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Washington hospitals are on the brink as COVID cases spiral upward

Editor’s Note: An early version of this story reported that the first Omicron case detected in the United States has been changed from Dec. 15 to Nov. 15.

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH) reported the 7 day moving average for new COVID cases had jumped to 1,047.9 over the weekend, obliterating previous records. There were 1,773 people hospitalized with COVID across Washington on Sunday, just shy of the previous record set on Sep. 6, 2021.

With an estimated 242 new COVID-related hospitalizations a day, hospitals in the Evergreen State are on the brink of running out of beds and staff. The I-5 corridor from the Canada border to the Columbia River has the highest case rates in Washington, sparked by several super spreader events in Thurston and Pierce Counties on Dec. 4.

COVID cases have exploded in Eastern Washington, including Spokane, Yakima, and Moses Lake. New cases are forecasted to peak in King County by the end of this week but are expected to continue to surge in Eastern Washington.

The updated IHME forecast model is catastrophic for Washington, projecting 3,189 acute care and 804 ICU patients hospitalized with COVID by Feb. 4. Malcontent News estimates there are 375 staffed acute care and 95 ICU beds available in Washington state, with a coming surge of 2,000 more patients in less than a month.

The Washington State Hospital Association made dire predictions last week. Dr. Francis Riedo, medical director for infection control and prevention at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland, told reporters that the state has “never been closer” to moving to crisis standards of care.

In the same briefing, Dr. John Lynch, medical director of Harborview Medical Center’s infection control program, said that UW Medicine and Harborview Medical Center had more COVID patients under care than at any previous point in the epidemic.

The situation is already dire for Puget Sound hospitals, will more than 97 percent of acute care beds occupied. King County Public Health reported 255 new COVID hospitalizations from Friday to Sunday – a rate of a new hospitalization once every 28 minutes. Hospitalizations in King County have surged 110 percent in a week as new cases skyrocket.

Earlier projections based on case data from South Africa and the United Kingdom estimated that King County hospitalization rates would be by 20% to 30% from the previous Delta wave. Projections reduced the percentage of COVID cases that resulted in hospitalization from 4.7% to 1.14%. Based on data from the first week of January, the rate is almost double – 2.13% – driving hospitalizations to a higher level than previously forecasted.

EvergreenHealth in Kirkland reported 44 hospitalized COVID patients, including one pediatric patient and another four in Monroe. A majority, 70 percent, were hospitalized due to COVID. The remainder is hospitalized for other reasons and co-infected with coronavirus. Five patients are fully vaccinated with boosters, including one in intensive care.

On Monday night, Seattle Children’s Hospital advised parents that its four walk-in urgent care clinics would not accept patients without an appointment due to the unprecedented patient load.

The Washington State Medical Association appealed to Gov. Jay Inslee to declare a crisis and deploy the national guard to support area hospitals. Previous options, including stopping elective surgeries, limiting day procedures, and “boarding” patients in emergency departments, are already being done.

“The time has come to admit that stopping electives and non-urgent care is not enough. We must declare the crisis that our health system is in,” the Jan. 6 letter stated. Cassie Sauer, the Washington State Hospital Association CEO, also signed the letter.

Unlike Idaho, Montana, and Alaska, which had to use crisis standards of care last fall, Washington state will not allow a single facility to move to the emergency protocols. The declaration would come from the state and only occur after all possible options to extend services were exhausted. Under crisis standards of care, patients could be denied care based on need, survival chances, and available resources. Washington developed computer software with Massachusetts and Wisconsin to determine who would receive care. Last week, Oregon announced it was adopting the same computer program.

The physical, mental, and emotional toll of two years of a COVID crisis has decimated the ranks of hospital workers across the country. Omicron is highly contagious and has significant vaccine escape, resulting in hospital workers being sickened. As hospitalizations have surged in the first ten days of January, the number of staffed beds available has slowly declined.

On Thursday, leadership at MultiCare, which runs 11 hospitals across Washington state, reported they had moved to crisis staffing standards in Western Washington. The standard, announced by the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on Dec. 23, can require workers who are sick with COVID to continue to work if necessary to continue to provide patient care.

The Omicron variant arrived in the United States on Nov. 15 and has shattered all previous records for new cases, daily new hospital admissions, and total hospitalizations. One model projects that nation will face another 300,000 hospitalized with COVID by the middle of February, an impossible task for all existing hospital resources.

On Dec. 26, Malcotent News forecasted Washington state hospitals would reach crisis standards of care by Jan. 15, without significant national guard support or FEMA intervention.

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BREAKING: King County residents are urged to prepare for the largest COVID wave to date

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) A forecast created by Trevor Bedford, Ph.D., an Associate Professor, Biostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology Program Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, projects that King County will reach record levels by Dec. 22.

In a press conference on Friday, Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, Health Officer, Public Health Seattle & King County said, “The Omicron outbreak we’ve been talking about is no longer theoretical. It is real and it’s here.”

Dr. Duchin shared the current situation in King County, adding that UW Medicine is finding 40% of tests are positive for Omicron and new COVID cases are up 50% since Thanksgiving.

Dr. Santiago Neme, MD, MPH of UW Medicine expressed concern over the number of patients already in Washington hospitals. “Our numbers for COVID infected patients have decreased,” Dr. Neme, said, “but we have been operating at a full or over full capacity for several months in many areas of the state.”

“Any increase in hospital rates or utilization will be pretty challenging for us and very concerning.”

Dr. Duchin added that In King County, hospitals are already caring for twice as many patients as before the start of the Delta wave in August.

Bedford told reporters that the Seattle-Bellevue area would be one of the first cities in the United States to experience widespread Omicron infections and the area was only “a few days” behind London. “New York City is ahead of Seattle and Rhode Island is as well,” he said. But he added this may be due to Seattle having “great S gene drop out data.” S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) is a faster way to identify a likely Omicron variant infection from a positive COVID test. Genomic sequencing is required to make an absolute determination.

Dr. Alexander L. Greninger M.D., Ph.D., M.S., M.Phil., assistant director of the UW Medicine Clinical Virology Laboratory told reporters that sequencing has a 5 to 7 day lag time.

“The number of samples coming into the labs are as high as we’ve seen during the pandemic, yesterday and the day before,” Dr. Greninger added. The UW Medicine Virology Lab has sequenced about 100 samples, and “98 or 99” were positive for Omicron.

The model was created using genomic sequencing data of positive COVID tests, and information on transmission rates from other countries such as the United Kingdom and South Africa. Bedford estimated Omicron cases were doubling in King County every 2.2 days, which is supported by reports from the University of Washington Department of Virology. If the forecast is accurate there could be 2,100 Omicron cases on top of 500 Delta cases in King County by Wednesday. That would far exceed the record number of daily new cases during the fifth wave, and the doubling would continue every one to three days into January.

“Omicron is an airborne disease like Delta and spreads easier indoors, and is a lot more contagious,” Dr. Duchin said, adding, “We do not yet have a clear picture on severity.”

To prepare for the coming wave the message was clear, “The single most important thing you can do is to get vaccinated and boosted even if you’ve had a prior infection,” said Dr. Duchin, “but vaccination alone won’t stop the spread of Omicron.”

King County Health said we need to take advantage of as many layers of protection as we can. That includes wearing tight-fitting N-95, KN-95, or KN-94 masks indoors. The public should avoid crowded indoor spaces, especially if people are unmasked and there is poor air circulation. If anyone feels sick, they should get tested for COVID and stay home to help blunt the spread.

“If you do gather please do safely as possible,” Dr. Duchin appealed. “Limit the number and size of gatherings. Avoid crowded indoor spaces. Do a rapid test on the day of the gathering. Gatherings will be better in large outdoor places or indoor with open windows and doors.”

Dr. Duchin also recommends avoiding travel, especially to areas with high COVID transmission rates. He added that King County has not closed the door on further public health safety measures, but does not plan to add additional measures beyond the guidelines already in place.

The panel stressed that the severity of illness caused by Omicron is still not known. “My read on severity is still difficult – a large portion of infections are both breakthrough and reinfections,” Bedford told reporters. “It may well be the case that Omicron is intrinsically less severe than Delta, but we don’t know. What matters is how many cases do we get and what fraction of those cases require hospitalizations. That is going to be a very large number of cases, severity is not clear enough to know if it will be very bad, bad, or not so bad.”

When asked about breakthrough cases among the vaccinated, Dr. Greninger said, “Moderna and Pfizer are significantly better than Johnson & Johnson.”

“Serious infection is the most important,” added Dr. Duchin. “Meaningful protection against serious infection, hospitalization, and death will protect many of us in vaccinated communities.”

In King County, 160,000 people 12 and older remain unvaccinated and 250,000 have only had a single dose. According to the Washington State Department of Health, about one-third of fully vaccinated King County residents have received a booster dose.

Public and private employers were urged to start contingency planning now to prepare for staffing shortages. “We need to prepare for a large wave of people becoming ill quickly together,” added Dr. Duchin. “We will try to get guidance so we can get people back to work as soon as possible but plan for ‘large scale’ absenteeism.

Public testing sites for COVID will remain open through the holiday season except on Christmas and New Year’s Day. When asked what to do if you need a test on Christmas or New Year’s, Dr. Duchin recommended using a home test versus going to a hospital emergency department.

When asked about the rest of the United States, Bedford didn’t provide an optimistic picture. “Expect things to light up across the United States shortly – first in the cities and then rural areas.”

Looking ahead to the future, Bedford shared that the models he created in the fall have changed significantly due to the Omicron variant.

“Omicron makes things ‘significantly worse.’ I’m quite worried in nine months we will have both Omicron and Delta circulating,” adding, “Omicron will not get us out of this.”

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BREAKING: 3 lab-confirmed Omicron variant COVID cases in Washington

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health (WSDoH), in partnership with the UW Medicine Virology Laboratory, has confirmed a total of three cases of omicron variant in Thurston County, Pierce County, and King County. The patients range in age from 20 to 39, two men, one woman.

The patients are:

  • a man in his thirties from Thurston County,
  • a man in his twenties from Pierce County, and
  • a woman in her twenties from King County.

Confirmation came in midday Saturday, and officials were still in the process of notifying the patients.

The WSDoH did not have information on their condition, travel history, or vaccination status. The samples were collected using PCR tests between Nov. 29 and Dec. 1 and were submitted for genomic sequencing.

Sequencing has been prioritized for anyone with travel history or close contact with a confirmed case.

“We knew that it was a matter of time before omicron was sequenced in our state and so we were anticipating this very news,” said Umair A. Shah, MD, MPH, Secretary of Health. “We strongly urge people to get vaccinated and get their boosters as soon as possible to maximize their level of protection from any variant.”

“Even with a highly mutated virus-like omicron, we are not going back to square one of the pandemic,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, Health Officer, Public Health – Seattle & King County. “Omicron may pose new challenges that we will need to respond to, but compared to the early days of the pandemic, we know much more about COVID-19, and we’re better prepared for it. We know layered protections work together to maximally reduce risk, and that will continue to be the case for delta and for omicron if that becomes a dominant strain circulating in our community.”

“We suspected that the omicron variant was circulating in our region, and now our laboratory has confirmed the first three cases in Washington state by viral genome sequencing in the last 24 hours. Throughout the pandemic, it’s been a huge team effort by the UW Medicine Virology Laboratory, requiring development and implementation of several diagnostic and sequencing assays to detect and confirm the variety of COVID-19 variants that have surfaced in Washington state,” said Dr. Geoffrey Baird, chair of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology at UW School of Medicine. To date, the laboratory has tested approximately 3.8 million COVID-19 samples.

A study about the transmissibility of the omicron variant was released from a multinational group of researchers on Friday. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, indicated that omicron is two times to three times more transmissible than the prevalent delta variant. Researchers estimate that the Rt, called, “r-naught,” is R12 to R17, which is equivalent to measles. The Rt for delta is R6.0 and for the AY.4.2 delta variant is R6.6.

Another study released on Thursday indicated that people relying on disease acquired immunity are up to 240% more likely to be infected from the omicron variant versus the beta or delta variants.

The CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna stated their vaccines would remain highly effective at preventing severe COVID and hospitalizations. Researchers are still one to two weeks away from preliminary information on if there will be significant vaccine escape with the omicron variant.

Public health officials are recommended for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated and for the 2.2 million Washingtonians eligible for a booster to get one. Washington state continues to have an indoor mask mandate.

Individuals who are experiencing COVID-like symptoms or have a known close contact should get tested. If you have traveled or know you had close contact with a traveler and get a positive test result from a home test, you should follow up with a PCR test to aid in tracking the spread of the omicron COVID variant.

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COVID cases surge 48% in King County as officials ask summer travelers to use caution

[SEATTLE, Wash] – (MTN) King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin announced that King County COVID cases have increased 48% in the last week as he asked for residents to apply caution during summer travel and mask up when indoors.

The Delta variant has grown to represent 86% of cases in King County with 83 cases per 100,000. Most cases are among the unvaccinated according to Dr. Duchin with residents 18 to 49 years old now the largest age group infected. Officials expect King County to move to high transmission per the CDC, in the next update.

In the last seven days, 62 people have been admitted into King County hospitals with COVID representing a three-fold increase. Currently, one King County resident is being admitted to a hospital with COVID every 2-1/2 hours and the average age of someone hospitalized with COVID has dropped 10 years since January 1.

“Regional hospitals are full and are concerned about being overwhelmed if there are more cases,” said Dr. Duchin, adding that hospitals are “very busy,” The challenge facing hospitals presently isn’t COVID. “One of the major challenges hospitals are facing is the inability to discharge patients who don’t need further hospitalization but can’t find a bed in a long-term care facility.” Dr. Duchin indicated that this was a statewide problem.

For the 30 day period from June 22 to July 21, 88% of COVID patients who were hospitalized and 87% of COVID-related deaths in King County were unvaccinated. COVID cases are, “half of the spring peak and one-quarter of the winter peak,” he added, and “vaccinate people are at much lower risk for hospitalization and death…compared to those unvaccinated.”

“Those unvaccinated are five times more likely to test positive for COVID, are 11 times more likely to be hospitalized,” Duchin added.

Concern over Delta appears to be moving some people with vaccine hesitancy to take action. There has been a 14% increase in people getting vaccinations from the low-point in mid-July. King County also has achieved 70% vaccination of residents 16 and older in all health districts, including South King County. Sixty-five percent of all residents, regardless of age are now vaccinated and 76% of residents 12 and old are fully vaccinated.

On the issue of breakthrough cases, Dr. Duchin said this. “Breakthrough cases do not meet mean vaccine failure and no vaccine is 100% protective. Vaccines prevent serious infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Less than one-tenth-of-one-percent of King County residents who are vaccinated have tested positive for COVID.”

With the start of school around the corner, Dr. Duchin deferred to the Washington State Department of Health, and the guidelines they released yesterday.

Officials stressed the continued need to wear masks in, “indoor public spaces like restaurants grocery stores gyms entertainment venues.” Additional guidance is that masks should be of a good quality, tight-fitting, and properly worn. Dr. Duchin mentioned the N95 Project as a trusted source for N95 masks. A check on the website showed that a 50 count box of United States manufactured N95 masks are available for $40.00.

With the peak of the summer vacation season here, Dr. Duchin asked for residents to consider their travel plans and the amount of risk they are taking. “The most important message is vaccines are the most effective way but not the only way to protect yourself. The most important single factor to reduce your risk of getting COVID is reduce your exposure risk.” The recommendation was to consider the current situation in the location you’re visiting and the kind of activities you have planned. Nationally, health officials are concerned about the looming Sturgis Motorcycle rally, and the 700,000 visitors expected to visit the town.

Dr. Duchin provided new guidance on who should get tested for COVID and when.

  • All people who experience COVID symptoms, regardless of vaccination status, should get tested
  • If you’re exposed to COVID you should get tested 3 to 5 days after regardless of your vaccination statusI
  • If you test positive, even if you’re asymptomatic, you need to isolate for 10 days

King County and a number of medical facilities continue to provide COVID testing across King County.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

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24 days later, King County is asking you to mask up – again

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[SEATTLE, Wash] – (MTN) With COVID cases climbing in King County and 90% of detected COVID cases are “variants of concern,” King County health officer Dr. Jeff Duchin is recommending to mask up once again.

“I know this is frustrating and disappointing to many,” said Duchin. “It certainly is to me. I didn’t want to be in this position. And I acknowledge that the changing communication on masking has been a real problem nationally.”

King County is one of the most vaccinated counties in the country, where 80.3% of residents 12 and over have at least one dose of a COVID vaccine. Despite those numbers, 700,000 residents of King County remain unvaccinated including the young and the immunocompromised.

On June 28, the county was logging 56 new COVID cases a day. The count has climbed to 171, a 294% increase. Test positivity had dropped to as low as 1.2% but is now up to 4.1%. That is still within an acceptable range and indicates adequate testing, but the sharp increase in just 3 weeks is concerning to health officials.

Statewide, 9.4% of all ICU patients have COVID, moving closer to the 10% red light metric.

Hospitals in King County are near capacity – but not due to COVID

The Washington State Department of Health is reporting that 90.8% of all acute care beds and 88.7% of ICU beds are occupied in King County. Normally during this time of the year utilization would be 60% to 80%. As of July 22, only 2.6% of acute care beds and 5.4% of ICU beds have COVID patients. The problem? Area hospitals are overflowing with accident and trauma patients and patients that had elective surgeries delayed last year are moving through the system.

To the south in Thurston County, there are so many traumas and accidents 911 and ambulances are overwhelmed creating service delays.

Growing concern over Delta, Lambda, and Gamma variants

The Delta variant, B1671.2 from India, now makes up 83% of all cases in the United States. Two different studies found that Delta produces 1000% to 1200% more virus load than the original COVID strain. Neither study has been peer reviewed, however, both independent reports reached similar conclusions. The variant is 200% to 225% more transmissible than the original variant and has an R0 estimated to be 3.5 to 4.0 among unvaccinated populations according to Yale University.

Lambda has been identified in approximately 700 patients in the United States in the last 14 days. The South American variant appears to be less transmissible than Delta, so it likely won’t get established within the population. In South America, Lambda is over 9% fatal, but researchers believe this may be to lower quality healthcare, and only the sickest patients getting tested.

In Illinois, Gamma is the dominant variant with cases detected in Texas and Washington. According to a CDC study released this week, Gamma is showing a “strikingly high attack rate among persons vaccinated.” The report added, “Such a low vaccine efficiency against infection by the Gamma variant was not expected.”

Skeptic Republican leaders appeal to get vaccinated

In the last week, Steve Scalise (LA-R), House Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY-R), and Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (AL-R) have appealed for constituents to get vaccinated. Alabama has the lowest vaccination rate in the county while in Louisiana, hospitals are becoming overwhelmed.

Delta, Lambda, and Gamma all appear to break through the currently available vaccinations to varying degrees. However, data indicates that almost all breakthrough cases is asymptomatic or mild. In June, the National Institute of Health reported over 99% of all COVID-related deaths were among unvaccinated patients.

According to the White House, vaccination rates are starting to increase in some of the states hardest hit by the fourth wave.