settlements of Velikopysariv, Krasnopil, Khotyn, Bilopol, Shalygin, Novoslobid, Esman, and Seredino-Bud were shelled by artillery and rockets fired by MLRS from Russian positions across the international border. There were no reports of casualties.

Chernihiv – Twelve artillery shells hit the settlement of Snovsk in the Chernihiv oblast. There were no reports of injuries.

Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces made no attempts to advance on the line of conflict south of Izyum. Multiple reports indicated that Russian forces had lost control of Dibrovne.

Odesa – Black Sea – Serhiy Bratchuk, the adviser to the head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, reported that a majority of warships in the Black Sea Fleet had been relocated from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in Russia.

Beyond Ukraine – A Ukrainian An-12 cargo plane operated by the private company Meridian Air crashed in Greece. The plane had taken off from Serbia and was en route to Amman, Jordan, when it experienced a mid-air emergency. Witnesses said the plane caught fire and rapidly descended before crashing. All eight crew members were killed in the crash.

Daily Assessment

  1. It has been two days since the Kremlin announced the operational pause is over, and the operational tempo for ground combat remains low.
  2. Russian forces have increased the amount of artillery fire in the last 24 hours, but it remains far below the intensity of fire experienced in June 2022.
  3. We cannot confirm Governor Haidai’s statement that the next large offensive from Russian forces will be to secure Bakhmut. We believe that defending Kherson or securing Siversk will be the next major objective.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

All quiet on all the fronts – July 17, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,062 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui announced on July 15 that the operational pause by Russian forces was over. In the first 36 hours since the announcement, Ukraine had the quietest day on the battlefield since February 24. The Russia-Ukraine War is entering Phase 3, but it remains unclear what that will look like.

Luhansk – Multiple videos and reports from Russian state media confirmed that Russian troops have not been able to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and hold new territory. Russian forces shelled the ridge between the refinery and Verkhnokamyanske on July 15 – 16, while Russian armored vehicles have been unable to advance across the Luhansk-Donetsk border without facing heavy artillery fire.

Fighting for control of Zolotarivka continued, and Ukrainian forces continued to hold Bilohorivka.

NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) was used to strike a Russian antiaircraft battery station at the trolley barn in Alchevsk, Luhansk, and a Russian command base.

Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported their positions were shelled in Hryhorivka, and Russian forces performed aerial reconnaissance on Serebryanka. Despite reports of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatists, their forces have not taken either settlement or advanced into Siversk.

Russian forces continue to fight for control of Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka. Two small reconnaissance in force groups attempted to move into Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful in securing the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway.

Bakhmut – Russian forces shelled or fired rockets from MLRS at Soledar, Pokrovske, and Bakhmut.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka.

NATO-provided HIMARS rockets hit the Russian barracks in Lazurne, Kherson, on the coast of the Black Sea near Crimea.

Mykolaiv – Ten more missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv, likely S-300 antiaircraft missiles pressed into ground-to-ground service. There were reports of multiple fires but no additional information.

Sumy – The settlements of Hlukkhiv, Esman, Novoslobidske, Shalyhyne, Bilopillia, Khotin, and Krasnopillia were shelled by artillery and rockets fired by MLRS from Russian positions across the international border.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces made no attempts to advance on the line of conflict, relying on artillery fire and air strikes. It is the first time since April 17 that no attempted advances were reported.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Ukrainian forces were able to evacuate seven civilians from the Sviatohirsk Cave Monastery on the north bank of the Siverski Donets River. Up to 100 monks and 500 civilians that are pilgrims or those who sought sanctuary remain at the historic monastery.

Daily Assessment

  1. It remains unclear after the announcement that the operational pause is over what the Russian Ministry of Defense’s next move is – today was the quietest day since February 24.
  2. We believe the pause was too short and that Russian troops have not significantly restored combat power nor secured new gains in Luhansk.
  3. Pro-Russian accounts are now spinning the lack of progress along the Luhansk-Donetsk border to force Ukrainian troops to consolidate in Siversk and get them in a cauldron to be surrounded.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine liberates towns in Luhansk and Donetsk- July 16, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,061 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – On July 12, Ukrainian artillery shelled newly established Russian positions in Bilohorivka to set conditions for a counteroffensive. The next day, members of the Kraken Battalion staged a counteroffensive within the town itself. They engaged in intense house-to-house fighting that lasted for hours, forcing the Russian garrison to surrender. At least a squad-sized group of Russians were captured. The entire counteroffensive was documented.

Based on the verified raid of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka and Serebryanka in Donetsk are assessed as under Ukrainian control. Additionally, Zolotarivka remains contested. Ukrainian forces also destroyed Russian armored vehicles on the western edge of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on the hamlets of Nahirne and Bilohorivka [Donetsk], suffered significant losses, and returned to their defensive positions. The Ukrainian stronghold of Siversk was shelled, as well as Ivano-Darivka and Berestove.

Bakhmut – Russian artillery continued to concentrate on the towns around Bakhmut. Russian forces shelled Nova Kamyanka, Soledar, Pokrovske, Bakhmut, and Paraskoviivka.

The claims by the military officials of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic that Stryapivka and Nova Kamyanka were captured were false. An analysis of a propaganda video released by the republic claiming Stryapivka was captured revealed it was filmed in the town of Volodymyrivka. On Friday, Russian forces shelled and launched an air strike on Ukrainian positions in Nova Kamyanka.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces made several small attacks with platoon-sized groups toward Luhanske and Vershyna and were unsuccessful. Ukraine continues to control the Vuldehar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – South of Donetsk, Russian forces attempted to advance on Solodke, Volodymyrivka, and Pavlivka in the most significant offensive effort in weeks. The attacks were unsuccessful and Russian forces suffered significant losses at Pavlivka.

There are unconfirmed reports by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that a Russian Su-25 was shot down in the area of Orikhiv.

Kherson – In Kherson, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers launched six Kh-101 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea region at Dnipro. Four were intercepted, but two hit an “industrial enterprise” and the street of a civilian area. Three people were killed and at least 15 wounded in the daytime attack. One of the people killed was a city bus driver.

Kharkiv – there were no ground attacks of significance from either belligerent. A Russian cruise missile, likely a Kh-101 based on the size of the crater, missed its target and landed just outside of a school, causing moderate damage.

Sumy – The settlements of Shalyhyne, Hlukhiv, Seredyna-Buda, and Bilopillya was hit by mortar fire and artillery fired from positions within Russia. One person was killed and four wounded in Hlukhiv. Pro-Russian social media accounts claimed that Ukrainian forces fired counterbattery across the international border into the Russian settlements of Neslitsy and Dronovka.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Bohorodychne with Ukrainian forces advancing to the bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The Russian military has been blocked from advancing toward Slovyansk from the settlement, which has been shattered after almost two months of fighting.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Odesa – A Russian cruise missile struck a warehouse in Odesa, causing a major fire. There were no reports of casualties because the workers evacuated to a shelter when the air raid sirens went off. Thick black smoke rose above the city, but there weren’t any secondary explosions or indications that a munitions depot was hit.

Two Russian Su-24 aircraft bombed Snake Island in another attempt to destroy the equipment left behind during the June 30 retreat. At the mouth of the Danube River, 30 kilometers west, dozens of civilian bulk carrier ships are at anchor, waiting to load Ukrainian grain in Romania.

Kyiv – A Russian cruise missile was shot down in the Bilotserkivskyi District of Kyiv, with debris landing in Irpin. The warhead was located and defused, and there were no injuries.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to systematically terrorize Ukraine’s civilian population, using outdated munitions with low accuracy.
  2. While the Kherson axis has stabilized in the short term, the Izyum axis is becoming problematic for Russian forces due to supply interdiction and a continued heavy focus on the Donbas.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for the next Russian offensive.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

With Battlefront Frozen, Russia Terrorizes Civilians – July 15, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,060 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – We continue to assess Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka in the Luhansk oblast as contested. Neither belligerent has provided definitive proof they control either settlement.

A Russian ammunition depot in Kadiivka, Luhansk, was hit by High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) munitions. Multiple secondary explosions were recorded on video, with Grad or Smerch rockets launching from all directions. Thermite munitions were also launched from the burning depot, raining back down on the surrounding area.

Northeast Donetsk – Pro-Kremlin sources dismissed claims that the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic had advanced into and captured Siversk, calling the reports “premature.” The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that troop positions in Hryhorivka were shelled by Russian forces with artillery and rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

The July 13 Russian offensive on Verkhnokamyanske was costly, forcing Russian troops to pull back to reconsolidate units.

West of Popasna, Russian forces made a small advance on Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful. The settlements of Berestove and Vesele were also shelled. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed that Russian troops had been pushed out of Spirne.

The update posted on Telegram by FSB Colonel and war criminal Igor Girkin appears to be the most accurate assessment of current Russian combat operations. Russian forces are exhausted, lacking human capital and equipment, and are still in an operational pause.

Bakhmut – Russian forces shelled Pokrovske, Vesela Dolyna, Bakhmut, and Chasiv Yar to set conditions for a future offensive. The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar remained at 48.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces attempt to advance on Kodema and Vershyna while shelling Luhanske, Zaitseve, and the Vuldehar Power Plant. None of the advances were successful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Southwest of Horlivka, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic were partially successful in advancing into Kamyanka but, by sunset, had been pushed back to the original line of conflict.

Ukraine has claimed that high-ranking Russian commanders were killed in targeted HIMARS attacks over the past week. Russian state media reported that two deputy commanders of the Russian 106th Airborne Division, Colonels Sergei Kuzminov and Andrey Vasiliev, were killed on July 9.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Mariupol – In Russia-occupied Mariupol, city streets and yards remain littered with unexploded ordnance and landmines. Local residents report that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Chechen proxy forces stopped clearing mines and explosives from civilian areas.

Insurgents in Mariupol set the Satelit Factory on fire. Resistance leaders said, “It’s better to let it burn than to let the Russians loot and steal.”

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

There are strong indications that Ukrainian forces have started to advance south of Kyselivka.

Ukrainian Special Operation Forces raided a Russian POW camp at an undisclosed location in the Kherson oblast, rescuing Ukrainian POWs and civilian captives in the raid.

Mykolaiv – Ten Russian cruise missiles slammed into two universities in Mykolaiv. After one of the strikes, a video showed no additional fires, secondary explosions, military vehicles, or troop presence.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile destroyed a school in Synelnykove. There were reports of casualties, but no additional information was given.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Sumy – Russian forces stepped up cross-border attacks in the Sumy oblast, striking eight Ukrainian settlements. The towns of Myropil, Yunakivka, Esman, Nova Sloboda, Khotin, Shostka, Krasnopillia, and Velyka Pysarivka were attacked by artillery, mortars, MLRS, and small arms fire. There was no information on casualties.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Kurlka by Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SOF). There were no other territorial changes, with Russian forces once again attempting to secure the contested settlement of Bohorodychne. Ukrainian SOF, small units, and artillery continue to interdict Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) on the western front of the Izyum axis.

Vinnytsia – The death toll in Vinnytsia from the Russian cruise missile attack remained at 23, with over 60 wounded. Nine people remain missing.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense is systematically terrorizing Ukraine’s civilian population, purposely targeting non-military targets and timing strikes in daytime hours to maximize casualties.
  2. The Kremlin, LNR leaders, and Pro-Russian accounts have significantly overstated Russian gains over the last week, which have been minor.
  3. Ukraine continues to progress steadily in the Kherson oblast advancing along the entire axis, where Russian forces continue to struggle to hold defensive positions.

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Cruise Missile Attack on Vinnytsia Kills 22, Wounds 90 – July 14, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 20 weeks since the Russian-Ukrainian War began and 3,059 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

BREAKING NEWS: At least 22 people are dead and 90 wounded, 50 critically, after four Russian cruise missiles struck the western Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia on Thursday morning, destroying an office building complex and at least one building of a hospital.

The missile crashed into the city center at 11:00 AM while it was full of office workers and shoppers. Three missiles struck a complex of office buildings and a fourth hit a medical center. Debris set cars in a parking lot on fire, spreading to over 50 vehicles. Vinnytsia is 120 kilometers north of Moldova in western Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi addressed his nation, calling the strike a terrorist attack.

“Vinnytsia – a missile attack on the city center,” Zelenskyy started. “There are wounded and dead, among them a small child. Every day, Russia destroys the civilian population, kills Ukrainian children, and directs rockets at civilian [infrastructure]. Where there is nothing military. What is this, How is it not an open act of terrorism? Inhumans. A murderous country. A terrorist country.”

Vinnytsia Region Administrative and Military Governor Serhii Borzov reported that eight missiles were fired in the direction of the city. Air defenses were able to shoot down four.

https://malcontentment.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/293726709_420058033510548_283581556363458589_n.mp4
July 14, 2022 – rescuers search for survivors after a Russian cruise missile attack in the center of Vinnytsia, Ukraine

The Office of the Prosecutor General announced that a criminal investigation had been opened for “violation of the laws and customs of war.”

July 14, 2022 – a hospital building in Vinnytsia, Ukraine lies in ruins after taking a direct hit from a Russian cruise missile – the attack on the city killed at least 22 and wounded 90

Luhansk – To the best of our capabilities to assess the situation, we believe that Ukraine maintains a presence in Bilohorivka [Luhansk], and Hryhorivka is contested.

Video from Ukrainian forces showed Russian positions east of Bilhorivka [Luhansk] being attacked by 220mm rockets fired by an Urgan Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). There was a significant secondary explosion. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian positions in Hryhorivka were shelled by Russian artillery.

Northeast Donetsk – The Assistant Minister of the Interior of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, claimed that Russia-backed LNR separatists had captured Siversk.

FSB Colonel and war criminal Igor Girkin denied Kiselev’s claim, writing, that there aren’t any ongoing offensives, which aligned with reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“Nothing new at the frontline. The operational pause continues,” Girkin wrote. “Which does not exclude the artillery and missile strike exchanges.”

Russian forces interdicted the Bakhmut-Siversk Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line), firing artillery and rockets at Mykolaivka and Siversk.

Fighting continued in Verkhnyokamyanske and Ivano-Daryivka, with no changes in territorial control. Late on July 13, Haidai indicated the situation had “deteriorated,” and heavy fighting erupted in Verkhnyokamyanske.

Russian forces shelled Kryvya Luka, Railhorodok, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], and Yakovlivka, west of Popasana.

Bakhmut – Russia Imperial Legion terrorists attached to the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group pushed into Pokrovske. The reconnaissance in force group was unsuccessful and suffered heavy losses.

A small group of Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakolivka and were unsuccessful. Another group of up to two platoons tried to advance on Vesela Dolyna and Vershyna, but both failed.

Russian forces continued the systematic artillery attacks in the Bakhmut area, likely setting conditions for a future offensive. Pidhorodne, Opytne, Zaitseve, Kodema, and the Vuldehar Power Plant were shelled.

The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar has climbed to 48. Nine people have been found alive in the rubble. Search and rescue operations continue.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian positions in Horlivka were hit by artillery or rockets in a massive barrage on the city.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces struck the Russian-controlled city of Nova Kakhovka for a third time, destroying a large ammunition depot at the Sokol factory.

In the rest of Kherson, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Izyum – Russian forces were able to advance onto Kurulka from Dibrovne after more than a month of attempts to move forward. There was a report in the morning that the reconnaissance in force group had been pushed back north out of the settlement.

Odesa – Black Sea – The Russian Air Force attempted to bomb Snake Island with two Su-27 aircraft. The bombs landed in the ocean and did not strike the unoccupied island. The air strike comes just as Ukrainian grain started to move again through the Danube-Black Sea Canal, and more than 90 civilian bulk carriers await at anchor, some as close as 20 kilometers from the island.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they left Snake Island on June 30, as a gesture of “goodwill” to permit Ukrainian grain to start moving from western ports.

Daily Assessment

  1. There is significant confusion on the status of Siversk and if a Russian offensive is ongoing to capture the transit and supply hub.
  2. Russian artillery continues to methodically targets potential routes to advance on Bakhmut and Slovyansk but still lacks the combat power to launch significant operations.
  3. Overall the front remains frozen after President Putin announced the operational pause.

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Russian Forces Make Small Gains – July 13, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,057 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – Pro-Russian social media accounts shared a video of a TOS-1 thermobaric rocket attack against Ukrainian positions in Zolotarivka, which is in Luhansk. Based on the current combat video by Russian sources, the settlement of Zolotarivka is contested.

Ukraine hit a large ammunition depot in Luhansk city using the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). There was a major fire and multiple secondary explosions, including rockets. Pro-Russian unaffiliated journalist Starshe Eddy wrote, “Judging by the distant peals of explosions, something did fly to Lugansk. At first, the work of the air defense was…audible. Now the [booms] of detonation,” indicating that Russian air defense failed to intercept the rockets.

Northeast Donetsk – The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured the settlement of Hryhorivka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention the town in their report. Neither did Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor. The advance on Hryhorivka would indicate that Bilohorivka [Luhansk] was captured.

Additionally, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported air strikes against Ukrainian positions in Serebryanka, west of Hryhorivka.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Sprine and Ivano-Daryivka with air support from the Russian air force. The advance was unsuccessful, and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the retreat was “chaotic.”

Bakhmut – Russian forces launched a massive Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and artillery attack on Bakhmut, beginning to systematically destroy the infrastructure in the city. There were unconfirmed reports of fighting near Soledar in the settlements of Nova Kamyanka and Stryapivka.

The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar has climbed to 45. Nine people have been found alive in the rubble.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Vershyna and Novoluhanske, but there wasn’t ground fighting.

Slovyansk – Kramatrosk – Russian forces shelled Pryshyb, Mayaky, Kryva Luka, and Raihorodok, and are likely setting conditions for a future offensive on the cities turned fortresses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – An ammunition depot in Petrovskyi District of Donetsk at the Donetsk Transport Equipment Plant was hit by artillery. There were multiple secondary explosions as black smoke rose across the city.

RIA-Melitopol reported explosions and gunfire at a new Russian base in Myrne, Zaporizhia, north of the city of Melitopol. Ukrainian partisans reported that Russian forces moved the surviving equipment to the region after the airbase at Melitopol was destroyed by HIMARS rockets last week.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control or reports of significant fighting.

South Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an artillery strike destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Charivne. The settlement is on the Nova Kakhovka-Davydiv Brid T-2207 Highway GLOC.

Mykolaiv – Russian forces used S-300 antiaircraft missiles in the July 11 missile strike on Mykolaiv. Over 20 missiles struck the city, wounding 12. The use of antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role indicates that Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into Kherson could be compromised. Alternatively, Russia may be unable to get the electronic parts required to build new S-300 missiles capable of providing antiaircraft capabilities.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Russian forces hit the Industrial District of Kharkiv city with rockets fired from MLRS, injuring four people.

Missiles hit the industrial cities of Khrestyshche and Kostyantynivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed a warehouse full of recently delivered M777A2 155mm howitzers.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt offensive operations and relied on artillery, MLRS, and tank fire. The settlements of Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Barvinkove, Nikopol, Husarivka, Adamivka, Velyka Komyshuvakha, and Nova Dmytrivka were struck.

For the second day in a row, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian positions in Sulihivka were attacked. The settlement is believed to be under Russian control but is located on the line of conflict, which is very porous in this region. A video from July 9 shows Russian artillery and troops destroying four tanks and ground fighting east of Sulihivka.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukraine reopened the Danube-Black Sea Canal and did an emergency restoration to an unused Soviet-era river port to restart grain exports. The first 16 cargo ships have made their way into the canal, with up to 90 additional bulk carriers waiting their turn in the Black Sea. The port at Sulin can only accommodate four ships a day, with officials working to double the capacity.

Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Yuriy Vaskov said that by mid-August, the port would be capable of exporting 500,000 tons of grain a month.

Beyond Ukraine – Self-proclaimed Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko fired Major General Alexander Shkirenko. He was the Head of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. No reason was given for his termination, nor was a replacement officer announced.

Daily Assessment

  1. The operational pause continues and likely will for weeks. Russia continues to suffer a serious disadvantage in the number of trained light infantry troops available.
  2. Russian artillery methodically targets potential routes to advance on Bakhmut and Slovyansk but still lacks the combat power to launch significant operations.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
  4. We maintain that the risk of Belarus entering the war is extremely low.

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Ammunition Depot Destroyed in Nova Kakhovka – July 12, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,056 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

There were minimal ground combat operations through Ukraine today as the Russian operational pause continues. There weren’t any new territorial gains or losses that weren’t previously noted.

Luhansk – Russian Federation Armed Forces shelled Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka, indicating the claim from self-proclaimed Assistant Minister of the Interior for the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, that both settlements were under Russian control was false. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Head, reported that fighting continued in Bilohorkiva.

Northeast Donetsk – Neither belligerent reported significant fighting along the T-1302 Highway east of Siversk or in the Bakhmut region. Russian forces shelled the settlements of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Serebryanka, Siversk, Sprine, Ivan-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Zvanivka.

Bakhmut – There wasn’t significant fighting near Bakhmut or in the Svitlodarsk bulge.

The search for victims of the Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) attack on Chasiv Yar continued. Ukrainian officials have confirmed that 33 people have died in the Russian attack on two five-story apartment buildings on July 9. The attack on Chasiv Yar is the worst loss of civilian life since the April 8 missile attack at a Kramatorsk railroad station that left 59 dead.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Marinka and were unsuccessful.

Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast. The recently liberated settlement of Mali Shcerbaky in Zaporizhia has been shattered by three months of fighting.

Kherson – Multiple reports indicate that on July 9, Ukrainian forces destroyed a key command post in Russian-controlled Nova Kakhovka using NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) munitions. There are unsubstantiated claims of up to 12 military officers killed between the ranks of Lieutenant Colonel to Major General.

Ukrainian forces destroyed a major ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka on July 11. There were multiple secondary explosions near the hydroelectric plant and dam on the Dnipro River. The rebuke from Russian bloggers and unaffiliated RIA-approved journalists was swift.

Blogger Dimitriyen posted on their Telegram channel, “I often hear people surprised by the inability of the Russian command to adapt to new challenges – high-precision weapons or long-range artillery systems. It is necessary, for example, to disperse the equipment over different forests, move headquarters deep into the territory, and place ammunition in different locations. But that doesn’t happen. Why?”

Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery, rockets, and airstrikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykolaiv] to Osokorivka.

Mykolaiv – At least 20 missiles hit Mykolaiv in the heaviest barrage against the city since the start of the war. There was no immediate information on targets or casualties.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian forces struck the city of Radushne with three cruise missiles. Pro-Russian accounts claim that an ammunition depot was destroyed, but videos from the area did not show any secondary explosions.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian artillery battery and ammunition depot adjacent to the school in Hoptivka, near the Russian border.

Russian SRBMs and MLRS rockets hit Kharkiv and its northern suburbs through the night, leaving five dead and 31 wounded.

Izyum – Russian forces made another piecemeal assault on Krasnopillya, which was unsuccessful. Artillery and rocket fire was limited compared to yesterday, targeting Zakitne, Dolyna, Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Adamivka, and Kurulka.

Daily Assessment

  1. Frustration over the success of NATO-provided 155mm towed and self-propelled artillery, M270 Guided MLRS, and M-142 HIMARS is boiling over in Russian-controlled areas, dividing the online community over how robust Russian military capabilities are.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense is responding to the ongoing losses by targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.

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Death Toll Climbs to 26 in Chasiv Yar – July 11, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,055 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

There were minimal ground combat operations through Ukraine today as the Russian operational pause continues.

Lysychansk – Severodonetsk – There are claims that Russian forces captured the settlement of Hryhorivka on the Luhansk-Donetsk border and had advanced to the edge of Serebrianka. The only source for this claim is the self-proclaimed Assistant Minister of the Interior for the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, in a Russian state media report on TASS.

“Our units took the settlement of Hryhorivka. There was a very large fortified area, but our units took it,” Kiselev said.

Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai reported that “battles continue in Bilohorivka,” later reporting that Russian forces “ran several times” from Bilohorivka but did not report the settlement was captured.

Haidai also reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatist militia started forced conscription in Severodoentsk, with recently “liberated” Pro-Russian residents already being sent to the front lines.

Northeast Donetsk – Fighting continued on the eastern edge of Verhhnokamyanske. On July 9, Pro-Russian accounts claimed their forces had occupied Spirne, approximately 10 kilometers from the Ukrainian stronghold of Siversk. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention Sprine in their July 10 report indicating the settlement is likely under Russian control.

Bakhmut – The death toll in Chasiv Yar climbed to 26 after three Russian Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck two five-story apartment buildings at dusk on July 9. A video showed the third missile arriving several minutes after the first volley, as rescuers were arriving and dazed residents were leaving the buildings. Launching a second strike shortly after the first is called a “double-tap” and is meant to maximize casualties.

Ukrainian President Voldoymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack in a national address.

“After such strikes, they will not be able to say they did not know something or did not understand something.”

“Punishment is inevitable for every Russian murderer. Absolutely everyone. Just as for the Nazis.”

“And they should not expect that their state will protect them. Russia will be the first to abandon them when political circumstances change.”

East, and southeast of Bakhmut, Russian troops did not attempt any advances. The settlements of Kurdyumivka and Vershyna were shelled. Fighting continued east of Vesela Dolyna.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Pro-Russian bloggers, unaffiliated journalists, and former military leaders vocally complained about the now constant shelling and High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacks across the Donbas.

The former commander of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Russian FSB Colonel Igor “Strelikov” Girkin wrote on Telegram, “In the past 5-7 days over ten large artillery and other munitions stockpiles were hit, several oil depots, around ten command points and roughly as many personnel locations in our near and far rears. In addition to several air defense and artillery positions. This resulted in large [emphasis, Girkin’s]losses in personnel and equipment.”

He ended with, “When will the Russian Federation Armed Forces start fighting with full force?”

Girkin’s assessment was echoed by other influencers and leaders across social media networks, adding tension to an already deteriorating relationship between the Kremlin and frontline war reporters.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance from Novoselivaka Druha and improve tactical positions north of Avdiivka. They were unsuccessful.

Otherwise, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – President Zelenskyy ordered the Ukrainian military to re-establish control over “coastal regions” in southern Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, told The Times of London, “We understand that, politically, it’s very necessary for our country. The president has given the order to the supreme military chief to draw up plans. After that, the general staff are doing their homework and say to achieve this goal, we need XYZ.”

Yurii Sobolevskyi, First Deputy Chairman of the Kherson Oblast Council, told civilians in the occupied regions to evacuate or prepare for coming hostilities. “Our people need to leave,” he warned.

“Those who can’t do it…should prepare for the fact that shelter [from artillery, bombs, etc.] will be needed again. It is necessary to prepare a supply of water and…food in order to survive the offensive of our troops. We understand that our guys will work as carefully and surgically as possible to save every life, but war is war.”

Russian occupying forces are not making it easy. A bus ticket to Zaporizhia is 6,000 hryvnia/roubles. If a person wants to drive their car, there are a lot of challenges. An evacuee and their family need to have original passports, all required documents, no tattoos that could be connected to any pro-Ukrainian ideals or prior military service, phones that are wiped clean, and nothing that causes suspicion at any checkpoint. Additionally, they need proof of ownership for the car or power of attorney to prove they are allowed to take it out of Kherson. Ukrainian forces struck Russian barracks in the critical transit and logistics hub of Nova Kahkovka. It is common to have to bribe checkpoint guards 5,000 to 10,000 hryvnia/roubles to pass.

Ukrainian forces struck Russian barracks in the critical transit and logistics hub of Nova Kahkovka. There were unconfirmed reports of Russian casualties.

Kharkiv – There was no change in the line of conflict northwest and north of Kharkiv, and neither belligerent engaged in fighting. A Russian Iskander-M missile hit a six-story apartment building in the Osnovianskyi District of Kharkiv, causing significant damage. Two other missiles hit the city, destroying a school and a warehouse.

Izyum – Russian forces fired artillery and used MLRS to attack Ukrainian positions across a broad area west and south of Izyum, but did not attempt to make any advances.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukrainian capabilities to strike targets accurately well beyond the line of conflict are creating unrest among the Pro-Russian community and lowering morale.
  2. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
  3. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to target civilians using precision weapons increasingly in short supply.
  4. It is unclear if Ukraine will take the initiative in the immediate future – statements from Ukrainian officials indicate that the effort to retake southern Ukraine is in the planning stages.

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