[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) During a Facebook Live with Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (CA-D) on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci M.D., Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, recommended Americans who are eligible to get a Covid-19 booster shot to get one as soon as possible due to waning immunity.
With concern growing about a sixth wave in states that finished beating back the Delta surge and states such as Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Vermont having a late fifth wave, questions about eligibility for boosters are growing.
Some states aren’t waiting for direction from the federal government. California Governor Gavin Newsom and California Health Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly told state residents 18 and older they should “absolutely” sign up to get a COVID booster. On Thursday, Colorado Governor Jared Polis issued a directive that defies current federal guidance on Covid-19 booster shots, permitting all state residents 18 and older to get them.
During a White House briefing on Wednesday, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said there continued to be a need to prioritize those who are currently eligible for a Covid-19 booster but added, “as you likely know, FDA is currently looking at the data for expanding boosters to all populations.”
Who is currently eligible for a Covid-19 booster
Eligibility depends on which vaccine you received and several other factors.
Janssen/Johnson & Johnson
If your initial vaccine was Janssen/Johnson & Johnson and you’re 18 or older, you are eligible for a booster 60 days after receiving your first dose. There are no limitations for age, comorbidities, living arrangements, or vocation.
The FDA has approved a mix-and-match approach, and you can receive a booster using the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or a second Johnson & Johnson dose.
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has a 1:500,000 chance of causing a rare condition called VITT. In the United States, there have been 47 reported cases and four deaths. If you were assigned female at birth and have a family history of blood clots or low platelets, or you are of childbearing age and using a hormone-based form of birth control, and you’re concerned about VITT, talk to your healthcare provider, OB/GYN, or fertility specialist.
If you’ve had a confirmed case of Covid-19 in the last 90 days and you were symptomatic, talk to your doctor or healthcare provider on whether you should wait to receive a booster.
BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna
Anyone 65 or older and received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine is eligible for a booster 180 days after their second dose. People 18 to 64 can qualify for a third dose if they have certain medical conditions, work in a high-risk environment, or live in an area where social distancing isn’t feasible.
Medical conditions that put you at risk for severe Covid-19
Chronic lung disease such as moderate to severe asthma, bronchiectasis, COPD including obstructive sleep apnea, fibrosis or prior lung damage due to scarring, injury, or prior disease, cystic fibrosis, pulmonary embolism or history of, or pulmonary hypertension or history of
Dementia or Alzheimer’s
Diabetes – Type 1 or Type 2
Down Syndrome
Heart disease such as heart failure, coronary artery disease, high blood pressure, cardiomyopathies
HIV
Immunocompromised, auto-immune disease, taking immunosuppressants, or using drugs that suppress the immune system such as steroids both oral and topical
Mental health conditions including mood disorders, depression, and schizophrenia
Body Mass Index (BMI) over 25
Pregnant, trying to get pregnant, or sexually active and could get pregnant and would carry pregnancy to term
Sickle cell disease or Thalassemia
Smoking or vaping currently or in the past
Solid-organ or blood stem cell transplant
Stroke or cerebrovascular disease
Substance abuse past or present including alcohol, opiods, or cocaine
Tuberculosis
Living conditions
If you have any of these living arrangements, you qualify for a booster.
Long-term care facility
Homeless shelter – short or long term
Jail or prison inmate
Community living arrangements such as dormatories, halfway houses, group homes, or hostels
Live with a high-risk individual with a medical condtion listed above, or live in a multi-generational household, and you are the primary care provider
First responders such as healthcare workers, firefighters, police, or congregate care providers
Educational staff such as teachers, support staff, athletics staff, transportation, and daycare workers
Food and agriculture workers
Manufacturing workers
Correctional officers and employees who work in jails or prisons including healthcare, educators, and mental health providers
U.S. Postal Service workers
Public transit workers
Grocery store workers and other retail and service employees that have high contact with the public
There have been less than 1,000 mild to moderate myocarditis cases in the United States connected with receiving the mRNA Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Most of these cases involved adolescents or young men. If you were assigned male at birth and have a history of heart disease, or are worried about myocarditis, talk to your healthcare provider to see if the Jassen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine is a better option.
Just like the J&J vaccine, If you’ve had a confirmed case of Covid-19 in the last 90 days and you were symptomatic, talk to your healthcare provider to determine if you should wait to receive a booster.
I thought the COVID vaccine was forever
The idea that the Covid-19 vaccine would be one and done is a creation of misinformation, misunderstanding, and poor reporting by some news outlets.
As the first COVID wave was winding down in the United States in May 2020, there were discussions about having “immunity passports.” People who had a confirmed Covid-19 case could be permitted to return to work and other activities based on the assumption they possessed natural immunity. Shortly after the discussions started, early evidence began to pile up that natural immunity was short-lived. The journal Nature Medicine shared a report on June 18 showing natural immunity started to fade after three months.
The closest claim that immunity from natural exposure or vaccination would last a lifetime came from former President Donald Trump in October 2020. Still, even then, he never made a complete claim of lifetime protection. On October 11, 2020 during an interview with Maria Bartiromo, Trump discussed his personal battle with Covid-19.
“It looks like I’m immune for, I don’t know, maybe a long time, maybe a short time,” he said. “It could be a lifetime. Nobody really knows, but I’m immune. So the President is in very good shape to fight the battles.”
As Trump was recovering from COVID and considering if he had “long time” immunity, there was more evidence that natural immunity started to fade after three months and a growing number of reinfection cases. For public health officials, an even bigger concern was many people who got reinfected suffered from more severe cases.
In December, when the first Covid-19 vaccines were about to become publicly available in the United States, the medical community was already cautioning the public it was unknown how long immunity would last.
In January 2021, Dr. Kristen Marks M.D., an infectious disease specialist at New York-Presbyterian, said, “We really don’t know whether you’re still immune a year after vaccination. Some of the clinical trials will study adding a booster in a year and comparing whether that’s better or if the immunity is just as good for two years with the two shots. That remains to be determined.”
Data from the United Kingdom and Israel have shown that all immunity wanes. Although cases grew dramatically in both countries, hospitalizations and fatalities did not match the winter 2020 surges. A vast majority of the hospitalized, critically ill, and deaths were among the unvaccinated. In Israel, an aggressive booster program ended their wave where new cases have drifted downward to early July levels.
How long does natural and vaccine based immunity last
Two different studies were released in October 2021, providing insight into how long natural and vaccine immunity last. Neither offer lifetime protection.
On October 1, a study on the durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 was published in The Lancet. Researchers predicted that natural immunity had a half-life of 142 to 185 days. Half-life means how long does it take for half of the antibodies for a disease to disappear from a person’s blood serum. The study estimated that after 16 months, the average person would no longer have any natural immunity to Covid-19. However, the study also stated that this would vary widely depending on age, overall health, genetics, and risk factors. The half-life could be as short as 45 days or as long as 31 months.
Three days later, the Lancet published a study on vaccine-based immunity titled Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA. That study indicated that immunity waned from 30% to 50% after five months depending on the mRNA vaccine administered, age, and Covid-19 variants. Simply put, vaccine immunity and natural immunity, when accounting for a range of factors, have similar half-lives.
The viral-vector vaccine from Johnson & Johnson has received less research and has been administered to approximately 15 million Americans. A third study indicated the J&J vaccine was the least effective of the three available options in the United States, particularly with the Delta variant.
Why aren’t the vaccines 100% effective
It is a common misconception that vaccines are 100% effective, especially in industrialized nations. Due to a combination of high vaccination rates for diseases such as measles, mumps, and polio, and enough immunized people to provide community immunity, it is easy to believe that vaccines are perfect and forever.
For example, polio still exists in several countries, and the U.S. Department of Defense and the CDC recommend a poliovirus booster for anyone traveling to those regions. Certain members of Generation X have been advised to get an updated MMR vaccination because data shows that protection from measles doesn’t last a lifetime. Even Ben Shapiro complained on Twitter in 2015 that his 13-month old son was exposed to pertussis and became severely ill.
When it comes to the COVID vaccines, no one in the medical community said any vaccines were 100% effective, and the data has always been publicly available.
In Phase 3 studies, the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were 95% effective in the first few months after vaccination. Put simply, “If there were 100 people who would have gotten COVID, it prevented 95 of them from getting it, but it didn’t prevent all 100,” says Dr. Marks. “It definitely provides some protection, but it’s not perfect.”
The Johnson & Johnson vaccine reported a 72% efficacy rate in preventing moderate to severe disease from COVID-19 in the U.S. and was 85% effective in preventing severe disease.
The good news is that early data found that those who did contract COVID-19 after receiving the vaccine did not develop a severe form of the disease. “So even if it doesn’t completely prevent illness, the study data shows that it does reduce the severity,” Dr. Marks said. Ten months later, the early projections have largely come true.
In King County, Washington, 22% of all confirmed Covid-19 infections since January 17 have been breakthrough cases. Eleven percent of people hospitalized were vaccinated, and 15% died of Covid-19 related illness. When the total number of vaccinated versus unvaccinated residents is considered, the effectiveness of vaccines, even as the need for boosters is increasing, is evident.
Population
Confirmed Cases
Hospitalized
Deaths
Fully vaccinated
1.633M
20,252
433
115
Partial or unvaccinated
319K
71,857
3,373
667
349,000 King County residents are under 12 years old and were not vaccine eligible from January 7 to November 10
Unvaccinated King County residents were 12 times more likely to be hospitalized and 13 times more likely to die of Covid-19 from January 17 to November 3.
Additionally, a comparison of King County, Washington, and Dallas County, Texas, provides additional data on vaccination and public health programs’ impact. King County experienced the first superspreader event in February 2020, the first Covid-19 death, and had the first mass casualty situation at a hospital in the United States. A month later, Texas suffered its first Covid-19 death. Over the next 627 days, King County implemented some of the strictest COVID rules in the nation while Dallas County took a more open approach.
On November 1, Dallas County reported its 5,000 COVID-related death while King County reported 2,022. Simply put, 1 in every 530 residents of Dallas County has died of COVID since March 2020 versus 1 in every 1,137 residents in King County since February 2020.
Will we need to get boosters forever
To answer that question, we need to move away from facts and science and step into the arena of opinion. The short answer is, “maybe,” but it depends on the advancement of medical science, improvements in available vaccines, and our own behavior.
In the short term, the data is clear – peak immunity against current Covid-19 variants lasts 142 to 185 whether it is natural or vaccine-based. A regimen of booster shots will likely be needed every 6 to 12 months over the next few years.
Two antiviral drugs are currently being evaluated in the United States. Molnupiravir by Merck is reported to reduce hospitalizations and deaths by 50%, while Pfizer released a study on a medication they are developing that was 88% effective in early testing. Both drugs are oral and would be game-changers in the treatment of Covid-19.
Another way to get off the booster shot treadmill would be to reach 90% to 95% immunity, reducing the number of available hosts for Covid-19 to a level that the disease can’t widely spread in the population – so-called ‘herd immunity.” Given the resistance of 62 million Americans to get vaccinated, and almost half the world doesn’t have access to the COVID vaccine, that seems unlikely.
A third game-changer would be a new variant that emerges and is far more transmissible than the current dominant Delta strains but with significantly less severe symptoms. A version of Covid-19 that is closer to moderate Influenza in symptoms and lethality and is as contagious as measles would quickly infect the population, run out of hosts, and burn itself out while not overwhelming hospitals. This could also lead to “herd immunity.”
The final possibility is the vaccines themselves get better. The original Salk polio vaccine, authorized in 1955, was 50% effective at preventing infections but 90% effective at preventing hospitalizations. It wasn’t until 1962 when the Sabin oral vaccine replaced the Salk vaccine, that infections dropped 90% after a first dose and 99% after four doses.
If the Covid-19 vaccines follow a similar development path as other vaccines, a more effective version will likely be discovered in the future.
Why didn’t the United States approve boosters for all after the Biden Administration announced its intent
Over the summer, the Biden Administration and the World Health Organization (WHO), FDA, and CDC had a very public disagreement on who should get booster shots. President Biden wanted every adult to be eligible for a booster. The WHO objected, pointing out how some nations had no access to COVID vaccines while the United States was throwing out expired doses. The FDA and CDC also pushed back, arguing there wasn’t enough real-world data to support boosters for all.
While the debate raged, experts had a real-world case study unfolding on the other side of the world. Israeli officials started boosters for anyone over 60 on July 13 and three weeks later dropped the age to 40. On September 25, they dropped the age again to 12 and older. The program was highly effective at controlling deaths and hospitalizations, and when Israel is compared to the United Kingdom, the booster program implemented was an evident success.
On September 22, the FDA approved booster shots for recipients of the Pfizer vaccine, and on October 20 added the vaccine by Moderna. Eligibility was limited to people who were 65 or older or were 18 to 64 and worked or lived in places with a high risk of exposure or had a serious underlying medical condition that increased their chances of severe COVID. The FDA recommended a booster six months after receiving the second dose.
Also, on October 20, the FDA authorized boosters for anyone who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. As the Delta variant raged in the southeastern United States during the summer of 2021, it became evident the J&J vaccine offered less protection against hospitalization. Additionally, the viral-vector vaccines created by Astra Zeneca and developed in Russia and China were also low-performing. Anyone who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was advised to get a booster 60 days after the first dose.
Unfortunately, the ethical and trust concerns that tainted the debate in the United States have resulted in new COVID cases stuck on a high plateau for the last three weeks. New cases are rising in most states, and the pattern of Covid-19 infections looks eerily similar to the United Kingdom. A vast majority of hospitalized COVID patients continue to be unvaccinated.
The world needs to learn to live with Covid-19 and everyone will eventually have a date with the illness. The question is, will you be effectively vaccinated or not when it happens.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) Delta AY.4.2 has been declared a “variant under investigation” by the World Health Organization and was given a new name – VUI-21OCT-01. Epidemiologists are admonishing the press for calling the variant Delta Plus so for now we refer to the new variant as Covid-19 VUI-21 (“view” 21). Maybe it will stick? Only a handful of cases have been detected with Washington in seventh place.
Closer to home, vaccination rates increased across Washington, King County, and Kirkland as new cases and hospitalizations slowly drift downward. Washington is now the tenth most vaccinated state and the most vaccinated state west of the Mississippi River.
A report from the American Academy of Pediatrics calculated 1,428 Washington children became orphans between April 2020 to June 2021 due to the Covid-19 related death of one or both primary caretakers
The Washington State Office of Financial Management reported 94% of state employees complied with the vaccine mandate and lowered the number of terminated workers.
Seattle City Light got its first seasonal windstorm test just days after a handful of workers were released for refusing to get vaccinated or seek exemptions. The public utility passed the test.
Three people were accidentally administered the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine at Joint Base Lewis-McChord.
An FDA advisory panel recommended the agency approve emergency use authorization for the Pfizer vaccine in children ages 5 to 11 years old. The CDC is meeting on November 2 and 3 to consider the new protocol. Through June 2021, Covid-19 was the tenth leading cause of death for children 5 to 14 years old.
The situation at Washington hospitals has improved, especially in Eastern Washington where the worst appears to be over. The number of staffed acute care beds increased from last week, providing additional evidence the vaccine mandate did not drive a significant reduction in hospitalists.
There were small changes in the number of Covid-19 cases and impacted schools in the Bellevue, Lake Washington, and Northshore School Districts. The Lake Washington School District is now reporting the number of “close contacts” at each school but continues to share data only once a week.
Kirkland is holding a Health Fair and Community Vaccination Event on November 6 from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m.
The United States State Department reported that international travel restrictions will be loosened on November 8. Unvaccinated adults will find it challenging to enter the United States.
The Washington State Department of Health released updated vaccination data. Twenty-one counties representing 6.75 million people have more than 50% of their total population fully vaccinated. Jefferson, King, and San Juan counties are over 70% vaccinated, adding a new row to the table.
Data continues to show that counties with higher vaccination rates have fewer new Covid-19 cases.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Total Population in Group
Average 14-Day New Case Rate
70% or above (3 counties)
2,343,250
212.6
60.00% to 69.99% (4 counties)
1,242,200
339.8
50.00% to 59.99% (14 counties)
3,172,600
391.8
40.00% to 49.99% (10 counties)
860,525
421.4
30.30% to 39.99% (8 counties)
158,300
495.8
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Adjusted for Population
Through October 25, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 335.2 Covid-19 cases per 100K indicating the state is stuck on a plateau that started last week.
Ferry County is the last area to report more than 1,000 new COVID cases per 100K residents – 1,062.0 and has declined from last week.
No counties are reporting a new case rate between 800 and 999.99.
Only three counties, Grant, Klickitat, and Skagit, have a new case rate between 600.0 to 799.9. Skagit is new to this list and has seen a steadily increasing number of new cases over the last 7 to 10 days.
No particular age group appears to be driving the new case plateau. It is possible that new mass testing sites in Yakima and Spokane counties have added more data. Washington won’t report new case positivity until next week at the earliest, which would reveal if the community is being under-tested.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
150.2
0.7
Ages 12-19
157.3
0.8
Ages 20-34
152.7
3.5
Ages 35-49
159.7
8.1
Ages 50-64
125.1
11.6
Ages 65-79
101.4
20.2
Ages 80+
101.8
34.8
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
The USA Today COVID Tracker reported 29 Covid-19 related deaths in Washington state on Monday.
94% of state employees complied with vaccine mandate
Last week the state reported 1,887 employees had quit or been terminated, that number declined to 1,785. The number of potential separations due to resignation, retirement, or termination grew to 444 for the Washington State Department of Transportation and 159 for the Washington State Patrol. The data for the WSP did not have a separate number for commissioned officers and civilian employees.
The state agencies with the lowest vaccination rates are the Department of Veterans Affairs and Employment Security.
The OFM will provide another, and likely final update on November 8.
Seattle City Light passes first post-mandate test
At the height of the weekend windstorm on Sunday afternoon, almost 80,000 Seattle City Light customers were in the dark. Some had speculated that staffing loss due to the vaccine mandate would cripple the ability to restore power in the Emerald City, but that didn’t happen
On Monday afternoon power had been restored to 98% of impacted customers and on Tuesday morning only 27 customers were still in the dark for weather-related reasons. Of those, only one had been without power since Sunday.
1,428 Washington children were orphaned due to Covid-19 from April 2020 to June 2021
The study defined orphanhood as losing at least one parent because children who lose at least one parent have increased risks of mental health problems, abuse, unstable housing, and household poverty.
Over 140,000 children in the U.S. experienced the death of a parent or grandparent caregiver. The risk of such loss was 1.1 to 4.5 times higher among children of racial and ethnic minorities, compared to Non-Hispanic White children. The highest burden of COVID-19-associated death of parents and caregivers occurred in Southern border states for Hispanic children, Southeastern states for Black children, and in states with tribal areas for American Indian/Alaska Native populations.
3 people inadvertently administered Covid-19 vaccine at Joint Base Lewis-McChord
“Joint Base Lewis-McChord is aware three people were inadvertently administered the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine instead of another vaccine at the Lewis Main Exchange,” Col. Joey Sullinger with I Corps Public Affairs said in an email to Military Times.
The incident happened on or about October 26. Col. Sullinger did not share if the people who received the wrong vaccine were civilian dependents, retirees, government contractors, National Guard, or active duty military.
Travel Advisories
We are very encouraged by the hospital readiness data for the East Hospital Region and believe we can end the travel advisory in the next seven to 14 days. For now, we’re maintaining our recreational travel advisory to the East Hospital Region, including Adams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Whitman counties. Acute care and ICU capacity remain limited.
Additionally, we are maintaining the travel advisory for the Northwest Hospital Region. The region includes Clallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Mason counties.
We continue to strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care if you experience a serious medical emergency.
Thank you
Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!
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Vaccination
Number of fully vaccinated climbs in Washington, King County, and Kirkland
The number of Washington residents 12 and older fully vaccinated grew to 72.5%, the tenth highest in the United States and the highest rate west of the Mississippi River. Despite the increasing rate for fully vaccinated, the number for full and partial vaccination is 78.6%, barely changed from last week. In late April, Washington was one of the last states to make the Covid-19 vaccine eligible to all residents, further highlighting the accomplishment of health officials.
King County Health reported 88.1% of residents 12 and older have received at least one dose and 82.7% are fully vaccinated. In Kirkland, 84.3% of eligible residents are fully vaccinated, and 89.6% have received at least one dose.
The vaccination rates in Kirkland remain lower than in Bellevue, Redmond, and Woodinville.
FDA advisory panel recommends Pfizer vaccine for children ages 5 to 11 in 17-0-1 vote
NPR reported the FDA panel accepted Pfizer’s data indicating the vaccine is safe and 90.7% effective in preventing COVID-19 infections in this age group.
The agency typically goes along with the advice of its expert panels, though it isn’t bound to do so. It will issue a decision within the next several days. If the FDA authorizes the vaccine for these younger children, as seems likely, another panel of experts advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would make its own recommendations and offer guidelines next week on its use among this age group.
Due to federal supply agreements, vaccination can’t begin until the Center for Disease Control (CDC) formally recommends the Pfizer vaccine and FDA protocols. The CDC panel is meeting on November 2 and 3, paving the way for approval by the end of next week.
King County, Washington is reporting over 88.1% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 90% of all staffed acute care beds are occupied, and 14.5% of patients have Covid-19. Statewide, hospitals have the staff to support approximately 697 additional acute care patients. This is the highest number available since September and indicates that staff cuts attributed to the vaccine mandate have not had a significant impact on hospital readiness.
ICUs are at 87.0% of capacity statewide, with 24.0% of ICU patients fighting Covid-19 – an estimated 286 patients with 69.5% on ventilators. The state has the staff to support approximately 155 additional ICU patients.
On Tuesday, the 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients decreased to 86. The Department of Health reported 1,082 Covid-19 patients statewide on October 25, with 199 requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continue to decline slowly in stair steps. Over the last ten days, the number of hospitalized COVID patients has ranged from 1,044 to 1,119.
Hospital readiness has improved across most regions, especially the East Region which is benefiting from increased vaccination rates, more tests sites enabling early detection, monoclonal antibodies, and new cases slowing down in neighboring Idaho.
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
– Blackwell Elementary (4) – Carson Elementary (6) – Clara Barton (4) – Einstein (3) – Eastlake High (11) – Ella Baker (8) – Finn Hill Middle School (6) – ICS (4) – Juanita Elementary (3) – Kamiakin Middle School (20) – Kirk Elementary (2) – Lakeview Elementary (3) – Lake Washington High School (27) – Muir Elementary (1) – Redmond Elementary (9) – Redmond Middle School (64) – Redmond High School (46) – Timberline Middle School (45**) – Twain Elementary (27)
None
Northshore
YELLOW
– Arrowhead Elementary (1) – Bothell High School (21**) – Canyon Creek Elementary (10) – Canyon Park Middle School (7) – Crystal Springs Elementary (13) – East Ridge Elementary (3) – Fernwood Elementary (1) – Frank Love Elementary (38) – Hollywood Hills Elementary (2) – Inglemoor High School (14) – Kenmore Elementary (7**) – Kenmore Middle School (25**) – Kokanee Elementary (13) – Lockwood Elementary (10**) – Maywood Hills Elementary (3) – North Creek High School (10**) – Northshore Middle School (15) – Ruby Bridge Elementary (55) – Shelton View Elementary (1) – Skyview Middle School (17) – Timbercrest Middle School (11) – Wellington Elementary (19**) – Westhill Elementary (6) – Woodin Elementary (38**) – Woodinville High School (2) – Woodmoor Elementary (1)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than ten active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
New cases have increased in the Bellevue School District but remain distributed across multiple buildings with no hot spots.
The Lake Washington School District is now tracking Covid-19 cases and “close contacts,” providing additional insight. However, the district continues to publicly update the data on a weekly basis. Timberline Middle School has five confirmed bases between students and staff and another 40 in quarantine.
The Northshore School District has fewer buildings with cases but has seven schools reporting five to nine confirmed COVID cases.
We continued to encourage parents to request daily updates from the Lake Washington School District. We would also encourage parents to request the Bellevue School District include data on close contacts. These two changes would bring the three school districts we track into alignment.
Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville
Kirkland Health Fair and Community Vaccination Event on November 6
The Kirkland Health Fair and Community Vaccination Event will be held on Saturday, November 6, from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m at Juanita High School. Hosted by the City of Kirkland in partnership with Public Health – Seattle and King County, the event will provide Covid-19 vaccination, information, education, and more.
Save the date! The Kirkland Health Fair and Community Vaccination Event takes place 10 am – 2 pm, Sat 11/6 at Juanita High School. We are partnering with @KCPubHealth to provide COVID-19 vaccinations, vaccine info & education, & much more! More information to come. pic.twitter.com/JJcFnqggrJ
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker reports 102,898 new cases and 1,041 deaths nationwide on Tuesday. New Covid-19 cases have dropped 57% since September 1.
Delta AY.4.2 gets a new name – VUI-21OCT-01 and declared “variant under investigation”
The World Health Organization (WHO) designated Delta AY.4.2, incorrectly called Delta Plus as a “variant under investigation” and designated the mutation VUI-21OCT-01. The designation is below a variant of interest and variant of concern. The designation was made due to growing evidence the new variant is more transmissible than Delta.
Officials in the U.K. reported 10% of new Covid-19 cases are COVID VUI-21, a 60% increase from last week. The U.K. is wrestling with a surge of new cases that now exceeds the prior spike at the end of summer. While new cases are at record levels, hospitalizations remain below the levels of last year and deaths are 80% to 90% lower than last winter.
On the continent, Belgium has instituted fresh restrictions due to a sharp increase in Covid-19 cases while Turkey, Russian, and Ukraine set new records. Identifying which variants are creating the rise in new cases requires genomic sequencing, which is handled differently by each country. Additionally, there are doubts about the veracity of data provided by Russia and Ukraine.
The latest IHME forecast for Washington predicts hospitalizations will bounce back to late September levels by February 1, 2022. This aligns with our point of view, that the United States will see a series of hot spots creating a mini-surge in early 2022.
Isolated cases of COVID VUI-21 have been detected in 32 states. Iowa is leading the nation while Washington is in seventh place.
International travel restrictions will be eased begining November 8
To further strengthen protections, all unvaccinated travelers will need to test negative for COVID within one day of departure. Rapid tests and home tests are not accepted.
Passengers on international flights will need to show their vaccination status to their airline prior to boarding. The vaccination information must match the name and date of birth of the traveler’s identification and ticket record. Additionally, the documentation must come from an official source from a health or government agency from the same country the vaccine was administered.
Vaccines must be emergency use authorization or fully authorized by the United States Food and Drug Administration or authorized by the World Health Organization emergency use list. A person is not considered fully vaccinated until two weeks after receiving the final dose of their vaccine of choice.
Fully vaccinated travelers are still required to show a negative Covid-19 test, but the current regulation to produce a negative test result within three days of travel will remain unchanged.
There are a very limited set of exceptions from the vaccination requirement for foreign nationals. These include exceptions for children under 18, certain Covid-19 vaccine clinical trial participants, those with medical contraindications to the vaccines, those who need to travel for emergency or humanitarian reasons (with a US government-issued letter affirming the urgent need to travel), and those who are traveling on non-tourist visas from countries with low-vaccine availability as determined by the CDC.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky was asked on Meet the Press if a travel ban on flights from Britain or Europe was being considered given the rise of Delta VUI-21.
Due to the overwhelming amount of local news, we will not do a state update today. The situation in Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming can best be described as lousy, terrible, dire, and getting worse, in that order.
Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.These words have never been more important for today’s update.
[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) The big story today is not local or even in the United States. It is the U.K. where a new variant of Delta is starting to establish itself and on the European continent where new Covid-19 cases are climbing again. With the holiday travel season just weeks away the timing of this new European surge is very troubling. Our view is a new surge is coming this winter, and if you want to skip ahead you can move to the National Update to read more.
Closer to home, new cases drifted downward in Washington especially east of the Cascades while hospitalizations remain plateaued.
State officials said some people who were fired or quit because of the vaccine mandate will probably qualify for unemployment benefits.
We have additional information on the Kirkland Fire Department and the status of 16 employees who were not fully vaccinated by October 18.
New Covid-19 cases were reported at Lake Hills Elementary in the Bellevue School District and Kamiakin Middle School in Lake Washington.
King County Sheriff employees were told to keep working “until further notice” even if they have not submitted their vaccination information. The number of Seattle Police Department officers seeking exemptions dropped further today. Seattle Public Schools reported over 99% of teachers and 100% of school principals are fully vaccinated or were granted exemptions. A small group of protesters gathered outside of Seattle City Light but for now, no one has been fired.
Former Washington State University Nick Rolovich has hired an attorney who announced on Twitter he is planning to sue for wrongful termination.
While some TV and radio personalities wrung their hands over police cuts that mostly didn’t materialize, none of them are addressing the 350 employees released by the Department of Corrections. They did however focus on a Washington State Patrol sergeant who issued a farewell in a viral video.
Access to parts of the capitol complex in Olympia is restricted to vaccinated people only through January 10, and some legislatures are very mad. On the subject of legislatures, Senator Doug Ericksen who in October 2020 demanded a special session to cut the state budget by $4 billion and furlough thousands of employees, called for Jay Inslee to resign due to state employee job cuts.
Nationally, the FDA authorized booster shots for Moderna and Johnson and Johnson and approved a mix-and-match approach to boosters. Approval of the Pfizer vaccine is expected in the next couple of weeks, and the Biden Administration has already purchased 28 million doses. Finally, multiple news agencies reported tonight the FDA is seriously considering booster shots for people 40 and over.
We are now adjusting the 14 day moving average new Covid-19 case rate to account for population. This update provides a better view of how vaccination rates are impacting community spread. The new case rate is 230% higher in the least vaccinated counties versus the most vaccinated.
Percent of Total Population Fully Vaccinated
Total Population in Group
Average 14-Day New Case Rate
60.00% or above (5 counties)
2,659,450
216.4
50.00% to 59.99% (16 counties)
4,098,600
362.5
40.00% to 49.99% (10 counties)
860,525
441.7
30.30% to 39.99% (8 counties)
158,300
497.2
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Adjusted for Population
Through October 19, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average dropped slightly to 325.7 Covid-19 cases per 100K.
Ferry County (1,314.8) and Garfield County (1,303.4) continue to be hot spots, otherwise, cases in Eastern Washington are declining rapidly.
Only two counties, Chelan and Grant, have a new case rate between 600.0 to 799.9 per 100K residents, and both are in the low 600s.
Counties between 400.0 and 599.9 include Asotin, Columbia, Cowlitz, Douglas, Franklin, Grays Harbor, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Skagit, Spokane, Stevens, Walla Walla, and Yakima.
New cases by age group were statistically unchanged, while hospitalizations increased for people 65 to 79 years old.
Age Group
7-Day Case Rate
7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11
146.1
1.0
Ages 12-19
160.5
1.9
Ages 20-34
144.6
3.7
Ages 35-49
161.6
9.3
Ages 50-64
119.0
12.6
Ages 65-79
94.1
17.1 (up)
Ages 80+
92.0
30.4
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group
The USA Today COVID Tracker reported 88 deaths on Tuesday. However, that number includes the weekend and Monday.
Some people who quit or were fired over vaccine mandate may qualify for state unemployment benefits
“The laws surrounding when someone is qualified to receive benefits are going to be intricate and complex,” said Scott Michael, legal services coordination manager at the Employment Security Department, during a meeting of the Unemployment Insurance Advisory Committee last month. “Each case always has to be decided on its own merits. Small differences in facts, in timing, in what was said, what was intended can lead to very different outcomes.”
Workers who requested a medical or religious exemption, had it granted, and were refused accommodation, will likely qualify for state unemployment benefits. The lack of accommodation despite recognizing their need for exemption creates a “good cause” for them to quit their position. However, a person filing for unemployment would need to show that they tried to negotiate with their employer in good faith and had their request rejected.
The minimum unemployment benefit in Washington is $285 a week, and the maximum is $929. The amount of weekly benefit is based on prior income. Individuals who made $10,000 a month or more for the six months before claiming unemployment would qualify for the state maximum. With the end of federal benefits on September 6, a person could claim unemployment for 26 weeks.
Individuals fired or who quit over principle, medical freedom, or refusing to get vaccinated likely have no recourse.
Unvaccinated King County Sheriff Office employees told to work “until further notice”
The King County Sheriff Office (KCSO) has not provided data on how many deputies are vaccinated because of a previous agreement made with the county to extend the vaccination deadline to December 2.
In an October 4 memo sent to the 1,100 KCSO employees were advised if they had not shown proof of vaccination by October 18, they should keep reporting to work “until further notice.”
The same memo also said that employees who had not provided proof of vaccination or requested accommodation would get a letter of pending separation around October 20.
402, 292, 200, 103, 93 SPD officers seeking exemptions
Yesterday the Seattle Police Department reported 103 employees sought medical or religious exemptions, and another six were facing termination after not getting vaccinated by October 18. The Seattle Times reported 93 commissioned officers are seeking exemptions.
The department has the budget to support almost 300 or more commissioned officers. Factoring the pending Loudermill hearings for the six who decided not to get vaccinated, the City has 1,037 available cops. If all 93 exemption requests are rejected, the department will lose 9% of the current force.
KOMO reported there “could be impacts to service” per SPD. The dire predictions of moving the department to emergency staffing conditions did not come to pass.
Former WSU coach Nick Rolovich to sue for wrongful termination
Nick Rolovich is going to sue Washington State University for “unjust and unlawful” termination, according to a statement released by the attorney representing the former WSU football coach.
In the statement posted on Twitter, the unnamed attorney claims that WSU Athletic Director Pat Chun had planned to fire Rolovich “since at least April.”
Just received this from an attorney representing Nick Rolovich, who plans to sue #WashingtonState for illegal termination. Accuses AD Pat Chun of “discriminatory and vindictive behavior.” pic.twitter.com/KTOnIchKXD
The letter claims that Rolovich has “sincerely held religious beliefs” and Chun was dishonest, discriminatory, and vindictive.
Rolovich was the subject of rampant speculation for months as he played a public relations cat and mouse game over his vaccination status. Rolovich told USA Today he was filing an exemption request based on religious grounds with little more than a week left before the state-mandated deadline.
Editor’s Note: We continue to believe this is just public relations theater. Our prediction is Rolovich will receive an out-of-court settlement for an undisclosed sum with a gag order for all parties. In the end, this will be a loss for Washington state taxpayers.
Access to state capitol House and Senate buildings restricted to vaccinated only through January 10
Under a new rule adopted by a House committee last month, legislatures and employees needed to provide proof of vaccination by October 18 to access the House facilities through January 10.
Robinson clarified that the figure applies only to full-time staff with SPS, including teachers, principals, and management staff. Full-time employees with SPS account for 7,283 of its more than 12,000 total employees. The rest are hourly and seasonal personnel.
Robinson indicated 205 employees were granted religious or medical exemptions. Teachers were “over 99% compliance” along with 100% of school principals. Malcontent News estimates 30 to 35 full-time teachers are facing termination based on the data provided by Robinson and the staffing numbers in SPS before the October 18 deadline.
A small group protests outside of Seattle City Light over vaccine mandate
“They are not saying I am fired, to be clear, but what they are saying is to no longer have contact with anybody here,” said Jeremy Rowan, a City Light employee for nearly 20 years.
Seattle City Light has approximately 1,690 employees. City officials reported 1,573 workers were fully vaccinated, and another 84 have requested religious or medical exceptions that are under consideration. Based on the data provided, Malcontent News estimates 30 to 35 people are facing termination.
Despite fearmongering from Turning Point USA, the City indicates they do not expect any service-related issues.
What happens when a grid loses power and there’s not enough workers to get it running?
DOC Secretary Cheryl Strange did not provide data on how many correctional officers or supervisors were released but stated the terminations included medical staff, cooks, maintenance workers, and officers.
Strange said the prisons are safe as they were during and before the pandemic.
“We have not seen a significant impact to staff, or those in our care and custody, any uptick in injury or fights,” said Strange.
Editor’s Note: The DOC has been underfunded and short-staffed for years, partially due to Washington voters refusing to pass measures that would offer badly needed prison reform and provide adequate funding. Issues of improper staffing levels, low morale, assaults on inmates and employees, and poorly trained staff are well documented. Even if the vaccine-related terminations have not created “a significant impact to staff, or those in our care and custody,” this statement ignores the continuing issues in Washington state prisons.
Editor’s Note 2: We find it disingenuous that news personalities such as Brandi Kruse, Jason Rantz, and Dori Monson have amplified unrealized fears of a law and order disaster due to the vaccine mandate while not once mentioning corrections officers. The United States prison system is steeped in racism, inequity, and ineffectiveness. Almost 60% of Washington state inmates have a serious mental illness when they are incarcerated, setting up DOC staff and inmates for repeated failure. The United States has the largest prison population both per capita and in total numbers on the planet.
In final radio message farewell, former WSP Sergeant Kirk Schnider contradicts the number of job cuts
In a radio transmission on October 18, Washington State Patrol Sergeant Kirk Schnider stated, “due to my personal choices to take a moral stand for medical freedom and personal choice. I will be signing out for the last time today after nearly 17 years in service to the state of Washington.”
In his broadcast, Schnider accused the media and WSP officials of downplaying their role and the impact on the department due to vaccination-related separations.
“We all know in this district on the 19th there will be 51 of the 75 troopers available and only 7 of the 11 sergeants.”
Taking a "moral stance for medical freedom & personal choice," this 17-year veteran of the WA State Patrol tearfully says goodbye, forced out by @GovInslee's vaccine mandate. His wife is the dispatch operator (15-year veteran) & is also out.
The WSP reported in a press release that a total of 67 commissioned officers, six sergeants, and one captain were terminated for choosing to refuse vaccination. Schnider is one of the six sergeants to leave WSP.
Fiscal conservatives from the Senate Freedom Caucus call for resignation of Governor Jay Inslee due to vaccine mandate
Yesterday, members of the Washington State Freedom Caucus called for Governor Jay Inslee to resign due to vaccine-mandate-related staff cuts, according to a report in Clark County Today.
“This mass-termination event is the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said state Senator Doug Ericksen (Ferndale-R). “Never have we witnessed a failure of leadership in this state as we have seen under Gov. Jay Inslee. For nearly 600 days, he has used COVID emergency powers to establish autocratic rule, refusing to call the Legislature into special session, and shutting the people out.”
“Inslee has done significant damage to the credibility of state government and has eroded the public’s trust. Now he is firing thousands of public employees without regard to the harm it will cause. This effort to punish can only be seen as the willful act of a failed governor. Inslee has failed miserably. We don’t take this lightly. But the only thing that can allow our state to heal and move forward is for Jay Inslee to resign.”
A total of 1,887 employees were terminated statewide on October 18, with the only apparent significant disruption impacting Washington State Ferries.
The state Freedom Caucus includes Ericksen, Phil Fortunato (Auburn-R), Jim McCune (Graham-R), and Mike Padden (Spokane Valley-R). The group proposed a “stimulus plan” during the same month that would take federal COVID relief tax dollars to eliminate day use fees at state parks, cut state camping fees, cut hunting and fishing license fees, and create a “school choice” voucher program.
Travel Advisories
Due to increased acute care hospitalizations, we’re maintaining our recreational travel advisory to the East Hospital Region, including Adams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Whitman counties. Acute care and ICU capacity remain limited, and the ratio of Covid-19 patients to other hospital patients is exceptionally high. Please reconsider nonessential travel plans to these counties.
We are walking back that our travel advisory for the East Hospital Region will likely last through the remainder of 2021. Current data is somewhat encouraging, and we believe the situation could improve significantly in the next four weeks.
We strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care in Alaska, Idaho, and Montana if you experience a serious medical emergency.
We are not adding a travel advisory for the Northwest Hospital Region, which includes Clallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Mason counties but don’t recommend engaging in risky recreational behavior on the Olympic Peninsula. Although hospitals are very constrained, the region is adjacent to the Puget Sound and West Hospital Regions, which have adequate resources.
Thank you
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The FDA has limited the Moderna booster to persons over 64-years old, 18 to 64 years old and immunocompromised, and persons who work in occupations where they are frequently exposed to Covid-19.
Data from Moderna indicated that a low dose provided the same immunity as a regular dose, so the FDA guidelines specify a half dose for booster injections.
Booster shots for Jassen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine approved by the FDA
“Earlier analyses from the FDA and CDC safety surveillance systems suggest an increased risk of a serious and rare type of blood clot in combination with low blood platelets following administration of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine. This serious condition is called thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS). People who developed TTS after receiving the vaccine had symptoms that began about one to two weeks after vaccination. Reporting of TTS has been highest in females ages 18 through 49 years. In addition, safety surveillance suggests an increased risk of a specific serious neurological disorder called Guillain Barré syndrome, within 42 days following receipt of the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine.“
Mix and Match of Covid-19 booster shots approved by the FDA
In a third decision, the FDA approved mix and match Covid-19 booster shots. A clinical trial data from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases involving more than 1,500 people showed that mixing and matching provided a positive immune response. Additionally, data indicated that millions of Americans were already combining vaccination boosters on their own.
The mix and match authorization will help innoculate vulnerable communities such as nursing home residents faster while enabling individual choice.
As an example, a woman who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and is currently taking birth control could get a Pfizer or Moderna booster as an alternative.
“Today’s actions demonstrate our commitment to public health in proactively fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock, M.D. “As the pandemic continues to impact the country, science has shown that vaccination continues to be the safest and most effective way to prevent COVID-19, including the most serious consequences of the disease, such as hospitalization and death. The available data suggest waning immunity in some populations who are fully vaccinated. The availability of these authorized boosters is important for continued protection against COVID-19 disease.”
Reports the FDA is considering expanding Pfizer and Moderna booster shots to people 40 and older
Multiple news outlets are reporting that the FDA may recommend expanding Covid-19 booster shots for people who received the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer or Moderna more than six months ago and are over 39-years old.
“I believe it will happen,” the source familiar with the plan told CNN’s Elizabeth Cohen. There is “growing concern within the FDA” that US data is beginning to show more hospitalizations among people under age 65 who have been fully vaccinated, the source said.
Multiple outlets citing the same source indicated that government officials are becoming concerned about growing breakthrough cases among middle-aged Americans.
Editor’s Note:Malcontent News usually does not share or report on stories from “undisclosed sources.” We believe there is veracity to these reports due to global events and growing concern over the Delta Plus AY.4.2 variant that includes additional spike mutations A222V and Y145H.
Approval of Pfizer vaccine for 5 to 11 year olds expected to be approved “in a couple of weeks”
The White House said on Wednesday that it is ready to quickly roll out COVID-19 vaccines for kids ages 5 to 11 if the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for that age group is authorized by the Food and Drug Administration and recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“Should the FDA and CDC authorize the vaccine, we will be ready to get shots in arms,” said White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients during a news briefing Wednesday morning.
The FDA independent advisory committee is scheduled to discuss and likely vote on October 26, while the CDC independent advisory committee meets on November 2 and 3.
The recommendation the FDA and CDC will consider is two doses that are one-third of the volume of an adult dose, spaced three weeks apart. It would take an additional two weeks for the vaccine to reach peak effectiveness.
King County, Washington is reporting over 87.6% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.
According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 91% of all staffed acute care beds are occupied, and 15.6% of patients have Covid-19. Statewide, hospitals have the staff to support approximately 610 additional acute care patients.
ICUs are at 85.6% of capacity statewide, with 25.0% of ICU patients fighting Covid-19 – an estimated 299 patients with 52% on ventilators. The state has the staff to support approximately 170 additional ICU patients.
On Monday, the 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients was 108. The Department of Health reported 1,106 Covid-19 patients statewide on October 19, with 155 requiring ventilators. The patient count is between 1,080 and 1,160 for the 10th day in a row.
Hospital readiness is slowly improving, including in the East Hospital Region. The declining number of acute care patients with Covid-19 is a leading indicator that ICU capacity will begin to improve by early November.
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%
– Bell Elementary (3*) – Blackwell Elementary (2*) – Carson Elementary (3*) – Einstein (1*) – Eastlake High (3*) – Finn Hill Middle School (3*) – Inglewood Middle School (1*) – Juanita Elementary (5*) – Juanita High School (4*) – Kamiakin Middle School (3*) – Kirk Elementary (1*) – Kirkland Middle School (1*) – Lakeview Elementary (5*) – Lake Washington High School (4*) – Mead Elementary (2*) – Northstar Middle (1*) – Redmond Elementary (1*) – Redmond Middle School (2*) – Redmond High School (2*) – Rosa Parks Elementary (2*) – Rose Hill Middle School (1*) – Timberline Middle School (6*) – Twain Elementary (2*)
None
Northshore
YELLOW
– Arrowhead Elementary (1) – Bothell High School (36**) – Canyon Creek Elementary (9) – Canyon Park Middle School (21) – Cottage Lake Elementary (4) – Crystal Springs Elementary (21) – East Ridge Elementary (1) – Frank Love Elementary (34) – Hollywood Hills Elementary (34) – Inglemoor High School (6) – Kenmore Elementary (8) – Kenmore Middle School (41**) – Kokanee Elementary (10) – Leota Middle School (1) – Lockwood Elementary (17) – Maywood Hills Elementary (1) – Moorlands Elementary (2) – North Creek High School (8) – Northshore Middle School (22) – Ruby Bridge Elementary (7) – Secondary Academy for Success (3) – Shelton View Elementary (3) – Skyview Middle School (3) – Sunrise Elementary (1) – Timbercrest Middle School (18) – Wellington Elementary (16) – Westhill Elementary (5) – Woodin Elementary (15) – Woodinville High School (3) – Woodmoor Elementary (3)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases
We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than ten active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.
The Bellevue School District reported one confirmed Covid-19 case at Lake Hills Elementary.
We received a parent confirmed report of three new Covid-19 cases at Kamiakin Middle School with 14 additional quarantines.
We continued to encourage parents to request improved daily data reporting from the Lake Washington School District.
Correction:On Tuesday, October 19, the daily summary for the Covid-19 update included a typographical error reporting nine confirmed COVID cases at Bellevue High School in the Northshore School District. The nine confirmed cases are at Bothell High School in the Northshore School District. We have corrected the daily summary and apologize for any confusion this may have caused.
Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville
Upated Kirkland Fire Department vaccination numbers
As of 11:15 a.m. on Tuesday, 100 of 116 City of Kirkland firefighters had provided proof of vaccination, according to Joy Johnston, Interim Communications Program Manager with the City of Seattle. To date, no firefighters have quit, retired, or been terminated due to the vaccine mandate.
Ms. Johnston reported that one firefighter is completing their vaccinations, and the remaining 15 have requested exemptions on either medical or religious grounds. Eight exceptions have been approved, and the remaining seven are under consideration.
The City reported that there is no reduction in service levels for the community.
National Round-Up
Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker reports 81,238 new cases and 2,357 deaths nationwide on Wednesday.
Our view – anyone unvaccinated has a future date with the next Covid-19 surge
On March 12, 2020 I wrote an essay that went viral on the situation in Kirkland, Washington, and made predictions on what would happen in the coming weeks across the United States. Unfortunately, those predictions became true.
I became deeply concerned about the Delta variant during the early days of July 2021 and just days after a collective declaration of victory over Covid-19. A combination of a nation that returned to normal too fast, low national vaccination rates, and air travel created a surge in new cases that rivaled January 2021. I noticed that outspoken critics of Covid-19 mitigation efforts were suddenly appealing for their constituents to get vaccinated, including Sean Hannity of Fox News, Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, among others. The change of tone was jarring to me. Privately I told those close to me, “they know something.”
By mid-July, I was wearing a mask again. Two weeks later, I sounded the alarm a new surge had arrived in the United States. I wanted to be wrong. Delta AY.1 raged across the United States and continues to in Alaska, Idaho. Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming. As the temperatures dropped with the arrival of fall, Delta cases are predictably spiking in Minnesota and Vermont.
Regrettably, I am predicting the next surge, and I now believe another wave is coming in January or February 2022. I am not the only person that is expressing concern over the Delta AY.4.2 variant. Katelyn Jetelina M.D. expressed worry about Delta A.4 on October 17 and warned that the United States could follow the same path as the U.K.
My concern over Delta Plus AY.4.2 has increased significantly
In the United Kingdom, Delta Plus AY.4.2 with additional spike mutations A222V and Y145H has grown to represent 6% of new infections at the end of September, and the number of cases with the mutated Delta variant is continuing to increase, according to British health officials.
Researchers are still studying the significance of Delta Plus, but early data indicates it is more transmissible than the Delta AY.1 and AY.2 variants, which currently make up most of the Covid-19 cases on the planet. Delta has an R0 of 6.0 among a completely unvaccinated population – equal to smallpox. Delta Plus has an estimated R0 of 6.6. That’s just enough of a difference to help it spread.
Delta Plus is not more deadly than Delta, but it does appear to make people sicker. Additionally, it does not appear to be anymore vaccine-resistant than Delta, but data out of the UK is showing us that both natural and vaccine immunity waves after six to eight months.
While new cases and hospitalizations are surging, the death rate in the U.K. has remained low, especially among the fully vaccinated. We have seen similar data out of Israel and right here in the United States. Most of the available vaccines remain highly effective at mitigating hospitalizations and severe COVID.
We don’t know if the worst surge for Covid-19 in Russia is Delta Plus, but for the first time since experiencing the first COVID case, 1,000 Russians are dying a day.
Earlier this week, the Russian government ordered anyone over 60 to stay home for four months. Today, Dictator President Vladimir Putin told the Cabinet backed the Cabinet’s proposal to declare a non-working week and keep Russian workers away from their offices.
Only 32% of Russians are vaccinated because of their deep devotion and love distrust of the Russian government. Ironically, in trying to sow global discord about the safety of vaccines from Western Europe and North American pharmaceutical companies to drive sales of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine, the disinformation campaign spread into Russia. Worse, the Sputnik V vaccine has performed poorly, only reinforcing distrust among the Russian people.
Several regions, or Oblasts, have implemented vaccine mandates, and many have already restricted large events, restaurants, and bars.
The same week we wrote about our concern that Covid-19 cases were rising again in the U.K. Putin went into quarantine after several people within his inner circle tested positive for COVID. Putin claims he was vaccinated with the Sputnik V vaccine in March. When he went into quarantine, a Kremlin spokesperson claimed that the people infected and Putin had recently received boosters.
Across Europe, new Covid-19 cases have increased for three weeks in a row. We don’t know if the Delta or the Delta Plus variant is driving the increase outside the U.K.
Holiday travel season is almost here and the borders between Canada and Mexico are opening at the same time
A new, more transmissible variant in the U.K., growing cases across Europe, and the land borders between the United States and Mexico reopening on November 8. Travel restrictions are ending just in time for the holidays. With the Delta surge winding down in the United States, a new sense of “we won” is spreading again. Over the next 2-1/2 months, travelers will hit the road and go on vacation.
November 25, Thanksgiving
November 29 – December 6, Hanukkah
December 24, Christmas Eve
December 25, Christmas Day
December 26, Kwanzaa
December 31, New Years Eve
January 1, New Years Day
January 4, 5, 6 and 7, Orthodox Christmas
Two years away from family, recreational travel to Canada and Mexico is available again, and holiday travelers will create an environment ripe for spreading a new variant, especially among the unvaccinated.
Assessment
I believe many issues are coming together to create a perfect storm at the end of the year. The United States is weary of Covid-19 everything. Former President Donald Trump oversold Operation Warp Speed and the vaccine program as a one-and-done shot that would provide protection forever. Coronaviruses include MERS, SARS, SAR-CoV-2, and the common cold. Coronaviruses are “slippery” by nature. That is, they mutate rather quickly compared to other viral diseases such as poliovirus. Many people feel there has been a bait and switch on what the vaccines would deliver.
Last year, we told our readers and viewers that it was very likely the Covid-19 vaccines would be similar to flu vaccines requiring a yearly dose to fight new mutations. We also told our readers that the vaccination cycle would not mirror the flu vaccine but would be more closely aligned to when people congregated indoors. In the warmer latitudes, vaccination programs would occur in the spring as people get ready to move to air conditioning. In the colder latitudes, vaccinations would come in the fall before people moved back to indoor activity.
Delta Plus has a beachhead in the U.K. and is almost certainly spreading across Europe – at a slow pace – but spreading. A combination of holiday travel, continued vaccine hesitancy, and more indoor activity due to cold weather will drive another surge that will start as the 2021 holiday season is winding down.
The impact will be tempered in the Southwestern United States and the Gulf Coast because moderate temperatures drive more outdoor activity. We have a tremendous amount of evidence that Covid-19 spreads indoors at a much higher rate than outdoors.
In the Northeast, the Great Lake states, the Midwest, the Rocky Mountain states, and low vaccinated areas of the Pacific Northwest, Delta Plus will find new hosts among the unvaccinated, the elderly, and immunocompromised. There will be no will among the government or the populous for any meaningful countermeasures.
How Bad
If all things remain as they are today, I believe we will see significant hot spots versus a national wave like we just witnessed. States like Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming may not get much reprieve from their current Delta-fueled surge. The isolation that winter brings to Alaska will probably benefit the state.
The upcoming surge will genuinely be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. In Washington state, counties such as Stevens, Whitman, Franklin, Lewis, Benton, Yakima, and Grant will be ripe for another significant event. Spokane County will likely feel pressure from neighboring Idaho again.
Wildcards
Five wildcards could soften the next surge. The first is vaccination among children from 5 to 11 years old. Regrettably, we will likely see another urban versus rural divide. This fall, we gathered reliable data showing children remain largely asymptomatic carriers who brought Covid-19 into their households. Over 140,000 American children have become orphans due to COVID, and the number is growing. The more young children fully vaccinated, the more we can stamp down the surge.
The next wildcard is the anti-viral drug molnupiravir. If the FDA approves the Merck/Ridgeback Biotherapeutics drug before the end of the year, if production and distribution can ramp up, if it is effective as it has been in Phase 3 testing, and if the current disinformation campaign against molnupiravir doesn’t create widespread mistrust, it could change the game.
The third wildcard is how many people get booster shots and if the FDA approves boosters for people as young as 40. If the FDA decides to expand booster shots before Veterans Day, consider that your “they know something.”
The next wildcard is severe weather. If the United States has widespread severe weather over the holidays that cripples air travel for an extended period, it could help slow the spread. Airlines are already stretched thin after laying off and forcing 25% to 30% of pilots into early retirement during 2020.
The final wildcard is Influenza. Flu was stopped in its tracks in 2020 because masks are highly effective at slowing the transmission, many schools systems were virtual, most people skipped the holidays, and mask wear was high. Flu can cut both ways this coming winter. A significant surge of flu could unintentionally cause isolation slowing down the spread of Covid-19.
It also could have the opposite effect. People sick with COVID could dismiss it as a cold or flu, take a handful of DayQuil and forge ahead with their day.
10 things you can do to help
If you’re not vaccinated, get vaccinated. Everyone has a future dance with Covid-19. There is overwhelming evidence that vaccination reduces your chance of getting infected and dramatically lowers your chance of hospitalization and death.
If you are eligible for a booster shot, get a booster and do it as quickly as possible.
if you have children from 12 to 15, get them vaccinated if they aren’t already.
If vaccination for 5 to 11 year olds is approved, get them vaccinated as quickly as possible. If the Pfizer vaccine becomes available on November 8 and your child is vaccinated on the same day, they won’t have full immunity until December 13.
If you travel over the holidays, consider not travel by air, and avoid crowded indoor spaces. If you will be with family members and you don’t know their vaccination status wear a mask. If you have family members who are at high risk of severe COVID, wear a mask.
If you travel to areas with low vaccination rates wear a mask, confrontations be damned.
Learn and memorize the different symtoms between Influenza and Covid-19.
Consider buying two at home rapid tests for each family member now to have on hand.
If you or someone in your household becomes sick with COVID like symptoms, stay home.
Get your influenza vaccine.
Final thought
I will close with the same final thought I had in July 2021. I have never wanted this badly to be wrong, and I hope I am.
State Updates
Due to the overwhelming amount of local news, we will not do a state update today. The situation in Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming can best be described as lousy, terrible, dire, and getting worse, in that order.
Misinformation
Taking the day off
Journalists, activists, and researchers defending the First Amendment
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