Tag Archives: severe weather

Terra Firma

Historic Hurricane Eta sets sights on Nicaragua

Hurricane Eta is the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, tying the record for the most named storms in a single season. At 10:00 AM PST, Eta was 85 miles from the Nicaragua-Honduras border with winds of 120 MPH and heading west at 9 MPH. Forecasted predict that when Eta makes landfall near Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua, Eta will be a Category IV storm with winds of 140 MPH, a storm surge of 12 to 18 feet, and bringing as much as 35 inches of rain to the mountains of Nicaragua.

Nicaraguan officials order evacuations along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, a semi-autonomous zone with pockets of crushing poverty. Puerto Cabezas is home to 60,000 people, and officials have set up evacuation centers in churches and schools.

Forecasters, state officials, and humanitarian organizations are most concerned about the amount of rain Eta will bring to the region. With the hurricane expected to slow as it approaches Nicaragua, river and flash floods along with mudslides are of grave concern.

Nicaragua suffered more than 3,800 deaths when Hurricane Mitch made landfall in 1998, causing devastating flooding. It took the nation almost 15 years to rebuild infrastructure, and as recently as 2018, was considered a rising star of economic power. In April of 2018, civil unrest rocked Nicaragua when the Ortega regime slashed social security benefits. Widespread protests were met with a violent reaction by government irregular forces, armed militias, imprisonment, torture, and rape. Since the summer of 2018, global economic sanctions and travel advisors have destroyed the budding tourism industry.

Hurricane Eta is expected to cross Latin America and enter the Pacific Ocean later this week, creating the potential for a rare “cross over” hurricane. If Eta can regain tropical status, it would be only the 19th storm since 1842 to cross over and become, technically, a typhoon.

National, Terra Firma

Hurricane Zeta makes landfall in Louisiana with 110 MPH winds

Hurricane Zeta strengthened significantly above forecasted models as a strong Category II storm with 110 MPH winds and higher gusts, making landfall in Cocodrie, Lousiana at 2:44 PM PDT. The compact storm has hurricane-force winds extending 35 miles from the center and was moving at 24 MPH. Evacuation orders along the Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida panhandle had been sparse based on forecast models, and officials now worried about thousands in harm’s way.

Hurricane Warnings, Tropical Storm Warnings, and Storm Surge Warnings have remained unchanged since Tuesday, extending from Mississippi to Florida. As of 2:00 PM PDT, Zeta was 65 miles south-southwest of New Orleans. Storm surge, responsible for most hurricane-related deaths, was forecasted to be 7 to 11 feet at the mouth of the Pearl River on the Mississippi-Alabama border, and 6 to 9 feet at Port Fourchon, located at the mouth of Mississippi River.

Zeta is the 11th named storm to make landfall in the continental United States, and the fifth system to hit Lousiana in 2020. The National Weather Service is tracking three tropical waves across the Atlantic, any of which could develop into the 28th named storm, Eta.

Terra Firma

2019 has been a historical year for tornadoes

The United States has gone through a relative lull in tornado activity for the last six years. Starting in 2012, the number of tornadoes compared to historical data has been below average, as well as the number of violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes. The numbers have likely even dropped more because there were fewer people distributed in Dixie Alley and Tornado Alley to witness tornadoes. Additionally, tornadoes couldn’t be confirmed via Doppler radar like today, and it was harder to determine if a tornado was a single track storm (one tornado) that skipped up and down or multiple, discrete tornadoes that formed from the same cell, or different ones.

If you’ve been following the weather news, 2019 has been historical with the longest continuous tornado outbreak in US history. There have been more tornadoes in a shorter period. The April 2-3, 1974 Super Outbreak produced 143 tornadoes in 24 hours, including multiple EF-5 tornadoes. In one case several communities in Alabama were hit with multiple EF-5 tornadoes within 90 minutes. More recently was April 27, 2011, Super Outbreak that produced 173 tornadoes, in the same Dixie Alley region of the 1974 outbreak.

There have been more powerful tornadoes than the ones produced such as the 2013 El Reno tornado that killed Tim Samaras and his son and the 2011 Joplin EF-5 tornado that killed 161 people. This current outbreak has not produced any EF-5 storms (although the potential has been there) as of this writing.

What has been unique about 2019 is the duration of this outbreak, 13 days and counting as I type this, and the streak of “outbreak” will likely continue. During this period, the United States has averaged a bit more than 27 tornadoes a day. The distribution of these supercells has been wide, with tornadoes striking as far west as Oklahoma, as far south as Alabama, and as far north/east as Pennsylvania. Even New York City received a tornado warning for Doppler confirmed rotation (no touchdown apparent).

The weather is not climate, and the climate is not the weather. There are a lot of theories on “why” things were quiet for the last six years and to why things have been so violent this year, but nothing solid. As much as we understand about our world, deep scientific understanding of tornado development and strength remains a mystery. Why do some supercells produce monstrously destructive EF-5 twisters, while other cells with the same potential energy, the same mechanics, and the same development do not?

What has been unique this year is a deeply entrenched weather pattern of hot, humid air over the southeast, including historical heat, and cold, dry air to the north. This weather pattern is classic for severe weather development but usually appears for one to three days. The high pressure and low-pressure areas move along the frontal boundaries, and the pattern dissolves — June of 1953 provides a great example of how these weather patterns usual move. On June 8, 1953, an F-5 tornado tore through Flint, Michigan, killing 116 people. On June 9, 1953, the same weather system produced an F-4 tornado that ripped through Worcester, Massachusetts. That is a distance of about 800 miles over 24 hours. June 10, 1953, was a perfect day in Worcester as the cold front passed through, and brought drier, cooler air behind it.

In 1953 there was a lot of rumor and myth about why these massive tornadoes formed in areas where tornadoes of this strength haven’t been seen. Nuclear bomb testing, weather control tests gone awry, and that the Flint and Worcester tornado was the “same storm” that traveled 800 miles. None of this was true as the weather is not climate and the climate is not the weather.

For now, the current weather pattern that is creating an extended dry line with limited cap, strong shear, and some stunning MCAPE numbers (geek speak for the ingredients for tornado development) looks to linger over the United States for days – long range models are like throwing darts but for now it could be weeks. If you live east of the Rockies should keep your eyes on the sky and be prepared, oh, and calling in death threats to TV stations and weather reporters for providing breaking news on tornado warnings? What the fuck America?

Malcontent, out.