All posts by David Obelcz

Seven Seattle police officers threaten art gallery with confiscation of display

John Mitchell created an art installation highlighting Black Lives Matter artwork and scenes of Seattle Police Department brutality at his Capitol Hill studio. The art installation uses projectors, valued at $25,000 each, to display the video clips and still images through windows and on to the Seattle East Precinct station’s ecology block barriers. Police officers complained that the installation was problematic for exiting the garage, and tonight officers confronted Mitchell.

In a video shot on October 31, seven Seattle police officers approached Mitchell, demanding he removes the projector and threatening to confiscate the art installation. In the video shared on Facebook, one of the officers says, “We’re going to give you a warning. If the officers complain some more [sic] about this light blinding you, we’ll write up a report and confiscate it. You’ve been warned [sic] multiple times.

Earlier in the video, the same officer asks, “Have you tried driving a car out of there yet?” The ramp the officer is talking about is gated and has a small, no trespassing sign. One protester and one citizen journalist have been arrested at different times for walking up the ramp, indicating that accessing the ramp would likely be met with force.

This is a breaking story and we will continue to monitor.

Penultimate national election analysis

Election Day starts in less than 77 hours. Barring some significant event over the weekend, this will be our penultimate election analysis. A series of fresh polls have come out at the national and state level, showing little change in the race. President Trump is not speaking, tweeting, or positioning himself as a man confident he can win on Tuesday.

Firewall States: We consider firewall states as the state on the FiveThirtyEight Snake Chart as having a 90% chance, or better, of tipping to a candidate. All of the states above that state (Trump) or below that state (Biden) are not battleground states.

Trump’s firewall state of South Carolina remains unchanged. Biden’s firewall state has changed from Wisconsin to Nevada. This change happened because Biden’s position has strengthened in both states.

Battleground States: We consider the following as battleground states in order of their lean from Trump to Biden:

State or District

538

RCP

Malcontent
News

Texas

Trump +2

Trump +2.3

Trump 

Iowa 

Trump +0.7

Biden +1.2

Toss Up

Ohio 

Trump +0.6

Tie

Toss Up 

Georgia 

Biden +1.0

Biden +0.8

Toss Up

Maine 2nd District

Biden +0.2

Not Tracked

Biden 

North Carolina

Biden +2.1

Biden +1.2

Toss Up 

Florida

Biden +2.1

Biden +1.2

Toss Up

Arizona

Biden +2.8

Tie

Toss Up 

Nebraska 2nd District

Biden +4.5

Not Tracked 

Biden 

Pennsylvania

Biden +5.1 

Biden +3.6

Biden 

As we head into the final weekend before the election, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona are the critical states for both candidates. It is worth noting that Trump carried all of these states in 2016. Although Real Clear Politics considers Wisconsin and Minnesota as battleground states, data indicates neither state is in play. We have consistently said that where New Hampshire goes, Maine District 2 goes and data indicates that the district is strengthening for Biden. 

There are some other election and polling trends worth noting. More early voting ballots have been submitted in Texas than all the votes received in the 2016 election. Iowa has announced they are closing 267 polling sites, mostly in the metro-Des Moines area, due to COVID. There are concerns this change will disenfranchise Democratic voters in the blue-leaning city. Additionally, the Supreme Court has decided that North Carolina and Pennsylvania will need to accept ballots postmarked by election day. However, the courts have also decided that Pennsylvania can’t start counting the over 2-million early ballots it received until election day. As a precursor to election chaos, over 230 election-related cases have been filed in federal courts across the country.

On Tuesday, Trump suggested that people could change their votes they’ve already submitted, creating the topic to trend on Google. A 45 state analysis indicated that only a handful of states allow “spoiled ballots” and only under certain conditions. Further, the window to change a ballot has closed in every state except New Hampshire.  

But what if the polls are wrong like in 2016. We’ve covered previously on who 2020 is different; most critically, Biden has consistently polled higher than Hilary Clinton did in 2016. There has not been the same indication of deflating poll numbers that battered Clinton in 2016, and we’re past the window of a Comney memo grade surprise. If the same polling error in 2016 of about 3% were to happen in 2020, Biden would still win based on all available data. 

We believe the more significant question is what President Trump will do post-election. Suppose Trump moves to invalidate the election or manipulate electors. In that case, it will almost certainly be met with protests. Federal, state, and local police officials and business leaders are very worried about post-election violence. In numerous communities, both small and large, businesses have already started boarding up windows and taking other defensive measures.  

Neither candidate nor their supporters should be thinking the election is already over. Fivethirtyeight forecasts an 89% chance Biden will win the national election. By our analysis, the race has improved for Biden to 308 vs. 230, Biden win. Real Clear Politics no toss-up map also shows the race improving for Biden. As of this writing, they are indicating the final results of 345 vs. 193, Biden.

Hurricane Zeta makes landfall in Louisiana with 110 MPH winds

Hurricane Zeta strengthened significantly above forecasted models as a strong Category II storm with 110 MPH winds and higher gusts, making landfall in Cocodrie, Lousiana at 2:44 PM PDT. The compact storm has hurricane-force winds extending 35 miles from the center and was moving at 24 MPH. Evacuation orders along the Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida panhandle had been sparse based on forecast models, and officials now worried about thousands in harm’s way.

Hurricane Warnings, Tropical Storm Warnings, and Storm Surge Warnings have remained unchanged since Tuesday, extending from Mississippi to Florida. As of 2:00 PM PDT, Zeta was 65 miles south-southwest of New Orleans. Storm surge, responsible for most hurricane-related deaths, was forecasted to be 7 to 11 feet at the mouth of the Pearl River on the Mississippi-Alabama border, and 6 to 9 feet at Port Fourchon, located at the mouth of Mississippi River.

Zeta is the 11th named storm to make landfall in the continental United States, and the fifth system to hit Lousiana in 2020. The National Weather Service is tracking three tropical waves across the Atlantic, any of which could develop into the 28th named storm, Eta.

UPDATED Amazon security guard drives car through protesters, at least 1 injured, driver in custody

A vehicle drove through protesters outside of the Seattle West Precinct police station, striking at least three protesters with reports of at least one injured. A group from Seattle’s Every Day March, on their 151st day of protest were outside of the police station when a car exited from a parking garage and drove through the crowd. Reports from the scene indicate the driver is an Amazon security guard, who was asked by protesters to drive a different route but instead drove through the group. Seattle Police are reporting they have a driver in custody.

Earlier reports of Seattle car brigade drivers being ticketed appear to be untrue based on video from the scene, with drivers issued written warnings.

Among the victims was a person who was with Summer Taylor and Diaz Love on July 4, when Taylor was killed and Love gravely injured in an early morning motor vehicle attack while protesting on Interstate 5. Washington State Patrol had closed the freeway, but left access to the off-ramps open.

Video shows a large group outside of the precinct, and screams of terror as the car drove through the protesters. After there was a scene of chaos with Seattle Police working on issuing written warnings to the car brigade drivers and later harassing Every Day March leaders while they were trying to leave.

This is at least the sixth car attack against protesters in Seattle since June 7, 2020. Nikolas Fernandez drove his car into protesters on June 7, shooting one in the arm before surrendering to the police. Fernandez has been charged with felony assault. Retired Seattle police officer Molly Clark drove her car through a Seattle protest while hurling racial slurs. Clark retired from the Seattle Police Department was never charged. A Doordash driver drove through the bike brigade during a march, clipping a person and destroying a bike. That driver was never charged. Dawit Kelete drove his Jaguar SUV into protesters on I-5 in the early morning hours of July 4. He was arrested and has been charged with vehicular homicide and reckless driving.

Seattle Municipal Code Section12A.12.015(A)(4) allows protesters and vehicles to block traffic and be in the street while exercising their First Amendment rights.

Renee Raketty contributed to this story.

National election tightens as both candidates get bad news

The national election, which will serve as a performance review for Donald Trump, is seven days away, with fresh polls providing worry for both parties. As of Tuesday morning, over 66-million Americans had already cast their 2020 ballots – almost equal to 50% of all ballots cast in 2020.

Bad news for team Trump came out of Iowa and Georgia. In Iowa, Trump hasn’t had a reliable poll indicating he has a lead since October 11. In Georgia, a recent series of polls are showing a dead heat. 

Although Texas moved for our forecast firewall state after a weekend of bad news for Trump, the polls have stabilized. The second-largest electoral college haul hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996. 

For Biden, the race in North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona have tightened. All three states are now polling within the margin of error. If the 2016 polling eras repeat, all three states will tip to Trump. In contrast, Pennsylvania still holds a safe margin for Biden. In contrast, Biden has firmed up his grip in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota, while Nevada remains the firewall state. 

Analysts and pundits have spilled a lot of digital ink the last few days, attempting to read between the lines. The hateful rhetoric, COVID impacting in-person voting, and less interest in third-party candidates have made projecting 2016 onto 2020 a fool’s errand. There are some knowns and discovered factors that can be projected onto the numbers:

  • People waiting to vote on election day favors undecided and younger voters; undecided voters will likely break to Trump while younger voters are favoring Biden
  • Hilary Clinton in 2016 never polled above 50%; in contrast, Biden has consistently polled above 50% and held an 8% to 11% aggregate lead over Trump through October
  • 2016 third-party candidates Johnson (Libertarian) and Stein (Green Party) carried about 5% of the vote in both Michigan and Wisconsin; none of the third-party candidates have momentum in 2020 
  • With so many early ballots cast, an October surprise such as the 2016 Comey Memo would likely have less impact on either candidate
  • Polls in 2016 were off about 3%, but it wasn’t even across all states – repeating that same margin of error, Biden safely would win the 2020 election
  • Analysis of 2016 polls showed regional differences; the southwest under-represented Democratic support while over-representing support in the rust belt and the states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida
  • The same analysis indicated that Georgia polls were accurate, along with Texas 

Neither candidate nor their supporters should be thinking the election is already over. By our analysis, the race has tightened to 298 vs. 240, a Biden win. Real Clear Politics no toss-up map paints a grimmer picture for Trump, 311 vs. 227, Biden. Hopefully, we’ll know on November 4. 

Zeta strikes Mexico, expected to return to hurricane strength

Hurricane Zeta made landfall along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico as a Category I storm with 80 MPH winds. Reports indicate minimal damage, with Zeta dropping 4 to 8 inches of rain before moving into the western Caribbean. The brush with land dropped the winds to 60 MPH, once again making Zeta a Tropical Storm, but restrengthening is expected with a collision course set for the Gulf Coast of the United States. 

The National Weather Service predicts Zeta will make landfall as a Category I hurricane with 80 MPH winds on Wednesday. Current projections indicate the eye of the storm projected to land between New Orleans, Louisiana, and Mobile, Alabama. Hurricane forecast is challenging, and residents from the Texas-Louisana border to Florida’s panhandle should be preparing.

Hurricane Warnings extend from Morgan City, Lousiana to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning extends from the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Klakoosa-Walton County line in Florida. A Storm Surge Warning stretches from the Atchafalaya River’s mouth to Navarre, Florida, and includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Borgne, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.

Hurricane Zeta will be historic, being the 11th named storm to make landfall in the United States during the 2020 hurricane season and the fifth tropical system to arrive in storm-battered Louisiana.

1500 march in Seattle for 150 Days of BLM Protest

The video includes strong language, discussion on violence, and police activity.

An estimated crowd of 1500 assembled on Capitol Hill to march in recognition of 150 days of continuous Black Lives Matter protests in Seattle. Assembling at Cal Anderson Park, once the heart of CHOP, at 6 PM, the crowd continued to swell as a host of speakers and organizers addressed the enthusiastic crowd. Three black-owned businesses did a brisk business before protesters assembled for their march.

The march route went through downtown and stopped briefly at the West Precinct. The Seattle police reported graffiti was painted on the ecology blocks that surround the building, and some bottles were thrown. We witnessed fresh graffiti but did not see, nor hear any bottles. The march then went to Westlake, where there were more speeches by organizers and black leaders, a candlelight vigil, and live music by the Marshall Law Band. During this time a group of an estimated 100 protesters broke off and moved traffic barricades into the street according to Seattle Police Department reports.

For the return to Capitol Hill a smaller group, who had attended for over four hours, marched back to Broadway and Pine. As the evening march concluded, a large group from ENDD in black bloc, marched east on Pine before turning north on 11th. A resident of Capitol Hill reported that eggs had been thrown at the East Precinct and there was fresh graffiti.

Seattle police then appeared in force heading west on Pine and drove at a high rate of speed north on 12th. When our team moved to investigate, a large group of protesters rounded the corner at 12th and Pine, heading west, with Seattle Police chasing them with dye enhanced pepper spray and batons. No pepper spray was deployed, and upon our arrival with cameras, SPD released two they were just taking into custody and told the third person, “take a walk.” One was held by SPD while one community member yelled from a window and another protester heckled officers. Ultimately the individual was released.

Zeta strengthens, Hurricane Watches for Louisiana and Alabama

Zeta strengthened to a Category I hurricane with 80 MPH as it continues its northwestward march toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Officials in Cuba discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings for the western part of the island nation as Zeta moved away. US officials issued a Hurricane Watch from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch includes Lake Ponchitrain and New Orleans.

In Mexico, Hurricane Warnings include the island of Cozumel, battered three weeks ago by Hurricane Delta. Zeta is expected to pass over the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night, then emerge back into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will gather strength. Forecast models indicate that heavy rain from the system could be lashing the Gulf Coast of the United States by Tuesday night.

WDSU of New Orleans reports voluntary evacuation orders in Orleans Parish for those who live outside of the levees and in Jefferson Parish for all residents. Additionally, mandatory evacuation orders for all campers, RVs, and boat residents on Grand Isle. Zeta will be the 11th named system to make landfall on the United States in 2020, a record, and the fourth system to strike the Yucatan Peninsula. 

Streamer hospitalized in Austin after protester beatdown

Streaming is not easy.

Responsible, journalistic streaming is not an idiot holding a smartphone.

Responsible streaming is not streaming while protesting at the same time, within the body of protesters.

On Saturday morning, Hiram Gilberto, a highly respected streamer out of Austin, Texas, was savagely beaten on camera by a group of protesters. His equipment was destroyed and he was hospitalized. He is now home recovering from a concussion and his injuries include a black eye, bruises, cuts, and scrapes.

There are some dedicated journalists and independents. Locally peeps like Concrete Reporting and Joey can tell you it is hard, it is dangerous, and it comes with almost no reward.

The cops don’t want you filming.
The protesters increasingly don’t want you filming.
The alt-right wants you dead, literally.
The left complains you show too much.
The right complains you don’t show enough.
Journalistic streamers run into the line of fire, not away from it.
Journalistic streamers are vigilant to report the story, not become the story.

In Seattle, respectful streamers spend most of their time in a no man’s land on the police line’s edge. No one has your back. You’re typically the last person through an intersection. If you’re hanging back as you should, somebody could waffle stomp you, or the police could arrest you, and no one would know. Increasingly when protesters chant, “who got our backs, we got our backs, “streamers cringe on the inside.

Journalistic streamers can spend 3, 4, even 6 hours walking without a break, without a bathroom, without a sip of water. They are holding equipment steady, answering questions, providing real-time narration. They are continually asking questions to themselves. Do I have enough battery charge? Is the lens still clean? Who is behind me, who is beside me, what is that car doing, is that person following me a threat?

The fallacy that someone can shoot four hours of raw video and then edit it for release misses a critical point. If you take four hours of video, you have to watch four hours of video before you even start to edit it. Mass editing of content at that scale requires computing horsepower, technical knowledge that isn’t common, and an enormous amount of time. Most streamers don’t even do highlight clips post stream because it is a tremendous amount of time.

Video stored locally has no concurrent backup (MP4 doesn’t support that). It is far easier for law enforcement to copy off of a device. On a phone or camera with a memory card, that card could just…disappear. Who will believe someone arrested when they say the memory card is gone and the police say it was never there.

Then there are three other 800-pound elephants in the room. First, organizations exist today that create highlight reels of protests and the Black Lives Matter movement; they’re called the mainstream media. They show the essential bits, mostly involving police officers. What they offer is violence, what we like to call protest porn. No one from the MSM has contacted me saying, “Hey, we saw your 3 hours of peaceful protest live stream from Saturday, and we’d like to use it for this news story we’re working on.”

Second, the streamer only has one insurance policy for their personal safety, the stream. If they are arrested, a stream shows a before-during-after and is stored in the cloud. The device can’t be smashed, and the memory card can’t disappear. If they are violently attacked, the stream is the only witness to the assault. An immediate example of this is Brad Fox in CHOP in the late hours of June 28 and his unrelated bullshit arrest about a month later. His stream was the witness to both of these incidents.

No one is going to watch a 2-1/2 hour previously recorded peaceful protest. However, the 2-1/2 hour peaceful protest is needed to fight the “all protesters are violent thugs” narrative. An edited video is quickly dismissed with the declaration, “you edit your videos, so you just took out the bad parts.”

An example of this was a right-wing streamer in Bellevue on October 24, claimed a Starbucks was destroyed. The “proof” was shaky at best, but the story picked up momentum on the eastside. The narrative? “Here is a video of the police rushing to this Starbucks! It got destroyed!” That was good enough for people who want to believe the BLM movement is violent.

When a journalist, and Hiram is absolutely a journalist, is assaulted, we are all assaulted. Not only is Hiram a journalist, but he is also an individual of great ethics.

Should Hiram have taken a walk? Probably. Should he have been hospitalized? Absolutely not; it is disgusting. When you beat reporters in the name of “security,” you become the system you’re fighting.

You cannot watch videos of the violence against the press and condemn it if you support what happened to Hiram. Examples include the Australian news crew beaten by Washington DC police, the US head from the British news organization The Independent falsely arrested in Seattle, or the reporters from The Daily Caller arrested in Louisville. To point to these examples of police brutality, declare “All Cops Are Bastards” and then spin around and beat a reporter senseless is hypocrisy.

Pot meet kettle.
Kettle meet pot.

Worst of all, Austin defunded their police department by over 30% with almost no drama. Texas has shown at least some willingness to address the systemic racism within the police of their state. In comparison, Washington and Oregon appear like racist backwaters.

The actions of these protesters feed the rioters and thugs narrative. It ironically goes against their claims of being endangered by the camera. Beating someone senseless on camera, when your claim being on camera could get you arrested, is ironic. And using the word ironic is charitable. We stand with Hiram and his defense of the First Amendment, which includes a free press.

If you want to support Hiram Gilberto

You can support Hiram Gilberto in his recovery and to secure new equipment on CashApp and Venmo:

CashApp: $Hirambae
Venmo: @hiram-Garcia-2

Historic Tropical Storm Zeta expected to become hurricane

Tropical Storm Zeta, the 27th named storm in the 2020 hurricane season, is churning in the Caribbean on a collision course with the Yucatan Peninsula.

The earliest 27th named storm in history, Zeta is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall Monday night or early Tuesday morning, local time. Zeta has sustained winds of 70 MPH, just under hurricane strength and moving northwest at 7 MPH. Hurricane warnings are posted along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and Tropical Storm Warnings are posted in western Cuba.

Hurricane battered east Texas, Louisana, and Alabama are once again in the bullseye. With confidence growing, Zeta would be the 11th named storm to make landfall in the United States, with projections indicating the storm will arrive Wednesday evening. If Zeta makes landfall in the United States, it would be a record-setting eleventh tropical system to strike the United States in a single hurricane season.

Officials advise Louisiana residents to prepare for yet another tropical system, with storm surge, wind, and flooding rains.