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Washington is on the other side of the fifth wave – local and national update for September 28, 2021

Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.

[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) New cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all declined, providing the clearest evidence yet that Washington state is coming out of the fifth wave. Even the beleaguered South Central Hospital Region reported significant improvement.

Pfizer submitted its data from the Phase 3 vaccination trial of 5 to 11-year-olds to the FDA. Experts are hopeful that with approval, vaccination could begin in November.

Alaska and Idaho continue to operate under crisis standards of care. The situation in District 1 Idaho has deteriorated to the point the Gem State has more ICU patients than Washington.

In misinformation, we tackle the questions, “what about Israel?”

This update uses the latest data from the Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH), released on September 28, 2021.


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Washington State Update for September 28, 2021

Washington state COVID update

Data points to another plateau, following the pattern of the last three weeks. In the South Central Hospital Region, which includes Benton, Franklin, Klickitat, Walla Walla, and Yakima counties, the 14 day moving average for new cases is 764.3 per 100K, the lowest it has been in three weeks. The Central Hospital Region, which represents King County, is 254.1.

Percent of Total Population Fully VaccinatedAverage 14-Day New Case Rate (unadjusted)
60.00% or above (3)177.6
50.00% to 59.99% (12 counties)523.8 (down)
40.00% to 49.99% (15 counties)689.9 (down)
28.40% to 39.99% (9 counties)736.3 (down)
14-Day New COVID Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Not Adjusted for Population

Through September 27, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 441.7 COVID cases per 100K, the first time the rate has been below 450 since late August. Counties in the 1,000.0 to 1,399.9 range include Lincoln (1,104.1) and Stevens (1,036.6). Counties in the 800.0 to 999.9 per 100K range include Adams, Franklin, Garfield, Grant, Grays Harbor, Okanogan, and Pend Oreille. Franklin reported 982.8, just under the 1,000 threshold.

New cases were down for individuals under 65 years old. Hospitalizations for pediatric patients from birth to 11 dropped significantly while increasing for geriatric patients over 79.

Age Group7-Day Case Rate7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11210.4 (down)0.4 (down)
Ages 12-19224.2 (down)1.6
Ages 20-34220.1 (down)5.8
Ages 35-49214.3 (down)10.1
Ages 50-64150.3 (down)14.6
Ages 65-79109.619.3
Ages 80+114.135.5 (up)
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group

The USA Today COVID Tracker reported 34 deaths on Monday. The state of Washington is not reporting the percentage of positive cases.

Spokane Fire Fighters go door-to-door to bring vaccination to rural areas

It’s almost hard to imagine now, but there was once an intense demand for the COVID-19 vaccine.

In northeast Washington, the desire for doses exceeded the capacity of the local health care system.

Thus, the Northeast Tri-County Health District needed a boost to its efforts to vaccinate people against COVID-19 earlier this year.

“We realized that as much as we were trying to do, it was not going to keep up with the demand within our communities for vaccine availability,” said Matt Schanz, administrator of the Northeast Tri-County Health District.

It found help in local fire departments. The Spokane Fire Department delivered almost 16,000 doses through the federally backed program.

Western Washington University vaccination rates are high as October 18 deadline looms

Western Washington University reported in its Monday newsletter that 96% of registered students are fully vaccinated. Also, 92% of WWU’s employees report they are fully vaccinated. Western’s permanent employees, who make up more than 75% of the staff, have reached a verified 95% vaccination rate.

Travel Advisories

We recommend avoiding recreational travel to Spokane, Yakima, Klickitat, Benton, Franklin, and Walla Walla counties. If the number of new cases in the South Central Hospital Region continues to decline, we will likely lift our advisory for this region in the next 6 to 13 days. We strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, and Montana. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care if you experience a medical emergency.

Thank you

Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!

In August, King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin mentioned the N95 Project as a trusted source for N95 masks. A check on the website showed that a 50 count box of United States manufactured N95 masks are available for $40.00. We recommend wearing N95 masks indoors as they provide the best protection against COVID when properly fitted.

No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks

Vaccination

Pfizer submits Phase 3 5 to 11 year old vaccination trial findings to the FDA

Pfizer has submitted research to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on the effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine in children, but the shots may not be available until November.

The company said Tuesday it provided health regulators with data from a recent study of its vaccine in children 5 to 11 years old. Officials had previously stated they would apply with the FDA to authorize use in the coming weeks.

Once the company files its application, U.S. regulators and public health officials will review the evidence and consult with their advisory committees in public meetings to determine if the shots are safe and effective enough to recommend use.

Pfizer vaccine booster shots are now available

Booster shots for eligible individuals are now available statewide. Individuals who received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine more than 6 months ago, are 65 or older, or are immunocompromised can receive their third dose immediately.

In the Kirland-Bellevue-Woodinville area, Walgreens, Rite-Aid, Bartell’s, and QFC are offering booster shots. Additionally, the third dose is available at the CVS located within the Target store at 17,700 NE 76th Street in Redmond.

Most locations require an appointment, which can be scheduled online.

King County, Washington is reporting over 86.2% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

Malcontent News

Hospital Status

According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 20.1% of all acute care patients hospitalized in Washington have COVID. A hospital system caring for this many COVID-positive patients in acute care is considered to be under “severe stress.” ICUs are at 89.1% of capacity statewide, with 31.1% of ICU patients fighting COVID. Hospitalizations continue to trend downward.

The 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients was down to 149, which is statistically unchanged from yesterday. The Department of Health reported 1,308 COVID patients statewide on September 27 and 218 on ventilators. Total hospitalizations are down 13.5% in the last 7 days.

Back to School

School DistrictStatusLess than 10 Active Cases10 or More Active Cases
BellevueGREEN– Bellevue (1)
– Eastgate (1)
– Enatai (4)
– Sherwood Forest (7)
None
Lake WashingtonYELLOW– Alcott Elementary (1*)
– Barton Elementary (1*)
– Dickinson/Explorer Elementary (2*)
– Ella Baker Elementary (3*)
– Eastlake High (1*)
– Evergreen Middle School (1*)
– Franklin Elementary (2*)
– Finn Hill Middle School (1*)
– ICS (1*)
– Inglewood Middle School (2*)
– Juanita Elementary (1*)
– Kamiakin Middle School (3*)
– Keller Elementary (2*)
– Kirkland Middle School (1*)
– Lake Washington High (1*)
– Lakeview Elementary (3*)
– Muir Elementary (1*)
– Redmond Middle School (1*)
– Redmond High School (1*)
– Renaissance Middle School (1*)
– Rush Elementary (2*)

NorthshoreRED– Arrowhead Elementary (21)
– Canyon Creek Elementary (23)
– Canyon Park Middle School (11**)
– Cottage Lake Elementary (15)
– Crystal Springs Elementary (55**)
– East Ridge Elementary (26)
– Fernwood Elementary (13**)
– Frank Love Elementary (32)
– Hollywood Hills Elementary (20)
– Inglemoor High School (8)
– Innovation Lab High School (11)
– Kenmore Elementary (11)
– Kenmore Middle School (45**)
– Kokanee Elementary (61)
– Leota Middle School (5)
– Lockwood Elementary (21)
– Maywood Hills Elementary (19**)
– Moorlands Elementary (38)
– North Creek High School (26**)
– Northshore Middle School (13**)
– Ruby Bridges Elementary (9)
– Secondary Academy for Success (11)
– Shelton View Elementary (18**)
– Skyview Middle School (75**)
– Sunrise Elementary (25)
– Timbercrest Middle School (45**)
– Wellington Elementary (76)
– Westhill Elementary (26)
– Woodin Elementary (19**)
– Woodinville High School (19)
– Woodmoor Elementary (21**)
– Bothell High School (13*/120)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases

We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than 10 active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.

Little has changed from yesterday in the area schools. Northshore School District has 127 students with confirmed COVID cases and another 782 in quarantine.

We recommend that parents in the Bellevue and Lake Washington School District request better transparency on their publicly facing COVID dashboards.

Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville

No update

National Round-Up

Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker is reporting 185,088 new cases and 2,394 deaths nationwide. These numbers would include weekend data.

Alaska

Anchorage’s public health division manager has resigned, leaving the post temporarily empty as an ongoing COVID-19 surge triggers record-level infections and strains the city’s short-staffed hospitals.

According to an Anchorage Health Department spokesperson, Christy Lawton resigned Monday from the position she’d held since February 2019. Municipal officials declined to provide any additional details, citing confidentiality concerns.

“I’m proud of the work that myself and the team at AHD accomplished and have deep admiration for all the public health professionals in our community who have worked tirelessly throughout this pandemic,” Lawton wrote. “I strongly encourage our city’s residents to set aside politics and focus on what it’s going to take to truly get back to ‘normal.’ That means more of us getting vaccinated and continuing diligent mitigation measures in the meantime. We are not safe until the majority of us are protected.”

Maybe she was motivated to quit after Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson attacked some of the city’s hospitals for requiring vaccines. Following the state’s announcement last week that Alaska is activating crisis standards of care for hospitals statewide, Bronson thanked the governor for “taking practical action to get our hospitals the help they need.”

The mayor has long opposed COVID-19 restrictions and mask mandates and earlier this month said he “will not comply” with President Joe Biden’s vaccine mandate.

Last weekend, the mayor and members of his administration attended an hours-long, invitation-only meeting in the Assembly chambers where a group of health care workers and other residents spoke in opposition to vaccine requirements.

Hospitals in Alaska are treating 215 COVID patients as the 7 day moving average for new cases climbed to the stratosphere – 1,225 cases per 100,000K people. Put another way, 1 in 86 Alaskan residents were confirmed to have COVID in the last 7 days. Almost 3 out of 4 new cases are among people under 50 years old.

There are 18 ICU beds available statewide, unchanged from yesterday. Of the 112 patients in the ICU (COVID and non-COVID combined), a staggering 71% are on ventilators.

Idaho

As people die at home and in hospital waiting areas and bodies are placed in railroad cars, Idaho Governor Brad Little and Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin run their own version of the Hunger Games while ruling over District 1.

Lt. Governor McGeachin is running against Governor Little, forcing the conservative governor to take distasteful actions to placate an ultra-conservative base. Governor Little said he was “exploring legal action to protect the rights of business owners and their employees” from “President Joe Biden’s plan to fine private employers with 100 or more employees that do not mandate the COVID-19 vaccine or routine testing.”

Voters from all sides are unhappy. Today a woman named “Gloria” spoke with the governor and blasted him along with the unvaccinated.

The surge in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations forced the expansion of crisis standards of care statewide. Overburdened by too many sick people and too few staffed beds, several Idaho medical facilities have moved to cancel or postpone all non-emergency surgeries, like the one Gloria needs for her damaged hip.

“I am laying here in pain, and I can’t get an operation to get it fixed because you’re holding these hospitals open for all of these unvaccinated,  selfish, ignorant people who wouldn’t get a shot,” she said. 

Is that fair? she demanded to know. 

No, Little told her. It’s not.

“It’s not fair at all, and I feel sorry for you,” he said.

The number of ICU patients in Idaho surged to 252 – in a state with 170 ICU beds.

New models indicate that a peak in hospitalizations may not come until late November. If the model of 1,900 COVID patients in Idaho becomes a reality, it would almost equal the number of COVID patients in Washington and Idaho combined. The 40 COVID-related deaths reported today are more than in Washington state.

May the odds ever be in your favor.

Montana

The hospital in Helena continues to operate in crisis standards of care, while hospitals in Bozeman, Missoula, and Billings are running right to the very edge of contingency care. Unlike Idaho, where hospitals are being forced to stand on their own, Montana is working to load level, as the rural state struggles to care for 427 COVID patients.

St. James Healthcare in Butte has come to help. The hospital has accepted several COVID patients from outside the county, in addition to their Butte-Silver Bow County patients.

“As the regional referral center in southwest Montana, St. James has always supported our surrounding communities,” wrote a spokesperson from St. James. “At this time, we can help our neighboring hospitals throughout the state by accepting patient transfers, if requested.”

The numbers are beginning to add up. Less than two weeks ago, the COVID hospitalizations at St. James totaled nine. As of Tuesday, that number has more than doubled to 19.

St. James will continue to make its best efforts to house patients.

The hospital in Butte isn’t as strained due to the 64% vaccination rate in the Butte-Silver Bow County area.

Oregon

The number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 across Oregon is 822, which is 44 fewer than Monday. There are 237 COVID-19 patients in intensive care unit (ICU) beds, six fewer than Monday.

There are 53 available adult ICU beds out of 645 total (8% availability) and 341 available adult non-ICU beds out of 4,238 (8% availability). The state reported 41 deaths.

There have been at least 49 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 tied to the annual rodeo, which attracted thousands of people to a rural corner of Oregon. Most of the cases were reported in Umatilla County, Wallowa County, and southeastern Washington.

Brown had said she would not attend the event, which she enjoys, due to her concerns about community spread.

Joe Fiumara, Umatilla County’s public health director, said some people who attended the rodeo were sick but chose to go anyway.

Misinformation

“Look at Israel.” This is a common refrain from people who claim that vaccinations don’t work. They cite Israel’s high vaccination rate and the hospitalization rate among the vaccinated population. We wrote about the data fallacy that happens when looking at percentages for new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths when evaluating vaccination performance. Let’s pull these claims apart.

Israel is highly vaccinated. In April 2021, that statement is correct. Israel was the global leader in vaccination. By the time Delta surged in Israel, the nation had dropped to 32nd place. Today Israel is tied with Saudia Arabia and Germany in 21st place, with 67% of the population with at least one dose, narrowly ahead of the United States and behind Sweden. Globally, there are 17 nations with a vaccination rate of 70% or higher.

The United Arab Emirates, where 84% of the population is fully vaccinated, has a population similar to Michigan. The Middle East nation is reporting under 300 new COVID cases a day. The country never had a significant Delta surge.

For our analysis, we went straight to the source – The Israel Ministry of Health COVID website and its COVID Control Panel.

Israel vaccination rate from June 30 to September 23, 2021

The first graphic shows the vaccination rate in Israel stalled out and barely changed over three months. The booster shot program started on July 30, 2021, and about half of the previously vaccinated residents had received the first dose by the end of September.

Severely ill patients over 60 years old by immunization status previous 90 days

The next chart shows the impact of the Delta wave as it rolled through Israel. The number of severely ill patients, defined differently than the United States, rises quickly among the unvaccinated, representing only 33% to 36% of the population, depending on the time within the surge.

The number of severely ill patients also increases at just 25% of the peak level among the unvaccinated, despite representing 64% to 67% of the population. Finally, the number of severely ill patients over the last 3 months is negligible among residents who received a booster shot.

We know that most breakthrough cases are among people over 65 years old. Israeli doctors found the same situation.

Around half of the country’s 600 patients presently hospitalized with severe illness (August 20, 2021) have received two doses of the Pfizer Inc shot, a rare occurrence out of 5.4 million fully vaccinated people.

The majority of these patients received two vaccine doses at least five months ago, are over the age of 60, and also have chronic illnesses known to exacerbate a coronavirus infection. They range from diabetes to heart disease and lung ailments, as well as cancers and inflammatory diseases that are treated with immune-system suppressing drugs, according to Reuters interviews with 11 doctors, health specialists, and officials.

Deaths by immunization status in Israel, last 90 days, under 60 years old

What about those under 60 years old? The overall rate of death among those under 60 is almost negligible. Unvaccinated residents have a slightly higher occurrence versus those who receive two doses. Once again, the unvaccinated group represents a much smaller number of people, about 3.3 million, versus the vaccinated group of 6.5 million. There is one more thing in this graph, in the last 90 days, the total number of deaths among residents under 60 who received a booster shot is 3.

Current hospitalizations “seriously” ill patients in Israel by age and vaccination status

The last chart shows the current situation among “seriously ill” patients in Israel. The majority of the 660 hospitalized patients are under 70 years old, and a vast majority are unvaccinated. It isn’t until you get to 80 and above that, the number of breakthrough cases comes close to the number of unvaccinated patients.

Of the 660 seriously ill patients, 285 are in the ICU, and 227 are on respirators, and the chart above shows, a vast majority are unvaccinated.

The argument that the vaccine didn’t work in Israel is a data fallacy. The vaccine is highly effective at preventing severe COVID and death, even when facing the Delta variant and an aged population. In the last 90 days, based on data from Israel, only 3 people who received booster shots died from COVID.

Nurses threatened at Harborview – local and national update for September 27, 2021

Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.

[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) Cases moved upward while hospitalizations declined in Washington state. The number of COVID positive students in the Bellevue School District dropped significantly, while cases and quarantines expanded in Northshore, particularly at Bothell High School.

The rollout of additional monoclonal antibody clinics in Washington remains hobbled due to a tight supply and ongoing negotiations with potential locations.

Over 4,000 people joined Turning Point USA and former Washington state representative Matt Shea for a “medical freedom” rally in Spokane. An anti-vaccination rally is planned for September 30 at Swedish Hospital and Harborview Medical Center. At Harborview, staff spoke out over the weekend about getting threats from family members of COVID patients.

A 38-year old Washington State Trooper died of COVID over the weekend, leaving behind a wife and two children.

Vaccination rates in Washington climbed again but appeared to be slowing in many counties. The number of vaccinated adolescents in the Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville area increased dramatically last week.

Alaska and Idaho continue to operate under crisis standards of care. Help came to Montana in the form of the Veteran’s Administration opening its doors to non-veteran patients. We’ve added Wyoming to a state we’re tracking and consider it at risk of expanding crisis standards of care.

This update uses the latest data from the Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH), released on September 27, 2021.


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Washington State Update for September 27, 2021

Washington state COVID update

Data points to another plateau, following the pattern of the last three weeks. In the South Central Hospital Region, which includes Benton, Franklin, Klickitat, Walla Walla, and Yakima counties, the 14 day moving average for new cases is 797.4 per 100K, statistically unchanged from Friday. The Central Hospital Region, which represents King County, is 275.3, a slight increase. We have broken out the counties that have 60% or more of their residents vaccinated. The new case rate is 416% higher in counties that are under 40% vaccinated.

Percent of Total Population Fully VaccinatedAverage 14-Day New Case Rate (unadjusted)
60.00% or above (3)182.6
50.00% to 59.99% (12 counties)560.7
40.00% to 49.99% (15 counties)730.6 (up)
28.40% to 39.99% (9 counties)760.5
14-Day New COVID Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Not Adjusted for Population

Through September 26, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 463.9 COVID cases per 100K, indicating newly detected cases jumped over the weekend. Counties in the 1,000.0 to 1,399.9 range include Lincoln (1,257.9), Franklin (1.056,5), Okanogan (1,066.5), and Stevens (1,104.1). Counties in the 800.0 to 999.9 per 100K range include Adams, Asotin, Garfield, Grant, and Pend Oreille. Adams reported 978.0, and Grant reported 976.7 per 100K, putting the two counties just under the 1,000 threshold.

New cases were up in every age group, while hospitalizations were down for pediatric and geriatric patients.

Age Group7-Day Case Rate7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11231.9 (up)0.7 (down)
Ages 12-19245.8 (up)1.7
Ages 20-34234.3 (up)5.4
Ages 35-49231.7 (up)10.1
Ages 50-64160.8 (up)14.4
Ages 65-79115.6 (up)19.5 (down)
Ages 80+118.1 (up)31.5 (down)
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group

The USA Today COVID Tracker did not provide a number for reported deaths in Washington state. The state of Washington is not reporting the percentage of positive cases.

Expansion of monoclonal antibody treatment clinics in Washington remains stalled out

We reported last week that Washington state was dealing with a restricted supply of monoclonal antibodies, and the situation hasn’t improved in the previous week. Cassie Sauer, CEO of the Washington State Hospital Association (WSHA), fielded a question during today’s briefing.

She said that the state was still working to identify partners that could provide the early stage COVID treatment outside of a hospital or urgent care setting.

Monoclonal antibodies are lab-engineered immune system proteins developed using similar processes as the FDA-approved mRNA Pfizer vaccine. For COVID-positive patients with mild symptoms and who don’t require supplemental oxygen, the therapy has shown to be highly effective in triggering a strong immune response. However, the treatment is not recommended for symptomatic cases that have lasted more than a week with worsening symptoms.

They are not an effective treatment for people who have been symptomatic for more than a week, have moderate or severe symptoms, or require oxygen therapy. Ms. Sauer said that some people were using the treatment as a “get out of jail free card” versus getting vaccinated.

Anti-vaccination protests planned at Swedish Hospital and Harborview Medical Center

Waking up Washington plans a “Seattle March for Healthcare Workers Against COVID Mandates” for September 30. The group announced they would march through Seattle from Swedish Hospital to Harborview Medical Center during the lunch hour.

Vaccination rates for doctors and nurses are high nationwide, with 97% doctors and 88% of nurses fully vaccinated. So far, hospital systems that have mandated vaccinations have seen very little attrition among the highest skilled workers.

Staff threatened at Harborview Medical Center over COVID treatment and mask wear

KING 5 reported over the weekend that family members of COVID patients were verbally and physically assaulting nurses at Harborview Medical Center.

“At first, there was a feeling of camaraderie and people really applauding health care workers,” said Sam Conley, a neuroscience acute care nurse at Harborview Medical Center in Seattle. 

But nearly two years after the pandemic began, amid a new period of vaccine requirements, mask enforcement, and staff shortages, Conley said the strains of the job have been as difficult as ever.

“It’s the verbal and physical abuse from visitors and family members that’s been some of the most challenging aspects of providing care,” Conley said. “I’ll have to ask visitors several times, ‘Hey, I need you to put that mask back on.'”

38-year old Washington State Trooper dies of COVID

On Sunday morning, the Washington State Patrol reported that Detective Eric Gunderson, a 16-year veteran of the WSP, died of COVID. The department indicated that Detective Gunderson contracted COVID “in service to the state of Washington.”

The WSP would not comment on how long he was sick, or if he worked while COVID positive, or his vaccination status. COVID has been the leading killer of law enforcement since 2020.

According to KOIN, Gunderson became ill on a business trip. Gunderson was assigned to District 1, which serves Pierce and Thurston Counties. He left behind a wife and two sons.

The Seattle Times reported that 68% of all Washington state workers impacted by the October 18 vaccination deadline are fully inoculated and have submitted their documentation.

Turning Point USA and former state rep Matt Shea lead anti-government/anti-vaccination rally in Spokane

Turning Point USA, founded by Charlie Kirk in 2021, created an offshoot organization called Turning Point Faith, collaborated with On Fire Ministries for an anti-vaccination rally in Spokane. An estimated 4,000 people gathered at Riverfront Park to hear Dr. Ryan Cole, Ada County, Idaho health officer, Leslie Monookian of Health Freedom Defense Fund, and former state representative Matt Shea. Washington state representative Jenny Graham (R-Spokane) was expected to speak but was a no-show at the rally.

Matt Shea’s speech was about freedom. He says getting fired from your job is good because you are standing up for your “rights.” 

Ms. Monookian advocated for ceasing all doctor visits, told the crowd that they and their children would be raped and murdered soon if this continues, and shared many comparisons to Nazis.

Matt Shea recently formed his own church, On Fire Ministries, after a schism with Ken Peters and the so-called Church at Planned Parenthood (TCAPP). TCAPP, along with Covenant Church, was ordered by a judge last week to stop protests outside of the Planned Parenthood Clinic after a year-long legal battle.

Matt Shea has been a subject of controversy for over a decade. While serving in Iraq, his commander had to disarm him due to “anger management issues.” In 2018 he distributed a manifesto titled Biblical Basis for War. The Spokane County Sheriff reported Shea to the FBI and said the manifesto was racist, anti-Semitic, and based on the white supremacist ideology of Christian Identity. The group wants to create a white-ethnostate based on Christian dogma in the Pacific Northwest.

Dr. Ryan Cole is antimask, called the COVID vaccine, “needle rape,” and leads the public health efforts in Ada County, Idaho, where Boise is located.

On the same day, Turning Point USA hosted a “medical freedom” rally in Enumclaw.

The anti-vaccination movement has increasingly aligned with anti-government and white nationalist groups. Organizations like Christian Identity and the Proud Boys using the messages of government overreach and defending freedom as recruiting tools.

Travel Advisories

We recommend avoiding recreational travel to Spokane, Yakima, Klickitat, Benton, Franklin, and Walla Walla counties. If the number of new cases in the South Central Hospital Region continues to decline, we will likely lift our advisory for this region in the next 7 to 14 days. We strongly advise against all nonessential travel to Alaska, Idaho, and Montana. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care if you experience a medical emergency.

Thank you

Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!

In August, King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin mentioned the N95 Project as a trusted source for N95 masks. A check on the website showed that a 50 count box of United States manufactured N95 masks are available for $40.00. We recommend wearing N95 masks indoors as they provide the best protection against COVID when properly fitted.

No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks

Vaccination

Number of vaccinated Washington state residents continues to rise

The Washington State Department of Health released updated vaccination numbers for the state and its 39 counties. On Monday, 76.4% of all residents 12 and over have received at least one dose, and 69.7% were fully vaccinated.

The number of people fully vaccinated slowed down last week. All but one county, Skamania, reported at least a modest increase. With 73.2% of residents fully vaccinated, San Juan County continues to lead the state. At 28.4%, Stevens County was in last and is the only county with less than 30% of residents fully vaccinated.

The two counties have a stark difference in the number of new COVID cases. On Monday, San Juan County was down to 51.9 cases per 100K people, while Stevens County was 1,104.1.

Pfizer vaccine booster shots are now available

Booster shots for eligible individuals are now available statewide. Individuals who received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine more than 6 months ago, are 65 or older, or are immunocompromised can receive their third dose immediately.

In the Kirland-Bellevue-Woodinville area, Walgreens, Rite-Aid, Bartell’s, and QFC are offering booster shots. Additionally, the third dose is available at the CVS located within the Target store at 17,700 NE 76th Street in Redmond.

Most locations require an appointment that can be set up online.

King County, Washington is reporting over 85% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

Malcontent News

Hospital Status

According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 20.6% of all acute care patients hospitalized in Washington have COVID. A hospital system caring for this many COVID-positive patients in acute care is considered to be under “severe stress.” ICUs are at 89.4% of capacity statewide, with 31.7% of ICU patients fighting COVID. The number of ICU patients dropped significantly from last week.

The 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients was down to 147, which is still higher than the January 2021 peak. The Department of Health reported 1,329 COVID patients statewide on September 26 and 220 on ventilators. Monday data is typically incomplete, so expect to see those numbers change tomorrow. If that number holds, hospitalizations have dropped 15%.

The number of patients at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland dropped 26% from last week. Currently, the hospital is treating 29 patients, 78% fully vaccinated (one patient, under 12, is not eligible). The ICU is caring for 9 patients, 78% fully vaccinated, with five on ventilators – none vaccinated. Only one vaccinated patient is under 60 years old. There was no additional information on the pediatric patient.

Cassie Sauer, CEO of the Washington State Hospital Association (WSHA), indicated she was “cautiously optimistic” about the declining number of hospitalizations. However, she cautioned that the future is uncertain with the arrival of cooler weather and, eventually, flu season.

At the same briefing, Dr. Radha Agrawal with Overlake Medical Center in Bellevue said the patients she is treating are younger, sicker, and not responding to treatment. 

“Once they get on a ventilator, the rate of success has been really, really low,” she said, adding, “We’re seeing so many younger people this year. It’s tragic, and it’s tragic for the patients, and it’s tragic for the families, and it’s tragic for the people taking care of them.”

KING also spoke with Dr. Todd Freudenberger, who works at Overlake Medical Center, about the stress and burnout staff are experiencing.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Dr. Freudenberger. “It’s particularly bad among our nursing staff.”

He said the start of every day involves assessing how short of staff they will be and how they will staff a constant influx of new COVID-19 positive patients. 

Unlike Idaho, Washington state has not declared what’s called ‘crisis standards of care,’ which is a decision that would force health care providers to systematically ration care because of a lack of space and resources.

“We are on a razor’s edge of that,” Dr. Freudenberger. “That would get at the very core of what we do as health care providers.”

Back to School

School DistrictStatusLess than 10 Active Cases10 or More Active Cases
BellevueGREEN– Bellevue (1)
– Eastgate (1)
– Enatai (4)
None
Lake WashingtonYELLOW– Alcott Elementary (1*)
– Barton Elementary (1*)
– Dickinson/Explorer Elementary (2*)
– Ella Baker Elementary (3*)
– Eastlake High (1*)
– Evergreen Middle School (1*)
– Franklin Elementary (2*)
– Finn Hill Middle School (1*)
– ICS (1*)
– Inglewood Middle School (2*)
– Juanita Elementary (1*)
– Kamiakin Middle School (3*)
– Keller Elementary (2*)
– Kirkland Middle School (1*)
– Lake Washington High (1*)
– Lakeview Elementary (3*)
– Muir Elementary (1*)
– Redmond Middle School (1*)
– Redmond High School (1*)
– Renaissance Middle School (1*)
– Rush Elementary (2*)

NorthshoreRED– Arrowhead Elementary (19)
– Canyon Creek Elementary (24)
– Canyon Park Middle School (8**)
– Cottage Lake Elementary (15)
– Crystal Springs Elementary (47**)
– East Ridge Elementary (22)
– Fernwood Elementary (13**)
– Frank Love Elementary (31)
– Hollywood Hills Elementary (19)
– Inglemoor High School (7)
– Innovation Lab High School (10)
– Kenmore Elementary (16)
– Kenmore Middle School (41**)
– Kokanee Elementary (51)
– Leota Middle School (5)
– Lockwood Elementary (20)
– Maywood Hills Elementary (20**)
– North Creek High School (21**)
– Northshore Middle School (12**)
– Ruby Bridges Elementary (9)
– Secondary Academy for Success (10)
– Shelton View Elementary (18**)
– Skyview Middle School (77**)
– Sunrise Elementary (20)
– Timbercrest Middle School (32**)
– Wellington Elementary (67)
– Westhill Elementary (19)
– Woodin Elementary (16**)
– Woodinville High School (20)
– Woodmoor Elementary (20**)
– Bothell High School (13*/102)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases

We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than 10 active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.

The Bellevue School District moved back to green status while new confirmed COVID cases were reported in four Lake Washington schools.

The number of positive cases between staff and students grew to 13 at Bothell High School over the weekend, with another 102 students are quarantined. The NECS reports the school has 1,607 students, and the Northshore School District website reports 236 faculty. Although the numbers in the district may appear to be bad, it is the only school district we are monitoring that is performing weekly universal COVID testing.

King County COVID vaccination rates – at least one dose ages 12 to 19 – by zip code as of September 27, 2021

Vaccination rates among adolescents 12 to 19 jumped significantly throughout the Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville area, although the sharp divide between the northern and southern half remains. Every zip code below 80% vaccinated for the age group saw an increase of at least 5% in a week.

We recommend that parents in the Bellevue and Lake Washington School District request better transparency on their publicly facing COVID dashboards.

Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville

King County Public Health updated the vaccination rates by zip code, with the numbers improving throughout the region. The northern half of Kirkland, Bothell, and Kenmore, continue to lag behind the rest of the local area.

King County, Washington, at least one dose of COVID vaccine, all eligible ages, as of September 27, 2021
Zip CodePercent vaccinated, at least one dose, 12 and older
9815592.7%
9802889.5%
9801185.9%
9803484.7%
9803392.3%
9807290.4%
9805294.8%
98004>95.0%
9803993.7%
9800594.6%
9800789.2%

Vaccination rates for those 12 and older by zip code – at least one dose

National Round-Up

Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker is reporting 30,952 new cases and 286 deaths nationwide. Most states do not provide reporting over the weekend, so a significant amount of data is missing.

President Joe Biden got his Pfizer vaccine booster shot today in a live broadcast.

“Boosters are important, but the most important thing we need to do is get more people vaccinated,” Biden said before receiving his injection.

“The vast majority of Americans are doing the right thing. Over 77% of adults have gotten at least one shot,” he said. “About 23% haven’t gotten any shots. And that distinct minority is causing an awful lot of damage for the rest of the country. This is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. That’s why I’m moving forward with vaccination requirements wherever I can.”

Life expectancy in the United States declined 1.5 years in 2020, the most significant drop since World War II. COVID deaths drove the decrease, with the life expectancy of men dropping 2.2 years.

Alaska

COVID is spinning out of control in Alaska, with the state reporting 21 COVID deaths on Monday and almost 4,000 new cases from Friday to Sunday. The state is leading the United States for new COVID cases with a staggering 7 day moving average of 1,225 new cases per 100K residents. Once the top state for vaccination, since April, it has slid to 32nd place.

Hospitals are currently treating 215 COVID patients, which is more than half of the state’s largest hospital capacity. Statewide there are only 18 ICU beds available.

The first 100 hospital workers from FEMA arrived in the state today.

Arizona

 On Monday, a Maricopa County judge struck down Arizona’s ban on face-mask mandates by school districts as unconstitutional, just two days before the ban was to have become law. 

Superior Court Judge Katherine Cooper ruled the ban on certain COVID-19 mitigation measures violated the so-called “single-subject rule” for legislation by being inserted into a state budget bill. 

“The bill is classic logrolling – a medley of special interests cobbled together to force a vote for all or none,” Cooper said in her 17-page ruling. 

Ninety minutes after the decision was released, Gov. Doug Ducey’s spokesman said the ruling by a “rogue judge” would be challenged:

Idaho

While Dr. Ryan Cole was exporting COVID misinformation in Spokane on Sunday, the Gem State set new records. The state is now treating 774 COVID patients, a new record. Among the 774, 207 in the ICU – Idaho only has 170 ICU beds.

St Luke’s Health was treating 303 COVID patients statewide and reported every ICU patient was unvaccinated.

Idaho is seventh in the nation for new COVID cases, and models don’t expect peak hospitalizations to come until late October.

Federal taxpayers have had to shell out $1.9 million in FEMA assistance to 331 families looking for aid with funeral expenses with almost 300 more applications in the pipeline.

For the week ending Sunday, the state reported another 1,516 cases involving 5- to 17-year-olds. That’s a 10% increase from the previous week, as K-12-aged children continue to account for a growing share of Idaho’s coronavirus caseload. Nine children were hospitalized with COVID-19 in the past week. 

Montana

Montana hospitals have more patients in the ICU than they did during the previous record peak over the winter. Hospitals averaged 109.3 COVID patients in the ICU per day last week, almost 15 a day higher than the previous record. Nearly half of all ICU patients are fighting COVID, and nearly none of them are vaccinated.

In Yellowstone County, 129 people are hospitalized with COVID-19. Of those, 111 are unvaccinated. Between the two hospitals, 30 patients are in the ICU, and 20 are on ventilators. Of those, all are unvaccinated.

FEMA approved the use of the Fort Harrison Veterans Affairs Medical Center for non-veteran patients.

“With more hospital beds available, hospitals now have another tool in their toolbox to treat Montanans in need of care as their systems are strained,” Gov. Greg Gianforte said Friday in a statement.

Montana has the fifth-highest rate of new COVID cases in the country, with 15% to 19% of all tests coming back positive.

New York

The deadline for 450,000 healthcare workers to get vaccinated has arrived in New York with a wide range of reports from hospital systems across the state. Statewide, over 95% of nurses and almost all doctors got vaccinated or had an exemption approved. Hospital systems are reporting a wide range of results from “total compliance” to 15% attrition. The number of clinicians that left has been reported to be low statewide.

The hardest-hit system appears to be Erie County Medical Center in Buffalo. The hospital announced it has suspended elective inpatient surgeries and stopped accepting intensive-care patients as it prepares to fire “hundreds of unvaccinated employees,” a spokesman Peter Cutler said.

In New York City, up to 11% of the 43,000 public health system employees refused to get vaccinated.

Ohio

The world-renowned Cleveland Clinic is now seeing its highest volume of COVID-19 patients since last winter, causing long wait times in Clinic emergency departments and fewer nonessential surgeries.

About 460 patients — including 135 in intensive care units — are in the Clinic’s Ohio hospitals. This is more than double the number of patients that were hospitalized with COVID-19 at the Clinic one month ago. The majority of these patients are unvaccinated, the hospital system said.

Statewide, unvaccinated people account for close to 94% of recent coronavirus hospitalizations, according to data from the Ohio Department of Health.

Oregon

To our south, Oregon has 886 COVID patients hospitalized, which is an increase of 11 from over the weekend. Almost a quarter of all COVID patients are in the ICU, and although that number declined by 25 over the weekend, most of that was due to patients succumbing to COVID.

Oregon hospitals will continue to remain under severe strain from the current surge of COVID-19 cases well into the fall, according to an updated forecast released today from Oregon Health & Science University.

The current surge, fueled by the highly contagious delta variant, is slowly beginning to abate as the virus finds fewer people who aren’t immune either through vaccination or recent infection. However, the new forecast indicates that hospitalizations will remain at extremely high levels until October 5 and will stay high well into December.

Wyoming

The Wyoming Department of Health reported an additional 854 confirmed COVID-19 cases. The number of COVID-19 patients in Wyoming hospitals fell below 200 on Sunday to 198 and dropped further to 192 on Monday, according to the WDH. The most recent peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations occurred on September 8, when there were 233 COVID-19 patients in Wyoming hospitals.

Five hospitals had zero available intensive care unit beds. Four had only one available ICU bed. While ICU beds are not exclusively used to treat COVID-19 patients, when hospitals deal with surges in these patients, that can put a strain on their ability to care for other types of critical-needs patients.

Misinformation

Taking the day off

DoH COVID data has been broken since August – local and national update for September 24, 2021

Knowledge is the best tool to fight against fear. A wise person chooses to be informed so they can make sound decisions. To join the fight against COVID misinformation, you can share this update through your social media platform of choice.

[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) Worsening problems with data from the Washington State Department of Health is hobbling efforts to understand the current situation and forecast the future. In counties where 40% or more of the total population is vaccinated, the number of cases per 100,000 people is down. Hospitalizations are up among people under 35 and have declined for individuals over 49. There is very little else that can be said with certainty.

Confirmed COVID cases between students and faculty at Bothell High School in the Northshore School District have grown to 12, with 100 more in quarantine. School officials in Eatonville moved its middle school to remote learning at least until mid-October due to an unspecified number of cases.

If you qualify for a Pfizer booster shot, we checked area pharmacies and grocery stores – they’re available now.

The Washington Department of Health data and reporting problems, which started in August and has only gotten worse, have become problematic. The new Modeling and Surveillance Situation Report, released by the DoH today, expressed uncertainty in the ongoing COVID situation because critical data is missing. Choose your path wisely over the next two months based on what is in the report. The first option makes for a harsh winter while the second path forecasts a sixth wave.

The City of Seattle has reached an agreement with three more unions today over modifications to the vaccine mandate. The Seattle Fire Department agreed to the compromise plan and incentives. The Seattle Police Officer Guild was absent from the negotiations.

Anti-vaccination advocates are becoming more desperate and violent. Hospital workers were threatened and attacked in multiple states this week, and the anti-vaccination group Waking Up Washington has resorted to telling their followers not to go to hospitals. The same group is planning an anti-vaccination “town hall meeting” at a Woodinville restaurant tomorrow. If you’re planning to attend, be sure to bring $20 cash and be ready to pay at the door.

Idaho and Alaska are still operating under “crisis standards of care,” and Alaska, in particular, is getting much worse. If you want to feel your blood pressure rise and have veins bulging out of your neck, please, read the Idaho section. We recommend not having anything breakable nearby. In Helena, Montana, where the city’s hospital is operating under crisis standards of care, state legislatures debated whether things are really that bad.

The situation in the Pacific Northwest is so deranged reporting Oregon has 60 available ICU beds statewide is now considered good news.

This update uses the latest data from the Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH), released on September 24, 2021.


vaccinationhospitalsschoolslocalnationalmisinformation

Washington State Update for September 24, 2021

Washington state COVID update

Data continues to show improvement across Washington, particularly in most of the highly vaccinated counties. In the South Central Hospital Region, which includes Benton, Franklin, Klickitat, Walla Walla, and Yakima counties, the 14 day moving average for new cases is 803.4 per 100K, statistically unchanged from yesterday. The Central Hospital Region, which represents King County, is 258.7, a slight drop from yesterday.

Percent of Total Population Fully VaccinatedAverage 14-Day New Case Rate (unadjusted)
50.00% or above (13 counties)464.5 (down)
40.00% to 49.99% (17 counties)683.3 (down)
28.10% to 39.99% (9 counties)755.8
14-Day New COVID Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate, Not Adjusted for Population

Through September 23, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 446.4 COVID cases per 100K – the change is “statistically insignificant,” but it’s worth noting the margin was 0.4 cases!. Counties in the 1,000.0 to 1,399.9 range include Lincoln (1,257.9), Franklin (1.127.5) and Stevens (1,115.0). Counties in the 800.0 to 999.9 per 100K range include Adams, Benton, Garfield, Grant, Grays Harbor, Okanogan, and Pend Oreille.

New cases by age group are statistically unchanged. Hospitalizations were up for people under 35 years old and down for individuals over 49 years old.

Age Group7-Day Case Rate7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-11193.41.3
Ages 12-19201.41.5 (up)
Ages 20-34193.45.0 (up)
Ages 35-49196.89.9
Ages 50-64135.414.7 (down)
Ages 65-7997.621.7 (down)
Ages 80+94.933.3 (down)
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group

The USA Today COVID Tracker has not been updated since yesterday. The state of Washington is not reporting the percentage of positive cases.

COVID reports from the Washington Department of Health providing fewer details

As Washington state entered what local officials called the fifth wave, the state provided fewer details on the Washington State Department of Health COVID-19 Data Dashboard. Between August 30 and September 24, the state removed or has delayed granular information, including:

  • Total number of staffed adult acute care beds available
  • Total number of adult acute care beds occupied
  • Total number of staffed adult ICU care beds available
  • Total number of adult ICU beds occupied
  • Staffed acute care and ICU beds available by Hospital Region
  • Number of COVID patients in acute care and the ICU by Hospital Region
  • Percentage of positive COVID cases detected by daily testing by county and state – accurate data hasn’t been available since August 27, and all data stopped updating last week – there will be no reporting until November 1

Some metrics, particularly hospital occupancy, number of people in the ICU, and number of people on ventilators, have gone through multiple revisions. When these issues have occurred in other states, they became the subject of national attention.

Suppose you compare the quality and quantity of data from the DoH to other states such as South Carolina. In that case, it exposes a breakdown in the region’s ability to gather and analyze COVID information.

South Carolina reported 2,602 confirmed new cases and another 889 probable cases today. The state had 111 confirmed COVID-related deaths and another 11 probable fatalities under investigation. The state processed 36,766 PCR tests, and 9.4% were positive. Currently, 8,511 acute care beds are being utilized, 86.4% of staffed beds in the state. Of those patients, 2,196 have COVID, with 533 in the ICU and 369 on ventilators. There was 223 hospital admission for COVID patients, and 28 hospitals in the South Carolina are experiencing staffing shortages.

We were able to write that in five minutes. The analysis in the first section of the state update took over half an hour and required processing raw data in Excel.

Last year, Washington state moved quickly to create detailed reports during the start of the pandemic. The state was the first to have a confirmed COVID case, a confirmed COVID death, and the first super spreader event. EvergreenHealth in Kirkland and the Kirkland Fire Department literally wrote the books for hospital COVID response, initial case management, and EMS response to potential COVID cases.

The lack of data, while Washington is in the worst COVID surge to date, is glaring, considering these tools were once available. We once led the nation in the capacity to process PCR tests and report the data. It erodes public trust when the number of skeptics is declining, and the remaining are increasingly radicalized. Doctors and nurses in the United States are being assaulted, stalked, and getting death threats. Anti-vaccination organizations are now advocating for people not to go to hospitals and, in a few cases, have attempted to remove people, including ICU patients, on BIPAP and ventilators.

Finally, current reporting does not track pediatric hospitalizations or pediatric acute care, NICU, or PICU resources despite weeks of promises that information would be shared.

We are disappointed that other larger media organizations are not highlighting these issues, especially when you consider the number of headlines generated by the actions of Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and Nebraska.

Department of Health issues updated modeling and surveillance situation report

The latest SitRep report from the Washington Department of Health highlights data fidelity problems, a shortage of testing capability statewide and provides one pessimistic outlook for the coming months.

Testing shortages create uncertainty in how many active cases are missed as hospital admissions spiked to a level 60% higher than the peak in January 2021. At the end of August, the statewide R0, the rate of transmission, dropped below 1.0. It has since increased to 1.3 and was showing an exponential growth curve. The report estimates that 1 in 106 Washingtonians are experiencing an active COVID case, the highest rate recorded since August 2020.

Statewide immunity to COVID is estimated at just over 60%, with 1 in 5 having some degree of natural immunity. With 40% of the entire population exposed, the Delta variant has a significant number of new hosts it can infect. Unvaccinated residents are ninefold more likely to be hospitalized than unvaccinated.

The state has two forecasted models. The first is based on the R0 at 0.9, which would support a declining number of new cases. Under that model, daily hospital admissions for COVID would return to levels seen outside of surges, less than 40 people a day statewide.

The second model assumes R0 doubles to 1.8 due to the Thanksgiving holiday and the state population becoming fatigued with mask wear. If this scenario becomes a reality, December daily hospital admissions will increase to 141 to 240 per day by the end of the year.

Neither scenario predicts that hospital occupancy will drop below the spring 2021 surge. The current IHME forecast model paints a similar picture, with the current projection supporting the first, more optimistic scenario.

Eatonville Middle School moves to virtual learning due to COVID outbreak

Officials in Eatonville announced that Eatonville Middle School was moving to remote learning through October 11 at the minimum. The district didn’t release any specific information on the number of infected students, staff, or if there is significant transmission within the school.

Located between Olympia and Mount Rainier in Pierce County, the town had 3,000 residents. According to the DoH, only 47.9% of county residents are fully vaccinated.

Letter to parents announcing Eatonville Middle School is moving to remote learning

Seattle reaches agreement with major public employee unions over vaccination mandates

Mayor Jenny Durkan announced the City of Seattle had reached a tentative agreement with the Coalition of City Unions, Fire Fighters Union Local 27, and IBEW Local 77 regarding vaccination requirements for City employees.

“Since the pandemic touched down in Seattle, our officers, firefighters, and frontline workers have worked day in and day out to provide nation-leading testing, vaccination, and relief programs for our residents. Those efforts are a key reason we have one of the highest vaccination rates and lowest cases and hospitalizations of every major American city,” said Mayor Durkan.

The agreement is expected to be ratified, provides 8 hours of paid time off for any employee who submits a vaccination form by October 5 and is fully vaccinated by October 18. Employees can begin the vaccination process by October 18 and not face termination. They will have to use their available accrued time off while going through the vaccination process, which can last from two to six weeks. Finally, each employee will receive 40 hours of supplementary paid leave for COVID-related reasons. Employees who are fully vaccinated by October 18 will receive an additional 40 hours of supplemental leave for a total of 80 hours.

“Worker safety and certainty are of paramount importance, and the unions involved with these negotiations centered those concerns throughout a complex and time-sensitive process,” said Shaun Van Eyk, PROTEC17 Union Representative and Coalition of City Unions Co-Chair. “We believe that these two tentative agreements honor the essential, public-sector workers whose work could not be performed remotely and create clear, transparent, and equitable pathways for all City workers with respect to the vaccine mandate. While both agreements took a great deal of time and effort to reach, the outcome is unquestionably worth it for the health and safety of our union members, their families, and our communities.”

The city has now reached vaccination agreements with six labor unions. The Seattle Police Officer Guild, SPOG, was not part of the agreement. The city indicated they were still negotiating with police union leaders.

Almost 90 local, county, and state employees sued Washington state to try and block vaccine mandates earlier this month. One of the plaintiffs claimed up to 150 City of Seattle firefighters were ready to resign. In August, SPOG Union President Mike Solan said up to 200 officers were prepared to quit.

Anti-vaccination activist groups calling for the sick to “avoid hospitals”

As part of a national trend, the activist group Waking Up Washington is telling its followers to “avoid hospitals” because “they’ve fired many of their free thinkers.”

In a video posted today by Palmer Davis of La Center, Washington, she suggests that up to 15% of the medical workforce has been terminated or will be terminated by October 18. Nationally, no single medical system has come close to those numbers, with 97% to 99.5% of all employees choosing to get vaccinated.

Ms. Davis is a central figure in the Washington state anti-vaccination movement, which has seen its numbers dwindle since the summer months. She told her followers to go to another website for medical treatment plans. The site includes access to an online doctor for prescriptions of medications, with a $149 fee for a consultation for Ivermectin. According to WebMDRx, 10 pills cost between $23 and $56.

The site also links to the discredit organization America’s Frontline Doctors and the FLCCC. We have elected not to link to that website as it provides dangerous medical advice.

Suggested treatments include hydrogen peroxide nebulization and taking dandelion, pine needle, and eucalyptus supplements. Neublizing hydrogen peroxide can be fatal, and none of these supplements have any therapeutic value. The website DNS is provided by Google, according to a whois search.

This trend isn’t unique in Washington, with other groups recommending “vigilante treatments” in unchecked Facebook groups and shared through Tik Tok videos. Hospital workers have been assaulted in Alaska, Massachusetts, Texas, Georgia, Idaho, Washington, and Canada in the last month.

Anti-vaccination “town hall meeting” in Woodinville tomorrow at local restaurant

Tomorrow, the same group is holding a “town hall meeting” at Rooster’s Bakery and Cafe in Woodinville. The event touts legal resources to fight vaccine mandates and “expert testimony” about “rigged statistics.”

To attend, you are required to pay a $20 fee in cash at the door.

Editor’s comment: Nothing suspicious about that.

Anti-vaccination event flyer for Woodinville tomorrow

Rooster’s Bakery and Cafe has multiple complaints on Yelp for not following COVID guidelines. The cafe’s Facebook page hasn’t been updated since the fall of 2020.

Travel Advisories

We recommend avoiding all travel to Spokane, Yakima, Klickitat, Benton, Franklin, and Walla Walla counties, along with Alaska, Idaho, and Montana. Hospital resources in these regions are constrained, and you may receive inadequate care if you experience a medical emergency.

Thank you

Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!

In August, King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin mentioned the N95 Project as a trusted source for N95 masks. A check on the website showed that a 50 count box of United States manufactured N95 masks are available for $40.00. We recommend wearing N95 masks indoors as they provide the best protection against COVID when properly fitted.

No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks

Vaccination

No update

King County, Washington is reporting over 85% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

Malcontent News

Hospital Status

According to the DoH COVID Dashboard, 22.0% of all acute care patients hospitalized in Washington have COVID. A hospital system caring for this many COVID-positive patients in acute care is considered to be under “severe stress.” ICUs are at 89.5% of capacity statewide, with 33.9% of ICU patients fighting COVID. There has been a slow decline for all data points over the last week.

The 7-day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients was unavailable today. The Department of Health reported 1,436 COVID patients statewide on September 23 and 233 on ventilators. We aren’t confident that these numbers are accurate. Hospital occupancy rates don’t support this much of a decline, and the state dashboard noted, “The “hospital admission rate” metric on the Healthcare System Readiness tab was not updated today due to an interruption in our data systems.”

Harborview Medical Center is only at 113% capacity, which is an improvement from last week when the Level I trauma center was at 117% capacity.

KCPQ in Seattle reported that almost half of nurses in Washington are ready to leave the profession. The issue isn’t vaccine mandates. Nurses are burned out from the trauma of 19 months of death, harassment, and vanished community support.

Chelsey Roos, a registered nurse who works at St. Joseph’s Hospital in Tacoma, spoke with KCPQ.

“You get into your car after work, and you just want to cry.”

“Not only do we have roughly 50% more cases than we had during the December surge, but we’re caring for all of those patients with fewer staff, because it’s been so challenging for particularly our nurses, that people are choosing to leave healthcare because of how stressful it’s been,” says Dr. Steven Mitchell, the medical director of Harborview Medical Center’s Emergency Room.

It’s a perfect storm, the stress of the job causing many to leave-which then leaves the remaining nurses with an even heavier workload.

“It burns people out, its burning people out so easily, we can’t seem to keep enough nurses working or wanting to work in acute care or a hospital, it’s just becoming too much, and I think people are wanting to reprioritize things in their lives,” says Roos.

Providence Hospital in Spokane reported an increase in the number of pediatric patients in a press briefing today. Station KXLY quoted Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center Chief Medical Officer Dr. Daniel Getz.

“I don’t know what my daily census is today, but this is really the first time in the COVID surge this last week where we’ve seen an increase in children that have been admitted for the care of COVID.”

KREM reported the number could be as high as 10, but we have trust issues with their reporting after the Medical Lake report.

Back to School

School DistrictStatusLess than 10 Active Cases10 or More Active Cases
BellevueYELLOW– Bellevue (1)
– Big Picture (1)
– Chinook (1)
– Eastgate (1)
– Enatai (36)
– Interlake (2)
– Lake Hills (13)
– Puesta del Sol (2)
– Wilburton (3)
None
Lake WashingtonYELLOW– Alcott Elementary (2*)
– Ella Baker Elementary (3*)
– Community School Elementary (7)
– Dickinson Elementary (2*)
– Eastlake High (1*)
– Einstein Elementary (1*)
– Evergreen Middle School (1*)
– Finn Hill Middle School (1*)
– Benjamin Franklin Elementary (2*)
– Robert Frost Elementary (9)
– Inglewood Middle School (3*)
– Juanita Elementary (2*)
– Juanita High School (1*)
– Kamiakin Middle School (4* – see below)
– Helen Keller Elementary (1*)
– Peter Kirk Elementary (2*)
– Kirkland Middle School (1*)
– Lake Washington High (1*)
– Lakeview Elementary (1*)
– Muir Elementary (1*)
– Redmond Elementary (2*)
– Redmond Middle School (1*)
– Redmond High School (1*)
– Rose Hill Elementary (1*)
– Rose Hill/Stella Schola Middle School (2*)
– Thoreau Elementary (4)
– Mark Twain Elementary (3*)

NorthshoreRED– Arrowhead Elementary (13)
– Canyon Creek Elementary (24)
– Canyon Park Middle School (8)
– Cottage Lake Elementary (16)
– Crystal Springs Elementary (47**)
– East Ridge Elementary (24)
– Fernwood Elementary (13**)
– Frank Love Elementary (28)
– Hollywood Hills Elementary (17)
– Inglemoor High School (7)
– Innovation Lab High School (9)
– Kenmore Elementary (15)
– Kenmore Middle School (39**)
– Kokanee Elementary (50)
– Leota Middle School (5)
– Lockwood Elementary (8)
– Maywood Hills Elementary (14**)
– North Creek High School (21**)
– Northshore Middle School (10**)
– Ruby Bridges Elementary (7)
– Secondary Academy for Success (10)
– Shelton View Elementary (18**)
– Skyview Middle School (82**)
– Sunrise Elementary (21)
– Timbercrest Middle School (28)
– Wellington Elementary (64)
– Westhill Elementary (10)
– Woodin Elementary (9)
– Woodinville High School (21)
– Woodmoor Elementary (21**)
– Bothell High School (12*/100)
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases

We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than 10 active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.

We had a parent-reported confirmed COVID case at Kamiakin Middle School on Tuesday. Because the Lake Washington School District updates its dashboard weekly, we don’t know if this is in addition to the 3 cases reported on Monday or if any of those earlier cases have returned to class. We have set the number to 4.

The number of positive cases between staff and students has swelled to 12 at Bothell High School, with another 100 students quarantined. The NECS reports the school has 1,607 students, and the Northshore School District website reports 236 faculty. Although the numbers in the district may appear to be bad, they are the only school district of the three we are following that is performing weekly universal COVID testing.

We recommend that parents in the Bellevue and Lake Washington School District request better transparency on their publicly facing COVID dashboards.

Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville

Booster shots for eligible individuals are now available in the Kirland-Bellevue-Woodinville area. Individuals who received both doses of the Pfizer vaccine more than 6 months ago, are 65 or older, or are immunocompromised can receive their third dose immediately.

We canvased area drug and grocery stores to check for availability. Walgreens, Rite-Aid, Bartell’s, and CV are all offering booster shots immediately. Booster shots are also available at the CVS located within the Target store at 17,700 NE 76th Street in Redmond. Additionally, the QFC at Kirkland Urban is providing booster shots.

Most locations require an appointment that can be set up online. The Kirkland Urban QFC was already completely booked through the weekend.

National Round-Up

Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker is reporting 128,731 new cases and 3,157 deaths nationwide.

Alaska

Alaska continues to operate in crisis standards of care as the situation in the vast and remote state continues to deteriorate. Officials reported 1,793 new cases and a staggering 41 deaths (yes, we know the headline says 1800 cases and 44 deaths – if you read the story, it says 1793 cases and 41 deaths, talk amongst yourselves – we’re over it) in the state of just over one million people. The numbers included hundreds of older cases due to a data entry backlog.

The state had a record of 217 COVID patients hospitalized. The statewide 7 day moving average for new COVID cases is a staggering 976 per 100K people, and currently, 9.2% of all COVID tests are coming back positive.

The state now has 20 ICU beds available, an improvement from yesterday, and 74 residents on ventilators.

The Guardian reported Soldotna’s Central Peninsula Hospital spokesperson Bruce Richards discussed worker burnout and frustration with the crisis, particularly because it was preventable. “The evidence speaks for itself,” Richards said. “It’s very clear that a vaccine will help keep you out of the hospital.”

Soldotna’s Central Peninsula hospital, about 150 miles from Anchorage, is operating at 133% capacity. Richards is worried about what will come next. “We all know that hospitalizations lag following these high-case days, so I don’t know what’s in store for us.”

The situation has become so desperate that medevac aircraft that would typically fly patients to Anchorage or Seattle are moving patients from Anchorage to rural hospitals.

The goal is to make more room at the busy Anchorage hospitals, which offer more intensive care and other services, especially sick patients that rural hospitals can’t support.

This practice is known as “load leveling,” and it’s done more regularly between hospitals in urban areas, where patients can be moved by ambulance. It’s far rarer in rural Alaska, though, since most hospitals in those areas aren’t connected by road and can be hundreds of miles apart.

“Once you start involving learjets and medevac companies, it gets infinitely more complicated,” Brunner said in an interview Thursday.

Patients that don’t need critical care are flown to acute care hospitals in rural areas. For many rural hospitals, the patients they receive are sicker than they usually see, straining staff. Worse, patients are separated from family and friends and face potential air ambulance bills in the tens of thousands of dollars.

In the 6,000 resident town of Bethel, Alaska, half the police force is threatening to resign over a recent vaccination mandate. The remote city is only accessible by boat or airplane during the warmer months, and ice road in the winter. The city is experiencing one of the highest COVID case rates in the state and country and doesn’t have the resources to deal with the surge. City officials decided to mandate vaccinations.

“The city had no choice,” James Harris, Human Resource Manager, told The Daily Beast. “We had to react.”

Resistance to the vaccine from police in Bethel is endemic of opposition the vaccine has seen from police departments across the country. Many officers have refused vaccine mandates, filed unsuccessful lawsuits, and decried the measures as unconstitutional.

But in Bethel, some say police have gone a step further, dangling the possibility of increased violence over remote residents’ heads if the city were to push half of the police force out of a job.

Among other highlights, Police Chief Richard Simmons baldly told KYUK earlier this week that the small city was “one of the most violent communities in the nation” and needed every one of its officers.

Available data shows that Bethell has a high crime rate but not one of the highest in the nation.

Alaskans have been abusive to health care workers who ask them about COVID-19 or discuss the disease in public, according to health officials. 

Alaska Chief Medical Officer Dr. Anne Zink, who also works in a hospital emergency department, said many retail pharmacists have stopped asking customers if they’d like the vaccine because of the fury it triggers.

“We see many triage nurses in the emergency department also afraid to ask that question,” Zink said, “because patients have been violent towards them in the emergency department when asking the question if they’re vaccinated or if they have COVID-19.”

Idaho

Idaho reported 1,646 new COVID cases and 34 new deaths on Friday. The state continues to operate under crisis standards of care. Unlike states such as Alaska, Oregon, and Washington, which use “load leveling” to maximize resources, Idaho hospitals can go it alone.

While people are dying in hospital waiting areas in the Panhandle, hospitals in the eastern part of the state are operating under “contingency care.” Both Oregon and Washington are running on “contingency care protocols,” which give medical providers options to defer certain treatments and take other steps to maximize resources.

Editor’s Note: It is unconscionable that parts of Idaho are stacking bodies in morgues, storing corpses in unrefrigerated areas, and placing them in railroad cars while people are dying in waiting rooms, that any hospital could have the audacity to speak about available resources publicly. If Idaho has unused resources, maybe Washington state should be less generous in its support.

The Idaho State Journal reported  Portneuf Medical Center has been operating near capacity amid a surge in COVID-19 cases, but CEO Jordan Herget is confident the hospital has ample resources to avoid crisis standards of care.

While hospitals in the Magic and Treasure valleys and Northern Idaho have added beds in conference rooms, cafeterias, and other available spaces, Herget believes PMC should have adequate traditional bed capacity heading forward.

On Monday, Herget said PMC would open a special care unit with nine rooms equipped with negative pressure technology to treat patients with contagious upper respiratory diseases, such as the coronavirus.

“Older adults are facing serious risk of discrimination, resulting in death,” because of Idaho’s crisis standards, Justice for Aging attorneys wrote in their complaint letter. Symptomatic breakthrough cases are overwhelming among people over 70 years old.

Boise State University opted to tell the doctors and nurses trying to save lives to get bent, halting its plan to require fans to show proof of vaccination for COVID-19 or test negative for the coronavirus before attending a football game at Albertsons Stadium.

The school wrote in a statement on Friday, “In light of our declining campus positivity rates and high vaccination rates, the university will shift from testing all ticket holders in the student section to random sample testing of that population before next week’s football game.”

According to the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, the percentage of Idaho’s eligible population (12 and older) fully vaccinated is just 51.5%.

We’re sure that Dr. Ashley Carvalho, completing her residency training in Boise, appreciates this decision. A family member of a COVID patient under her treatment threatened to shoot her last week, and police had to be called to the hospital.

Photo credit – Dr. Ashley Carvalho – photo after being a family member of a patient threatened to shoot her

“I received a slew of verbal abuse from a patient’s family members who called me an incompetent doctor, threatened me with physical violence, and demanded I give them my name and medical license number so they could sue. This was because I refused to prescribe Ivermectin, which is not proven to treat COVID-19 and is recommended only in clinical trials at this point, and hydroxychloroquine, which current research suggests is not effective or safe in treating COVID-19. My patient was struggling to breathe, but the family refused to allow me to provide care. A call to the police was the only solution.”

But wait, there’s more. In Coeur d’Alene, police had to fend off anti-mask and anti-vaccination protesters who attempted to storm the school district’s board of trustees special meeting on Friday. Yes, the story is from KREM, and yes, we were roasted, but KREM has receipts in the form of videos of the incident (feel free to talk amongst yourselves).

Several physicians from Kootenai Health were slated to speak during the meeting as the hospital hit two milestones this week: its highest number of COVID-19 inpatients and the highest number of COVID-19 ICU patients at 43. The hospital in Coeur d’Alene typically only has 26 ICU beds.

The group was described as a “mob” of 200 people who were “extremely hostile.”

Editor’s Note: We remind you again, our state is supporting Idaho’s bad choices. In the coming weeks, it is likely at least a couple of the people in this “mob” will be begging the doctors who had planned to speak today to save their lives.

Wait – there’s more. Andy Grover, the executive director of the Idaho School Administrators Association, told the Idaho Board of Education that workers are leaving Idaho schools “for hiring bonuses and higher wages in fast food.”

“When there’s that kind of things to compete against, we don’t have a chance,” he said. “We just don’t have employees. We’ve seen from 2 or 3 classified staff, all the way to 60 classified staff, that districts are missing across the state.”

He said three school districts were closed Friday, two due to staffing shortages and one because of COVID-19 cases among students. He said open schools are also struggling with lower than normal attendance.

Montana

Montana reported 1,326 new COVID cases across the state where officials aren’t reporting unvaccinated versus vaccinated cases. The state has 395 people hospitalized with COVID and didn’t share how many are on ventilators.

In Billings, the city’s largest hospital reported running out of “hallway space” to put patients while the ICU is operating at 160% capacity.

According to KHN, Billings Clinic said it might soon implement “crisis standards of care” that would force staff to save provisions for patients they can most likely save.

Yellowstone County is seeing the worst of the surge. The Montana Department of Health and Human Services reported 2,461 current active cases there, as much as the next two counties combined.

Another county health officer resigned in Montana. Blaine County public health nurse Jana McPherson-Hauser said her resignation would take effect October 15 because of the “constant negativity, pushback, disregard and lack of support” that health officials have faced throughout the coronavirus pandemic.

And in Helena, where a hospital is operating at crisis standards of care, state lawmakers questioned health officials on the severity of the situation.

During Wednesday’s meeting, Rep. Jane Gillette, a Republican from Bozeman, disputed concern over the jump in new cases.

“I’m not sure I would feel really dismayed about the rate increase when you just think of it really mathematically,” Gillette said. “… Just put in simple terms, if you had two (cases) at one point and you increased to four, you’d increase by 50%, so you just kind of have to put it in … more broad terms and not … lose the other data. So, for instance, when we look at the number of COVID cases per 100,000, we’re pretty much just middle of the pack normal.”

If being the sixth-worst in the United States is “middle of the pack,” Montana is competing with its neighbor to the west in a race to the political bottom.

Oregon

Another 2,113 new confirmed and presumptive cases were added, bringing the state total to 320,990.

There were 855 COVID-19 hospitalizations, 30 fewer than the previous day, and 268 patients in ICU beds, which was an increase of five. There were 60 available adult ICU beds across the state of Oregon, which is an improvement from two weeks ago.

The OHA’s latest COVID-19 forecast shows a slowing in the decline of daily cases and hospitalizations through mid-October. The report estimates 495 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 1,480 daily cases and 81 hospitalizations for the two weeks between September 29 and October 12.

In our neighbor to the south, new COVID cases among children now outnumber those among the elderly.

In another sign that the anti-vaccination movement isn’t as big as it presents itself, a little more than 5% of Oregon’s 42,000 state employees have applied for vaccination exemptions. About 90% of the 2,284 requests come from people seeking religious exemptions. So far, almost half of state employees have provided proof of vaccination.

Misinformation

Taking the day off

Judgement Day – COVID case numbers indicate Phase 2 ahead for King County

[SEATTLE] – (MTN) Data from King County Health indicated COVID spread was accelerating in King County as officials start their review of statewide infection rate and hospitalization data to determine which counties will move back to Phase 2 on May 6. On Friday new COVID cases in King County were 245.5 per 100,000 and hospitalizations had grown to 6.1 per 100,000. Both numbers are significantly above the requirements to stay in Phase 2.

In Ferry County, officials announced they voluntarily moved back to Phase 2 on Friday in an attempt to contain a major outbreak caused by an indoor super spreader event on April 9-11. Ten percent of the town of Republic has tested positive since the Fraternal Order of Eagles held a self-described “recruiting event” featuring live entertainment. A person infected with COVID connected to the event died on Friday, according to a report in The Spokesman-Review.

Ferry County Hospital, a 25-bed facility, has been overwhelmed with patients, transferring the sickest individuals to hospitals in Spokane and Wenatchee. COVID positivity in the county exceeds 25% indicating significant under-testing and widespread community transmission.

A review of data available from the Washington Department of Health indicated that 31% of all COVID cases detected in the county have happened in the last 19 days. Ferry County has the second-lowest single-dose vaccination rate in Washington and the third-lowest fully vaccinated rate, according to the latest data from the Springfield News-Leader.

Technically, Ferry County remained qualified to stay in Phase 3 but with city offices in Republic working on reduced hours due to so many sickened and other community impact, officials felt there was a critical need to introduce stronger measures.

In King County, hospitalization rates for COVID increased 15% in a week and were not showing signs of abating. Thirteen counties are at risk of going back to Phase 2. Currently, 4 counties, including Ferry, have moved backward in the last 2 weeks.

State officials will announce on Monday which counties will move back to Phase 2 and any other measures that will be taken to help slow the spread. The biggest impact is reducing indoor occupancy rates at public venues such as restaurants, gyms, and stores to 25%.