Tag Archives: bakhmut

National, Russia-Ukraine War

With Battlefront Frozen, Russia Terrorizes Civilians – July 15, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,060 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – We continue to assess Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka in the Luhansk oblast as contested. Neither belligerent has provided definitive proof they control either settlement.

A Russian ammunition depot in Kadiivka, Luhansk, was hit by High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) munitions. Multiple secondary explosions were recorded on video, with Grad or Smerch rockets launching from all directions. Thermite munitions were also launched from the burning depot, raining back down on the surrounding area.

Northeast Donetsk – Pro-Kremlin sources dismissed claims that the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic had advanced into and captured Siversk, calling the reports “premature.” The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that troop positions in Hryhorivka were shelled by Russian forces with artillery and rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

The July 13 Russian offensive on Verkhnokamyanske was costly, forcing Russian troops to pull back to reconsolidate units.

West of Popasna, Russian forces made a small advance on Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful. The settlements of Berestove and Vesele were also shelled. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed that Russian troops had been pushed out of Spirne.

The update posted on Telegram by FSB Colonel and war criminal Igor Girkin appears to be the most accurate assessment of current Russian combat operations. Russian forces are exhausted, lacking human capital and equipment, and are still in an operational pause.

Bakhmut – Russian forces shelled Pokrovske, Vesela Dolyna, Bakhmut, and Chasiv Yar to set conditions for a future offensive. The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar remained at 48.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces attempt to advance on Kodema and Vershyna while shelling Luhanske, Zaitseve, and the Vuldehar Power Plant. None of the advances were successful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Southwest of Horlivka, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic were partially successful in advancing into Kamyanka but, by sunset, had been pushed back to the original line of conflict.

Ukraine has claimed that high-ranking Russian commanders were killed in targeted HIMARS attacks over the past week. Russian state media reported that two deputy commanders of the Russian 106th Airborne Division, Colonels Sergei Kuzminov and Andrey Vasiliev, were killed on July 9.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Mariupol – In Russia-occupied Mariupol, city streets and yards remain littered with unexploded ordnance and landmines. Local residents report that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Chechen proxy forces stopped clearing mines and explosives from civilian areas.

Insurgents in Mariupol set the Satelit Factory on fire. Resistance leaders said, “It’s better to let it burn than to let the Russians loot and steal.”

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

There are strong indications that Ukrainian forces have started to advance south of Kyselivka.

Ukrainian Special Operation Forces raided a Russian POW camp at an undisclosed location in the Kherson oblast, rescuing Ukrainian POWs and civilian captives in the raid.

Mykolaiv – Ten Russian cruise missiles slammed into two universities in Mykolaiv. After one of the strikes, a video showed no additional fires, secondary explosions, military vehicles, or troop presence.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile destroyed a school in Synelnykove. There were reports of casualties, but no additional information was given.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Sumy – Russian forces stepped up cross-border attacks in the Sumy oblast, striking eight Ukrainian settlements. The towns of Myropil, Yunakivka, Esman, Nova Sloboda, Khotin, Shostka, Krasnopillia, and Velyka Pysarivka were attacked by artillery, mortars, MLRS, and small arms fire. There was no information on casualties.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Kurlka by Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SOF). There were no other territorial changes, with Russian forces once again attempting to secure the contested settlement of Bohorodychne. Ukrainian SOF, small units, and artillery continue to interdict Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) on the western front of the Izyum axis.

Vinnytsia – The death toll in Vinnytsia from the Russian cruise missile attack remained at 23, with over 60 wounded. Nine people remain missing.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense is systematically terrorizing Ukraine’s civilian population, purposely targeting non-military targets and timing strikes in daytime hours to maximize casualties.
  2. The Kremlin, LNR leaders, and Pro-Russian accounts have significantly overstated Russian gains over the last week, which have been minor.
  3. Ukraine continues to progress steadily in the Kherson oblast advancing along the entire axis, where Russian forces continue to struggle to hold defensive positions.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Cruise Missile Attack on Vinnytsia Kills 22, Wounds 90 – July 14, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 20 weeks since the Russian-Ukrainian War began and 3,059 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

BREAKING NEWS: At least 22 people are dead and 90 wounded, 50 critically, after four Russian cruise missiles struck the western Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia on Thursday morning, destroying an office building complex and at least one building of a hospital.

The missile crashed into the city center at 11:00 AM while it was full of office workers and shoppers. Three missiles struck a complex of office buildings and a fourth hit a medical center. Debris set cars in a parking lot on fire, spreading to over 50 vehicles. Vinnytsia is 120 kilometers north of Moldova in western Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi addressed his nation, calling the strike a terrorist attack.

“Vinnytsia – a missile attack on the city center,” Zelenskyy started. “There are wounded and dead, among them a small child. Every day, Russia destroys the civilian population, kills Ukrainian children, and directs rockets at civilian [infrastructure]. Where there is nothing military. What is this, How is it not an open act of terrorism? Inhumans. A murderous country. A terrorist country.”

Vinnytsia Region Administrative and Military Governor Serhii Borzov reported that eight missiles were fired in the direction of the city. Air defenses were able to shoot down four.

https://malcontentment.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/293726709_420058033510548_283581556363458589_n.mp4
July 14, 2022 – rescuers search for survivors after a Russian cruise missile attack in the center of Vinnytsia, Ukraine

The Office of the Prosecutor General announced that a criminal investigation had been opened for “violation of the laws and customs of war.”

July 14, 2022 – a hospital building in Vinnytsia, Ukraine lies in ruins after taking a direct hit from a Russian cruise missile – the attack on the city killed at least 22 and wounded 90

Luhansk – To the best of our capabilities to assess the situation, we believe that Ukraine maintains a presence in Bilohorivka [Luhansk], and Hryhorivka is contested.

Video from Ukrainian forces showed Russian positions east of Bilhorivka [Luhansk] being attacked by 220mm rockets fired by an Urgan Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). There was a significant secondary explosion. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian positions in Hryhorivka were shelled by Russian artillery.

Northeast Donetsk – The Assistant Minister of the Interior of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, claimed that Russia-backed LNR separatists had captured Siversk.

FSB Colonel and war criminal Igor Girkin denied Kiselev’s claim, writing, that there aren’t any ongoing offensives, which aligned with reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“Nothing new at the frontline. The operational pause continues,” Girkin wrote. “Which does not exclude the artillery and missile strike exchanges.”

Russian forces interdicted the Bakhmut-Siversk Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line), firing artillery and rockets at Mykolaivka and Siversk.

Fighting continued in Verkhnyokamyanske and Ivano-Daryivka, with no changes in territorial control. Late on July 13, Haidai indicated the situation had “deteriorated,” and heavy fighting erupted in Verkhnyokamyanske.

Russian forces shelled Kryvya Luka, Railhorodok, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], and Yakovlivka, west of Popasana.

Bakhmut – Russia Imperial Legion terrorists attached to the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group pushed into Pokrovske. The reconnaissance in force group was unsuccessful and suffered heavy losses.

A small group of Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakolivka and were unsuccessful. Another group of up to two platoons tried to advance on Vesela Dolyna and Vershyna, but both failed.

Russian forces continued the systematic artillery attacks in the Bakhmut area, likely setting conditions for a future offensive. Pidhorodne, Opytne, Zaitseve, Kodema, and the Vuldehar Power Plant were shelled.

The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar has climbed to 48. Nine people have been found alive in the rubble. Search and rescue operations continue.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian positions in Horlivka were hit by artillery or rockets in a massive barrage on the city.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces struck the Russian-controlled city of Nova Kakhovka for a third time, destroying a large ammunition depot at the Sokol factory.

In the rest of Kherson, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Izyum – Russian forces were able to advance onto Kurulka from Dibrovne after more than a month of attempts to move forward. There was a report in the morning that the reconnaissance in force group had been pushed back north out of the settlement.

Odesa – Black Sea – The Russian Air Force attempted to bomb Snake Island with two Su-27 aircraft. The bombs landed in the ocean and did not strike the unoccupied island. The air strike comes just as Ukrainian grain started to move again through the Danube-Black Sea Canal, and more than 90 civilian bulk carriers await at anchor, some as close as 20 kilometers from the island.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they left Snake Island on June 30, as a gesture of “goodwill” to permit Ukrainian grain to start moving from western ports.

Daily Assessment

  1. There is significant confusion on the status of Siversk and if a Russian offensive is ongoing to capture the transit and supply hub.
  2. Russian artillery continues to methodically targets potential routes to advance on Bakhmut and Slovyansk but still lacks the combat power to launch significant operations.
  3. Overall the front remains frozen after President Putin announced the operational pause.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russian Forces Make Small Gains – July 13, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,057 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – Pro-Russian social media accounts shared a video of a TOS-1 thermobaric rocket attack against Ukrainian positions in Zolotarivka, which is in Luhansk. Based on the current combat video by Russian sources, the settlement of Zolotarivka is contested.

Ukraine hit a large ammunition depot in Luhansk city using the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). There was a major fire and multiple secondary explosions, including rockets. Pro-Russian unaffiliated journalist Starshe Eddy wrote, “Judging by the distant peals of explosions, something did fly to Lugansk. At first, the work of the air defense was…audible. Now the [booms] of detonation,” indicating that Russian air defense failed to intercept the rockets.

Northeast Donetsk – The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured the settlement of Hryhorivka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention the town in their report. Neither did Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor. The advance on Hryhorivka would indicate that Bilohorivka [Luhansk] was captured.

Additionally, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported air strikes against Ukrainian positions in Serebryanka, west of Hryhorivka.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Sprine and Ivano-Daryivka with air support from the Russian air force. The advance was unsuccessful, and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the retreat was “chaotic.”

Bakhmut – Russian forces launched a massive Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and artillery attack on Bakhmut, beginning to systematically destroy the infrastructure in the city. There were unconfirmed reports of fighting near Soledar in the settlements of Nova Kamyanka and Stryapivka.

The death toll from the Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) strike on Chasiv Yar has climbed to 45. Nine people have been found alive in the rubble.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Vershyna and Novoluhanske, but there wasn’t ground fighting.

Slovyansk – Kramatrosk – Russian forces shelled Pryshyb, Mayaky, Kryva Luka, and Raihorodok, and are likely setting conditions for a future offensive on the cities turned fortresses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – An ammunition depot in Petrovskyi District of Donetsk at the Donetsk Transport Equipment Plant was hit by artillery. There were multiple secondary explosions as black smoke rose across the city.

RIA-Melitopol reported explosions and gunfire at a new Russian base in Myrne, Zaporizhia, north of the city of Melitopol. Ukrainian partisans reported that Russian forces moved the surviving equipment to the region after the airbase at Melitopol was destroyed by HIMARS rockets last week.

Otherwise, fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control or reports of significant fighting.

South Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an artillery strike destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Charivne. The settlement is on the Nova Kakhovka-Davydiv Brid T-2207 Highway GLOC.

Mykolaiv – Russian forces used S-300 antiaircraft missiles in the July 11 missile strike on Mykolaiv. Over 20 missiles struck the city, wounding 12. The use of antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role indicates that Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into Kherson could be compromised. Alternatively, Russia may be unable to get the electronic parts required to build new S-300 missiles capable of providing antiaircraft capabilities.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, fighting was limited to Dementiivka, north of Kharkiv city. There was no change in territorial control.

Russian forces hit the Industrial District of Kharkiv city with rockets fired from MLRS, injuring four people.

Missiles hit the industrial cities of Khrestyshche and Kostyantynivka. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed a warehouse full of recently delivered M777A2 155mm howitzers.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt offensive operations and relied on artillery, MLRS, and tank fire. The settlements of Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Barvinkove, Nikopol, Husarivka, Adamivka, Velyka Komyshuvakha, and Nova Dmytrivka were struck.

For the second day in a row, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian positions in Sulihivka were attacked. The settlement is believed to be under Russian control but is located on the line of conflict, which is very porous in this region. A video from July 9 shows Russian artillery and troops destroying four tanks and ground fighting east of Sulihivka.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukraine reopened the Danube-Black Sea Canal and did an emergency restoration to an unused Soviet-era river port to restart grain exports. The first 16 cargo ships have made their way into the canal, with up to 90 additional bulk carriers waiting their turn in the Black Sea. The port at Sulin can only accommodate four ships a day, with officials working to double the capacity.

Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Yuriy Vaskov said that by mid-August, the port would be capable of exporting 500,000 tons of grain a month.

Beyond Ukraine – Self-proclaimed Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko fired Major General Alexander Shkirenko. He was the Head of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. No reason was given for his termination, nor was a replacement officer announced.

Daily Assessment

  1. The operational pause continues and likely will for weeks. Russia continues to suffer a serious disadvantage in the number of trained light infantry troops available.
  2. Russian artillery methodically targets potential routes to advance on Bakhmut and Slovyansk but still lacks the combat power to launch significant operations.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
  4. We maintain that the risk of Belarus entering the war is extremely low.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ammunition Depot Destroyed in Nova Kakhovka – July 12, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,056 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

There were minimal ground combat operations through Ukraine today as the Russian operational pause continues. There weren’t any new territorial gains or losses that weren’t previously noted.

Luhansk – Russian Federation Armed Forces shelled Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka, indicating the claim from self-proclaimed Assistant Minister of the Interior for the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, that both settlements were under Russian control was false. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Head, reported that fighting continued in Bilohorkiva.

Northeast Donetsk – Neither belligerent reported significant fighting along the T-1302 Highway east of Siversk or in the Bakhmut region. Russian forces shelled the settlements of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Serebryanka, Siversk, Sprine, Ivan-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Zvanivka.

Bakhmut – There wasn’t significant fighting near Bakhmut or in the Svitlodarsk bulge.

The search for victims of the Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) attack on Chasiv Yar continued. Ukrainian officials have confirmed that 33 people have died in the Russian attack on two five-story apartment buildings on July 9. The attack on Chasiv Yar is the worst loss of civilian life since the April 8 missile attack at a Kramatorsk railroad station that left 59 dead.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Marinka and were unsuccessful.

Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast. The recently liberated settlement of Mali Shcerbaky in Zaporizhia has been shattered by three months of fighting.

Kherson – Multiple reports indicate that on July 9, Ukrainian forces destroyed a key command post in Russian-controlled Nova Kakhovka using NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) munitions. There are unsubstantiated claims of up to 12 military officers killed between the ranks of Lieutenant Colonel to Major General.

Ukrainian forces destroyed a major ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka on July 11. There were multiple secondary explosions near the hydroelectric plant and dam on the Dnipro River. The rebuke from Russian bloggers and unaffiliated RIA-approved journalists was swift.

Blogger Dimitriyen posted on their Telegram channel, “I often hear people surprised by the inability of the Russian command to adapt to new challenges – high-precision weapons or long-range artillery systems. It is necessary, for example, to disperse the equipment over different forests, move headquarters deep into the territory, and place ammunition in different locations. But that doesn’t happen. Why?”

Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery, rockets, and airstrikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykolaiv] to Osokorivka.

Mykolaiv – At least 20 missiles hit Mykolaiv in the heaviest barrage against the city since the start of the war. There was no immediate information on targets or casualties.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian forces struck the city of Radushne with three cruise missiles. Pro-Russian accounts claim that an ammunition depot was destroyed, but videos from the area did not show any secondary explosions.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian artillery battery and ammunition depot adjacent to the school in Hoptivka, near the Russian border.

Russian SRBMs and MLRS rockets hit Kharkiv and its northern suburbs through the night, leaving five dead and 31 wounded.

Izyum – Russian forces made another piecemeal assault on Krasnopillya, which was unsuccessful. Artillery and rocket fire was limited compared to yesterday, targeting Zakitne, Dolyna, Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Adamivka, and Kurulka.

Daily Assessment

  1. Frustration over the success of NATO-provided 155mm towed and self-propelled artillery, M270 Guided MLRS, and M-142 HIMARS is boiling over in Russian-controlled areas, dividing the online community over how robust Russian military capabilities are.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense is responding to the ongoing losses by targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Death Toll Climbs to 26 in Chasiv Yar – July 11, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,055 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

There were minimal ground combat operations through Ukraine today as the Russian operational pause continues.

Lysychansk – Severodonetsk – There are claims that Russian forces captured the settlement of Hryhorivka on the Luhansk-Donetsk border and had advanced to the edge of Serebrianka. The only source for this claim is the self-proclaimed Assistant Minister of the Interior for the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, in a Russian state media report on TASS.

“Our units took the settlement of Hryhorivka. There was a very large fortified area, but our units took it,” Kiselev said.

Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai reported that “battles continue in Bilohorivka,” later reporting that Russian forces “ran several times” from Bilohorivka but did not report the settlement was captured.

Haidai also reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatist militia started forced conscription in Severodoentsk, with recently “liberated” Pro-Russian residents already being sent to the front lines.

Northeast Donetsk – Fighting continued on the eastern edge of Verhhnokamyanske. On July 9, Pro-Russian accounts claimed their forces had occupied Spirne, approximately 10 kilometers from the Ukrainian stronghold of Siversk. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention Sprine in their July 10 report indicating the settlement is likely under Russian control.

Bakhmut – The death toll in Chasiv Yar climbed to 26 after three Russian Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck two five-story apartment buildings at dusk on July 9. A video showed the third missile arriving several minutes after the first volley, as rescuers were arriving and dazed residents were leaving the buildings. Launching a second strike shortly after the first is called a “double-tap” and is meant to maximize casualties.

Ukrainian President Voldoymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack in a national address.

“After such strikes, they will not be able to say they did not know something or did not understand something.”

“Punishment is inevitable for every Russian murderer. Absolutely everyone. Just as for the Nazis.”

“And they should not expect that their state will protect them. Russia will be the first to abandon them when political circumstances change.”

East, and southeast of Bakhmut, Russian troops did not attempt any advances. The settlements of Kurdyumivka and Vershyna were shelled. Fighting continued east of Vesela Dolyna.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Pro-Russian bloggers, unaffiliated journalists, and former military leaders vocally complained about the now constant shelling and High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacks across the Donbas.

The former commander of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Russian FSB Colonel Igor “Strelikov” Girkin wrote on Telegram, “In the past 5-7 days over ten large artillery and other munitions stockpiles were hit, several oil depots, around ten command points and roughly as many personnel locations in our near and far rears. In addition to several air defense and artillery positions. This resulted in large [emphasis, Girkin’s]losses in personnel and equipment.”

He ended with, “When will the Russian Federation Armed Forces start fighting with full force?”

Girkin’s assessment was echoed by other influencers and leaders across social media networks, adding tension to an already deteriorating relationship between the Kremlin and frontline war reporters.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance from Novoselivaka Druha and improve tactical positions north of Avdiivka. They were unsuccessful.

Otherwise, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – President Zelenskyy ordered the Ukrainian military to re-establish control over “coastal regions” in southern Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, told The Times of London, “We understand that, politically, it’s very necessary for our country. The president has given the order to the supreme military chief to draw up plans. After that, the general staff are doing their homework and say to achieve this goal, we need XYZ.”

Yurii Sobolevskyi, First Deputy Chairman of the Kherson Oblast Council, told civilians in the occupied regions to evacuate or prepare for coming hostilities. “Our people need to leave,” he warned.

“Those who can’t do it…should prepare for the fact that shelter [from artillery, bombs, etc.] will be needed again. It is necessary to prepare a supply of water and…food in order to survive the offensive of our troops. We understand that our guys will work as carefully and surgically as possible to save every life, but war is war.”

Russian occupying forces are not making it easy. A bus ticket to Zaporizhia is 6,000 hryvnia/roubles. If a person wants to drive their car, there are a lot of challenges. An evacuee and their family need to have original passports, all required documents, no tattoos that could be connected to any pro-Ukrainian ideals or prior military service, phones that are wiped clean, and nothing that causes suspicion at any checkpoint. Additionally, they need proof of ownership for the car or power of attorney to prove they are allowed to take it out of Kherson. Ukrainian forces struck Russian barracks in the critical transit and logistics hub of Nova Kahkovka. It is common to have to bribe checkpoint guards 5,000 to 10,000 hryvnia/roubles to pass.

Ukrainian forces struck Russian barracks in the critical transit and logistics hub of Nova Kahkovka. There were unconfirmed reports of Russian casualties.

Kharkiv – There was no change in the line of conflict northwest and north of Kharkiv, and neither belligerent engaged in fighting. A Russian Iskander-M missile hit a six-story apartment building in the Osnovianskyi District of Kharkiv, causing significant damage. Two other missiles hit the city, destroying a school and a warehouse.

Izyum – Russian forces fired artillery and used MLRS to attack Ukrainian positions across a broad area west and south of Izyum, but did not attempt to make any advances.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukrainian capabilities to strike targets accurately well beyond the line of conflict are creating unrest among the Pro-Russian community and lowering morale.
  2. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.
  3. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to target civilians using precision weapons increasingly in short supply.
  4. It is unclear if Ukraine will take the initiative in the immediate future – statements from Ukrainian officials indicate that the effort to retake southern Ukraine is in the planning stages.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 9, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,053 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 8, there was only a minor territorial change related to liberation or capture in Ukraine. There weren’t major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, missile, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. To the west of the oil refinery, Ukrainians mounted a furious counterattack in Verkhnokamyanske and pushed Russian forces back to the Luhansk-Donetsk border.

Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported, “So far, no operational pause announced by the enemy has been observed. [Russia] attacks and bombards our lands with the same intensity as before.”

Northeast Donetsk – Siversk – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged intense artillery fire. Russian forces shelled Zaitseve, Vershyna, Yakolivka, and Ivano-Darivka. The Russian air force attacked Spirne, with Ukrainian forces holding the Russian ground assault at the eastern edge of the settlement.

Bakhmut – No reliable source reported any major offensive or counteroffensive operations around Lyman, Siversk, Soledar, or Bakhmut. Russian forces tried to advance on Hrybhorivka, but the line of conflict remained frozen.

Pro-Russian social media accounts reported Ukrainian forces shelled Klynove, preventing terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion working with Private Military Company Wagner Group from advancing.

The most intense fighting was in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant. Russian forces tried to advance from Dolomitne, Novoluhaske, and Luhanske. They were unsuccessful in all areas.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets hit an ammunition depot just north of Russia-controlled Kadiivka. There have been numerous secondary explosions. The Kirovs’kyi fuel depot, hit by artillery or HIMARS-delivered rockets on July 7, continued to burn. Precision munitions hit another weapons facility in the Kalininskyi District of Donetsk. Secondary explosions indicate the target was an ammunition depot.

Kherson – Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine called for civilians in the occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to evacuate by all possible means.

“We must look for an opportunity to leave because our Armed Forces will [be liberating]. It will be a huge fight. I do not want to scare anyone – everyone understands everything anyway.”

In Kherson city, Explosions and fire from the ammunition depot and heavy weapons field service area Ukraine attacked on July 7, continued. Ukrainian forces destroyed another ammunition depot northeast of the water treatment plant in Kherson, on the border of Chornobaivka. There are multiple secondary explosions.

Russian forces attacked the Ukrainian bridgehead at Velyke Artakove along the Inhulets River and were unsuccessful in driving Ukraine out and could not destroy the wet crossing.

In Nova Kakhovka, Kherson, the Deputy Head of the Nova Kakhovka police, was assassinated by insurgents. Serhii Tomko was shot in his car.

Mykolaiv – In the Mykolaiv Oblast, the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade destroyed five Russian T-80 tanks using Stugnas and captured some of the tank crews.

Kharkiv – Northwest and north of Kharkiv, there were artillery exchanges and skirmishes, with neither belligerent launching offensive operations.

Southeast of Kharkiv, there was renewed fighting by Chuhuiv, with Ukrainian forces shelling the settlement of Hrakove. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) suggested there was fighting in Zaliznychne.

Izyum – Southeast of Izyum, Russian forces attempted to capture Bohorodychne and lost nine Main Battle Tanks (MBT). Multiple geolocated videos visually confirmed the losses. Five Russian tanks blundered into a minefield. The other four were destroyed in an artillery barrage. Additionally, Ukrainian forces recaptured a T-72B MBT that was captured by Russian forces in April.

Russian forces shelled Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Chepil.

South of Kramatorsk, the town of Druzhkivka was hit by Russian cruise missiles.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok again.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, Russian troops are maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas with artillery, rockets, air strikes, and offensive operations along the Luhansk-Donetsk border.
  2. Ukraine is vigorously defending Siversk, indicating that the next battle will likely be for control of the transit hub.
  3. Ukrainian forces continue to dismantle Russian command and control, ammunition, and fuel depots far behind the line of conflict, which is sapping the morale of Pro-Russian civilians who didn’t anticipate combat operations this deep into separatist regions.
  4. Supply interdiction by Ukrainian forces is impacting Russian air defense capabilities in Kherson, where Ukrainian air assets have regained air dominance.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 8, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,052 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 7, no territorial changes related to liberation or capture were reported, nor major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In the Luhansk oblast, Ukrainian forces are contesting control of Bilohorivka to the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces destroyed the Russian wet crossing in Pryvillya between July 3 – 6.

Ukrainian officials and Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Luhansk is not under complete Russian control. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) showed hot spots east of Topolivka and in the vicinity of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

In Russian-occupied Severodonetsk, an insurgency has already formed. Threats against the Chechen occupying forces and “wanted posters” have started to appear in the city.

Northeast Donetsk – There were widespread artillery and MLRS barrages by Russian forces in northeast Donetsk, likely setting conditions for a future offensive.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance into Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were able to advance into the eastern part of Verknokamyanske. Russian forces were held at the eastern edge of Spirne. Further south, Russian forces tried to capture the settlement of Berestove and were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut – East of Bakhmut, Russian forces have started to advance on Vesela Dolyna.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Vershyna. There were unsuccessful. Ukraine maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant and pushed Russian forces back incrementally in Luhanske. Russian forces suffered significant losses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Ukrainian artillery or rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) struck the Kirovs’kyi fuel depot causing a massive fire. An ammunition depot was also destroyed near the George Dimitrov Number 112 school in Donetsk.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets destroyed an ammunition depot in Shakhtarsk, 60 kilometers east of Donetsk.

Near Russian-controlled Melitopol, insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Novobohdanivka and Troitske.

Kherson – In Kherson, the sound of small arms fire could be heard within the city. The Russian base at Chornobaivka was attacked with artillery, and Ukrainian officials reported that up to 25 vehicles were destroyed. The area targeted was a repair center for light to moderately damaged Russian military vehicles, contributing to the unusually high number of losses.

Russian forces are trying to slow the Ukrainian advance west and northwest of Kherson, targeting Ukrainian-controlled areas with artillery and rockets fired from MLRS.

North of Kherson city, NASA FIRMS suggests there is fighting west of Ukrainian-controlled Lozove in Andriivka. Ukrainian attack helicopters fired on Russian positions in Davydiv Brid. Russian forces used artillery and MLRS to interdict the Ukrainian GLOC on the T-2207 highway from Osokorivka. Additionally, Russian forces did reconnaissance in force with understaffed platoons, launching two raids on Dobryanka and one on Myroliubivka. None of the attempts were successful.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces made another spoiling attack on Sosnivka and Dementiivka. Neither attack was unsuccessful. Otherwise, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery fire along the frozen front.

At least two Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck the Nemyshlianskyi District of Kharkiv city, killing three civilians.

Izyum – There are reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed the recently repaired railroad bridge in Russian-controlled Kupyansk, north of Izyum. Southwest of Pisky-Radkivski, NATO-provided HIMARS systems were fired at a forward operating training base and staging area for Luhansk (LNR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) conscripts, Russian Federation Armed Forces contract volunteers, and terrorists with the Imperial Legion reporting to Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group.

Russian forces made another ad hoc advance into Bohorodychne, backed by intense artillery fire. They were unsuccessful and returned to previously held defensive lines on the edge of the settlement.

Sumy – In the Sumy oblast, Russian forces fired small arms into the settlement of Shalyhyne.

Odesa – Black Sea – On July 7 under cover of darkness, combat divers from Ukraine’s 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center used underwater vehicles to reach Snake Island. Special forces cleared sea and land mines, performed reconnaissance, and raised several Ukrainian flags. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Serhii Bratchuk of the Odesa Military Administration reported that the Russian air force fired two cruise missiles at Snake Island that struck the pier on the island’s north side at dawn.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles at the disabled Moldovian flagged tanker Millenial Spirit. The vessel was abandoned at anchor off the coast of Odesa after it was attacked on February 25. It is reported the ship is on fire but still afloat. The smoke was visible from Odesa.

Two more Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles hit grain warehouses near Odesa, holding 35 tons of cereals awaiting export.

Beyond Ukraine – Belarusian armed forces have extended ongoing military training exercises until July 16. In another provocation, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Major General Ruslan Kosygin, said that in the event of “Western provocations,” Belarusian forces will strike primarily on the infrastructure of Poland.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, artillery and MLRS are still being used along the line of conflict, and civilians and civilian infrastructure continue to be targeted.
  2. Combat activity in the last 12 hours raises questions on whether the reports of an operational pause are authentic.
  3. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that in Ukraine, “we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,” is saber-rattling from the Kremlin unless Putin intends to declare war formally and mobilize.
  4. It appears that Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk, given the resistance against Russian advances on the edges of the Luhansk oblast.
  5. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed two to four HIMARS units on July 6 were patently false, and the NATO-provided HIMARS attacked critical military targets in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts.
  6. Russian forces continue to lose ground in Kherson despite bringing in reserve troops and increasing artillery fire.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 29, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,043 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

The situation in the Severodonetsk salient is deteriorating as Russian forces increase pressure on the Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communications (GLOC – aka supply line), including the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway and the Siversk-Lysychansk route. The pattern of massive social media-driven disinformation campaigns from Pro-Russian accounts that occurred in Chernihiv, Mariupol, Sumy, and Severodonetsk is occurring again with the battle to control Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – Russian forces have pushed north from Bila Hora and have likely reached School Number 12 in the southeastern Lysychansk lowlands. Fighting continues at the rubber factory and the gelatin plant. Ukrainian forces have held the gelatin plant for five days.

Russian forces have secured Vovchyoyanka and reached the quarry at the northern tip of the settlement. Russian forces have advanced west from Vovchoyanka and are fighting at the southeast corner of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery but have not reached the T-1302 Highway GLOC.

There were reports, likely started by Igor Girkin, that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn entirely from Pryvillya and Russian forces had made a wet crossing at Kreminna. There is no information, videos, or pictures to support these claims. Given the continued Ukrainian resistance southwest, south, and southeast of Lysychansk, it is unlikely that a full-scale withdrawal has begun.

Russian forces crossed the T-1302 Highway west of Mykolaivka in an attempt to capture Spirne but were unsuccessful and pushed back to the original line of conflict.

Heavy shelling of the T-1302 Highway continued in Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk].

Bakhmut – Russian forces attempted to advance on Klynove, east of Bakhmut but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Bakhmut as well as Travneve.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Novoluhansk and Travneve on June 28. Both settlements were previously coded as under Russian control. There is fighting for control of the power plant on the northern edge of the Vuhlehirske Reservoir.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russian forces tried to recapture Pavilvka but were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were only artillery exchanges and skirmishes.

Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka north of Kharkiv city again but were unsuccessful.

Izyum – On the Izyum axis, Russian forces attacked Dovhalivka and Zalyman again. This does not represent a new offensive and is an attempt to distract and redirect Ukrainian military assets, which are interdicting the Russian M-03 GLOC through Vesele [Kharkiv 49°23’16.6″N 37°11’52.8″E]. Russian forces made piecemeal attacks on Mazanivka and Dolyna in an attempt to advance on Slovyansk. The understaffed units suffered heavy losses and were unsuccessful.

Odesa – Black Sea- Ukrainian forces “shelled” Snake Island, reporting that several Russian military assets, including a radar station and a Pansir antiaircraft system, were destroyed.

Russia continued to launch Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) and cruise missiles into Ukraine. Missile strikes hit Dnipro, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kremenchuk, and Kharkiv.

In all other regions in Ukraine, there was no change in territorial control and only positional battles.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 28, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine – MTN It has been 3,042 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-22 land-to-sea cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers at Kremenchuk, Poltava. Both missiles struck the Amstor Mall at 3:52 PM local time, with over 1,000 civilians inside. On Wednesday morning Ukrainian officials reported that 20 were dead, 59 were wounded, and 36 were still missing. Monday’s attack is the worst since Russia destroyed the railroad station in Kramatorsk on April 8 with cluster munitions delivered by Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM).

Lysychansk-Severodonetsk – Russian forces are holding a line that extends from Bila Hora to the southwestern corner of the rubber factory on the edge of Lysychansk. The line continues southwest to the gelatin factory, where fighting has been ongoing for four days.

Russian forces control most of Vovchoyarivka, with intense fighting continuing to control the settlement’s northern part. Russian forces have reached the southeastern edge of the abandoned Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery, which is adjacent to the T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line).

Bakhmut – Slovyansk – East of Bakhmut and north to the Popasna advance, Russian forces continue to try and take full control of the T-1302 Highway GLOC. Russian forces attempted to advance toward Klynove and Pokrovske but were unsuccessful. Russian forces likely reached the eastern edge of Klynove in heavy fighting but were pushed back to Midna Ruda. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Yakolivka but were unsuccessful.

Russian forces shelled Soledar, Bilohirivka [Donetsk], Berestove, Mykolaivka, Vesele [Dontesk, 48°44’38.5″N 38°08’56.5″E], and Spirne. Shelling of Berestove and Spirne was particularly fierce. Both settlements are west of the T-1302 Highway.

Two Russian ammunition depots south and east of Zymohirya [Luhansk] were attacked by NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) missiles. A coal mine was the closest target, 70 kilometers east of Bakhmut.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, there were indications that Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions in Semhirya, Dolomitne, and Myronivskyi.

South Donbas and Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russian forces attempted an offensive against Ukrainian forces in Shevchenko [Donetsk 47°43’45.5″N 37°08’29.4″E] and were unsuccessful. With reports of further advances, Ukrainian forces continue to hold recent territorial gains.

Kherson and Mykolaiv – In Kherson, the Ukrainian counteroffensive continued. Ukrainian troops advanced from Soldatske to the western edge of Myrolyubivka. Russian and Ukrainian forces continued intense fighting to control Stanislav, Kyselivka, and Snihurivka. The United States Department of Defense and Ukrainian officials have hinted that “several” settlements were liberated between June 25 – 26 in the Kherson Oblast but have requested that the details be temporarily withheld to support Operational Security (OPSEC).

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched an offensive to recapture Dementiivka, but they were unsuccessful. Skirmishes continued near Velyki Prokhody, Vesele [Kharkiv 50°10’26.3″N 36°31’59.5″E], and Rubizhne [Kharkiv]. Satellite data indicated that Ukrainian forces remain on the east bank of the Pechenihy Reservoir near Khotimlya.

Southeast of Chuhuiv, fighting continues along the M-03 and M-07 highways. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to request to honor OPSEC in this region. We will only share open-source intelligence in today’s report. Sattelite data indicated fighting in Russian-controlled Nova Hnylytsya.

Izyum – On the Izyum axis, Russian forces shelled Mospanove but made no advances on the settlement. Russian forces attacked Dovhalivka and Zalyman from Savyntsi, suffered significant losses, and were forced back. We have also been requested to honor OPSEC in this region and will only share information available through open-source intelligence.

Sattelite data indicated intense fighting north, northeast, and north of Spivakivka, almost to Prydonetske. Sattelite images also confirmed the destruction of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army command post in Izyum and the adjacent fuel depot.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Mazanivka from Dovehenke and were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Dolyna and Bohorodychne. Ukrainian artillery interdicted the GLOC from Oskil to Sosnove with artillery.

Other Key Developments – Kremlin-backed hacker group Killnet launched a widescale DDoS cyberattack on Lithuania, disabling key websites and computer systems. Killnet says they will continue to attack the Baltic nation until trade restrictions to Kalinigrad are lifted.

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