Tag Archives: black sea fleet

Explosions rock airfield in Russia-controlled Crimea – August 9, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,084 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Northeast Donetsk

Reconnaissance groups of the Russian Federation probed Ivano-Daryivka and Vesele. Both groups were located by Ukrainian forces, suffered losses, and retreated across the administrative border of the Luhansk oblast.

Bakhmut

Russian proxy forces, led by Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group and supported by terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion of Russia, continued fighting on the eastern edge of Soledar without success.

Wagner Group also attempted to advance on Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, and Vershyna. There was no change to the line of conflict.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian proxy forces and Ukrainian troops continue to fight in Kodema and for control of Zaitseve.

The Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka, 20 kilometers southwest of Bakhmut, was hit by Russian missiles.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

Fighting west of Donetsk was significantly reduced with only positional battles in Krasnohorivka,  Avdiivka, Pisky, and Marinka. There was no change in territorial control, and artillery fire along the line of contact was reduced.

Near the Donetsk and Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces attempted to advance on Shevchenko from Petrivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukraine launched another rocket attack on Melitopol using the NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), destroying a large ammunition depot.

Russian and Ukrainian forces fired artillery, mortars, and rockets from multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) from Marinka to Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv to Kamyanske in Zaporizhia.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Shevchenko from Petrivka and were unsuccessful.

Kharkiv

There wasn’t any significant ground fighting northwest, north, or northeast of Kharkiv city. Both belligerents have settled into a defensive posture and have reinforced their defensive lines.

Kharkiv city was hit by S-300 antiaircraft missiles deployed in a ground-to-ground capacity. The missiles damaged the city trolley system, knocked out power, and caused moderate damage to a steam generation plant that provides heat and hot water to a third of the city’s residents.

Kherson

Russian state media showed a video of the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson after it was hit by artillery on Sunday night. Areas where repair work was ongoing were redamaged.

A Russian ammunition depot in Novooleksiivka was on fire with secondary explosions. The settlement is just northeast of the Crimea Peninsula and is the first major railroad junction in southern Ukraine.

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Izyum

Southeast of Izyum, Russian forces fought a positional battle near Bohorodychne supported by artillery and were unsuccessful.

Dnipropetrovsk

The city of Nikopol was hit by over 120 60 Grad rockets fired by MLRS from a Russian firebase within the Zaporizhzhia NPP compound. Valentyn Reznichenko, Administrative and Military Governor of the Dnipropetrovsk, reported there were no injuries, but over 50 homes were destroyed.

Sumy

Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor reported that Seredyna-Buda, Esman, Khotin, Myropillya, Krasnopillya, Velyka Pysarivka, and Hlukhiv were shelled.

Chernihiv

In Chernihiv, the settlements of Senkivka and Hremyach were shelled by Russian forces over the international border.

Odesa-Black Sea

Up to twelve massive explosions rocked the Saky air force base in Russia-occupied Novofedorivka, Crimea. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported there was an accident that caused ammunition to explode, setting off a chain reaction and additional fires. The MOD claims that no aircraft were damaged in the incident. The 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment of the Black Sea fleet is stationed at Saky, operating Su-30 and Su-24 fighter planes.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian offenses in Bakhmut and Donetsk have stalled due to a lack of adequately trained and equipped light infantry troops and the inability to utilize overwhelming artillery fire.
  2. Ukrainian interdiction effort of Russian supplies that started in early July is impacting Russian offensive operations theaterwide.
  3. Reports on Ukrainian and Russian military losses since February 24 estimated the war caused almost 200,000 military casualties since February 24.

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Russians make little progress – August 1, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,076 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Northeast Donetsk – A Russian reconnaissance group probed Ukrainian positions in the Serebrianka area in the direction of Siversk. The unit was destroyed.

Bakhmut – Fighting continues in Stryapivka, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Soledar. Fighting has also continued in Pokrovske. We maintain the northern half of the settlement is a no man’s land with neither belligerent able to hold control of the area.

Fighting continues in the Svitlodarsk bulge, where Russian forces did not make additional progress in Vershyna, Semyhirya, or Travneve.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Fighting continued west of Donetsk along a broad front, including Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. Russian forces made no forward progress after achieving gains on July 30 and small gains in Pisky on the morning of July 31.

There were reports that Ukrainian forces had launched a limited counteroffensive south of Hulyaipole last week, and fresh reports today that advances toward Polohy were made.

There were reports of a large explosion at the airbase northwest of Melitopol. The General Staff did not report they made a HIMARS strike at the Russian-controlled airfield.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces hit a large Russian ammunition depot using rockets fired by High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in the settlement of Skadovsk. Residents reported that Russian troops had been bringing large quantities of the ammunition “for days” into the area.

An ammunition depot was hit in Russian-controlled Beryslav, also producing a large fire.

In Kakhovka, Insurgents destroyed the car of Russia-collaborator Vitaliy Efimenko. The vehicle he was driving was armored, with Efimenko suffering injuries in the attack.

In Kherson, Russian troops have dug trenches and defensive positions on the north bank of the Dnipro River at the entrance of the disabled Antonovskiy Bridge. Russian forces continue to mix civilian and military traffic on the military-operated ferry. Combat engineers have started repairs on the deck of the bridge.

At the Nova Kakhovka Dam, the railroad tracks that cross the spillway have been destroyed. The bridge has received a temporary repair using steel plates to cover the damaged area. The road is operational but reduced to a single lane.

There are reports that Oleksandrivka [Kherson] is under Russian control again.

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Izyum – Russian forces launched an unsuccessful offensive on Husarivka. There continues to be an increase in activity northwest of Izyum along the Siverski Donets River.

Odesa – Two missiles were fired into the Odesa oblast, landing in a sparsely populated area near a quarry. The strike caused a brush fire, but there wasn’t any additional information on damage or casualties.

The first boat carrying Ukrainian grain departed from an Odesa area port. The ship is carrying a load of corn that will arrive in Lebanon. The Ukrainian and Russian government declared the departure as a sign of progress.

Sevastopol – Russian authorities are now claiming the attack on the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol was a locally launched attack using modified consumer drones.

Daily Assessment

  1. The number of areas with an active insurgency in Ukraine is expanding with increasing attacks and assassination attempts in Russian-occupied territory.
  2. A deficit in trained light infantry, disruption of logistics, and the continued destruction of ammunition depots are impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities.
  3. Russian troop movements indicate that offensive operations toward Bakhmut and Donetsk are being prioritized while defensive operations in Kherson and Zaporizhia are being reinforced.

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Mykolaiv shattered in missile attack – July 31, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,075 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance toward Siversk from any direction. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported fighting in Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, or Berestove. A small Russian reconnaissance group was discovered in the area of Serebryanka and neutralized.

Bakhmut – Russian forces are attempting to gain full control of Pokrovske and fighting continued. The northern half of the settlement has turned into a no man’s land where control is constantly shifting.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces continue to work on collapsing the pocket. The settlement of Semyhirya was attacked from three sides, with Russian forces advancing to the eastern edge of the town. Russian forces attempted to advance on Zaitseve and Travneve and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) continue to attempt to advance on Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Opytne, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. The General Staff reported that Russian forces had made some gains in Avdiivka but were non-specific. Russian sources had reported gains on July 30.

Russian forces made territorial gains north of Krasnohorivka, crossing the H-20 highway and reaching the railroad spur line. Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack from Opytne toward Spartak and successfully drove back the Russian advance.

Russian forces withdrew from the settlements of Verkhnii Tokmak and Chernihivka in Zaporizhia after their positions were shelled. The Ukrainian General Staff reports the roads have been mined. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims this is part of a planned troop rotation.

Kherson – In Kherson, the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridge was attacked for a second time and is likely unusable through the rest of the war. The attack hit the bridge at the abutment, breaking the girders that connect the bridge girders and smashing the top deck.

Operational Command South reported that the Ukrainian air force flew multiple sorties on the settlement of Russian-controlled Beryslav and destroyed two ammunition depots.

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Mykolaiv – Oleksandr Sienkevych, the Mayor of Mykolaiv, reported the city experienced “the strongest ever” missile and rocket attack of the war. The city was hit with at least 40 missiles and rockets fired by multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Oleksii Vadaturskyi, a Hero of Ukraine and the owner of the major grain trading company Nibulon, and his wife were killed when a rocket struck their house. Vadaturskyi was 74.

Zaporizhia – The Nikopolskyi District of Zaporizhzhia was struck by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). One person was injured in the attack, which knocked out water and natural gas service.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv as the front remained frozen. The Nemyshlianskyi District in Kharkiv city was hit by a missile overnight.

Izyum – Russian forces increased ground combat activity after an extended lull on the axis. A Russian reconnaissance unit moved along the line of conflict between Nova Husarivka and Husarivka but was repelled. Another recon group tried to scout Ukrainian positions in Dolyna but was unsuccessful, and a Russian advance into Dmytrivka failed.

The General Staff reported that Ukrainian positions “near” Andriivka [Kharkiv] were shelled. This information indicates that marginal gains have been made from the west, and we now consider the settlement contested. In Svatove, 65 kilometers east-northeast of Izyum, insurgents destroyed switching and control boxes for the railroad lines.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor reported that Velyka Pysarivka, Bilopillya, and Seredyna-Buda were shelled by mortar and artillery fire.

Odessa – A pilot boat hit an improvised explosive device at the mouth of the Bystroye Canal, causing significant damage. The vessel lost power and drifted out of the shipping canal but did not sink. The crew was rescued, but the canal used for the transit of Ukrainian grain was closed.

A Russian missile attack on the Odesa oblast hit a mine at a quarry. The specific location was not reported at press time.

Sevastopol – The Russian state media news agency TASS reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to attack the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Russian-occupied Sevastopol. According to mayor Mikhail Razvozzhaev, five people were injured in the attack. Area officials canceled Navy Day festivities and advised all persons to stay home.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces are attempting broad but ineffective offensive operations to spread Ukrainian military resources and attempt to force a delay in pending larger counteroffensives.
  2. Increased shelling and reconnaissance in the Chepil region of the Izyum axis likely is not a precursor to a larger offensive in this direction, given Russian failures at contested water crossings.
  3. Russian forces continue to lose ground south of Izyum, reinforcing previous assessments that Russian combat power has reached a culmination point on this axis.

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Kherson Cut Off – July 27, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 22 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,072 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – Russian forces remain blocked at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Another attempt to advance on Verkhnokamyanske was made, and it was unsuccessful. Russian forces also attacked Hryhorivka, supported by airstrikes, but could not break through Ukrainian defenses.

Northeast Donetsk – Positional battles continued in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. On the morning of July 25, Ukrainian forces reported they had liberated Berestove. Late on July 25, it appeared Russian forces had recaptured the settlement for the second time Early on the morning of July 27, Ukrainian forces recaptured the town. The village is completely destroyed from months of fighting, and the T-1302 Highway is badly damaged.

Bakhmut – East of Soledar, Russian forces occupied Stryapivka temporarily. They likely attempted to extend too far into Soledar and were pushed back by Ukrainian forces. Fighting for control of the village continued.

Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group claimed to have fully secured Pokrovske, east of Bakhmut. Reports of continued fighting, artillery, and airstrikes indicate that gains have likely been overstated.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant and Luhanske on the evening of July 25. Ukrainian forces also withdrew from Novoluhanske to avoid becoming encircled. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group were confirmed to be on the power plant grounds. Russian forces attempted to advance from Roty to Semyirya to seal off retreating Ukrainian troops and were unsuccessful. Russian forces needed 62 days to advance 5.5 kilometers and secure the power plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Pavlivka and were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges from Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces using High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacked the Antonovskiyy Bridge for the third time and the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge. The Antonovskiyy Bridge is severely damaged with significant structural damage. Russian state media reported the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge was damaged but did not provide further details. Russian forces in Kherson are now cut off from road and rail lines on the west side of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces have completed construction of a pontoon bridge adjacent to the destroyed Darivika Bridge over the Inhulets River. Due to poor operational security, it is likely the bridge will be a priority target in the coming days.

Operational Command South reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Bilohirka, indicating the settlement is still under Russian control. It was also reported that Andriivka [Kherson] and Lozove are liberated.

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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role and Kh-59 cruise missiles at Mykolaiv. Up to eight missiles struck an already destroyed railroad bridge over the Inhulets River,  one missile hit the port, and another hit a thermal plant.

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives from July 25 to July 26 north or northeast of Kharkiv. Both sides fired artillery rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and fired from tanks.

Ukrainian forces used a Switchblade 300 kamikaze drone to attack a car at the Russian border checkpoint in Troebortnoe, north of Kharkiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims one person was killed, a Moldovian citizen, and two were wounded. Ukraine claims that two FSB agents were killed.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated. With reconnaissance in force, Russian forces attempted to advance on Chepil and suffered heavy losses.

There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces withdrew from Yatskivka and Studenok. We had previously reported that Russian troops had been pushed entirely out of Bohorodychne. Additionally, between July 21 and July 25, the bridge between Russian-controlled Yarmivka and Studenok was destroyed. In Russian-controlled Borova, a HIMARS strike hit the railroad yard, where Russian military equipment was staged for transport.

The Exiled Borova City Council reported that Russian troops have been withdrawing from the Izyum axis since July 22. Troops are reportedly moving north, and the field hospital for wounded Russian soldiers in Borova was closed.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and rockets fired by MLRS struck the settlements of Esman, Krasnopillya, and Seredyna-Buda.

Chernihiv – Viacheslav Chaus, head of the Chernihiv Oblast State and Military Administration, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Leonivka and Hirsk.

Odesa – The Russian air force launched a massive attack on the village of Zatoka and the already destroyed Zatoka bridge. Up to 13 cruise missiles hit the village and the disabled span. The missile attack damaged or destroyed 155 buildings in the restive seaside resort town.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
  2. Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.

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Port of Odesa hit by cruise missiles – Russia negotiated grain deal in bad faith – July 23, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,068 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations to permit grain exports from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port, Port of Odesa, and Pivdennyi [South] Port, Kalibr cruise missiles launched by the Russian Black Sea fleet slammed into the Port of Odesa.

Russia and Ukraine did not sign an agreement between the two nations, instead signing separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations, which would permit Ukraine to export up to 20 million tons of grain over the next 120 days. The agreement did not specify that Russia could not attack Ukrainian ports explicitly. However, with continued attacks, civilian port operations with cargo ships entering and exiting will be impossible.

Insurance rates for cargo vessels operating in the Black Sea have already skyrocketed, with over a dozen commercial vessels seized, bombed, or hit by Russian missiles since February 25 and one bulk carrier striking a mine.

Luhansk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military head, reported that Ukraine still controls two settlements in the Luhansk Oblast.

Northeast Donetsk – Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Ivano-Daryivka through Spirne and were unsuccessful.

Russian forces fired artillery at civilians, civilian infrastructure, and Ukrainian military positions in Siversk, Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Spirne. The Russian air force also attacked Sprine.

Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.

Bakhmut – Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group made small advances into the southern part of Pokrovske. Limited fighting occurred near the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant.

Artillery was fired on Bakhmut, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Pokrovske, and Vesela Dolyna.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Vodyane from Vesele.

HIMARS rockets struck an ammunition depot within the machinery plant in Russian-controlled Horlivka, northeast of Donetsk. Secondary explosions thundered across the city as the ammunition stored in the factory started to cook off.

In the south Donbas, there were artillery exchanges from Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Russian state media claims Ukraine attacked the Antonovskiy Bridge for the third time, but there are no photos or videos to support the reports. Russian officials report they will not attempt to repair the bridge. Instead, they plan to build a pontoon bridge to the south. The bridge is reported to be severely damaged and will take too long to repair.

Ukraine, likely using HIMARS rockets, moderately damaged the Russian-controlled Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River. The bridge is a critical water crossing on the 140-kilometer detour route for Russian armor and military supplies after the Antonovskiy Bridge was damaged in attacks earlier this week. Without the crossing, a large region of Russia-controlled Kherson will be cutoff from overland supply routes

Multiple reports are quoting different sources that up to 2,000 Russian troops are partially encircled in Vysokopillya.

Presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych provided additional details during a television interview, which clarified the situation more. Arestovych reported that Russian forces are 75% encircled in Vysokopillya. On July 21, Russian forces attempted a breakout by heading south through the opening in the salient but were pushed back by Ukrainian artillery fire.

Arestovuch reported they are two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) trapped, with an estimated 1,000 troops blocked from leaving the town. He said that Ukraine would not offer a green corridor for evacuation but would likely demand their surrender.

Russian forces captured Oleksandrivka [Kherson] on the banks of the Dnipro River.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed the T-2207 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) south of Davydiv Brid.

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Zaporizhia – A video showed Russian tent barracks on the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar being attacked by kamikaze drones. The tents were located about 300 meters from the reactor blocks. Using a nuclear power plant for barracks and as a firebase to launch artillery and rockets represents a break from accepted military protocol, which considers nuclear power plants “no go” zones. Three Russian soldiers were killed and nine wounded in the attack. Additionally, a Grad Mulitple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which was parked between two cooling towers for the plant, was damaged in the attack. The video and pictures published after the strike show that no part of the nuclear power plant was damaged.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted a ground assault on Udy and there were skirmishes in Tsupivka and Dementiivka.

Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.

Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.

Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis. In Prydonetske, Ukrainian artillery destroyed an entire artillery company, including eight 152mm towed howitzers, ammunition, and command and control. Prydonetske is located east of Izyum in the area Russians call “Sherwood forest.”

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyginsk and Krasnopil were shelled.

Odesa – Four Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Russian Black Sea Fleet targeted the Port of Odesa, with two striking the facility. Serhii Bratchuk, an Odesa Military administration spokesperson, said two missiles hit the port, and Ukraine’s air defense shot down two. The port suffered moderate damage, and a fire broke out, but the missiles missed the grain silos. The attack came less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to provide safe corridors for grain exports. The reaction from officials was swift and furious.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres “unequivocally” condemned the attack through a spokesperson.

“Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “This indicates only one thing: no matter what Russia says and promises, it will find ways how not to fulfill it. Geopolitically, with weapons, bloody or not, but it has several vectors, [this is] how it always acts.”

“That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added on Twitter. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said the bloc “strongly condemns” the attack.

People’s Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko wrote on Telegram, “There is a fire in the port of Odesa. Here is a grain corridor for you. These bastards are signing contracts with one hand and sending missiles with the other.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Nikolenko wrote, “It took less than 24 hours for the Russian Federation to launch a missile strike on the territory of the city of Odesa to question the agreement, and the promises it made to the UN and Turkey in the document signed yesterday in Istanbul.”

“The Russian missile is Vladimir Putin spitting in the face of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, who made a huge effort to reach the deal, and to whom Ukraine is grateful.”

The US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget A. Brink, called the Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa “outrageous,” writing, “Russia strikes the port city of Odesa less than 24 hours after signing an agreement to allow shipments of agricultural exports. The Kremlin continues to weaponize food. Russia must be held to account.”.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Saturday that Russia claimed it had “nothing to do” with the strikes.

“It really concerned us that such an event happened after we signed the deal on grain shipments. We are disturbed as well. But we continue to fulfill our responsibilities about this agreement, and we also expressed in our meetings that we are in favor of the parties to continue their cooperation here calmly and patiently,” said Akar.

Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was hit with up to 13 Russian cruise missiles, causing significant damage, killing three and wounding nine. The attack was a joint operation between the Russian air force and navy, with five Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and eight Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet hitting the region. Cruise missiles also slammed into the railroad facilities at Ukrzaliznytsia. An electrical substation was also targeted, knocking out electrical power in parts of the oblast capital of Kropyvnytskyi.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
  2. Ground offensives by Russian forces have become fewer and smaller a week after the “operational pause” was declared over.
  3. It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.

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