All posts by David Obelcz

National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine devastates Russian positions in Kherson using HIMARS – July 19, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,064 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui ordered Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov to prioritize destroying Ukrainian artillery and “long-range missile” systems as NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) wreak havoc on Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) and logistics. With Russian forces losing ground north of Slovyansk and suffering from Special Operation Forces (SOF) and artillery attacks in the forests west of Izyum, Shogui had indicated that Slovyansk was not the next target for the Russian military. It is more likely that Siversk and Bakhmut in the northeastern part of the Donetsk oblast are where Russia will focus next.

Luhansk – In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Zolotarivka area toward Verknokamyanske, Serebryanka, and Bilhorivka and were unsuccessful. Russian armor remains pinned at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Berestove or Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and held their positions near Spirne. They relied on artillery, rocket fire from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and air strikes.

In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Bakhmut – The most intense fighting continues to be in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant. Russian forces tried to advance from Myronivka toward the power plant and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Self-declared leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces had advanced north of Avdiivka, cutting off the GLOC to the embattled city and creating a partial encirclement. Russian FSB Colonel and former commander of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Girkin, dismissed the claim, noting that the DNR doesn’t have the combat power for an offensive of this scale.

Kherson – Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge with rockets fired from HIMARS, hitting the critical GLOC at least twice. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims five missiles were fired and four were impacted, but several videos showed three explosions on and just adjacent to the bridge. The bridge is the primary road connection across the Dnipro River, connecting the western and eastern regions of the Kherson oblast. The bridge was moderately damaged in the attack but is likely still serviceable.

HIMARS rockets hit an ammunition depot in Raiske, west of Nova Khakovka, producing secondary explosions. A second HIMARS strike destroyed a Russian barracks and logistics center near the hydroelectric plant on the bank of the Dnipro River. Another Russian ammunition depot in Beryslav on the north bank of the Dnipro River was also destroyed.

Operational Command South reported that Russian positions in Snihurivka were hit by an air strike, destroying an ammunition depot.

There was heavy fighting in Arkhanhelske, with Pro-Russian accounts reporting Ukraine had almost taken full control of the settlement.

Dnipropetrovsk – Dmytro Orlov, the exiled mayor of Enerhodar, reported that nine Russian soldiers stationed at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had been hospitalized after an “incident,” and several others had died. The European Commission Joint Research Center Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring map showed that radiation levels were normal across Ukraine.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian Armed Forces SOF raided Dementiivka north of Kharkiv, pushing Russian forces out of the settlement, killing 36 soldiers and capturing one. Ukrainian military leaders claim they captured the Russian unit commander with the Northern Fleet Russian Navy naval infantry.

In the settlement of Chuhuiv southeast of Kharkiv, an apartment building was hit by a Russian missile. The village of Lebyazhe and the town of Pechenihy were shelled.

Izyum – Southwest of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed further back from Dibrovne to the southern edge of Sulyhivka and liberated Brazhkivka.

Odesa – Black Sea – Northwest of Odesa, the settlement of Dachne was hit by several Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea. Pro-Russian accounts claim the target was Ukrainian command and control and ammunition depot. There weren’t any secondary explosions from the strike. Pro-Russian account Rybar reported that a cruise missile also hit the already severely damaged and defunct Zatoka bridge. Officials in Odesa reported six were wounded but no fatalities.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces appear to be struggling to renew large-scale combat operations three days after the operational pause ended.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense is holding off on an offensive to capture Slovyansk after declaring it was a priority on March 25.
  3. Selecting Siversk and Bakhmut as the first targets for the renewed Russian offensives indicates that troop strength remains weak.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russian Su-34 shot down by ‘friendly fire’ – July 18, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,063 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui announced on July 15 that the operational pause by Russian forces was over. In the first 36 hours since the announcement, Ukraine had the quietest day on the battlefield since February 24. The Russia-Ukraine War is entering Phase 3, but it remains unclear what that will look like.

Luhansk – Russian troops remained pinned in Bilohorivka and the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Attempts to advance into Donetsk were thwarted in both directions.

Near Alchevsk, during a Ukrainian High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) attack, air defenses of the Luhansk People’s Republic accidentally targeted a Russian Su-34 generation 4.5 fighter aircraft, shooting the plane down. The airframe has been identified as number RF-95890, a Su-34M. The M variant is the most technologically advanced version of the Su-34. The pilot was able to eject, with Ukraine claiming they captured the pilot behind the line of conflict. The wreckage was still smoldering at sunrise.

Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces tried advancing “near” Hryhorivka and were unsuccessful. There was also a report of a probe toward Serebrianka, which was unsuccessful.

Additionally, there is continued fighting in the Spirne-Ivano-Daryivka area with no change in territorial control. Spirne remains a no man’s land.

Bakhmut – Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk Region Administrative and Military Head, reported that the next Russian objective is Bakhmut. Russian forces shelled and fired rockets from MLRS at Soledar, Bakhmut, and the surrounding villages.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces attempted to improve their positions in Novoluhanske and advance on the Vuldhar Power Plant. Neither attack was successful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic attempted to advance on Marinka. Fighting continued overnight, but Ukrainian forces beat back the Russia-backed militia.

Ukraine claims to have hit a Russian ammunition depot in Mykilske with HIMARS rockets. The depot was stored with ammonium nitrate fertilizer, creating a large shockwave and clouds of telltale orange smoke.

Pro-Russian social media accounts were reporting Ukraine had liberated Solodoke, south of Donetsk city.

Kherson – Ukraine hit two Russian ammunition depots in Nova Kakhovka using NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Operational Command South of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the air force attacked “troop concentrations” never Davydiv Brid.

Dnipropetrovsk – The city of Nikopol was hit with over 60 rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) across the Dnipro. Civilians and civilian infrastructure were targeted. The Russian Ministry of Defense set up artillery and MLRS firing positions in Enerhodar at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant.

Kharkiv – Northeast of Kharkiv, there were no ground attacks of significance from either belligerent. Russian forces had improved their position in Dementiivka on July 16, but were pushed back by Ukrainian territorial guard forces overnight.

Sumy – The settlements of Velikopysariv, Krasnopil, Khotyn, Bilopol, Shalygin, Novoslobid, Esman, and Seredino-Bud were shelled by artillery and rockets fired by MLRS from Russian positions across the international border. There were no reports of casualties.

Chernihiv – Twelve artillery shells hit the settlement of Snovsk in the Chernihiv oblast. There were no reports of injuries.

Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces made no attempts to advance on the line of conflict south of Izyum. Multiple reports indicated that Russian forces had lost control of Dibrovne.

Odesa – Black Sea – Serhiy Bratchuk, the adviser to the head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, reported that a majority of warships in the Black Sea Fleet had been relocated from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in Russia.

Beyond Ukraine – A Ukrainian An-12 cargo plane operated by the private company Meridian Air crashed in Greece. The plane had taken off from Serbia and was en route to Amman, Jordan, when it experienced a mid-air emergency. Witnesses said the plane caught fire and rapidly descended before crashing. All eight crew members were killed in the crash.

Daily Assessment

  1. It has been two days since the Kremlin announced the operational pause is over, and the operational tempo for ground combat remains low.
  2. Russian forces have increased the amount of artillery fire in the last 24 hours, but it remains far below the intensity of fire experienced in June 2022.
  3. We cannot confirm Governor Haidai’s statement that the next large offensive from Russian forces will be to secure Bakhmut. We believe that defending Kherson or securing Siversk will be the next major objective.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

Become a Patreon today!

National, Russia-Ukraine War

All quiet on all the fronts – July 17, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,062 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui announced on July 15 that the operational pause by Russian forces was over. In the first 36 hours since the announcement, Ukraine had the quietest day on the battlefield since February 24. The Russia-Ukraine War is entering Phase 3, but it remains unclear what that will look like.

Luhansk – Multiple videos and reports from Russian state media confirmed that Russian troops have not been able to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and hold new territory. Russian forces shelled the ridge between the refinery and Verkhnokamyanske on July 15 – 16, while Russian armored vehicles have been unable to advance across the Luhansk-Donetsk border without facing heavy artillery fire.

Fighting for control of Zolotarivka continued, and Ukrainian forces continued to hold Bilohorivka.

NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) was used to strike a Russian antiaircraft battery station at the trolley barn in Alchevsk, Luhansk, and a Russian command base.

Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported their positions were shelled in Hryhorivka, and Russian forces performed aerial reconnaissance on Serebryanka. Despite reports of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatists, their forces have not taken either settlement or advanced into Siversk.

Russian forces continue to fight for control of Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka. Two small reconnaissance in force groups attempted to move into Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful in securing the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway.

Bakhmut – Russian forces shelled or fired rockets from MLRS at Soledar, Pokrovske, and Bakhmut.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Fighting was limited to artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast.

Kherson – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka.

NATO-provided HIMARS rockets hit the Russian barracks in Lazurne, Kherson, on the coast of the Black Sea near Crimea.

Mykolaiv – Ten more missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv, likely S-300 antiaircraft missiles pressed into ground-to-ground service. There were reports of multiple fires but no additional information.

Sumy – The settlements of Hlukkhiv, Esman, Novoslobidske, Shalyhyne, Bilopillia, Khotin, and Krasnopillia were shelled by artillery and rockets fired by MLRS from Russian positions across the international border.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces made no attempts to advance on the line of conflict, relying on artillery fire and air strikes. It is the first time since April 17 that no attempted advances were reported.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Ukrainian forces were able to evacuate seven civilians from the Sviatohirsk Cave Monastery on the north bank of the Siverski Donets River. Up to 100 monks and 500 civilians that are pilgrims or those who sought sanctuary remain at the historic monastery.

Daily Assessment

  1. It remains unclear after the announcement that the operational pause is over what the Russian Ministry of Defense’s next move is – today was the quietest day since February 24.
  2. We believe the pause was too short and that Russian troops have not significantly restored combat power nor secured new gains in Luhansk.
  3. Pro-Russian accounts are now spinning the lack of progress along the Luhansk-Donetsk border to force Ukrainian troops to consolidate in Siversk and get them in a cauldron to be surrounded.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

Become a Patreon today!

BIPOC, Breaking News, Local, National

Man Who Allegedly Threatened U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal Released without Charges

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Brett Allen Forsell, 48, was released from King County Jail late on Wednesday without being criminally charged or having to post bond after the Seattle Police Department failed to file their findings of fact with King County Prosecutors for any alleged crime within the Constitutionally required 72 hours.

King County Prosecutors were expecting to receive the required paperwork from the SPD, but the paperwork was never submitted.

Within the Bill of Rights, the Fifth Amendment states, “No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury.” Two Supreme Court of the United States rulings, McNabb v. United States (1943) and Mallory v. United States (1957), created what many call the “72 hours rule.”

Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure Rule 5(a) states that defendants must be brought before the court “without delay,” which is defined as 48 to 72 hours. No time on Saturday, Sunday, or holidays counts toward the requirement to file charing papers with the court, and exceptions can be made if a judge isn’t available. In Washington, Rule 3.2.1 states, “Unless an information or indictment is filed or the affected person consents in writing or on the record in open court, an accused shall not be detained in jail or subjected to conditions of release for more than 72 hours.”

Forsell denies he threatened Jayapal, brandished a weapon, or made racist comments. SPD claims that a follow-up investigation supports the man’s version of events, but the investigation continues. Seattle Police did not respond at press time on why there was a discrepancy in the arresting officer’s report and the follow-up investigation.

The Seattle Police Department requested an extreme risk protection order be filed against Forsell, which will require him to give up all firearms prior to a review, typically 14 days after the court authorizes the protection order. Forsell’s weapons will be returned if the court determines that he isn’t an extreme risk. If Forsell does not show up for the hearing or the court determines he is an extreme risk, the order is automatically extended to one year.

Forsell admitted to police that he had been driving past Jayapal’s house multiple times over the week before his arrest, yelling obscenities and taunts.

King County Prosecutor’s Office spokesperson Casey McNerthey released a statement.

“The recent incident outside Rep. Pramila Jayapal’s Seattle home is disturbing and unacceptable. In a time of increased political violence, security concerns against any elected official should be taken seriously.”

“The suspect’s alleged language and actions, coupled with his possession of a concealed weapon, deserve the full attention of the justice system. Presently, the investigation is ongoing, and our office is working with police investigators to make sure we understand the full extent of the suspect’s actions to build the strongest case possible.”

On July 9, Seattle police reported they were called to Jayapal’s home after multiple reports of a person driving by her home and yelling obscene and racist statements. A neighbor also called 911 reporting that someone may have fired a “pellet gun,” displaying a weapon.

Forsell was arrested in the middle of the street, possessing a handgun within his waistband. A witness told investigators they heard Forsell yelling, “Go back to India,” and “I’m going to kill you,” driving by the congressperson’s house three times.

Jayapal is the first Indian-American woman elected to the House of Representatives and heads the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Breaking News, Health and Lifestyle, Local

COVID Variant BA.5 is Becoming the New Dominate Strain in Washington

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Health officials and epidemiologists are sounding the alarm about the latest COVID variants, BA.4 and BA.5, spreading across the United States and quietly driving up hospitalizations at an alarming rate.

COVID BA.5, and its close cousin BA.4, not only share mutations with the highly infectious original Omicron strain but has some of the mutations that caused the Delta variant to attack the deep lung tissues and additional adaptations that escape an immune response, including memory T cells. Data out of South Africa for BA.4 showed the R0, a measure of how easily a contagious disease can spread, was 18.6, with a real-world R0 of 10.0 to 12.0.

Previous variants including the original Omicron strains required 15 to 60 minutes of close contact to build up a viral load to cause an infection. The new strains, which represent 40% of new cases in Washington state according to the University of Washington Virology Lab, can be passed along through casual contact. Although masks are not required by regulations anywhere in the United States, healthcare professionals are urging people to mask up again. Including those who had previous infections and the vaccinated.

The current vaccinations are based on the original strain of COVID, which has since mutated tens of thousands of times, producing five major waves that swept the planet. Alpha, Delta, Omicron, Omicron BA 2.12.1, which caused a spike of new cases in Washington in late May and June, and now Omicron BA.5. Each mutation has adapted to bypass our immune systems and therapeutics. COVID variant-specific boosters are expected to be available in the fall.

It is a common belief that viruses always get weaker when they evolve, but that isn’t true. COVID, SARS, and MERS are all part of the coronavirus family which includes the common cold. SARS has a mortality rate of 1% to 2% while MERS, which evolved from SARS, has a mortality rate as high as 40%. While a common cold could be equated to a lazy housecat, COVID is closer to a male lion and MERS would be akin to a pack of starving lions. Cats and lions are felines – a scratch from a cat hurts while a scratch from a lion can kill. COVID lies between SARS and MERS.

The ability to spread easily isn’t the only evolution in BA.5 that has the medical community so worried, pre-print studies show it can evade all forms of previous immunity. Many people who had never caught COVID fell ill in May and early June, with a spike in BA.2.12.1 cases. Before BA.5 became the new dominant strain, a recent infection offered on average five months of enhanced immunity, but BA.5 is infecting people who had COVID just weeks earlier. Although other strains could evade front-line defenses, memory T cells weren’t fooled. Many who had previous infections or are vaccinated had mild symptoms that didn’t require seeing a doctor or hospitalizations. Data indicates that isn’t the case for BA.5, which can slip past the secondary immune response.

In Washington, new case rates are similar to the end of December, when the Omicron surge brought regional hospitals to their knees a few weeks later. Experts believe the case rate is much higher due to widely available home tests which go unreported, the end of COVID testing for international travel, and most employers dropping frequent COVID testing requirements. Fewer mild and asymptomatic cases are being captured. In San Francisco, wastewater data shows that COVID-19 has quietly spread at a faster rate than earlier spikes.

According to the Washington State Department of Health, area hospitals are already strained, in a situation eerily similar to December 2021. Statewide only 8% of acute care beds and 10% of ICU beds are available. Twelve percent of acute care patients have COVID, while ICU occupancy remains at a manageable 7%. A common question is if someone is hospitalized “with” COVID or “due” to COVID, but the point doesn’t matter. A patient that has COVID has to be treated differently and requires more attention, which saps already thin medical resources.

So far, the number of patients on ventilators remains far lower than in previous waves. While immunity to prevent symptomatic infection has declined significantly, protection from severe COVID symptoms appears to be holding.

As with previous waves, people 18 to 34 have the highest case rate while those 65 and older have the highest hospitalization rate. Officially, only three counties in Washington don’t have a “high transmission rate” for COVID.

BIPOC, Breaking News, Local, National

Seattle Man Arrested for Racist Death Threats Against Rep. Pramila Jayapal

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Brett Allen Forsell, 48, is being held in King County Jail until he can make $500,000 bail, for brandishing a handgun and making racist death threats outside the home of United States Congressperson Pramila Jayapal (WA-D).

Rep. Jayapal’s office released a statement about the incident on her website.

“Congresswoman Jayapal confirms that incidents occurred at her Seattle home on Saturday night when she was present. The Congresswoman and her family are safe and appreciate the many calls and good wishes she is receiving from constituents. She is very grateful for the swift and professional response from the Seattle Police Department, the US Capitol Police, and the FBI investigators who are working together diligently on the investigation, and ensuring that she and her family stay safe. Because this is an ongoing investigation, she will not be commenting further at this time.”

Seattle police reported they were called to Jayapal’s home on Saturday reporting a person was driving by the home, and yelling obscene and racist statements. A neighbor also called 911 reporting that someone may have fired a “pellet gun,” displaying a weapon.

Forsell was arrested in the middle of the street, possessing a handgun with it in his waistband. A witness told investigators they heard Forsell yelling, “Go back to India,” and “I’m going to kill you,” driving by the congressperson’s house three times.

Prosecutors asked for an emergency restraining order, but the motion was denied. The judge overseeing the initial hearing said there was “probable cause” for additional hate crime charges.

Jayapal is the first Indian-American woman elected to the House of Representatives and heads the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

The FBI and the United States Secret Service are also investigating. Formal charges are expected to be filed on Wednesday.

BIPOC, LGBTQIA, Local, National

Two Men Connected to White Nationalist Hate Group Charged with Vandalism in Olympia

[Olympia, Wash.] – MTN – The City of Olympia Prosecutor’s Office has announced charges against two men in connection to the October 16, 2021, vandalization of the “Respect and Love Olympia” mural that fronted the former Griswold’s Building on 4th Avenue in downtown Olympia.

Colton Michael Brown, 23, of Ravensdale, and Spencer Simpson, 20, of Ellensburg, have been charged with a misdemeanor crime of Aiding and Abetting Graffiti. The pair are accused of defacing the rainbow mural and community statement against hate. Brown is the Pacific Northwest Network Director of Patriot Front, which has been recognized by the Southern Poverty Law Center as a white nationalist hate group. Simpson is also a member.

The Olympia Police Department has been investigating the crime and made use of community information and open-source social media and websites to help identify those involved in the vandalism. This led to the charges against the two men.

Patriot Front began in late 2017 as a splinter group of the violent fascist organization Vanguard America, which fractured after it was tied to Charlottesville car attack murderer James Alex Fields. Its 22-year-old leader, Thomas Rousseau, lives in the group’s current headquarters in Haslet, Texas, where he leads the Neo-Nazi organization.

The group Unicorn Riot released video, audio, and pictures in January 2022 after a data leak exposed 400GB of data about Patriot Front. The information suggests that Brown goes by the name “John WA” in his online presence and in communications to other Patriot Front members.

This isn’t the first brush with the law for the duo, who were among 31 members of the hate group arrested in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho on June 11, charged with conspiracy to riot, a misdemeanor. Prosecutors allege the group planned to force confrontations at a gay pride event in the lakeside Idaho panhandle community.

The plan was foiled when a person alerted police after they saw the group loading up into the back of a U-Haul truck like, “a little army,” according to local officials. Area police stopped the U-Haul truck within sight of the festival. During the search of the suspects and the box truck, police found smoke grenades, shields, batons, and other tactical gear.

Patriot Front members were active in Kirkland from 2018 to 2021. Social media users first started sharing images of flyers posted across the city in October 2018. In 2019, members tossed flyers in plastic baggies with a rock as added weight into residents’ driveways in the Highlands neighborhood. Stencils and stickers appeared sporadically through early 2021. No one was ever identified or charged in any of those incidents.

Photo Credit – Social Media User – Members of Patriot Front left flyers in Kirkland driveways in January 2019
Photo Credit – Social Media User – October 2018 Patriot Front flyer attached to a light pole using the Nazi-era slogan, “blood and soil” on recruitment posters placed in Kirkland, Washington

“I appreciate the work of the investigators, and the community members who stepped forward to assist in the investigation,” said Olympia Police Chief Rich Allen. “Acts like these have no place in Olympia. We will always investigate these kinds of incidents, and we will always work to hold those responsible to account in a court of law.”

Brown and Simpson will be arraigned on their charges on July 13, 2022, at 8 a.m. in Olympia Municipal Court. The work of identifying others involved in the vandalism is ongoing. After Olympia, the pair are expected to be in court in Idaho on August 22, 2022, to face their conspiracy charges.

National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 8, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,052 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 7, no territorial changes related to liberation or capture were reported, nor major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In the Luhansk oblast, Ukrainian forces are contesting control of Bilohorivka to the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces destroyed the Russian wet crossing in Pryvillya between July 3 – 6.

Ukrainian officials and Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Luhansk is not under complete Russian control. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) showed hot spots east of Topolivka and in the vicinity of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

In Russian-occupied Severodonetsk, an insurgency has already formed. Threats against the Chechen occupying forces and “wanted posters” have started to appear in the city.

Northeast Donetsk – There were widespread artillery and MLRS barrages by Russian forces in northeast Donetsk, likely setting conditions for a future offensive.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance into Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were able to advance into the eastern part of Verknokamyanske. Russian forces were held at the eastern edge of Spirne. Further south, Russian forces tried to capture the settlement of Berestove and were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut – East of Bakhmut, Russian forces have started to advance on Vesela Dolyna.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Vershyna. There were unsuccessful. Ukraine maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant and pushed Russian forces back incrementally in Luhanske. Russian forces suffered significant losses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Ukrainian artillery or rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) struck the Kirovs’kyi fuel depot causing a massive fire. An ammunition depot was also destroyed near the George Dimitrov Number 112 school in Donetsk.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets destroyed an ammunition depot in Shakhtarsk, 60 kilometers east of Donetsk.

Near Russian-controlled Melitopol, insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Novobohdanivka and Troitske.

Kherson – In Kherson, the sound of small arms fire could be heard within the city. The Russian base at Chornobaivka was attacked with artillery, and Ukrainian officials reported that up to 25 vehicles were destroyed. The area targeted was a repair center for light to moderately damaged Russian military vehicles, contributing to the unusually high number of losses.

Russian forces are trying to slow the Ukrainian advance west and northwest of Kherson, targeting Ukrainian-controlled areas with artillery and rockets fired from MLRS.

North of Kherson city, NASA FIRMS suggests there is fighting west of Ukrainian-controlled Lozove in Andriivka. Ukrainian attack helicopters fired on Russian positions in Davydiv Brid. Russian forces used artillery and MLRS to interdict the Ukrainian GLOC on the T-2207 highway from Osokorivka. Additionally, Russian forces did reconnaissance in force with understaffed platoons, launching two raids on Dobryanka and one on Myroliubivka. None of the attempts were successful.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces made another spoiling attack on Sosnivka and Dementiivka. Neither attack was unsuccessful. Otherwise, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery fire along the frozen front.

At least two Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck the Nemyshlianskyi District of Kharkiv city, killing three civilians.

Izyum – There are reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed the recently repaired railroad bridge in Russian-controlled Kupyansk, north of Izyum. Southwest of Pisky-Radkivski, NATO-provided HIMARS systems were fired at a forward operating training base and staging area for Luhansk (LNR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) conscripts, Russian Federation Armed Forces contract volunteers, and terrorists with the Imperial Legion reporting to Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group.

Russian forces made another ad hoc advance into Bohorodychne, backed by intense artillery fire. They were unsuccessful and returned to previously held defensive lines on the edge of the settlement.

Sumy – In the Sumy oblast, Russian forces fired small arms into the settlement of Shalyhyne.

Odesa – Black Sea – On July 7 under cover of darkness, combat divers from Ukraine’s 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center used underwater vehicles to reach Snake Island. Special forces cleared sea and land mines, performed reconnaissance, and raised several Ukrainian flags. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Serhii Bratchuk of the Odesa Military Administration reported that the Russian air force fired two cruise missiles at Snake Island that struck the pier on the island’s north side at dawn.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles at the disabled Moldovian flagged tanker Millenial Spirit. The vessel was abandoned at anchor off the coast of Odesa after it was attacked on February 25. It is reported the ship is on fire but still afloat. The smoke was visible from Odesa.

Two more Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles hit grain warehouses near Odesa, holding 35 tons of cereals awaiting export.

Beyond Ukraine – Belarusian armed forces have extended ongoing military training exercises until July 16. In another provocation, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Major General Ruslan Kosygin, said that in the event of “Western provocations,” Belarusian forces will strike primarily on the infrastructure of Poland.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, artillery and MLRS are still being used along the line of conflict, and civilians and civilian infrastructure continue to be targeted.
  2. Combat activity in the last 12 hours raises questions on whether the reports of an operational pause are authentic.
  3. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that in Ukraine, “we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,” is saber-rattling from the Kremlin unless Putin intends to declare war formally and mobilize.
  4. It appears that Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk, given the resistance against Russian advances on the edges of the Luhansk oblast.
  5. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed two to four HIMARS units on July 6 were patently false, and the NATO-provided HIMARS attacked critical military targets in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts.
  6. Russian forces continue to lose ground in Kherson despite bringing in reserve troops and increasing artillery fire.

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BIPOC, Local

Charleena Lyles Inquest Concludes Seattle Police Officers Used ‘Reasonable Force’

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) After weeks of testimony, the jury considering the evidence presented during the Charleena Lyles inquest concluded after 20 hours of deliberation, Seattle Police Officers used “reasonable force” and were left with no other options beyond lethal force.

Lyle’s grandfather exploded in anger after the verdict was read, and was escorted from the courtroom.

The jurors had to use the legal standard for evaluating user of force police conduct that existed in 2017, which required the finding of “malice” or “evil intent.” In 2019, Washington state law was changed to remove the requirement. Jurors were asked to consider more than 100 questions, including if the officers’ actions were done with “malice.”

On June 17, 2017, Charleena Lyles called 911 to report a burglary. Seattle Police officers had been to her apartment two weeks earlier and knew she was in a mental health crisis. Jason Anderson and Steven McNew were the responding officers and neither had less-lethal options with them. Officer Anderson had stopped carrying his department-provided taser a few days earlier and McNew was not certified to carry one.

Officers enter the apartment, and despite knowing that Lyles was having mental health issues, did not ask her to put away some knives that were on the kitchen counter. During the interaction, the inquest determined that Lyles had grabbed one of the knives and would not comply with the officers’ orders. The inquest found that Lyles threatened Anderson and McNew with deadly force, leaving them no other option due to the tight quarters of the apartment, and not carrying less-lethal weapons. They fired their service weapons seven times, striking Lyles, who was pregnant, multiple times. Lyles died at the scene and her death was witnessed by two of her four children.

In 2018, Office Anderson was suspended for two days after a Seattle Office of Police Accountability investigation determined he had violated department policy but not having his taser. The OPA finds determined that the incident may have turned out differently if Anderson had a less-lethal option available.

Lyles’s family filed a $10 million lawsuit against the city of Seattle in 2020. The lawsuit was dismissed, but reinstated on appeal in 2021. The case was set to go to trial in February, but the family and the City of Seattle reached a $3.5 million settlement in November 2021.

King County Prosecutor Dan Sattenberg said that his office would review the evidence presented during the inquest and make a final determination on whether criminal charges will be filed. Because the pre-2019 standard of proving “malice” or “evil intent” is a requirement to secure a conviction, it is unlikely criminal charges will move forward.

National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 7, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,051 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 6, there weren’t any territorial changes related to liberation or capture, nor major combat operations by either belligerent across the entire theater. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Donetsk regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko urged the 350,000 civilians still living in the oblast to evacuate the area. Kyrylenko has stressed that fewer civilians will enable combat forces to focus on fighting and be less concerned about collateral damage.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Southwest of Lysychansk, Ukrainian forces topped a Russian advance toward Spirne.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok and may be setting conditions to start an advance from Lyman.

The most intense fighting in Ukraine was in the Svitlodarsk bulge. Russian forces tried to capture Novoluhanske and Luhanske and were not successful. Ukraine also maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. Insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak in an attempt to disrupt Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines)

Kherson – In Kherson, Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot adjacent to the Kherson city train station. Residents reported they could hear small arms fire coming from the direction of Chornobaivka.

Fighting continued near Snihurivka and at the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Inhulets River at Bila Krynytsya-Bilohirka.

Russian forces fired artillery and MLRS in the northern part of Kherson in an attempt to slow the Ukrainian advance. Fighting continued in Arkhanhel’s’ke.

Kharkiv – Russian forces attempted a spoiling attack on Sosnivka and were unsuccessful. Positional fighting near Vesele left the town contested but leaning towards Ukrainian control. Russian forces did airstrikes on Rubizhne [Kharkiv], a no man’s land in northeastern Kharkiv.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrivne, Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Velkya Komyshuvakha. Russian troops made a small advance on Kurulka to test Ukrainian defenses and retreated.

Sumy – The settlements of Myropilska, Krasnopilska, and Khotinska were attacked by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). There were no injuries reported.

Odesa – Ukrainian forces arrived on Snake Island and did a flag-raising. There is no intention of occupying the island at this time. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed a cruise missile fired at Odesa.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Federation Armed Forces entered a theaterwide operational pause, although we cannot determine how long this will last.
  2. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire by Russian forces is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  3. Russian forces appear to be setting conditions to advance on Slovyansk-Kramatorsk when the operational pause ends.
  4. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.
  5. Russian forces continue to struggle in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces continue to make incremental gains and can attack Kherson city.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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