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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine liberates towns in Luhansk and Donetsk- July 16, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,061 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – On July 12, Ukrainian artillery shelled newly established Russian positions in Bilohorivka to set conditions for a counteroffensive. The next day, members of the Kraken Battalion staged a counteroffensive within the town itself. They engaged in intense house-to-house fighting that lasted for hours, forcing the Russian garrison to surrender. At least a squad-sized group of Russians were captured. The entire counteroffensive was documented.

Based on the verified raid of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka and Serebryanka in Donetsk are assessed as under Ukrainian control. Additionally, Zolotarivka remains contested. Ukrainian forces also destroyed Russian armored vehicles on the western edge of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on the hamlets of Nahirne and Bilohorivka [Donetsk], suffered significant losses, and returned to their defensive positions. The Ukrainian stronghold of Siversk was shelled, as well as Ivano-Darivka and Berestove.

Bakhmut – Russian artillery continued to concentrate on the towns around Bakhmut. Russian forces shelled Nova Kamyanka, Soledar, Pokrovske, Bakhmut, and Paraskoviivka.

The claims by the military officials of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic that Stryapivka and Nova Kamyanka were captured were false. An analysis of a propaganda video released by the republic claiming Stryapivka was captured revealed it was filmed in the town of Volodymyrivka. On Friday, Russian forces shelled and launched an air strike on Ukrainian positions in Nova Kamyanka.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces made several small attacks with platoon-sized groups toward Luhanske and Vershyna and were unsuccessful. Ukraine continues to control the Vuldehar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – South of Donetsk, Russian forces attempted to advance on Solodke, Volodymyrivka, and Pavlivka in the most significant offensive effort in weeks. The attacks were unsuccessful and Russian forces suffered significant losses at Pavlivka.

There are unconfirmed reports by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that a Russian Su-25 was shot down in the area of Orikhiv.

Kherson – In Kherson, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers launched six Kh-101 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea region at Dnipro. Four were intercepted, but two hit an “industrial enterprise” and the street of a civilian area. Three people were killed and at least 15 wounded in the daytime attack. One of the people killed was a city bus driver.

Kharkiv – there were no ground attacks of significance from either belligerent. A Russian cruise missile, likely a Kh-101 based on the size of the crater, missed its target and landed just outside of a school, causing moderate damage.

Sumy – The settlements of Shalyhyne, Hlukhiv, Seredyna-Buda, and Bilopillya was hit by mortar fire and artillery fired from positions within Russia. One person was killed and four wounded in Hlukhiv. Pro-Russian social media accounts claimed that Ukrainian forces fired counterbattery across the international border into the Russian settlements of Neslitsy and Dronovka.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Bohorodychne with Ukrainian forces advancing to the bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The Russian military has been blocked from advancing toward Slovyansk from the settlement, which has been shattered after almost two months of fighting.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Odesa – A Russian cruise missile struck a warehouse in Odesa, causing a major fire. There were no reports of casualties because the workers evacuated to a shelter when the air raid sirens went off. Thick black smoke rose above the city, but there weren’t any secondary explosions or indications that a munitions depot was hit.

Two Russian Su-24 aircraft bombed Snake Island in another attempt to destroy the equipment left behind during the June 30 retreat. At the mouth of the Danube River, 30 kilometers west, dozens of civilian bulk carrier ships are at anchor, waiting to load Ukrainian grain in Romania.

Kyiv – A Russian cruise missile was shot down in the Bilotserkivskyi District of Kyiv, with debris landing in Irpin. The warhead was located and defused, and there were no injuries.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to systematically terrorize Ukraine’s civilian population, using outdated munitions with low accuracy.
  2. While the Kherson axis has stabilized in the short term, the Izyum axis is becoming problematic for Russian forces due to supply interdiction and a continued heavy focus on the Donbas.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for the next Russian offensive.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 8, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,052 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 7, no territorial changes related to liberation or capture were reported, nor major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In the Luhansk oblast, Ukrainian forces are contesting control of Bilohorivka to the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces destroyed the Russian wet crossing in Pryvillya between July 3 – 6.

Ukrainian officials and Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Luhansk is not under complete Russian control. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) showed hot spots east of Topolivka and in the vicinity of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

In Russian-occupied Severodonetsk, an insurgency has already formed. Threats against the Chechen occupying forces and “wanted posters” have started to appear in the city.

Northeast Donetsk – There were widespread artillery and MLRS barrages by Russian forces in northeast Donetsk, likely setting conditions for a future offensive.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance into Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were able to advance into the eastern part of Verknokamyanske. Russian forces were held at the eastern edge of Spirne. Further south, Russian forces tried to capture the settlement of Berestove and were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut – East of Bakhmut, Russian forces have started to advance on Vesela Dolyna.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Vershyna. There were unsuccessful. Ukraine maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant and pushed Russian forces back incrementally in Luhanske. Russian forces suffered significant losses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Ukrainian artillery or rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) struck the Kirovs’kyi fuel depot causing a massive fire. An ammunition depot was also destroyed near the George Dimitrov Number 112 school in Donetsk.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets destroyed an ammunition depot in Shakhtarsk, 60 kilometers east of Donetsk.

Near Russian-controlled Melitopol, insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Novobohdanivka and Troitske.

Kherson – In Kherson, the sound of small arms fire could be heard within the city. The Russian base at Chornobaivka was attacked with artillery, and Ukrainian officials reported that up to 25 vehicles were destroyed. The area targeted was a repair center for light to moderately damaged Russian military vehicles, contributing to the unusually high number of losses.

Russian forces are trying to slow the Ukrainian advance west and northwest of Kherson, targeting Ukrainian-controlled areas with artillery and rockets fired from MLRS.

North of Kherson city, NASA FIRMS suggests there is fighting west of Ukrainian-controlled Lozove in Andriivka. Ukrainian attack helicopters fired on Russian positions in Davydiv Brid. Russian forces used artillery and MLRS to interdict the Ukrainian GLOC on the T-2207 highway from Osokorivka. Additionally, Russian forces did reconnaissance in force with understaffed platoons, launching two raids on Dobryanka and one on Myroliubivka. None of the attempts were successful.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces made another spoiling attack on Sosnivka and Dementiivka. Neither attack was unsuccessful. Otherwise, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery fire along the frozen front.

At least two Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck the Nemyshlianskyi District of Kharkiv city, killing three civilians.

Izyum – There are reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed the recently repaired railroad bridge in Russian-controlled Kupyansk, north of Izyum. Southwest of Pisky-Radkivski, NATO-provided HIMARS systems were fired at a forward operating training base and staging area for Luhansk (LNR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) conscripts, Russian Federation Armed Forces contract volunteers, and terrorists with the Imperial Legion reporting to Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group.

Russian forces made another ad hoc advance into Bohorodychne, backed by intense artillery fire. They were unsuccessful and returned to previously held defensive lines on the edge of the settlement.

Sumy – In the Sumy oblast, Russian forces fired small arms into the settlement of Shalyhyne.

Odesa – Black Sea – On July 7 under cover of darkness, combat divers from Ukraine’s 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center used underwater vehicles to reach Snake Island. Special forces cleared sea and land mines, performed reconnaissance, and raised several Ukrainian flags. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Serhii Bratchuk of the Odesa Military Administration reported that the Russian air force fired two cruise missiles at Snake Island that struck the pier on the island’s north side at dawn.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles at the disabled Moldovian flagged tanker Millenial Spirit. The vessel was abandoned at anchor off the coast of Odesa after it was attacked on February 25. It is reported the ship is on fire but still afloat. The smoke was visible from Odesa.

Two more Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles hit grain warehouses near Odesa, holding 35 tons of cereals awaiting export.

Beyond Ukraine – Belarusian armed forces have extended ongoing military training exercises until July 16. In another provocation, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Major General Ruslan Kosygin, said that in the event of “Western provocations,” Belarusian forces will strike primarily on the infrastructure of Poland.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, artillery and MLRS are still being used along the line of conflict, and civilians and civilian infrastructure continue to be targeted.
  2. Combat activity in the last 12 hours raises questions on whether the reports of an operational pause are authentic.
  3. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that in Ukraine, “we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,” is saber-rattling from the Kremlin unless Putin intends to declare war formally and mobilize.
  4. It appears that Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk, given the resistance against Russian advances on the edges of the Luhansk oblast.
  5. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed two to four HIMARS units on July 6 were patently false, and the NATO-provided HIMARS attacked critical military targets in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts.
  6. Russian forces continue to lose ground in Kherson despite bringing in reserve troops and increasing artillery fire.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 5, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,049 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory after the Russian Federation Armed Forces secured the region 131 days after the widescale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin told Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shogui that the units in Luhansk “should rescue [and] increase their combat capabilities.”

It took 100 days for Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed militias to secure the last 7% of the Luhansk Oblast. The Russian military will likely start to work to establish administrative control of Severodoentsk and Lysychansk. The cities of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna had a combined pre-war population of 293,500. It is estimated that 18,500 civilians remain, with the rest fleeing the area – some into Russia and others into Ukraine. Most of those who stayed behind supported the Russian invasion or were poor, disabled, or didn’t want to leave their homes.

Northeast Donetsk – In the Siversk region, Russian forces have advanced over the T-1302 Highway and taken partial control of Spirne.

Widescale artillery barrages occurred through the region, including Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and Verkhonkamyanska. Other settlements shelled include Ivano-Daryivka and Berestove.

NASA FIRMS data suggest that the town of Raihorodok has been shelled.

In the Bakhmut-Soledar region, the settlements of Pokrovske and Soledar were shelled.

Fighting continued In the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhlehar Power Plant and Russian forces shelling Kodema. Russian forces are attempting to take control of Novoluhanske, southeast of the power plant and on the reservoir’s western shore.

Based on this intelligence, we maintain that Dolomitne is contested, and we are coding Novoluhanske as contested.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – There were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. There were reports of fighting near Rivnopil, but we could not verify the veracity of the reports.

We consider Bilohirya, Luhivske, Novopokrovka, Bahate, and Ukraniske, Rivnopil, Pyatkhatky, and Stepove [Zaporizhia] as contested.

Kherson – Russian forces continue to take a defensive posture and are attempting to slow the broad advance of Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces are attempting to interdict Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines) and firing artillery, Grad, and Smerch rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

Russian forces shelled Myrne northwest of Kherson, which would indicate the settlement is contested. There are reports that Pravdyne was liberated, and Myrne and Parysheve are contested. We cannot verify the veracity of these reports. However, the report of Myrne being shelled supports the settlement is contested.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Shyroka Balka, Sofiivka, and Krytyi Yar.

In the northern region of Kherson, Topolyne, Ivanivka, Knyazivka, Potomkyne, Dobryanka, Trudolyubivka, and Osokorivka were shelled by Russian forces.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Sukhyi Stavok, Lozove, Davydiv Brid, Velkya Oleksandrivka, and Novopetrivka.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces are in Lozove. We cannot confirm the veracity of these reports. There was a drone video that showed Russian troops being killed by small arms fire. The distance from the Inhulets River was over 700 meters. There may be Ukrainian Special Operation Forces on the east side of the river, but we don’t believe this indicates there is a more significant force in the immediate area.

Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters fired on Zarichne and Olhyne. On July 3, there was evidence of significant fighting in Olhyne, and we have coded the settlement as contested based on this intelligence update. If Ukrainian forces liberate Olhyne, it will represent the full collapse of the Vysokopillya salient.

Mykolaiv – The settlements of Lupareve, Shevchenkove, Chervona Dolyna, Kobzartsi, Partyzanske, and Bereznehuvate were shelled. There were no reports of cruise missile attacks.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces did reconnaissance in force toward Kozacha Lopan from Sosnivka, likely to harass Russian positions. There were no other offensive operations in the area. There was scattered artillery fire along the rest of the line of conflict.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Mazanivka. In Dolyna, they were unsuccessful, and in Mazanivka, they moved the line of conflict to the settlement’s northern border. Russian forces attempted to advance on Virnopillya and suffered heavy losses, including eight armored vehicles.

Sumy – Russian forces continue firing at settlements across the international border in the Sumy oblast. A school was destroyed in Esman, and public utility infrastructure was destroyed in Nova Sloboda. Bilopillia was hit with at least 25 mortar shells and five missiles, injuring two people.

Chernihiv – Russian troops fired across the international border at the settlements of Mkhy and Zalizniy Mist. There were no reports of injuries or significant damage.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Ukrainian flag was dropped on Snake Island, symbolically taking control of the strategically important dot in the Black Sea.

Daily Assessment

  1. President Putin’s declaration of “rest” is not a charitable order from a benevolent leader but a tacit admission that Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed separatists of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics have exhausted their combat strength and need to reconstitute.
  2. Russian forces continue to be pressured in the Kherson oblast and struggle to hold the line of conflict.
  3. Germany announced they are providing Ukraine with four additional M270 HIMARS systems and upgraded the software to work with the Ukrainian fire control systems.
  4. Ukrainian forces are using NATO-provided guided munitions fired from HIMARS to destroy multiple military targets a day.
  5. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 3, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,047 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from Lysychansk after the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and Pryvillia were captured. With the Lysychansk-Bakhmut T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) severed and the Sivesk-Lysychansk GLOC under pressure, The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided the risk of encirclement had become too great. Additionally, Russian forces unleashed the largest artillery barrage since the collapse of the Zolote-Hirske salient. Luhansk Regional Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai confirmed the withdrawal.

Russian state media showed Russian and Chechen forces in the center of Lysychansk and the southern regions on the plateau. It is estimated that up to 10,000 civilians remain in the city once home to 95,000.

There weren’t indications of large numbers of Ukrainian troops being captured or the abandonment of significant quantities of heavy weapons.

Ukrainian forces fell back to preprepared defensive positions in Siversk. Due to the ongoing Ukrainian withdrawal, the renewed line of conflict is very difficult to define.

Russian forces attempted a reconnaissance in force advance into Berestove but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, Siversk, Serberianka, Hryhorivka, Bilhorivka [Donetsk], and Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – Southeast of Bakhmut, Russian forces shelled the electrical service transformer farm at Vesela Dolyna. Sentinel-2 L2A imagery showed a massive fire at the center of the facility.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – Russia-backed separatists of the Donetsk People’s Republic 1st Army attempted an advance on Novomykhalivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot in the city of Yasynuvata near Donetsk.

In the Russia-controlled port city of Berdyansk, salvage engineers raised the Large Landing Ship (LLS), Saratov, from the bottom of the harbor. The Saratov was sunk on March 24 during a Ukrainian cruise missile attack, damaging two additional LLS and severely damaging a civilian cargo ship.

Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian airbase in the occupied town of Melitopol with 12 rockets fired from NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), striking defensives and two logistic warehouses. Additionally, a freight train traveling between Crimea and Melitopol was attacked by insurgents. Insurgents also derailed a Russian armored train.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces shelled the Russian-controlled airport at Chornobaivka, destroying an ammunition depot. The settlement of Pervomaiske suffered intense shelling by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement of Ivanivka and Zarichne [Kherson] and are attacking Russian positions in Arkhanhelske on the east bank of the Inhulets River. Russian forces have suffered significant losses.

To replace equipment losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense is transferring 40 to 67 tanks from Zaporizhia to Kherson.

Mykolaiv – Up to 12 Russian Onyx cruise missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv. The missiles targeted the port and grain storage.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile struck the city of Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, destroying a factory.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with Iskander-M Short Range Ballistic Missiles SRBM), with several strikes in the city and the suburbs of Cherkaska Lozova and Derhachi.

Izyum – Slovyansk – Russian forces made another ad hoc advance on Bohorodychne, which was unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are using HIMARS to interdict Russian GLOC into and south of Izyum, significantly impacting the ability to resupply and support Russian forces on the line of conflict. Ukrainian forces reestablished the wet crossing southeast of Chepil.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Russian Su-30 aircraft fired a Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missile into the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, striking another hotel.

The Ukrainian air force bombed Snake Island’s remaining Russian military assets, destroying a Tornado Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and three other support vehicles on the pier.

Russian Federation – Missile debris from a failed Iskander-M launch or possibly from a Russian antiaircraft missile fell onto the city of Belgorod, Russia. Local authorities reported dozens of homes were damaged, and three civilians were killed. The Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of firing a Tochka-U missile armed with cluster munitions on Kursk, but later retracted the accusation and claimed it shot down three Ukrainian missiles.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense has put intense pressure on its commanders in Ukraine to complete the capture of the Luhansk oblast, and it is unlikely they will have an operational pause.
  2. Russia will continue to focus on securing the Luhansk Oblast at all costs.
  3. NATO-provided HIMARS is already having a significant impact on combat operations for Ukraine.
  4. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  5. Russian forces’ defensive capabilities in Kherson are increasingly degraded as they deploy 360-degree perimeter defenses in the settlements they still control.
  6. Supply interdiction west and northwest of Izyum is impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities toward Slovyansk.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 2, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,046 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces continued to make gains in the Severodonetsk salient south and northwest of Lysychansk, but their progress has slowed considerably.

Russian and Chechen forces supported by Russia-backed separatists captured the settlement of Pryvillia northwest of Lysychansk after making and defending a wet crossing over the Siverskyi Donets River.

The line of conflict south and southwest of Lysychansk is little changed in the last 24 hours. Russian forces have not advanced further in the southeastern lowlands, held at the edge of Bila Hora. Ukrainian forces continue to defend the west bank of the Siveryski Donets River.

Fighting continues around the children’s hospital and rubber factory. Russian forces claim to have advanced and recaptured the gelatin factory, but there was no supporting information to back up the claim.

Intense fighting continues for control of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery with no change in territorial control. There is intense fighting in the Russian-controlled part of the refinery. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces claims that Russian forces have been pushed east of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line), but no information supports the claim.

Russian forces captured the settlement of Toplivka, north of the oil refinery, adding pressure to the GLOCs that support Lysychansk. Russian forces also advanced from Vovchoyarivka and reached Maloyazantseve, about 5 kilometers south of the Lysychansk plateau.

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – East of Bakhmut, Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by Russia-backed separatists, tried to improve their positions on the eastern edge of Klynove but were unsuccessful.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in Dolomitne and Novoluhanske. Ukrainian forces continued to hold their positions at the Vuhledar Power Plant.

There were no other attempts by Russian forces to advance west and secure the T-1302 Highway GLOC from Mykolaivka south to Pokrovske. Russian ground forces continued to rely on artillery, Grad rockets, and thermobaric rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). The artillery barrage around Lysychansk, including Pidlisne, Loskutivka, Vovchoyarivka, and Verkhnokamyanka, was similar to the intensity when Russian forces collapsed the Zolote-Hirske salient.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russia-backed separatists from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) performed tactical assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka but made no gains.

Kherson – Videos recorded before June 28 provided definitive evidence that the salient on the east bank of the Inhulets River between Davydiv Brid and Lozove collapsed in mid-June, and Ukrainian forces were pushed back across the river.

Odesa – Black Sea – The Russian air force conducted two sorties to bomb Snake Island. This was likely to destroy the equipment they abandoned after their withdrawal on June 30. The Russian Ministry of Defense is now claiming that Snake Island is still under Russian control after intense backlash from Kremlin supporters for leaving the island as a claimed gesture of “goodwill.”

Russian forces did not launch any other spoiling attacks, tactical or strategic offensives across the rest of Ukraine. Russian ground combat activity was limited to the Severodonetsk salient for two of the last three days.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russia continues to focus on securing the Luhansk oblast at all costs.
  2. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  3. The Ukrainian defense of Lysychansk has stiffened, likely frustrating the Kremlin’s plans for what was perceived would be a quick victory in the Luhansk oblast.
  4. Pro-Russian social media accounts are already resetting expectations, claiming that “2,000 Ukrainian forces are trapped” in Lysychansk, down from “10,000 will be surrounded” claims last week.
  5. Russian forces increasingly rely on artillery as a force multiplier but lack the troops to launch meaningful offensives outside of the Severodonetsk salient.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 30, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,044 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Odesa – Overnight, Ukrainian forces attacked Snake Island off the coast of Odesa with NATO-provided long-range artillery and missiles. In the early stages of the attack, a Russian Pantsir antiaircraft system and supporting radar station were knocked out. The loss of the radar station disabled command and control of the other air defense assets on the island. The garrison requested to be evacuated and two ships from the Black Sea fleet, supported by helicopters, evacuated the Russian troops. A Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter was shot down during the evacuation. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the withdrawal, claiming it was a planned gesture of “goodwill.”

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – The situation in the Severodonetsk salient is complex, with continued reports from Pro-Russian accounts that Ukraine is withdrawing or has withdrawn from the city. There are repeated claims that Ukraine withdrew from Pryvillia. However, no videos, pictures, or state media reports have been produced to back up any of these reports.

There is significant evidence that Russian forces have seized control of parts of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line).

The line of conflict south and southwest of Lysychansk is little changed in the last 24 hours. Russian forces still control Bila Hora and have likely advanced past the children’s hospital and into the residential neighborhoods in the southeastern Lysychansk lowlands. This area is contested, with fighting continuing at the rubber factory. The battle for control of the gelatin plant has entered its sixth day.

NASA FIRMS data suggests there is intense fighting in Pidlisne. It is unlikely the state of control has changed, and this may represent a spoiling attack by Ukraine to ease pressure over the fight to control the oil refinery.

Russian forces have not been able to advance into the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Instead, they flanked the facility to the south, crossed the T-1302 Highway GLOC, and severed it. NASA FIRMS data suggests intense fighting in the eastern part of Verkhnokamyanske.

Russian forces also crossed the T-1302 Highway GLOC west of Mykolaivka and advanced into Spirne. The settlement is contested.

The remainder of Russian combat activity across Ukraine was limited to artillery, Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) rockets, airstrikes, and minor skirmishes across the rest of Ukraine.

Europe – Kremlin-backed Killnet launched cyberattacks on Norweigian government websites in response to Norway blocking land and air transit of sanctioned Russian goods to Svalbard. Norway insists it’s only enforcing existing sanctions, and port access to the archipelago remains unrestricted.

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