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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 3, 2022

Russia claims to have control of Lysychansk, Ukraine liberates two settlements in Kherson, explosions in Belgorod.

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The sun rises over russian occupied lysychansk with black smoke rising on the horizon - the view looks at an intersection in the city with debris in the road and damaged buildings

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,047 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from Lysychansk after the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and Pryvillia were captured. With the Lysychansk-Bakhmut T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) severed and the Sivesk-Lysychansk GLOC under pressure, The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided the risk of encirclement had become too great. Additionally, Russian forces unleashed the largest artillery barrage since the collapse of the Zolote-Hirske salient. Luhansk Regional Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai confirmed the withdrawal.

Russian state media showed Russian and Chechen forces in the center of Lysychansk and the southern regions on the plateau. It is estimated that up to 10,000 civilians remain in the city once home to 95,000.

There weren’t indications of large numbers of Ukrainian troops being captured or the abandonment of significant quantities of heavy weapons.

Ukrainian forces fell back to preprepared defensive positions in Siversk. Due to the ongoing Ukrainian withdrawal, the renewed line of conflict is very difficult to define.

Russian forces attempted a reconnaissance in force advance into Berestove but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, Siversk, Serberianka, Hryhorivka, Bilhorivka [Donetsk], and Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – Southeast of Bakhmut, Russian forces shelled the electrical service transformer farm at Vesela Dolyna. Sentinel-2 L2A imagery showed a massive fire at the center of the facility.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – Russia-backed separatists of the Donetsk People’s Republic 1st Army attempted an advance on Novomykhalivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot in the city of Yasynuvata near Donetsk.

In the Russia-controlled port city of Berdyansk, salvage engineers raised the Large Landing Ship (LLS), Saratov, from the bottom of the harbor. The Saratov was sunk on March 24 during a Ukrainian cruise missile attack, damaging two additional LLS and severely damaging a civilian cargo ship.

Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian airbase in the occupied town of Melitopol with 12 rockets fired from NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), striking defensives and two logistic warehouses. Additionally, a freight train traveling between Crimea and Melitopol was attacked by insurgents. Insurgents also derailed a Russian armored train.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces shelled the Russian-controlled airport at Chornobaivka, destroying an ammunition depot. The settlement of Pervomaiske suffered intense shelling by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement of Ivanivka and Zarichne [Kherson] and are attacking Russian positions in Arkhanhelske on the east bank of the Inhulets River. Russian forces have suffered significant losses.

To replace equipment losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense is transferring 40 to 67 tanks from Zaporizhia to Kherson.

Mykolaiv – Up to 12 Russian Onyx cruise missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv. The missiles targeted the port and grain storage.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile struck the city of Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, destroying a factory.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with Iskander-M Short Range Ballistic Missiles SRBM), with several strikes in the city and the suburbs of Cherkaska Lozova and Derhachi.

Izyum – Slovyansk – Russian forces made another ad hoc advance on Bohorodychne, which was unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are using HIMARS to interdict Russian GLOC into and south of Izyum, significantly impacting the ability to resupply and support Russian forces on the line of conflict. Ukrainian forces reestablished the wet crossing southeast of Chepil.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Russian Su-30 aircraft fired a Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missile into the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, striking another hotel.

The Ukrainian air force bombed Snake Island’s remaining Russian military assets, destroying a Tornado Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and three other support vehicles on the pier.

Russian Federation – Missile debris from a failed Iskander-M launch or possibly from a Russian antiaircraft missile fell onto the city of Belgorod, Russia. Local authorities reported dozens of homes were damaged, and three civilians were killed. The Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of firing a Tochka-U missile armed with cluster munitions on Kursk, but later retracted the accusation and claimed it shot down three Ukrainian missiles.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense has put intense pressure on its commanders in Ukraine to complete the capture of the Luhansk oblast, and it is unlikely they will have an operational pause.
  2. Russia will continue to focus on securing the Luhansk Oblast at all costs.
  3. NATO-provided HIMARS is already having a significant impact on combat operations for Ukraine.
  4. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  5. Russian forces’ defensive capabilities in Kherson are increasingly degraded as they deploy 360-degree perimeter defenses in the settlements they still control.
  6. Supply interdiction west and northwest of Izyum is impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities toward Slovyansk.

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