Tag Archives: zatoka

Breaking News, National, Russia-Ukraine War

Intel on planned Russian attacks leads to State Dept. advising Americans to leave Ukraine

August 23, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,099 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Breaking News

The United States Department of State has urged all Americans to evacuate Ukraine due to specific intelligence of Russian plans to launch widescale attacks on civilians and government centers through the upcoming week.

“The Department of State has information that Russia is stepping up efforts to launch strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and government facilities in the coming days,” according to the embassy’s website.

“The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens to depart Ukraine now using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so.”

Bakhmut

Near Bakhmut, fighting continues on the outskirts of Soledar. Russian forces have been unable to advance past the KNAUF-GIPS sheetrock plant.

Russian forces continued their attacks on Zaitseve, 10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut. Two advances were attempted, a storming action and a reconnaissance in force assault; neither was unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces only attempted an advance on Kodema but failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

North of Avdiivka, DNR separatists attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka but did not gain any new territory.

Separatist troops made another attempt to advance on Pervomaiske but failed to improve their tactical positions. The village of Nevelske came under attack by DNR separatists, who could not find a way to move through the exposed, artillery-blasted fields. Skirmishes in the area of Pisky continued.

An ammunition depot in Rozdolne was hit by rockets fired from HIMARS.

South of Donetsk, Russian forces continue to advance further into Novomykhailivka without success.

On the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces attempted to advance on Zolota Nyva again but did not move the line of conflict.

There are reports from reliable sources that Ukrainian forces have launched an offensive in the area of Polohy.

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Izyum

There is growing evidence that Russian forces in Izyum are experiencing shortages of artillery munitions, having to use antiaircraft guns for direct fire.

Kherson

Rockets fired by HIMARS hit the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson. There are unconfirmed reports that the strike occurred as a Russian column of supply trucks carrying ammunition was on the bridge.

An S-300 antiaircraft missile fired by Russian forces to attack Mykolaiv failed after launch and crashed in Russian-controlled Zelenivka, near Kherson.

Dnipropetrovsk

Ukrainian forces accused Russian troops of shelling the thermal plant in Enerhodar. A video showed the water feed lines damaged, and a man slumped over in the driver seat of a taxi with shrapnel damage.

Valentyn Reznichenko, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Marhanets was hit by artillery fire wounding two people. Nikopol was not attacked with Grad rockets for the first time in more than six weeks.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported a border skirmish involving light arms fire at an unspecified border village in the Shostka district.

Odesa, Crimea, and the Black Sea

Two cruise missiles were fired at the previously disabled Zatoka Bridge southwest of Odesa.

Beyond Ukraine

Moldova and Ukraine worked collaboratively to reopen the Berezyne-Basarabeasca rail connection. The completed upgrades have restored rail connections from the rest of Europe, bypassing the damaged Zatoka Bridge over the Dniester estuary.

Daily Assessment

  1. There wasn’t any reported ground combat in northeast Donetsk, Kharkiv, Izyum, or Kherson, which may be due to Russian staffing and supply challenges or a standdown order due to looming more significant attacks.
  2. The United States Department of State warning from the embassy in Kyiv validates our assessment that there is a very high chance of multiple and significant punitive strikes against Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure planned for the week of August 22.
  3. There is growing evidence that Russian forces on the Izyum axis are suffering from ammunition shortages, hampering their ability to hold the current lines of defense.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Russia has exhausted its combat capabilities in Ukraine

August 22, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,098 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Breaking News

Russian cruise missiles struck Zatoka for the twelfth time since February 24. Russian cruise missiles hit the disabled Zatoka Bridge. There are no reports of injuries.

Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces were attempted an advance on Vesele [Donetsk] from Spirne while Siversk and the surrounding settlements were shelled, as was Ivano-Daryivka.

An ammunition depot in Alchevsk was destroyed in a rocket attack launched by HIMARS.

Bakhmut

PMC Wagner Group and elements of the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted to advance into Soledar and Bakhmutske without success.

Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the LNR separatists, remains on the outskirts of Bakhmut. The 58th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine shot down a Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft. 

Russian forces continued their attacks on Zaitseve, 10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut, striking from two directions.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces attacked Kodema from three directions but failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

North of Donetsk, an attempt to advance on Niu York ended in failure. DNR separatists fought positional battles near Krasnohorivka but could not improve their tactical situation.

West of Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance on Optyne and Pisky using reconnaissance in force without success.

The village of Nevelske was attacked from two directions, but a lack of tanks made moving across the open fields near impossible for light infantry forces.

DNR separatists tried to improve their positions in eastern Marinka using reconnaissance in force. They also attempted to flank Markina from Luhanske without success.

In Donetsk, rockets fired from HIMARS made a precision strike on a large ammunition depot in the eastern part of the city.

On the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces tried to advance on the Velyka Novosilka suburb of Neskuchne and were unsuccessful.

Kharkiv

North of Izyum, Russian forces launched offensives on Dementiivka and Pytomnyk, but they were unsuccessful.

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Izyum

South of Izyum, Russian forces maintained tradition with attempted advances on Dmytrivka and Bohorodychne using reconnaissance in force. They weren’t successful. Russian units attacked Ukrainian positions in Dibrovne, Dolyna, and Karnaukhivka. They also tried to advance in the direction of Nova Dmytrivka from Brazhkivka. They were not able to gain new territory.

Kherson

Rockets fired from HIMARS hit the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson, producing a major fire and a large explosion. Rockets also hit the bridge and Russian bases in Nova Kakhovka.

Russian airborne troops (VDV) continued their attempts to advance on Tavrijs’ke from Oleksandrivka. They could not improve their positions. Russian forces attempted to capture all of Blahodatne [Mykolaiv] but remained unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces launched offensives on Novohrednjeve and Sukhyi Stavok, intending to expand the Inhulets River bridgehead. Fighting was described as intense. However, Ukrainian troops did not capture either settlement.

Dnipropetrovsk

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is unchanged. None of the parties involved in negotiations to allow inspectors into the power plant have set a date for when the International Atomic Energy Agency will arrive.

Valentyn Reznichenko, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Nikopol was hit by Grad rockets fired from the Zaporizhzhia NPP region.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that the settlements of Bilopillia, Khotin, and Velykopysarivska were shelled from across the international border with Russia. There were no injuries, and none of the strikes caused major damage.

In Chernihiv, the settlements of Muravyi and Zaliznyi Mist were shelled. There were no reports of damage or injuries.

Odesa, Crimea, and the Black Sea

North of Odesa, Russia fired five Kalibr cruise missiles into the Odesa Oblast. Two were shot down, with three landing in the area of Maiors’ke. Russia also fired two cruise missiles at the Zatoka Bridge south of Odesa. The bridge has been disabled since early May, and this was the sixth strike on the structure since the start of the war.

Russian air defenses fired at unidentified objects across the Crimea Peninsula, but there were no confirmed drone or missile strikes. Russian sources did not provide any proof to support claims of rockets, missiles, and drones being shot down.

Beyond Ukraine

Russia’s National Republican Army claimed responsibility for the assassination of Daryna Dugina on August 21. The group claims that they planted an improvised explosive device (IED) under the driver’s seat of her father’s SUV.

Daily Assessment

  1. The British Ministry of Intelligence and the ISW assessed that Russian forces had exhausted their combat strength, validating our conclusion from August 19.
  2. Russian officials have likely kicked out Ukrainian employees of Energoatom from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to eliminate evidence of its use as a military base in preparation for the agreed-to International Atomic Energy Agency inspection.
  3. There is a very high chance of multiple and significant punitive strikes against Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure the week of August 22 due to attacks on Belgorod, Russian-occupied Crimea, the assassination of Darya Dugina, and Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations on August 24.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Russian offensive to capture Avdiivka falters – August 17, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,093 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces gaining additional protection from the Russian air force withdrew from the area of Ivano-Darivka back to the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

The former offices of the Ukrainian Intelligence Service in occupied Lysychansk were destroyed in a rocket attack launched by High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems (HIMARS). Governor Haidai reported the building was occupied by the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR). It is claimed over 100 were killed.

On August 15, an ammunition depot in Russian-controlled Rodakove was destroyed in a probable HIMARS attack.

Officers of the 2nd Army Corps on the LNR accidentally revealed the location of their command post in Lysychansk when they posted pictures on social media. The photos included all the metadata, including the precise geolocation.

Bakhmut

Reconnaissance units probed Ukrainian defenses in Soledar near the area of the KNAUFF-GIPS sheetrock factory and returned to their positions. In support of the attempted advance on Soledar, Russian forces continue to attempt to advance on Bakhmutske.

Russian forces tried to move into Zaitseve (10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut) using reconnaissance in force and were unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces attempted to advance into Zaitseve (north of Horlivka) but were unsuccessful.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance through the Mayorsk border crossing after Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions to the north and were unsuccessful. Following an artillery barrage on Shumy, DNR forces attempted to advance into the settlement and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps attempted to advance on Nevelske and Opytne. The advance on Nevelske was unsuccessful, and fighting was ongoing in Spartak, southeast of Opytne.

After fighting to secure the Butivka Mine Ventilation Shaft compound on the southeast edge of Pisky, DNR forces abandoned their positions without a fight. We have recoded Pisky as contested based on social intelligence, the General Staff report, and Russian state media reports.

Ukrainian forces shelled a water treatment plant in Donetsk city, causing additional damage to the facility, which was previously attacked on March 16.

Russian missiles destroyed several warehouses and electrical infrastructure in Kurakhove.

In the southern part of the Donbas, fighting for control of Novobakhmutivka continued, with Ukrainian positions being hit by airstrikes and artillery.

Russian forces attempted an advance on Shevchenko and were unsuccessful.

The International Red Cross now claims that its employees were able to visit the Russian penal colony in Olenvika, Donetsk, on two occasions. The revelation reverses earlier claims that they had never been allowed inside the compound. The ICRC stated they had no opportunities to meet with prisoners face-to-face, and Russian proxy forces would not allow unsupervised meetings, violating the Geneva Convention. For background information, you can read our Special Report: Anatomy of a botched false flag attack at Detention Camp 52.

Kharkiv

Members of the Azov Battalion conducted a special operation in Russian-controlled Ternova, northeast of Kharkiv. The unit destroyed two Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicles, an ammunition depot, and an observation post. Russian forces responded by remotely mining the settlements of Peremoha and Ukrainka.

Southeast of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched offensives toward Bazaliivka and Lebyazhe – neither were successful.

Russian forces shelled Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure along the entire line of conflict, including firing rockets from MLRS into the Saltivka District of Kharkiv.

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Izyum

South of Izyum, Russian forces continued their attempts to recapture Mazanivka and were unsuccessful. A new offensive to recapture Bohorodychne was launched, resulting in Russian forces being pushed back.

Russian forces shelled and then remote mined Dibrovne. The General Staff reported that Russian forces were advancing in the area of Nova Dymtrivka and were unsuccessful.

Near the village of Rudneve, Russian forces were ambushed by Ukrainian forces in the so-called “Sherwood Forest” region, west of Izyum.

Kherson

Russian efforts to push Ukraine from the Inhulets River bridgehead failed. Russian Special Operation Forces (SOF) attempted to flank Ukrainian positions in Bilohirka by advancing a platoon toward Bila Krynsytsya. The unit was discovered, suffered heavy losses, and retreated.

Simultaneously Russian forces from Davydiv Brid advanced on Bilohirka, contested the town, and then were pushed back, suffering heavy casualties in the failed offensive.

Russian forces made a second attempt to advance on Novohryhorivka, northwest of Kherson city and were unsuccessful.

There are reports that units of the Chechen Rosgvardiya have been redeployed east of the Dnipro River to prevent deserters from trying to leave their positions in Kherson. There have not been reports of widespread desertion, but morale is reported to be low, with the 25,000 Russian troops west of the river cut off.

Dnipropetrovsk

The settlement of Nikopol was shelled overnight. There was damage to the Nikopol highway and six homes but no casualties.

There has been no progress on efforts to demilitarize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Volodymyr Rogov, the Russian-appointed head of Zaporizhzhia, accused Ukraine of shelling the power plant and damaging the cooling circuit.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Lviv on August 18. Topics will include grain shipments, economics, and the situation at Zaporizhzhia. After the meeting in Lviv, Guterres will travel to Odesa.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that 130 artillery shells hit border towns on August 16. The settlements of Khotin, Billopillia, Myrolaiivka, Shalyhyne, and Krasnopillia were attacked.

The settlement of Kamianska Sloboda in the Chernihiv oblast was shelled from across the international border. There were no reports of casualties.

Odesa-Crimea-Black Sea

The seaside resort town of Zatoka was struck by two Kh-22 air-to-sea cruise missiles fired by Russian air force Tu-22M3 heavy bombers. The attack destroyed up to seven seaside hotels and over a dozen summer homes. This was the 11th attack on Zatoka since the start of the war.

Russian state media reported that the naval airbase in Russian-controlled Hvardeyskye, Crimea experienced a fire with several explosions. Two squadrons of the 37th Composite Aviation Regiment are stationed at the base.

Zhytomyr

Two Russian Kh-59 air-to-sea cruise missiles fired by Russian Su-34 aircraft operating in Belarusian airspace struck the Ukrainian air force base in Ozerne. Ukrainian officials reported the runway was cratered, and several non-aviation vehicles were damaged.

Beyond Ukraine

Russian officials are blaming Ukrainian Special Operation Forces for destroying multiple power transmission towers in the Kursk region. Russian FSB reported that between August 4 and 12, six towers for electrical distribution carrying from 110 to 750 kilovolts connected to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant were destroyed.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces continue to make operational security errors contributing to Ukrainian successes.
  2. The 1st Army Corps has likely abandoned direct assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka and may be reallocating troops already from Pisky.
  3. Ukrainian military leaders have maintained defensive lines across Ukraine despite having fewer resources and an artillery deficit.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Kherson Cut Off – July 27, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 22 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,072 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – Russian forces remain blocked at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Another attempt to advance on Verkhnokamyanske was made, and it was unsuccessful. Russian forces also attacked Hryhorivka, supported by airstrikes, but could not break through Ukrainian defenses.

Northeast Donetsk – Positional battles continued in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. On the morning of July 25, Ukrainian forces reported they had liberated Berestove. Late on July 25, it appeared Russian forces had recaptured the settlement for the second time Early on the morning of July 27, Ukrainian forces recaptured the town. The village is completely destroyed from months of fighting, and the T-1302 Highway is badly damaged.

Bakhmut – East of Soledar, Russian forces occupied Stryapivka temporarily. They likely attempted to extend too far into Soledar and were pushed back by Ukrainian forces. Fighting for control of the village continued.

Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group claimed to have fully secured Pokrovske, east of Bakhmut. Reports of continued fighting, artillery, and airstrikes indicate that gains have likely been overstated.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant and Luhanske on the evening of July 25. Ukrainian forces also withdrew from Novoluhanske to avoid becoming encircled. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group were confirmed to be on the power plant grounds. Russian forces attempted to advance from Roty to Semyirya to seal off retreating Ukrainian troops and were unsuccessful. Russian forces needed 62 days to advance 5.5 kilometers and secure the power plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Pavlivka and were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges from Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces using High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacked the Antonovskiyy Bridge for the third time and the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge. The Antonovskiyy Bridge is severely damaged with significant structural damage. Russian state media reported the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge was damaged but did not provide further details. Russian forces in Kherson are now cut off from road and rail lines on the west side of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces have completed construction of a pontoon bridge adjacent to the destroyed Darivika Bridge over the Inhulets River. Due to poor operational security, it is likely the bridge will be a priority target in the coming days.

Operational Command South reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Bilohirka, indicating the settlement is still under Russian control. It was also reported that Andriivka [Kherson] and Lozove are liberated.

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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role and Kh-59 cruise missiles at Mykolaiv. Up to eight missiles struck an already destroyed railroad bridge over the Inhulets River,  one missile hit the port, and another hit a thermal plant.

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives from July 25 to July 26 north or northeast of Kharkiv. Both sides fired artillery rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and fired from tanks.

Ukrainian forces used a Switchblade 300 kamikaze drone to attack a car at the Russian border checkpoint in Troebortnoe, north of Kharkiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims one person was killed, a Moldovian citizen, and two were wounded. Ukraine claims that two FSB agents were killed.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated. With reconnaissance in force, Russian forces attempted to advance on Chepil and suffered heavy losses.

There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces withdrew from Yatskivka and Studenok. We had previously reported that Russian troops had been pushed entirely out of Bohorodychne. Additionally, between July 21 and July 25, the bridge between Russian-controlled Yarmivka and Studenok was destroyed. In Russian-controlled Borova, a HIMARS strike hit the railroad yard, where Russian military equipment was staged for transport.

The Exiled Borova City Council reported that Russian troops have been withdrawing from the Izyum axis since July 22. Troops are reportedly moving north, and the field hospital for wounded Russian soldiers in Borova was closed.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and rockets fired by MLRS struck the settlements of Esman, Krasnopillya, and Seredyna-Buda.

Chernihiv – Viacheslav Chaus, head of the Chernihiv Oblast State and Military Administration, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Leonivka and Hirsk.

Odesa – The Russian air force launched a massive attack on the village of Zatoka and the already destroyed Zatoka bridge. Up to 13 cruise missiles hit the village and the disabled span. The missile attack damaged or destroyed 155 buildings in the restive seaside resort town.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
  2. Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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