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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Kherson Cut Off – July 27, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 22 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,072 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – Russian forces remain blocked at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Another attempt to advance on Verkhnokamyanske was made, and it was unsuccessful. Russian forces also attacked Hryhorivka, supported by airstrikes, but could not break through Ukrainian defenses.

Northeast Donetsk – Positional battles continued in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. On the morning of July 25, Ukrainian forces reported they had liberated Berestove. Late on July 25, it appeared Russian forces had recaptured the settlement for the second time Early on the morning of July 27, Ukrainian forces recaptured the town. The village is completely destroyed from months of fighting, and the T-1302 Highway is badly damaged.

Bakhmut – East of Soledar, Russian forces occupied Stryapivka temporarily. They likely attempted to extend too far into Soledar and were pushed back by Ukrainian forces. Fighting for control of the village continued.

Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group claimed to have fully secured Pokrovske, east of Bakhmut. Reports of continued fighting, artillery, and airstrikes indicate that gains have likely been overstated.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant and Luhanske on the evening of July 25. Ukrainian forces also withdrew from Novoluhanske to avoid becoming encircled. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group were confirmed to be on the power plant grounds. Russian forces attempted to advance from Roty to Semyirya to seal off retreating Ukrainian troops and were unsuccessful. Russian forces needed 62 days to advance 5.5 kilometers and secure the power plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Pavlivka and were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges from Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces using High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacked the Antonovskiyy Bridge for the third time and the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge. The Antonovskiyy Bridge is severely damaged with significant structural damage. Russian state media reported the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge was damaged but did not provide further details. Russian forces in Kherson are now cut off from road and rail lines on the west side of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces have completed construction of a pontoon bridge adjacent to the destroyed Darivika Bridge over the Inhulets River. Due to poor operational security, it is likely the bridge will be a priority target in the coming days.

Operational Command South reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Bilohirka, indicating the settlement is still under Russian control. It was also reported that Andriivka [Kherson] and Lozove are liberated.

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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role and Kh-59 cruise missiles at Mykolaiv. Up to eight missiles struck an already destroyed railroad bridge over the Inhulets River,  one missile hit the port, and another hit a thermal plant.

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives from July 25 to July 26 north or northeast of Kharkiv. Both sides fired artillery rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and fired from tanks.

Ukrainian forces used a Switchblade 300 kamikaze drone to attack a car at the Russian border checkpoint in Troebortnoe, north of Kharkiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims one person was killed, a Moldovian citizen, and two were wounded. Ukraine claims that two FSB agents were killed.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated. With reconnaissance in force, Russian forces attempted to advance on Chepil and suffered heavy losses.

There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces withdrew from Yatskivka and Studenok. We had previously reported that Russian troops had been pushed entirely out of Bohorodychne. Additionally, between July 21 and July 25, the bridge between Russian-controlled Yarmivka and Studenok was destroyed. In Russian-controlled Borova, a HIMARS strike hit the railroad yard, where Russian military equipment was staged for transport.

The Exiled Borova City Council reported that Russian troops have been withdrawing from the Izyum axis since July 22. Troops are reportedly moving north, and the field hospital for wounded Russian soldiers in Borova was closed.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and rockets fired by MLRS struck the settlements of Esman, Krasnopillya, and Seredyna-Buda.

Chernihiv – Viacheslav Chaus, head of the Chernihiv Oblast State and Military Administration, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Leonivka and Hirsk.

Odesa – The Russian air force launched a massive attack on the village of Zatoka and the already destroyed Zatoka bridge. Up to 13 cruise missiles hit the village and the disabled span. The missile attack damaged or destroyed 155 buildings in the restive seaside resort town.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
  2. Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.

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Port of Odesa hit by cruise missiles – Russia negotiated grain deal in bad faith – July 23, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,068 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations to permit grain exports from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port, Port of Odesa, and Pivdennyi [South] Port, Kalibr cruise missiles launched by the Russian Black Sea fleet slammed into the Port of Odesa.

Russia and Ukraine did not sign an agreement between the two nations, instead signing separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations, which would permit Ukraine to export up to 20 million tons of grain over the next 120 days. The agreement did not specify that Russia could not attack Ukrainian ports explicitly. However, with continued attacks, civilian port operations with cargo ships entering and exiting will be impossible.

Insurance rates for cargo vessels operating in the Black Sea have already skyrocketed, with over a dozen commercial vessels seized, bombed, or hit by Russian missiles since February 25 and one bulk carrier striking a mine.

Luhansk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military head, reported that Ukraine still controls two settlements in the Luhansk Oblast.

Northeast Donetsk – Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Ivano-Daryivka through Spirne and were unsuccessful.

Russian forces fired artillery at civilians, civilian infrastructure, and Ukrainian military positions in Siversk, Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Spirne. The Russian air force also attacked Sprine.

Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.

Bakhmut – Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group made small advances into the southern part of Pokrovske. Limited fighting occurred near the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant.

Artillery was fired on Bakhmut, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Pokrovske, and Vesela Dolyna.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Vodyane from Vesele.

HIMARS rockets struck an ammunition depot within the machinery plant in Russian-controlled Horlivka, northeast of Donetsk. Secondary explosions thundered across the city as the ammunition stored in the factory started to cook off.

In the south Donbas, there were artillery exchanges from Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Russian state media claims Ukraine attacked the Antonovskiy Bridge for the third time, but there are no photos or videos to support the reports. Russian officials report they will not attempt to repair the bridge. Instead, they plan to build a pontoon bridge to the south. The bridge is reported to be severely damaged and will take too long to repair.

Ukraine, likely using HIMARS rockets, moderately damaged the Russian-controlled Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River. The bridge is a critical water crossing on the 140-kilometer detour route for Russian armor and military supplies after the Antonovskiy Bridge was damaged in attacks earlier this week. Without the crossing, a large region of Russia-controlled Kherson will be cutoff from overland supply routes

Multiple reports are quoting different sources that up to 2,000 Russian troops are partially encircled in Vysokopillya.

Presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych provided additional details during a television interview, which clarified the situation more. Arestovych reported that Russian forces are 75% encircled in Vysokopillya. On July 21, Russian forces attempted a breakout by heading south through the opening in the salient but were pushed back by Ukrainian artillery fire.

Arestovuch reported they are two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) trapped, with an estimated 1,000 troops blocked from leaving the town. He said that Ukraine would not offer a green corridor for evacuation but would likely demand their surrender.

Russian forces captured Oleksandrivka [Kherson] on the banks of the Dnipro River.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed the T-2207 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) south of Davydiv Brid.

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Zaporizhia – A video showed Russian tent barracks on the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar being attacked by kamikaze drones. The tents were located about 300 meters from the reactor blocks. Using a nuclear power plant for barracks and as a firebase to launch artillery and rockets represents a break from accepted military protocol, which considers nuclear power plants “no go” zones. Three Russian soldiers were killed and nine wounded in the attack. Additionally, a Grad Mulitple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which was parked between two cooling towers for the plant, was damaged in the attack. The video and pictures published after the strike show that no part of the nuclear power plant was damaged.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted a ground assault on Udy and there were skirmishes in Tsupivka and Dementiivka.

Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.

Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.

Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis. In Prydonetske, Ukrainian artillery destroyed an entire artillery company, including eight 152mm towed howitzers, ammunition, and command and control. Prydonetske is located east of Izyum in the area Russians call “Sherwood forest.”

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyginsk and Krasnopil were shelled.

Odesa – Four Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Russian Black Sea Fleet targeted the Port of Odesa, with two striking the facility. Serhii Bratchuk, an Odesa Military administration spokesperson, said two missiles hit the port, and Ukraine’s air defense shot down two. The port suffered moderate damage, and a fire broke out, but the missiles missed the grain silos. The attack came less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to provide safe corridors for grain exports. The reaction from officials was swift and furious.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres “unequivocally” condemned the attack through a spokesperson.

“Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “This indicates only one thing: no matter what Russia says and promises, it will find ways how not to fulfill it. Geopolitically, with weapons, bloody or not, but it has several vectors, [this is] how it always acts.”

“That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added on Twitter. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said the bloc “strongly condemns” the attack.

People’s Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko wrote on Telegram, “There is a fire in the port of Odesa. Here is a grain corridor for you. These bastards are signing contracts with one hand and sending missiles with the other.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Nikolenko wrote, “It took less than 24 hours for the Russian Federation to launch a missile strike on the territory of the city of Odesa to question the agreement, and the promises it made to the UN and Turkey in the document signed yesterday in Istanbul.”

“The Russian missile is Vladimir Putin spitting in the face of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, who made a huge effort to reach the deal, and to whom Ukraine is grateful.”

The US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget A. Brink, called the Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa “outrageous,” writing, “Russia strikes the port city of Odesa less than 24 hours after signing an agreement to allow shipments of agricultural exports. The Kremlin continues to weaponize food. Russia must be held to account.”.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Saturday that Russia claimed it had “nothing to do” with the strikes.

“It really concerned us that such an event happened after we signed the deal on grain shipments. We are disturbed as well. But we continue to fulfill our responsibilities about this agreement, and we also expressed in our meetings that we are in favor of the parties to continue their cooperation here calmly and patiently,” said Akar.

Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was hit with up to 13 Russian cruise missiles, causing significant damage, killing three and wounding nine. The attack was a joint operation between the Russian air force and navy, with five Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and eight Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet hitting the region. Cruise missiles also slammed into the railroad facilities at Ukrzaliznytsia. An electrical substation was also targeted, knocking out electrical power in parts of the oblast capital of Kropyvnytskyi.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
  2. Ground offensives by Russian forces have become fewer and smaller a week after the “operational pause” was declared over.
  3. It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine strikes Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson again – July 20, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 21 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,065 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces still have not fully secured the oblast. Fighting for control of Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka continues.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Verkhnokamyanske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and the southern edge of Zolotarivka, from the T-1302 Highway, north of the railroad yard. Fighting in eastern Verkhnokamyanske continued, with Russian and Ukrainian sources calling it intense. Russian forces hit Ukrainian positions with artillery, rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and air strikes.

In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Zolotarivka area toward Verknokamyanske, Serebryanka, and Bilhorivka and were unsuccessful. Russian armor remains pinned at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Russian forces continue to attempt to push Ukraine out of Bilohorivka after its partial liberation on July 13 and have not been successful. Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces attacked Bilohorivka overnight in a rare night offensive and were unsuccessful.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, with Haidai reporting that the reconnaissance in force group advanced from Zolotarivka. The advance was unsuccessful and suffered heavy losses.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Spirne and Ivano-Darivka and were unsuccessful. To the south, Russian forces attempted to advance on Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful.

In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Bakhmut – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Bakhmut. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion with Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group dug in on the southern edge of Pokrovske.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in the area of the power plant. Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Ukrainian forces launched a night attack from the plant in an unspecified direction and were unsuccessful. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on the power plant and were also unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

The settlement of Hulyaipole was shelled by Russian forces causing major damage in the downtown region. The city has been shelled almost daily since March.

Kherson – Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge a second time with a barrage of 12 rocket fired from NATO-provided HIMARS, hitting the critical Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line) 11 times. Occupation leaders described the condition of the bridge as “poor.” Russian state media reported extensive damage to a concentrated area of the bridge deck, with several holes through the structure. Cars were still able to pass, but officials announced the bridge would be close to traffic for several days.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims five missiles were fired and four were impacted, but several videos showed three explosions on and just adjacent to the bridge. The bridge is the primary road connection across the Dnipro River, connecting the western and eastern regions of the Kherson oblast. The bridge was moderately damaged in the attack but is likely still serviceable.

A Russian Su-35 fighter plane was shot down near Nova Kakhovka. Initially, it was reported Ukraine shot down the aircraft near Lyubymivka by Nova Kakhovka. Russian social media accounts claimed it was a friendly fire incident. The Ukrainian Air Forces confirmed overnight a surface-to-air missile shot down the aircraft. The pilot was able to eject and landed in Russian-controlled territory.

Operational Command South reported that Russian positions in Snihurivka were hit by an air strike, destroying an ammunition depot.

Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Ukraine had liberated Arkhanhelske along the east bank of the Inhulets River. Ukrainian government officials have been reluctant to release detailed information on combat operations to protect operational security.

Fighting continued near Snihurivka, with the Ukrainian air force attacking Russian positions.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian forces fired Grad rockets from MLRS into civilian areas of Nikopol. More than 30 rockets hit houses and apartments, killing two and wounding nine. Ukrainian forces apparently retaliated by launching two “kamikaze” drones at Russian positions within the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. There were reports that two Russian soldiers were in the drone attack, and smoke was seen rising from near the compound.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that a small group of Russian troops attempted to advance on Udy, northwest of Kharkiv. The platoon size group suffered heavy losses and retreated across the international border.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrovne, Novomykolaivka, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Dolyna, Chepil, Semylanne, Hrushuvakha, Adamivka, Barvinkove, Bohorodychne, Arkhanhelivka, and Nova Dmytrivka.

A Russian missile killed one person when it hit the center of Kramatorsk and badly damaged an apartment building.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok.

Sumy – The settlements of Mykolaiv [Sumy], Bilopolska, Novoslobidska, Khotynska, and Esman was shelled by Russian forces from across the international border.

Odesa – Black Sea – A warehouse filled with debris in the port of Odesa was hit by a Russian Kh-59 cruise missile fired by a Su-35 aircraft over the Black Sea. The warehouse was a total loss, but there were no injuries. Russian state media claimed the warehouse was an ammunition depot for NATO-provided weapons and munitions, but there were no secondary explosions, and the fire, which sent clouds of black smoke over the city, was quickly extinguished.

Daily Assessment

  1. It has been four days since the operational pause “ended,” and Russian forces have been unable to gain territory.
  2. There are growing questions on how much combat strength Russian forces have left in Ukraine, given the inability to muster attacks with groups larger than a company with adequate armor, artillery, and air support.
  3. While Russia is setting conditions to advance on Siversk, Ukraine is setting conditions for a broader counteroffensive in Kherson.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Ukraine devastates Russian positions in Kherson using HIMARS – July 19, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,064 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui ordered Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov to prioritize destroying Ukrainian artillery and “long-range missile” systems as NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) wreak havoc on Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) and logistics. With Russian forces losing ground north of Slovyansk and suffering from Special Operation Forces (SOF) and artillery attacks in the forests west of Izyum, Shogui had indicated that Slovyansk was not the next target for the Russian military. It is more likely that Siversk and Bakhmut in the northeastern part of the Donetsk oblast are where Russia will focus next.

Luhansk – In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Zolotarivka area toward Verknokamyanske, Serebryanka, and Bilhorivka and were unsuccessful. Russian armor remains pinned at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Berestove or Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and held their positions near Spirne. They relied on artillery, rocket fire from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and air strikes.

In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Bakhmut – The most intense fighting continues to be in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant. Russian forces tried to advance from Myronivka toward the power plant and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Self-declared leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces had advanced north of Avdiivka, cutting off the GLOC to the embattled city and creating a partial encirclement. Russian FSB Colonel and former commander of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Girkin, dismissed the claim, noting that the DNR doesn’t have the combat power for an offensive of this scale.

Kherson – Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge with rockets fired from HIMARS, hitting the critical GLOC at least twice. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims five missiles were fired and four were impacted, but several videos showed three explosions on and just adjacent to the bridge. The bridge is the primary road connection across the Dnipro River, connecting the western and eastern regions of the Kherson oblast. The bridge was moderately damaged in the attack but is likely still serviceable.

HIMARS rockets hit an ammunition depot in Raiske, west of Nova Khakovka, producing secondary explosions. A second HIMARS strike destroyed a Russian barracks and logistics center near the hydroelectric plant on the bank of the Dnipro River. Another Russian ammunition depot in Beryslav on the north bank of the Dnipro River was also destroyed.

Operational Command South reported that Russian positions in Snihurivka were hit by an air strike, destroying an ammunition depot.

There was heavy fighting in Arkhanhelske, with Pro-Russian accounts reporting Ukraine had almost taken full control of the settlement.

Dnipropetrovsk – Dmytro Orlov, the exiled mayor of Enerhodar, reported that nine Russian soldiers stationed at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had been hospitalized after an “incident,” and several others had died. The European Commission Joint Research Center Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring map showed that radiation levels were normal across Ukraine.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian Armed Forces SOF raided Dementiivka north of Kharkiv, pushing Russian forces out of the settlement, killing 36 soldiers and capturing one. Ukrainian military leaders claim they captured the Russian unit commander with the Northern Fleet Russian Navy naval infantry.

In the settlement of Chuhuiv southeast of Kharkiv, an apartment building was hit by a Russian missile. The village of Lebyazhe and the town of Pechenihy were shelled.

Izyum – Southwest of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed further back from Dibrovne to the southern edge of Sulyhivka and liberated Brazhkivka.

Odesa – Black Sea – Northwest of Odesa, the settlement of Dachne was hit by several Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea. Pro-Russian accounts claim the target was Ukrainian command and control and ammunition depot. There weren’t any secondary explosions from the strike. Pro-Russian account Rybar reported that a cruise missile also hit the already severely damaged and defunct Zatoka bridge. Officials in Odesa reported six were wounded but no fatalities.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces appear to be struggling to renew large-scale combat operations three days after the operational pause ended.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense is holding off on an offensive to capture Slovyansk after declaring it was a priority on March 25.
  3. Selecting Siversk and Bakhmut as the first targets for the renewed Russian offensives indicates that troop strength remains weak.

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Ukraine liberates towns in Luhansk and Donetsk- July 16, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,061 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Luhansk – On July 12, Ukrainian artillery shelled newly established Russian positions in Bilohorivka to set conditions for a counteroffensive. The next day, members of the Kraken Battalion staged a counteroffensive within the town itself. They engaged in intense house-to-house fighting that lasted for hours, forcing the Russian garrison to surrender. At least a squad-sized group of Russians were captured. The entire counteroffensive was documented.

Based on the verified raid of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka and Serebryanka in Donetsk are assessed as under Ukrainian control. Additionally, Zolotarivka remains contested. Ukrainian forces also destroyed Russian armored vehicles on the western edge of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on the hamlets of Nahirne and Bilohorivka [Donetsk], suffered significant losses, and returned to their defensive positions. The Ukrainian stronghold of Siversk was shelled, as well as Ivano-Darivka and Berestove.

Bakhmut – Russian artillery continued to concentrate on the towns around Bakhmut. Russian forces shelled Nova Kamyanka, Soledar, Pokrovske, Bakhmut, and Paraskoviivka.

The claims by the military officials of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic that Stryapivka and Nova Kamyanka were captured were false. An analysis of a propaganda video released by the republic claiming Stryapivka was captured revealed it was filmed in the town of Volodymyrivka. On Friday, Russian forces shelled and launched an air strike on Ukrainian positions in Nova Kamyanka.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, Russian forces made several small attacks with platoon-sized groups toward Luhanske and Vershyna and were unsuccessful. Ukraine continues to control the Vuldehar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – South of Donetsk, Russian forces attempted to advance on Solodke, Volodymyrivka, and Pavlivka in the most significant offensive effort in weeks. The attacks were unsuccessful and Russian forces suffered significant losses at Pavlivka.

There are unconfirmed reports by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that a Russian Su-25 was shot down in the area of Orikhiv.

Kherson – In Kherson, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange artillery, rockets, and air strikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykoaliv] to Osokorivka. There weren’t any documented changes in territorial control.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers launched six Kh-101 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea region at Dnipro. Four were intercepted, but two hit an “industrial enterprise” and the street of a civilian area. Three people were killed and at least 15 wounded in the daytime attack. One of the people killed was a city bus driver.

Kharkiv – there were no ground attacks of significance from either belligerent. A Russian cruise missile, likely a Kh-101 based on the size of the crater, missed its target and landed just outside of a school, causing moderate damage.

Sumy – The settlements of Shalyhyne, Hlukhiv, Seredyna-Buda, and Bilopillya was hit by mortar fire and artillery fired from positions within Russia. One person was killed and four wounded in Hlukhiv. Pro-Russian social media accounts claimed that Ukrainian forces fired counterbattery across the international border into the Russian settlements of Neslitsy and Dronovka.

Izyum – South of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed out of Bohorodychne with Ukrainian forces advancing to the bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The Russian military has been blocked from advancing toward Slovyansk from the settlement, which has been shattered after almost two months of fighting.

Southwest of Izyum, the line of conflict has become very porous, with Russian and Ukrainian forces trading control of Dibrovne and Sulyivka after Russian troops retreated from Kurukla on July 14.

Odesa – A Russian cruise missile struck a warehouse in Odesa, causing a major fire. There were no reports of casualties because the workers evacuated to a shelter when the air raid sirens went off. Thick black smoke rose above the city, but there weren’t any secondary explosions or indications that a munitions depot was hit.

Two Russian Su-24 aircraft bombed Snake Island in another attempt to destroy the equipment left behind during the June 30 retreat. At the mouth of the Danube River, 30 kilometers west, dozens of civilian bulk carrier ships are at anchor, waiting to load Ukrainian grain in Romania.

Kyiv – A Russian cruise missile was shot down in the Bilotserkivskyi District of Kyiv, with debris landing in Irpin. The warhead was located and defused, and there were no injuries.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to systematically terrorize Ukraine’s civilian population, using outdated munitions with low accuracy.
  2. While the Kherson axis has stabilized in the short term, the Izyum axis is becoming problematic for Russian forces due to supply interdiction and a continued heavy focus on the Donbas.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for the next Russian offensive.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 8, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,052 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 7, no territorial changes related to liberation or capture were reported, nor major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In the Luhansk oblast, Ukrainian forces are contesting control of Bilohorivka to the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces destroyed the Russian wet crossing in Pryvillya between July 3 – 6.

Ukrainian officials and Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Luhansk is not under complete Russian control. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) showed hot spots east of Topolivka and in the vicinity of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

In Russian-occupied Severodonetsk, an insurgency has already formed. Threats against the Chechen occupying forces and “wanted posters” have started to appear in the city.

Northeast Donetsk – There were widespread artillery and MLRS barrages by Russian forces in northeast Donetsk, likely setting conditions for a future offensive.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance into Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were able to advance into the eastern part of Verknokamyanske. Russian forces were held at the eastern edge of Spirne. Further south, Russian forces tried to capture the settlement of Berestove and were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut – East of Bakhmut, Russian forces have started to advance on Vesela Dolyna.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Vershyna. There were unsuccessful. Ukraine maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant and pushed Russian forces back incrementally in Luhanske. Russian forces suffered significant losses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Ukrainian artillery or rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) struck the Kirovs’kyi fuel depot causing a massive fire. An ammunition depot was also destroyed near the George Dimitrov Number 112 school in Donetsk.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets destroyed an ammunition depot in Shakhtarsk, 60 kilometers east of Donetsk.

Near Russian-controlled Melitopol, insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Novobohdanivka and Troitske.

Kherson – In Kherson, the sound of small arms fire could be heard within the city. The Russian base at Chornobaivka was attacked with artillery, and Ukrainian officials reported that up to 25 vehicles were destroyed. The area targeted was a repair center for light to moderately damaged Russian military vehicles, contributing to the unusually high number of losses.

Russian forces are trying to slow the Ukrainian advance west and northwest of Kherson, targeting Ukrainian-controlled areas with artillery and rockets fired from MLRS.

North of Kherson city, NASA FIRMS suggests there is fighting west of Ukrainian-controlled Lozove in Andriivka. Ukrainian attack helicopters fired on Russian positions in Davydiv Brid. Russian forces used artillery and MLRS to interdict the Ukrainian GLOC on the T-2207 highway from Osokorivka. Additionally, Russian forces did reconnaissance in force with understaffed platoons, launching two raids on Dobryanka and one on Myroliubivka. None of the attempts were successful.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces made another spoiling attack on Sosnivka and Dementiivka. Neither attack was unsuccessful. Otherwise, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery fire along the frozen front.

At least two Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck the Nemyshlianskyi District of Kharkiv city, killing three civilians.

Izyum – There are reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed the recently repaired railroad bridge in Russian-controlled Kupyansk, north of Izyum. Southwest of Pisky-Radkivski, NATO-provided HIMARS systems were fired at a forward operating training base and staging area for Luhansk (LNR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) conscripts, Russian Federation Armed Forces contract volunteers, and terrorists with the Imperial Legion reporting to Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group.

Russian forces made another ad hoc advance into Bohorodychne, backed by intense artillery fire. They were unsuccessful and returned to previously held defensive lines on the edge of the settlement.

Sumy – In the Sumy oblast, Russian forces fired small arms into the settlement of Shalyhyne.

Odesa – Black Sea – On July 7 under cover of darkness, combat divers from Ukraine’s 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center used underwater vehicles to reach Snake Island. Special forces cleared sea and land mines, performed reconnaissance, and raised several Ukrainian flags. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Serhii Bratchuk of the Odesa Military Administration reported that the Russian air force fired two cruise missiles at Snake Island that struck the pier on the island’s north side at dawn.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles at the disabled Moldovian flagged tanker Millenial Spirit. The vessel was abandoned at anchor off the coast of Odesa after it was attacked on February 25. It is reported the ship is on fire but still afloat. The smoke was visible from Odesa.

Two more Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles hit grain warehouses near Odesa, holding 35 tons of cereals awaiting export.

Beyond Ukraine – Belarusian armed forces have extended ongoing military training exercises until July 16. In another provocation, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Major General Ruslan Kosygin, said that in the event of “Western provocations,” Belarusian forces will strike primarily on the infrastructure of Poland.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, artillery and MLRS are still being used along the line of conflict, and civilians and civilian infrastructure continue to be targeted.
  2. Combat activity in the last 12 hours raises questions on whether the reports of an operational pause are authentic.
  3. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that in Ukraine, “we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,” is saber-rattling from the Kremlin unless Putin intends to declare war formally and mobilize.
  4. It appears that Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk, given the resistance against Russian advances on the edges of the Luhansk oblast.
  5. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed two to four HIMARS units on July 6 were patently false, and the NATO-provided HIMARS attacked critical military targets in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts.
  6. Russian forces continue to lose ground in Kherson despite bringing in reserve troops and increasing artillery fire.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 7, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,051 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 6, there weren’t any territorial changes related to liberation or capture, nor major combat operations by either belligerent across the entire theater. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Donetsk regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko urged the 350,000 civilians still living in the oblast to evacuate the area. Kyrylenko has stressed that fewer civilians will enable combat forces to focus on fighting and be less concerned about collateral damage.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Southwest of Lysychansk, Ukrainian forces topped a Russian advance toward Spirne.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok and may be setting conditions to start an advance from Lyman.

The most intense fighting in Ukraine was in the Svitlodarsk bulge. Russian forces tried to capture Novoluhanske and Luhanske and were not successful. Ukraine also maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. Insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak in an attempt to disrupt Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines)

Kherson – In Kherson, Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot adjacent to the Kherson city train station. Residents reported they could hear small arms fire coming from the direction of Chornobaivka.

Fighting continued near Snihurivka and at the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Inhulets River at Bila Krynytsya-Bilohirka.

Russian forces fired artillery and MLRS in the northern part of Kherson in an attempt to slow the Ukrainian advance. Fighting continued in Arkhanhel’s’ke.

Kharkiv – Russian forces attempted a spoiling attack on Sosnivka and were unsuccessful. Positional fighting near Vesele left the town contested but leaning towards Ukrainian control. Russian forces did airstrikes on Rubizhne [Kharkiv], a no man’s land in northeastern Kharkiv.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrivne, Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Velkya Komyshuvakha. Russian troops made a small advance on Kurulka to test Ukrainian defenses and retreated.

Sumy – The settlements of Myropilska, Krasnopilska, and Khotinska were attacked by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). There were no injuries reported.

Odesa – Ukrainian forces arrived on Snake Island and did a flag-raising. There is no intention of occupying the island at this time. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed a cruise missile fired at Odesa.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Federation Armed Forces entered a theaterwide operational pause, although we cannot determine how long this will last.
  2. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire by Russian forces is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  3. Russian forces appear to be setting conditions to advance on Slovyansk-Kramatorsk when the operational pause ends.
  4. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.
  5. Russian forces continue to struggle in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces continue to make incremental gains and can attack Kherson city.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 6, 2022

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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 19 weeks since the Russia-Ukraine war started and 3,050 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previously announced scaleback of the war in Ukraine, limiting total victory to securing the Donbas, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, as well as securing the land bridge to Crimea, has been pushed aside. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu declared the Russian army will continue the “special military operation” in Ukraine until the tasks set by President Putin are “fully completed.”

Chairman of the Chechen Parliament Magomed Daudov declared a jihad in Ukraine to defend Muslims in Europe during a visit to Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration that the Luhansk oblast had been captured was spoiled less than 24 hours later, with Ukrainian forces contesting the settlement of Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Pro-Russian accounts and the Kremlin reported that “cleansing” was continuing south of Lysychansk to clear the area of remaining Ukrainian troops. There continues to be no evidence that Russian forces captured significant numbers of Ukrainian troops, weapons, or ammunition in Severodonetsk, Zolote-Hirske, or Lysychansk.

There was limited fighting west of Popasna, with Russian forces likely securing the settlement of Spirne.

Northeast Donetsk – Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the terrorist organization Imperial Legion and Russian artillery, captured Klynove, east of Bakhmut.

Russian forces are likely attempting to collapse the Svitlodarsk bulge, launching an offensive toward Vershyna. They were unsuccessful. Fighting continued in Novoluhanske and at the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) recaptured the settlement of Novobakhmutivka, southwest of Horlivka.

Northeast of Donetsk city, a video from Russian state media showed that Ukrainian forces collapsed a small Russian-controlled salient south of Pisky and are in control of the Russian defensive positions.

In Donetsk city, a Russian ammunition depot stored in a heavy truck dealership was destroyed by a Ukrainian artillery strike. There were multiple secondary explosions. Ukrainian forces also destroyed a large ammunition depot near the railroad station in Donetsk, with multiple secondary explosions after the strike.

There were reports of fresh explosions in the port of Berdyansk. Russian and Ukrainian officials have stated this is related to unstable munitions exploding during an attempted recovery of the Large Landing Ship (LLS) Saratov, which sank on March 24. The Saratov was hit by a Tochka-U missile which damaged two more LLS vessels and heavily damaged a cargo ship.

In Zaporizhia, Ukrainian forces continue to advance on Polohy. Fighting and artillery strikes were reported in Novopokrovka.

Kherson – The Ukrainian counteroffensive continued in Kherson, with significant gains made. Ukrainian forces liberated Myrne, northwest of Kherson. Russian forces suffered significant losses near Tomyna Balka from artillery fire and air strikes.

Satellite images from July 5 show the airport and Russian base at Chornobaivka suffered heavy damage after two ammunition depots were destroyed days apart. The Russian base appeared abandoned.

Multiple videos showed fighting and artillery exchanges on the northern edge of Snihurivka, with Ukrainian forces 3 kilometers north of the city limits. The Ukrainian air force also attacked Russian defensive positions.

Ukrainian forces reestablished a wet crossing over the Inhulets River near Velke Artakove and Bila Krynytsya. The settlements of Lozove and Bilohirka are under Ukrainian control. Pro-Russian accounts reported that Ukrainian forces had pushed to Sukhyi Stavok, almost 10 kilometers south. There were reports of renewed fighting in Davydiv Brid. A Russian ammunition depot in Velkya Oleksandrivka was destroyed.

In the north region of the Kherson oblast, Ukrainian forces collapsed the Vysokopillya salient, liberating the settlement of Olhyne. Intense fighting in Arkhanhelske continued, with a Russian ammunition depot destroyed on July 5. Ukrainian forces fired artillery at Russian troops retreating from Olhyne, northeast of Novopetrivka.

Mykolaiv – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the city of Mykolaiv.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched attacks in three directions from the stronghold in Kozacha Lopan on the settlements of Sosnivka, Prudyanka, and Dementiivka. None of the attacks were successful.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Krasnopillya and suffered heavy losses. Ukrainian artillery hit Russian positions in Dovhenke and Sosnove, destroying Main Battle Tanks (MBT), Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV), and support vehicles. Russian forces also attempted to advance southeast of Velyka Komyshuvahka and suffered significant losses.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Chernihiv – Russian forces shelled and used MLRS on the border villages of Mkhy and Bleshnia in the northern region of Chernihiv.

Sumy – Russian helicopters fired rockets at the Esman in the Sumy oblast.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukrainian air defenses intercepted three Russian cruise missiles near Odesa.

Western Ukraine – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the Yarmolyntsi in the Khmelnytskyi oblast.

Daily Assessment

  1. Phase 2 of the Russia-Ukraine War is over.
  2. Russian ground forces in eastern Ukraine appear to be in an operational pause.
  3. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire in the northeastern region of the Donetsk oblast is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  4. Russian forces are struggling in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces are making steady territorial gains from the north, the west, and the southeast.
  5. Russia’s reset of its operational goals in Ukraine will be impossible to achieve without a formal declaration of war and full mobilization.
  6. The Kremlin is likely hoping to wear down western support by extending the war and capitalize on a looming leadership change in the United Kingdom and politically driven unrest in the United States, which closely resembles the start of “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland.
  7. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 5, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,049 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory after the Russian Federation Armed Forces secured the region 131 days after the widescale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin told Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shogui that the units in Luhansk “should rescue [and] increase their combat capabilities.”

It took 100 days for Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed militias to secure the last 7% of the Luhansk Oblast. The Russian military will likely start to work to establish administrative control of Severodoentsk and Lysychansk. The cities of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna had a combined pre-war population of 293,500. It is estimated that 18,500 civilians remain, with the rest fleeing the area – some into Russia and others into Ukraine. Most of those who stayed behind supported the Russian invasion or were poor, disabled, or didn’t want to leave their homes.

Northeast Donetsk – In the Siversk region, Russian forces have advanced over the T-1302 Highway and taken partial control of Spirne.

Widescale artillery barrages occurred through the region, including Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and Verkhonkamyanska. Other settlements shelled include Ivano-Daryivka and Berestove.

NASA FIRMS data suggest that the town of Raihorodok has been shelled.

In the Bakhmut-Soledar region, the settlements of Pokrovske and Soledar were shelled.

Fighting continued In the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhlehar Power Plant and Russian forces shelling Kodema. Russian forces are attempting to take control of Novoluhanske, southeast of the power plant and on the reservoir’s western shore.

Based on this intelligence, we maintain that Dolomitne is contested, and we are coding Novoluhanske as contested.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – There were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. There were reports of fighting near Rivnopil, but we could not verify the veracity of the reports.

We consider Bilohirya, Luhivske, Novopokrovka, Bahate, and Ukraniske, Rivnopil, Pyatkhatky, and Stepove [Zaporizhia] as contested.

Kherson – Russian forces continue to take a defensive posture and are attempting to slow the broad advance of Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces are attempting to interdict Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines) and firing artillery, Grad, and Smerch rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

Russian forces shelled Myrne northwest of Kherson, which would indicate the settlement is contested. There are reports that Pravdyne was liberated, and Myrne and Parysheve are contested. We cannot verify the veracity of these reports. However, the report of Myrne being shelled supports the settlement is contested.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Shyroka Balka, Sofiivka, and Krytyi Yar.

In the northern region of Kherson, Topolyne, Ivanivka, Knyazivka, Potomkyne, Dobryanka, Trudolyubivka, and Osokorivka were shelled by Russian forces.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Sukhyi Stavok, Lozove, Davydiv Brid, Velkya Oleksandrivka, and Novopetrivka.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces are in Lozove. We cannot confirm the veracity of these reports. There was a drone video that showed Russian troops being killed by small arms fire. The distance from the Inhulets River was over 700 meters. There may be Ukrainian Special Operation Forces on the east side of the river, but we don’t believe this indicates there is a more significant force in the immediate area.

Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters fired on Zarichne and Olhyne. On July 3, there was evidence of significant fighting in Olhyne, and we have coded the settlement as contested based on this intelligence update. If Ukrainian forces liberate Olhyne, it will represent the full collapse of the Vysokopillya salient.

Mykolaiv – The settlements of Lupareve, Shevchenkove, Chervona Dolyna, Kobzartsi, Partyzanske, and Bereznehuvate were shelled. There were no reports of cruise missile attacks.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces did reconnaissance in force toward Kozacha Lopan from Sosnivka, likely to harass Russian positions. There were no other offensive operations in the area. There was scattered artillery fire along the rest of the line of conflict.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Mazanivka. In Dolyna, they were unsuccessful, and in Mazanivka, they moved the line of conflict to the settlement’s northern border. Russian forces attempted to advance on Virnopillya and suffered heavy losses, including eight armored vehicles.

Sumy – Russian forces continue firing at settlements across the international border in the Sumy oblast. A school was destroyed in Esman, and public utility infrastructure was destroyed in Nova Sloboda. Bilopillia was hit with at least 25 mortar shells and five missiles, injuring two people.

Chernihiv – Russian troops fired across the international border at the settlements of Mkhy and Zalizniy Mist. There were no reports of injuries or significant damage.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Ukrainian flag was dropped on Snake Island, symbolically taking control of the strategically important dot in the Black Sea.

Daily Assessment

  1. President Putin’s declaration of “rest” is not a charitable order from a benevolent leader but a tacit admission that Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed separatists of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics have exhausted their combat strength and need to reconstitute.
  2. Russian forces continue to be pressured in the Kherson oblast and struggle to hold the line of conflict.
  3. Germany announced they are providing Ukraine with four additional M270 HIMARS systems and upgraded the software to work with the Ukrainian fire control systems.
  4. Ukrainian forces are using NATO-provided guided munitions fired from HIMARS to destroy multiple military targets a day.
  5. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 3, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,047 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from Lysychansk after the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and Pryvillia were captured. With the Lysychansk-Bakhmut T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) severed and the Sivesk-Lysychansk GLOC under pressure, The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided the risk of encirclement had become too great. Additionally, Russian forces unleashed the largest artillery barrage since the collapse of the Zolote-Hirske salient. Luhansk Regional Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai confirmed the withdrawal.

Russian state media showed Russian and Chechen forces in the center of Lysychansk and the southern regions on the plateau. It is estimated that up to 10,000 civilians remain in the city once home to 95,000.

There weren’t indications of large numbers of Ukrainian troops being captured or the abandonment of significant quantities of heavy weapons.

Ukrainian forces fell back to preprepared defensive positions in Siversk. Due to the ongoing Ukrainian withdrawal, the renewed line of conflict is very difficult to define.

Russian forces attempted a reconnaissance in force advance into Berestove but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, Siversk, Serberianka, Hryhorivka, Bilhorivka [Donetsk], and Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – Southeast of Bakhmut, Russian forces shelled the electrical service transformer farm at Vesela Dolyna. Sentinel-2 L2A imagery showed a massive fire at the center of the facility.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – Russia-backed separatists of the Donetsk People’s Republic 1st Army attempted an advance on Novomykhalivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot in the city of Yasynuvata near Donetsk.

In the Russia-controlled port city of Berdyansk, salvage engineers raised the Large Landing Ship (LLS), Saratov, from the bottom of the harbor. The Saratov was sunk on March 24 during a Ukrainian cruise missile attack, damaging two additional LLS and severely damaging a civilian cargo ship.

Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian airbase in the occupied town of Melitopol with 12 rockets fired from NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), striking defensives and two logistic warehouses. Additionally, a freight train traveling between Crimea and Melitopol was attacked by insurgents. Insurgents also derailed a Russian armored train.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces shelled the Russian-controlled airport at Chornobaivka, destroying an ammunition depot. The settlement of Pervomaiske suffered intense shelling by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement of Ivanivka and Zarichne [Kherson] and are attacking Russian positions in Arkhanhelske on the east bank of the Inhulets River. Russian forces have suffered significant losses.

To replace equipment losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense is transferring 40 to 67 tanks from Zaporizhia to Kherson.

Mykolaiv – Up to 12 Russian Onyx cruise missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv. The missiles targeted the port and grain storage.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile struck the city of Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, destroying a factory.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with Iskander-M Short Range Ballistic Missiles SRBM), with several strikes in the city and the suburbs of Cherkaska Lozova and Derhachi.

Izyum – Slovyansk – Russian forces made another ad hoc advance on Bohorodychne, which was unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are using HIMARS to interdict Russian GLOC into and south of Izyum, significantly impacting the ability to resupply and support Russian forces on the line of conflict. Ukrainian forces reestablished the wet crossing southeast of Chepil.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Russian Su-30 aircraft fired a Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missile into the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, striking another hotel.

The Ukrainian air force bombed Snake Island’s remaining Russian military assets, destroying a Tornado Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and three other support vehicles on the pier.

Russian Federation – Missile debris from a failed Iskander-M launch or possibly from a Russian antiaircraft missile fell onto the city of Belgorod, Russia. Local authorities reported dozens of homes were damaged, and three civilians were killed. The Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of firing a Tochka-U missile armed with cluster munitions on Kursk, but later retracted the accusation and claimed it shot down three Ukrainian missiles.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense has put intense pressure on its commanders in Ukraine to complete the capture of the Luhansk oblast, and it is unlikely they will have an operational pause.
  2. Russia will continue to focus on securing the Luhansk Oblast at all costs.
  3. NATO-provided HIMARS is already having a significant impact on combat operations for Ukraine.
  4. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  5. Russian forces’ defensive capabilities in Kherson are increasingly degraded as they deploy 360-degree perimeter defenses in the settlements they still control.
  6. Supply interdiction west and northwest of Izyum is impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities toward Slovyansk.

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