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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 2, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,046 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces continued to make gains in the Severodonetsk salient south and northwest of Lysychansk, but their progress has slowed considerably.

Russian and Chechen forces supported by Russia-backed separatists captured the settlement of Pryvillia northwest of Lysychansk after making and defending a wet crossing over the Siverskyi Donets River.

The line of conflict south and southwest of Lysychansk is little changed in the last 24 hours. Russian forces have not advanced further in the southeastern lowlands, held at the edge of Bila Hora. Ukrainian forces continue to defend the west bank of the Siveryski Donets River.

Fighting continues around the children’s hospital and rubber factory. Russian forces claim to have advanced and recaptured the gelatin factory, but there was no supporting information to back up the claim.

Intense fighting continues for control of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery with no change in territorial control. There is intense fighting in the Russian-controlled part of the refinery. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces claims that Russian forces have been pushed east of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line), but no information supports the claim.

Russian forces captured the settlement of Toplivka, north of the oil refinery, adding pressure to the GLOCs that support Lysychansk. Russian forces also advanced from Vovchoyarivka and reached Maloyazantseve, about 5 kilometers south of the Lysychansk plateau.

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – East of Bakhmut, Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by Russia-backed separatists, tried to improve their positions on the eastern edge of Klynove but were unsuccessful.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in Dolomitne and Novoluhanske. Ukrainian forces continued to hold their positions at the Vuhledar Power Plant.

There were no other attempts by Russian forces to advance west and secure the T-1302 Highway GLOC from Mykolaivka south to Pokrovske. Russian ground forces continued to rely on artillery, Grad rockets, and thermobaric rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). The artillery barrage around Lysychansk, including Pidlisne, Loskutivka, Vovchoyarivka, and Verkhnokamyanka, was similar to the intensity when Russian forces collapsed the Zolote-Hirske salient.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russia-backed separatists from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) performed tactical assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka but made no gains.

Kherson – Videos recorded before June 28 provided definitive evidence that the salient on the east bank of the Inhulets River between Davydiv Brid and Lozove collapsed in mid-June, and Ukrainian forces were pushed back across the river.

Odesa – Black Sea – The Russian air force conducted two sorties to bomb Snake Island. This was likely to destroy the equipment they abandoned after their withdrawal on June 30. The Russian Ministry of Defense is now claiming that Snake Island is still under Russian control after intense backlash from Kremlin supporters for leaving the island as a claimed gesture of “goodwill.”

Russian forces did not launch any other spoiling attacks, tactical or strategic offensives across the rest of Ukraine. Russian ground combat activity was limited to the Severodonetsk salient for two of the last three days.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russia continues to focus on securing the Luhansk oblast at all costs.
  2. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  3. The Ukrainian defense of Lysychansk has stiffened, likely frustrating the Kremlin’s plans for what was perceived would be a quick victory in the Luhansk oblast.
  4. Pro-Russian social media accounts are already resetting expectations, claiming that “2,000 Ukrainian forces are trapped” in Lysychansk, down from “10,000 will be surrounded” claims last week.
  5. Russian forces increasingly rely on artillery as a force multiplier but lack the troops to launch meaningful offensives outside of the Severodonetsk salient.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 1, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,045 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Odesa – Multiple Xh-22 air-to-sea cruise missiles hit the seaside resort town of Serhiivka, southwest of Odesa striking a rehabilitation center run by Moldova, an apartment building, and a hotel, killing 21 civilians and wounding more than 30. Ukrainian rescuers were still searching for survivors. The missiles were launched by Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, hours after the Russian garrison on Snake Island was evacuated.

Moldovan Health Minister Alla Nemerenko reported that one employee of the Children’s Rehabilitation Center of Moldova was killed in the attack. The center, approximately 100 kilometers from the international border with Moldova (63 miles) was for children and their families to relax on the Black Sea while the child received medical treatment and emotional support.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces continue to make incremental but critical gains in their attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of Severodonetsk.

Major General Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatist forces achieved a wet crossing at Pryvillia and now control half the settlement.

The line of conflict south and southwest of Lysychansk is little changed in the last 24 hours. Russian forces have not advanced further in the southeastern lowlands, held at the edge of Bila Hora to the children’s hospital and the rubber factory. After seven days, Russian forces ended their siege of the gelatin plant and retreated to Pidlisne to regroup.

Russian forces now control the southeast and northwest regions of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and continue to hold the area west of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line). Ukrainian forces have stabilized their positions within the refinery and have prevented further advances.

Russian forces renewed their efforts to advance on Bakhmut from Klynove but did not advance beyond the eastern edge of the settlement.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces attempted to recapture Dolomitne and Novoluhanske and were unsuccessful. Fighting for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant continued.

Mariupol – An Ondatra class Project 1176 Akula amphibious assault ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet hit a mine near Mariupol. There was no information on casualties or the amount of damage to the vessel.

South Donbas and Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to launch an offensive on Hulyaipole, likely from Marfopil, as a spoiling attack to slow the Ukrainian advance toward Polohy. Russian forces suffered severe casualties and not only withdrew but lost territory.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the Kherson Oblast along three fronts. The region west of the Dnipro River is steppe with mostly small settlements in open farmland, making measuring gains by liberated settlements challenging.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, Russia made a third attempt to recapture  Dementiivka but was unsuccessful. Positional battles were fought in Udy, Prudyanka, Tsupivka, and Velyki Prokhody. There were no changes in territorial control.

Izyum – Slovyansk – South of Izyum, Russian forces launched ad hoc attacks against Kurulka, Dolyna, Krasnopillya, and Bohorodychne. None of the offensives were successful.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 30, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,044 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Odesa – Overnight, Ukrainian forces attacked Snake Island off the coast of Odesa with NATO-provided long-range artillery and missiles. In the early stages of the attack, a Russian Pantsir antiaircraft system and supporting radar station were knocked out. The loss of the radar station disabled command and control of the other air defense assets on the island. The garrison requested to be evacuated and two ships from the Black Sea fleet, supported by helicopters, evacuated the Russian troops. A Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter was shot down during the evacuation. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the withdrawal, claiming it was a planned gesture of “goodwill.”

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – The situation in the Severodonetsk salient is complex, with continued reports from Pro-Russian accounts that Ukraine is withdrawing or has withdrawn from the city. There are repeated claims that Ukraine withdrew from Pryvillia. However, no videos, pictures, or state media reports have been produced to back up any of these reports.

There is significant evidence that Russian forces have seized control of parts of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line).

The line of conflict south and southwest of Lysychansk is little changed in the last 24 hours. Russian forces still control Bila Hora and have likely advanced past the children’s hospital and into the residential neighborhoods in the southeastern Lysychansk lowlands. This area is contested, with fighting continuing at the rubber factory. The battle for control of the gelatin plant has entered its sixth day.

NASA FIRMS data suggests there is intense fighting in Pidlisne. It is unlikely the state of control has changed, and this may represent a spoiling attack by Ukraine to ease pressure over the fight to control the oil refinery.

Russian forces have not been able to advance into the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Instead, they flanked the facility to the south, crossed the T-1302 Highway GLOC, and severed it. NASA FIRMS data suggests intense fighting in the eastern part of Verkhnokamyanske.

Russian forces also crossed the T-1302 Highway GLOC west of Mykolaivka and advanced into Spirne. The settlement is contested.

The remainder of Russian combat activity across Ukraine was limited to artillery, Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) rockets, airstrikes, and minor skirmishes across the rest of Ukraine.

Europe – Kremlin-backed Killnet launched cyberattacks on Norweigian government websites in response to Norway blocking land and air transit of sanctioned Russian goods to Svalbard. Norway insists it’s only enforcing existing sanctions, and port access to the archipelago remains unrestricted.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 29, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,043 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

The situation in the Severodonetsk salient is deteriorating as Russian forces increase pressure on the Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communications (GLOC – aka supply line), including the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway and the Siversk-Lysychansk route. The pattern of massive social media-driven disinformation campaigns from Pro-Russian accounts that occurred in Chernihiv, Mariupol, Sumy, and Severodonetsk is occurring again with the battle to control Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – Russian forces have pushed north from Bila Hora and have likely reached School Number 12 in the southeastern Lysychansk lowlands. Fighting continues at the rubber factory and the gelatin plant. Ukrainian forces have held the gelatin plant for five days.

Russian forces have secured Vovchyoyanka and reached the quarry at the northern tip of the settlement. Russian forces have advanced west from Vovchoyanka and are fighting at the southeast corner of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery but have not reached the T-1302 Highway GLOC.

There were reports, likely started by Igor Girkin, that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn entirely from Pryvillya and Russian forces had made a wet crossing at Kreminna. There is no information, videos, or pictures to support these claims. Given the continued Ukrainian resistance southwest, south, and southeast of Lysychansk, it is unlikely that a full-scale withdrawal has begun.

Russian forces crossed the T-1302 Highway west of Mykolaivka in an attempt to capture Spirne but were unsuccessful and pushed back to the original line of conflict.

Heavy shelling of the T-1302 Highway continued in Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk].

Bakhmut – Russian forces attempted to advance on Klynove, east of Bakhmut but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Bakhmut as well as Travneve.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Novoluhansk and Travneve on June 28. Both settlements were previously coded as under Russian control. There is fighting for control of the power plant on the northern edge of the Vuhlehirske Reservoir.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russian forces tried to recapture Pavilvka but were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were only artillery exchanges and skirmishes.

Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka north of Kharkiv city again but were unsuccessful.

Izyum – On the Izyum axis, Russian forces attacked Dovhalivka and Zalyman again. This does not represent a new offensive and is an attempt to distract and redirect Ukrainian military assets, which are interdicting the Russian M-03 GLOC through Vesele [Kharkiv 49°23’16.6″N 37°11’52.8″E]. Russian forces made piecemeal attacks on Mazanivka and Dolyna in an attempt to advance on Slovyansk. The understaffed units suffered heavy losses and were unsuccessful.

Odesa – Black Sea- Ukrainian forces “shelled” Snake Island, reporting that several Russian military assets, including a radar station and a Pansir antiaircraft system, were destroyed.

Russia continued to launch Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) and cruise missiles into Ukraine. Missile strikes hit Dnipro, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kremenchuk, and Kharkiv.

In all other regions in Ukraine, there was no change in territorial control and only positional battles.

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