[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) The National Weather Service extended the Excessive Heat Warning for Western Washington through 9 PM Sunday as a record-breaking heatwave continues to bake the region.
On Tuesday, the temperature reached 94 degrees at Seatac Airport, breaking the previous record of 92. Wednesday’s high reached 91 degrees, and Thursday hit 94. Forecast models are coming into alignment that a 90-plus degree day on Sunday is likely. If the region reaches the mark, it would be the first six-day streak of temperatures 90 or above in modern history.
Friday
Friday is starting off two degrees warmer than the low on Thursday. High temperatures will be 93 to 97 degrees. The dew point at Seatac is rising indicating it will feel more humid than earlier in the week, making today feel more oppressive.
Friday Night
Winds will pick up overnight, with a light breeze providing some relief. Nighttime lows will be 60 to 64.
Saturday
Bright sun and searing temperatures will bake the area for a fifth day. Highs will reach 93 to 97 in the Bellevue-Kirkland-Woodinville area with almost no wind.
Saturday Night
A shift to a more unsettled pattern won’t start on Saturday night, with skies remaining mostly clear. Nighttime lows will be 59 to 63.
Sunday
Clouds won’t roll in with a marine layer push until early on Monday. The region has a very realistic chance of experiencing six days of 90 degrees or hotter in a row since weather records have been kept in Seattle – the Federal Building or Seatac Airport.
High temperatures will be 90 to 94 degrees.
Monday Outlook
A more normal weather pattern will return next week, with a strong marine layer pushing into the region as the thermal trough and the high pressure system slide away. Monday looks to be party to mostly cloudy, with a high of 79 to 83. There will be an offshore flow with winds from 8 to 12 MPH, providing much needed relief.
Due to our unseasonably cold spring and deep snowpack, area rivers, streams, and lakes remain very cold. It is possible to get hypothermia, even on a 90-degree day. Stream flow is also high, so tubers and kayakers should use caution. Currents are faster than usual. Never swim, tube, or boat near downed trees or low head dams; it is very dangerous.
Do not leave pets or children in your car, even for “just a minute.” Temperatures can soar to over 110 degrees in less than 10 minutes, leading to heat stroke or worse.
Regrettably, due to the current COVID BA.5 surge and community spread of monkeypox, people seeking cooler indoor spaces should consider wearing a tight fighting N-95 mask.
Ukrainian government and military leaders have acknowledged that a counteroffensive in the Kherson oblast has started, and evidence is mounting that the operation is gaining momentum. The dictionary defines counteroffensive as “an attack made in response to one from an enemy, typically on a large scale and for a prolonged period.”
For many, the word counteroffensive conjures up images from World War II and the Battle of the Bulge in the Ardennes or the Red Army’s response to Germany’s Operation Bagration near Minsk. Prepare to be disappointed for those expecting massive formations of troops and tanks rushing across the steppe supported by ferocious artillery barrages. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson will more closely resemble the United States World War II island hopping campaign in the Pacific than the plains of Eastern Europe or the deserts of Iraq during the first Gulf War.
Beyond Kherson city, most of the oblast west of the Dnipro River is sparsely populated. Small villages dot wheat fields across a flat landscape similar to rural Kansas or Nebraska in the United States. Settlements are spread out as much as 10 to 12 kilometers apart with almost no natural defenses or obstacles. Tree-lined dirt roads offer some cover, but the routes are obvious and easily observed. This area is tank country, and the terrain had Cold War strategic planners at the Pentagon and the Kremlin fretting during the last century. However, both belligerents have a problem.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine have many tanks to spare in a broad advance across the region. Ukrainian forces are reportedly training tank brigades for a future initiative and continue to have limited resources. Russia has lost up to a third of its active main battle tank resources in five months and was forced to dip into reserves of Cold War-era T-62 and T-80BV tanks to fill the gap. Armor is armor, but the main gun on the T-62 has a range of 1,700 meters, making it particularly vulnerable in a tank-on-tank battle and against light infantry weapons with greater range.
Unlike the Ardennes, Minsk, or the desert southeast of Baghdad, militaries worldwide have ready access to consumer, commercial, and military drones that can monitor troop movements and concentrations in real-time. There aren’t any widescale surprise attacks that will or can happen in Kherson. Without an overwhelming number of tanks, drone-directed artillery fire will shred company-sized formations as they attempt to traverse open areas.
The United States Pacific campaign used an island hopping strategy in World War II to defeat Japan. After the battle of Midway, Japanese forces were operating defensively as the United States Navy and Marines ground down island garrisons. Part of the strategy was to capture strategic locations where further attacks could be launched while bypassing other islands with less strategic value. In Kherson, the wheat fields are oceans, villages are islands, patrols and small groups of armor are destroyers and submarines, drones are the aircraft and the infamous kamikazes, and artillery positions are battleships.
Ukraine has started its first island hopping campaign, with Vysokopillya as Guadacanal and Kherson as Okinawa. Continuing with the Gudacanal analogy, Potomkyne is Florida Island, and Olhyne is Savo. Ukrainian forces are fighting for control of Arkhanhelske and are advancing on Novopetrivka. To supply the Russian troops still in Vysokopillya, it is 11 kilometers across roadless open wheat fields to Veremiivka, where Ukraine artillery holds fire control.
The “battleships” (artillery) make the supply efforts dangerous across an open sea of wheat. Ukrainian forces are preparing for a broader “beach landing” on the city limits of Vysokopillya while “destroyers and submarines (tanks and light infantry) block a potential retreat route toward Novopetrivka. Russian troops are still clinging to the “island” of Arkhanhelske. The Russian “battleships” (artillery) can’t redeploy to concentrate on Vysokopillya and stem the advancing “naval convoys” closing in.
Because neither belligerent can develop air supremacy and lack enough tanks and, more importantly, trained tank crews, this scenario will play out repeatedly in the coming months. Ukrainian military leaders will consider the strategic value of each settlement between Vysokopillya and Kherson and whether there is a need to secure the next “island,” or bypass it and let a lack of supplies wither away Russian garrisons trapped in small villages.
Part of that assessment will almost certainly be how many “battleships” (artillery) are around each settlement and the risk versus reward of an attempted beach landing. Ukraine will not leave any force behind the main line of conflict that would pose a serious risk to supply lines or the offensive itself. However, small defenses in a town that once housed less than 100 people could be a distraction to the primary goal.
Just like in the Pacific theater of World War II, the offensive will start slowly. As Ukraine advances further, if they employ a solid strategy and manage its resources, capabilities will increase as more firepower is concentrated on a shrinking front. Russian forces west of the Dnipro also have the same problem as Imperial Japan.
In 1941 the Japanese Imperial Army had 1.7 million soldiers compared to the United States with 200,000. By the war’s end, the Allied forces in the Pacific had swelled to 4 million troops. At the same time, Japan was reduced to one-million soldiers, primarily old and young conscripts in territorial guard units preparing to defend the main island.
By 1943, Japan was suffering from widescale supply issues. Not much press or pages within history books have discussed United States submarines’ roles in the Pacific, but supply interdiction became an untenable problem. Ukraine is vigorously concentrating on disrupting Russian supply lines throughout and into Kherson, and it is starting to have an impact.
In comparison, allied forces only got stronger through more manpower, increased weapons output, technological improvements, cracking Japanese codes, the implementation of combined arms combat tactics, and the ability to be constantly supplied. Japan’s response to these deficiencies was to waste light infantry and pilots and their supporting equipment with no meaningful way to replace the losses. While these tactics caused some of the worst casualty rates in World War II, they only delayed the inevitable.
The destruction of two of the three bridges across the Dnipro and severely damaging the third have created a similar situation in Kherson. The makeshift ferry that’s been established adjacent to the destroyed Antonovskiyy Bridge isn’t capable of carrying enough rations to feed the garrison of 15,000 Russian troops in Kherson city. Munitions such as TELAR, Grad, and Smerch rockets will be even more challenging to move in significant quantites, let alone diesel fuel and gasoline for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and trucks. For now, Russia has no meaningful way to replace the loss of armored vehicles or larger artillery pieces.
Airlift by helicopter can manage small arms ammunition, potable water, and food. But artillery rounds, rockets, and fuel are likely out of reach. Ukraine holds air dominance in the region, which will make widescale Russian resupply flights even risker.
Both belligerents are deficient in main battle tanks. However, Russia is having a more challenging time replacing losses, and the replacement vehicles are older weapons systems with inferior armor, sites, and main guns. Ukraine has commitments from allied partners to provide up to 600 more main battle tanks. While not as modern as the Russian T-90 or American M1A2 Abrahams, the upgraded T-72 variants promised are still capable of outgunning the T-62 and have better technology than the T-80BV.
For Ukraine, bringing new equipment to the front is only harassed by imprecise Russian long-range missiles and airstrikes closer to the line of conflict. If Russia plans to ferry across a tank, it requires three support trucks and one fuel truck. Additionally, those trucks need somewhere to go to collect ammunition, rations, potable water, field medical supplies, and fuel. For Russia to do it right, the four pontoon ferry can only haul four tanks a trip, with supporting vehicles and supplies. Even then, resupply will take days, if not weeks, at four pontoons at a time.
Unless Russia can reestablish the bridges across the Dnipro and regain fire control, these logistical problems will only worsen. As Ukraine hops from each island in the wheat fields, the supply situation will continue to degrade, and like the Pacific Campaign of World War II, the advances will start to accelerate.
This process will take months, and when mud season starts in September or early October, travel will be limited to established improved roads until the snow and freezing temperatures come. By then, Russian forces awaiting their fight in towns and villages closer to Kherson will deal with supply shortages and the difficult choice between fighting to the death, attempting to break out and retreat to the next village across kilometers of open terrain, or surrendering. Ukrainian commanders will have to manage the losses of troops and equipment. Larger villages and towns, the ones most likely required for the “island hopping” campaign to succeed, will have strong defensive positions established and the benefit of firing on advancing forces that have to move in the open. Like beach landings in the Pacific, destroyers, battleships, and aircraft can only provide so much cover for advancing troops moving to the edge of established defenses. In 2022, that would be tanks, artillery, MLRS, and drones.
The counteroffensive to secure the western third of the Kherson oblast has started, but there are a lot of islands to hop across a sea of wheat before Kherson city is reached. The first few advances will take time and result in heavy losses for both sides. Eventually, Russian defenses will reach a culmination point and start to collapse.
[WASHINGTON] – (MTN) The Washington State Ferry boat Cathlamet had a hard landing at the Fauntleroy ferry terminal in West Seattle, causing significant damage to the vessel and ferry terminal infrastructure.
The 7:55 a.m. sailing of the Cathlamet left Vashon Island and, on its approach to Fauntleroy around 8:15 a.m., it struck a group of pilings meant to protect the ferry dock and help stabilize the ferry while loading and unloading. The structure is called a dolphin. Photos from the terminal showed moderate damage to the structure, with at least two metal pilings buckled and the top structure badly damaged.
The impact caused significant damage to the superstructure, tearing the metal open like a can opener between the first and second car decks. One of the pickle forks, a favorite viewing point for ferry riders, was destroyed. Washington State Ferries reported that several cars were damaged due to the incident. There were no reports that the Cathlamet was in danger of sinking, and there were no reports of fuel leaks or other environmental impacts.
The Fauntleroy ferry terminal is closed until further notice while the United States Coast Guard conducts an investigation. Seattle police have blocked road access to the ferry terminal and are turning away traffic.
After the investigation into the incident is completed, the ship and ferry terminal infrastructure will be inspected. It is unclear when the ferry terminal will reopen. It is unlikely the Cathlamet can be quickly returned to service.
July 28, 2022 – Social media photo – photo credit – Timothy Couch
The WSF reported they were working with the Port of Seattle, King County Metro, and Kitsap Transit to find a solution to get commuters home this evening. Alternative service from the Seattle area to Vashon Island has not been established yet. The Chetzemoka will operate from Point Defiance in Tacoma at 12:35 p.m. daily in response to the incident. Normally, the route only operates Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) The National Weather Service extended the Excessive Heat Warning for Western Washington through 9 PM Saturday as a record breaking heatwave continues to bake the region.
On Tuesday the temperature reached 94 degrees at Seatac Airport, breaking the previous record of 92. Wednesday’s high reached 91 degrees. Forecast models are hinting that a high of 90 degrees on Sunday is within reach. If that were to happen, it would be the first six day streak of temperatures 90 or above in modern history.
A thermal trough, high pressure, and light winds have come together to send temperatures west of the Cascades into the 90s and over 100 degrees in the eastern part of the state. Humidity has been a little lower than the initial forecast models, and overnight temperatures have been a few degrees cooler adding a small amount of relief in the morning hours.
Thursday
Clear sunny skies with a light wind from the northwest and north will keep the heat going. The high will reach 89 to 93 degrees through the Bellevue-Kirkland-Woodinville area. Downtown Bellevue and Totem Lake will be the hot spots, while higher spots like Finn Hill and Houghton, as well as along the water, will be a touch cooler.
Thursday Night
Temperatures will stay above 70 until 1 AM to 3 AM, dropping to 6 to 64 degrees close to dawn.
Friday
Friday will be hotter as heat remains entrenched over the region. High temperatures will be 93 to 97 degrees. The models are suggesting that it may be a bit more humid than the previous days, adding a layer of awful for those who don’t have air conditioning.
Friday Night
Winds will pick up overnight, with a light breeze potentially pulling in some marine air. Temperatures will be closer to fine with lows dipping to 60 to 64 degrees around sunrise.
Saturday
Appears to be a near copy of Friday, with just a little less humidity. High temperatures will be 93 to 97 degrees.
Saturday Night
Some clouds start to move in, but not enough to make it mostly or totally cloudy. Lows will be 61 to 65.
Sunday Outlook
Clouds start to move in on Sunday and depending on when they arrive and thicken up will have a significant impact on the high temperature. If they arrive earlier in the day, highs will moderate and be between 85 and 89 degrees. If the clouds arrive later in the day, highs will reach 89 to 93.
Due to our unseasonably cold spring and deep snowpack, area rivers, streams, and lakes remain very cold. It is possible to get hypothermia, even on a 90-degree day. Stream flow is also high, so tubers and kayakers should use caution. Currents are faster than usual. Never swim, tube, or boat near downed trees or low head dams, it is very dangerous.
Do not leave pets or children in your car, even for “just a minute.” Temperatures can soar to over 110 degrees in less than 10 minutes, leading to heat stroke or worse.
Regrettably, due to the current COVID BA.5 surge and community spread of monkeypox, people seeking cooler indoor spaces should consider wearing a tight fighting N-95 mask.
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for Western Washington from noon Tuesday to 9 PM Friday for high temperatures over 90 degrees and lows in the mid-60s.
A thermal trough, high pressure, and light winds have come together to send temperatures west of the Cascades into the 90s and over 100 degrees in the eastern part of the state. Temperatures aren’t being pushed up from an on-shore flow off the east slopes, so humidity will be high in Puget Sound, with dew points in the mid-60s through Friday, making it feel hotter than it is.
Tuesday
Clear sunny skies with a light wind from the north and northeast will send temperatures soaring. The high will reach 92 to 96 degrees through the Bellevue-Kirkland-Woodinville area. Downtown Bellevue and Totem Lake will be the hot spots, while higher spots like Finn Hill and Houghton, as well as along the water, will be a touch cooler. The dew point will be in the mid-60s, making it feel like it is 94 to 99 degrees.
Tuesday Night
Temperatures will stay above 80 until 11 PM to midnight and won’t drop below 70 until close to dawn. Lows for the Bellevue-Kirkland-Woodinville area will be 63 to 66.
Wednesday
Hump day looks to be almost identical to Tuesday, with clear skies and little wind. High temperatures will be 93 to 97 degrees. The humidity will make it feel like it is 94 to 99 degrees. There is a small chance for a slight onshore flow to form late in the day. That will drop the dew point. However, it will also hold the temperatures higher later in the day.
Wednesday Night
Temperatures will hold above 70 degrees well into the night, dropping below 70 between 2 AM and 4 AM. Lows will be 63 to 65 around sunrise.
Thursday
The cooler start means a slightly cooler day ahead, but it won’t be much of an improvement. High temperatures will reach 92 to 96 degrees, with the dew point still holding in the mid-60s. It will feel like 93 to 98.
Thursday Night
Right now, this appears to be the most uncomfortable night of the week. Lows will be 64 to 67, with humidity between 80% to 90%. Temperatures won’t drop below 70 degrees until 2 AM to 4 AM.
Friday
On Friday, the thermal trough will start to move, and the high-pressure area will slide a bit more to the east. High temperatures will reach 92 to 95 degrees. It will still feel like it is 94 to 97 degrees, but the shifting weather pattern will cause the humidity level to decrease by sunset.
Friday Night
Temperatures will moderate slightly, but it still won’t fall below 70 degrees until 1 AM to 3 AM. There will be little wind, and the humidity will still be high, with lows falling to 63 to 65 degrees.
Saturday
Saturday could be the day we tie a weather record of five days in a row over 90 degrees. High temperatures will be 89 to 93 degrees under clear skies. The dew point will be between 58 and 61 degrees, given the area the only day that will feel like a “normal” 90-degree day in Western Washington.
The Week Ahead
Sunday looks cooler, but temperatures will still reach 84 to 87, and the overnight lows will still be above 60. By the start of next week, it appears we’ll return to a normal weather pattern of daytime temperatures in the 70s and nighttime temperatures in the high 50s.
Due to our unseasonably cold spring and deep snowpack, area rivers, streams, and lakes remain very cold. It is possible to get hypothermia, even on a 90-degree day. Stream flow is also high, so tubers and kayakers should use caution. Currents are faster than usual. Never swim, tube, or boat near downed trees or low head dams, it is very dangerous.
Do not leave pets or children in your car, even for “just a minute.” Temperatures can soar to over 110 degrees in less than 10 minutes, leading to heat stroke or worse.
Regrettably, due to the current COVID BA.5 surge and community spread of monkeypox, people seeking cooler indoor spaces should consider wearing a tight fighting N-95 mask.
[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – MTN The average summer Western Washington has been enjoying is about to heat up, with a four-day streak of 90-plus degree weather ahead. A thermal trough, high pressure, and light winds will combine to create a classic Washington summer heat wave.
After 2021, the words “heat wave” may bring back bad memories of three days in a row over 100 degrees – it won’t be that hot. Daytime temperatures will cross 90 degrees Tuesday through Friday, while lows will likely stay in the high 60s. Temperatures won’t drop below 70 until close to sunrise, so there won’t be much overnight relief from the heat.
Sunday
A perfect late-July day awaits the Bellevue-Kirkland-Woodinville area. Skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures between 80 to 84. Some clouds will start to roll in close to sunset.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy skies with a light breeze from the northeast with a low of 58 to 61 degrees – perfect sleeping weather.
Monday
It warms up a little more, but the area isn’t roasting yet. Morning clouds will burn off, and the high temperatures will reach 84 to 88 degrees.
Monday Night
High pressure will slide down from British Columbia to our north, and a thermal trough will form overnight. Overnight temperatures will fall to 62 to 64 degrees. On Tuesday, things start to heat up.
Tuesday
Clear sunny skies with a light wind from the north and northeast will send temperatures soaring. The high will reach 90 to 93 degrees through the Bellevue-Kirkland-Woodinville area. Downtown Bellevue and Totem Lake will be the hot spots, while Finn Hill and right along the water might not quite get to 90.
Tuesday Night
Temperatures will stay well into the 70s past midnight before falling to 65 to 67 degrees close to sunrise. Thee won’t be much of a breeze to offer any relief.
Wednesday
The week’s hottest day will get even warmer thanks to a weak easterly flow off the Cascades. High temperatures will be 92 to 96 under clear skies.
Wednesday Night
Temperatures once again will stay well past 70 overnight, falling to 65 to 68 degrees close to sunrise. It will be almost windless, so make sure those fans are ready.
Rest of the Week
On Thursday and Friday, the high-pressure center starts to drift slowly, moderating temperatures a little bit. it is too far out to make an accurate forecast, but models support temperatures reaching 90 to 94 on both days, with lows at night falling to 64 to 67. Friday night might be a little cooler as the high-pressure area starts to move out of our region and the thermal trough breaks up.
Due to our unseasonably cold spring and deep snowpack, area rivers, streams, and lakes remain very cold. It is possible to get hypothermia, even on a 90-degree day. Stream flow is also high, so tubers and kayakers should use caution. Currents are faster than usual. Never swim, tube, or boat near downed trees or low head dams, it is very dangerous.
Do not leave pets or children in your car, even for “just a minute.” Temperatures can soar to over 110 degrees in less than 10 minutes, leading to heat stroke or worse.
If local and county officials believe that there is a heat emergency, cooling centers will be opened. King County, Woodinville, and Kirkland opened cooling centers last year, while Bellevue partnered with area businesses.
Regrettably, due to the current COVID BA.5 surge and community spread of monkeypox, people seeking cooler indoor spaces should consider wearing a tight fighting N-95 mask.
[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,068 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.
Less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations to permit grain exports from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port, Port of Odesa, and Pivdennyi [South] Port, Kalibr cruise missiles launched by the Russian Black Sea fleet slammed into the Port of Odesa.
Russia and Ukraine did not sign an agreement between the two nations, instead signing separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations, which would permit Ukraine to export up to 20 million tons of grain over the next 120 days. The agreement did not specify that Russia could not attack Ukrainian ports explicitly. However, with continued attacks, civilian port operations with cargo ships entering and exiting will be impossible.
Insurance rates for cargo vessels operating in the Black Sea have already skyrocketed, with over a dozen commercial vessels seized, bombed, or hit by Russian missiles since February 25 and one bulk carrier striking a mine.
Luhansk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military head, reported that Ukraine still controls two settlements in the Luhansk Oblast.
Northeast Donetsk – Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Ivano-Daryivka through Spirne and were unsuccessful.
Russian forces fired artillery at civilians, civilian infrastructure, and Ukrainian military positions in Siversk, Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Spirne. The Russian air force also attacked Sprine.
Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.
Bakhmut – Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group made small advances into the southern part of Pokrovske. Limited fighting occurred near the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant.
Artillery was fired on Bakhmut, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Pokrovske, and Vesela Dolyna.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Vodyane from Vesele.
HIMARS rockets struck an ammunition depot within the machinery plant in Russian-controlled Horlivka, northeast of Donetsk. Secondary explosions thundered across the city as the ammunition stored in the factory started to cook off.
In the south Donbas, there were artillery exchanges from Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kherson – Russian state media claims Ukraine attacked the Antonovskiy Bridge for the third time, but there are no photos or videos to support the reports. Russian officials report they will not attempt to repair the bridge. Instead, they plan to build a pontoon bridge to the south. The bridge is reported to be severely damaged and will take too long to repair.
Ukraine, likely using HIMARS rockets, moderately damaged the Russian-controlled Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River. The bridge is a critical water crossing on the 140-kilometer detour route for Russian armor and military supplies after the Antonovskiy Bridge was damaged in attacks earlier this week. Without the crossing, a large region of Russia-controlled Kherson will be cutoff from overland supply routes
Multiple reports are quoting different sources that up to 2,000 Russian troops are partially encircled in Vysokopillya.
Presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych provided additional details during a television interview, which clarified the situation more. Arestovych reported that Russian forces are 75% encircled in Vysokopillya. On July 21, Russian forces attempted a breakout by heading south through the opening in the salient but were pushed back by Ukrainian artillery fire.
Arestovuch reported they are two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) trapped, with an estimated 1,000 troops blocked from leaving the town. He said that Ukraine would not offer a green corridor for evacuation but would likely demand their surrender.
Russian forces captured Oleksandrivka [Kherson] on the banks of the Dnipro River.
There are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed the T-2207 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) south of Davydiv Brid.
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Zaporizhia – A video showed Russian tent barracks on the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar being attacked by kamikaze drones. The tents were located about 300 meters from the reactor blocks. Using a nuclear power plant for barracks and as a firebase to launch artillery and rockets represents a break from accepted military protocol, which considers nuclear power plants “no go” zones. Three Russian soldiers were killed and nine wounded in the attack. Additionally, a Grad Mulitple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which was parked between two cooling towers for the plant, was damaged in the attack. The video and pictures published after the strike show that no part of the nuclear power plant was damaged.
Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted a ground assault on Udy and there were skirmishes in Tsupivka and Dementiivka.
Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.
Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.
Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis. In Prydonetske, Ukrainian artillery destroyed an entire artillery company, including eight 152mm towed howitzers, ammunition, and command and control. Prydonetske is located east of Izyum in the area Russians call “Sherwood forest.”
Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyginsk and Krasnopil were shelled.
Odesa – Four Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Russian Black Sea Fleet targeted the Port of Odesa, with two striking the facility. Serhii Bratchuk, an Odesa Military administration spokesperson, said two missiles hit the port, and Ukraine’s air defense shot down two. The port suffered moderate damage, and a fire broke out, but the missiles missed the grain silos. The attack came less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to provide safe corridors for grain exports. The reaction from officials was swift and furious.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres “unequivocally” condemned the attack through a spokesperson.
Secretary-General @antonioguterres unequivocally condemns reported strikes today in the Ukrainian port of Odesa.
Full implementation of the commitments made yesterday by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Turkey is imperative: https://t.co/naL2UnYJ0R
“Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “This indicates only one thing: no matter what Russia says and promises, it will find ways how not to fulfill it. Geopolitically, with weapons, bloody or not, but it has several vectors, [this is] how it always acts.”
“That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added on Twitter. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said the bloc “strongly condemns” the attack.
Yesterday, #Istanbul agreement on Ukrainian grain exports via Black Sea ports, facilitated by UN and Turkish efforts, was reached.
Today, Russian missiles hit port of Odesa.
That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia. The world must help Ukraine fight the aggressor.
People’s Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko wrote on Telegram, “There is a fire in the port of Odesa. Here is a grain corridor for you. These bastards are signing contracts with one hand and sending missiles with the other.”
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Nikolenko wrote, “It took less than 24 hours for the Russian Federation to launch a missile strike on the territory of the city of Odesa to question the agreement, and the promises it made to the UN and Turkey in the document signed yesterday in Istanbul.”
“The Russian missile is Vladimir Putin spitting in the face of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, who made a huge effort to reach the deal, and to whom Ukraine is grateful.”
The US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget A. Brink, called the Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa “outrageous,” writing, “Russia strikes the port city of Odesa less than 24 hours after signing an agreement to allow shipments of agricultural exports. The Kremlin continues to weaponize food. Russia must be held to account.”.
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Saturday that Russia claimed it had “nothing to do” with the strikes.
“It really concerned us that such an event happened after we signed the deal on grain shipments. We are disturbed as well. But we continue to fulfill our responsibilities about this agreement, and we also expressed in our meetings that we are in favor of the parties to continue their cooperation here calmly and patiently,” said Akar.
Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was hit with up to 13 Russian cruise missiles, causing significant damage, killing three and wounding nine. The attack was a joint operation between the Russian air force and navy, with five Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and eight Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet hitting the region. Cruise missiles also slammed into the railroad facilities at Ukrzaliznytsia. An electrical substation was also targeted, knocking out electrical power in parts of the oblast capital of Kropyvnytskyi.
Daily Assessment
Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
Ground offensives by Russian forces have become fewer and smaller a week after the “operational pause” was declared over.
It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.
To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.
[Kirkland, Wash.] – MTN – Kirkland will be holding its annual household item recycling event on July 23, Saturday, from 9:00 AM to 3:00 PM at the Lake Washington Institute for Technology, 11605 132nd Ave NE.
The annual event enables Kirkland residents to clear their garages and closets of unwanted items in a sustainable way. Items that will be accepted this year include:
Clothing and linens in any condition except wet
Electronics including LCD and plasma TVs and monitors, computers, laptops, printers, cell phones, keyboards, mice, microwaves, audio/visual equipment such as cameras, DVD players and satellite receivers, holiday lights, wires, and cables
Paper for shredding with a limit of one medium size box per household
Recycling material will be accepted until 3 PM or until the collection vehicles become full. In previous years, demand for recycling filled up the trucks before the planned end time, so residents are advised to come in the morning.
Some household items accepted in previous years won’t be accepted this year.
Not Accepted
Styrofoam – residents can throw it out with weekly trash collection or bring it to the Shoreline or Kent transfer stations
Older style CRT computer monitors and TVs
No appliances expect microwaves
No paint or other hazardous materials
No batteries, fluorescent bulbs, or individual light bulbs (holiday lights will be accepted)
Data experts recommend removing the hard drives before donating if you plan to drop off computers or laptops for recycling. Reformatting a hard drive doesn’t “wipe” it clean, the old data is still accessible and easily recovered. Instructions on how to remove a hard drive from your computer can be found on YouTube and other social media sites by searching for the computer maker and model number.
To properly dispose of a hard drive, it is recommended to drill multiple holes through the drive itself or smash it until the platters are physically broken inside. Solid state hard drives can be drilled through, broken into pieces, and disposed of over several trash collections.
Cell phones should be factory reset and the SIM and external memory cards removed.
Residents are encouraged to bring shredding material even if they have a home shredder. Shredded paper is no longer accepted by home recycling and must be put in the trash.
[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,067 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.
Luhansk – Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are well entrenched on the ridges west of the plant, enabling effective artillery fire in the valley that has to be crossed to reach Verkhnokamyanske.
Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor, reported that artillery fire has intensified, and Russian forces are throwing their tank reserves into battle in an attempt to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.
Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, likely from Zolotarivka, and were unsuccessful.
Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka. The platoon-sized units suffered heavy losses and retreated to previously established defensive lines.
Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.
Bakhmut – Near Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to advance on Ukrainian positions in Stryapivka, supported by the Russian air force. They were unsuccessful.
Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, but Russian attacks have been getting smaller over the last two weeks. Under-staffed platoons attempted to advance on Vershyna and the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant from Myronivka. Neither attack was successful and Russian forces suffered heavy losses.
A second advance attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of Novoluhanske and Dolomitne and was also unsuccessful, with poorly trained and under-staffed platoons suffering heavy losses.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kherson – In Kherson, Russian forces are attempting to stop the flow of Ukrainian forces over the Inhulets River and have been unsuccessful. Russian forces advanced from Mala Seidemynukha toward Andriivka and were pushed back.
Russian forces also advanced from Davydiv Brid toward Bilohirka and were unsuccessful.
There are social media reports that Russian forces are encircled in Vysokopillya. Our team is surprised there is still a sizeable Russian presence in the settlement. We had determined that continued occupation was untenable in late June due. However, we don’t see how other analysts concluded that there is an encirclement of Russian troops in Vysokopillya.
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Dnipropetrovsk – Nikopol was attacked with rockets fired by MLRS for the fourth day in a row. Up to 100 rockets hit the city, causing widespread damage and killing one person. Eleven homes were damaged, along with the railroad line that serves the city, natural gas, and water lines.
Kharkiv – Russian troops attempted to advance on Pytomnyk for the second day in a row. The advance was unsuccessful. The settlements of Udy, Zolochiv, Slatyne, Ruska Lozova, Petrivka, Dementiivka, Velyka Babka, and Rubizhne [Kharkiv] were hit by artillery.
Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.
Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.
Izyum – Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis.
Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Bilopol, Znob-Novogorod, and Shalyginsk were hit by mortar fire and self-propelled grenades from Russian forces firing from across the international border. There were no injuries or damage reported.
Daily Assessment
Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine. The lack of combat activity is significant.
Russian forces have been incapable of holding territorial gains made after July 4 and are consistently pushed back within one to seven days of making any new advances.
It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.
To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.
[Albany, N.Y.] – MTN The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) and the Rockland County Department of Health reported the first case of community transmission polio since 1979 in the United States, hospitalizing a New York state resident.
The person was identified as a young adult with no travel history outside of the United States and was hospitalized with paralytic polio. The individual has been released from the hospital, but officials did not indicate if they are experiencing long-term complications.
The NYSDOH reported the Centers for Disease Control sequenced the virus infecting the person and identified it as the Sabin type 2 virus. “This is indicative of a transmission chain from an individual who received the oral polio vaccine, which is no longer authorized or administered in the U.S.,” the official stated.
“This suggests that the virus may have originated in a location outside of the U.S. where the oral polio vaccine is administered since…strains cannot emerge from inactivated vaccines.”
Polio still exists in several countries, and the U.S. Department of Defense and the CDC recommend a poliovirus booster for anyone traveling to those regions. Polio is highly contagious, with 98% of cases presenting as asymptomatic.
Most people who become symptomatic get mild flu-like symptoms such as fatigue, fever, headache, stiffness, muscle pain, and vomiting. The poliomyelitis virus thrives in the gut, and it can take 30 days before an infected person become symptomatic. During the incubation period when someone is infected, the carrier is contagious. This creates silent community transmission that can rapidly spread. Transmission through common swimming areas and in warm, damp areas is enhanced. In the 1950s and 1960s, communities would close swimming pools and other common areas and go into lockdown to stop the spread.
In less than 2% of cases, poliomyelitis moves into the nervous system and spine, which can cause extreme weakness and paralysis, occasionally leading to death. Symptoms are worse for people who are older.
In 1953 over 30,000 Americans were hospitalized, and 3,200 died from a surge in polio cases, which led to the development of a vaccine that was hailed a miracle of science in 1955. Polio was declared eradicated in the United States in 1979, and the use of attenuated live virus vaccinations for poliomyelitis ended in 2000.
“Many of you may be too young to remember polio, but when I was growing up, this disease struck fear in families, including my own,” Rockland County Executive Ed Day said. “The fact that it is still around decades after the vaccine was created shows you just how relentless it is. Do the right thing for your child and the greater good of your community and have your child vaccinated now.”
The NYSDOH is coordinating with the Rockland County Department of Health and the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYCDOHMH) to continue the case investigation, proactively respond, and protect communities against the spread through urging vaccination, which this multi-agency, county-led effort will support.
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