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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Ammunition Depot Destroyed in Nova Kakhovka – July 12, 2022 Ukraine Update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,056 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

There were minimal ground combat operations through Ukraine today as the Russian operational pause continues. There weren’t any new territorial gains or losses that weren’t previously noted.

Luhansk – Russian Federation Armed Forces shelled Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka, indicating the claim from self-proclaimed Assistant Minister of the Interior for the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), Vitaly Kiselev, that both settlements were under Russian control was false. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Head, reported that fighting continued in Bilohorkiva.

Northeast Donetsk – Neither belligerent reported significant fighting along the T-1302 Highway east of Siversk or in the Bakhmut region. Russian forces shelled the settlements of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Serebryanka, Siversk, Sprine, Ivan-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Zvanivka.

Bakhmut – There wasn’t significant fighting near Bakhmut or in the Svitlodarsk bulge.

The search for victims of the Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) attack on Chasiv Yar continued. Ukrainian officials have confirmed that 33 people have died in the Russian attack on two five-story apartment buildings on July 9. The attack on Chasiv Yar is the worst loss of civilian life since the April 8 missile attack at a Kramatorsk railroad station that left 59 dead.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Marinka and were unsuccessful.

Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges and airstrikes from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia oblast. The recently liberated settlement of Mali Shcerbaky in Zaporizhia has been shattered by three months of fighting.

Kherson – Multiple reports indicate that on July 9, Ukrainian forces destroyed a key command post in Russian-controlled Nova Kakhovka using NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) munitions. There are unsubstantiated claims of up to 12 military officers killed between the ranks of Lieutenant Colonel to Major General.

Ukrainian forces destroyed a major ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka on July 11. There were multiple secondary explosions near the hydroelectric plant and dam on the Dnipro River. The rebuke from Russian bloggers and unaffiliated RIA-approved journalists was swift.

Blogger Dimitriyen posted on their Telegram channel, “I often hear people surprised by the inability of the Russian command to adapt to new challenges – high-precision weapons or long-range artillery systems. It is necessary, for example, to disperse the equipment over different forests, move headquarters deep into the territory, and place ammunition in different locations. But that doesn’t happen. Why?”

Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery, rockets, and airstrikes from Oleksandrivka [Mykolaiv] to Osokorivka.

Mykolaiv – At least 20 missiles hit Mykolaiv in the heaviest barrage against the city since the start of the war. There was no immediate information on targets or casualties.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian forces struck the city of Radushne with three cruise missiles. Pro-Russian accounts claim that an ammunition depot was destroyed, but videos from the area did not show any secondary explosions.

Kharkiv – Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian artillery battery and ammunition depot adjacent to the school in Hoptivka, near the Russian border.

Russian SRBMs and MLRS rockets hit Kharkiv and its northern suburbs through the night, leaving five dead and 31 wounded.

Izyum – Russian forces made another piecemeal assault on Krasnopillya, which was unsuccessful. Artillery and rocket fire was limited compared to yesterday, targeting Zakitne, Dolyna, Dibrovne, Mazanivka, Adamivka, and Kurulka.

Daily Assessment

  1. Frustration over the success of NATO-provided 155mm towed and self-propelled artillery, M270 Guided MLRS, and M-142 HIMARS is boiling over in Russian-controlled areas, dividing the online community over how robust Russian military capabilities are.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense is responding to the ongoing losses by targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.
  3. We maintain that Siversk is the most likely location for major fighting in northeastern Donetsk.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 9, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,053 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 8, there was only a minor territorial change related to liberation or capture in Ukraine. There weren’t major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, missile, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. To the west of the oil refinery, Ukrainians mounted a furious counterattack in Verkhnokamyanske and pushed Russian forces back to the Luhansk-Donetsk border.

Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported, “So far, no operational pause announced by the enemy has been observed. [Russia] attacks and bombards our lands with the same intensity as before.”

Northeast Donetsk – Siversk – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged intense artillery fire. Russian forces shelled Zaitseve, Vershyna, Yakolivka, and Ivano-Darivka. The Russian air force attacked Spirne, with Ukrainian forces holding the Russian ground assault at the eastern edge of the settlement.

Bakhmut – No reliable source reported any major offensive or counteroffensive operations around Lyman, Siversk, Soledar, or Bakhmut. Russian forces tried to advance on Hrybhorivka, but the line of conflict remained frozen.

Pro-Russian social media accounts reported Ukrainian forces shelled Klynove, preventing terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion working with Private Military Company Wagner Group from advancing.

The most intense fighting was in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant. Russian forces tried to advance from Dolomitne, Novoluhaske, and Luhanske. They were unsuccessful in all areas.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets hit an ammunition depot just north of Russia-controlled Kadiivka. There have been numerous secondary explosions. The Kirovs’kyi fuel depot, hit by artillery or HIMARS-delivered rockets on July 7, continued to burn. Precision munitions hit another weapons facility in the Kalininskyi District of Donetsk. Secondary explosions indicate the target was an ammunition depot.

Kherson – Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine called for civilians in the occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to evacuate by all possible means.

“We must look for an opportunity to leave because our Armed Forces will [be liberating]. It will be a huge fight. I do not want to scare anyone – everyone understands everything anyway.”

In Kherson city, Explosions and fire from the ammunition depot and heavy weapons field service area Ukraine attacked on July 7, continued. Ukrainian forces destroyed another ammunition depot northeast of the water treatment plant in Kherson, on the border of Chornobaivka. There are multiple secondary explosions.

Russian forces attacked the Ukrainian bridgehead at Velyke Artakove along the Inhulets River and were unsuccessful in driving Ukraine out and could not destroy the wet crossing.

In Nova Kakhovka, Kherson, the Deputy Head of the Nova Kakhovka police, was assassinated by insurgents. Serhii Tomko was shot in his car.

Mykolaiv – In the Mykolaiv Oblast, the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade destroyed five Russian T-80 tanks using Stugnas and captured some of the tank crews.

Kharkiv – Northwest and north of Kharkiv, there were artillery exchanges and skirmishes, with neither belligerent launching offensive operations.

Southeast of Kharkiv, there was renewed fighting by Chuhuiv, with Ukrainian forces shelling the settlement of Hrakove. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) suggested there was fighting in Zaliznychne.

Izyum – Southeast of Izyum, Russian forces attempted to capture Bohorodychne and lost nine Main Battle Tanks (MBT). Multiple geolocated videos visually confirmed the losses. Five Russian tanks blundered into a minefield. The other four were destroyed in an artillery barrage. Additionally, Ukrainian forces recaptured a T-72B MBT that was captured by Russian forces in April.

Russian forces shelled Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Chepil.

South of Kramatorsk, the town of Druzhkivka was hit by Russian cruise missiles.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok again.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, Russian troops are maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas with artillery, rockets, air strikes, and offensive operations along the Luhansk-Donetsk border.
  2. Ukraine is vigorously defending Siversk, indicating that the next battle will likely be for control of the transit hub.
  3. Ukrainian forces continue to dismantle Russian command and control, ammunition, and fuel depots far behind the line of conflict, which is sapping the morale of Pro-Russian civilians who didn’t anticipate combat operations this deep into separatist regions.
  4. Supply interdiction by Ukrainian forces is impacting Russian air defense capabilities in Kherson, where Ukrainian air assets have regained air dominance.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 7, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,051 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 6, there weren’t any territorial changes related to liberation or capture, nor major combat operations by either belligerent across the entire theater. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Donetsk regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko urged the 350,000 civilians still living in the oblast to evacuate the area. Kyrylenko has stressed that fewer civilians will enable combat forces to focus on fighting and be less concerned about collateral damage.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Southwest of Lysychansk, Ukrainian forces topped a Russian advance toward Spirne.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok and may be setting conditions to start an advance from Lyman.

The most intense fighting in Ukraine was in the Svitlodarsk bulge. Russian forces tried to capture Novoluhanske and Luhanske and were not successful. Ukraine also maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. Insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak in an attempt to disrupt Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines)

Kherson – In Kherson, Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot adjacent to the Kherson city train station. Residents reported they could hear small arms fire coming from the direction of Chornobaivka.

Fighting continued near Snihurivka and at the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Inhulets River at Bila Krynytsya-Bilohirka.

Russian forces fired artillery and MLRS in the northern part of Kherson in an attempt to slow the Ukrainian advance. Fighting continued in Arkhanhel’s’ke.

Kharkiv – Russian forces attempted a spoiling attack on Sosnivka and were unsuccessful. Positional fighting near Vesele left the town contested but leaning towards Ukrainian control. Russian forces did airstrikes on Rubizhne [Kharkiv], a no man’s land in northeastern Kharkiv.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrivne, Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Velkya Komyshuvakha. Russian troops made a small advance on Kurulka to test Ukrainian defenses and retreated.

Sumy – The settlements of Myropilska, Krasnopilska, and Khotinska were attacked by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). There were no injuries reported.

Odesa – Ukrainian forces arrived on Snake Island and did a flag-raising. There is no intention of occupying the island at this time. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed a cruise missile fired at Odesa.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Federation Armed Forces entered a theaterwide operational pause, although we cannot determine how long this will last.
  2. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire by Russian forces is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  3. Russian forces appear to be setting conditions to advance on Slovyansk-Kramatorsk when the operational pause ends.
  4. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.
  5. Russian forces continue to struggle in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces continue to make incremental gains and can attack Kherson city.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 6, 2022

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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 19 weeks since the Russia-Ukraine war started and 3,050 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previously announced scaleback of the war in Ukraine, limiting total victory to securing the Donbas, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, as well as securing the land bridge to Crimea, has been pushed aside. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu declared the Russian army will continue the “special military operation” in Ukraine until the tasks set by President Putin are “fully completed.”

Chairman of the Chechen Parliament Magomed Daudov declared a jihad in Ukraine to defend Muslims in Europe during a visit to Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration that the Luhansk oblast had been captured was spoiled less than 24 hours later, with Ukrainian forces contesting the settlement of Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Pro-Russian accounts and the Kremlin reported that “cleansing” was continuing south of Lysychansk to clear the area of remaining Ukrainian troops. There continues to be no evidence that Russian forces captured significant numbers of Ukrainian troops, weapons, or ammunition in Severodonetsk, Zolote-Hirske, or Lysychansk.

There was limited fighting west of Popasna, with Russian forces likely securing the settlement of Spirne.

Northeast Donetsk – Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the terrorist organization Imperial Legion and Russian artillery, captured Klynove, east of Bakhmut.

Russian forces are likely attempting to collapse the Svitlodarsk bulge, launching an offensive toward Vershyna. They were unsuccessful. Fighting continued in Novoluhanske and at the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) recaptured the settlement of Novobakhmutivka, southwest of Horlivka.

Northeast of Donetsk city, a video from Russian state media showed that Ukrainian forces collapsed a small Russian-controlled salient south of Pisky and are in control of the Russian defensive positions.

In Donetsk city, a Russian ammunition depot stored in a heavy truck dealership was destroyed by a Ukrainian artillery strike. There were multiple secondary explosions. Ukrainian forces also destroyed a large ammunition depot near the railroad station in Donetsk, with multiple secondary explosions after the strike.

There were reports of fresh explosions in the port of Berdyansk. Russian and Ukrainian officials have stated this is related to unstable munitions exploding during an attempted recovery of the Large Landing Ship (LLS) Saratov, which sank on March 24. The Saratov was hit by a Tochka-U missile which damaged two more LLS vessels and heavily damaged a cargo ship.

In Zaporizhia, Ukrainian forces continue to advance on Polohy. Fighting and artillery strikes were reported in Novopokrovka.

Kherson – The Ukrainian counteroffensive continued in Kherson, with significant gains made. Ukrainian forces liberated Myrne, northwest of Kherson. Russian forces suffered significant losses near Tomyna Balka from artillery fire and air strikes.

Satellite images from July 5 show the airport and Russian base at Chornobaivka suffered heavy damage after two ammunition depots were destroyed days apart. The Russian base appeared abandoned.

Multiple videos showed fighting and artillery exchanges on the northern edge of Snihurivka, with Ukrainian forces 3 kilometers north of the city limits. The Ukrainian air force also attacked Russian defensive positions.

Ukrainian forces reestablished a wet crossing over the Inhulets River near Velke Artakove and Bila Krynytsya. The settlements of Lozove and Bilohirka are under Ukrainian control. Pro-Russian accounts reported that Ukrainian forces had pushed to Sukhyi Stavok, almost 10 kilometers south. There were reports of renewed fighting in Davydiv Brid. A Russian ammunition depot in Velkya Oleksandrivka was destroyed.

In the north region of the Kherson oblast, Ukrainian forces collapsed the Vysokopillya salient, liberating the settlement of Olhyne. Intense fighting in Arkhanhelske continued, with a Russian ammunition depot destroyed on July 5. Ukrainian forces fired artillery at Russian troops retreating from Olhyne, northeast of Novopetrivka.

Mykolaiv – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the city of Mykolaiv.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched attacks in three directions from the stronghold in Kozacha Lopan on the settlements of Sosnivka, Prudyanka, and Dementiivka. None of the attacks were successful.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Krasnopillya and suffered heavy losses. Ukrainian artillery hit Russian positions in Dovhenke and Sosnove, destroying Main Battle Tanks (MBT), Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV), and support vehicles. Russian forces also attempted to advance southeast of Velyka Komyshuvahka and suffered significant losses.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Chernihiv – Russian forces shelled and used MLRS on the border villages of Mkhy and Bleshnia in the northern region of Chernihiv.

Sumy – Russian helicopters fired rockets at the Esman in the Sumy oblast.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukrainian air defenses intercepted three Russian cruise missiles near Odesa.

Western Ukraine – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the Yarmolyntsi in the Khmelnytskyi oblast.

Daily Assessment

  1. Phase 2 of the Russia-Ukraine War is over.
  2. Russian ground forces in eastern Ukraine appear to be in an operational pause.
  3. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire in the northeastern region of the Donetsk oblast is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  4. Russian forces are struggling in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces are making steady territorial gains from the north, the west, and the southeast.
  5. Russia’s reset of its operational goals in Ukraine will be impossible to achieve without a formal declaration of war and full mobilization.
  6. The Kremlin is likely hoping to wear down western support by extending the war and capitalize on a looming leadership change in the United Kingdom and politically driven unrest in the United States, which closely resembles the start of “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland.
  7. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 5, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,049 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory after the Russian Federation Armed Forces secured the region 131 days after the widescale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin told Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shogui that the units in Luhansk “should rescue [and] increase their combat capabilities.”

It took 100 days for Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed militias to secure the last 7% of the Luhansk Oblast. The Russian military will likely start to work to establish administrative control of Severodoentsk and Lysychansk. The cities of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna had a combined pre-war population of 293,500. It is estimated that 18,500 civilians remain, with the rest fleeing the area – some into Russia and others into Ukraine. Most of those who stayed behind supported the Russian invasion or were poor, disabled, or didn’t want to leave their homes.

Northeast Donetsk – In the Siversk region, Russian forces have advanced over the T-1302 Highway and taken partial control of Spirne.

Widescale artillery barrages occurred through the region, including Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and Verkhonkamyanska. Other settlements shelled include Ivano-Daryivka and Berestove.

NASA FIRMS data suggest that the town of Raihorodok has been shelled.

In the Bakhmut-Soledar region, the settlements of Pokrovske and Soledar were shelled.

Fighting continued In the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhlehar Power Plant and Russian forces shelling Kodema. Russian forces are attempting to take control of Novoluhanske, southeast of the power plant and on the reservoir’s western shore.

Based on this intelligence, we maintain that Dolomitne is contested, and we are coding Novoluhanske as contested.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – There were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. There were reports of fighting near Rivnopil, but we could not verify the veracity of the reports.

We consider Bilohirya, Luhivske, Novopokrovka, Bahate, and Ukraniske, Rivnopil, Pyatkhatky, and Stepove [Zaporizhia] as contested.

Kherson – Russian forces continue to take a defensive posture and are attempting to slow the broad advance of Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces are attempting to interdict Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines) and firing artillery, Grad, and Smerch rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

Russian forces shelled Myrne northwest of Kherson, which would indicate the settlement is contested. There are reports that Pravdyne was liberated, and Myrne and Parysheve are contested. We cannot verify the veracity of these reports. However, the report of Myrne being shelled supports the settlement is contested.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Shyroka Balka, Sofiivka, and Krytyi Yar.

In the northern region of Kherson, Topolyne, Ivanivka, Knyazivka, Potomkyne, Dobryanka, Trudolyubivka, and Osokorivka were shelled by Russian forces.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Sukhyi Stavok, Lozove, Davydiv Brid, Velkya Oleksandrivka, and Novopetrivka.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces are in Lozove. We cannot confirm the veracity of these reports. There was a drone video that showed Russian troops being killed by small arms fire. The distance from the Inhulets River was over 700 meters. There may be Ukrainian Special Operation Forces on the east side of the river, but we don’t believe this indicates there is a more significant force in the immediate area.

Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters fired on Zarichne and Olhyne. On July 3, there was evidence of significant fighting in Olhyne, and we have coded the settlement as contested based on this intelligence update. If Ukrainian forces liberate Olhyne, it will represent the full collapse of the Vysokopillya salient.

Mykolaiv – The settlements of Lupareve, Shevchenkove, Chervona Dolyna, Kobzartsi, Partyzanske, and Bereznehuvate were shelled. There were no reports of cruise missile attacks.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces did reconnaissance in force toward Kozacha Lopan from Sosnivka, likely to harass Russian positions. There were no other offensive operations in the area. There was scattered artillery fire along the rest of the line of conflict.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Mazanivka. In Dolyna, they were unsuccessful, and in Mazanivka, they moved the line of conflict to the settlement’s northern border. Russian forces attempted to advance on Virnopillya and suffered heavy losses, including eight armored vehicles.

Sumy – Russian forces continue firing at settlements across the international border in the Sumy oblast. A school was destroyed in Esman, and public utility infrastructure was destroyed in Nova Sloboda. Bilopillia was hit with at least 25 mortar shells and five missiles, injuring two people.

Chernihiv – Russian troops fired across the international border at the settlements of Mkhy and Zalizniy Mist. There were no reports of injuries or significant damage.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Ukrainian flag was dropped on Snake Island, symbolically taking control of the strategically important dot in the Black Sea.

Daily Assessment

  1. President Putin’s declaration of “rest” is not a charitable order from a benevolent leader but a tacit admission that Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed separatists of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics have exhausted their combat strength and need to reconstitute.
  2. Russian forces continue to be pressured in the Kherson oblast and struggle to hold the line of conflict.
  3. Germany announced they are providing Ukraine with four additional M270 HIMARS systems and upgraded the software to work with the Ukrainian fire control systems.
  4. Ukrainian forces are using NATO-provided guided munitions fired from HIMARS to destroy multiple military targets a day.
  5. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 3, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,047 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from Lysychansk after the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and Pryvillia were captured. With the Lysychansk-Bakhmut T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) severed and the Sivesk-Lysychansk GLOC under pressure, The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided the risk of encirclement had become too great. Additionally, Russian forces unleashed the largest artillery barrage since the collapse of the Zolote-Hirske salient. Luhansk Regional Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai confirmed the withdrawal.

Russian state media showed Russian and Chechen forces in the center of Lysychansk and the southern regions on the plateau. It is estimated that up to 10,000 civilians remain in the city once home to 95,000.

There weren’t indications of large numbers of Ukrainian troops being captured or the abandonment of significant quantities of heavy weapons.

Ukrainian forces fell back to preprepared defensive positions in Siversk. Due to the ongoing Ukrainian withdrawal, the renewed line of conflict is very difficult to define.

Russian forces attempted a reconnaissance in force advance into Berestove but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, Siversk, Serberianka, Hryhorivka, Bilhorivka [Donetsk], and Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – Southeast of Bakhmut, Russian forces shelled the electrical service transformer farm at Vesela Dolyna. Sentinel-2 L2A imagery showed a massive fire at the center of the facility.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – Russia-backed separatists of the Donetsk People’s Republic 1st Army attempted an advance on Novomykhalivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot in the city of Yasynuvata near Donetsk.

In the Russia-controlled port city of Berdyansk, salvage engineers raised the Large Landing Ship (LLS), Saratov, from the bottom of the harbor. The Saratov was sunk on March 24 during a Ukrainian cruise missile attack, damaging two additional LLS and severely damaging a civilian cargo ship.

Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian airbase in the occupied town of Melitopol with 12 rockets fired from NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), striking defensives and two logistic warehouses. Additionally, a freight train traveling between Crimea and Melitopol was attacked by insurgents. Insurgents also derailed a Russian armored train.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces shelled the Russian-controlled airport at Chornobaivka, destroying an ammunition depot. The settlement of Pervomaiske suffered intense shelling by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement of Ivanivka and Zarichne [Kherson] and are attacking Russian positions in Arkhanhelske on the east bank of the Inhulets River. Russian forces have suffered significant losses.

To replace equipment losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense is transferring 40 to 67 tanks from Zaporizhia to Kherson.

Mykolaiv – Up to 12 Russian Onyx cruise missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv. The missiles targeted the port and grain storage.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile struck the city of Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, destroying a factory.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with Iskander-M Short Range Ballistic Missiles SRBM), with several strikes in the city and the suburbs of Cherkaska Lozova and Derhachi.

Izyum – Slovyansk – Russian forces made another ad hoc advance on Bohorodychne, which was unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are using HIMARS to interdict Russian GLOC into and south of Izyum, significantly impacting the ability to resupply and support Russian forces on the line of conflict. Ukrainian forces reestablished the wet crossing southeast of Chepil.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Russian Su-30 aircraft fired a Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missile into the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, striking another hotel.

The Ukrainian air force bombed Snake Island’s remaining Russian military assets, destroying a Tornado Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and three other support vehicles on the pier.

Russian Federation – Missile debris from a failed Iskander-M launch or possibly from a Russian antiaircraft missile fell onto the city of Belgorod, Russia. Local authorities reported dozens of homes were damaged, and three civilians were killed. The Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of firing a Tochka-U missile armed with cluster munitions on Kursk, but later retracted the accusation and claimed it shot down three Ukrainian missiles.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense has put intense pressure on its commanders in Ukraine to complete the capture of the Luhansk oblast, and it is unlikely they will have an operational pause.
  2. Russia will continue to focus on securing the Luhansk Oblast at all costs.
  3. NATO-provided HIMARS is already having a significant impact on combat operations for Ukraine.
  4. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  5. Russian forces’ defensive capabilities in Kherson are increasingly degraded as they deploy 360-degree perimeter defenses in the settlements they still control.
  6. Supply interdiction west and northwest of Izyum is impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities toward Slovyansk.

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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 28, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine – MTN It has been 3,042 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-22 land-to-sea cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers at Kremenchuk, Poltava. Both missiles struck the Amstor Mall at 3:52 PM local time, with over 1,000 civilians inside. On Wednesday morning Ukrainian officials reported that 20 were dead, 59 were wounded, and 36 were still missing. Monday’s attack is the worst since Russia destroyed the railroad station in Kramatorsk on April 8 with cluster munitions delivered by Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM).

Lysychansk-Severodonetsk – Russian forces are holding a line that extends from Bila Hora to the southwestern corner of the rubber factory on the edge of Lysychansk. The line continues southwest to the gelatin factory, where fighting has been ongoing for four days.

Russian forces control most of Vovchoyarivka, with intense fighting continuing to control the settlement’s northern part. Russian forces have reached the southeastern edge of the abandoned Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery, which is adjacent to the T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line).

Bakhmut – Slovyansk – East of Bakhmut and north to the Popasna advance, Russian forces continue to try and take full control of the T-1302 Highway GLOC. Russian forces attempted to advance toward Klynove and Pokrovske but were unsuccessful. Russian forces likely reached the eastern edge of Klynove in heavy fighting but were pushed back to Midna Ruda. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Yakolivka but were unsuccessful.

Russian forces shelled Soledar, Bilohirivka [Donetsk], Berestove, Mykolaivka, Vesele [Dontesk, 48°44’38.5″N 38°08’56.5″E], and Spirne. Shelling of Berestove and Spirne was particularly fierce. Both settlements are west of the T-1302 Highway.

Two Russian ammunition depots south and east of Zymohirya [Luhansk] were attacked by NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) missiles. A coal mine was the closest target, 70 kilometers east of Bakhmut.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, there were indications that Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions in Semhirya, Dolomitne, and Myronivskyi.

South Donbas and Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russian forces attempted an offensive against Ukrainian forces in Shevchenko [Donetsk 47°43’45.5″N 37°08’29.4″E] and were unsuccessful. With reports of further advances, Ukrainian forces continue to hold recent territorial gains.

Kherson and Mykolaiv – In Kherson, the Ukrainian counteroffensive continued. Ukrainian troops advanced from Soldatske to the western edge of Myrolyubivka. Russian and Ukrainian forces continued intense fighting to control Stanislav, Kyselivka, and Snihurivka. The United States Department of Defense and Ukrainian officials have hinted that “several” settlements were liberated between June 25 – 26 in the Kherson Oblast but have requested that the details be temporarily withheld to support Operational Security (OPSEC).

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched an offensive to recapture Dementiivka, but they were unsuccessful. Skirmishes continued near Velyki Prokhody, Vesele [Kharkiv 50°10’26.3″N 36°31’59.5″E], and Rubizhne [Kharkiv]. Satellite data indicated that Ukrainian forces remain on the east bank of the Pechenihy Reservoir near Khotimlya.

Southeast of Chuhuiv, fighting continues along the M-03 and M-07 highways. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to request to honor OPSEC in this region. We will only share open-source intelligence in today’s report. Sattelite data indicated fighting in Russian-controlled Nova Hnylytsya.

Izyum – On the Izyum axis, Russian forces shelled Mospanove but made no advances on the settlement. Russian forces attacked Dovhalivka and Zalyman from Savyntsi, suffered significant losses, and were forced back. We have also been requested to honor OPSEC in this region and will only share information available through open-source intelligence.

Sattelite data indicated intense fighting north, northeast, and north of Spivakivka, almost to Prydonetske. Sattelite images also confirmed the destruction of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army command post in Izyum and the adjacent fuel depot.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Mazanivka from Dovehenke and were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Dolyna and Bohorodychne. Ukrainian artillery interdicted the GLOC from Oskil to Sosnove with artillery.

Other Key Developments – Kremlin-backed hacker group Killnet launched a widescale DDoS cyberattack on Lithuania, disabling key websites and computer systems. Killnet says they will continue to attack the Baltic nation until trade restrictions to Kalinigrad are lifted.

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