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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine liberates towns in Luhansk and Donetsk- July 16, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,061 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – On July 12, Ukrainian artillery shelled newly established Russian positions in Bilohorivka to set conditions for a counteroffensive. The next day, members of the Kraken Battalion staged a counteroffensive within the town itself. They engaged in intense house-to-house fighting that lasted for hours, forcing the Russian garrison to surrender. At least a squad-sized group of Russians were captured. The entire counteroffensive was documented.

Based on the verified raid of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka and Serebryanka in Donetsk are assessed as under Ukrainian control. Additionally, Zolotarivka remains contested. Ukrainian forces also destroyed Russian armored vehicles on the western edge of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on the hamlets of Nahirne and Bilohorivka [Donetsk], suffered significant losses, and returned to their defensive positions. The Ukrainian stronghold of Siversk was shelled, as well as Ivano-Darivka and Berestove.

Bakhmut – Russian artillery continued to concentrate on the towns around Bakhmut. Russian forces shelled Nova Kamyanka, Soledar, Pokrovske, Bakhmut, and Paraskoviivka.

The claims by the military officials of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic that Stryapivka and Nova Kamyanka were captured were false. An analysis of a propaganda video released by the republic claiming Stryapivka was captured revealed it was filmed in the town of Volodymyrivka. On Friday, Russian forces shelled and launched an air strike on Ukrainian positions in Nova Kamyanka.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces made several small attacks with platoon-sized groups toward Luhanske and Vershyna and were unsuccessful. Ukraine continues to control the Vuldehar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – South of Donetsk, Russian forces attempted to advance on Solodke, Volodymyrivka, and Pavlivka in the most significant offensive effort in weeks. The attacks were unsuccessful and Russian forces suffered significant losses at Pavlivka.

There are unconfirmed reports by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that a Russian Su-25 was shot down in the area of Orikhiv.

Kherson – In Kherson, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers launched six Kh-101 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea region at Dnipro. Four were intercepted, but two hit an “industrial enterprise” and the street of a civilian area. Three people were killed and at least 15 wounded in the daytime attack. One of the people killed was a city bus driver.

Kharkiv – there were no ground attacks of significance from either belligerent. A Russian cruise missile, likely a Kh-101 based on the size of the crater, missed its target and landed just outside of a school, causing moderate damage.

Sumy – The settlements of Shalyhyne, Hlukhiv, Seredyna-Buda, and Bilopillya was hit by mortar fire and artillery fired from positions within Russia. One person was killed and four wounded in Hlukhiv. Pro-Russian social media accounts claimed that Ukrainian forces fired counterbattery across the international border into the Russian settlements of Neslitsy and Dronovka.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Bohorodychne with Ukrainian forces advancing to the bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The Russian military has been blocked from advancing toward Slovyansk from the settlement, which has been shattered after almost two months of fighting.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Odesa – A Russian cruise missile struck a warehouse in Odesa, causing a major fire. There were no reports of casualties because the workers evacuated to a shelter when the air raid sirens went off. Thick black smoke rose above the city, but there weren’t any secondary explosions or indications that a munitions depot was hit.

Two Russian Su-24 aircraft bombed Snake Island in another attempt to destroy the equipment left behind during the June 30 retreat. At the mouth of the Danube River, 30 kilometers west, dozens of civilian bulk carrier ships are at anchor, waiting to load Ukrainian grain in Romania.

Kyiv – A Russian cruise missile was shot down in the Bilotserkivskyi District of Kyiv, with debris landing in Irpin. The warhead was located and defused, and there were no injuries.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to systematically terrorize Ukraine’s civilian population, using outdated munitions with low accuracy.
  2. While the Kherson axis has stabilized in the short term, the Izyum axis is becoming problematic for Russian forces due to supply interdiction and a continued heavy focus on the Donbas.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for the next Russian offensive.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

With Battlefront Frozen, Russia Terrorizes Civilians – July 15, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,060 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – We continue to assess Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka in the Luhansk oblast as contested. Neither belligerent has provided definitive proof they control either settlement.

A Russian ammunition depot in Kadiivka, Luhansk, was hit by High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) munitions. Multiple secondary explosions were recorded on video, with Grad or Smerch rockets launching from all directions. Thermite munitions were also launched from the burning depot, raining back down on the surrounding area.

Northeast Donetsk – Pro-Kremlin sources dismissed claims that the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic had advanced into and captured Siversk, calling the reports “premature.” The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that troop positions in Hryhorivka were shelled by Russian forces with artillery and rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

The July 13 Russian offensive on Verkhnokamyanske was costly, forcing Russian troops to pull back to reconsolidate units.

West of Popasna, Russian forces made a small advance on Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful. The settlements of Berestove and Vesele were also shelled. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed that Russian troops had been pushed out of Spirne.

The update posted on Telegram by FSB Colonel and war criminal Igor Girkin appears to be the most accurate assessment of current Russian combat operations. Russian forces are exhausted, lacking human capital and equipment, and are still in an operational pause.

Bakhmut – Russian forces shelled Pokrovske, Vesela Dolyna, Bakhmut, and Chasiv Yar to set conditions for a future offensive. The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar remained at 48.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces attempt to advance on Kodema and Vershyna while shelling Luhanske, Zaitseve, and the Vuldehar Power Plant. None of the advances were successful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Southwest of Horlivka, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic were partially successful in advancing into Kamyanka but, by sunset, had been pushed back to the original line of conflict.

Ukraine has claimed that high-ranking Russian commanders were killed in targeted HIMARS attacks over the past week. Russian state media reported that two deputy commanders of the Russian 106th Airborne Division, Colonels Sergei Kuzminov and Andrey Vasiliev, were killed on July 9.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Mariupol – In Russia-occupied Mariupol, city streets and yards remain littered with unexploded ordnance and landmines. Local residents report that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Chechen proxy forces stopped clearing mines and explosives from civilian areas.

Insurgents in Mariupol set the Satelit Factory on fire. Resistance leaders said, “It’s better to let it burn than to let the Russians loot and steal.”

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

There are strong indications that Ukrainian forces have started to advance south of Kyselivka.

Ukrainian Special Operation Forces raided a Russian POW camp at an undisclosed location in the Kherson oblast, rescuing Ukrainian POWs and civilian captives in the raid.

Mykolaiv – Ten Russian cruise missiles slammed into two universities in Mykolaiv. After one of the strikes, a video showed no additional fires, secondary explosions, military vehicles, or troop presence.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile destroyed a school in Synelnykove. There were reports of casualties, but no additional information was given.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Sumy – Russian forces stepped up cross-border attacks in the Sumy oblast, striking eight Ukrainian settlements. The towns of Myropil, Yunakivka, Esman, Nova Sloboda, Khotin, Shostka, Krasnopillia, and Velyka Pysarivka were attacked by artillery, mortars, MLRS, and small arms fire. There was no information on casualties.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Kurlka by Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SOF). There were no other territorial changes, with Russian forces once again attempting to secure the contested settlement of Bohorodychne. Ukrainian SOF, small units, and artillery continue to interdict Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) on the western front of the Izyum axis.

Vinnytsia – The death toll in Vinnytsia from the Russian cruise missile attack remained at 23, with over 60 wounded. Nine people remain missing.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense is systematically terrorizing Ukraine’s civilian population, purposely targeting non-military targets and timing strikes in daytime hours to maximize casualties.
  2. The Kremlin, LNR leaders, and Pro-Russian accounts have significantly overstated Russian gains over the last week, which have been minor.
  3. Ukraine continues to progress steadily in the Kherson oblast advancing along the entire axis, where Russian forces continue to struggle to hold defensive positions.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 10, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,053 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

There was no change in territorial control across Ukraine, with fighting limited to reconnaissance, spoiling attacks, and ad hoc offensives with groups of soldiers from squad to company-sized.

Lysychansk – Severodonetsk – Fighting continued on the Luhansk-Donetsk oblast border. However, the operational tempo slowed significantly. Fighting for control of Bilohorivka continued, with Russian forces making incremental gains. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Hryhorivka but were unsuccessful.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces tried to advance into Zolotarivka and Verkhnokamyanske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and were unsuccessful. Pro-Russian social media account Rybar reported, “The Russian Federation Armed Forces are fighting on the eastern outskirts of Verkhnokamyanske,” aligning with the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and local reports.

There was no additional noteworthy combat activity south of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery to the Svitlodarsk bulge.

Russian forces fired artillery and rockets at Berestove, Ivano-Darivka, Novoselivka Verknokamianske, Siversk, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Soledar, Fedorivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kurdiumivka. The Russian air force fired unguided rockets at the settlement of Spirne.

Ukrainian forces shelled Russian-occupied Yampil, Dibrova, Kreminna, Pshenychne, Vovchoyarivka, Mykolaivka, Oleksandropillia, and Komyshuvakha.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – There were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attacked Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka and Marinka. Neither attack was successful.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets hit eleven high-value targets in the Donetsk region overnight. An ammunition depot in Russia-controlled Chystiakove, 75 kilometers behind the known line of conflict, was destroyed.

Ukrainian forces also destroyed an ammunition depot in Shakhtarsk, 65 kilometers behind the known line of conflict. There are massive secondary explosions, including surface-to-air missiles, and local officials are evacuating the city.

An ammunition depot in Russian-controlled Zuhres, east of Donetsk, was also destroyed in a rocket attack.

An ammunition depot in Ilovaisk, southeast of Donetsk, was also destroyed. There was a massive explosion after four rockets hit the ammunition stockpile. The blast shattered windows up to 7 kilometers away.

A Russian ammunition depot was also destroyed at the Kalinin Mine in Horlivka. The Kalinin Mine is the largest coal mine in Ukraine.

NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) indicated the Kirovs’kyi fuel depot, hit by artillery or HIMARS-delivered rockets three days ago, continued to burn.

In Mariupol, at least three Russian Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) engineers were killed in the area of the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant. Efforts to demine Azovstal and the Illich Iron and Steelworks caused an accident setting off a large explosion and secondary fires from ammunition cooking off.

Adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Anton Gerashchenko, reported that the Almaz-Antey Company in Russia had drawn the ire of the Russian Ministry of Defense over the inability of Russian S-400 air defense systems to intercept High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems munitions. It is reported that the head of the company, former Russian prime minister Mykhailo Fradkov, assured the Kremlin the S-400 antiaircraft system would be capable of intercepting rockets launched from the NATO M-142 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS). We cannot verify the report’s veracity, but we can verify that the Pantsir-1, S-300, and S-400 air defense systems have been very ineffective against the HIMARS launched rockets.

Kherson – Russian forces sent squad-sized reconnaissance units toward Olhyne and Knyazivka. Both groups were discovered and eliminated. Russian forces continue to struggle to hold defensive positions across Kherson with the volume of artillery, rocket, and missile strikes slowing.

Russian forces fired six S-300 surface-to-air antiaircraft missiles, using them in a surface-to-surface capacity. The S300 has limited capabilities as a surface-to-surface weapon, but the fragmentation warhead and inertial guidance systems are not suited for this role.

Dnipropetrovsk – Three missiles struck the settlement of Radushne.

Kharkiv – Northwest and north of Kharkiv, Russian forces conducted reconnaissance in force and spoiling attacks on Dementiivka and Male Vesele. Neither attack was successful. There were reports of Ukrainian forces advancing toward the Russian stronghold of Kozacha Lopan. We cannot confirm the veracity of the report.

Izyum – Russian forces made piecemeal attacks on the settlements of Krasnopillia and Dolyna. Neither attack was successful. Russian forces shelled Chepil, Bohorodychne, Dibrovne, Adamivka, and Slovyansk.

Sumy – Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange cross-border shelling in the Sumy oblast. The settlements of Shalyhyne, Khotin, Esman, and Myropillia were attacked, with five civilians injured.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukraine has reopened the Danube-Black Sea Canal after emergency restoration work to abandoned Soviet-era river ports and infrastructure. The canal’s opening will permit grain to be loaded at one newly restored river port. Bulk carriers could sail south from Ukraine to the Bosphorus Strait and beyond.

Beyond Ukraine – Ukrainian ground forces started building minefields on the border with Belarus and installing engineered barriers. Belarus has ongoing military exercises planned to end on July 8 but were extended through July 15 – 16.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces do not have a short-term answer to the NATO-provided M142 HIMARS rocket attacks, devastating ammunition depots, command and control, and critical transit hubs in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv.
  2. After the operational pause concludes, we maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
  3. Supply interdiction by Ukrainian forces is impacting Russian military operations in Kherson.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 8, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,052 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 7, no territorial changes related to liberation or capture were reported, nor major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In the Luhansk oblast, Ukrainian forces are contesting control of Bilohorivka to the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces destroyed the Russian wet crossing in Pryvillya between July 3 – 6.

Ukrainian officials and Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Luhansk is not under complete Russian control. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) showed hot spots east of Topolivka and in the vicinity of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

In Russian-occupied Severodonetsk, an insurgency has already formed. Threats against the Chechen occupying forces and “wanted posters” have started to appear in the city.

Northeast Donetsk – There were widespread artillery and MLRS barrages by Russian forces in northeast Donetsk, likely setting conditions for a future offensive.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance into Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were able to advance into the eastern part of Verknokamyanske. Russian forces were held at the eastern edge of Spirne. Further south, Russian forces tried to capture the settlement of Berestove and were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut – East of Bakhmut, Russian forces have started to advance on Vesela Dolyna.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Vershyna. There were unsuccessful. Ukraine maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant and pushed Russian forces back incrementally in Luhanske. Russian forces suffered significant losses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Ukrainian artillery or rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) struck the Kirovs’kyi fuel depot causing a massive fire. An ammunition depot was also destroyed near the George Dimitrov Number 112 school in Donetsk.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets destroyed an ammunition depot in Shakhtarsk, 60 kilometers east of Donetsk.

Near Russian-controlled Melitopol, insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Novobohdanivka and Troitske.

Kherson – In Kherson, the sound of small arms fire could be heard within the city. The Russian base at Chornobaivka was attacked with artillery, and Ukrainian officials reported that up to 25 vehicles were destroyed. The area targeted was a repair center for light to moderately damaged Russian military vehicles, contributing to the unusually high number of losses.

Russian forces are trying to slow the Ukrainian advance west and northwest of Kherson, targeting Ukrainian-controlled areas with artillery and rockets fired from MLRS.

North of Kherson city, NASA FIRMS suggests there is fighting west of Ukrainian-controlled Lozove in Andriivka. Ukrainian attack helicopters fired on Russian positions in Davydiv Brid. Russian forces used artillery and MLRS to interdict the Ukrainian GLOC on the T-2207 highway from Osokorivka. Additionally, Russian forces did reconnaissance in force with understaffed platoons, launching two raids on Dobryanka and one on Myroliubivka. None of the attempts were successful.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces made another spoiling attack on Sosnivka and Dementiivka. Neither attack was unsuccessful. Otherwise, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery fire along the frozen front.

At least two Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck the Nemyshlianskyi District of Kharkiv city, killing three civilians.

Izyum – There are reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed the recently repaired railroad bridge in Russian-controlled Kupyansk, north of Izyum. Southwest of Pisky-Radkivski, NATO-provided HIMARS systems were fired at a forward operating training base and staging area for Luhansk (LNR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) conscripts, Russian Federation Armed Forces contract volunteers, and terrorists with the Imperial Legion reporting to Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group.

Russian forces made another ad hoc advance into Bohorodychne, backed by intense artillery fire. They were unsuccessful and returned to previously held defensive lines on the edge of the settlement.

Sumy – In the Sumy oblast, Russian forces fired small arms into the settlement of Shalyhyne.

Odesa – Black Sea – On July 7 under cover of darkness, combat divers from Ukraine’s 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center used underwater vehicles to reach Snake Island. Special forces cleared sea and land mines, performed reconnaissance, and raised several Ukrainian flags. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Serhii Bratchuk of the Odesa Military Administration reported that the Russian air force fired two cruise missiles at Snake Island that struck the pier on the island’s north side at dawn.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles at the disabled Moldovian flagged tanker Millenial Spirit. The vessel was abandoned at anchor off the coast of Odesa after it was attacked on February 25. It is reported the ship is on fire but still afloat. The smoke was visible from Odesa.

Two more Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles hit grain warehouses near Odesa, holding 35 tons of cereals awaiting export.

Beyond Ukraine – Belarusian armed forces have extended ongoing military training exercises until July 16. In another provocation, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Major General Ruslan Kosygin, said that in the event of “Western provocations,” Belarusian forces will strike primarily on the infrastructure of Poland.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, artillery and MLRS are still being used along the line of conflict, and civilians and civilian infrastructure continue to be targeted.
  2. Combat activity in the last 12 hours raises questions on whether the reports of an operational pause are authentic.
  3. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that in Ukraine, “we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,” is saber-rattling from the Kremlin unless Putin intends to declare war formally and mobilize.
  4. It appears that Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk, given the resistance against Russian advances on the edges of the Luhansk oblast.
  5. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed two to four HIMARS units on July 6 were patently false, and the NATO-provided HIMARS attacked critical military targets in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts.
  6. Russian forces continue to lose ground in Kherson despite bringing in reserve troops and increasing artillery fire.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 7, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,051 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 6, there weren’t any territorial changes related to liberation or capture, nor major combat operations by either belligerent across the entire theater. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Donetsk regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko urged the 350,000 civilians still living in the oblast to evacuate the area. Kyrylenko has stressed that fewer civilians will enable combat forces to focus on fighting and be less concerned about collateral damage.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Southwest of Lysychansk, Ukrainian forces topped a Russian advance toward Spirne.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok and may be setting conditions to start an advance from Lyman.

The most intense fighting in Ukraine was in the Svitlodarsk bulge. Russian forces tried to capture Novoluhanske and Luhanske and were not successful. Ukraine also maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. Insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak in an attempt to disrupt Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines)

Kherson – In Kherson, Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot adjacent to the Kherson city train station. Residents reported they could hear small arms fire coming from the direction of Chornobaivka.

Fighting continued near Snihurivka and at the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Inhulets River at Bila Krynytsya-Bilohirka.

Russian forces fired artillery and MLRS in the northern part of Kherson in an attempt to slow the Ukrainian advance. Fighting continued in Arkhanhel’s’ke.

Kharkiv – Russian forces attempted a spoiling attack on Sosnivka and were unsuccessful. Positional fighting near Vesele left the town contested but leaning towards Ukrainian control. Russian forces did airstrikes on Rubizhne [Kharkiv], a no man’s land in northeastern Kharkiv.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrivne, Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Velkya Komyshuvakha. Russian troops made a small advance on Kurulka to test Ukrainian defenses and retreated.

Sumy – The settlements of Myropilska, Krasnopilska, and Khotinska were attacked by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). There were no injuries reported.

Odesa – Ukrainian forces arrived on Snake Island and did a flag-raising. There is no intention of occupying the island at this time. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed a cruise missile fired at Odesa.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Federation Armed Forces entered a theaterwide operational pause, although we cannot determine how long this will last.
  2. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire by Russian forces is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  3. Russian forces appear to be setting conditions to advance on Slovyansk-Kramatorsk when the operational pause ends.
  4. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.
  5. Russian forces continue to struggle in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces continue to make incremental gains and can attack Kherson city.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 6, 2022

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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 19 weeks since the Russia-Ukraine war started and 3,050 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previously announced scaleback of the war in Ukraine, limiting total victory to securing the Donbas, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, as well as securing the land bridge to Crimea, has been pushed aside. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu declared the Russian army will continue the “special military operation” in Ukraine until the tasks set by President Putin are “fully completed.”

Chairman of the Chechen Parliament Magomed Daudov declared a jihad in Ukraine to defend Muslims in Europe during a visit to Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration that the Luhansk oblast had been captured was spoiled less than 24 hours later, with Ukrainian forces contesting the settlement of Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Pro-Russian accounts and the Kremlin reported that “cleansing” was continuing south of Lysychansk to clear the area of remaining Ukrainian troops. There continues to be no evidence that Russian forces captured significant numbers of Ukrainian troops, weapons, or ammunition in Severodonetsk, Zolote-Hirske, or Lysychansk.

There was limited fighting west of Popasna, with Russian forces likely securing the settlement of Spirne.

Northeast Donetsk – Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the terrorist organization Imperial Legion and Russian artillery, captured Klynove, east of Bakhmut.

Russian forces are likely attempting to collapse the Svitlodarsk bulge, launching an offensive toward Vershyna. They were unsuccessful. Fighting continued in Novoluhanske and at the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) recaptured the settlement of Novobakhmutivka, southwest of Horlivka.

Northeast of Donetsk city, a video from Russian state media showed that Ukrainian forces collapsed a small Russian-controlled salient south of Pisky and are in control of the Russian defensive positions.

In Donetsk city, a Russian ammunition depot stored in a heavy truck dealership was destroyed by a Ukrainian artillery strike. There were multiple secondary explosions. Ukrainian forces also destroyed a large ammunition depot near the railroad station in Donetsk, with multiple secondary explosions after the strike.

There were reports of fresh explosions in the port of Berdyansk. Russian and Ukrainian officials have stated this is related to unstable munitions exploding during an attempted recovery of the Large Landing Ship (LLS) Saratov, which sank on March 24. The Saratov was hit by a Tochka-U missile which damaged two more LLS vessels and heavily damaged a cargo ship.

In Zaporizhia, Ukrainian forces continue to advance on Polohy. Fighting and artillery strikes were reported in Novopokrovka.

Kherson – The Ukrainian counteroffensive continued in Kherson, with significant gains made. Ukrainian forces liberated Myrne, northwest of Kherson. Russian forces suffered significant losses near Tomyna Balka from artillery fire and air strikes.

Satellite images from July 5 show the airport and Russian base at Chornobaivka suffered heavy damage after two ammunition depots were destroyed days apart. The Russian base appeared abandoned.

Multiple videos showed fighting and artillery exchanges on the northern edge of Snihurivka, with Ukrainian forces 3 kilometers north of the city limits. The Ukrainian air force also attacked Russian defensive positions.

Ukrainian forces reestablished a wet crossing over the Inhulets River near Velke Artakove and Bila Krynytsya. The settlements of Lozove and Bilohirka are under Ukrainian control. Pro-Russian accounts reported that Ukrainian forces had pushed to Sukhyi Stavok, almost 10 kilometers south. There were reports of renewed fighting in Davydiv Brid. A Russian ammunition depot in Velkya Oleksandrivka was destroyed.

In the north region of the Kherson oblast, Ukrainian forces collapsed the Vysokopillya salient, liberating the settlement of Olhyne. Intense fighting in Arkhanhelske continued, with a Russian ammunition depot destroyed on July 5. Ukrainian forces fired artillery at Russian troops retreating from Olhyne, northeast of Novopetrivka.

Mykolaiv – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the city of Mykolaiv.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched attacks in three directions from the stronghold in Kozacha Lopan on the settlements of Sosnivka, Prudyanka, and Dementiivka. None of the attacks were successful.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Krasnopillya and suffered heavy losses. Ukrainian artillery hit Russian positions in Dovhenke and Sosnove, destroying Main Battle Tanks (MBT), Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV), and support vehicles. Russian forces also attempted to advance southeast of Velyka Komyshuvahka and suffered significant losses.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Chernihiv – Russian forces shelled and used MLRS on the border villages of Mkhy and Bleshnia in the northern region of Chernihiv.

Sumy – Russian helicopters fired rockets at the Esman in the Sumy oblast.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukrainian air defenses intercepted three Russian cruise missiles near Odesa.

Western Ukraine – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the Yarmolyntsi in the Khmelnytskyi oblast.

Daily Assessment

  1. Phase 2 of the Russia-Ukraine War is over.
  2. Russian ground forces in eastern Ukraine appear to be in an operational pause.
  3. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire in the northeastern region of the Donetsk oblast is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  4. Russian forces are struggling in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces are making steady territorial gains from the north, the west, and the southeast.
  5. Russia’s reset of its operational goals in Ukraine will be impossible to achieve without a formal declaration of war and full mobilization.
  6. The Kremlin is likely hoping to wear down western support by extending the war and capitalize on a looming leadership change in the United Kingdom and politically driven unrest in the United States, which closely resembles the start of “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland.
  7. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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