Tag Archives: Trump

Final election forecast

The first in-person election day polls will open in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, in seven hours. With over 92-million early and mail-in ballots already submitted, 67% of all the votes of 2016, it is likely that in-person voting will play a smaller role in 2020.

Reading the polls feels like a fool’s errand this year due to a litany of variables. A record number of new voters, young voters, and voters participating in the general election that did not participate in the primaries make identifying trends harder. Earlier voters cast their ballots when polls showed a wider race, so it is hard to gauge how much impact the tightening polls have.

Trump is the first President in modern history to never have his approval rating go above 50%, sans one day in 2017, where he polled at 50.1%. Biden has never tracked under 50% support in any poll going back to hypothetical Trump v Biden surveys 19 months ago. Although the race is tightening, it isn’t close to 2016; no third-party candidates are tracking 5% to 7% support, and undecideds are less than 4% of all voters. The day of exit polls will be problematic because so many people have already voted. Then there are the Trafalgar polls, which show a Trump win. Does anyone remember Zogby and their forecast for a Bush (43) win?

In our analysis of all available data, we continue to forecast that Trump has a narrow path to the White House, but it will be like trying to thread a needle with your eyes closed. Donald Trump has to win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Without all four of these states, he has no clear path to the White House.

If we look at these four states, Trump will likely win Georgia and Florida, and has a better than a coin toss chance of winning North Carolina. If we apply a Hilary Clinton 2016 grade polling error in Pennsylvania, Trump still can’t win. If we use a Hilary Clinton 2016 grade polling error in Pennsylvania and say Trump’s lawyers throw out one-percent of all ballots (a significant number), and all of them are Biden ballots, Trump still can’t win. The same goes for Wisconsin. If we apply a Hilary Clinton grade polling error and throw out 1% of all Biden votes, Trump still can’t win.

I don’t consider Nevada a battleground, as this is behind Biden’s firewall. Biden will win the following battleground states/districts:

  • Maine District 2
  • Pennsylvania
  • Arizona
  • Michigan
  • Wisconsin
  • Arizona

Trump will win the following battleground states/districts:

  • North Carolina
  • Georgia
  • Florida
  • Ohio
  • Iowa
  • Texas
  • Nebraska District 2

In our final assessment, we believe Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States, with a 290 – 248 victory.

Election night 2020 coverage

Malcontent News will be providing continuous coverage of the 2020 Presidential election across all of our channels. David “The Malcontent,” Renee, Sarah, Ty, and Boomer, along with a team of 15 moderators, admins, and researchers will be live from Studio 2 starting at 3:50 PM PST.

We’ll be providing analysis and tracking the presidential and Senate races. In addition, as we wait for results, we’ll do replays of key events in Seattle over the last five months such as June 6 on the Western Barricade, the August 16 SPOG protest, and the Labor Day SPOG protest. We will play the mini-documentary Inequality In America: The Challenge of a Generation as well as the full interview with Eleanor Jones, and a replay of the Elaine Simons interview discussing the death of her foster son Jesse Sarey. We will also do replays of Classic Elisha from August 9 and the Marshall Law Band from October 26.

Our broadcast day is planned to continue until 1:00 AM PST when the state of Hawaii closes polls. We will have to go off the air briefly at 11:45 PM due to the limitations of YouTube, Facebook, and Periscope, which allow streams for no longer than 8 hours.

How can I watch and follow

We will be using all of our channels on election night.

  • Live blog on Malcontent News – this will include our Twitch live feed from Studio 2
  • Live feed and comments on Facebook
  • Live feed and comments on Twitch
  • Live feed on YouTube
  • Live feed on Periscope
  • Updates and results via Twitter
  • Updates and results via Instagram

How we will call state and senate elections

We will be aggregating information from the Secretary of State from each state and the District of Columbia, as well as monitoring the Associated Press. The Associated Press has committed to not calling a state for a candidate until there is no possible, legal way for the front runner to be defeated in that state. We will provide our analysis on where we think a county or state vote count will land, including commentary that an election call should be made soon, but we will not make an independent decision before the Associated Press. We also will not discuss the vote count in states in multiple timezones, most critically, Florida, Michigan, and Texas, until all polls are closed in the respective state.

How we will moderate channels

We will have moderators across all four of our broadcast channels on election night, a first for Malcontent News to provide a moderated environment for bipartisan discussion and respectful discord. Conspiracy theories, spam, and hateful comments will be deleted. Moderators plan to operate with a light touch for the night, but that depends on you, the viewer. If channels get brigaded we will increase moderation. If our capacity becomes overrun we will disable the on-screen chat.

How we will cover potential unrest

If there is widespread unrest, violence, or voter intimidation on election day, we have arrangements with some independent journalists to transmit their streams. We will switch to available streams if and when they become available. We also have an agreement with a local affiliate to use their coverage and news stories, and if needed for local coverage of unrest specifically, we will move to their channel. Given that the mainstream media has been harassed by all sides, it is unlikely they will have better coverage than our independent journalist community. If further, unthinkable action happens, such as the suspension of the election, domestic terrorist attacks on government buildings, or an announcement of the invalidation of the election by the federal government, we’re in the same uncharted water as you.

How we will cover candidates statements of victory or concession

We will go to C-Span as part of our coverage for candidate victory or concession statements.

How we will cover post-election

We will be providing coverage of any protests, events, rallies, or demonstrations as our capacity allows in the days after the election.

Trump Makes proclamation on “National Day of Remembrance for Americans Killed by Illegal Aliens”

The White House released more election red meat for a segment of his base who find racist language appealing. The “Proclamation on National Day of Remembrance for Americans Killed by Illegal Aliens” released Friday is full of loaded race-baiting and misleading language.

“Our Nation solemnly stands alongside the mothers and fathers who are no longer able to see their children grow up and have families of their own and for the sons and daughters who have lost a parent or loved one at the hands of someone who never should have been inside our country in the first place.”

Donald Trump – President of the United States

Viewed as a slap in the face by the Mexican community November 1 is also Dia De Los Muertos holiday and the day picked by the Trump Administration to recognize National Day of Remembrance for Americans Killed by Illegal Aliens.

Dia De Los Muertos, literally translated to The Day of the Dead, blends pre-Columbian Mesoamerica and Aztec rituals, with European pagan and the Catholic Church All Souls Day. The celebration honors deceased family members. Celebrants believe the border between the spirit world and the real world dissolve one day a year. The souls of the dead return to be among the living to feast, drink, play music, and dance with those they loved. To honor their presence, family members treat the souls as cherished guests leaving favorite foods at their gravesites and gifts and offerings on an ofrenda, or offering.

This isn’t the first time that the Trump administration has picked a date to coincide with significant events in the Black, Indigenous, and Persons of Color (BIPOC) communities. Early this year, Trump initially picked June 19, also known as Juneteenth, for his Tulsa, Oaklahoma rally. That rally turned into a superspreader event for COVID-19. The proclamation is also riddled with falsehoods and exaggerated facts. The statement there is 400 miles of new fence along the Mexico border is factually accurate, but almost all of that is a replacement fence that was budgeted before Trump took office.

Trump did his photo opportunity at Saint John’s Episcopal Church on June 1, the same day Black Wall Street was burned and hundreds killed in Tulsa, Oklahoma in 1921. The administration initially picked June 19, also known as Juneteenth, as the date for a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The event was moved after pressure from the GOP and Oklahoma officials.

The declaration has echoes of fascist regimes such as Nazi Germany, where Adolph Hitler made similar proclamations against Jews and would publish the list of Jewish crimes in state-owned newspapers.

David Obelcz contributed to this story.

Penultimate national election analysis

Election Day starts in less than 77 hours. Barring some significant event over the weekend, this will be our penultimate election analysis. A series of fresh polls have come out at the national and state level, showing little change in the race. President Trump is not speaking, tweeting, or positioning himself as a man confident he can win on Tuesday.

Firewall States: We consider firewall states as the state on the FiveThirtyEight Snake Chart as having a 90% chance, or better, of tipping to a candidate. All of the states above that state (Trump) or below that state (Biden) are not battleground states.

Trump’s firewall state of South Carolina remains unchanged. Biden’s firewall state has changed from Wisconsin to Nevada. This change happened because Biden’s position has strengthened in both states.

Battleground States: We consider the following as battleground states in order of their lean from Trump to Biden:

State or District

538

RCP

Malcontent
News

Texas

Trump +2

Trump +2.3

Trump 

Iowa 

Trump +0.7

Biden +1.2

Toss Up

Ohio 

Trump +0.6

Tie

Toss Up 

Georgia 

Biden +1.0

Biden +0.8

Toss Up

Maine 2nd District

Biden +0.2

Not Tracked

Biden 

North Carolina

Biden +2.1

Biden +1.2

Toss Up 

Florida

Biden +2.1

Biden +1.2

Toss Up

Arizona

Biden +2.8

Tie

Toss Up 

Nebraska 2nd District

Biden +4.5

Not Tracked 

Biden 

Pennsylvania

Biden +5.1 

Biden +3.6

Biden 

As we head into the final weekend before the election, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona are the critical states for both candidates. It is worth noting that Trump carried all of these states in 2016. Although Real Clear Politics considers Wisconsin and Minnesota as battleground states, data indicates neither state is in play. We have consistently said that where New Hampshire goes, Maine District 2 goes and data indicates that the district is strengthening for Biden. 

There are some other election and polling trends worth noting. More early voting ballots have been submitted in Texas than all the votes received in the 2016 election. Iowa has announced they are closing 267 polling sites, mostly in the metro-Des Moines area, due to COVID. There are concerns this change will disenfranchise Democratic voters in the blue-leaning city. Additionally, the Supreme Court has decided that North Carolina and Pennsylvania will need to accept ballots postmarked by election day. However, the courts have also decided that Pennsylvania can’t start counting the over 2-million early ballots it received until election day. As a precursor to election chaos, over 230 election-related cases have been filed in federal courts across the country.

On Tuesday, Trump suggested that people could change their votes they’ve already submitted, creating the topic to trend on Google. A 45 state analysis indicated that only a handful of states allow “spoiled ballots” and only under certain conditions. Further, the window to change a ballot has closed in every state except New Hampshire.  

But what if the polls are wrong like in 2016. We’ve covered previously on who 2020 is different; most critically, Biden has consistently polled higher than Hilary Clinton did in 2016. There has not been the same indication of deflating poll numbers that battered Clinton in 2016, and we’re past the window of a Comney memo grade surprise. If the same polling error in 2016 of about 3% were to happen in 2020, Biden would still win based on all available data. 

We believe the more significant question is what President Trump will do post-election. Suppose Trump moves to invalidate the election or manipulate electors. In that case, it will almost certainly be met with protests. Federal, state, and local police officials and business leaders are very worried about post-election violence. In numerous communities, both small and large, businesses have already started boarding up windows and taking other defensive measures.  

Neither candidate nor their supporters should be thinking the election is already over. Fivethirtyeight forecasts an 89% chance Biden will win the national election. By our analysis, the race has improved for Biden to 308 vs. 230, Biden win. Real Clear Politics no toss-up map also shows the race improving for Biden. As of this writing, they are indicating the final results of 345 vs. 193, Biden.

National election tightens as both candidates get bad news

The national election, which will serve as a performance review for Donald Trump, is seven days away, with fresh polls providing worry for both parties. As of Tuesday morning, over 66-million Americans had already cast their 2020 ballots – almost equal to 50% of all ballots cast in 2020.

Bad news for team Trump came out of Iowa and Georgia. In Iowa, Trump hasn’t had a reliable poll indicating he has a lead since October 11. In Georgia, a recent series of polls are showing a dead heat. 

Although Texas moved for our forecast firewall state after a weekend of bad news for Trump, the polls have stabilized. The second-largest electoral college haul hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996. 

For Biden, the race in North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona have tightened. All three states are now polling within the margin of error. If the 2016 polling eras repeat, all three states will tip to Trump. In contrast, Pennsylvania still holds a safe margin for Biden. In contrast, Biden has firmed up his grip in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota, while Nevada remains the firewall state. 

Analysts and pundits have spilled a lot of digital ink the last few days, attempting to read between the lines. The hateful rhetoric, COVID impacting in-person voting, and less interest in third-party candidates have made projecting 2016 onto 2020 a fool’s errand. There are some knowns and discovered factors that can be projected onto the numbers:

  • People waiting to vote on election day favors undecided and younger voters; undecided voters will likely break to Trump while younger voters are favoring Biden
  • Hilary Clinton in 2016 never polled above 50%; in contrast, Biden has consistently polled above 50% and held an 8% to 11% aggregate lead over Trump through October
  • 2016 third-party candidates Johnson (Libertarian) and Stein (Green Party) carried about 5% of the vote in both Michigan and Wisconsin; none of the third-party candidates have momentum in 2020 
  • With so many early ballots cast, an October surprise such as the 2016 Comey Memo would likely have less impact on either candidate
  • Polls in 2016 were off about 3%, but it wasn’t even across all states – repeating that same margin of error, Biden safely would win the 2020 election
  • Analysis of 2016 polls showed regional differences; the southwest under-represented Democratic support while over-representing support in the rust belt and the states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida
  • The same analysis indicated that Georgia polls were accurate, along with Texas 

Neither candidate nor their supporters should be thinking the election is already over. By our analysis, the race has tightened to 298 vs. 240, a Biden win. Real Clear Politics no toss-up map paints a grimmer picture for Trump, 311 vs. 227, Biden. Hopefully, we’ll know on November 4. 

The election dashboard flashes yellow for Biden

A slew of new polls has come out over the weekend. Although they don’t indicate the Democrats should panic, they should be moving to yellow alert.

In deciphering the data coming out, each election cycle poses challenges when reading between the lines. In 2016, pollsters missed the divide between white non-college-educated and white college-educated males, with the latter making up a significant portion of Trump’s base. Although many are quick to dismiss the pollsters are egregiously wrong in 2016, the reality is most pollsters came within the margin of error. In the four key states that gave Trump the win, the margin of victory was narrow.

The so-called firewall state for Biden shifted back to Nevada over the weekend, while it has remained South Carolina for Trump. We consider a firewall state a state where there is a 90% or better chance that the state will go to a particular candidate. Any state “left” or “right” of that state (depending on the political leanings) is a lock unless something incredible and unforeseen happens.

Although several bad polls out of Texas battered Trump, and early voting numbers there are massive and giving Biden a considerable advantage, the latest Sienna/NYT poll has Trump up by 4 this morning. Trump grew his tenuous leads in Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio over the weekend.

For Biden, the leads he is holding in North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania contracted. If there is a repeat of 2016 polling errors, all three of these states would be won by Trump. A couple of polls out of Arizona show a wild swing in the Kelly(D) vs. McSally (R-I) race. I would consider these numbers suspect as a 13-point swing is hard to process with no apparent event in the race to support it.

Another point of concern with Democratic strategists is the Biden team is turning their focus to Texas and Georgia, believing they can flip these states. Some see this as a repeat of 2016 and want the Biden campaign to prioritize defending the lead in the rust belt states and Pennsylvania while working on flipping Iowa and Ohio.

For Biden supporters, they shouldn’t be hitting the panic button – yet. Biden holds an aggregate national lead of 8-1/2% to 10%, which is significantly larger than Clinton at this same point in 2016 (5.6%) and well outside the margin of error. Additionally, one factor that pollsters may not be correcting enough for is the dwindling number of likely voters who are willing to respond to a poll and haven’t voted yet. Some models predict 100 million Americas will have voted before election day, which is close to 80% of all the votes case in 2016. Are the polls over counting the people who haven’t voted yet, leaning more toward Trump? Pollsters are undoubtedly aware of this and adjusting their models, but do they have a reliable baseline to use?

Regardless of your political affiliation, the most critical thing you can do is vote and vote early. With officials concerned about election day violence, voter intimidation, and ballot boxes burned in numerous cities, there is sure to be manufactured chaos on election day. If you want your vote to count, then do it early this week if possible.

Three Years and 147 Days

June 15, 2020

Dear President Donald Trump:

I am writing to you today to thank you for the last three-years-and-one-hundred-and-forty-seven-days of your presidency. When you were elected, you promised you would unite the American people together uttering the words, “When America is united, America is totally [sic] unstoppable.” So here we are, Mr. President, three years and 147 days later. I’m so proud as an American to see you have fulfilled your promise to unite us.

Through your divisive words and actions, good Americans from sea to shining sea are uniting. Your great words about Charlottesville, where you declared there were “very fine people, on both sides,” and you were pleading to not rush to judgment. In contrast, how quickly you condemned protesters in Minneapolis without wanting to learn more. Yes, Mr. President, you are uniting the country.

As you tightened the rules of legal immigration in the name of defending America, you placed asylum seekers and those seeking the light of freedom into the textbook definition of concentration camps. They shivered in the cold, unwashed, lacking medical treatment, a place to sleep, and even basic shelter in some cases. They died of preventable diseases, documented beatings and rapes by guards, and murdered at border crossings.

Peoples of the world, trying to escape the specter of violence, government abuses, and crushing poverty, had their children taken from them and placed in inhumane conditions. The same children were misplaced in government bureaucracy and malfeasance while their parents were deported. Yes, Mr. President, thank you for uniting us. The same children remain packed in unfit conditions, exposed to abuse, negligence, and COVID-19.

Your attacks on the free press in words and deeds have made the United States one of the most dangerous places on the planet for reporters and photographers. When faced with overwhelming evidence that the government of Saudi Arabia murdered a reporter from an American newspaper, you only gave it passing mention. Today as I write this, the news agencies that once supported you have grown weary, and cracks are forming. When confronted with their concerns, with their realization that no amount of spin can put you in a favorable light, you attack what was once your allies. Yes, Mr. President, you are uniting us with your actions.

You promised to bring dignity back to the White House and to be the hardest working President in history. For three years and 147 days, we’ve watched you use Twitter for diplomacy, spend your days watching TV, playing golf at taxpayer’s expense, and when faced with a crisis from your beloved people right outside your door, cower in fear in your basement bunker. Yes, Mr. President, you are uniting us.

You promised to control the deficit, balance the budget, and drain the swamp. Yet during a period of economic prosperity that you inherited, your tax cuts didn’t benefit 90% of Americans, enriched the top 10%, and grew our nation’s deficit by 5.2 trillion dollars in just three years 147 days. A debt that our children and our children’s children will inherit with inflation and lost prosperity. Our economy entered recession before the first COVID-19 death was reported on our shores, and you could count the active cases on one hand. Yes, Mr. President, you have united us.

Your authoritative and awe-inspiring words found within each of your Twitter broadsides vilified our friends and allies. You insulted our closest neighbors and most significant trading partners in Canada and Mexico. You have brought us to the brink of a cold war with China, left the dictatorial government of North Korea laughing at us, encouraged the Russian state, and left the globe wondering what has happened to American greatness. Yes, Mr. President, you have united us.

You claimed that the government has no place in regulating business. So you gutted environmental and wildlife protection, while placing tariffs, also know as price controls, on goods and services. The prices of those goods and services hurt businesses and ordinary Americans alike, removing any benefit from your tax cuts, and not coming close to filling the deficit hole as you promised. The farmers, coal miners, and factory workers you promised to help have been abandoned while foreign nations scammed you for tax breaks.

Your incredible response to the COVID-19 epidemic has exposed to the world that the disease ravaging our nation is not just a virus, but the impotent reaction from your leadership. Emergency rooms became overwhelmed, front-line medical workers died due to a lack of personal protection equipment, your agencies scammed by predatory companies and junk science, and our leaders in science and medicine silenced. One-hundred-and-fifteen-thousand dead Americans from what you declared was a hoax, was just the flu, would magically go away once warmer weather came. As I type this, the southern and southwestern states are being devastated by your hoax. Your playbook of distraction and Twitter diplomacy didn’t work against a virus. The world has learned that we are nothing but a paper tiger, with fragile infrastructure and resources.

Despite all of these missteps toward greatness, your support hasn’t wavered. Your staunchest allies and enablers have stood by you while trying to steer your course. Yet you continue to ignore the Constitution, jurists, leaders, scientists, doctors, and diplomats that have been attempting to save you from yourself. Yes, Mr. President, you have united us.

As our nation watched in horror at the street execution of George Floyd on a Minneapolis street, his life squeezed from him as he cried out for his mother, the people became united. You went to your same playbook to divide, vilify, and tweet. As the people you profess to love unprecedently protested outside your door, you built a wall, you hid in a bunker and watched the TV you deny you watch. You threatened to send federal troops against your People, to the disgust and disdain of retired and active-duty generals and admirals. You had peaceful protesters pepper-sprayed and beaten for a photo op at a church. As you spoke of law and order from the White House, a house built by slaves, the nation could hear your state-sanctioned violence against the First Amendment in the background. Yes, Mr. President, you have united us.

I want to thank you, President Trump, for the last three years and 147 days. Because of you, your words, and your deeds, I was able to see the hatred and racism that existed right under my nose. I could see what I thought were friends, for what they are. By encouraging the forces that want to destroy this nation, you exposed the great lie that there is equality in the eyes of the law, that the police forces of this nation have just a few bad apples, and make rare, but very public mistakes. I always suspected these were narratives were false, but you provided the proof.

You have united the American people, Mr. President, in a way that I never thought would be possible three years and 147 days ago. We are joined in historic protest from coast to coast and border to border—six-hundred-and-fifty cities and towns across America, from the biggest to the smallest. From marches measured in the hundreds of thousands to lone vigils of one. All these people, united against the hatred, the fear, and the anger you’ve fomented tweet after hateful tweet. Yes, Mr. President, you have united us.

We are united to no longer accept the idea that racism has been resolved in this country, or is just a passing problem. Because of you, the good people of this county who didn’t think these were real issues are now learning that it is deeply rooted in the very things you defend, and rotten to the core.

We see you for what you are, a dotard, barely able to stand on their own, obsessed with what people think of you. A narcissist, staring at their magic mirror, listening only to those who say yes. Outside your bunker, a giant has awoken and been filled with a great resolve to bring about change to our nation. Yes, Mr. President, you have united us.

I have watched first hand since May 30 as Black, white, Latino/Latina, Asian, Hispanic, indigenous, native-born, and immigrant have marched in peaceful protest. I have seen first hand the excessive force applied by our militarized police departments using CS and OC gas on peaceful citizens, firing rubber bullets, striking with batons, shocking with Tasers, and preventing peaceful assembly. My eyes have stung, my lungs have burned, and I have personally carried the wounded as I documented the actions you sanctioned.

The violence was so great that our allies in the United Kingdom have voted to stop selling rubber bullets and teargas to the United States. Violence on the people so troubling that even in South Africa, they are marching for the Black lives in our raging and grieving nation. Yes, Mr. President, South Africa looks more enlightened in the eyes of the world than our country because of your words and deeds.

We are once again the United States of America, Mr. President. We are united against you and those who think like you. We are joined together to bring out meaningful change, for full equality, to demand that this nation treat everyone as equals. Equality does not mean that some will get less, nor is that what We the People want. We want the level playing field the American dream promises for all people. We want our minority brothers and sisters in this great race of life to run that race unshackled, unencumbered, and without the oppression of institutional racism. Mr. President, those of us that want this change outnumber those of you who don’t.

You and your supporters are focused on agitators and those who are trying to discredit this movement. I applaud that, Mr. President, because distraction is useful when you are bringing about change. While you shudder in anger watching your TV and spitting out sentence fragments on Twitter, we are using the most potent weapons we have in the American arsenal. We are leveraging our rights. We are using our right to peaceful assembly. We are using our right to freedom of speech. We are using our right to videotape and photograph, and audio record the transgressions of those who are so comfortable with racism and inaction, that they feel they can freely operate in this connected world with impunity. And, Mr. President, we are sharing those videos, pictures, and audio clips, on Twitter for the world to see. We are using your actions to demand change at a local, county, and state level and, on November 3, at the federal level too.

Had you told me, Mr. President, that you would unite our nation in a singular fierce voice demanding change in just three years and 147 days, I would have said it was impossible. I had expected incompetence and hatred, but I never realized how dark your heart is, how you lack a soul, and how deep corruption runs to your core. You made these things mainstream and revealed the ugliness of America hiding in plain sight behind gossamer curtains. Those curtains, Mr. President, have been torn down.

On November 3, 2020, the American people will decide on whether they want to renew The Donald Trump Show for four more seasons. Forty-million unemployed, the numbers without health insurance exploding, institutional racism and violence defended by you, the Constitution defiled, 115,000 dead from COVID-19 and counting, and protests in 650 cities from coast-to-coast.

Thank you, Mr. President, for uniting us and putting America, for the first time in more than a generation, on a path to greatness. We, the people, are screaming in a singular voice, “no more.”

Three-years, and 147 days.

Kevin Hassett leaving the White House

The Golfer-in-Chief’s top economic adviser is leaving the White House, per a tweet, with Twitter being the preferred communication tool for the most powerful nation in the world. The departure is very significant given the announcement of socialistic price controls tariffs on Mexico that will begin on June 10, and the widest inversion of the yield curve since 2007 on Friday.

Yield curve inversions have been a gold standard indicator of a looming recession in the last seven downturns. The yield curve has inverted three times since late 2018, with the latest and most dramatic inversion happening last week. A yield curve inversion is when long-term interest rates fall below short-term interest rates on bonds. Normally the yield on bonds should be better long term. The inversion happens when investors believe that the credit markets will get tighter, thus lowering returns on long term bonds.

Michael Schumacher, managing director and global head of rate strategy at Wells Fargo Securities stated on Friday that there was no need to be alarmed, and the inversion is no longer the gold standard of a looming recession. He did, however, in his next breath, he advise that investors should take a conservative stance.

It isn’t lost on the Malcontent on the timing of the departure, a weekend announcement via tweet, and the typical, “thank you for your amazing service,” praise. If prior experience is a good predictor of the future, it won’t be long before Kevin Hassett is low energy, stupid, and the worst economist on the planet.

The grim reality is if the taxes that get passed on to ordinary consumers tariffs imposed on China and Mexico are allowed to play out to their 25% maximum, it will have a significant impact on the US and global economies. With interest rates still low, and dear leader recently demanding they should be cut now to drive more growth, the fed has only a little runway to adjust rates to stimulate a stalled out economy before the fed rate goes back to zero. In an economic downturn the most powerful dial the federal reserve has is to lower rates, that and print more money with an IOU.

To an outside observer, it isn’t a big leap to speculate that Hassett disagreed with policy and was pushed out of the White House. Only the best people, you’ll see, only the greatest minds.

Oy.

Malcontent, out.