Update: 12:05 PM – the announced restrictions will be in place for four weeks.
Governor Inslee of Washington state will be holding a press conference at 11 AM to announce new restrictions on activities and businesses due to a dramatic increase in COVID cases. The sweeping restrictions will prohibit indoor dining, reduce capacity at all retail locations including grocery stores to 25%, and requires entertainment venues such as movie theaters and zoos to close.
Washington state has seen a record number of new cases, exceeding 2,000 a day, while hospitalizations have started to increase. Late last week, UW Medicine announced it was implementing its surge plan which includes adding hospital beds and staff while dialing back on elective surgeries and in-office visits.
Government officials in Idaho have made things more complicated for Washington state. While Idaho does not havee a mask requirement, the hospitals in the panhandle region have become overwhelmed, and the state has started sending its COVID patients to Seattle and Portland, Oregon. In eastern Washington and Clark County in southwestern Washington, positive test rates range from 10.4% in Clark County to 37.7% in Whitman County. Less than 5% positive is ideal, and anything over 10% indicates under-testing and widespread transmission. Anything over 20% is considered a critical situation.
The state of Washington has released the following statement.
In order to slow the spread of rapidly increasing COVID cases in our state, and ensure that hospitals and medical systems are not overwhelmed, we are taking the very difficult but necessary steps to protect public health.
We recognize this will cause financial hardship for many businesses and the governor and staff are exploring ways to mitigate the impacts.
These rules are effective Monday, Nov. 16th at midnight (12:01 AM Tuesday), except for where noted as in the case of restaurants (detailed below).
If the activity is not listed, it should follow its current guidance. All K-12/higher education and childcare are exempt from the new restrictions and will follow current guidance. These restrictions do not apply to courts and court-related proceedings.
Indoor social gatherings with people from outside your household are prohibited.
Outdoor social gatherings should be limited to 5 people from outside your household.
Restaurants and bars are closed for indoor service. Outdoor dining and to-go service are permitted. Outdoor dining must follow the outdoor dining restriction. Table size limited to 5 for outdoor dining. These restaurant restrictions go into effect at 12:01 AM Wednesday, November 18.
Fitness facilities and gyms are closed for indoor operations. Outdoor fitness classes may still occur but they are limited by the outdoor gathering restriction listed above. Drop off childcare closed.
Bowling Centers are closed for indoor service.
Miscellaneous Venues: All retail activities and business meetings are prohibited. Only professional training and testing that cannot be performed remotely is allowed. Occupancy in each meeting room is limited to 25% or 100 people, whichever is fewer.
Movie Theaters are closed for indoor service. Drive-in movie theaters are still permitted and must follow the current drive-in movie theater guidance.
Museums/Zoos/Aquariums are closed for indoor service.
Real Estate open houses are prohibited.
Wedding and Funeral receptions are prohibited. Ceremonies are limited to no more than 30 people.
In-store retail limited to 25% indoor occupancy and must close any common/congregate non-food-related seating areas. Food court indoor seating is closed.
Religious services limited to 25% indoor occupancy no more than 200 people, whichever is fewer. No choir, band, or ensemble shall perform during the service. Soloists are permitted to perform. Facial coverings must be worn at all times by congregation members and no congregational singing.
Professional Services are required to mandate that employees work from home when possible, and to close offices to the public. If they remain open, occupancy is restricted to 25%.
Personal services are limited to 25% of maximum occupancy.
Long-term Care Facilities outdoor visits only. Exceptions can be made for essential support person and end-of-life care.
Youth (school and non-school) and adult sporting activities are limited to outdoor-only for intrateam practices, masks required for athletes.
A household is defined as the individuals residing in the same domicile.
UPDATE: Eta has weakened to a tropical storm again, with winds of 70 MPH. The center of Eta is 85 miles southwest of Tampa Florida, moving north at 10 MPH. Tropical Storm Warnings now extend from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, Florida.
Eta restrengthened to a Category I hurricane overnight and appeared to have picked a path. Packing winds of 75 MPH, Eta was located 145 miles south-southwest of Tampa and heading toward the big bend region of the western Florida coast. Overnight, Eta formed a well-developed eye, but wind shear and relatively dry air will make further strengthening difficult.
Since its formation in late October, Eta has impacted Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Cuba, and the United States. Last week, Eta slammed into Central America, delivering 140 MPH winds, 18 feet storm surge, flooding, mudslides, and misery. Over 150 deaths were reported across the region, with more people missing.
Forecasters have not declared hurricane watches or warnings, but they are expected later today. Tropical Storm Theta continued to move east in the Atlantic with 60 MPH winds and posed no threat to land. A tropical wave located southwest of the Dominican Republic was expected to form into a tropical depression. If that system reaches tropical storm strength, it would become the 30th named storm of 2020 and represent the first time three named systems were in the Atlantic basin this late in a hurricane season.
Tropical Storm Theta became the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, shattering all previous records going back to 1850. Located 795 miles southwest of the Azores with winds of 70 MPH, Theta is not a threat to land and forecasted to weaken over the next five days.
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been the most active in history, with 12 named storms making United States landfall so far. Late Sunday, Tropical Storm Eta passed over the Florida Keys, bringing torrential rains and flash floods. In addition to Theta and Eta, the National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the southern Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Eta is almost stationary off the western tip of Cuba. Forecasters currently believe that Eta will struggle to become a hurricane again while remaining a threat from Alabama to Florida.
It should have been a routine traffic stop. On early Friday morning, a police officer from Delafield, Wisconsin, and another from Hartland, Wisconsin, stopped a suspect vehicle after a hit-and-run accident. Nathanael Benton, 23, ambushed both officers who were taken to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries. Benton, who is white, was then taken into custody alive and without incident in a nearby field. Police later discovered that he was wanted on an attempted murder warrant in Noth Dakota.
#BREAKING We are receiving an update from the Delafield Chief of Police: -1 Delafield and 1 Hartland officer were shot they have non-life threatening injuries -The suspect is believed to be a white male, wearing khakis, a hoodie and a flat brimmed hat -The suspect is on foot pic.twitter.com/Y9mtTBiFHG
Fargo police put out an APB for Benton on November 2, 2020, after shooting a man in the head in Fargo. That person is also expected to recover.
A search of Benton’s social media footprint turned up racist ideation at the time of him completing home school. His social media footprint got quieter in the last few years.
Sprawling across Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, the 173,000 member Navajo Nation suffers from “Dikos Ntsaaígíí-19” – COVID-19. Over seven-percent of the Navajo have tested positive for COVID-19, with 591 deaths. If the Navajo Nation was an independent country, the mortality rate of 4.7% would be third-worst globally, behind Iran and Mexico.
Tribal officials called the outbreak out of control this week. In this sprawling desert region, where one-third of the population has no access to running water, officials declared a 56-hour curfew in an attempt to curb case growth. The curfew is on top of an existing daily curfew from 9 PM to 5 AM.
Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has been working with the Navajo and Pueblo Nations since April. In neighboring New Mexico, almost 50% of all COVID-19 deaths are Indigenous peoples who make up 10% of the state population. Reservations across the United States have reported a complete lack of support from the Bureau of Indian Affairs, the federal government, and state officials. In Washington state a request for PPE from the federal government resulted in the shipment of body bags.
In South Dakota, where governor Kirsti Noem, R, has refused to have a mask mandate and permitted events such as the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, Cheyenne River Sioux, and Oglala Sioux tribes established COVID-19 checkpoints to enter their reservations. Governor Noem sued in federal court to remove the checkpoints, but the courts supported tribal autonomy, and the checkpoints have persisted. Tribal leaders in South Dakota stated they had established the checkpoints to protect tribal members due to a lack of medical resources and PPE.
Inequality isn’t limited to Indigenous peoples. The respected medical journal The Lancet published a study on July 14, 2020, comparing the Bronx Montefiore Health System’s mortality rate before and after COVID-19. The study included over 505,000 patients in the system and concluded that the mortality rate of Blacks due to COVID was higher. Factors such as age and comorbidities could not explain the higher rate in the population.
Closer to home in Washington state, six percent of all COVID deaths are Black while making up four percent of the people. For Hispanics, the numbers are far worse, with 38% of state fatalities coming from the ethnic group, which makes up 13% of the population. COVID tore through Yakima County earlier this year, where state farmers fought against guidelines to protect farmworkers from the disease. County leaders took a strong anti-mask position, and the county sheriff refused to enforce regulations. When it was time for the early summer harvest in the agricultural county, officials had to fly patients to Seattle, Portland, and Spokane to relieve overloaded hospitals.
APM Research Labs has been compiling mortality statistics based on race for COVID since March, and it paints a grim picture. Only Asian Americans have a lower mortality rate for Coronavirus. For Black Americans, the mortality rate is double for whites. Despite the higher infection and mortality rates, the Kaiser Family Foundation concluded that minorities as a group were less likely to be tested for COVID-19, be sicker when tested, and require more treatment due to the delay in identifying patients. The study also stated about Black households, “they are more likely to be working in low-income jobs that cannot be done from home, to be living in larger households in densely populated areas, and to utilize public or shared modes of transportation.“
With the United States setting national and world records for the most positive tests in a day three days last week, the disparity is only getting worse. The IHME estimates that as many as 400,000 Americans could be dead from COVID by February 1, 2021, without drastic steps taken to lower infection rates. Back in Navajo County, Dikos Ntsaaígíí-19 may have impacted the national election. According to the Navajo Times, members of the nation voted in record numbers in Arizona, with 97% of the tribe voting for Joe Biden.
Hurricane Eta, the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is set to become the 12th named storm to strike the United States on Monday. At 1:00 PM PST, Tropical Storm Eta was located about 225 miles south-southeast of Miami, with maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predict Eta will cross the Florida Keys at a minimal Category I hurricane.
Hurricane warnings extended across the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortuga, including Florida Bay. Additionally, the weather service announced Tropical Storm Warnings from the Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood, including Lake Okeechobee. After striking the Florida Keys, forecasters predict Eta will hit the Florida coast for a second time later this week.
Hurricane Eta battered Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras before reemerging in the Atlantic as a tropical depression. In Guatemala, government officials reported at least 150 people were dead or missing as devastating floods and mudslides tore through the Central American nation. Official news from Nicaragua, where state media has suppressed information, has been scant with reports of only three fatalities. Honduran officials have reported at least 23 deaths and expect the death toll to rises. The Mexican government said as many as 20 deaths and Costa Rica claimed two Eta related deaths caused by a mudslide.
2020 has been a historic hurricane season, tied for the most storms in a single Atlantic hurricane season and the most named storms to strike the United States in a single season. Eta will mark the 12th storm to make US landfall; a typical hurricane season has roughly two per year. In the Atlantic, forecasters are watching two more tropical waves, creating the potential for the 29th and 30th named storms.
On November 6, 2020, we made the decision to declare Joe Biden the winner in Nevada, earning him 6 more electoral votes. With 270 electoral votes secured, Joe Biden has become President Elect.
America finished voting on Tuesday but the counting goes on. Our team continues the analysis and tracking of the results, as well as the ongoing events in Seattle and the surrounding area.
One of the best ways to support independent journalism is to like, follow, and/or subscribe on Facebook, Twitch, YouTube, and Periscope. You can also follow us on Twitter and Instagram. Now on to the latest updates!
November 6, 2020 – 6:13 PM PST – two men arrested in Pennsylvania associated with QAnon and Veterans for Trump
The two armed men arrested by Philadelphia police last night, have ties to the QAnon conspiracy theories and one of them is a founder of Veterans for Trump. Philadelphia police were operating on a tip from the FBI that the men were traveling from Virginia Beach, Virginia to Philadelphia. They were arrested without incident and are being held on weapons charges.
Pennsylvania: Joe Biden – 3,324,096 Donald Trump – 3,304,471
North Carolina Joe Biden: 2,655,858 Donald Trump: 2,655,858
Georgia: Joe Biden: 2,456,017 Donald Trump: 2,451,793
Arizona: Joe Biden: 1,571,723 (Winner) Donald Trump: 1,533,268
Nevada: Joe Biden: 632,558 (Winner) Donald Trump: 609,901
Alaska: Joe Biden: 118.602 Donald Trump: 63,992
November 6, 2020 – 11:30 AM PST – replay of our earlier studio broadcast
Previously recorded on November 6, 2020 at 11:00 AM
November 6, 2020 – 10:20 AM PST – President Elect Joe Biden
Based on all of the available data, specifically in Nevada, president elect Joe Biden has secured at least 270 electoral college votes, enough to become the 46th President of the United States of America.
We see no clear, legal, path for president Donald Trump to win the election now, even if the current vote counts in Georgia and North Carolina flip. We remain aligned with the Associated Press that president elect Biden has won Arizona.
Joe Biden has a 21,000 vote lead in Nevada, which is more than 2X stronger than Hilary Clinton’s margin of victory in 2016. Almost all remaining ballots to be counted are in Clark and Washoe counties, which have both trended for Biden. Finally, Nevada passed the gay marriage constitutional amendment, and officials called the measure passed last night. We believe given the alignment of the Democratic and Republican parties on the issue of gay marriage as a constitutionally protected right, as a strong indicator of how the final vote tally will conclude in Nevada.
Given the increasingly likely chances of Biden winning both Georgia and Pennsylvania, Donald Trump would have to win multiple legal challenges and recounts in a significant list of counties. In conclusion, President Donald Trump has no valid, legal path to win the 2020 election.
November 6, 2020 – 10:03 AM PST – Trump election win chances crumbled from coast-to-coast
Through the early morning hours, president Donald Trump received bad news from the Keystone State to the Silver States.
In Nevada, Biden grew his lead to more than 2 points, as the number of ballots left dwindled to less than 40,000. Biden has stretched his lead to almost 21,000 votes, 627,104 for Biden, 606,967 for Trump.
In Georgia, Biden extended his scant lead to 1,564 votes – 2,450,184 for Biden, and 2,448,620 to Trump. Stacy Abrahams and her efforts to drive the Black vote is getting credit for flipping the state to the Democrats.
In Arizona, Trump got the only crumbs of good news, where he continues to slowly close the gap on Biden, but Fox News and the AP remain steadfast that Biden will carry the state. Biden still holds a 1.4% lead 1,561,147 Biden to 1,517,368 Trump.
Finally in Pennsylvania, Biden took the lead as we expected on election night, as votes in mostly blue urban counties continue to be counted. Biden holds a narrow 12,000 ballot lead in the Keystone state 3,308,042 for Biden to 3,295,545 for Trump.
November 6, 2020 – 1:43 AM PST – Biden takes the lead in Georgia
Georgia has flipped blue with Joe Biden up 917 votes. Biden now has 2,449,371 to Trump’s 2,448,454. Malcontent News had forecasted that Biden would win Georgia by 2K to 4K votes total.
November 5, 2020 – 11:20 PM PST – Pennsylvania race on the brink of tipping to Biden
With 163,501 ballots remaining the margin between Biden and Trump is down to 18,229 votes. If we continue with our conservative math of 64% to Biden and 34% to Trump, Biden will pick up another 49,050 votes when it is all counted.
November 5, 2020 – 11:02 PM PST – the count goes on
We expected Georgia to be finished tonight (so did Georgia) and we expected Nevada to be declared. Neither happened and we move on to Friday. In Nevada, a constitutional amendment to protect gay marriage passed, making Nevada the first state in the nation to protect gay marriage at the constitutional level. Consider that a blinking light that Biden will win in Nevada.
In Georgia, there were at last report about 14,000 ballots left and about 1750 votes between Biden and Trump. If the 14,000 number is correct, we don’t see a path for Trump to win in Georgia and will become dependent on military and international ballots that can arrive by 5 PM tomorrow (ironic given he doesn’t want late ballots to count).
The gap between Biden and Trump in Pennsylvania is now 18.042 votes, and like Georgia, it doesn’t appear any good news will come out of the Keystone State tomorrow.
The difference in Arizona widens or shrinks, depending on what county the numbers are updated from, by Biden continues to hold a 50K to 60K vote count lead depending on the hour. Also in Arizona, armed right-wing terrorists (sorry, we don’t call them militias) are interfering with the vote count in Maricopa County per state and local officials, ironically slowing down the count in a place where the numbers are helping Trump.
Philadelphia police may have thwarted a domestic terror attack tonight. Two out of state men were arrested close to the Philadelphia Convention Center, where vote counts are ongoing. Philadelphia police are being tight-lipped on what weapons or devices they found in the vehicle.
The continued rhetoric by Trump and the lingering uncertainty is driving increasing unrest on election results.
David Obelcz
November 5, 2020 – 6:08 PM PST – 16,105 ballots left in Georgia
Trump’s lead has shrunk to 2,497 vote margin with 16,105 ballots. 4,800 of those are in Gwinnett County where Biden is winning 58/40 – so that is good for another 700 votes. If the remaining 12K (estimated) break 60/40, Biden will take the lead in GA.
November 5, 2020 – 5:19 PM PST – 19,000 ballots left in Georgia to count
The margin of votes between Biden and Trump in Georgia has shrunk to 3.635 with 19,000 ballots left.
If the split is 80/20 – Biden picks up 11,400 more votes If the split is 70/30 – Biden picks up 7,600 more votes If the split is 65/35 – Biden picks up 5,700 more votes If the split is 60/40 – Biden picks up 3,800 more votes
There are up to 8,900 more ballots for overseas and military that have until tomorrow to arrive. If the split is closer to 60/40, this bodes well for Trump. If the split is closer to 70/30, it is doubtful those ballots will close the Biden gap.
November 5, 2020 – 5:12 PM PST – multiple networks turn away from Trump televised statement
A number of networks turned away from a Trump statement claiming, once again, falsely, that there have been illegal votes, and irregularities in the election, and that there is a multi-state plot to steal the election from him. The networks decided to end the broadcast because they felt the speech was fundamentally dangerous. Fox News carried the statement but then admonished the President in commentary after, stating there is nothing to indicate there are any issues with ongoing vote counts or illegal votes.
November 5, 2020 – 4:53 PM PST – Federal judge dismisses Trump complaint about ballot count observations in PA
Judge Paul Diamond of the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, who was appointed by George W. Bush, tossed out complaints but Trump administration lawyers that they were being treated unfairly in being able to observe the Pennsylvania ballot count process. When asked if they had observers in the rooms or not, Jerome Marcus, the Trump campaign lawyer, had to admit they did.
In addition, Fox News is reporting they are seeing nothing to suggest any voting irregularities or vote count issues in any state they are watching.
November 5, 2020 – 4:19 PM PST – Biden makes gains in PA with 326,355 ballots to go
According to the Pennsylvania votepa.com website, there are 326,355 ballots left to count, and of those 326,348 are mail-in ballots. We had reported earlier today that if we look at who returned ballots in Pennsylvania, 64% were registered Democrats, 24% were registered Republicans, and 8% were listed as Independent. If we assume all Independent voters will vote for Trump, that would distribute the remaining votes (forecast) 208,863 Biden and 104,431 Trump. That would give Biden an edge of 104,432 votes. As we write this, 76,604 votes separate Trump and Biden in the Keystone state.
November 5, 2020 – 4:09 PM PST – Trump lead in GA under 4K votes
The latest numbers out of Georgia:
Trump – 2,445,53 Biden – 2,441.904
Down to 3,635 votes between the two candidates in the Peach State.
Georgia will almost certainly go to a recount, and we’re now into that +2K to +4K margin for Biden or Trump range we predicted two days ago.
November 5, 2020 – 2:09 PM PST – Trump lead in GA shrinks to under 10K votes, NV may get called for Biden
We have said for over a day that the final difference between Biden and Trump in Georgia will be between 2K and 4K votes, total. We estimate 24K ballots have been counted, 26K remain. The difference between Biden and Trump is now 9,500 votes.
If the remaining votes break 70% Biden, 30% Trump, Biden will come out on top by around 1K to 1.5K votes. If they break 65% Biden, 35% Trump, Trump will come out on top by around 500 to 1K votes. It is that close.
Nevada announced they had 190K ballots left to count, with 90% of those in blue Clark County. We may see the AP call Nevada to Biden.
November 5, 2020 – 10:09 AM PST – Biden increases lead in Nevada, Trump moves to stop ballot count
The Trump Administration continues legal wrangling to stop vote counts and sow seeds of distrust in the results. They are claiming, without any real evidence, that 10,000 votes in Nevada were cast from out-of-state people and there are “many irregularities.” Nevada officials have no comment, but even if all 10,000 votes are tossed out, it doesn’t close the gap in Nevada.
November 5, 2020 – 9:04 AM PST – GA update
Down to 14K votes between Trump and Biden.
November 5, 2020 – 8:50 AM PST – Another PA update
Pennsylvania is now reporting 581,000 ballots remaining to be counted with the margin between President Trump and Joe Biden down to 132K votes. Using the same numbers from our 8:00 AM update:
Biden projected votes: 371,840
Trump projected votes: 185,920 (that includes all Independents)
Third-party projected votes 23,240
The current margin between Trump and Biden: 132,613
If this math holds, Biden will win Pennsylvania.
David Obelcz
November 5, 2020 – 8:42 AM PST – [LOCAL] King County Sheriff will be appointed with council oversight
In local election news, King County voters decided that the King County Sheriff would no longer be an elected position, but appointed by the County Council. In addition, the council will have civilian oversight on the actions of the King County Sheriff and the deputies on the force. This isn’t a new initiative as a result of pressure from Black Lives Matter. The position previously was appointed and moved to an elected position.
November 5, 2020 – 8:00 AM PST – updates in GA, NC, PA, and NV
The big news will come out of Georgia today with officials there stating there will be a final count released today. As of this writing, less than 18,000 votes separate President Trump from Joe Biden with 50,000 ballots left to count. If those heavily blue ballots break 70% Biden and 30% Trump, Biden will win Georgia by about 2K votes (scroll down on our blog to the November 4, 3:36 PM update). When it’s all done in Georgia we’ll be surprised if the margin of victory for either candidate is more than 4,000 votes.
North Carolina is reporting there are about 116K ballots outstanding, and the count there could continue until November 12. Don’t expect a North Carolina announcement anytime soon, but these numbers favor Trump.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State is reporting 783,000 ballots remaining to be counted. The mail-in and absentee ballots cast are breaking down to 64% Democrat, 24% Republican, 8% Independent, and 4% other parties.
For simple math, we’ll lump all the Independent votes to Donald Trump for some back of the envelope analysis.
Biden projected votes: 501,102
Trump projected votes: 250,560 (that includes all Independents)
Third-party projected votes 31,338
The margin between Trump and Biden: 142,394
If this very conservative math holds, Biden will win Pennsylvania.
Nevada had stated that results would come at 9 AM today but has pushed that out again to noon.
Donald Trump needs to win every remaining state on the table except Nevada, and get a miracle in Arizona, to win a second term, which is seeming less likely this morning.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 8:15 PM PST – unless there is some big news tonight…
…we will keep this going tomorrow. Our prediction is Joe Biden will be declared the president-elect tomorrow. Stay tuned and good night!
November 4, 2020 – 6:47 PM PST – No winner will be declared in North Carolina tonight
By our math there about 174,000 ballots remaining to be counted in North Carolina with the margin between Biden and Trump at 76,701. On paper a Biden win is possible, but that is a steep hill to climb. North Carolina will not have results tonight.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 6:06 PM PST – No results from Nevada tonight folks
Nevada officials stated we would get an update tonight but now are saying we won’t get an update until 9:00 AM PST, Thursday.
November 4, 2020 – 5:34 PM PST – Trump sues to stop vote count in Chatham County Georgia
We ran an estimated number in our last liveblog update of 98,000 ballots left. Just as we hit, “update,” Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stated there are still 122,535 uncounted ballots remaining. This bodes well for Biden with Trump clinging to a narrow lead of 37,634 votes.
In a sign that Trump may be losing confidence in his prospects, his campaign has sued Georgia to stop vote counting in Chatham county, claiming irregularities. They have added they plan to sue in 12 other counties.
November 4, 2020 – 5:26 PM PST – Biden closing the gap in Georgia – maybe not enough
By our math, with 98% of ballots counted, there are about 98,000 ballots left to count in Georgia. The gap between Trump and Biden is down to 37,634 votes, with most of those 98,000 ballots in dark blue Democratic, urban and suburban counties. This slightly favors Trump, but the margin is going to be wafer-thin.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 3:41 PM PST – Trump wins Maine District 2
President Donald Trump has picked up Maine District 2 and earned 1 electoral vote. Joe Biden picked up Maine and its 3 electoral votes earlier. Maine and Nebraska distribute their electoral votes, in part to make themselves more relevant for national elections.
Our electoral vote count stands at 264 for Biden and 214 for Trump.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 3:36 PM PST – Trump lead in Georgia continues to dwindle
Vote counting continues in Georgia where officials are providing frequent updates. The margin of victory is down to 54,000 votes. Most red counties have fully counted, with larger population centers going through the last ballots.
By our math, if the margins maintain in each county and ballots are invalidated, Biden could come out on top by 2,000 to 4,000 votes, the margin is that narrow. So it won’t take a big shift in the margin of victory in a couple of counties, or many ballots to have errors or be invalidated to shift the race.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 2:45 PM PST – Loren Culp out of a job
In the same video where Loren Culp made a baseless claim of election irregularities and demanded all votes be counted (an ironic position for the pro-Trump gubernatorial candidate), he also revealed the city of Republic, Washington had “defunded” their police department resulting in his dismissal as police chief.
In reality, the small town of Republic is shifting its budget to receive law enforcement from Ferry County, a common practice in smaller, rural communities.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 1:59 PM PST – Biden declared the winner in Michigan
Biden has been declared the winner in Michigan by multiple sources, mirroring a narrow win in neighboring Wisconsin. With the 16 electoral votes that Joe Biden has picked up – the election stands at 264 – 213.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 1:59 PM PST – Nevada officials walk back no update until Thursday
Late last night after we shut it down, Nevada officials communicated they would not have an update on their vote count until Thursday. Officials are now saying they will have an update today. As of this writing, Joe Biden is leading in Nevada with 75% of the ballots counted. Most of the ballots remaining are in the more densely populated areas around Reno and Las Vegas.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 1:52 PM PST – Culp refuses to concede in Washington state governor race
Claiming voter irregularities Culp refuses to concede in a social media video he made a short time. He makes no basis beyond, “the numbers don’t add up.”
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 12:45 PM PST – Wisconsin called for Biden
Who would have thought that Kenosha would play a central role in American politics in 2020? As Wisconsin counted ballots through the night and early morning, Kenosha, Milwaukee, and Green Bay tipped the balance to Joe Biden as we had forecasted last night
248-213 is the electoral vote count
With Biden picking up Arizona, another state we predicted would go to Biden, Donald Trump has almost no legal path to win the 2020 election. Fulton County in Georgia, where Atlanta is located, had to stop counting ballots due to a water main breaking. Reports are no ballots were damaged but that ballot counters were sent home due to the conditions there were working in. The counting restarted this morning and as expected, the lead Trump held is closing. The question remains, is it enough. If Trump were to lose Georgia, which is the most likely state to certified election results again (or Nevada), Trump can no longer win a path to the White House.
David Obelcz
November 4, 2020 – 9:00 AM PST – replay of our election night studio broadcast
November 3, 2020 – 10:58 pm PST – Signing off for the night –
Please join us tomorrow for more election 2020 coverage.
November 3, 2020 – 10:34 pm PST – Biden gains 1 in Nebraska #2
As more votes get tallied the electoral votes got reallocated in Nebraska #2. 1 electoral college vote branched off from the original 5 for trump. This gives Joe Biden a new total of 224 electoral college votes. He needs 46 more votes to win the presidency. Trump currently has 213 electoral college votes and 102 remain unclaimed.
The polls have closed and the race has been called. To no ones surprise Donald Trump has taken the win for the presidential race in Texas. This win gives Trump 38 more electoral college votes. Donald Trump now has 212 electoral college votes. He needs a total of 270 votes in order to win the presidency. At this time it is unlikely that we will know the clear winner of the United States Presidential election.
In a late night election results tally, Donald Trump won the race in Florida. This win gives him 29 electoral college votes for a new total of 174 votes. In order to win the presidency he will need 270 electoral college votes.
November 3, 2020- 9:22 pm PST – Trump takes Montana in election race
These wins don’t really come as a surprise as the last of the votes come in for the night. Donald Trump has won both Iowa and Montana. The win in Iowa gives Trump 6 extra votes and Montana gives him 3 electoral college votes. These wins land trump with a total of 145 electoral college votes. He needs 125 more electoral college votes to win the election.
November 3, 2020 – 9:15 pm PST – Biden wins Hawaii and Minnesota
The night begins to close and more results come in. Joe Biden has won Hawaii giving him 4 more electoral college votes. He has also won Minnesota which was surprising to some. This win gives Biden 10 electoral votes for a total of 213. In order to win the presidency Joe Biden will need 270 electoral college votes.
November 3, 2020 – 9:15 pm PST – Trump takes Ohio
In a tight race all night the vote has finally been called. To no ones surprise Donald Trump takes Ohio. This win gives Trump 18 more electoral votes. Donald Trump now has 136 electoral votes and needs a total of 270 to win.
November 3, 2020 – 8:15 pm PST – Trump takes a win in Utah
The votes are mostly counted and race is being called. Donald Trump takes the electoral college votes in the state of Utah. This win gives him an additional 6 votes. Trump now has 118 electoral college votes and needs 270 to win.
November 3, 2020 – 8:02 pm PST – Biden wins New Hampshire
The votes are being tallied and New Hampshire has been called. Joe Biden has won the race in New Hampshire giving him 4 more electoral college votes. Biden’s current tally is at 209 electoral college votes. He will need 270 to win the presidency.
November 3, 2020 – 8:02 pm PST – Trump wins Idaho
The night draws to a close and the polls have closed. Donald Trump won the electoral college vote in Idaho. This gives him a boost of 4 more electoral college votes for a total of 112. Donald Trump needs 270 electoral votes to be re-elected.
November 3, 2020 – 8:02 pm PST – Biden wins WA, OR, and CA
The polls have closed as the night draws closer to an end. Joe Biden has won the electoral college votes in Washington, Oregon, and California. These wins give Biden 12, 7, and 55 respectively. These wins give Biden a total of 205 electoral college votes. He needs 270 to win the presidency.
November 3, 2020 – 7:36 pm PST – Trump wins electoral votes in Missouri
The polls have closed and the votes are in. Donald Trump has won the state of Missouri. This gives him an additional 10 votes for a total of 108. In order to win the presidency he only needs 270 electoral votes.
November 3, 2020 – 7:01 pm PST – Trump wins the race in Kansas
The night draws to a close and the polls in Kansas have closed. Donald Trump gains 6 electoral college votes for a total of 98. He needs 270 to win. This was not a surprise win as Kansas is typically a red-leaning state.
November 3, 2020 – 6:58 pm PST – Sarah McBride wins seat in US Senate
Sarah McBride who is the first openly trans woman in United States history to win a seat in the US Senate for Delaware. This is a historic win and will pave the way for future elected officials who represent the LGBTQIA+ community.
The polls have closed. Joe Biden has won the race in Colorado. This win gives him 9 more electoral college votes. Joe Biden now has 131 electoral college votes. Similar to other state races we have announced so far, this comes as not much of a surprise. He needs 270 total votes in order to win.
November 3, 2020 – 6:30 pm PST – Biden wins District of Columbia
The polls have closed and the race has been called. Joe Biden has won the District of Columbia (Washington D.C.). This win gives him 3 more electoral college votes. Currently Joe Biden has 122 votes and needs 270 to win.
November 3, 2020 – 6 pm PST – Trump wins LA, NE, SD, ND, and WY
The polls have now closed and the races are being called. Donald Trump has won the race in Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota and Wyoming. These state race wins give him 8, 5, 3, 3, and 3 electoral college votes respectively. Donald Trump now has a total of 94 votes, he will need 270 to win.
November 3, 2020 6 pm PST Biden wins New York and New Mexico
The polls have now closed and votes are being tallied. Joe Biden has won both New York and New Mexico. New York gives Biden 29 more votes and New Mexico gives him 5 electoral college votes. Joe Biden now has 119 total electoral college votes and he needs 270 to win.
November 3, 2020 – 5:56 pm PST- Indiana goes to Trump
The polls have closed and the votes are being tallied. The race in Indiana has been called for Donald Trump. This gives him 11 more electoral college votes. He currently now sits at 72 votes. Donald Trump will need 270 electoral college votes minimum to win the election.
November 3, 2020 – 5:30 pm PST – Nevada (Clark County) to extend polls until 8 PM
A judge out of Las Vegas has just ruled that some of the polling places in Clark County are to stay open until 8 pm (local time) due to late openings.
November 3, 2020 – 5:30 PM PST – Arkansas goes to Trump
The polls have closed and votes have been counted. Donald Trump has won the race in Arkansas. This win gives him 6 votes. No surprises with this win similar to the other wins that have occurred. He now has 61 total electoral college votes. Trump will need 270 to win.
November 3, 2020 – 5:22 PM PST – Biden wins Rhode Island
Biden has won the popular vote in Rhode Island. This win gives him 4 more electoral college votes. His total is currently standing at 85 electoral college votes. He needs 270 total to win.
November 3 2020 – 5:21 PM PST – Marojorie Greene wins the House seat in Georgia
Marjorie Greene who is a supporter of QANON has just won the House seat in Georgia.
November 3, 2020 – 5:18 PM PST – Cory Booker wins
The polls have now closed in New Jersey and Cory Booker has been called for this US Senate race. Cory Booker maintains his seat.
The polls have now closed in Kentucky and the race has been called for Mitch McConnell for the US Senate race.
November 3, 2020 – 5PM PST – Biden wins MD, DE, NJ, CT, MA, and ILL
The polls have closed in Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Illinois. Maryland gives Joe Biden 13 votes, Delaware gives 3 , New Jersey has 14, Connecticut gives 7, Massachusetts gives 11, and Illinois gives 20 electoral votes. These wins put Joe Biden at 81 electoral votes. A total of 270 votes are needed to win the election.
The polls have closed in these states. The votes have been tallied to the point where the race is being called. OK gives him 7, AL gives him 9 votes, MS gives him 6, and TN gives him 11. Currently Donald Trump has 55 electoral votes. None of these states are surprises. In order to win either party needs 270 electoral votes.
November 3, 2020 – 5 PM PST – Polls extended in North Carolina
North Carolina is extending the polling hours at ten locations. This is likely to meet the large demand from people waiting in line to vote. This not unprecedented, this has occurred in 2016 as well. The polls will stay open until 8:15 EST.
November 3, 2020 – 4:58 PM PST – South Carolina called for Trump
Polls have closed in South Carolina. Donald Trump has gained 9 electoral votes. Currently he is sitting at 22 electoral college votes. He needs 270 to win the presidency.
November 3, 2020 – 4:55 PM PST – US Senate Seats 36 D and 31 R
Currently the numbers are sitting at 36 for Democrats in the US Senate race and 31 for Republicans. Polls are starting to close and votes are being counted. Expect the numbers to update accordingly.
November 3, 2020 – 4:38 PM PST – Biden gains electoral votes in Virginia
The polls have closed in Virginia and the state has been called for Biden. Joe Biden has gained 13 electoral votes. Joe Biden now has 16 electoral votes. 270 total are needed for the presidency to be won.
November 3, 2020 – 4:37 PM PST – Trump gains electoral votes in W.Virginia
West Virginia polls have now closed. Donald Trump has gained 5 electoral college votes from this gain. His total is now at 13 total votes. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
November 3, 2020 – 4:28 PM PST – Key state voting numbers
Several key states are already posting early voting numbers. A large increase in youth and under 30 voters has been noted in the States TX, AZ, IA, NC, MI and GA.
Florida has seen a smaller increase in younger voters but not as large as the above mentioned.
PA is reporting that they have actually had a decrease in under 30 voters. The current numbers have now dropped below those that voted in 2016.
November 3, 2020 – 4 PM PST – Kentucky goes to Trump
Polls have now closed in Kentucky. He gains 8 electoral votes by taking Kentucky. Little surprise here, Kentucky is a fairly conservative state.
November 3, 2020 – 4 PM PST – Vermont goes to Biden
The polls have now closed in Vermont. Biden has gained 3 electoral votes by taking Vermont. Vermont is typically a democratic state so very little surprise here.
November 3, 2020 – 2:30 PM PST – Trump may call the election before an official winner is declared
There is a very real possibility that Donald Trump may declare himself the winner of the election before votes are counted, or all polls have closed. A widely shared interview with Axios, had Trump stating he would declare himself the winner, if he had an electoral lead, by midnight on Tuesday. It is worth noting that polls in Alaska don’t close until 4 AM EST on Monday.
Like everyone else covering the election, we are committed to a legal and fair process. In key battleground states like Pennsylvania, mail-inn ballots counts didn’t start until 7 AM today. In states such as Washington, Colorado, and Oregon, which are all mail-in, full results normally take days. In 2016, the final results in New Hampshire took weeks.
Everyone who is worried should take a deep breath, drink your favorite libation, and hope that the Constitutional process is adhered to by all three branches of the government.
David Obelcz
November 3, 2020 – 11:24 AM PST – FBI investigation robocalls telling people not to vote
Residents in Michigan are being flooded with robocalls spreading election misinformation and telling them not to vote today. Residents of Flint, Michigan, in particular, received numerous calls. The FBI stated this is voter suppression and intimidation, but they deal with these events in every election. Officials are trying to counter the misinformation campaign by advising voters to exercise their rights.
David Obelcz
November 3, 2020 – 10:50 AM PST – record number early votes cast
Americans are motivated in the 2020 election and want their voices heard. For early voting, 100.8 million ballots were cast nationally, the highest level of voter engagement since 1908. In comparison, 136.6 million total ballots were cast in the 2016 election. Our home state of Washington is predicting that voter participation could be as high as 90%.
Our official in-studio coverage will begin at 3:50 PM.
David Obelcz
November 2, 2020 – 9:44 PM PST – Millsfield, NH results are in
Like Dixville Notch, Millsfield also votes at midnight. Twenty-one ballots were cast and it was a near repeat from 2016 – Trump 16, Clinton, 4, Sanders 1. Tonight’s results
Joe Biden (D) – 5
Donald Trump (R) – 16
Jo Jorgensen (L) – 0
November 2, 2020 – 9:22 PM PST – our final election forecast
We’ve been forecasting the election and updating our prediction about weekly. Our last entry was on Monday, November 2. You can read our election prediction.
Dixville Notch is a fun thing to follow, and historically, many candidates made a point to visit the village in New Hampshire. As a marker for the national election, five votes do not represent a statistically valid sample, but it does provide a tiny insight into what rural voters in New Hampshire are thinking.
David Obelcz
November 2, 2020 – 9:07 PM PST – Dixville Notch results are in
Voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire gathered following social distancing protocols where five ballots were cast. Because of COVID-19, the number of live votes was reduced from previous years. In 2016, eight people voted with votes 4 for Hilary Clinton, 2 for Donald Trump, 1 for Gary Johnson, and 1 for Mitt Romney. The 2020 results are:
Joe Biden (D) – 5
Donald Trump (R) – 0
Jo Jorgensen (L) – 0
Trump's plan to declare victory after Dixville Notch appears to be foiled.
The first in-person election day polls will open in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, in seven hours. With over 92-million early and mail-in ballots already submitted, 67% of all the votes of 2016, it is likely that in-person voting will play a smaller role in 2020.
Reading the polls feels like a fool’s errand this year due to a litany of variables. A record number of new voters, young voters, and voters participating in the general election that did not participate in the primaries make identifying trends harder. Earlier voters cast their ballots when polls showed a wider race, so it is hard to gauge how much impact the tightening polls have.
Trump is the first President in modern history to never have his approval rating go above 50%, sans one day in 2017, where he polled at 50.1%. Biden has never tracked under 50% support in any poll going back to hypothetical Trump v Biden surveys 19 months ago. Although the race is tightening, it isn’t close to 2016; no third-party candidates are tracking 5% to 7% support, and undecideds are less than 4% of all voters. The day of exit polls will be problematic because so many people have already voted. Then there are the Trafalgar polls, which show a Trump win. Does anyone remember Zogby and their forecast for a Bush (43) win?
In our analysis of all available data, we continue to forecast that Trump has a narrow path to the White House, but it will be like trying to thread a needle with your eyes closed. Donald Trump has to win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Without all four of these states, he has no clear path to the White House.
If we look at these four states, Trump will likely win Georgia and Florida, and has a better than a coin toss chance of winning North Carolina. If we apply a Hilary Clinton 2016 grade polling error in Pennsylvania, Trump still can’t win. If we use a Hilary Clinton 2016 grade polling error in Pennsylvania and say Trump’s lawyers throw out one-percent of all ballots (a significant number), and all of them are Biden ballots, Trump still can’t win. The same goes for Wisconsin. If we apply a Hilary Clinton grade polling error and throw out 1% of all Biden votes, Trump still can’t win.
I don’t consider Nevada a battleground, as this is behind Biden’s firewall. Biden will win the following battleground states/districts:
Maine District 2
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Michigan
Wisconsin
Arizona
Trump will win the following battleground states/districts:
North Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Ohio
Iowa
Texas
Nebraska District 2
In our final assessment, we believe Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States, with a 290 – 248 victory.
Malcontent News will be providing continuous coverage of the 2020 Presidential election across all of our channels. David “The Malcontent,” Renee, Sarah, Ty, and Boomer, along with a team of 15 moderators, admins, and researchers will be live from Studio 2 starting at 3:50 PM PST.
We’ll be providing analysis and tracking the presidential and Senate races. In addition, as we wait for results, we’ll do replays of key events in Seattle over the last five months such as June 6 on the Western Barricade, the August 16 SPOG protest, and the Labor Day SPOG protest. We will play the mini-documentary Inequality In America: The Challenge of a Generation as well as the full interview with Eleanor Jones, and a replay of the Elaine Simons interview discussing the death of her foster son Jesse Sarey. We will also do replays of Classic Elisha from August 9 and the Marshall Law Band from October 26.
Our broadcast day is planned to continue until 1:00 AM PST when the state of Hawaii closes polls. We will have to go off the air briefly at 11:45 PM due to the limitations of YouTube, Facebook, and Periscope, which allow streams for no longer than 8 hours.
How can I watch and follow
We will be using all of our channels on election night.
Live blog on Malcontent News – this will include our Twitch live feed from Studio 2
We will be aggregating information from the Secretary of State from each state and the District of Columbia, as well as monitoring the Associated Press. The Associated Press has committed to not calling a state for a candidate until there is no possible, legal way for the front runner to be defeated in that state. We will provide our analysis on where we think a county or state vote count will land, including commentary that an election call should be made soon, but we will not make an independent decision before the Associated Press. We also will not discuss the vote count in states in multiple timezones, most critically, Florida, Michigan, and Texas, until all polls are closed in the respective state.
How we will moderate channels
We will have moderators across all four of our broadcast channels on election night, a first for Malcontent News to provide a moderated environment for bipartisan discussion and respectful discord. Conspiracy theories, spam, and hateful comments will be deleted. Moderators plan to operate with a light touch for the night, but that depends on you, the viewer. If channels get brigaded we will increase moderation. If our capacity becomes overrun we will disable the on-screen chat.
How we will cover potential unrest
If there is widespread unrest, violence, or voter intimidation on election day, we have arrangements with some independent journalists to transmit their streams. We will switch to available streams if and when they become available. We also have an agreement with a local affiliate to use their coverage and news stories, and if needed for local coverage of unrest specifically, we will move to their channel. Given that the mainstream media has been harassed by all sides, it is unlikely they will have better coverage than our independent journalist community. If further, unthinkable action happens, such as the suspension of the election, domestic terrorist attacks on government buildings, or an announcement of the invalidation of the election by the federal government, we’re in the same uncharted water as you.
How we will cover candidates statements of victory or concession
We will go to C-Span as part of our coverage for candidate victory or concession statements.
How we will cover post-election
We will be providing coverage of any protests, events, rallies, or demonstrations as our capacity allows in the days after the election.
“Our Nation solemnly stands alongside the mothers and fathers who are no longer able to see their children grow up and have families of their own and for the sons and daughters who have lost a parent or loved one at the hands of someone who never should have been inside our country in the first place.”
Donald Trump – President of the United States
Viewed as a slap in the face by the Mexican community November 1 is also Dia De Los Muertos holiday and the day picked by the Trump Administration to recognize National Day of Remembrance for Americans Killed by Illegal Aliens.
Dia De Los Muertos, literally translated to The Day of the Dead, blends pre-Columbian Mesoamerica and Aztec rituals, with European pagan and the Catholic Church All Souls Day. The celebration honors deceased family members. Celebrants believe the border between the spirit world and the real world dissolve one day a year. The souls of the dead return to be among the living to feast, drink, play music, and dance with those they loved. To honor their presence, family members treat the souls as cherished guests leaving favorite foods at their gravesites and gifts and offerings on an ofrenda, or offering.
This isn’t the first time that the Trump administration has picked a date to coincide with significant events in the Black, Indigenous, and Persons of Color (BIPOC) communities. Early this year, Trump initially picked June 19, also known as Juneteenth, for his Tulsa, Oaklahoma rally. That rally turned into a superspreader event for COVID-19. The proclamation is also riddled with falsehoods and exaggerated facts. The statement there is 400 miles of new fence along the Mexico border is factually accurate, but almost all of that is a replacement fence that was budgeted before Trump took office.
Trump did his photo opportunity at Saint John’s Episcopal Church on June 1, the same day Black Wall Street was burned and hundreds killed in Tulsa, Oklahoma in 1921. The administration initially picked June 19, also known as Juneteenth, as the date for a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The event was moved after pressure from the GOP and Oklahoma officials.
The declaration has echoes of fascist regimes such as Nazi Germany, where Adolph Hitler made similar proclamations against Jews and would publish the list of Jewish crimes in state-owned newspapers.
David Obelcz contributed to this story.
Journalists, activists, and researchers defending the First Amendment
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