Monthly Archives: August 2021

Local, Weather

After 50 days and 50 nights finally some rain in sight

[KIRKLAND, Wash] – (MTN) The last time it rained at Seattle-Tacoma Airport, where official weather records are kept, was June 15 – 50 days ago. Despite spotty showers and thunderstorms passing through the area yesterday, and some spot drizzle and showers two weeks ago, the rain gauge only got a trace in July. That is the fifth time Seattle has had a rainless month, and the third time in the last ten years. It looks like that is about to change.

If you found a casino to take a rain bet and you picked August 6, you might be a winner – our dry streak is likely to end after day 52. The longest dry streak in Seattle history was in 2017 when the region went 55 days without measurable rain at SeaTac.

Today will feel a big muggy like yesterday with high temperatures in the mid-80s for Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville. We have another chance for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms in the early evening hours. Last night’s weather helped push out the vertically integrated smoke, so it will be less hazy.

Thursday will also have a muggy feel, with dew points approaching 60 degrees and highs once again in the mid-80s. Thursday night and Friday morning are when we get our chance for rain.

A system carrying moisture is finally going to reach our region and bring with it widespread showers and much cooler air. The chance of rain peaks in the morning hours and slowly tapers off through the day. It will be cloudy, and the high temperatures will reach 70 degrees for our area.

The weekend is looking cloudy and cool with temperatures during the day around 70. Late Saturday and into Sunday morning looks like another chance for widespread rain showers in the region.

The long-range forecast shows a return to summer next week and drying out again.

Breaking News, Local

Kirkland residents are advised to boil water after water main break

KIRKLAND, Wash. – A water main break has caused a loss of pressure in a large portion of Kirkland’s water system. Crews are in the process of repairing the break and restoring water service. The City is issuing a boil water advisory for neighborhoods north of NE 85th St., south of NE 124th St., and west of I-405. Residents are also advised that in the event that there is discolored water or air in the pipes, they should leave the faucet on or continue to flush until the water runs steady and clean.

The boil water advisory is in effect until further notice. Please refer to the boil water protocol listed below.

Residents are advised to use bottled water or boil tap water.  A boil water advisory means that recent tests show that your water system is contaminated with organisms that can cause illness. Boiling is the best way to ensure water is free of illness-causing organisms. Bring the water to a rolling boil for one minute. When it cools, refrigerate the water in clean covered containers.  More information is available on the Public Health – Seattle & King County website.

National, Terra Firma, Weather

Historic drought sends lakes to record lows throughout the West

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[OROVILLE, Cali] – (MTN) Lake Oroville is less than two feet above an all-time low while Lake Shasta is at its fourth-lowest level on record as historic drought grips the western United States. Lake Shasta continues to be shrouded in smoke from the Lava Fire, where the water sits 145 feet below full pool. At 921.93 feet above Sea Level, Shasta sits at about the same level it was in January 2016. Lake Oroville is at 646.63 feet, just 19 inches higher than a record set in 1977.

At Oroville, operators need to continue water flowing to support fisheries and farmers in the San Joaquin Valley that rely on water from the Sacramento River for irrigation. The river is already dealing with record high temperatures that have devested wild salmon, and the intrusion of saltwater upstream adding pressure to the ecosystem and farmers.

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The historic low levels have forced over 140 houseboats out of the lake, and only one temporary gravel boat ramp remains operations around the entire lake. Even that ramp is in danger of closing as the level is expected to continue to drop another 25 to 30 feet by October.

The Edward Hyatt Pump-Generating Plant is capable of generating 132 megawatts of power during peak operation. Although up to 17,000 cubic feet of water can flow through the plant per second, approximately 6,000 cubic feet can be recovered and pumped back into the lake. The outflow is captured in additional reservoirs to be sent into the Sacramento River basin and support the needs of farmers to the south. Under extreme conditions, water is sent out to the Yuba River. The water level is expected to reach what hydrologists call deadpool, and the hydro plant may have to close for the first time in its 53 year history.

Lake Shasta, outside of Redding, sits below the headwaters of the Sacramento River and also generates hydroelectricity.

To the north outside of Klamath Falls, over 300 homes have had their private wells run dry, leaving residents without water for farming and personal consumption. Demand for water delivery and drilling companies has driven up costs and lead time, while some communities are providing water at pickup points. Ranchers and homeowners are looking to drill deeper, but after twenty-two years of mostly drought-filled years, there are no assurances those wells won’t run dry.

In the Klamath, a perfect storm of climate change, overutilization, treaties with first nations, and too many promises by government officials have come to head. Some have resorted to stealing water from the district, with complaints of illegal marijuana farms in the area. In this hardscrabble area with an undertone of independence and anti-government sentiment, other operators are also taking water pitting neighbor against neighbor.

Tule Lake on the Oregon-California border is divided into four regions. The most visible at the beginning of the road to Lava Beds National Monument has been allowed to drain dry. The soil deeply cracked and baking under the relentless heat. In the early 1900s, Tule Lake was significantly drained to create the farmland that surrounds the area today. Operators elected to let the most visible part of the lake complex run dry, in an attempt to convert it into a more productive marshland when and if the water returns. Area residents are skeptical and some are complaining about dust and irritation coming from the evaporating mud puddle.

To the north Upper Klamath Lake is the largest freshwater body in Oregon. The shallow lake has suffered from declining water quality for decades, both from natural and manmade influences. In 2001, water was cut off from farmers by the Bush Administration to protect native suckerfish that are on the endangered species list and protect area salmon per First Nations treaties. The impact was devastating to farmers who depend, and hold contracts for water rights.

Upper Klamath Lake is shallow – just 8 feet on average and a maximum depth of 50 feet. Although the lake currently sits at 100% of the normal level today, it has been steadily declining since 2019. Increasing temperatures, agricultural runoff, and naturally occurring chemicals turn the lake green with algae blooms.

Farmers aren’t just facing a shortage of water, they are also facing a shortage of forage and feed for livestock. The cost of hay has skyrocketed adding additional pressure on the battered finances for the region. Tariffs, a reduction in international shipping, depressed prices, have forced some to send animals to market early, getting only pennies on the dollar for their efforts while costs keep going up.

In Utah and Arizona, fear and frustration are mounting at Lake Powell. The lake is only inches from setting a new historic low, beating the record set in 2005. Frustrated locals are growing increasingly angry.

Glen Canyon Dam is the second-largest hydroelectric generating facility in the Southwest, only behind Hoover Dam outside of Las Vegas. The dam generates 1,320 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 400,000 homes. Rapid population expansion in Arizona and Utah has driven up demand as the water level continues to decline. A shutoff of the outflow through the dam would cut off a critical electrical source increasing rates, and potentially plunging communities into darkness. Officials believe the water level at Lake Powell will continue to drop until the spring of 2022 and is dependent on significant snowfall in the Rockies to stage any kind of recovery.

Misinformation on the Internet also abounds with complaints that water is flowing out of Lake Powell and Lake Mead unnecessarily and out to the ocean in California. Both lakes are on the Colorado River, which reaches the Gulf of California in Mexico, where international agreements also require water for the nation on the United States border.

In Walla Walla, Washington, city officials have had to tap one of seven wells to supplement the city water supply. Under normal conditions, water would come from Mill Creek, but extreme drought coupled with extreme demand has forced the city to tap the backup supply. There is enough water in the reserves to supply the city for “several years,” according to officials. The area is known for its wine production. Some growers are reporting up to 50% of their crops were lost in a late June heatwave, that saw temperatures soar to 110 to 115 degrees F. This is the second hit in a row for grape producers who saw some of their harvests destroyed last year by “smoke taint” a growing concern as increasing smoke from wildfires in Washington and Oregon start to creep into the region.

In a cruel twist, a heavier than normal monsoon season has sent floods sweeping through parts of Utah and Arizona. The land has become so baked it can’t absorb the water, so flash floods tear through parks, deserts, and communities offering little in the way of adding to the water supply. In Washington and parts of Oregon, it appears rain is coming next week, but lightning will be included in some areas, increasing wildfire risks in regions battered by the confluence of climate change, government policy, and overuse.

BIPOC, Local, National

Eviction moratorium allowed to end putting 8-million households at risk

[KIRKLAND, Wash] – (MTN) Congress had no appetite to extended the eviction moratorium as the August recess began, allowing it to end at 12:01 AM on August 1. Now, up to 8-million households behind on rent or mortgages are facing an uncertain future.

When COVID-related shutdowns swept the country in March of 2020, U6 unemployment skyrocketed to 18.1%. Even before the public health and financial disaster, 40% of American families didn’t have $2,000 in emergency savings, let alone the 60 to 90 days of living expenses financial planners recommend. COVID wiped out entire industries such as hospitality, travel, and theater, and entertainment. For those in the service industry and gig economy, the slowdown has hit the hardest.

In response to the looming economic collapse, Congress passed the CARES Act, which included a one-time stimulus check of $1200 for some Americans, the Payroll Protection Program (PPP), and a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures. Despite trillions in aid, gaping holes remained that Main Street and American families have fallen through. Banks did not get guardrails on how to manage forbearances. Congress didn’t waive rent, only deferred it, and didn’t provide any financial support for small landlords. At one point, 12 million American households were $5000 or more behind on rent and 6 million households were facing foreclosure. The numbers have improved dramatically, dropping 50% for renters behind and 67% for mortgage holders.

Congressional leaders and the White House agreed on a second stimulus package in December 2020. President Trump initially did not sign the package, waiting until some benefits expired on December 26, before signing it the next day. The delay in signature created chaos for state unemployment systems. In March 2021, President Biden signed a third and almost certainly a final stimulus package, that extended the eviction moratorium another 30 days. 

Up to $4 trillion in cash awaits for the foreclosures and evictions to begin

At the start of 2020, private equity firms were sitting on $2.5 trillion in cash. They call it dry powder, money ready for investment where the quants feel the best ROI awaits. By some estimates, there is now as much as $4 trillion on the sidelines.

The United States needs at least 7 million more affordable housing units than what is available today. Although rents in cities like Seattle have declined by 20% in 2020, property values have skyrocketed. Additionally, just as the moratoriums are ending, rents are increasing across the United States, sometimes dramatically.

Private Equity, institutional investors, and banks are already moving in. In 2019, 6% of single-family homes sold went into the rental market. Today it is 20%, and 25% in cities such as Houston. Blackrock and JP Morgan have been buying up entire neighborhoods, up to 140 homes at a time. Large investors are extending all-cash offers 20% to 50% over the asking price in some areas. The plan is to convert these into rentals.

The ripple effect impacts first-time buyers as it constrains an already tight market that can’t compete with the offers. The price raises existing prices for sale, driving up property taxes, gentrifying neighborhoods. For some, living “van life,” in trailers in special communities, or couch surfing has become the fallback plan.

For millions of Americans who are still paying rent, there is a hidden crisis in 2021. As small landlords lose their properties, these renters will get eviction notices from hedge funds and banks, with no interest in working with them to make sure they don’t end up homeless.

According to the Aspen Institute, 80% of those facing foreclosure and eviction are Black, Indigenous, or Persons of Color (BIPOC). For white households in America, the average net worth is $170,000, while for Black families, it is $17,000. This inequity can’t be explained away by education, income, or indebtedness. For white Americans, once they become homeowners, five percent will fall back into renting. For Black Americans, the rate is double, at 10%. Black-owned small businesses had limited access to government aid programs, and by August, 40% of all Black-owned small companies had failed.

BIPOC communities are more likely to be “needless delinquent.” Analysts estimate 400,000 American homeowners are eligible for forbearances on their mortgage but are not aware or have been given misinformation from their lender. For some of these struggling homeowners, the damage isn’t foreclosure but the destruction of their credit score. A lower credit score impacts interest rates, insurance premiums and can even be a barrier to getting a job. 

What a $600 billion transfer in wealth looks like

Court systems from Boston to Seattle are bracing for a flood of forclosure and eviction filings. Here too, banks and large corporate property holders will benefit. With more legal resources and free cash to act, their cases will move to the front of the line. Mom and pop landlords will have to track their court cases independently, without a management company to oversee activity. Already facing a cash crunch, they’ll still have to pay court costs and lawyers’ fees, but that will only be the start of their problems.

The average American house has a value of $296,000. If 2 million households get foreclosed in 2021, that represents $600 billion in property dumped into the market. For the 4 million households facing eviction, the looming crisis is even worse. An eviction on a credit report is a barrier to permanent housing, requiring large deposits. They’re facing thousands in debt and potential judgments with interest they can’t pay. An eviction can be a scarlet letter for years, becoming a barrier to buying a car, getting a job, or buying a home.

Although it may appear to be a boom for landlords with 4 million families hitting a rental reset button, this isn’t the case. For many, the door to another rental will be closed. Landlords may evict a family who can’t pay the rent, only to find applications from families who were just evicted.

Millennials in high-paying office jobs fled the rental market in 2020 for the suburbs to escape COVID restrictions and get more space for a home office. Large investors can amortize their investment and use tax vehicles to lower their expenses. Mom and pop landlords will face a further reduction in their passive income, driving even more homes into sale and foreclosure.

Congress has no financial incentive to stop this nightmare. For both parties, lobbies, PACs, and dark money keep congresspersons and senators in their positions of power. For the 40% of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck, there is no lobby to bend representative ears and grease the palms.

The reality is if this financial disaster is not averted, the 6 million households on the brink could be the tip of the iceberg.

National, Terra Firma, Weather

The West is burning – untold stories of two California towns devastated by the Dixie Fire

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[INDIAN FALLS, Cali] – (MTN) Thick smoke hung heavy in the air creating sepia tones in the hamlet of Indian Falls, California, devastated by the Dixie Fire earlier this week. The tiny village, comprised of less than 10 streets showed the capricious nature and awesome power of nature. As of today, the Dixie Fire has grown to 244,888 acres with thunderstorms in the region whipping the fire into a new fury about 10 miles away, in Quincy, California.

A home would be untouched while the house next door was burned to ash – nothing appeared recoverable in the debris. For the home destroyed, only twisted corrugated metal roofing, half-molten appliances, the occasional chimney, and foundations remained. Fire hoses and couplings laid everywhere, telling a story of firefighters who made a stand until it was completely untenable, dropped hoses, and ran for their lives.

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In the debris, signs of past lives and lost legacies could be found. In what appeared to be the remains of a garage, two massive tool chests were partially buckled, a few drawers had been pushed open from the heat and deformation. Inside some tools were hopelessly damaged, others only blackened by the smoke and heat. At another location, the remains of exercise equipment told a story of a dedicated workout area now lost forever.

An SUV in the driveway left rivers of aluminum on the ground from where the rims and the engine block had liquified. The engine bay itself was empty, the block disappearing in the fire. Only around the dashboard was any molten auto glass left, the rest had vanished. At this house, the fire was over 1,600 degrees F. In what was a garden, everything was gone, except for a metal welcome sign standing only inches from a blackened tree.

On another street it appeared residents tried to save their cars by parking them on the road – it was to no avail. The utility poles had burned through dropping powerlines onto the cars. Only one vehicle survived – an ironically named Triumph TR7 convertible had light damage despite a power transformer landing inches from it, leaking all of its internal oil, that had also caught on fire. Just down the road were the remains of a Buick that had been consumed in the flames. Just feet away from a burned-out Corvette, a fiberglass boat with a canvas cover had not burned but had extensive heat damage on one side.

The air was thick with smoke, and beyond the sound of fire equipment on Route 89 passing by, there was an eerie, post-apocalyptic silence. Biting black flies flitted by. According to the Department of the Interior, smoke flies are attracted to forest fires because they need to lay their eggs in recently burned wood. The scene could be described as Biblical as light ash rained down.

One property was a series of three buildings. The firefighters saved two. On one building, the heat was so intense the front door melted, but the building survived. Five-gallon jugs of Therm Gel, some still full, were on the edge of the road. It was clear that officials prioritized homes over outbuildings. Only a couple of homeowners will be returning to everything untouched. A large home was unscathed, yet 30 feet away the remains of a station wagon told a story of heat approaching 1,600 degrees.

A resident had pulled some kayaks away from their house into a small glade, it was a lucky decision. The fire had burned every area around it, the ground blackened but the flames never reached two small watercraft. At another home, the remains of the kitchen were apparent by shattered pieces of dishes and crocks, and a few heavy metal pots that had survived. On the ground were stacks of rice paper-thin layers of ash, that disintegrated when you touched them.

The items that remained told the story of lost heirlooms and sudden evacuations. A pot still sat on a stove, almost all that remained in the charred foundations of a home. Laying on the back edge of the oven, a horseshoe that likely was hanging on the kitchen wall, that had dumped out all of its luck onto the lone pot.

In parts of Crescent Mills, California, the fire burned so hotly the forest floor and some of the tree snags were white. The ground was covered in a powdery ash a couple of inches deep. In these places, the fire would have been 2000 degrees F. At the base of a hill, the Crescent Hills Community Center laid in ruins. Two hoses were connected to an outside tap, one had melted and burned through. They told a story of a desperate attempt to save anything before the fire consumed the building. Yet with almost everything burned, a four-wheeler ATV under some trees appeared unscathed.

Up the hill on a dirt road, a small compound of cabins had survived. The fire had burned right to the edge of the property, charring the fence and a no trespassing sign. In the distance was a larger home, with an American flag waving in the wind. I rang a makeshift bell as a sign asked but no one answered. Deep holes were all around in the forest where stumps and roots had burned, collapsing the earth. Every step taken was methodical and planned. Underground, fires burning as high as 2000 degrees were coursing through the forest floor, and will continue to burn until the snows come this winter. One wrong step could result in horrible burns.

Further west near Twain, California, firefighter units from around the country were working collaboratively. Units from St. Helena, Beverly Hills, and Culver City were preparing for a potential defensive battle. The battalion commander from Culver City told me they were refilling the pumper truck from Beverly Hills with water, and setting up a defensive position in case they would be needed in the area. Less than a mile away, two fire units from Klamath Falls, Oregon, were also in position. Near the Twain General Store, fire trucks and other equipment moved through at a steady pace to take on diesel fuel and gasoline.

Along Highway 70 and Highway 89, red-stained trees and infrastructure showed where tankers had made airdrops of water and fire retardant earlier. There was no sound of aircraft today with the active fire 12 miles away to the east, and thick smoke making air operations challenging.

According to KPIX in San Francisco, firefighters were battling new downdrafts caused by thunderstorms increasing fire activity. Units are reinforcing tenuous fire lines in anticipation of a shift in the weather, that will bring with it extreme fire behavior.

As ash lightly falls from a silent orange sky, the air thick and stinging your eyes, an American flag waves over the burned-out remains of a house in Indian Falls. The long hot summer and years of drought continue, with the land waiting for the winter snows to bring final containment.