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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Mykolaiv shattered in missile attack – July 31, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,075 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance toward Siversk from any direction. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported fighting in Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, or Berestove. A small Russian reconnaissance group was discovered in the area of Serebryanka and neutralized.

Bakhmut – Russian forces are attempting to gain full control of Pokrovske and fighting continued. The northern half of the settlement has turned into a no man’s land where control is constantly shifting.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces continue to work on collapsing the pocket. The settlement of Semyhirya was attacked from three sides, with Russian forces advancing to the eastern edge of the town. Russian forces attempted to advance on Zaitseve and Travneve and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) continue to attempt to advance on Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Opytne, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. The General Staff reported that Russian forces had made some gains in Avdiivka but were non-specific. Russian sources had reported gains on July 30.

Russian forces made territorial gains north of Krasnohorivka, crossing the H-20 highway and reaching the railroad spur line. Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack from Opytne toward Spartak and successfully drove back the Russian advance.

Russian forces withdrew from the settlements of Verkhnii Tokmak and Chernihivka in Zaporizhia after their positions were shelled. The Ukrainian General Staff reports the roads have been mined. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims this is part of a planned troop rotation.

Kherson – In Kherson, the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridge was attacked for a second time and is likely unusable through the rest of the war. The attack hit the bridge at the abutment, breaking the girders that connect the bridge girders and smashing the top deck.

Operational Command South reported that the Ukrainian air force flew multiple sorties on the settlement of Russian-controlled Beryslav and destroyed two ammunition depots.

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Mykolaiv – Oleksandr Sienkevych, the Mayor of Mykolaiv, reported the city experienced “the strongest ever” missile and rocket attack of the war. The city was hit with at least 40 missiles and rockets fired by multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Oleksii Vadaturskyi, a Hero of Ukraine and the owner of the major grain trading company Nibulon, and his wife were killed when a rocket struck their house. Vadaturskyi was 74.

Zaporizhia – The Nikopolskyi District of Zaporizhzhia was struck by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). One person was injured in the attack, which knocked out water and natural gas service.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv as the front remained frozen. The Nemyshlianskyi District in Kharkiv city was hit by a missile overnight.

Izyum – Russian forces increased ground combat activity after an extended lull on the axis. A Russian reconnaissance unit moved along the line of conflict between Nova Husarivka and Husarivka but was repelled. Another recon group tried to scout Ukrainian positions in Dolyna but was unsuccessful, and a Russian advance into Dmytrivka failed.

The General Staff reported that Ukrainian positions “near” Andriivka [Kharkiv] were shelled. This information indicates that marginal gains have been made from the west, and we now consider the settlement contested. In Svatove, 65 kilometers east-northeast of Izyum, insurgents destroyed switching and control boxes for the railroad lines.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor reported that Velyka Pysarivka, Bilopillya, and Seredyna-Buda were shelled by mortar and artillery fire.

Odessa – A pilot boat hit an improvised explosive device at the mouth of the Bystroye Canal, causing significant damage. The vessel lost power and drifted out of the shipping canal but did not sink. The crew was rescued, but the canal used for the transit of Ukrainian grain was closed.

A Russian missile attack on the Odesa oblast hit a mine at a quarry. The specific location was not reported at press time.

Sevastopol – The Russian state media news agency TASS reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to attack the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Russian-occupied Sevastopol. According to mayor Mikhail Razvozzhaev, five people were injured in the attack. Area officials canceled Navy Day festivities and advised all persons to stay home.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces are attempting broad but ineffective offensive operations to spread Ukrainian military resources and attempt to force a delay in pending larger counteroffensives.
  2. Increased shelling and reconnaissance in the Chepil region of the Izyum axis likely is not a precursor to a larger offensive in this direction, given Russian failures at contested water crossings.
  3. Russian forces continue to lose ground south of Izyum, reinforcing previous assessments that Russian combat power has reached a culmination point on this axis.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

PMC Wagner Group tortures Ukrainian POW in shocking video – July 29, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,073 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. Here is your daily Russia-Ukraine War summary

Luhansk – A disturbing video emerged of a bound Ukrainian POW being castrated with a box cutter and then stomped on by a terrorist with the PMC Wagner Group in Severodoentsk sometime in June. The POW was bound and restrained by multiple mercenaries and made blood-curdling screams as he was hacked for more than 45 seconds in the horrific video. After severing the genitals, the mercenary holds it up to the camera and tosses it on the ground by the man’s head. The video was found on the cellphone of a dead soldier, analyzed by Ukrainian intelligence, and leaked to social media. The video has been deemed authentic, and the perpetrator in the video has been identified.

Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets released a statement that his office was preparing a message to the United Nations Committee Against Torture.  “As the Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament] Commissioner for Human Rights, I have applied to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to verify the facts and to record a war crime and a violation of the norms of the Geneva Convention,” he wrote in a statement.

“We will hold consultations with the International Committee of the Red Cross again to increase the pressure by the countries from around the world on the Russian side to fulfill its obligations regarding prisoners of war and to allow access of ICRC representatives to the POW to assess their health and conditions of detention.”

Additionally, proceedings will be entered under Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine against the identified individual who committed the torture.

Russian forces did not attempt to advance from the administrative borders of Luhansk, instead relying on artillery, indirect fire from tanks, and airstrikes in northeast Donetsk oblast.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted reconnaissance to determine the position and strength of Ukrainian forces in Berestove and Nahime. Neither advance was successful.

Bakhmut – Near Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakovlivka and were unsuccessful. East of Soledar, fighting continued near the town. Russian forces attempted to advance on Bakhmut from Klynove along the M03 Highway and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also shelled Bakhmut and Vesela Dolyna. The Russian air force attacked Yakovlivka, Pokrovske and Vesela Dolyna.

West of the Svitlodarsk bulge, terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion with PMC Wagner Group, attempted to advance on Semyhira and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – The Ukrainian Directorate of Intelligence (SBU) is accusing PMC Wagner Group of destroying a building at the Olenivka Penal Colony that held prisoners of war from the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant. Local officials in Donetsk report up to 50 POWs were killed on July 28 and claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled the prison camp. Ukrainian officials have demanded the United Nations, Red Cross, and Red Crescent perform an immediate investigation. The SBU claims the order to kill the prisoners was made by Yevheny Prigozhin, the head of PMC Wagner Group.

In a statement on Telegram, the SBU wrote, “The explosions in Olenivka are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism by the occupying forces side. According to the available information, they were carried out by mercenaries from the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) under the personal command of the nominal owner of the specified PMC, Yevheny Prigozhin. The organization and execution of the terrorist attack was not agreed with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.”

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted to advance on Avdiivka and Pisky and were unsuccessful. In Pisky, Russian forces wore Ukrainian uniforms in an attempt to deceive defending forces.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka from Donetsk and were unsuccessful. It was reported that Russian forces made small gains in Marinka, advancing a couple of hundred meters to a slag heap.

Russian forces launched a small offensive toward Velkya Novosilvika from Blahodatne and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces fired rockets from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) on a large ammunition depot in Illoviask. The attack produced multiple secondary explosions that continued hours after the strike.

Kherson – Russian combat engineers made temporary repairs to the bridge over the Inhulets River at Darivka, enabling light vehicle traffic to cross the bridge.

Ukrainian forces have likely made advances toward Novopetrivka, tightening the partial encirclement of Russian forces in Vysokopillya.

Ukrainian forces fired rockets from HIMARS, destroying an ammunition depot in Brylivka. This strike is the second Russian based on the Crimea Canal that has been attacked in the last 24 hours.

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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired up to six missiles into the city of Mykolaiv. Three hit the city, destroying School Number 47, damaging the Yacht Club, and destroying an agricultural warehouse in the main port. Early in the morning on July 29, a Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile used in a ground-to-ground role struck a bus stop in Mykolaiv, killing five and wounding 12.

Oleksandr Sienkevych, Mayor of Mykolaiv reported, “The strike was conducted with an anti-aircraft missile, so the affected area is very large. It covers several hundred meters. That is why there are so many casualties. There are still people with slight injuries who will recover at home after receiving medical attention.”

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv. The line of conflict remains frozen with Russian artillery, rockets from MLRS, cruise missiles, and SRBMs prioritizing civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Russian and Ukrainian forces also exchange artillery and rocket fire from MLRS southeast of Chuhuiv. Russian forces shelled and fired rockets into Pechenihy, Bazaliivka, Lebyazhe, and Korobochkyne.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted reconnaissance in force near Brazhivka and were unsuccessful, suffering significant losses.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and artillery struck the settlements of Krasnopillya, Shalyhyne, and Brusky. There weren’t reports of injuries or significant damage.

Kyiv – Russian missiles hit a military base in Lyutizh, north of Kyiv. One building was destroyed and another was damaged.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces have initiated or are setting conditions for a significant offensive west of Donetsk but likely do not have the combat power to be successful.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to be abandoning attempts to secure Slovyansk and Siversk in favor of Bakhmut and areas west of Donetsk.
  3. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian combat losses are becoming closer to losses suffered in April and the first week of May and disproportional to Ukrainian losses in the field.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia fires missiles from Belarus on Kyiv and Chernihiv – July 28, 2022 Ukraine update

Updated 10:10 AM – There are reports of fatalities at Kanatove Air Base.

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,073 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Kyiv – At least three Iskander-M missiles fired from Belarus struck an industrial facility in Vyshorod, northwest of Kyiv. Two large plumes of smoke were visible over the settlement. The missiles were fired from the Gomel area of Belarus. There were no casualties reported.

Luhansk – Fighting continued along the administrative border of the Luhansk. Russian forces attempted to advance on Verkhnokamyanske from Bilohorivka [Luhansk] and were unsuccessful. Russian forces remained stuck at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and did not attempt any advances.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian and Ukrainian forces fought only skirmishes in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. Ukrainian forces maintained control of Berestove.

Bakhmut – East of Soledar, fighting to control Stryapivka continued and was limited to small arms fire without armor support. Fighting within Pokrovske continued.

The fiercest fighting continues to be west of the Svitlodarsk bulge. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group attempted to advance on Kodema and Semyhrija but were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian troops and the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) separatist militia heavily shelled Avdiivka, Pisky, and Marinka. Avdiivka was continuously shelled for five hours. Self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev claimed in Telegram that this was part of a larger offensive and a direct assault on Avdiivka. He labeled the activity as “preparation work” but was non-specific on the target of a ground offensive.

It was reported that Russian forces attacked in the direction of Hulyaipole, but the origination point was unspecified. The attempted advance was unsuccessful.

Kherson – Russian barracks in Chornyanka were struck in a rocket attack fired by HIMARS. Russian forces staying at the football stadium (soccer for Americans) and the buildings across the street practiced inadequate Operational Security (OPSEC) in mid-July, sharing pictures of the base.

In Kherson, Ukrainian forces disabled the Antonovskiyy bridge, Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridge, and the Nova Kakhovka bridge that goes over the Kahhovka Hydro Electric Dam. The Antonovskiyy and Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridges are irreparable until after the war.

Additionally, Russian forces built a pontoon bridge over the Inhulets River at Darivka and have attempted to camouflage it with foliage. To bypass the Antonovskiyy Bridge, A ferry was established using a bridging tug to tow four pontoon bridge sections. The “ferry” is hugging the damaged bridge as a shield and combines civilian and military traffic.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Andriivka [Kherson] from Novohrednjeve and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attempted to advance on Bilohirka from Bruskynske and were also unsuccessful.

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Mykolaiv – S-300 antiaircraft missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv in a ground-to-ground capacity. A school was virtually destroyed, and the ship-building university was damaged. A security guard was injured in the attack.

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives. There were positional battles and reconnaissance in force near Sonivka-Kozacha Lopan, Dementiivka, and Tsupivka. The line of conflict remains frozen with Russian artillery, rockets from MLRS, cruise missiles, and SRBMs prioritizing civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Two S-300 antiaircraft missiles used in a ground-to-ground role struck the center of Kharkiv. There wasn’t any significant damage, but a police officer was killed when one of the missile landed near a power plant.

The city of Chuhuiv, 65 kilometers southeast of Kharkiv, was shelled, with Russian forces targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Izyum – South of Izyum, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that Ukrainian troops had advanced to Pasika and attacked a Russian reconnaissance unit in the area. The settlement is 6 kilometers north of the previously known line of conflict. The General Staff also reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reported that the settlement of Brazhvivka had been shelled. The exiled City Council of Borova reported that almost all Russian troops had left the settlement, with only a small security force remaining. The council claims that Borova came under artillery fire from the south, suggesting it came from Pidlyman, which we believe is still under Russian control. One civilian was killed.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and artillery struck the settlements of Esman and Seredyna-Buda. There was no damage and no casualties.

Chernihiv – Operational Command North reported that up to 20 Iskander-M missiles were fired from Belarus into Ukraine, with nine landing near Honcharivs’ke in the Chernihiv Oblast. The missiles landed in the forest west of the settlement.

Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was attacked again on Wednesday morning with reports of significant damage, aircraft losses and many causalities. An updated report stated 5 were killed and 25 wounded, including 13 military personnel. Missiles hit two hangars for training aircraft and there were cadets on the base.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
  2. Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Kherson Cut Off – July 27, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 22 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,072 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – Russian forces remain blocked at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Another attempt to advance on Verkhnokamyanske was made, and it was unsuccessful. Russian forces also attacked Hryhorivka, supported by airstrikes, but could not break through Ukrainian defenses.

Northeast Donetsk – Positional battles continued in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. On the morning of July 25, Ukrainian forces reported they had liberated Berestove. Late on July 25, it appeared Russian forces had recaptured the settlement for the second time Early on the morning of July 27, Ukrainian forces recaptured the town. The village is completely destroyed from months of fighting, and the T-1302 Highway is badly damaged.

Bakhmut – East of Soledar, Russian forces occupied Stryapivka temporarily. They likely attempted to extend too far into Soledar and were pushed back by Ukrainian forces. Fighting for control of the village continued.

Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group claimed to have fully secured Pokrovske, east of Bakhmut. Reports of continued fighting, artillery, and airstrikes indicate that gains have likely been overstated.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant and Luhanske on the evening of July 25. Ukrainian forces also withdrew from Novoluhanske to avoid becoming encircled. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group were confirmed to be on the power plant grounds. Russian forces attempted to advance from Roty to Semyirya to seal off retreating Ukrainian troops and were unsuccessful. Russian forces needed 62 days to advance 5.5 kilometers and secure the power plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Pavlivka and were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges from Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces using High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacked the Antonovskiyy Bridge for the third time and the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge. The Antonovskiyy Bridge is severely damaged with significant structural damage. Russian state media reported the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge was damaged but did not provide further details. Russian forces in Kherson are now cut off from road and rail lines on the west side of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces have completed construction of a pontoon bridge adjacent to the destroyed Darivika Bridge over the Inhulets River. Due to poor operational security, it is likely the bridge will be a priority target in the coming days.

Operational Command South reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Bilohirka, indicating the settlement is still under Russian control. It was also reported that Andriivka [Kherson] and Lozove are liberated.

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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role and Kh-59 cruise missiles at Mykolaiv. Up to eight missiles struck an already destroyed railroad bridge over the Inhulets River,  one missile hit the port, and another hit a thermal plant.

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives from July 25 to July 26 north or northeast of Kharkiv. Both sides fired artillery rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and fired from tanks.

Ukrainian forces used a Switchblade 300 kamikaze drone to attack a car at the Russian border checkpoint in Troebortnoe, north of Kharkiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims one person was killed, a Moldovian citizen, and two were wounded. Ukraine claims that two FSB agents were killed.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated. With reconnaissance in force, Russian forces attempted to advance on Chepil and suffered heavy losses.

There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces withdrew from Yatskivka and Studenok. We had previously reported that Russian troops had been pushed entirely out of Bohorodychne. Additionally, between July 21 and July 25, the bridge between Russian-controlled Yarmivka and Studenok was destroyed. In Russian-controlled Borova, a HIMARS strike hit the railroad yard, where Russian military equipment was staged for transport.

The Exiled Borova City Council reported that Russian troops have been withdrawing from the Izyum axis since July 22. Troops are reportedly moving north, and the field hospital for wounded Russian soldiers in Borova was closed.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and rockets fired by MLRS struck the settlements of Esman, Krasnopillya, and Seredyna-Buda.

Chernihiv – Viacheslav Chaus, head of the Chernihiv Oblast State and Military Administration, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Leonivka and Hirsk.

Odesa – The Russian air force launched a massive attack on the village of Zatoka and the already destroyed Zatoka bridge. Up to 13 cruise missiles hit the village and the disabled span. The missile attack damaged or destroyed 155 buildings in the restive seaside resort town.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
  2. Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.

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Breaking News, National, Russia-Ukraine War

Port of Odesa hit by cruise missiles – Russia negotiated grain deal in bad faith – July 23, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,068 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations to permit grain exports from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port, Port of Odesa, and Pivdennyi [South] Port, Kalibr cruise missiles launched by the Russian Black Sea fleet slammed into the Port of Odesa.

Russia and Ukraine did not sign an agreement between the two nations, instead signing separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations, which would permit Ukraine to export up to 20 million tons of grain over the next 120 days. The agreement did not specify that Russia could not attack Ukrainian ports explicitly. However, with continued attacks, civilian port operations with cargo ships entering and exiting will be impossible.

Insurance rates for cargo vessels operating in the Black Sea have already skyrocketed, with over a dozen commercial vessels seized, bombed, or hit by Russian missiles since February 25 and one bulk carrier striking a mine.

Luhansk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military head, reported that Ukraine still controls two settlements in the Luhansk Oblast.

Northeast Donetsk – Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Ivano-Daryivka through Spirne and were unsuccessful.

Russian forces fired artillery at civilians, civilian infrastructure, and Ukrainian military positions in Siversk, Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Spirne. The Russian air force also attacked Sprine.

Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.

Bakhmut – Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group made small advances into the southern part of Pokrovske. Limited fighting occurred near the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant.

Artillery was fired on Bakhmut, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Pokrovske, and Vesela Dolyna.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Vodyane from Vesele.

HIMARS rockets struck an ammunition depot within the machinery plant in Russian-controlled Horlivka, northeast of Donetsk. Secondary explosions thundered across the city as the ammunition stored in the factory started to cook off.

In the south Donbas, there were artillery exchanges from Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Russian state media claims Ukraine attacked the Antonovskiy Bridge for the third time, but there are no photos or videos to support the reports. Russian officials report they will not attempt to repair the bridge. Instead, they plan to build a pontoon bridge to the south. The bridge is reported to be severely damaged and will take too long to repair.

Ukraine, likely using HIMARS rockets, moderately damaged the Russian-controlled Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River. The bridge is a critical water crossing on the 140-kilometer detour route for Russian armor and military supplies after the Antonovskiy Bridge was damaged in attacks earlier this week. Without the crossing, a large region of Russia-controlled Kherson will be cutoff from overland supply routes

Multiple reports are quoting different sources that up to 2,000 Russian troops are partially encircled in Vysokopillya.

Presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych provided additional details during a television interview, which clarified the situation more. Arestovych reported that Russian forces are 75% encircled in Vysokopillya. On July 21, Russian forces attempted a breakout by heading south through the opening in the salient but were pushed back by Ukrainian artillery fire.

Arestovuch reported they are two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) trapped, with an estimated 1,000 troops blocked from leaving the town. He said that Ukraine would not offer a green corridor for evacuation but would likely demand their surrender.

Russian forces captured Oleksandrivka [Kherson] on the banks of the Dnipro River.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed the T-2207 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) south of Davydiv Brid.

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Zaporizhia – A video showed Russian tent barracks on the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar being attacked by kamikaze drones. The tents were located about 300 meters from the reactor blocks. Using a nuclear power plant for barracks and as a firebase to launch artillery and rockets represents a break from accepted military protocol, which considers nuclear power plants “no go” zones. Three Russian soldiers were killed and nine wounded in the attack. Additionally, a Grad Mulitple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which was parked between two cooling towers for the plant, was damaged in the attack. The video and pictures published after the strike show that no part of the nuclear power plant was damaged.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted a ground assault on Udy and there were skirmishes in Tsupivka and Dementiivka.

Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.

Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.

Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis. In Prydonetske, Ukrainian artillery destroyed an entire artillery company, including eight 152mm towed howitzers, ammunition, and command and control. Prydonetske is located east of Izyum in the area Russians call “Sherwood forest.”

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyginsk and Krasnopil were shelled.

Odesa – Four Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Russian Black Sea Fleet targeted the Port of Odesa, with two striking the facility. Serhii Bratchuk, an Odesa Military administration spokesperson, said two missiles hit the port, and Ukraine’s air defense shot down two. The port suffered moderate damage, and a fire broke out, but the missiles missed the grain silos. The attack came less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to provide safe corridors for grain exports. The reaction from officials was swift and furious.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres “unequivocally” condemned the attack through a spokesperson.

“Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “This indicates only one thing: no matter what Russia says and promises, it will find ways how not to fulfill it. Geopolitically, with weapons, bloody or not, but it has several vectors, [this is] how it always acts.”

“That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added on Twitter. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said the bloc “strongly condemns” the attack.

People’s Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko wrote on Telegram, “There is a fire in the port of Odesa. Here is a grain corridor for you. These bastards are signing contracts with one hand and sending missiles with the other.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Nikolenko wrote, “It took less than 24 hours for the Russian Federation to launch a missile strike on the territory of the city of Odesa to question the agreement, and the promises it made to the UN and Turkey in the document signed yesterday in Istanbul.”

“The Russian missile is Vladimir Putin spitting in the face of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, who made a huge effort to reach the deal, and to whom Ukraine is grateful.”

The US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget A. Brink, called the Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa “outrageous,” writing, “Russia strikes the port city of Odesa less than 24 hours after signing an agreement to allow shipments of agricultural exports. The Kremlin continues to weaponize food. Russia must be held to account.”.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Saturday that Russia claimed it had “nothing to do” with the strikes.

“It really concerned us that such an event happened after we signed the deal on grain shipments. We are disturbed as well. But we continue to fulfill our responsibilities about this agreement, and we also expressed in our meetings that we are in favor of the parties to continue their cooperation here calmly and patiently,” said Akar.

Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was hit with up to 13 Russian cruise missiles, causing significant damage, killing three and wounding nine. The attack was a joint operation between the Russian air force and navy, with five Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and eight Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet hitting the region. Cruise missiles also slammed into the railroad facilities at Ukrzaliznytsia. An electrical substation was also targeted, knocking out electrical power in parts of the oblast capital of Kropyvnytskyi.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
  2. Ground offensives by Russian forces have become fewer and smaller a week after the “operational pause” was declared over.
  3. It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.

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Russia-Ukraine War becomes a frozen front – July 22, 2022 Ukraine update

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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,067 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are well entrenched on the ridges west of the plant, enabling effective artillery fire in the valley that has to be crossed to reach Verkhnokamyanske.

Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor, reported that artillery fire has intensified, and Russian forces are throwing their tank reserves into battle in an attempt to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, likely from Zolotarivka, and were unsuccessful.

Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka. The platoon-sized units suffered heavy losses and retreated to previously established defensive lines.

Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.

Bakhmut – Near Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to advance on Ukrainian positions in Stryapivka, supported by the Russian air force. They were unsuccessful.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, but Russian attacks have been getting smaller over the last two weeks. Under-staffed platoons attempted to advance on Vershyna and the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant from Myronivka. Neither attack was successful and Russian forces suffered heavy losses.

A second advance attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of Novoluhanske and Dolomitne and was also unsuccessful, with poorly trained and under-staffed platoons suffering heavy losses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – In Kherson, Russian forces are attempting to stop the flow of Ukrainian forces over the Inhulets River and have been unsuccessful. Russian forces advanced from Mala Seidemynukha toward Andriivka and were pushed back.

Russian forces also advanced from Davydiv Brid toward Bilohirka and were unsuccessful.

There are social media reports that Russian forces are encircled in Vysokopillya. Our team is surprised there is still a sizeable Russian presence in the settlement. We had determined that continued occupation was untenable in late June due. However, we don’t see how other analysts concluded that there is an encirclement of Russian troops in Vysokopillya.

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Dnipropetrovsk – Nikopol was attacked with rockets fired by MLRS for the fourth day in a row. Up to 100 rockets hit the city, causing widespread damage and killing one person. Eleven homes were damaged, along with the railroad line that serves the city, natural gas, and water lines.

Kharkiv – Russian troops attempted to advance on Pytomnyk for the second day in a row. The advance was unsuccessful. The settlements of Udy, Zolochiv, Slatyne, Ruska Lozova, Petrivka, Dementiivka, Velyka Babka, and Rubizhne [Kharkiv] were hit by artillery.

Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.

Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.

Izyum – Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Bilopol, Znob-Novogorod, and Shalyginsk were hit by mortar fire and self-propelled grenades from Russian forces firing from across the international border. There were no injuries or damage reported.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine. The lack of combat activity is significant.
  2. Russian forces have been incapable of holding territorial gains made after July 4 and are consistently pushed back within one to seven days of making any new advances.
  3. It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.

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Renewed Russian offensive sputters – July 21, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,066 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – There was no change in territorial control in the Luhansk oblast. Bilhorivka and Zolotarivka remain contested.

Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces shelled Bilohorivka for hours, hit the town with missiles, and launched an air strike. He stated that the rate of artillery fire increased significantly compared to the previous day.

Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, likely from Zolotarivka, and were unsuccessful.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Spirne and were unsuccessful. The Headquarters of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic militia reported that elements of the 1st Army Corps had captured Berestove, located on the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway.

Bakhmut – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Bakhmut. The settlements of Bakhmut, Soledar, Vesela Dolyna, Yakovlivka, and Pokrovske were shelled. The Russian air force launched air strikes on Pokrovske.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in the area of the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported continued fighting in the bulge. The Russian air force attacked the settlement of Kodema.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Novoselivka Druha, Novomykhailivka and continued to fight in the contested settlement of Mykilske. None of the advances were successful. Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement of Mykilske, where fighting continues.

Otherwise, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – The damage to the Russian-controlled Antonovskiy Bridge over the Dnipro River is significant and will impact commercial and military traffic. Volodymyr Saldo, the self-proclaimed head of the administration of the Russian-occupied Kherson region, said that the bridge would only be open to car traffic due to the damage and to start repairs. Trucks and freight will have to cross the Dnipro River at the only remaining Russian-controlled bridge at the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant, about 45 kilometers east. Russian military supplies moving overland now have to take a 140-kilometer detour.

Rockets fired from HIMARS hit a Russian facility in Skadovsk on the Black Sea. It is unclear what the target was, but a large fire was burning after the strike.

Operational Command South reported that Russian forces attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of Andriivka and Lozove and were unsuccessful, indicating that Ukrainian troops had liberated Andriivka in the past three to ten days.

Mykolaiv – Mykolaiv Mayor Oleksandr Sienkovych reported that the city was hit by seven S-300 surface-to-air missiles being used as a surface-to-surface weapon. One missile hit a gas pipeline near a service station, and there was one casualty.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that a small group of Russian troops attempted to advance on Pytomnyk, north of Kharkiv. The advance was unsuccessful. The settlements of Stary Saltiv, Petrivka, Ruska Tyshki, Dementiivka, and Tsyrkuny were hit by artillery.

Russian forces destroyed a mosque in Kharkiv during a rocket attack on July 20. There weren’t any casualties, but the mosque was heavily damaged.

Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that a Russian rocket hit a bus stop in Saltivka, killing three people.

About 80 kilometers southeast of Kharkiv, the settlement of Rtyshchivka was hit by a Russian air strike. Further north, the town of Pechenihy was hit by artillery.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, southeast of Izyum and were unsuccessful. The settlements of Dibrovne, Krasnopillya, Chepil, and Adamivka were hit by artillery fire. Russian forces also shelled Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyhyne was attacked by Grad rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). One person was injured in the attack. The settlements of Esman, Bilopolska, and Novoslobidska were attacked by artillery and mortars.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine, with combat power severely degraded after the battles for Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Hirske-Zolote.
  2. Since July 4, Russian forces have made little progress in the Donbas while losing ground north of Slovyansk and in the Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.
  3. Russian forces to the west of the Dnipro River are connected by two bridges – one for rail and one for road traffic – the intact bridge over the river is not a viable target due to the risk of damaging the hydroelectric dam, but there are other locations where interdiction is possible.

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Ukraine strikes Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson again – July 20, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 21 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,065 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces still have not fully secured the oblast. Fighting for control of Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka continues.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Verkhnokamyanske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and the southern edge of Zolotarivka, from the T-1302 Highway, north of the railroad yard. Fighting in eastern Verkhnokamyanske continued, with Russian and Ukrainian sources calling it intense. Russian forces hit Ukrainian positions with artillery, rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and air strikes.

In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Zolotarivka area toward Verknokamyanske, Serebryanka, and Bilhorivka and were unsuccessful. Russian armor remains pinned at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Russian forces continue to attempt to push Ukraine out of Bilohorivka after its partial liberation on July 13 and have not been successful. Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces attacked Bilohorivka overnight in a rare night offensive and were unsuccessful.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, with Haidai reporting that the reconnaissance in force group advanced from Zolotarivka. The advance was unsuccessful and suffered heavy losses.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Spirne and Ivano-Darivka and were unsuccessful. To the south, Russian forces attempted to advance on Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful.

In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Bakhmut – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Bakhmut. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion with Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group dug in on the southern edge of Pokrovske.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in the area of the power plant. Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Ukrainian forces launched a night attack from the plant in an unspecified direction and were unsuccessful. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on the power plant and were also unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

The settlement of Hulyaipole was shelled by Russian forces causing major damage in the downtown region. The city has been shelled almost daily since March.

Kherson – Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge a second time with a barrage of 12 rocket fired from NATO-provided HIMARS, hitting the critical Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line) 11 times. Occupation leaders described the condition of the bridge as “poor.” Russian state media reported extensive damage to a concentrated area of the bridge deck, with several holes through the structure. Cars were still able to pass, but officials announced the bridge would be close to traffic for several days.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims five missiles were fired and four were impacted, but several videos showed three explosions on and just adjacent to the bridge. The bridge is the primary road connection across the Dnipro River, connecting the western and eastern regions of the Kherson oblast. The bridge was moderately damaged in the attack but is likely still serviceable.

A Russian Su-35 fighter plane was shot down near Nova Kakhovka. Initially, it was reported Ukraine shot down the aircraft near Lyubymivka by Nova Kakhovka. Russian social media accounts claimed it was a friendly fire incident. The Ukrainian Air Forces confirmed overnight a surface-to-air missile shot down the aircraft. The pilot was able to eject and landed in Russian-controlled territory.

Operational Command South reported that Russian positions in Snihurivka were hit by an air strike, destroying an ammunition depot.

Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Ukraine had liberated Arkhanhelske along the east bank of the Inhulets River. Ukrainian government officials have been reluctant to release detailed information on combat operations to protect operational security.

Fighting continued near Snihurivka, with the Ukrainian air force attacking Russian positions.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian forces fired Grad rockets from MLRS into civilian areas of Nikopol. More than 30 rockets hit houses and apartments, killing two and wounding nine. Ukrainian forces apparently retaliated by launching two “kamikaze” drones at Russian positions within the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. There were reports that two Russian soldiers were in the drone attack, and smoke was seen rising from near the compound.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that a small group of Russian troops attempted to advance on Udy, northwest of Kharkiv. The platoon size group suffered heavy losses and retreated across the international border.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrovne, Novomykolaivka, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Dolyna, Chepil, Semylanne, Hrushuvakha, Adamivka, Barvinkove, Bohorodychne, Arkhanhelivka, and Nova Dmytrivka.

A Russian missile killed one person when it hit the center of Kramatorsk and badly damaged an apartment building.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok.

Sumy – The settlements of Mykolaiv [Sumy], Bilopolska, Novoslobidska, Khotynska, and Esman was shelled by Russian forces from across the international border.

Odesa – Black Sea – A warehouse filled with debris in the port of Odesa was hit by a Russian Kh-59 cruise missile fired by a Su-35 aircraft over the Black Sea. The warehouse was a total loss, but there were no injuries. Russian state media claimed the warehouse was an ammunition depot for NATO-provided weapons and munitions, but there were no secondary explosions, and the fire, which sent clouds of black smoke over the city, was quickly extinguished.

Daily Assessment

  1. It has been four days since the operational pause “ended,” and Russian forces have been unable to gain territory.
  2. There are growing questions on how much combat strength Russian forces have left in Ukraine, given the inability to muster attacks with groups larger than a company with adequate armor, artillery, and air support.
  3. While Russia is setting conditions to advance on Siversk, Ukraine is setting conditions for a broader counteroffensive in Kherson.

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Russian Su-34 shot down by ‘friendly fire’ – July 18, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,063 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui announced on July 15 that the operational pause by Russian forces was over. In the first 36 hours since the announcement, Ukraine had the quietest day on the battlefield since February 24. The Russia-Ukraine War is entering Phase 3, but it remains unclear what that will look like.

Luhansk – Russian troops remained pinned in Bilohorivka and the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Attempts to advance into Donetsk were thwarted in both directions.

Near Alchevsk, during a Ukrainian High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) attack, air defenses of the Luhansk People’s Republic accidentally targeted a Russian Su-34 generation 4.5 fighter aircraft, shooting the plane down. The airframe has been identified as number RF-95890, a Su-34M. The M variant is the most technologically advanced version of the Su-34. The pilot was able to eject, with Ukraine claiming they captured the pilot behind the line of conflict. The wreckage was still smoldering at sunrise.

Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces tried advancing “near” Hryhorivka and were unsuccessful. There was also a report of a probe toward Serebrianka, which was unsuccessful.

Additionally, there is continued fighting in the Spirne-Ivano-Daryivka area with no change in territorial control. Spirne remains a no man’s land.

Bakhmut – Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk Region Administrative and Military Head, reported that the next Russian objective is Bakhmut. Russian forces shelled and fired rockets from MLRS at Soledar, Bakhmut, and the surrounding villages.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces attempted to improve their positions in Novoluhanske and advance on the Vuldhar Power Plant. Neither attack was successful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic attempted to advance on Marinka. Fighting continued overnight, but Ukrainian forces beat back the Russia-backed militia.

Ukraine claims to have hit a Russian ammunition depot in Mykilske with HIMARS rockets. The depot was stored with ammonium nitrate fertilizer, creating a large shockwave and clouds of telltale orange smoke.

Pro-Russian social media accounts were reporting Ukraine had liberated Solodoke, south of Donetsk city.

Kherson – Ukraine hit two Russian ammunition depots in Nova Kakhovka using NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Operational Command South of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the air force attacked “troop concentrations” never Davydiv Brid.

Dnipropetrovsk – The city of Nikopol was hit with over 60 rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) across the Dnipro. Civilians and civilian infrastructure were targeted. The Russian Ministry of Defense set up artillery and MLRS firing positions in Enerhodar at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, there were no ground attacks of significance from either belligerent. Russian forces had improved their position in Dementiivka on July 16, but were pushed back by Ukrainian territorial guard forces overnight.

Sumy – The settlements of Velikopysariv, Krasnopil, Khotyn, Bilopol, Shalygin, Novoslobid, Esman, and Seredino-Bud were shelled by artillery and rockets fired by MLRS from Russian positions across the international border. There were no reports of casualties.

Chernihiv – Twelve artillery shells hit the settlement of Snovsk in the Chernihiv oblast. There were no reports of injuries.

Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces made no attempts to advance on the line of conflict south of Izyum. Multiple reports indicated that Russian forces had lost control of Dibrovne.

Odesa – Black Sea – Serhiy Bratchuk, the adviser to the head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, reported that a majority of warships in the Black Sea Fleet had been relocated from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in Russia.

Beyond Ukraine – A Ukrainian An-12 cargo plane operated by the private company Meridian Air crashed in Greece. The plane had taken off from Serbia and was en route to Amman, Jordan, when it experienced a mid-air emergency. Witnesses said the plane caught fire and rapidly descended before crashing. All eight crew members were killed in the crash.

Daily Assessment

  1. It has been two days since the Kremlin announced the operational pause is over, and the operational tempo for ground combat remains low.
  2. Russian forces have increased the amount of artillery fire in the last 24 hours, but it remains far below the intensity of fire experienced in June 2022.
  3. We cannot confirm Governor Haidai’s statement that the next large offensive from Russian forces will be to secure Bakhmut. We believe that defending Kherson or securing Siversk will be the next major objective.

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All quiet on all the fronts – July 17, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,062 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui announced on July 15 that the operational pause by Russian forces was over. In the first 36 hours since the announcement, Ukraine had the quietest day on the battlefield since February 24. The Russia-Ukraine War is entering Phase 3, but it remains unclear what that will look like.

Luhansk – Multiple videos and reports from Russian state media confirmed that Russian troops have not been able to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and hold new territory. Russian forces shelled the ridge between the refinery and Verkhnokamyanske on July 15 – 16, while Russian armored vehicles have been unable to advance across the Luhansk-Donetsk border without facing heavy artillery fire.

Fighting for control of Zolotarivka continued, and Ukrainian forces continued to hold Bilohorivka.

NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) was used to strike a Russian antiaircraft battery station at the trolley barn in Alchevsk, Luhansk, and a Russian command base.

Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported their positions were shelled in Hryhorivka, and Russian forces performed aerial reconnaissance on Serebryanka. Despite reports of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatists, their forces have not taken either settlement or advanced into Siversk.

Russian forces continue to fight for control of Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka. Two small reconnaissance in force groups attempted to move into Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful in securing the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway.

Bakhmut – Russian forces shelled or fired rockets from MLRS at Soledar, Pokrovske, and Bakhmut.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka.

NATO-provided HIMARS rockets hit the Russian barracks in Lazurne, Kherson, on the coast of the Black Sea near Crimea.

Mykolaiv – Ten more missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv, likely S-300 antiaircraft missiles pressed into ground-to-ground service. There were reports of multiple fires but no additional information.

Sumy – The settlements of Hlukkhiv, Esman, Novoslobidske, Shalyhyne, Bilopillia, Khotin, and Krasnopillia were shelled by artillery and rockets fired by MLRS from Russian positions across the international border.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces made no attempts to advance on the line of conflict, relying on artillery fire and air strikes. It is the first time since April 17 that no attempted advances were reported.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Ukrainian forces were able to evacuate seven civilians from the Sviatohirsk Cave Monastery on the north bank of the Siverski Donets River. Up to 100 monks and 500 civilians that are pilgrims or those who sought sanctuary remain at the historic monastery.

Daily Assessment

  1. It remains unclear after the announcement that the operational pause is over what the Russian Ministry of Defense’s next move is – today was the quietest day since February 24.
  2. We believe the pause was too short and that Russian troops have not significantly restored combat power nor secured new gains in Luhansk.
  3. Pro-Russian accounts are now spinning the lack of progress along the Luhansk-Donetsk border to force Ukrainian troops to consolidate in Siversk and get them in a cauldron to be surrounded.

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