Some people call it Juneuary; others call it June Gloom. If
you live on the Pacific Coast, from San Diego to Neah Bay, we all get sucked
in. April rain gives way to sunny days in May and just as the temperatures get
into the 70s, surprise! The fog rolls in, low clouds, morning drizzle, and
temperatures that struggle to get to 60. A long-standing Puget Sound joke is
summer begins on July 5th, as the lingering gloom hangs on into early July.
We already had record heat earlier this month, including a
blistering 95-degree day. Our warm sunny streak sputtered over the previous
weekend, and June Gloom hung over the region with low clouds and drizzle. Get
ready; more is coming.
Today (Tuesday) is going to be the nicest day of the work
week. We’ll have more sun than clouds and our high 40s and low 50s of this
morning will give way to mid-70s later in the day. Tomorrow will start similar
but will go downhill.
Wednesday afternoon the clouds will thicken, the air will
get unstable, and rain showers will start up. It wouldn’t be out of the question
to get some rumbles of thunder.
Wednesday night, Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, and
Friday night? June Gloom in full force. Cloudy with some sun breaks, rain
showers, drizzle, low clouds, and temperatures slightly below average.
This upcoming weekend, which will be the start of a vacation
week for many, looks nice. Morning clouds on Saturday (and I’m guessing drizzle
only because it wouldn’t be the Greenwood Car Show without rain for at least
part of the day – ARGH) will give way to a day similar to our Monday, complete
with highs in the 70s.
So why June Gloom? Well, you can blame it on the Pacific
Ocean. As we get into late meteorological spring, soil temperatures and inland
waterway temperatures increase, while the vast waters of the Pacific Ocean need
more time to catch up. Warm ground + cool marine air flowing inland =
condensation. Cold air sinks and that creates low clouds and fog. The moisture is
squeezed out of the atmosphere, low clouds become saturated, the air can’t hold
the water anymore, and we get drizzle and light rain. As our days get longer
and the sun sits higher in the sky, the marine air dries out, and we get sun breaks
that turn into blue sky late afternoons. The sun goes down; the air cools, the
marine air rushes back in, repeat.
What about the Fourth of July? Well, that’s throwing darts
at this point, but long-range models appear to indicate it will be pleasant.
Stay tuned for more.
Thanks to some Malcontents who did a bit of research, we have an answer to the question, is this national pride or white nationalism.
The answer is – national pride. The story behind the story is actually pretty fascinating, and you can watch this video to learn more.
I’m back from a break and our annual photography trip to the Palouse region of Washington state. We spent four days covering almost 1200 miles taking pictures from sunup to sundown. Last night I discovered I snapped 1059 images on my primary camera, and maybe 50 to 100 more on my cellphone. I also shot a handful of video clips.
When I saw this picture right after I snapped it, I had a lot of thoughts going on in my head. Here is a piece of rusting farm equipment with a tattered American flag flying off of it. The field of wheat it sits in appears lush and healthy, but the soil is parched, and the plants are shorter than our last trip, which was a full month earlier in the growing season. The state has been in a drought, and there isn’t much relief to come.
Depressed prices have rocked United States grain farmers along
with extreme weather, changing growing seasons, tariffs, and the changing
American diet. Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies are accelerating in 2019, but are
nowhere near peak levels during the 1980s.
Last night I poured through a thousand images and selected
about 80 for post-processing, including this photo, which I posted on Instagram
and Facebook while on my trip. I had planned on Thoughtful Tuesday to write
about the struggles of the American farmer, the strategic role they play for the
nation, and the dying of rural America. That was my plan. Then I did post-production
on this photo.
If you’re not familiar with the photography process, the
first step is to zoom in on an image as part of the selection process. You’re
looking to see how crisp the picture is. A perfect photo with proper focus will
have crisp details in the areas you want to pull the viewer to and the required
depth. The fastest way to figure that out is to zoom in on key features. Text, numbers,
and words are an excellent choice for this process.
My two choices for this picture was the American flag and
the word, “Harris,” on the equipment. The stars on the American flag were surprisingly
crisp as the tatters were in motion with a stiff wind blowing. When I zoomed
into the “Harris,” I suddenly felt sick to my stomach. There below the Harris,
in smaller font but equally crisp the number 88.
The number 88 is associated with white nationalism and
Neo-Nazis, with the letter H being the eighth letter in the alphabet. In these
circles, the number 88 is a hidden in plain sight reference to, “Heil Hitler.” The
problem, of course, is the number 88 could also be completely innocuous. The
farm could have been established in 1888; the person who put this here could
have some connection to 1988, or 1888. There may be no connection with white
nationalism at all, or there may be.
Three years ago I wouldn’t have given this a second thought. I still knew of the 88 connection to white nationalism, but I wouldn’t even consider someone would be this brazen, but that was then, and this is now. Located on the Idaho panhandle border, a known hotbed of white nationalism, the Pandora’s box open and supporters of the doctrine almost as visible as the civil rights unrest of the 1950s and 1960s, or when the German American Bund was active in the 1930s.
There are so many seeds of distrust sown in our nation due
to social media and political agendas, ironically some of it backfiring on the
architects of this erosion. US allies have been told for almost three years
that US intelligence arms can’t be trusted, and now the same administration is
saying, “trust us, our intelligence agencies say Iran attacked two oil tankers!”
All but our most ardent ally, the UK, is looking at us going, “we’d like to see
other intelligence, as you’ve been saying you can’t trust your own.”
So is this a monument of white nationalism? A homage to MAGA and a proclamation that greatness is achieved when we are white? Is this a symbol of hate? Or is this simply a number on a rusting piece of equipment? A monument to a time when rural America had a path to prosperity supported by the local businesses? In 2019, it is really hard to tell.
We sure have been using a lot of Wite-out and erasers in the record books this year, and after the record high of yesterday, new records were set just as the sun was rising on the 12th of June.
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport set a record for the warmest low temperature for June 12, where the mercury dropped only to 65 degrees for a few minutes. That beat the old record of 56 degrees and was the fourth warmest June low temperature since weather records have been kept in Seattle.
The official forecast is for 89 degrees, but as I’ve written previously the computer models don’t do a good job of capturing the impact of thermal troughs on our high temperatures, and forecast low. We saw that yesterday with an official forecast high of 83, and an actual high of 87.
We have more cloud cover today that helped hold the heat in overnight, and will moderate our temperatures, slightly. That’s the wild card, how much cloud cover, for how long, and does it thicken up during the heat of the day. There is the slimmest chance of some showers drifting off of the Cascades this afternoon, but the humidity is very low so they’ll have a hard time not falling apart as they drift west.
If we don’t get thickening clouds between noon and 6 PM, expect the official high to land between 92 and 93 degrees, the forecast is 89. This will break the KSEA record of 85, and the Federal Building record of 88. As for Kirkland you can expect the entire community to hit 90 day, unless we get some stray drops. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Totem Lake around 93 or 94 -our area hot spot.
Stay cool and remember:
Juanita Beach is still closed due to e-coli contamination
Area lakes and rivers are still cold, be careful when swimming
Don’t leave your pets in your car – not even for a few minutes
Don’t leave your kids in your car – not even for a few minutes
Haggard? Tired? Stressed? Double check that backseat before leaving home, especially if you have kids or pets – shit happens
Bring patience to your commute, this kind of heat will test the mechanical condition of vehicles and expect stalls and breakdown to fuck up our area traffic
May and June is a time of commencement at primary and secondary education institutions across the United States. From high school diplomas to newly minted doctors, this is a time of transition. At a recent graduation ceremony, one of the schools was honoring their theology graduates. Who would study theology in 2019? Beyond the obvious answer of priests and poets, there is a significant demand for theologians in the modern workplace. You see, the robots are coming.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is moving at a fast pace, and
Moore’s Law provides some insight into how fast it will improve – double the
performance every 18 months. The idea of AI achieving singularity and becoming
self-aware is moving from the pages of science fiction and into the realm of
science fact. Not this year, not next, likely not even the next decade, but in
our lifetime it seems an almost certainty.
Today, AI touches us in many ways and goes far beyond sales
and marketing algorithms that display ads of items on webpages you visit 30
seconds after you browsed for a said item on Amazon (or eBay, or clicked a
Facebook ad, or…). Some AI is simply the computerization of long created
formulas such as credit evaluation, your CLUE report for insurance quotes, or actuary
tables. But as computing power doubles every 18 months, and our ability to
process the mountains of data collected over the last three decades get better,
AI is moving to replace a lot of human decisions.
AI is already being used by IBM to determine
who will likely quit their job with 95% accuracy. Yes, a whole 95%! That
means one out of twenty people are misidentified by the AI, and they are either
pushed out the door without real due cause or given an incentive to stay when
there was no reason to provide one. So if you end up on the AI, “this person is
on a quit job trajectory,” list, you have a 5% chance of your career being
ruined or enhanced depending on the decision of an AI. Just let that sink in
for a little bit.
There are billions of dollars, if not tens-of-billions,
being invested in developing Level
V autonomy for cars and trucks – a fully autonomous four-season any road
any condition self-driving vehicle. Contrary to what some cheerleaders are
declaring, we are still years away from this goal. Tesla has already missed
preannounced goals for self-driving cars, self-driving test vehicles have killed
people, and Tesla vehicles still struggle to identify potential risks like 18-wheelers
in the road. There isn’t’ a single autonomous system that exists today that
can drive on a snow-covered highway, as we had in February in the Puget Sound
region. Without the ability to see the lane markers, a self-driving car can’t pick
a course on a multilane road. However, that is only the beginning of the challenges.
As an example, let’s say I’m sitting in my fully autonomous car,
and it is taking my future elderly self to a doctor’s appointment. So far, this
is pure goodness as I still have my independence. Now let us introduce little
Jane. Jane is playing with a ball. Jane rolls the ball to Dick. Dick misses the
ball. Run Dick, run!
Little Dick runs right in front of my autonomous car, which is traveling at 40
MPH, the posted speed limit on this road that goes by a park. In the oncoming
lane is an 18 wheeler, also autonomous and driving at the 40 MPH posted speed
limit. Now the AI has to make a choice. It calculates the distance faster than
a human ever could from the front bumper to little Dick using cameras and
sensors better than the human eye. It runs a formula that is only as good as
the lowest paid programmer that worked on that particular code, that considers
road conditions, angle, lighting, vehicle condition, and concludes there is no
way it can stop in time without running over Dick at a speed of 21 MPH.
Now the AI runs another subroutine to determine which is the
best outcome. Does the car swerve right into the park, brake and hold and hit little
Dick anyway, or dive left and crash head-on into the 18-wheeler. As part of
that subroutine, it looks at my old age versus Dick being seven years old,
calculates the risk of injury to Dick versus me, and then calculates the
severity of the potential injury and quality of remaining life. The AI
concludes Dick is about a seven-year-old male child based on what it sees in
its sensors and running it through a comparative database. Based on those
calculations, the autonomous car makes a choice and commits suicide into the
18-wheeler traveling at 40 MPH.
It calculated I had an 82% chance of surviving the accident,
while Dick had only a 3% chance of being hit by flying debris if it swerves
into the truck. It calculated it could slow down to 21 MPH before hitting the
18-wheeler, for an equivalent impact of 61 MPH. It calculated there was a 13%
chance my injuries would be fatal, short or long term, but that Dick would be
more severely injured and with a greater disability if it elected to run him,
and the ball over. It also took this as the safe bet because Dick, being a pedestrian
and a flawed human, had a 38% chance of doing something not considered by the
subroutine.
The auto industry that builds these cars got protection from
Congress years earlier, making it impossible for me to sue them for the AI
decision. The self-driving car was owned by a car-sharing service; private
vehicle ownership became an anachronism years ago. File this under shit
happens. Unfortunately, due to prior abdominal surgeries when I was younger, I
suffered uncalculated internal injuries and died from complications eight
months later. The AI decided that little Dick’s life was worth more than mine.
If you think this is the stuff of fantasy and fear, spend
some time talking to people working on autonomous cars. We can reach a
place where all cars are autonomous (that will take decades), but you still can’t
account for pedestrians, cyclists, and animals. The AI for a self-driving car
has to consider all these options because drivers around the world are faced
with the snap decision to run over little Dick, crash head-on into oncoming
traffic to save little Dick, or swerve off the road and hope not to kill anyone
else. To develop a truly autonomous car, it has to make these decisions. Do you
want an AI to decide whether you live or die? Can you say you would never run
over little Dick in front of Jane? You can’t because you’ll never know how you’ll
react until you’re in the crisis – but you have free will to respond. Some will
argue that the AI can make a cold, emotionless calculation faster, which makes
it better than human.
There is why we need theologians and why there is a demand
for them in the development of AI. As our technology defeats, “God,” we are programming
computers to play God. AIs are determining the potential of human beings today,
not just financially – educationally, work achievement potential, but those cold,
perfect instant decisions calculated using thousands of known and proven data
points, are only as accurate as the worst computer programmer who worked on the
project and the quality of the data used.
We see a world turn its back on religion, and a significant minority
screaming louder out of fear as we become more, godless. I am not arguing whether
this is good, bad, or indifferent. The profoundly religious are wringing their
hands on abortion, gay marriage, gender fluidity, and other wedge issues that
have no real intrinsic value beyond dividing us more deeply along political
lines. There is a growing belief in corporate America and among technologists
that computers can replace humans when it comes to making decisions, and the
religious are
almost silent on this matter. We can use AI because computers and artificial
intelligence can do it faster, without emotion, and consider more data points
than a human could ever accomplish. All at the performance level of the worst
programmer to work on the code.
So if we abdicate human decisions to AI, do we extinguish
the essence of what makes us human – free will. Do we risk labeling humans the
second they are born based on thousands of data points on their potential? In
this future world, where no one takes a risk, does a different AI decide that because
Dick suffered trauma at 7-years old seeing a fatal motor vehicle accident,
there is a 23% chance he has PTSD that could impact his work product so that the
Schmectel Corporation won’t hire him? Because Schmectel won’t hire him, he can’t
get into Super Amazing University, but Amazing University will take him? If you
think that is so far fetched one only has to look to China, and their social scores
they are rolling out. Because yet another AI could decide that if Dick
complains about not getting into Super Amazing University, he shouldn’t even
get into Amazing University because the AI predicts there is an 8% chance he
will be disruptive at the University.
We need theologians more than ever. Some amazing minds that
exist today consider
AI to be the biggest threat to humanity as we know it. Where does the human
race go when the singularity
is achieved? If those subroutines and algorithms are flawed, an AI could start
doing a personal assessment on the threats humanity represents and begin making…decisions
to protect itself. Never forget another critical part of being self-aware is a need
for self-preservation. Oh pish-posh, the Three Laws of
Robotics written by Issac Asimov, would prevent that from happening. One
can look to the books I, Robot or 2001 as an example of what happens
when an AI receives conflicting instructions. At least the Matrix will almost
certainly not happen; in reality, we would make terrible
batteries to power the machines.
The headline says it all. We have a classic thermal trough setting up on Tuesday, we cook on Wednesday, and the heat falls apart on Thursday. We started June slightly warmer than normal (two outlier days that were very below normal) and with a typical, June Gloom, pattern. There is almost no chance for rain in the next 10 days (anything past 5 days is throwing darts). There is a tiny chance of some drizzle on Friday right now, but even that is too far off to predict with confidence.
Let’s start with Tuesday. Winds will pick up and be out of the north but then die out around midday. Kirkland is looking at a high of 80 to 83, depending on your location. High hills and right along the water, think 80 degrees, Totem Lake, our hot spot, 83. Tuesday night we will only get down to 60 degrees with a blanket of clouds moving in.
Wednesday is a little complicated. The models are calling for clouds to hold for most of the day and little wind, so this is a weak thermal trough. We’re looking at record-setting temperatures of 86 to 90 degrees in Kirkland. At Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) the official weather forecast is a high of 89 degrees. This would break the previous record of 85. As I’ve written in the past, the computer models don’t do a good job of capturing the impact of thermal troughs in the forecast and usually predict 2 degrees lower than actual, so right now, I’m pretty confident we will see our first “official” 90-degree day on Wednesday. If we get a little more east wind, or the clouds break up sooner, we’ll be hotter. If the cloud blanket is thicker than the models indicate, we’ll be cooler. Stay tuned.
Thursday the thermal trough moves east, but Kirkland will still hit 80 to 83 degrees with a near copy of Tuesday. Friday the winds shift to the west, northwest again and the marine air pushes back in. That gives us our very slight chance for some morning drizzle on Friday, but nothing that will move the needle on our growing rainfall deficit.
Don’t leave your pets in your car. No having the window open isn’t enough. No, I just went in for five minutes doesn’t cut it. On a 90 degree day, the inside of your car can soar to 130 or 140 degrees in minutes. That is death, a horrible, awful death.
I shouldn’t have to say don’t leave your kids in the car — I really shouldn’t have to.
I shouldn’t have to say don’t throw your cigarette butts out the window when you drive because they can start a fire when the air is dry and warm, but it needs repeating.
Area lakes and rivers are still dangerously cold. Please have a talk with your teens if they have swimming, river floats, or boating plans. Jumping into water under 50 degrees can cause a gasp reflex you can’t control, inhale a big mouthful of water, and that’s it. It happens every year, and it has already happened in 2019. These are senseless, preventable deaths.
I have to admit that McDonald’s international menu promotion ongoing in the United States intrigued me. As part of my fitness journey I’ve done some menu hacking at McDonald’s when on road trips or squeezed for time. You can cobble together some delicious and nutritious options.
The technically five items that McDonald’s brought to the United States include the above mentioned Stroopwafel McFlurry from the Netherlands, a Grand McExtreme Bacon Burger from Spain, a Tomato Mozzarella Chicken Sandwich from Canada (both grilled and fried) and Cheesy Bacon Fries from Australia.
The buzz has been around the Stroopwafel McFlurry, which multiple reports put head and shoulders above the other offerings. I’ve been in maintenance for four months now, holding a steady 173 to 179 pounds depending on the day (my basement is 172 and my oh shit is 180, so doing a good job of keeping it between the lines). Surely a a Stroopwafel McFlurry could be made to fit in as a treat on a day accented by heavy salad consumption.
Then I visited the McDonald’s site for nutritional information – what was I signing myself up for? Yikes! First, 650 calories. That isn’t awful with a target calorie burn of 3,000 a day, I can make 650 calories fit. But what kind of calories are they? Eighteen grams of fat, not surprising but 11 grams of saturated fat and a half-gram of trans fat. Any trans fat is bad, and that McFlurry has 85% of the recommended saturated fat for the day. One-hundred-and-eight grams of carbs and 78 grams of that is sugar. That is 28 more grams than the recommended maximum for added sugar for the day. Five different sugars, corn syrup, high fructose corn syrup, glucose syrup, molasses, and “sugar,” are in the list of ingredients. The 310 milligrams of sodium is just enough to light up the tastebuds. This is a pleasure bomb for the brain targeting fat, sugar, and salt receptors.
Just…say…no. I’m not anti-McDonalds (as mentioned above) and I will on occasion visit for breakfast, I also think their drip coffee is downright – passable. When on a highway road trip or squeeze for time, my go to is a large coffee with an extra espresso shot and a single shot of cream. I like my bitter flavors. If you must have a Stroopwafel McFlurry, then at least make a point to have no other added sugar (good luck with that) for the rest of the day. Better yet, find someone to half that with. At least at 39 grams of sugar and 313 calories, it is a bit more acceptable.
My parents were both previously married and had families of their own before they met. The tale is rather sordid. My mother was divorced, leaving by all reports a lousy excuse of a husband. My father was still married at the time and left his wife and three kids behind. To add to the scandal of all of it, I was born out of wedlock, a bastard child born in the same year as the Summer of Love. To amplify the tale of woe, my father’s ex-wife died of cancer shortly after his departure, and the three children were left to fend for themselves.
Through a happier filter, I like to explain that I come from
a family similar to Eight is
Enough. The 1970s sitcom featured a blended family of seven children
from prior marriages, and an eighth child, Nicolas, born from the new union and
much younger than his half-brothers and sisters. As a child, I had three half-brothers
old enough to be my father without raising any eyebrows.
I don’t remember much about Jay, which is likely a good
thing. When I was 4 or 5 years old, he came and visited us with a mission,
apparently, of trying to destroy my father’s new family. Jay has remained
bitter about dad leaving (rightly so) but his actions during that time remain
unforgivable, and through a 2019 filter, criminal. My half-brother Phillip
doesn’t have issues but instead has a lifetime subscription. I will leave it at
that, but I do wish he would find his happiness. Finally, there is my
half-brother Danny, the oldest of the three.
When I was born, Danny was in Vietnam with the Marine Corps in
Explosive Ordinance Disposal (EOD). He was a volunteer, not a draftee, and
spent seven months in-country. He was in Da Nang during the Tet
Offensive, a lousy time and place to be in Vietnam, unless your happiest
with people throwing hand grenades at you daily. He was sent home with medals,
including a purple heart, PTSD, and a lifetime of seizures from his injuries.
I don’t remember much about Danny but what I do remember are
very vivid little clips or snapshots in my mind. The most striking thing I
remember is he had red hair and a lot of it. Learning more about genealogy and
genetics through the years, I suspect the red hair came from the Jewish genes
on my mother’s side. I have this crisp memory of me asking Danny why his hair
was red, and him telling me it was because his hair caught on fire, and it turned
it red when it grew back in.
Another memory I have is we had a painting on a piece of
wood, with the bark of the tree acting as the frame. The oval piece of art was
of Jesus, a lamb in one hand, and appearing to be making the sign of the cross
with the other. I look back now at my very non-religious family, and I
am puzzled on why we had it in the first place. As I type these words, I also find
myself asking, “whatever happened to it?” In the classic European vision of the Messiah,
Jesus was, tall, lean, very white, with a mane of reddish blonde hair. As a
child, I can remember asking why was Danny in that picture and why was he
holding a sheep. In my little mind, he looked like Jesus.
I also remember his car. My father was an engineer, a tool
and die draftsman who eventually ascended to vice president aligned with the
automotive industry, so the love of automobiles is in my blood. Danny had a
1968 Mercury Cougar, blue, with the Ford 289 V8. There is a crystal clear
memory of him at our house on Bailey Road. A little, walk out basement ranch on
the edge of the forest, across from horse pastures. The long driveway had an offshoot
to the left about midway up, and it was a bright, perfect, summer day. Danny was
working on his Cougar, music playing, and the colors, in particular, are a
strong part of the memory. The red house, the deep green grass, the dark blue
car, and his red hair.
Danny was letting me, ehem, help, and he would always call
me, “little buddy.” The scope of my assistance was passing tools, almost
certainly the wrong tools, and being under the car with him. I was so happy to have
this time with my big brother, and I know I looked forward to his visits from
Philadelphia or our visits to the city of my parent’s origin.
I was seven years old when the news came. Danny had been in a motor vehicle accident. Hit by a drunk driver that had run a stop sign, Danny was on his motorcycle riding tandem with a friend. The driver dragged his body almost a quarter-mile is what I seem to remember hearing in the talks and whispers. Danny had been wearing a helmet and head-to-toe leather, so although externally he showed almost no injuries, internally he was, “a dropped watermelon.” The person riding with Danny suffered a broken leg.
We deal with death and children differently today. During
this time, death was something to be obscured from young eyes. I didn’t see
Danny at the hospital, didn’t go to the wake or the funeral. I barely
understood anything going on beyond my mother was inconsolable, my father was
focused, and the rest of the family was tense.
Danny and his brother Phillip got into a huge argument just hours
before his death, and the last words Phillip said were, “I wish you were dead.”
If there is ever a parable to watch what you say, I can think of no better
example.
The echoes of his death carried far and wide. Danny was in a
motorcycle gang called the Dirty Neckers. I guess he found the camaraderie he
must have missed from his military days. As I write these words, I giggle to myself,
taking the child to wake bad, exposing the child to a motorcycle gang,
acceptable. I remember one gang member in particular; his name was moose. Moose
used to play football for the Philadelphia Eagles and was a linebacker. What I
remember about Moose is he was a giant. Forget being a giant to a young child; Moose
would be a giant for anyone. I remember him filling up an entire door frame,
height, and width when he would walk into a room. I also remember he was gentle,
at least in my presence.
Family lore says that the motorcycle gang came as a whole to
call upon my parents, they jammed a wad of money into my mother’s hand, asking
that Danny be buried in something nice. The funeral was being prepared in a
hurry, and my family didn’t have a lot of money, so the gift was accepted.
The friend riding with Danny on that day suffered a broken leg. Twenty years later, to the day, he died at the same intersection.
In this era, there was no Mother’s Against Drunk Driving or
social outrage for being impaired behind the wheel of the car. The man that
killed my brother faced no real consequences legally. On the other hand, he was
a target of the wrath of the Dirty Neckers, and family lore says he left
Philadelphia out of fear for his safety.
My mother has never been the same since. The natural order
of things dictates that a parent should never bury a child, and she has had to
bury two. I will never know, but I speculate that Phillip still carries regret
for the angry words said the day of Danny’s death. Still, my mind drifts to a
warm summer day, fresh cut green grass, a red house, a blue car, and helping my
brother.
Ahhh, the weekend, a time of relaxation and for Puget Sound residents, of supreme importance during the summer months. This weekend forecast is a combination of bad news/good news.
First, the bad news, Friday is going to be a total washout
and it is going to be, dare I say it, cold for June. We won’t see 60 degrees on
Friday, heck the highest, coldest spots in Kirkland may struggle to get to 55
tomorrow. We’ll see rain showers that will be heavy at times, and it isn’t too
far out of the realm of possibilities for Kirkland to hear thunder and see some
hail. To add to the fun, we’ll likely see the heaviest precipitation in the
hours leading up to the evening commute, so pack your patience in the morning
for your drive home.
Now, the good news, after a washout on Friday the rest of
the weekend is looking very nice. Saturday and Sunday will both be completely
average early June days. Saturday will be the cooler, but temperatures will be
near normal in the high 60s. The day will likely start cloudy but get better
toward the afternoon.
Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, getting into the low 70s.
The day will be mostly cloudy, but it will be a marine layer in the morning
that slowly dries out, and the clouds will rise through the day.
For outdoor activity, either Saturday or Sunday is the best
bet, but forget Friday – that is going to be a total loss. Me personally, I’m hoping
for some booms and flashes tomorrow!
United States farmers are facing the worst crisis since the 1980s Soviet grain embargo. Although weather played a factor in the 1980s, the weather is a leading role in 2019. After years of drought impacting much of the country, the nation is now awash in water. Historical amounts of rain have created historic flooding, both in duration and ferocity, devastating farm operations across the United States.
In the first quarter of 2019, 160 farms filed for Chapter 12
bankruptcy, which would put 2019 for 600 plus filings, a 29% increase from last
year. The total number of farms in the United States has been
in steady decline since 2007, dropping about 10% in 11 years (statistics go
to 2018). Total land use for farming in the United States has
also declined during the same period, dropping about 5%.
Crop failures in the United States are at the worst levels
in 30 years, and in many cases, it is because arable land is underwater, or too
soaked to plant. Generally, at this time of the year, 79% of the cropland
dedicated to soybean production would be planted – today it stands at 39%. For
corn, the average would be 96% – today it is less than 65%. Farmers are facing
a now or never choice this week across the nation. File crop insurance claims
for, “prevented to plant,” and accept about 50 cents on the dollar on what
would already be meager profits for doing nothing, or roll the dice and plant
anyway. If they plant and the crops don’t provide a yield, they could file for
federal aid or insurance. That assumes that the farmer has coverage in the
first place.
This crisis has been years in the making through a
combination of climate change, market conditions, and the political landscape.
In the 2000s, ethanol became mandated in US gasoline. Small ethanol producers
were bought up by large corporations, and farmers shifted to corn to sell to
the ethanol industry. The shifting of corn to ethanol production reduced the overall
supply of other grains and raised the cost of feedstock for farm animals. The demand
for beef and pork dropped due to rising prices. At the same time, rBST was
sending milk production through the roof, creating an oversupply. Dairy farmers
sent their herds to slaughter and gave up, while pork and beef producers sent
their animals to market at a younger age.
Fast forward a few years later, and with smaller dairy and
livestock herds, demand for grains for feedstock plummeted creating a vast oversupply.
The price of corn, soy, and wheat collapsed, gutting the profits reaped earlier
this decade. The Obama Administration block the planned E15 ethanol mandate for
all US gasoline, and the Trump Administration continues to block the rule. The expected
increase in ethanol production never happened, adding to more oversupply and
further depressing prices.
Add in a buying embargo by China for US soybeans, tariffs, a
global oversupply of milk and milk products, US farmers were already reeling.
Congress playing a game of chicken for disaster aid didn’t help matters, and
the heartland of the United States will inevitably need more support going
forward.
The weather patterns producing this historical rain event
have eased, but there is still a tremendous amount of water that needs to flow
through these river basins for weeks to come. All of this spells bad news for
Louisiana, where the increased freshwater flow will accelerate land loss in the
Mississippi Delta, and hurt oyster farms and harvesters. The decrease in
salinity in the gulf lowers oyster yields.
As for the ongoing flooding, in some cases, entire farms and
communities have likely been lost forever. The tangle of levees in many of
these regions is managed by independent cooperatives and local governments,
which don’t have the money or resources to update or maintain them. The Army Corps
of Engineers has already channeled and tamed the Arkansas, Missouri, and
Mississippi Rivers, so there is little left they can do beyond build dams and
levees they manage higher. Once a levee is overtopped, the flow of the water
eats away it, requiring major repair, if not a full replacement. If a levee blows
out at a middle point, the rushing water chews away at both sides. In many
cases, the strategy is to wait for the rain to stop and wait for the water to recede
– that could still be months away in some places.
As for the average American, in the short term, you can
expect lower prices at your grocery store for some commodities that aren’t Heche
en Mexico. Later this year as the full impact of the crop failures are felt,
prices will likely go up. Corn plays a huge role in the American food chain, as
a feedstock for farm animals that impacts meat, egg and dairy prices, as a grain
for cereals, and for corn syrup production as a sweetener. It also will likely
increase costs at the pump (more likely it will blunt the slow decline we start
to see after the Fourth of July holiday weekend), with the gasoline you put in
your car requiring 10% Ethanol content per federal law.
The impact of climate change continues to play out as
predicted in models that go back to the 1980s. The weather is not climate, and
the climate is not the weather. Single weather events don’t serve as proof a
change to this planet, but when taken together in aggregate, it is evident something
is wrong.
Fruit plays more than a supporting role in this easy creation
We’ve entered that time of year when fresh local produce is plentiful. If you’re dealing with Weighty Matters, it is an excellent time to explore new options for a quick dinner. If you think salad requires lettuce, think again!
I’ve always loved putting fruit in a salad during the summer months. Berries and salad go hand-in-hand, along with apple and pear in the fall and winter. Tonight fruit played more than a supporting role and was almost on parity with the vegetables.
I hate the term superfood as I think the idea that food has superpowers is BS, but to make the Google SEO gods happy, this salad contains the power of healing superfoods! I prepared this summer salad using items that we already had in the fridge – so there was a degree of, “use this up or else,” in deciding the ingredients. Although we have a mountain of fresh lettuce growing in our garden right now, to make this work, I had to go sans greens. A combination of fruits, vegetables, and proteins provides a man-sized amount of food that can satisfy even a large appetite. At an estimated 421 calories per serving, with dressing, this satisfies, provides many nutrients, and is a caloric bargain.
Oh, and if you want to go vegetarian, swap out the chicken for some firm tofu.
Malcontented Summer Salad
Salad
3 pearl tomatoes or other sweet/small tomatoes, quartered
2 Persian cucumbers, sliced
3 Sweet mini bell peppers, sliced
2 apricots, pitted and diced
6 strawberries, hulled and sliced
½ cup blueberries
1 ounce Greek feta cheese (I used Athenos fat-free), crumbled
or diced
4 ounces boneless skinless chicken breast, grilled or sous vide cooked, diced
Dressing
4 tablespoons non-fat Greek yogurt
2 tablespoons fig infused balsamic vinegar
Salt to taste
Directions
In a large bowl, combine the first 8 ingredients and gently toss together.
In a separate bowl, combine the non-fat Greek yogurt and fig infused balsamic vinegar and salt to taste.
Pour the dressing over the mixed salad and toss lightly to coat ingredients.
Serve with bread or crackers (I used Finn Crisp Rye Crackers
– 4 – for another 80 calories).
Salad: 361 calories
Dressing: 60 calories
Servings: 1
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