The Chinese government has ordered domestic airlines to stop accepting deliveries of Boeing airliners in retaliation for U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to a report in Bloomberg.
China also directed carriers to stop buying airline parts and other related components from all U.S. companies.
Boeing (BA) dropped 2.36% on the news, closing down -3.76 at 155.52. At the time of publication, Boeing had not responded to our request for comment. Airbus SE climbed 1.14% (+0.45), closing at 39.92.
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the situation on his personal social media network, Truth Social, saying, “Interestingly, they [China] just reneged on the big Boeing deal, saying that they will ‘not take possession’ of fully committed to aircraft.”
On April 8, Boeing reported that 130 commercial aircraft, including 105 737s, were delivered in the first quarter of 2025. Boeing does not provide a breakdown of deliveries by customer or country. Spirit AeroSystems builds the 737 fuselages in Wichita, Kansas, and they are shipped by train to Renton, Washington, for final assembly. Boeing employees approximately 67,800 people in Washington state between its Commercial Airplane and Defense, Space, and Security Programs.
During the first Trump administration in 2018, the U.S. aircraft manufacturer opened the Boeing Completion Center in Zhoushan, China, where aircraft receive their interiors and airline livery before delivery to Southeast Asian customers, including China. Southeast Asia is Boeing’s second-largest market, behind North America.
China and Russia Attempts to Build Competing Aircraft
China started domestic development of the COMAC C919 in 2008, a passenger plane similar to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737-MAX. Flight testing started in 2017, and Eastern China Airlines took delivery of the first aircraft in 2023. The first commercial flight outside of China was in June 2024.
The largest customer is Tibet Airlines, which ordered 40 aircraft with high-altitude modifications. Russian domestic airlines were forced to cancel their orders for the C919 in 2022 and 2023 due to U.S. sanctions.
In 2015, China started developing the C929, a widebody jet to compete against the Airbus A330neo and the Boeing 787. Three years later, a memorandum was signed with Russia to jointly develop the plane, creating the China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Corporation Limited company (CRCAIC). The aircraft was dubbed the CR929 (China-Russia).
The COVID-19 pandemic and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine War stalled development, and in 2023, Russia quietly withdrew from the CRCAIC for economic reasons. The airplane was renamed the C929, with the first prototype expected in 2027.
Russia announced its intent to produce a 737 and A-320neo competitor in 2005, designated the Yakovlev MC-21. The first deliveries were supposed to be in 2017, but numerous delays have plagued development, including the COVID-19 pandemic and its reliance on U.S. jet engines. Eight prototypes with a lower-efficiency Russian engine have been built. Commercial deliveries with a Russian-designed engine that would match 2005 specifications are delayed to 2027.
Two Russian Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) armed with cluster munitions struck the Ukrainian city of Sumy, as the faithful traditionally walked to Palm Sunday church services, killing at least 34 and wounding 117. At the time of publication, search and rescue operations were still ongoing.
Two children are among the dead, including a newborn, and 15 more children were wounded. At least 68 people are in hospital, with eight in critical condition. It is the single worst attack on Ukrainian civilians since 5 October 2023, when a Russian missile struck people gathered for a funeral in Hroza, killing 56.
Videos of the aftermath from the first missile show Russia used a double-tap attack to maximize casualties. The second missile exploded in the air, 200 meters from the first strike, to maximize the spread of the submunitions.
Posting on Twitter (also known as X), Zelenskyy said, “Russian missiles hit an ordinary city street, ordinary life – residential buildings, educational institutions, cars on the street… [sic] And that’s on the day when people go to church – Palm Sunday, the feast of the Lord’s Entry into Jerusalem.”
The Ukrianian leader added, “Russia wants exactly this kind of terror and is dragging this war out,” while “The United States, Europe, everyone in the world…wants this war and these killings to end.”
The heart of Sumy, including the Congress Center (conference building), a courthouse, a post office, the Sumy Regional Philharmonic Orchestra, the Educational and Scientific Institute of Business, Economics and Management, and the Sports Hall campuses of Sumy State University, was targeted.
Among the dead are Olena Kohut, a college professor and solo organist with the Sumy Regional Philharmonic, and Diana Popova, the Director General of the Museum of History of the City of Kyiv.
Worshippers at a Baptist Church near the attack site had to duck for cover after the shockwave from the first missile broke windows, showering some congregants with broken glass.
Kirill Illiashenko, 13, is being hailed as a hero for helping rescuing passengers trapped in a burning bus he was riding in. The blast blocked the doors, and despite severe shrapnel wounds, Illiashenko kicked out a window, exited the bus, and was able to open the exit.
The head of the Main Defense Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, identified the Russian military units involved in the Palm Sunday Massacre. Missiles were launched from Liski in the Voronezh region by the 112th Missile Brigade, and Lezhenki in the Kursk region by the 448th Missile Brigade.
The attack happened nine days after the Kryvyi Rih missile strike on a playground killed 19, including nine children, and wounded 75. Russia and Ukraine are technically in a partial ceasefire brokered by the United States that started on 18 March, which Moscow has repeatedly violated.
Mayor of Konotop Calls for Sumy Governor’s Firing
Artem Semenikhin, the mayor of the Sumy region settlement of Konotop, accused Sumy Oblast Governor Volodymyr Artiukh of planning a 13 April awards ceremony for the Ukrainian 117th Brigade in Sumy.
“They want PR for the military,” Semenikhin wrote on Facebook, “They wanted to take pictures at the awards ceremony and thank…And as a result, they poured blood on Sumy, helping the Muscovites commit genocide against Ukrainians.”
During a 14-minute livestream, he claimed an internal criminal investigation was opened. “[A] criminal case has been opened not only for the terrorist genocidal attack by the butchers [Russians – Ed.] against Ukrainians, but also…to find out who thought of holding events with a gathering of military personnel in the city center.”
Ukrainska Pravda reported that “several sources familiar with the situation” confirmed that an award ceremony was scheduled on Sunday morning. The Ministry of Internal Affairs has reportedly contacted the command of the 117th Brigade and Atriukh.
Semenikhin believes that civilians were the primary target, with Moscow using the award ceremony as a pretext to justify the attack.
Attack Causes Shift in Washington’s Tone
Posting on Twitter, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio directly blamed Russia for the attack, signaling a change in position by the Trump administration. “The United States extends our deepest condolences to the victims of today’s horrifying Russian missile attack on Sumy,” Rubio said, “This is a tragic reminder of why President Trump and his Administration are putting so much time and effort into trying to end this war and achieve durable peace.”
Last week, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink came under fire for not mentioning Russia after the Kryvyi Rih playground attack. In another sign of a shift in tone from Washington, Brink’s response to today’s attack also blamed Russia.
“Today, Palm Sunday, Russia launched ballistic missiles on Sumy…Reports indicate, as in Kryvyi Rih, cluster munitions were used, increasing the devastation and harm to civilians. Our prayers are with the people of Sumy.”
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) wrote that without “a dramatic change soon,” he would move forward with his bill that would impose massive sanctions and tariffs against Russia. “It is obvious to me that the only hope of ending this war is to continue to cripple Russia’s economy and punish those who prop up Putin,” said Graham. Currently, the bill has 55 co-sponsors, giving it guaranteed approval in the upper house of Congress.
Posting on his personal Twitter account, U.S. special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg wrote, “Today’s Palm Sunday attack by Russian forces on civilian targets in Sumy crosses any line of decency. There are scores of civilians dead and wounded. As a former military leader, I understand targeting, and this is wrong. It is why President Trump is working hard to end this war.”
Last night, while flying on Air Force One, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are going fine, but he’s running out of patience. “I think Ukraine-Russia might be going OK,” said Trump, “And you’re going to be finding out pretty soon…There’s a point at which you have to either put up or shut up. We’ll see what happens. But I think it’s going fine.”
The attack on Sumy came two days after U.S. special envoy to the Middle East and Russia, Steve Witkoff, met with autocrat Vladimir Putin in Moscow for 4.5 hours. Witkoff’s attempts to broker a Phase 2 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas also failed, with the billionaire turned diplomat admitting that Hamas may have “deceived” him.
World Reacts with Horror
World leaders and diplomats condemned today’s attack, almost universally calling for more pressure to be put on Russia.
Kaja Kallas, the chief diplomat of the European Union, said the attack was a “horrific example of Russia intensifying attacks while Ukraine has accepted an unconditional ceasefire.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “This latest escalation is a grim reminder: Russia was and remains the aggressor, in blatant violation of international law. Strong measures are urgently needed to enforce a ceasefire. Europe will continue to reach out to partners and maintain strong pressure on Russia until the bloodshed ends and a just and lasting peace is achieved, on Ukraine’s terms and conditions.”
European Council President and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: “I strongly condemn this unacceptable violence, which contradicts any real commitment to peace, promoted by President Trump and supported wholeheartedly by Italy, together with Europe and other international partners.”
NATO Press Office: “Horrific scenes from the center of Sumy where Russian ballistic missiles killed dozens and severely injured many more ordinary civilians. Our thoughts are with the Ukrainian people on what is a sacred day for so many.”
French President Emmanuel Macron: “Everyone knows: This war was initiated by Russia alone. And today, it is clear that Russia alone chooses to continue it — with blatant disregard for human lives, international law, and the diplomatic efforts of President Trump.”
German Caretaker Chancellor Olaf Scholz: “Such Russian attacks reveal the truth about Russia’s alleged readiness for peace. Instead of a readiness for peace, we see that Russia is mercilessly continuing its war of aggression against Ukraine. This war must end, and Russia must finally agree to a comprehensive ceasefire.”
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer: “I’m appalled at Russia’s horrific attacks on civilians in Sumy, and my thoughts are with the victims and their loved ones at this tragic time. President Zelenskyy has shown his commitment to peace. Putin must now agree to a full and immediate ceasefire without conditions.”
Moldovan President Maia Sandu: “Palm Sunday is a day of peace. This morning, as people gathered to pray, Russia bombed Sumy—killing and injuring civilians. Moldova mourns with Ukraine and urges more air defence to save lives. The aggressor must be held accountable. There is no justification for such evil.”
Finnish President Alexander Stubb: “Russia continues its barbaric war of aggression. Today, again, slaughtering innocent civilians in Sumy. Russia shows that it has no respect for international law or humanitarian law. We must end this war. An unconditional ceasefire must begin at once. To make it commit seriously to negotiations, sanctions against Russia need to be further strengthened.”
Foreign Ministry of Slovenia: “Russia continues this war with blatant disregard for international law.”
Slovak President Peter Pellegrini: “I condemn today’s brutal attack on Ukrainian city of Sumy…While talks of peace continue, innocent lives are still being lost. The international community must exert all diplomatic efforts and pressure to end this slaughter, urging Russia to seek peace at the negotiating table, not through missiles that kill innocent people.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk: “The Russian version of a ceasefire. Bloody Palm Sunday, Sumy.”
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal: “Let’s be clear. Russia’s goal is erasing Ukraine. Yet another brutal attack against innocent civilians proves it. Our aid to Ukraine cannot be delayed at the most crucial moment. No pressure on Russia means no peace.”
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda: “Another vile Russian war crime – this time in the heart of Sumy. This is a slap in the face to everyone who seeks and desires peace. The civilized world must use force to stop these barbarians who are killing civilians and children.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: “Today, Russia chose once again to prolong its unjustified war of aggression on Ukraine by attacking innocent civilians in Sumy. Our thoughts are with the families of those killed and wounded in this brutal attack. Ukraine has shown its commitment to peace — and Russia must now agree to an immediate ceasefire.
The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine, Matthias Schmale, condemned the attack “in the strongest possible terms.”
“International humanitarian law strictly prohibits attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure,” said Schmale, “Those rules exist to protect human life and dignity — and they must be respected at all times.”
International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and the Geneva Conventions do permit strikes on military targets in civilian areas, but require all possible measures to be taken to minimize civilian casualties, including the type of weapons used. Attack planners must also be able to prove they conducted a proper risk assessment before ordering a strike in a civilian area. However, IHL provides no exceptions for the use of cluster munitions in a civilian area, which is considered a war crime.
[WBHG NEWS] – Twitter, also known as X, experienced a global outage for several hours today. The outage affected the Android and iOS apps and also caused numerous problems with the web client.
Speaking on Fox News, Elon Musk told Larry Kudlow, “We’re not sure what happened…there was a massive cyber attack to try and bring down the X system – ah – with ah – IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area.”
Most Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks involve hackers activating malware unknowingly installed on user computers and devices over a wide area. IP addresses are not a “smoking gun” for the origin of a cyber attack, and IP addresses are easily spoofed. The services likely used to carry out the attack target the “Internet of Things” (IoT) to turn them into zombies. IoT can include anything connected to the web that isn’t a PC, tablet, or smartphone, such as routers, security cameras, thermostats, streaming media boxes, and even home appliances. Given Musk’s experience with software and cyber security, he should know this.
When Musk spoke to Kudlow, the hacker group Dark Storm Team had already claimed responsibility for the attack on its Telegram channel.
Dark Storm was founded in 2023 and primarily targets Israel and NATO Alliance countries, according to the Cyber Intelligence Bureau of Epidemiology Lab. Since its formation, the group has also targeted Egypt, India, Ukraine, Brazil, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates.
The pro-Palestinian cybercriminals are in a coalition with approximately five other hacker groups, including the Russia-based and Kremlin-backed Killnet and the Russia-based Bluenet Russia. They are self-financed and offer hacking services for hire. Its primary goal is to exploit political and religious differences in support of a Palestinian state and the Palestinian people.
Other members of the Dark Storm Team coalition include Anonymous Sudan, Ghosts of Palestine, and SN_BLACKMETA, which is based in Sudan. To conduct DDoS attacks, Darm Storm has used ZeusAPI, which was sold to Aleksandr Andreevich Panin in 2012. Panin, a Russian citizen and co-founder of SpyEye, was arrested and convicted of cybercrimes in 2016. Despite his arrest, ZeusAPI is still updated and used today.
Channel DDoS V2 and Krypton Networks are also DDoS “as a service” tools that anyone can buy. The home base for Krypton Networks (not to be confused with the gaming company based in the U.K. that uses the same name) is unknown, but they have dedicated Russian and Chinese-language Telegram pages. It is unclear where Channel DDoS V2 is based. According to cyber security experts, possibilities include Argentina, Germany, the Netherlands, and Indonesia.
According to Info Security Magazine, ZeusAPI, Channel DDoS V2, and Krypton Networks services were used for the majority of cyberattacks against the United States in the first half of 2024.
Is There Another Agenda
The attack and the thinly veiled implication that Ukraine was behind it come less than 24 hours before U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are supposed to meet in Saudi Arabia. The meeting is meant to stabilize relations between Ukraine and its potential former ally, restore the minerals deal, and convince Washington to restart intelligence sharing and military aid.
Musk’s latest accusation follows a weekend of events meant to portray Ukraine and its allies in a negative light.
On Saturday, Vice President JD Vance exaggerated his interaction with pro-Ukrainian protesters in Cincinnati, Ohio, accusing them of chasing him and his 3-year-old daughter. Video of the impromptu discussion appears to show Vance approached the group, and his Secret Service detail did not see them as a threat. Most of the talking was between an older woman and the Vice President. There was no evidence that he was chased.
Responding to a different video recorded near Vance’s home that circulated on Saturday, William Martin, the Press Secretary of Vance, wrote, “Anyone that’s ever been here knows Jimmy [Rushton] is full of shit because the video of these Slava Ukraini scumbags harassing the Vice President’s daughter takes place on a completely different street nearby.”
Early on Sunday morning, after Musk, President Donald Trump, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had dinner at Mar-a-Lago, Musk appeared to threaten to turn off Starlink service to Ukraine. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski responded on Twitter, writing, “Starlinks for Ukraine are paid by the Polish Digitization Ministry at the cost of about $50 million per year. The ethics of threatening the victim of aggression apart, if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider we will be forced to look for suppliers.”
Musk quickly responded, writing on Twitter, “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink.”
Secretary Rubio then defended Musk. “Just making things up. No one has made any threats about cutting Ukraine off from Starlink. And say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russia would be on the border of Poland right now.”
As a point of order, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad already shares a border with Poland.
Appearing to go into damage control mode on Sunday evening, Musk then wrote, “To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals.”
Early on Monday morning, the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, didn’t consider the spat over. “True leadership means respect for partners and allies, Tusk said, “Even for the smaller and weaker ones. Never arrogance. Dear friends, think about it.”
On Monday morning, Musk called Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) a “traitor” for traveling to Ukraine to meet with government officials. Kelly is a decorated war veteran and naval aviator with over 5,000 flight hours and hundreds of carrier landings. He conducted 39 combat sorties during Operation Desert Storm.
Kelly was also a NASA astronaut. He was on STS-108, the pilot for STS-121, and the commander for STS-124 and STS-134.
A member of the Democratic party, he was elected to the Senate in 2020.
Kelly responded to Musk on Twitter. “Traitor?” he wrote, “Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.”
Jonathan Chait, a write with The Atlantic, called Musk’s accusation “rather odd,” adding, “unless one considered Ukraine an enemy of the United States. Where Musk is going, Trump is likely to follow.”
[WBHG News] – Fifteen days after a Russian drone struck the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, fires continue to burn in the New Safe Confinement (NSC) structure.
“Ukrainian firefighters are still trying to extinguish smoldering fires within the large structure built over the reactor destroyed in the 1986 Chornobyl nuclear accident,” Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.
On 14 February, a Russian drone struck the NSC, which encases the remains of Reactor 4. The reactor exploded in April 1986 due to design flaws and operator negligence, causing the worst nuclear accident in world history. The drone created a six-meter-wide hole and ignited fires on the roof and within the confinement facility. The NSC, completed in 2016, was built to prevent the future release of radioactive material into the atmosphere and further protect the original shelter built over Reactor 4, which was decaying.
Radiation monitoring carried out by Ukraine and independent measurements done by the IAEA show radiational levels remain at normal levels inside and outside of Chornobyl.
Efforts by more than 400 firefighters, engineers, and technicians to put out the fire and start repairs are hampered by the normal background radiation left from the 1986 accident and repeated Russian attacks near Chornobyl. Onsite IAEA inspectors reported “multiple air raid alarms during the past week, at times forcing the suspension of the activities to extinguish the fires.”
The most serious incident included a Russian drone flying directly over a radioactive spent fuel storage facility at the Chornobyl site, according to the IAEA.
“The firefighters and other responders are working very hard in difficult circumstances to manage the impact and consequences of the drone strike. It was clearly a serious incident in terms of nuclear safety, even though it could have been much worse. As I have stated repeatedly during this devastating war, attacking a nuclear facility must never happen,” Director General Grossi said.
IAEA Confirms Drone was a Shahed-136
Photo of debris from the Shahed-136 drone that struck the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant found inside the NSC building by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on 14 February 2025.
Experts with the IAEA, who have been given unrestricted access to the ongoing investigation, reviewed the collected drone debris in Kyiv on Thursday. “The team observed drone parts that they assessed are consistent with a Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicle,” an IAEA spokesperson said.
However, the nuclear watchdog refused to provide “any further assessment” on who launched the Russian-built drone at Chornobyl. While the IAEA has never assessed blame for any attacks on Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, this was the first time the organization positively identified a weapon used in the attack.
Article 56 of International Humanitarian Law forbids all attacks on “nuclear electrical generating stations” without exception.
Ukrainian officials accused Russia of the attack, and the strike occurred during a larger drone attack in the region. Our team reviewed photos of the drone debris and concluded they were consistent with a Shahed-136.
The Kremlin and the Trump White House, along with their proxies, have repeatedly claimed that a key driver of the Russia-Ukraine War was Ukraine’s desire to join the NATO Alliance.
Tucked away among the over 10 million documents released by Julian Assange’s Wikileaks is a confidential cable dated 25 November 2009 between Kyiv-based U.S. State Department Political Counselor Colin Cleary and Washington, D.C. The cable was sent to the Commonwealth of Independent States, NATO—European Union Cooperative, and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.
There are 13 paragraphs, including one about NATO Alliance membership, one about joining the European Union, and one about continuing military support for Georgia, which came under partial Russian occupation in August 2008.
Cleary’s cable is an outline of Viktor Yanukovych’s potential foreign policy if he won the 2010 presidential election in Ukraine and what Kyiv’s position would be on a number of geopolitical issues. Cleary met with Anatoliy Orel, a Senior Advisor to Yanukovych, in Kyiv, and on 10 February 2010, Yanukovych became Ukraine’s president.
The memo speaks for itself. Orel told Cleary that a Yanukovych administration would adopt a new foreign policy.
A reset in relations with Russia, generally deferring to Russia’s red lines
Extending the lease at the Port of Sevastopol in Crimea to the Russian Black Sea Fleet
Non-bloc status and an end to Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations
Relations with the European Union on “equal terms” but without membership
Cooling of relations between Ukraine and Georgia
A “pragmatic” relationship with the U.S.
On Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Relations
According to the confidential cable, Orel “condemned” the policies of then-president Viktor Yushchenko, who took a “black-and-white” approach to foreign policy: Russia, bad, and the West, good. He went on to stress that “Ukraine has to take the views of Russia very seriously. Hostile relations with Russia are not in Ukraine’s interest.”
During Yushchenko’s administration, then-Ukrainian Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk drew up a list of the “thorniest” issues between Moscow and Kyiv. The most critical issues were “border demarcation [with Russia – Ed.] and the Black Sea Fleet.” No progress was made, and Orel said as the foreign policy head, he would work on “getting the best deal he can for Ukraine. Further, he went on to say that Russia did not want to resolve border issues and was “concerned about the Kerch Strait/Azov Sea being open to NATO ships and thus wants to keep the border unresolved.”
On Joining NATO and Other Alliances
Cleary wrote that Orel “asserted” that “NATO membership ‘makes no sense’ for Ukraine,” adding that “The public is overwhelmingly against it.”
He cited The U.S. War on Terror and Operation Enduring Freedom, which Orel rightly predicted would “end in Vietnam-like failure for the Alliance.” Yanukovych’s team was also concerned that pursuing NATO membership would “needlessly complicate relations with Russia.”
At the time of the meeting with Cleary, Ukrainian troops were already deployed in Afghanistan as part of the International Security Assistance Force. The multinational military mission was active between 2001 and 2014. Ukrainian forces then transitioned to a non-combat role in Operation Resolute Support, which was responsible for training the National Army of Afghanistan. In June 2021, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy withdrew the last 21 Ukrainian soldiers from Afghanistan, ending a 14-year deployment.
Publicly, Yanukovych said he supported cooperation with the NATO Alliance but would not seek membership. Orel and MP Leonid Kozhara, who both worked during the Leonid Kuchma presidency from 1994 to 2005, said that Kuchma “had improved cooperation with NATO in far more practical ways that [sic] Yushchenko ever had.”
Yanukovych was true to his word, maintaining the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre at the Yavoriv Military Base, which opened in 2007 but never advanced NATO membership. The training facility was created under the Ukraine-NATO Partnership for Peace program, which Ukraine joined in February 1994.
In November 2015, Fearless Guardian II, a “combined training between Soldiers from the Joint Multinational Training Group (JMTG-U) – Ukraine, Ukrainian Land Forces, and Ukrainian Special Operations Forces,” started. The California National Guard, 173rd Airborne Brigade, 10th Special Forces Group, and training support personnel from U.S. Army Europe and the Joint Multinational Training Command led the exercise. In total, five battalions were trained.
Orel also told Cleary that under Yanukovych, Kyiv “should” walk away from a Polish-led initiative to join the Eastern Partnership. Warsaw wanted to create a regional agreement with Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Ukraine to “create a cordon around Russia” that Yushchenko believed was “irritating to Russia.” In July 2009, the two nations established a limited agreement to ease travel between the Polish-Ukrainian border for residents who lived within 30 kilometers of the boundary.
When it came to Georgia, both Orel and Kozhara told Cleary that Ukraine would “cool relations.” At the time, Russia occupied approximately 20% of Georgia after its unprovoked invasion in August 2008. When Russia first occupied the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions, Yanukovych publicly supported the “recognition of the “independence” of the two republics.
During the November 2009 meeting, Orel and Kozhara assured Cleary that this would not happen because the “recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia would send the wrong signal” and it would be “going too far to appease Russia.”
In fact, after Yanukovych became president in 2010, he did not stop arms sales to Georgia and never recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
European Union Membership
Two days before the meeting between Cleary and Orel, region economic chief Mykola Azarov told U.S. embassy staff that “economic reform in Ukraine should come from within and need not be driven by harmonization with the [European Union] (E.U.).” Orel believed that the E.U. would never allow Ukraine to become a full member because the nation’s agricultural and industrial resources would be the largest in the bloc, and it would “undercut prices in Europe.”
Azarov wanted to set a course that would establish bilateral trade with the E.U. and believed that having to comply with a long list of reforms with no assurance of membership was “demeaning.”
At the time of the meeting with Cleary, the E.U. and Ukraine were operating under a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement and had already started broader negotiations to forge an Association Agreement (AA). The AA was approved in March 2012, putting Ukraine on a path to E.U. accession. Later that same year, E.U. Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fule stated that the AA and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreements could be signed in November 2013 if Ukraine complied with additional reforms.
The Fallout
The cable published by Wikileaks aligns with almost all of the events from 2010 to 2014 and reveals that, under Yanukovych, Ukraine had no plans to seek NATO Alliance membership.
It was in 2012 when Russia started its active hybrid war against Ukraine, driving a political and social wedge between the industrial east and the cosmopolitan west. The State Department cable and history support that Moscow’s real issue was Kyiv’s desire to join the E.U. What remains unclear is what changed during the opening months of the Yanukovych administration, which led Kyiv to embrace a path towards a deeper economic relationship.
Russia expanded its coercion in August 2013, starting a trade war by restricting imports and dramatically increasing soft power influence within Ukraine. Three months later, Lithuanian diplomats said Yanukovych changed his mind on E.U. accession because of blackmail over imports and exports, natural gas, and jobs. On 21 November, Yanukovych suspended further efforts to join the E.U. and canceled the signing ceremony for the DCFTA, which was scheduled for the 28th in Vilnius.
Widespread protests erupted across Ukraine, with Yanukovych’s government getting increasingly violent, deploying the Berkut, a cross between riot police and a goon squad. In 2023, around the time of the failed Prigozhin Insurrection in Rostov-on-Don, multiple Russian milbloggers revealed that Russian soldiers were involved in cracking down on the protests, working in cooperation with the Berkut and Yanukovych’s government.
Kyiv passed oppressive anti-protest laws on 16 January 2014. Increasingly violent clashes continued, including the death of several protesters later in the week. Demonstrators occupied multiple government buildings across Ukraine. In an attempt to defuse the situation, the Rada repealed most of the anti-protest laws. Azarov, who was now the prime minister, resigned on 28 January.
By then, Moscow was controlling the anti-Maidan with support from Berkut, its own military operatives, and mercenary supporters. Yanukovych was also under the control of the Kremlin, which intended for him to be a puppet who would control Ukraine as a rump state. On 20 February, almost 100 protesters were killed in Kyiv after the Berkut and snipers opened fire. Thirteen police officers also died, and hundreds were wounded.
On the same day, Russian soldiers invaded the Crimean Peninsula, and a contingent of Russians, including FSB Colonel Igor “Strelkov” Girkin, traveled to Donetsk in the Donbas to meet with pro-Russian elements within the region. Girkin would go on to be the first Minister of Defense of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and lead the 1st Army Corps.
Prior to his arrest by Russia in the summer of 2023 for violating Moscow’s “don’t say war” laws, Girkin confessed that he was the instigator of the warfare in the Donbas. A claim backed up by the now-deceased leader of the former Private Military Company Wagner Group, Yevgen Prigozhin. Russian milblogger Seymon Pegov also revealed in September 2022 that he was fighting under the leadership of Girkin in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk and condemned Girkin for “abandoning him” during the collapse of the Russian offensive.
On 21 February 2014, Yanukovych signed an agreement forming an interim government and reinstating the 2004 Constitution. Hours later, the Berkut and police withdrew, and protesters took control. The next day, Yanukovych tried to flee to Russia through Kharkiv but was stopped by border guards. Two days later, he fled to Moscow on a Russian military flight out of occupied Crimea.
Ukraine did not seek NATO membership until April 2022, and the atrocities committed by Russian forces in the Kyiv suburbs of Bucha and Irpin were revealed to the world. At the end of the Biden administration in 2024, it was revealed that Washington never intended to permit Ukraine to join the NATO Alliance, along with Germany and Hungary. The White House was worried that even the offer of an invitation to NATO would provoke Russia into potentially attacking the NATO Alliance or using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Wikileaks exposes that almost 14 years of attempts to appease Moscow by Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels were all in vain. Moscow had already destabilized Belarus and Georgia, with the latter currently falling deeper under the control of the Georgia Dream regime.
Signals from Russian and U.S. officials after the first round of meetings to discuss a “peace deal” in the Russia-Ukraine War indicate that the Trump administration is setting conditions to lift some or all sanctions and end all aid to Kyiv.
Our team agrees with the assessment by four “Western intelligence officials and two “U.S. Congressional officials” that Russia is negotiating in bad faith and has no interest in ending its war of aggression against Ukraine.
Responding to an inquiry by U.S. news agency NBC News, Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said, “President Trump’s leadership has created the first opening for talks in years, and he did this after only four weeks in office. The Trump Administration will continue to pursue a deal that advances American interests and brings this conflict to a permanent resolution.”
Fact Check – The Truth Matters
That statement is, at best, a half-truth. In March 2022, there was the Istanbul Communique. In May 2022, then-Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu (who has since been removed from his position), calling for a ceasefire.
In December 2022, then-Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for a February 2023 peace summit mediated by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, with the requirement that Russia answer to the International Criminal Court. The Kremlin rejected the offer, once again demanding sovereignty over the illegally annexed Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
In June 2023, a multinational peace delegation from Africa visited Kyiv and Moscow, meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and autocrat Vladimir Putin. During the 17 June visit to Moscow, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa told Putin the war must end. Moscow rejected the African delegation’s peace plan.
In November 2023, President Zelenskyy rejected negotiating with Russia, declaring Moscow was not interested in good-faith discussions. A month later, autocrat Putin rejected talks, saying, “There will only be peace in Ukraine when we achieve our aims…denazification, demilitarization, and its neutral status.”
Over 100 nations, territories, and organizations attended the Ukraine Peace Summit in June 2024. While Russia was not invited, Moscow declared that even if they were, they would not participate.
Russia Isn’t Negotiating in Good Faith
Moments after the first meeting ended, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly demonstrated that Moscow has no interest in good-faith negotiations. Speaking with reporters, he said, “The U.S. proposed a moratorium on attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during negotiations. We explained that it has never endangered civilian energy supply systems.”
On the same day Lavrov made the claim, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported, “Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged military airfield and energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine [emphasis – Ed.], storage and launch sites for unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and equipment in 144 areas.”
Despite the obvious deception, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that America needs to “take advantage of the incredible opportunity to partner with the Russians geopolitically, on issues of common interest and economically.” Rubio went further, declaring the West would “have to cancel sanctions” if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could be established.
After both parties held their respective press conferences, President Donald Trump went on a tirade on his Truth Social social media network and a press conference at Mar-a-Lago. The president falsely claimed that Ukraine has received $350 billion in aid from the U.S. compared to $100 billion from Europe, suggesting Zelenskyy is an illegitimate president with only 4% support and that he is “a completely incompetent president, makes absurd statements, and his leadership has allowed the war to continue.”
Fact Check – The Truth Matters
Donald Trump started his first term as President in January 2017. Eight months later, the U.N. Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner reported that fighting never stopped in Ukraine. “August 2017 bucked the trend of the past three years of the conflict in eastern Ukraine with a decrease in the number of civilian casualties, according to a report by the UN Human Rights Office published today. The ‘harvest ceasefire,’ which began at the end of June, may have contributed to this. However, the ceasefire never fully took hold, with hostilities suddenly flaring and then easing.”
When Zelenskyy was elected president on 19 April 2019, fighting between Ukraine and Russian troops backed by the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic was happening every day along a 400-kilometer contact line. In 2021, the United Nations Human Rights Commission reported hundreds of casualties from 2018 to 2020. The lowest number of war casualties recorded in Ukraine since 2014 was in 2021, during the first year of the Biden Administration.
Further, on 25 November 2018, the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB) fired on three Ukrianian Navy vessels transiting the Kerch Strait to the Sea of Azov, capturing three ships and the crews in international waters. The first Trump administration went beyond acknowledging the incident, with the Treasury Department sanctioning the Russians involved in the incident on 19 March 2019.
“Five years after its invasion of Ukraine…Russia continues to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while failing to implement its obligations under the Minsk agreements. On November 25, 2018, Russian authorities opened fire on and rammed three Ukrainian ships off the coast of Crimea, seizing the ships and capturing 24 Ukrainian crew members, who remain illegally detained in Russia.”
Even Russian Bankers See No Economic Upside from the Ongoing Talks
On Tuesday, Dmitry Pyanov, First Deputy Chairman of VTB Bank Management, told reporters, “All the statements that Visa, Mastercard, Bershka, Zara, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s – may return to the Russian market – are increasingly a reflection of what is missing from the speakers – those who publicly predict the imminent return of certain companies and brands – rather than reality. Now is the very beginning stage – only bilateral negotiations without the involvement of other parties. Months, if not quarters, will pass before the agreements crystallize.”
Additionally, Western companies have lost billions since February 2022, when Moscow seized their assets, increased taxes, and the courts issued ridiculously large fines. Many corporations will be reluctant to reinvest in the Russian economy immediately. Further, Moscow has hammered the message to the Russian people that trade with the West and the United States is not required, and many internal brands have been established.
Multiple reports indicated that Russia was pushing for the lifting of energy sanctions and was willing to open Arctic regions to oil exploration by U.S. companies. Just like in Trump’s first term, he still believes that oil at $45 a barrel is possible and sustainable.
Fact Check – The Truth Matters
The idea that we’re entering a new era of “drill, baby, drill” is false. Due to global overproduction, the world is facing an oil glut. In 2017, as part of his promise that his tax reform package would result in more revenue, not less, President Trump directed the Department of Interior to take bids for oil drilling leases in the North Slope region of Alaska. The last day for new leases was 6 January 2025, and not a single oil producer submitted a bid.
According to data published by the Energy Information Administration through November 2024, the U.S. is the largest oil-producing nation on the planet. In 2023, the most recent year data is available. The U.S. produced 22% of the world’s crude oil while consuming 20%. In the fall of 2018, the last time oil prices crashed because of market conditions versus the COVID-19 pandemic, hundreds of U.S. oil producers went bankrupt because, at $50 a barrel, fracking operations are unprofitable.
If U.S. producers are uninterested in signing leases in Alaska’s North Slope under the Trump and Biden administrations, it seems even more unlikely that they’ll rush back to Russia’s oil fields.
Sound and Fury with no Tangible Results
The only concrete outcome, beyond millions of social media views and clicks, was Lavrov’s claim that Russia and the U.S. agreed to “ensure the appointment of ambassadors of Russia to the United States and the United States to Russia as soon as possible.” The U.S. Ambassador to Russia is still Lynne Tracy, while autocrat Putin relieved the Russian Ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, in October 2024 without naming a successor.
As the world reacted to the fallout from Riyadh, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wanted Zelenskyy to attend yesterday’s negotiations. However, the American and Russian delegations rejected the idea. An unnamed source in the Saudi government claimed that bin Salman would brief Zelenskyy on the discussions.
U.S. news agency Fox News reporter Jacqui Heinrich shared Ukraine’s assessment that Putin’s medium-term plan is to undermine Zelenskyy’s credibility inside and outside of Ukraine and force premature elections to install a puppet government. “Multiple foreign diplomatic sources provided this readout from the Ukrainian side: ‘Putin assesses the probability of electing a puppet president as quite high and is also convinced that any candidate other than the current President of Ukraine will be more flexible and ready for negotiations and concessions. In turn, D. Trump is ready to accept any election result, including the possibility of [the] election of a pro-Russian puppet…Trump and…Putin consider the chances of the current President of Ukraine being re-elected as low.’”
All of yesterday’s theatrics were probably moot, as the Kremlin declared again that it opposes “any peacekeeping force” from NATO Alliance countries in Ukraine. This has been, or way, a key condition in Trump’s “peace plan.”
The Rift Between the U.S. and Europe Becoming Irreparable
Then, it got worse. On Wednesday morning, Trump launched a series of attacks on his personal social media platform, Truth Social. He repeated the false claim that the U.S. has spent “$350 billion dollars to go into a war that couldn’t be won” and that the U.S. has “spent $200 billion dollars more than Europe.” He made a half-truth statement, claiming that “Zelenskyy admits that half of that money we sent him is ‘missing.’” He then called the Ukrianian a leader, a “dictator” while praising his own efforts to “end…the war with Russia.”
Fact Check – The Truth Matters
Speaking with U.S. news agency Newsmax on 6 February, Trump’s special envoy to Russia and Ukraine, Lieutenant General (retired) Keith Kellogg, said that the story that $174 billion in U.S. aid has been sent to Ukraine is “a myth.” Kellogg accurately stated that only $65.9 billion in military aid had been sent to Ukraine, of which $51.2 billion was spent by the U.S. defense industry to replenish America’s stockpiles. “We have a pretty good idea where the money is going,” Kellogg added, accurately stating that there are inspector generals on the ground in Ukraine “to track that money.”
A 15 November 2023 report by then Congressional Foreign Affairs Committee Co-chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX), Co-chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL), and Co-chairman Mike Turner (R-OH) wrote that oversight of aid to Ukraine was a priority of Republican leadership and no malfeasance had been found.
“To date, the Inspectors General of DoD [Department of Defense], State, and USAID have not identified any significant diversion, theft, or misuse of U.S. assistance to Ukraine. There are 96 ongoing or planned audits and reports by the IGs [Inspector Generals] of more than 20 different agencies, as well as the Government Accountability Office (GAO), to monitor, audit, and evaluate activities related to the Ukraine response. Thirty-nine have been completed.”
The report also concluded that Europe was providing more in military and humanitarian aid while “purchasing U.S. systems to replace them, providing an opportunity for the U.S. defense industry and American workers.”
Since that report was published, Congress approved another $61 billion of aid to Ukraine in April 2024. Between $3 and $5 billion of USAID funds have been frozen, and $3.8 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority went unused. Congress has not approved any additional funds for Ukraine since the FY2024 budget was passed last year.
Additionally, while the Trump administration has focused on only European aid, as of December 2024, only 42.7% of all delivered aid, both military and humanitarian, has come from the United States.
Both claims that Zelenskyy is a dictator with 4% support are untrue. The Ukrainian Constitution, ratified in 1996, forbids holding elections during martial law. Additionally, if martial law was lifted, the constitution bars continued military mobilization.
The new demand by Vice President J.D. Vance that for continued support, Ukraine must hold elections goes against the nation’s constitution and plays into Russia’s hands. If Ukraine holds elections but not in the occupied territories, it becomes a defacto admission of Russian control of occupied Ukraine. If elections are held in the occupied territories, they won’t be free and fair. The most recent polls from Ukraine show that Zelenskyy has between 52% and 57% support, which aligns with wartime U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.
Assessment
Almost three years ago, we warned that Ukraine’s allies must provide support not for “as long as it takes” but as fast as possible to restore the 1991 borders. Our warning was stark and now appears prophetic. Russia can be defeated in Kyiv today or Berlin in five years. As long as sanctions against Russia are not lifted, we maintain that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are well equipped through the rest of 2025.
As far back as 2011, Autocrat Putin has made it clear that his maximalist goal is the restoration of the Russian Imperial Empire’s borders. The Kremlin needs Ukraine’s population, defense production, and resources to institute the second phase of its plan: the invasions of Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Given the current political climate in Europe, it is unclear whether the NATO Alliance will respond to an Article V request from the three Baltic nations.
And after all of the positioning and statements from Russian and U.S. leaders, the most coherent assessment came from Zelenskyy, 3,275 kilometers away in Ankara.
“It seems clear to me that neither side will win this war with weapons on the battlefield. Russia wanted that but couldn’t achieve it, and no one believed in Ukraine, but it has proved itself and defended its independence. It hasn’t been easy, and we have paid a high price in the lives of our people and our soldiers. This means that a transition to diplomacy must happen, but it must lead to a just peace.”
There is always the possibility that on Thursday, President Trump will wake up in the morning, be furious with Putin, and vow to provide nuclear weapons to Ukraine, to change his mind 48 hours later. The one constant with the American leader is his complete unpredictability.
[WBHG NEWS] – After violating their self-declared 4 February ceasefire, Rwandan-backed M23 rebels secured the city of Bukavu, advancing over 90 kilometers in two weeks from occupied Goma.
“Rwanda-backed rebels have occupied a second major city in mineral-rich eastern Congo,” Congo’s government said Sunday. Militants occupied the governor’s office and pledged to sweep away the “old regime.”
The Congolese Army was in collapse and offered almost no resistance as the much smaller M23 rebel force and Rwandan army swept to the south coast of Lake Kivu and secured more of the mineral-rich region. On Saturday, Congolese soldiers retreated with thousands of panicked civilians as the geopolitical and humanitarian crisis worsened. Up to 15,000 refugees crossed into Burundi, Africa’s poorest country, amid the violence.
The capture of Bukavu essentially seals both major border crossings into Rwanda and enables the Rwandan Army and M23 rebels to use Lake Kivu for supplies and logistics.
On Tuesday, the U.N. reported that humanitarian aid warehouses were looted in the South Kivu province as social order broke down. The U.N. Human Rights Office (OHCHR) confirmed that M23 rebels executed three children in Bukavu.
“Our Office has confirmed cases of summary execution of children by M23 after they entered the city of Bukavu last week. We are also aware that children were in possession of weapons. We call on Rwanda and M23 to ensure that human rights and international humanitarian law are respected,” said OHCHR spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani.
There were additional credible reports of more extrajudicial executions, arbitrary arrests, and threats made to journalists, human rights workers, judges, lawyers, and other civil service employees. French news agency AFP confirmed that two people were “lynched” by a mob who accused them of looting.
So far, Diplomatic Efforts have Failed
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the territorial integrity of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to be preserved. “The fighting that is raging in South Kivu – as a result of the continuation of the M23 offensive – threatens to push the entire region over the precipice,” Guterres warned the African Union during an emergency summit.
African Union Peace and Security Commissioner Bankole Adeoye said regional leaders are increasingly worried that the ongoing conflict in the eastern part of the DRC will escalate into “an open regional war” over resources. During the summit, Rwanda was accused of providing supplies and logistics provided by China to the M23 rebels. Kigali has repeatedly denied the accusations.
Stéphane Dujarric, the spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Guterres, said that MONUSCO was protecting 1,400 civilians and NGO workers at the peacekeeping base in Goma. Fighting between M-23 and their Rwandan army backers and the Congolese Army has left 80 schools and 27 healthcare centers severely damaged.
South African and Malawian peacekeepers from the Southern African Development Community Mission in DRC (SAMIDRC) and the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Cong (MONUSCO) remain trapped at Goma Airport and the nearby town of Saké. South Africa’s Minister of Defense, Angie Motshekga, said the top priority was evacuating 14 dead South African soldiers and the wounded. She insisted that the SAMIDRC mission would continue despite the violence and growing tension between Congolese, Rwandan, and South African leaders.
On Monday, Uganda’s military commander, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, threatened to launch an offensive on the DRC city of Bunia, claiming, without evidence, that ethnic Bahima were being killed.
A Country of Contradictions and Bloodshed
Decades of war, instability, and corruption have killed an estimated 6 million people in the DRC since 1996. M23, or March 23, was formed in 2012 and is composed primarily of ethnic Congolese Tutsis backed by the Rwanda government. Both claim that M23 is a required force to prevent ethnic Hutus from carrying out another genocide like the one in Rwanda in 1994. The international community has repeatedly rejected these claims.
The DRC is the 10th largest country on the planet and the 5th wealthiest in terms of natural resources. Despite abundant water, high-quality copper ore, and vast amounts of rare earth elements, the Congolese are the ninth poorest in Africa in terms of GDP per capita and ranked 181st in the world.
IPC Acute Food Insecurity Map for the Democratic Republic of Congo, September 2024
Over 3.4 million people are “facing critical levels of food insecurity,” according to the latest report by the IPC. Another 22.4 million people, 19% of the population, are facing “crisis levels” of food insecurity. The September 2024 report was released prior to the dramatic increase in fighting and the suspension of humanitarian aid by the U.S.
Today, 80% of all coltan ore comes from the DRC, and 80% of the mining operations are controlled or financed by China. Coltan is refined into cobalt, which is used in a wide range of applications, including dyes, semiconductors, and rechargeable batteries.
Coltan also produces tantalum, which is used to manufacture capacitors found in almost all smartphones, computers, and electronics. In April 2024, M23 took over one of the most productive coltan mines and has been illegally exporting raw ore to Rwanda ever since.
According to a 7 January report by the U.N., M23 is earning at least $800,000 a month through the illegal mining operation just at the Rubaya Mine. Satellite images, documents, and public import/export records show how coltan ore is removed from the facility to Rwanda and then mixed with lower-quality domestically sourced ore. In 2023, the most recent year records are available, Rwanda recorded a staggering 50% increase in coltan ore exports compared to 2022. The total tonnage exceeded domestic production.
China’s interest in the DRC appears to go beyond extracting mineral wealth. While Beijing has never been formally accused of arming the M23 rebels, pictures and videos show the group is well-equipped with Chinese kit and weapons.
The Congolese Army is considered weak, poorly trained, and corrupt. Since M23 expanded its offensive in late, the army has suffered repeated humiliating defeats, with thousands of soldiers deserting. Last month in Goma, over 400 Romanian mercenaries, allegedly providing “training” and operating artillery, crossed the border into Rwanda and surrendered, abandoning their infantry mobility vehicles and weapons.
The other powers with influence on the continent, the United States, Russia, and France, have limited economic and military exposure in the DRC and Rwanda.
Türkiye was the first country to sell military equipment to the DRC three months after an international ban was lifted in late 2022. In 2024, Turkish armored vehicle manufacturer Katmerciler completed a multi-million dollar contract for 185 mine-resistant infantry mobility vehicles. Türkiye has also sold arms to Rwanda but on a much smaller scale.
In late 2024, Russia deployed a very small group of troops with the Rosgvardiya Afrika Corps, formerly known as Private Military Company Wagner Group, to the DRC. The Russian soldiers are not in the eastern part of the country, and their role remains unclear.
USAID Employees Flee as Russia Moves In
Last week, several employees with USAID and the State Department filed a lawsuit against the Trump Administration, claiming that they and their families were abandoned in the DRC capital of Kinshasa. On 28 January, rioters attacked the U.S. embassy and nine others, lighting fires, breaching fences, and looting the buildings. Widespread unrest spread across the city, with protesters targeting groups and countries they viewed responsible for the fighting on the Rwandan border.
On the same day, the U.S. closed its embassy “to the public until further notice” due to ”an increase in violence.” Embassy officials advised citizens to “shelter-in-place and then safely depart while commercial options are available.”
The lawsuit revealed the security situation in Kinshasa, over 1,500 kilometers west of the fighting, is far worse than initially reported. Court records show that one USAID employee and their family had to be extracted from their home by the U.S. Marine contingent assigned to the embassy after protesters breached the outer wall and set their home on fire.
Some U.S. government employees said the State Department abandoned them when they received notices on 4 February that they were being placed on leave despite being trapped.
Others opted to evacuate in January. Then-acting USAID administrator Jason Gray initially balked at issuing a “waiver request” to provide funds to evacuate USAID employees and their families. By the time one was issued on 29 January, many had already fled.
In public court records, one USAID worker declared, “USAID staff and their families participated in the evacuation from Kinshasa and boarded small boats alongside friends and colleagues from other foreign affairs agencies to cross the Congo River to Brazzaville. Each individual was able to take only what would fit in their lap…Staff remained at a hotel in Brazzaville for about two days before flying…to Dulles International Airport.”
According to the U.S. Embassy in the Democratic Republic of Congo, through 23 January 2025, USAID had provided $3 billion in humanitarian aid and $6 billion in total assistance over the last ten years.
Just days after the November U.S. federal elections, Russian state media agency Sputnik reported that the Russian humanitarian cooperation agency Rossotrudnuchestvo, Moscow’s equivalent to USAID, was working on starting operations in the DRC.
[WBHG NEWS] – On Friday, Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) fired approximately 400 employees from the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA), which is part of the Department of Energy (DOE).
The layoffs included almost 30% of the staff at the Pantex Nuclear Weapons Facility in Texas, security and maintenance experts, and foreign-based monitors meant to prevent nuclear proliferation. Included in the terminations were Ukrainian monitors meant to ensure the war-torn country doesn’t restart a nuclear weapons program in compliance with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
Also fired was most of the team responsible for producing and protecting replacement plutonium cores for the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. This action was taken despite a mandate by the first Trump administration to expand the production of cores, also known as pits, by 2030, which is part of an ongoing U.S. nuclear weapons modernization program.
Less than 24 hours later, the damage to national security had become clear, and the DOE was scrambling to rehire more than 300 employees.
It is a misconception that the DOE focuses on conservation, green energy, car electrification, and LED light bulbs. Since its creation, the main function of the DOE has been to regulate, protect, produce, and maintain the U.S. nuclear energy and weapons programs. Conservation and alternative energy research and development programs were expanded in the 1970s. The charter was further expanded by the George W. Bush Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.
According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), the Department of Defense (DOD) and the DOE were mandated to increase pit production from 30 per year to 80 by the end of the decade. In 2018, the NNSA submitted a plan to produce 30 pits at Los Alamos, New Mexico, and 50 more at the Savannah River Lab in South Carolina. Congress received an update in 2020, which concluded that the $350 billion project was at least two years behind schedule. Congressional reports in 2021, 2023, and 2024 show that little progress has been made to speed up production.
During the Cold War, the U.S. was capable of producing up to 1,000 pits per year, ending large-scale production in 1989. The almost complete stop occurred during an era of detente with the Soviet Union and ongoing nuclear disarmament. The same GAO report about expanding modern production noted that only a limited number of pits have been produced since 1989, and the last war reserve pits were built in 2012.
The U.S. uses Plutonium-239 to make nuclear cores, which have a half-life of 24,110 years. Despite the millennia-long decay rate, it is estimated that after 30 to 35 years, there is enough decay to impact explosive yield. It is not suggested that the U.S. nuclear arsenal would not work, just that the explosive power could be different from what is expected. In 2023, the NNSA asked Congress for $1 billion to conduct additional research on the decay rate to determine exactly when the pits need to be replaced.
Nations that started their nuclear weapons program prior to 1980 have similar challenges. The United Kingdom, France, Russia, and India also have aging nuclear arsenals, with Pakistan not far behind. While China tested its first nuclear bomb in 1964, it recently started expanding its arsenal, with a goal of having 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. That would make China a near-peer of Russia and the United States with the most modern warheads on the planet.
In 2021, the U.S. allocated $64 billion to maintain its existing nuclear stockpile, equivalent to the entire published military budget of the Russian Federation. While the NNSA’s annual report to Congress on pit production is publicly available, Moscow keeps its production data classified. Most experts believe that Russian nuclear readiness is in worse condition than the U.S., France, and the U.K.
Over the weekend, government officials said they were having a hard time tracking down the terminated employees, lacking active e-mail addresses and phone numbers in their records. Some of the fired workers didn’t find out they were released until they tried to show up to work or access secured online systems.
The DOE can trace its roots to the Atomic Energy Commission, which was formed in 1946 after the success of the Manhattan Project and the end of World War II. In 1977, the Carter Administration combined several government commissions and agencies, as well as the U.S. nuclear research labs, into the DOE. The agency also received the added charter of formulating policies for energy security and conservation, partially in response to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. Despite the expanding role of U.S. energy policy, the core function of the DOE remains nuclear-focused.
Over the last 12 months, over 1,100 unrecorded charter flights have arrived in Managua, Nicaragua, carrying more than 80,000 people from North Africa, the Middle East, India, and China, with hopes of reaching the United States. Border incidents spiked in early 2024 as Russian state media, propagandists, and their proxies amplified stories about the southwestern border crisis.
A months-long investigation, including interviewing victims, uncovered a complex web of propagandists, government officials, charter flight executives, and human traffickers selling hope of a better life in the United States via Nicaragua. What many find on their road to the southwest border is crippling debt to human smugglers, a dangerous journey through Guatemala and Mexico, and no guarantee of entry or asylum when they reach the United States.
Nicaragua’s involvement started in 2021, but in the spring of 2023, French language immigration ads targeting the citizens of Africa’s coup belt in the Sahel exploded, promising easy access to the United States. Some of the ads are financially backed by self-described Stalinist Luc Michel and his Rossosphere network and other Russian and pro-Russian sources. The social media influence campaign worked, fueling a 500% increase in United States Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) encounters with African nationals in 2023 that continues today.
According to CBP data, through June 2024, 54.5% of all encounters at the southwest land border of the United States were with citizens from Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. In 2014, it was 96.2%. Some of the shift is due to a sharp increase in the number of Haitians and Cubans attempting to cross the border, who are also part of the Nicaraguan pipeline.
Lost in the CBP 2023 data, an estimated 60,000 people from African nations were arrested at the southwest border, a 500% increase from 2022. Over one-third of those arrested from July to December 2023 were from Senegal.
US: Large numbers of single adult men from all over the world are crossing illegally into Border Patrol’s Tucson, AZ sector.
Our team shot this video in Lukeville, AZ, where men from Africa have been crossing daily, Bill Melugin reports.
A shadowy network of travel agents, tour companies, and charter airlines, supported by advertising on WhatsApp and Telegram and social media influencers on TikTok and Twitter (also known as X), charge migrants $10,000 to $100,000 for transport to Nicaragua, then a taxi ride to Honduras, and overland travel by handlers to the United States-Mexico border.
Changes in Nicaraguan visa laws and the selling of special immigration visas by the Daniel Ortega regime have turned Mangua into what some activists call a hub for human trafficking.
Russia and its alliance of nations have weaponized immigration in Europe, with Poland and Finland bearing the brunt of attempted border crossings. Moscow has learned that anti-immigration sentiment is a hot-button issue for pro-Russian isolationists and uses information warfare to amplify fear and misinformation, with increasingly violent results. In 2023, investigators in Europe found that Moscow went further and was directly involved in funneling migrants from Northern Africa and the Middle East to the Polish border through Belarus and the Finnish border.
Nicaragua’s Weaponization of U.S. Immigration is Profitable
Passports from African nations are among the weakest in the world, requiring travelers from a majority of countries to apply for visas before arrival. In late 2021, Nicaraguan Dictator Daniel Ortega loosened visa requirements for Cubans, Haitians, and several African nations and made further changes in early 2023. Despite the formal immigration policies, a program was created to sell visas at Nicaragua’s points of entry to immigrants arriving on charter flights. Their information is undocumented, and they don’t receive a passport stamp.
May 2024 – Irregular migrants from Africa outside the main airport terminal at Augusto Cesar Sandino International Airport in Managua, Nicaragua, awaiting transport to the Honduras border – photo credit AriosMedios, photographer name withheld for their protection
Called irregular migrants, upon arrival, they pay between $150 and $250 in cash to Nicaragua’s General Directorate of Migration and Immigration (GDMI). The funds are classified as “other service fees” and “fines” by the Ortega regime and netted $43.5 million in 2023, almost 65% of the income collected by the GDMI. Reviewing public records from 2021 and 2022, the revenue from “other service fees” grew by 62% in 2023.
Migrants have been instructed to hire a taxi driver, who will charge around $50 for the 5-hour drive to the Honduras border or are met by handlers. The drivers who wait for the migrants are authorized to access the airport and use the same taxi stands for tourist and business travelers. They gather as the charter flights arrive, with some walking outside the airport, holding up the pictures and names of the irregular migrants they’ve been pre-hired to transport.
People from Africa and the Middle East pay agencies between $5,000 and $10,000 for charter flights from Dakar, Dubai, Madrid, and Casablanca and another $3,000 to $5,000 for the journey to the U.S. border. Citizens of India and China, which make up a much smaller percentage of immigrants, are charged as much as $96,000 while receiving a “white glove” experience. The common experience between them all is the charter flight to Managua.
The human trade isn’t limited to the Middle East and Africa. Through October 2023, charter flight operators flew over 35,000 people out of Haiti and up to 20,000 from Cuba, charging $3,000 to $5,000 for the short flight to Managua. On October 31, 2023, the Port-au-Prince government banned all charter flights to Nicaragua, leaving thousands stranded and in debt. Before the ban, 60% of Haitians arriving at the Southwest border connected through Nicaragua.
In June, the U.S. government accused Ortega and his wife of putting in place “migration policies that have introduced opportunities for migrant smuggling and trafficking networks to exploit migrants for economic gain and fuel dangerous, irregular travel towards the U.S. southwest border.”
Fear Sells Plane Tickets and Funds Human Smugglers
The cheaper route for migration to the United States is via flights to Brazil, Columbia, and Venezuela. However, this route requires a 130-kilometer crossing of the Darien Gap. The region divides Panama and Columbia and is made up of mosquito-infested swamps, rainforests, and steep mountains. Less than 9,000 people live in the region, which has no infrastructure, not even primitive roads. The terrain isn’t the only danger. Human traffickers, cartels, kidnappers, and robbers operate throughout the gap, targeting people moving north.
In May 2023, the migrant route through Managua became so popular that the Nicaraguan government hired a Dubai-based company to train Nicaragua’s civil aviation officials to create and manage immigration procedures for the charter flights.
El Salvador was also a growing port of entry for migrants seeking access to the United States. In October 2023, the country added a $1,130 per person tax on travelers arriving from 57 countries, mostly in Africa, to deter irregular immigration.
Russia’s 40-Year History with Dictator Daniel Ortega and a Renewed Relationship
Ortega has opposed the United States since the 1980s when he led the Soviet-backed Sandinistas against the United States-backed Contra rebels. He and his wife, Rosario Murillo, have ruled Nicaragua as dictators since 2007 and embraced Russia in 2015. In 2016, Moscow donated 50 T-72 main battle tanks, with Nicaragua’s neighbors expressing concern over the import of heavy weapons. In 2017, Russia built a GLONASS satellite navigation ground station and, in 2022, established a small permanent military base.
Also, in 2022, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on three Nicaraguan entities for “repressive actions” and a failure to decrease human smuggling through the country. One of the sanctioned companies is a Russian training center operating in Managua since October 2017 that enables anti-democratic behavior and repression. A press release from the Treasury Department said Russia was one of Nicaragua’s “main partners” and accused Russia of providing specialized courts for the Nicaraguan National Police. Moscow backs “a repressive state apparatus, carrying out extrajudicial killings, using live ammunition against peaceful protests, and even participating in death squads.”
Highlighting the strength of the relationship between Managua and Moscow, on October 12, 2022, Nicaragua was one of only four countries in the United Nations that voted against condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, joining The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and Syria.
Honduras Supports the Nicaraguan Route by Creating a Legal Path
In response to the growing tension along the Nicaragua border and the increasing number of undocumented migrants reaching Honduras, the government created a program that permits undocumented migrants to pass through the country if they exit within five days. In 2023, Honduras also waived fines normally levied on irregular migrants trying to buy bus tickets, as it left thousands stranded.
When taxi drivers drop off the irregular migrants on the border, they are greeted by handlers who provide one-night lodging with a meal and assistance on their journey through Honduras. The agencies and handlers complete the government paperwork and give the migrants a bright yellow bracelet. The bracelet identifies them as “legal travelers” through Honduras, so the police do not stop them. They travel in groups of 20 to 100 and connect with new handlers in Guatemala.
These programs have turned Honduras into a sort of rest area before the harder and more dangerous journey through Guatemala and Mexico.
Nicaragua is Working with Russia to Influence U.S. Politics and Elections
Speaking with El Pais, Manuel Orozco, a migration expert and analyst at The Inter-American Dialogue, said that Ortega’s ultimate goal is to provoke the United States. “Ortega said that they were going to send migrants to the United States. So, the motivation is fundamentally political and ideological due to the hatred that Ortega has for the U.S.”
Russia has run similar hybrid warfare campaigns across Europe with mixed results. Illegal immigration, particularly from the Sahel and Northern Africa, was front and center during recent elections in The Netherlands, Germany, and France.
In November 2023, Finland closed its border crossing with Russia due to the weaponization of immigration and Moscow’s direct involvement.
The situation on Poland’s border with Belarus is worse. Middle East agencies have created videos mocking Polish border guards, openly showing that Russia and Belarus are directly involved in their transit. In May, a Polish soldier was stabbed to death by a migrant attempting to cross the Belarus-Polish border. On July 13, the Polish Seym approved a law that authorizes border guards and soldiers to fire live ammunition at migrants for “self-defense” and in a “preventative manner.”
Russian and Iranian Anti-immigration Disinformation Campaigns Fueled Riots in the United Kingdom
A shocking demonstration of how powerful Russia’s hybrid warfare campaigns have become played out in the United Kingdom. On July 29, 17-year-old Axel Muganwa Rudakubana, a British citizen born in Cardiff, entered a studio in Southport, stabbed three children to death, and seriously injured eight more and two adults. The victims were attending a summer Taylor Swift-themed dance lesson, and the injured adults tried to stop the attack. A Russian disinformation campaign amplified by far-right parties in the U.K. led to two days of riots, dozens injured, and shops, cars, homes, and a mosque vandalized and burned.
On July 29, while emergency services were still removing the injured, a Russian disinformation campaign started. It was quickly picked up and amplified by the targeted audience. Posts on social media, especially Twitter (also known as X), alleged the attacker was a 20-year-old Islamic extremist who arrived illegally in the U.K. by crossing the English Channel in a boat. They claimed he was a political refugee seeking asylum despite being on a terrorist watch list, and the stabbings were an act of Islamic-motivated terrorism. Those claims were picked up by fake news sites with legitimating sound names and amplified by British tabloids and even ITV, better known as Channel 3.
The false claims spread on Twitter, Facebook, Telegram, and Instagram and were viewed over 18 million times and amplified by large accounts, including Tommy Robinson, accused rapist Andrew Tate, and British politician Nigel Farage.
On extreme right-wing social media channels, white nationalists and isolations planned protests, which quickly devolved into riots. In an attempt to quell the unrest, British officials made the unusual step of providing as much information about the suspect within the law as British born with immigrant parents. It did nothing to quell the unrest, which left Southport shattered and local residents feeling they were attacked for a second time.
On August 1, the British court took the extraordinary step of releasing the juvenile attacker’s name and providing press access to his first hearing. Rudakubana didn’t arrive by boat, wasn’t on a terrorist watch list, and isn’t an Islamic extremist.
Prosecutors told the court that he was diagnosed with autism and had been “unwilling to leave the house and communicate with family for a period of time.” The British tabloid The Mirror interviewed neighbors, who described the teen as shy but happy, a lover of singing and music, actively involved with the local church, and, from outward appearances, having supportive parents.
In the aftermath of the disinformation-fueled violence, new U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed that the far-right rioters would face the “full force of the law.” He added that the “criminal disorder” was “clearly driven by far-right hatred” and issued a warning to social media firms. “Let me also say to large social media companies and those who run them. Violent disorder clearly whipped up online: that is also a crime. It’s happening on your premises, and the law must be upheld everywhere.”
Hours later, Twitter’s billionaire owner, Elon Musk, responded with exclamation points to a tweet by Tommy Robinson, condemning Starmer for calling the rioters “thugs” and for giving “police more power to prevent further protests.” While a small act, Musk alleges to have over 190 million followers, wielding massive global influence.
The protests are far from over, with up to 30 right-wing and anti-immigration organizations planning to descend on Southport this weekend. A new disinformation campaign is spreading on Twitter, accusing a Muslim extremist of being arrested for having a knife near the damaged mosque in Southport. The man arrested was Jordan Davies, 32, a known British white supremacist.
Weaponized immigration also brought unrest to the United States. In February 2024, hundreds of protesters descended on Eagle Pass, Texas, after Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency and blocked federal officials from accessing a small area of the United States-Mexico border. Those protests were fueled in part by a surge in immigration fueled by the actions of Nicaragua and amplified on social media platforms.
Russian disinformation campaigns made wild claims and actively encouraged the decades-long Texas Secession movement. The right-wing protesters who arrived at Eagle Pass discovered that undocumented migrants arrived in a steady stream of small groups, and along nearby areas on the border, only desert could be found. Others were surprised to find few Latin Americans crossing the border.
The Biden Administration and Other Nations are Quietly Fighting Back
The Biden Administration has quietly taken steps to stem the flow. Sanctions announced on May 15 included over 250 members of the Nicaraguan government, including “select non-government actors for their roles in supporting the Ortega-Murillo regime in its attacks on human rights and fundamental freedoms, repression of civil society organizations and profiting off of vulnerable migrants.”
On June 13, the State Department imposed visa restrictions on an unnamed executive of a “charter flight transport company” for facilitating irregular migration to the United States via Nicaragua from outside the Western Hemisphere.” Matthew Miller, the spokesperson for the State Department, said the unnamed individual preys “on vulnerable migrants by operating services designed primarily to facilitate irregular migration to the United States. At the same time, the Ortega-Murillo regime in Nicaragua continues to financially benefit from the exploitation of vulnerable migrants.”
Two days later, it was announced that more sanctions had been imposed. Visa restrictions were added to additional “owners, executives, and senior officials of companies providing transportation by land, sea, or charter air designed for use primarily by persons intending to migrate irregularly to the United States…for knowingly facilitating the travel of irregular migrants to the U.S. southwest border.”
On July 3, an agreement was reached with Panama to cover the costs of repatriating migrants who enter Panama illegally through the Darien Gap. Last year, over 500,000 people made the dangerous journey.
Two weeks later, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino announced security forces had closed some unofficial access points and started installing barbed wire fencing to funnel migrants to a single checkpoint.
In May 2024, according to the State Department, an Egyptian court initiated the trial of 16 people accused of smuggling migrants to the United States and have been charged with acts of organized crime and human smuggling. According to Egyptian officials, the group arranged air transportation of migrants and placed them in “dangerous, degrading, and inhuman circumstances throughout the smuggling process.”
Also in May, authorities in Jamaica refused landing rights to a charter plane carrying irregular migrants.
In June, the number of migrants trying to cross the U.S. border dropped to the lowest level since 2019. Most Americans have forgotten about Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Operation Lonestar, and the standoff between federal officials and the Texas National Guard.
That’s probably set to change. Less than 12 hours after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection, the Associated Press reported that a caravan of 2,000 migrants from over a dozen countries, waiting in Ciudad Hidalgo, Mexico, had started their journey to the U.S. border.
The city sits on the border with Guatemala, and some of the irregular migrants told reporters they had waited for weeks for travel permits, which were unexpectedly approved shortly after Biden’s announcement.
This is part four of a ten-part series that explains the rise of modern Islamic extremism. From 1951 to 2021, a series of key geopolitical events, many independent of each other, caused the Islamic Revolution, the rise of Al Qaeda and ISIS, the creation and collapse of the caliphate, and the reconstitution of ISIS as ISKP. While Western influence and diplomatic blunders are well documented through this period, the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation are equally culpable. The editors would like to note that a vast majority of the 1.8 billion people who are adherents to some form of Islam are peaceful and reject all forms of religious violence.
State-sanctioned violence grows in Afghanistan as the Soviets prepare to withdraw
Moscow forces the replacement of their puppet leader in Afghanistan and struggles to find an exit
When the Soviets assassinated Hafizullah Amin on December 27, 1979, and installed Babrak Karmal as their puppet leader, KGB head Yury Andropov advocated for Mohammad Najibullah to be installed as the head of the state security services of Afghanistan—the KHAD. After his appointment, Andropov immediately started an influence campaign to convince Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev and Amin to support expanding Najibullah’s power, which earned him a seat in the Afghanistan Politburo.
When Najibullah took over the KHAD in 1980, he was responsible for 120 people. Six years later, the KHAD was an independent government Ministry with 30,000 highly paid employees trained by KGB advisors. Most of the KHAD budget came from the Soviet Union, and shortly after Andropov became the General Secretary of the Soviet Union in November 1983, he started laying the groundwork to replace Karmal with his protege, Najibullah.
During the six years Najibullah led the KHAD, the KGB funded and trained its staff. Over 16,000 extrajudicial executions were carried out, and 100,000 were imprisoned. The KHAD brutally tortured peasants and tribesmen, burned villages, killed livestock, and destroyed crops in an attempt to identify members of the mujahadeen. In the cities, anti-communists, intellectuals, professors, doctors, and educated professionals were threatened, assassinated, falsely imprisoned, and executed. Flush with funds from the Soviet Union and under Najibullah’s leadership, the KHAD was wildly corrupt.
When Mikhail Gorbachev became the Soviet Premier in 1985, he continued to follow the path created by Andropov, believing that after the Soviet withdrawal, Najibullah would be a stronger leader who would stay loyal to Moscow. The Main Defense Intelligence Directorate of the Soviet Union (GRU) disagreed. In their assessment, Najibullah would be even more polarizing than Karmal and would not be able to build a strong coalition with the various Afghan tribal warlords. Gorbachev was unmoved.
Soviet Union soldiers in Kabul, Afghanistan -1986 Credit – Photographer unknown – public domain
Moscow hoped that their newly installed leader could bring the fractured Afghanistan nation to reconciliation, ending eight years of violence, allowing the exit of Soviet troops, and keeping a pro-Soviet government in place. On May 4, 1986, Najibullah was made the General Secretary of the Afghanistan Politburo, with Karmal remaining as the Chairman of the Revolutionary Council. The assessment by the GRU that ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Pashtuns would resist cooperating with Najibullah, and the armed factions fighting against Soviet troops would reject him was accurate. Additionally, Karmal fought back, openly questioning Najibullah’s loyalty to Afghanistan, exposing his trail of corruption, and spreading misinformation.
Najibullah complained to Moscow that Karmal was interfering with his rule and asked for guidance, with Gorbachev deciding on a non-violent solution. In November 1986, Karmal was dismissed from the Revolutionary Council and exiled to Moscow. The Kremlin now saw the reconciliation strategy as a failure and decided that negotiating peace was the best option. Gorbachev also believed that due to the improving relationship with the United States, he could push for more favorable terms.
In March 1987, the first round of U.N.-sponsored peace talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan was held in Geneva, Switzerland, with the U.S. and the Soviet Union as guarantors. Pakistan negotiators refused to meet with the Afghanistan delegation because they did not recognize the Soviet-backed and controlled government as legitimate. The first round of negotiations failed, with Pakistan refusing to agree to a 16-month timetable for a controlled withdrawal of Soviet troops, demanding it be eight months. Additionally, the Soviets asked for the immediate end of U.S. arms shipments and financial support to the Afghan resistance as a condition for Soviet withdrawal. Washington refused.
In July, Najibullah made a secret trip to Moscow to meet with Gorbachev. The Soviet leader pressed him to make additional government reforms, hoping that the dead reconciliation plan could be brought back to life. Gorbachev’s council was undermined by the KGB, who advised against implementing some of his recommended reforms. Returning to Afghanistan, Najibullah announced that single-party rule would end. However, there were tight restrictions on what platforms would be acceptable. New parties were required to want to maintain relations with the Soviet Union, had to be Muslim, and had to oppose colonialism, imperialism, Zionism, racial discrimination, apartheid, and fascism. The mujahadeen and all but one armed faction fighting against the Soviet-backed Afghan government boycotted the August elections, but several new leftist parties were formed and were able to gain a handful of government seats.
In September, a second round of peace talks was held in Geneva. While progress was made in establishing the legitimacy of the Afghan government, no progress was made in establishing a timetable for the Soviet withdrawal, and the U.S. again refused to end military and financial aid before the Soviet troop withdrawal was complete.
In November, during the conference of the Afghanistan Politburo, Najibullah proposed accelerating the timetable for the Soviet withdrawal from 16 months to 12. A new constitution was approved, creating the office of the President. On November 30, Najibullah, running unopposed, was elected president of Afghanistan. Under the mandate of the new constitution, the Revolutionary Council would be dissolved and replaced with a General Assembly elected by the people.
On February 8, 1988, Soviet negotiators announced a conditional date of withdrawal from Afghanistan, hoping that the U.S. would agree to the immediate end of military and financial aid to the Afghanistan rebels. Washington rejected the proposal. With the domestic situation in the Soviet Union deteriorating, Gorbachev decided that an unfavorable peace deal was better than remaining in Afghanistan.
On April 14, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Soviet Union, and the U.S. signed the Geneva Accords. Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to non-interference and non-intervention, and Pakistan agreed to stop the flow of weapons across its border. The Soviet Union agreed that the withdrawal of the 40th Combined Arms Army would begin on May 15 and be completed by February 15, 1989. The U.S. did not have to end military and financial aid before the completion of the Soviet withdrawal.
On February 15, 1989, the last column of BTR-80 armored personnel carriers of the Soviet 40th Combined Arms Army crossed the Friendship Bridge into Soviet Uzbekistan. General Boris Gromov symbolically walked behind the troops, becoming the last Soviet soldier to withdraw from Afghanistan. Mobbed by reporters, he cursed profusely, later explaining that his anger was directed at “the leadership of the country, at those who start the wars while others have to clean up the mess.”
The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan elevates Osama bin Laden to a cult of personality
There are questions about how much combat Osama bin Laden was engaged in with the mujahedeen, but he did participate in a handful of tactical battles. During his time in Pakistan and Afghanistan, bin Laden used his wealth and influence to promote victories on the battlefield and recruit Arabs to the Islamic cause within Afghanistan. While bin Laden was media-shy, his talent as a leader was well-known in the Middle East, converting his influence into a cult of personality.
Osama bin Laden -1988 Credit – Photographer unknown – public domain
But bin Laden was looking ahead to the future. In 1988, shortly after the signing of the Geneva Accords, he quietly founded Al Qaeda. For him, Afghanistan was the end of the beginning. Al Qaeda would continue its violent jihad against what he perceived were the enemies of fundamentalist Islam and fight to establish Muslim states controlled by Sharia law.
Despite fighting against the Soviet Union, a lot of bin Laden’s beliefs were influenced by his exposure to Soviet propaganda, including late 19th Century Eastern European and Imperial Russia antisemitism. In the simplest of terms, bin Laden believed that Muslim Arabs faced four enemies: the Jews and Israel, the United States, “heretics,” and Shia Muslims, particularly Iranian Shias.
At the time of the Soviet withdrawal, bin Laden believed that the West had wronged Arabs and Muslims worldwide. The Al Qaeda charter established that the people of democratic nations directly participate in their government, making them legitimate military targets due to their complicity in their government decisions. Further, any “good Muslim” civilian who was killed due to their proximity to an attack would be blessed in death and go to paradise.
In 1989, bin Laden returned to Saudi Arabia and was given a hero’s welcome along with his Al Qaeda Arab Legion. He continued to lead a triple life, running aspects of the family construction business, continuing to work with Pakistan and Saudi Arabian intelligence agencies, and indirectly and directly supporting jihadist activity in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
Bin Laden would return to Afghanistan to personally lead up to 800 Al Qaeda fighters in Operation Jalalabad, which was an attempt to install a pro-Pakistani mujahadeen government in Kabul. Although Soviet troops had withdrawn from Afghanistan, military aid to the Najibullah government continued. Moscow sent approximately $4 billion in weapons and ammunition, including OTR-21 Tochka-U short-range ballistic missile launchers with Scarab missiles and Su-27 multirole fighter aircraft.
Operation Jalalabad was a complete failure, with the Afghan army using its arsenal to stop the offensive. Up to 500 of bin Laden’s militants were killed, and he was forced to return to Saudi Arabia, further imbittered by another betrayal.
Once back in Saudi Arabia, bin Laden supported opposition movements against the Saudi royal family and ordered the executions of the leaders of the Soviet-backed Yemeni government. He also interfered with reunification talks in Yemen, which has led to decades of civil war, famine, and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The unrest continues to this day, with north Yemini rebels switching from Al Qaeda-oriented dogma to gaining support from the Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran. Today, the IRGC-backed Houthi rebels control approximately 30 percent of Yemen and have interfered with global shipping since November 2023 in support of the Hamas-initiated war against Israel.
The increasing influence of bin Laden and his meddling in Saudi government affairs drew the attention of King Fahd and the ire of the then-President of Saudi Arabia, Ali Abdullah Saleh. They now viewed bin Laden as more than a problem they could manage—he was becoming a threat.
The Saudis weren’t the only country warily watching bin Laden and the Al Qaeda Arab Legion. U.S. intelligence was also hearing chatter that his plans weren’t just contained to the Greater Middle East.
It was now 1990, and in less than two years, the first attempted Al Qaeda terror attack on U.S. soil would be stopped, and the Saudi government would send bin Laden into exile.
Over the last four chapters, we’ve outlined a number of events that individually, are completely disconnected. However, in 1991, all roads from the Soviet Union, the U.S., Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan converge to Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. The only thing missing was the final spark. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was preparing to light that fire.
Tomorrow’s installment: Iraq invades Kuwait, sparking the First Gulf War. The Saudi Royal Family rejects a plan by Osama bin Laden, sending him into exile. The Soviet Union starts to collapse and the Kremlin starts another war.
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