Tag Archives: delta variant

10 Omicron cases in 5 states – local, state, national, and global COVID update for December 2, 2021

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[KING COUNTY, Wash.] – (MTN) Officials in five states have reported Omicron cases from Hawaii to New York, as the world races to better understand the danger the new variant presents.

In Washington, the first set of local COVID data was made available in a week, indicating that hospitalizations are plateaued again and new cases are down. Twenty-six counties no longer have high rates of transmission. There was an increase in new cases among 20 to 49-year-olds compared to last week.

Governor Jay Inslee reported that FEMA was sending two mobile vaccination clinics to King County, with the first one opening on December 20 in Federal Way.

One-third of the 3.3 million booster eligible residents of Washington have leveled up, while in some areas people are searching for appointments to get a third dose.

Almost 75% of residents age 12 and over are now fully vaccinated, and 17% of all Washington children ages 5 to 11 have received at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

Locally, new COVID cases in the Bellevue, Lake Washington, and Northshore School Districts were down from last week. Vaccination rates for children 5 to 11 that live in the three districts are remarkable with some zip codes reporting almost 60% of all kids already receiving their first dose.

In national news, the United States has confirmed ten Omicron variant cases in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, and New York. The infections in Hawaii, Minnesota, and several in New York were caused by community transmission.

President Joe Biden announced new programs to try and combat the spread of COVID in the United States, but Republicans in the Senate threatened to have the United States default on the national debt if he implemented meaningful strict measures.

In South Africa officials are becoming increasingly alarmed as new cases and hospitalizations increase exponentially. The Gauteng Province, home to 15.7 million is the hardest hit, but cases were increasing across the nation. Officials there reported COVID hospitalizations increased more than 23% overnight, and ICU admissions jumped almost 40%.

A study published tonight from South Africa reported that people relying on natural immunity had a 240% higher chance of reinfection with the Omicron variant, compared to the Beta or Delta variants.

In disinformation, we explore the claim that the Omicron variant is no worse than a cold or flu.

This update uses the latest data from the Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH), released on December 02, 2021.


hospitalsschoolslocalnationalglobal updatesdisinformation

In August, King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin mentioned the N95 Project as a trusted source for N95 masks. A check on the website showed that a 50 count box of N95 masks are available for $40.00, and a package of 10 count children sized KN95 masks are available for $10.50. We recommend wearing N95 or KN95 masks indoors as they provide the best protection against COVID when properly fitted.

No promotional consideration has been given, or requested from the n95 project or any manufacturer of masks

Washington State Update for December 2, 2021

Washington state Covid-19 update

After a six-day break from updated and accurate data from the Washington State Department of Health, we’re back. A week ago the question was how much would Thanksgiving travel impact new case rates. The Omicron variant has changed the plot.

Vaccination data for the state was updated. A couple of counties had numbers drop from last week. This has happened before as data gets validated but this update dropped Grant County below 50% – so the brackets changed.

Skagit and Whatcom Counties new cases rates are down about 40% from three weeks ago. The surge of cases among mostly unvaccinated residents is winding down. New

New cases have decreased a smidge compared to last week but do not reveal any significant trends.

Percent of Total Population Fully VaccinatedTotal Population in GroupAverage 14-Day New Case Rate
70.00% or above (3 counties)2,343,250127.7
60.00% to 69.99% (5 counties)1,374,000261.0
50.00% to 59.99% (15 counties)3,420,400227.8
40.00% to 49.99% (9 counties)487,375234.7
32.30% to 39.99% (6 counties)151,850176.7
14-Day New Covid-19 Cases per 100K average by Vaccination Rate for Total Population, Adjusted for Population by County

Through December 2, Washington’s statewide 14-day rolling average is 203.2 Covid-19 cases per 100K, and the 7 day rolling average is 82.7.

No counties have a case rate over 400.0. per 100,000 residents. Twenty-six counties representing 5.65 million Washingtonians have a 7 day moving average case rate under 100.

New cases by age declined for every age group except 20 to 49-year-olds, which increased. Hospitalizations for ages 20 to 34 also increased.

Age Group7-Day Case Rate7-Day Hospitalization Rate
Ages 0-1191.50.1
Ages 12-1983.30.5
Ages 20-34100.19.1
Ages 35-49100.1 (not a typo)5.5
Ages 50-6473.88.8
Ages 65-7944.110.2
Ages 80+40.617.0
7-day case rate and 7-day hospitalization rate is per 100K within the age group – the target for 7-day case rate is <25.0, but there are other factors such as vaccination rates within the age groups, how many total tests within the 7-day period, and the positivity rate within each age group

The USA Today COVID Tracker has not been updated since November 30 but reports 9,303 Washingtonians have died from Covid-19 related illness.

FEMA sending mobile vaccination clinics to Washington

Governor Jay Inslee announced that FEMA would be sending two mobile vaccination clinics to Washington. The first site will open on December 20 in Federal Way and is slated to operate for a month. A second location is planned but a date and location were not announced.

“This is great news in the ongoing fight against COVID. I am grateful for our strong partnership with the federal government, and these FEMA Family Mobilization Clinics coming to King County is a great result of that partnership,” said Inslee. “This is an innovative model that will help increase equitable access to vaccination for all Washingtonians.”

A constellation of partners is working with FEMA including the Washington State Department of Health, the King County Executive’s Office, and Seattle & King County Public Health.

Some people in Western Washington have reported problems in securing vaccination appointments for boosters due to high demand.

One-third of booster eligible Washingtonians have leveled up

The Washington State Department of Health reported 1.08 million of the 3.3 million eligible for boosters have rolled up their sleeves. There is significant evidence that vaccine and disease acquired immunity declines after five to seven months, but a number of factors such as age and other health issues can affect the duration.

There is some evidence within the genetic sequencing of the Omicron variant that disease-acquired immunity from previous mutations won’t be as strong as vaccine-based immunity.

Over 17% of Washington kids age 5 to 11 have received their first dose of the COVID vax

The Washington State Department of Health reported 116,121 children from 5 to 11 have received their first dose of the Pfizer COVID vaccine, about 17% of all eligible kids in Washington.

The Pfizer vaccine Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) was amended to include 5 to 11-year-olds. They receive two smaller doses and reach fully vaccinated after five weeks. Initial data indicates that due to the stronger immune response of children and adolescents, a booster or third dose is not needed. That could change with time or if another variant emerges that is vaccine-resistant.

Washington state approaching 75% of population 12 and older fully vaccinated

The Washington State Department of Health reported 80.8% of all Washingtonians 12 and older have received at least one dose of the COVID vaccine and 74.6% are fully vaccinated.

Although this is good news, Washington is starting to fall behind other states. The Mayo Clinic reported that Washington was in 10th place for 12 to 17-year-olds fully vaccinated, 9th place for 18 to 64-year-olds, and tied with 32 other states for first place for 65 and older.

Travel Advisories

Due to the confirmation of community transmission of the Omicron variant in the United States, we are advising our readers to reconsider air travel and recreational travel plans. Especially if those plans include going to places with large crowds or major events at enclosed buildings.

Thank you

Thank you to our new subscribers and those of you who have made one-time contributions. On behalf of the entire team, thank you for helping us keep the lights on!

King County, Washington is reporting over 85.0% of age eligible residents are vaccinated with at least one dose. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA has provided full approval of the Pfizer vaccine for anyone 16 and over and EUA approval for the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. The Pfizer vaccine has EUA approval for children 5 to 15 years old.

COVID vaccines and boosters are free for anyone 5 and older. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

Malcontent News

Hospital Status

It has been a week since the last report and hospital status has improved significantly while the number of COVID patients receiving care remains elevated. The Washington State Department of Health reported 89.4% of staffed acute care beds were occupied with 10.2% of patients infected with Covid-19. There are 706 COVID patients statewide with an estimated 212 in the ICU – 114 requiring ventilators.

Statewide, there are an estimated 753 acute care and 151ICU beds available.

On Wednesday, the 7 day rolling average hospital admission rate for new COVID patients was statistically the same as last week – 65.

Hospital RegionCountiesICU OccupancyICU COVID PatientsAcute Care OccupancyAcute Care COVID Patients
EastAdams, Asotin, Ferry, Garfield, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, Whitman88.3%19.9%86.7%10.0%
NorthIsland, San Juan, Skagit, Whatcom69.5%28.2%80.0%12.3%
North CentralChelan, Douglas, Grant, Okanogan91.1%34.1%70.4%12.9%
NorthwestClallam, Jefferson, Kitsap, Mason92.2%20.0%95.8%8.7%
Puget SoundKing, Pierce, Snohomish90.5%16.9%94.3%9.7%
South CentralBenton, Columbia, Franklin, Kittitas, Walla Walla, Yakima89.0%16.8%82.7%10.3%
SouthwestClark, Cowlitz, Klickitat, Skamania64.9%14.2%79.6%10.0%
WestGrays Harbor, Lewis, Pacific, Thurston88.6%18.3%92.3%13.1%
Hospital status by region – ICU Occupancy should be below 80%, ICU COVID Patients should be below 20%, Acute Care Occupancy should be below 80%, and Acute Care COVID Patients should be below 10%

School Readiness

School DistrictStatusLess than 10 Active Cases10 or More Active Cases
BellevueGREEN– Bellevue (2*)
– Interlake (2*)
– Odle (1*)
– Highland (1*)
– Newport (1*)
– Tyee (1*)
None
Lake WashingtonYELLOW– Blackwell (1*/4)
– Dickinson/Explorer (2*/7)
– Eastlake High (1*/3)
– Ella Baker (1*/0)
– Evergreen Middle School (1*/0)
– Finn Hill Middle School (2*/18)
– Inglewood Middle School (1*/0)
– Juanita High (2*/39)
– Kamiakin Middle School (2*/12)
– Keller (2*/7)
– Kirkland Middle School (1*/8)
– Lakeview Elementary (2*/2)
– Lake Washington High School (1*/7)
– Mead (2*/7)
– Northstar Middle School (12)
– Redmond High School (1*/10)
– Redmond Middle School (1*/19)
– Rush (2*/8)
– Thoreau (2*/6)
None
NorthshoreYELLOW– Bothell High School (3*/12)
– Canyon Creek Elementary (5**/11)

– Canyon Park Middle School (1*/4)
– Crystal Springs Elementary (1*/17)
– Fernwood Elementary (1*/0)
– Frank Love Elementary (1*/10)
– Kenmore Elementary (1*/6)
– Kenmore Middle School (4*/32)
– Kokanee Elementary (0/1)
– Leota Middle School (1*/2)
– Maywood Hills Elementary (3*/4)
– Moorlands Elementary (1*/2)
– Northshore Middle School (1*/13)
– Ruby Bridges Elementary (0/1)
– Shelton View Elementary (0/2)
– Skyview Middle School (1*/4)
– Sunrise Elementary (2*/2)
– Timbercrest Middle School (2*/0)
– Wellington Elementary (1*/1)
– Woodin Elementary (0/2)
Woodmore Elementary (0/4)
None
Local Districts Scorecard – * indicates positive cases only ** indicates 5 or more confirmed positive cases – (x*/y) x is positive cases and 7 quarantined, quarantined does not include positive cases

We redefined the school district statuses. Information for classroom and building closures has been a challenge to obtain, both for closures and reopening. We are adopting moving any school with more than ten active COVID cases reported into the red, and we’ve adjusted the third column to reflect this change.

Based on reader feedback, and improvement in the data we are receiving, we have adjusted how we are reporting data. The Lake Washington and Northshore School Districts are now reported as (X*/Y) or (X**/Y). X represents the number of positive cases while Y represents how many are in quarantine. The number in quarantine does not include positive cases. If there are two asterisks, that indicates five or more confirmed cases within the last 14 days at that school.

Confirmed COVID cases were down in the three school districts we track. The Bellevue School District did not have updated data for quarantined students today.

The Lake Washington School District updates data once a week, and we’ve had no parent confirmed reports on new COVID cases this week.

We continued to encourage parents to request daily updates from the Lake Washington School District. This change would bring the three school districts we track into alignment.

Bellevue-Bothell-Kirkland-Woodinville local COVID news

King County Public Health updated the vaccination rates by zip code and now reports the data from ages 5 and up. Vaccination rates for children between 5 to 11 remain remarkable for the region.

Percentage of King County Residents 5 and older who have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine, December 2, 2021
Zip CodePercent vaccinated, at least one dose, 5 to 11 years oldPercent vaccinated, at least one dose, 5 and older
9815546.8%92.5%
9802842.7%88.5%
9801137.2%85.2%
9803438.8%84.3%
9803359.5%93.5%
9807239.2%88.2%
9807735.7%80.2%
9805255.0%94.6%
9800451.3%>95.0%
9803944.6%90.7%
9800553.4%94.8%
9800732.3%88.0%
9800844.5%91.2%
9805346.0%92.9%
9807450.5%>95.0%
9807543.0%>95.0%
Vaccination rates with at least one dose

National Round-Up

Johns Hopkins University Cumulative Case Tracker reports 137,602 new cases and 1,960 deaths nationwide on Thursday. New cases continue to grow at a significant rate in the United States. There is no way to know if Omicron is driving the increase, but current data indicates that over 99% of new cases are Delta or one of its sublineages.

At least 10 Omicron COVID variant cases confirmed in the United States

Health officials in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, and New York confirmed at least one case of the Omicron variant in their states.

Yesterday, the Centers for Disease Control confirmed the first Omicron variant case in the United States. The travel-related case was an 18 to 49-year-old male tested in the San Francisco area. They were fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine but not eligible for a booster because six months hadn’t passed since their second shot. They returned from South Africa on November 22 and tested on November 29. They have mild symptoms and are quarantined at home.

Late tonight, California officials reported a second travel-related case in Los Angeles county. That person traveled from South Africa to Los Angeles via London and returned on November 22. They are fully vaccinated but did not receive a booster. They are experiencing mild symptoms and are quarantined at home. Health officials reported they have already contacted and tested all close contacts, and didn’t find any new cases.

This morning Minnesota officials reported a community transmission case. The person identified as male, traveled to New York City to attend an anime convention at the Javits Center from November 19 to 21. The event had 53,000 attendees. They were fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine and had received a booster in early November.

Around lunchtime, Colorado officials reported a travel-related case. The woman was fully vaccinated but had not received a booster. She told authorities she had worn a mask during all her travels and developed symptoms after returning home from southern Africa last week. She has mild symptoms and is quarantined at home.

In the late afternoon, New York Governor Kathy Hochul reported five cases in the metro New York City area. There wasn’t little information available on each case, which is a combination of community transmission and travel-related. Two were in Queens, two in Brooklyn, one in Suffolk County, and one was not identified. The condition and vaccination status weren’t readily available.

Close to press time, officials in Hawaii reported their first case of an unvaccinated individual. The person had not traveled so officials believe it was caused by community transmission. The person is unvaccinated and was previously infected with COVID. They were tested on November 29, and currently are experiencing moderate symptoms. The press release from the State of Hawaii Department of Health did not indicate if they were hospitalized.

President Joe Biden announces winter battle plan to fight COVID

Under the threat of letting the United States default on its national debt, President Joe Biden conceded he would not push further vaccine mandates and announced other measures to combat COVID and the Omicron variant.

  • Requiring travelers entering the country by air to test negative for Covid-19 within a day of departure, regardless of vaccination status or nationality
  • Extending the requirement that masks be worn on airplanes, trains and public transportation to March 18
  • Requiring private health insurance companies to cover 100% of the cost of at-home tests for COVID
  • Public education to encourage 100 million eligible adults to get boosters shots

Editor’s Note: Consider us very underwhelmed.

Global update

New Omicron variant cases and hospitalizations skyrocket in South Africa

The number of new COVID cases and hospitalizations in South Africa is increasing at an alarming rate, with officials concerned that a record peak in infections is only 14 to 21 days away.

The South Africa Department of Health (SADOH) reported 74% of all detected COVID cases in November and 90% of new cases in the last week of the month were the Omicron variant. New cases have increased exponentially since November 24, the same day South African officials alerted the World Health Organization of the new variant.

Officials haven’t provided specifics on how much more transmissible Omicron is to previous variants, only saying that is higher.

New COVID cases in South Africa November 11 to December 2, 2021

SADOH reported 11,535 new cases today, an increase of 468% from a week ago. The 7 day rolling average for new cases jumped to 5,093. South Africa is testing about 52,000 people a day as the positivity rate increase at a significant rate. Officials reported 22.4% of the tests performed on Wednesday as positive for COVID infection.

In Gauteng Province, home to 15.7 million people, the number of hospitalized patients increased 23.4% overnight, jumping from 1,035 to 1,351 total patients. ICU patients increased by 38.5% while people needing oxygen held steady at 15% and ventilator use increased from 27 to 30.

Study from South Africa indicates COVID reinfection risk is very high

Researchers in South Africa and Canada reported data from South Africa suggests that, in contrast to the Beta and Delta, the Omicron variant of COVID demonstrates substantial population-level evidence for evasion of immunity from prior infection.

Researchers look at data from 2.8 million individuals who had lab-confirmed COVID positive tests at least 90 days before November 27, 2021. Among that group, they identified 35,670 lab-confirmed reinfections. The study found that reinfection with the Beta or Delta variant was infrequent, with disease acquired immunity providing protection. The research did not take the severity of illness into consideration for the initial or subsequent infections.

Reinfection rates from November 1 to November 27 increased by 240%, indicating that natural immunity may not provide much benefit. The results of the study could have implications on the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies, but more data is required.

The study was done by a number of respected individuals but has not been peer-reviewed.

Disinformation

Although some officials have stated that Omicron cases appear to be mild, disinformation campaigns have latched on to these statements and are claiming an infection is no worse than a cold or flu.

On November 26 and again on November 28, Dr. Angleique Coetzee said that the infections she saw in her private practice were ‘very mild.’ On November 28 she expanded her statement to say that the observation was ‘not anecdotally’ and other clinicians were echoing her findings. She also stated that hospitalizations were not increasing. Her comments were addressed in a World Health Organization Omicron update on the same day.

“There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants.  Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks.”

We do not believe that Dr. Coetzee is actively spreading disinformation and is speaking from her direct experience as a clinician. We also believe that people are misunderstanding what a ‘mild’ case of COVID means. A mild case is a case that doesn’t require clinical intervention or hospitalizations. With Covid-19 that’s more than a cold or the flu.

Dr. Rudo Mathivha is the head of critical care at Baragwanath Hospital in Soweto, a level 1 trauma center and the largest hospital in the Southern Hemisphere with 3,400 beds. Dr. Mathivha did a series of interviews in South Africa yesterday and reported she was seeing an increase in hospital admissions in children under 5 years old accompanied by a dramatic increase in patients needing high care and admission to the ICU.

“The number of ill patients presenting to hospitals has increased exponentially,” she said.

“We are seeing definitely a change in the demographic profile of patients. We are seeing toddlers under five presenting with symptoms and they are sick enough to require admission and to require supplemental oxygen.”

Researchers don’t know how severe Omicron infections will be at this time, and anyone making claims on the severity, either way, is not presenting informed information. Anyone claiming that Omicron is just a cold is spreading disinformation.

WHO holds emergency meeting as multiple nations implement Africa travel restrictions over new COVID variant concerns

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) World health officials are alarmed due to a new fast-spreading Covid-19 variant in South Africa causing the World Health Organization to hold an emergency meeting as Asian stock markets plunged and the Dow Jones futures dropped 735 points.

The new variant, so far identified as B.1.1.529 has not been named, but the WHO is expected to assign it a name today, likely the Nu variant.

The variant was first detected in Botswana but has quickly spread in South Africa and two travel-related cases have been confirmed in Hong Kong. Botswana officials stated the four detected cases are among fully vaccinated individuals. in South Africa, cases are increasing rapidly in Gauteng Province, home to Johannesburg and one of the largest air travel hubs on the continent. In the span of a week, new cases went from a cluster to growing so fast scientists believe it has achieved community spread.

Officials in the U.K. are taking no chances. Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced that six African nations – South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, and Eswatini – have been placed on the red list, placing strict rules on air travel.

Starting on Friday, any non-UK and Irish residents will be banned from entering England if they have been in the red list countries in the last ten days. Beginning Sunday, British nationals who have been in those countries will be required to quarantine upon entry. Additionally, health officials in the UK are asking anyone who has traveled to the impacted regions to get a PCR test as soon as possible.

South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said the travel restrictions “seems to have been rushed,” in a statement where he expressed concern over the impact on tourism and business.

Israel and Singapore joined the U.K. early on Friday and added Mozambique to their travel restriction lists.

New case rate growth is much faster than Delta, which indicates the potential for a very high R0, or “r-naught,” which is the measure of how transmissible a communicable disease is. In little more than two weeks, B.1.1.529 has grown to almost 90% of all detected cases in South Africa.

According to Johns Hopkins University, only 24.11% of South Africans are fully vaccinated which would aid a new variant to spread unchecked. Health officials in South Africa and with the WHO are concerned that the new variant is circulating more widely than current data suggests.

The B.1.1.529 has more than 50 mutations, which is significantly higher than any other viable variant previously seen. More than 30 of those alternations are changes to the spike protein, which is the mechanism that enables the SARS-CoV-2 virus to identify hosts cell and is the primary target of the body’s immune response.

B.1.1.529 has more than twice the number of mutations as the Delta variant

In a report published by the Journal Nature, Penny Moore, a virologist at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, indicated that computer models suggest not only does B.1.1.529 have mutations that are already known to aid in evading an immune response from B cells but could fool the body’s T cells.

B cells do the yeoman’s work of fighting virus infections, but have a shorter memory and can be tricked by a smaller set of mutations. T cells are the second line of immune defense with better memory and capabilities to spot mutations. When T cells identify a threat that was initially missed, they summon B cells to aid in the response. This is how disease acquired and vaccine immune response works. If the new variant is capable of evading T cells then the benefits of vaccine immunity would be reduced and disease acquired immunity could be rendered ineffective.

Disease acquired and vaccine immunity works the same. Antibodies bind to the spike proteins preventing the virus from entering cells so it can replicate. If the antibodies can’t bind to spike mutations and the mutations still enable the SARS-CoV-2 virus to identify host cells, the virus can spread inside the body unchecked causing a Covid-19 infection.

Another challenge is if these findings are accurate – the new variant may be capable of outmaneuvering monoclonal antibodies – blunting a critical early treatment.

One mutation is helping scientists track the spread of the new variant. A specific mutation to the spike protein enables researchers to identify the variant through a standard PCR test instead of waiting for genomic sequencing.

Currently, there are more questions than answers. Researchers know the new variant is spreading rapidly in South Africa and causing a new surge. What is not known is if the rapid spread is being driven by a mostly unvaccinated population or because it is more transmissible. It also is not known if the new variant causes equal, more severe, or mild illness. There is no data about the capability the new antivirals Molnupiravir and Paxlovid could have in fighting B.1.1.529.

It is important to note that Beta, Gamma, and Mu were previous variants found to have high resistance to vaccine and disease acquired immunity but weren’t very transmissible. All three variants faded out because Delta was more contagious. In the simplest terms, Delta outbred the other variants. A key requirement for a new variant to spread rapidly would be the capability to outrun Delta.

Most important of all, there is no concrete scientific evidence that B1.1.529 is evading viral vector or mRNA-based vaccines. Previous variants have taken months to identify while this one was found, sequenced, and placed under investigation in a matter of days.

No cases have been detected in North America or any United States territories.

COVID cases are exploding in Washington as Delta variant spreads among the unvaccinated

[OLYMPIA, Wash] – (MTN) New cases of COVID are exploding as the latest data from the Washington State Department of Health indicates under testing, high positivity rates, and a dwindling number of ICU beds statewide. Analyzing population, vaccination rate, and COVID positive rates in Washington’s 39 counties shows that regions with lower vaccination rates are driving the increase in statewide numbers.

As of August 3, the 7-day rolling average of new coronavirus cases detected statewide was 1,788, up 510% from July 1. Hospitalization now exceeds the Third Wave April 27 peak. Washington state is down to 203 ICU beds statewide, and 17.4% of ICU patients are being treated for COVID. Persons under 65 now make up the majority of hospitalized patients.

Washington State Department of Health Dashboard for COVID patients in the ICU – August 5, 2021

Malcontent News pulled the vaccination data from the Washington State Department of Health COVID Dashboard and population by county data from the United States Census. County-by-county COVID positivity rates were taken from the Washington State Department of Health website, using the most recent data available through July 29.

Washington state rate of 100K newly diagnosed COVID cases based on a 14-day rolling average is 209.9 – data through July 29

In the 24 Washington counties where more than 10% of COVID tests are coming back positive, 44.6% of the total population is fully vaccinated. For the remaining 15 counties where positivity is below 9.9%, the rate is 59.7%

There are currently six Washington counties where COVID tests are over 20% positive. In those counties, only 41% are vaccinated.

The Kaiser Family Foundation released a study on Friday that shows just how effective COVID vaccines are. The study showed unvaccinated residents are 67 times more likely to test positive for COVID and 60 times more likely to require hospitalization. 

“Overall, the data showed that approximately 1 in 900 vaccinated people had breakthrough infections,” the report stated. “Odds that would be comparable to dying in a motorcycle crash, according to data from the National Safety Council.”

Statewide COVID positivity has almost tripled since June 29, 2021

The statewide data paints a troubling picture for the potential for COVID hospitalizations to increase. Hospitalizations are a trailing indicator. The increasing number of COVID cases being detected indicates that hospitalizations will rapidly rise within the next two to three weeks. In a KOMO News article, Prosser Memorial Hospital in Benton County has run out of beds and is sending patients out of state. 

There is some good news within the data. The spread of the Delta variant and increasing infections appears to be motivating unvaccinated Washingtonians to take action. Every Washington county showed a jump in those who have received their first COVID dose in the last two weeks.

King County Health and a number of medical facilities continue to provide COVID testing across King County.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

CountyPopulationFully VaccinatedPartial & Fully VaccinatedCOVID Positivity – 14 Day Moving Average Through July 29
San Juan16,78872.86%77.92%4.50%
Jefferson31,28568.18%71.24%7.60%
King2,195,50266.04%71.21%5.90%
Whatcom220,82158.03%63.48%6.20%
Snohomish798,80855.85%60.99%8.00%
Chelan76,22954.70%60.70%14.20%
Clallam75,39255.14%59.22%7.50%
Skagit125,61253.68%58.69%8.50%
Thurston279,71151.82%56.43%9.80%
Island82,86649.29%55.79%10.60%
Clark473,25250.50%55.78%18.20%
Okanogan41,84249.89%54.07%11.40%
Douglas42,02347.89%53.36%10.20%
Walla Walla60,63547.31%51.97%15.80%
Kitsap265,88247.82%51.35%8.70%
Mason63,80446.94%51.31%6.80%
Pacific21,68846.33%50.63%15.50%
Grays Harbor72,77945.81%50.62%7.30%
Cowlitz106,77845.90%50.06%24.70%
Pierce877,01344.96%49.93%13.30%
Spokane505,50544.43%48.99%12.90%
Yakima249,69742.76%48.50%15.10%
Kittitas45,89744.82%48.41%11.20%
Benton197,51841.55%46.75%26.50%
Wahkiakum4,26843.06%45.78%27.30%
Grant95,50240.66%44.69%8.90%
Klickitat21,72141.02%44.68%20.90%
Adams19,59440.04%44.52%9.60%
Lincoln10,57440.43%43.16%20.50%
Lewis78,14538.00%41.97%15.50%
Franklin92,00934.24%39.35%26.00%
Ferry7,57835.11%38.97%18.20%
Whitman49,21334.78%38.10%13.20%
Columbia3,99232.31%35.05%5.40%
Skamania11,75331.76%33.70%14.30%
Asotin22,42130.77%33.04%14.70%
Pend Oreille13,37729.87%32.79%10.80%
Stevens44,65526.46%29.01%13.50%
Garfield2,23024.84%28.21%0.00%
Percentage of the total population fully and partially vaccinated by county, with COVID positivity rate 14 day rolling average, through July 29, 2021

COVID cases and hospitalizations are increasing dramatically in Washington

[OLYMPIA, Wash] – (MTN) The number of patients in Washington ICUs has surged to the highest levels since April, while the 7-day moving average of new cases is now at the highest level since May and rising rapidly. Just 36 days after King County ended the masked mandate, cases fueled by the highly contagious Delta variant are exploding.

On June 27, there were only 167 new COVID cases statewide. That number has climbed 748% in a month, with the 7-day moving average up to 1,251 cases on July 28, per the Washington Department of Health. In the most recently available data, 173 patients are in the ICU with COVID – which represents 14.3% of all available ICU beds in the state and is well above the 10% threshold.

Statewide, Washington is no longer achieving any metric that would indicate the spread of COVID remains under control.

According to the Washington State Department of Health data through July 26, 2021, COVID positivity has climbed to 6.5% statewide. The target is to be below 5%, and over 7% is an indication of growing community spread and under testing. Only the sparsely populated counties of San Juan, Garfield, and Columbia were under 5%. Asotin, Lincoln, Franklin, Walla Walla, Benton, Klickitat, Pacific, Cowlitz, and Skamania were over 15% positive – Benton county was over 25%. King County was at 4.3%.

Statewide acute care hospital beds continue to exceed guidelines. Statewide 82.2% of beds are supporting patients, while in King County, it is 84.6% of available beds. Of the 7,517 patients in the hospital, 647 have COVID. For ICUs, the numbers are more concerning. Statewide, 81.7% of all ICU beds are occupied, and in King County, it is 83.9%. Some area hospitals already have full ICUs, just as the state appears to be heading towards its biggest surge since the spring of 2021.

Although there is no specific cure for COVID, the medical community has a much better understanding of supportive therapies than they did at the pandemic’s beginning. Due to low positive outcomes, moving a patient to a ventilator is now considered a last line of defense.

Some of the strain on the state medical system in Washington is caused by out-of-state patients from Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Alaska. Hospitals in eastern Washington support trauma and the sickest COVID patients from Idaho and western Montana, while hospitals in Portland and Seattle take patients from Oregon. Trauma patients in Alaska are flown to Seattle once they are stabilized. This spring and summer have seen a dramatic increase in general trauma unrelated to COVID, accounting for the current high occupancy rate.

Locally, Evergreen Hospital was reporting 12 COVID patients in Kirkland and 5 in Monroe.

Hospitals are normally staffed to support 60% to 80% capacity, with the remainder aside to support short-term surges. An increasing number of specialists, doctors, and nurses are leaving the medical field as the stress of the last 18 months has taken an emotional and physical toll.

To a layperson, 80% to 85% occupancy may not seem like a challenge, but the primary issue is a lack of medical staff when rates get this high.

COVID deaths remain low in Washington but are a trailing indicator and don’t spike until 4 to 6 weeks after hospitalizations increase. The IHME current forecast indicates COVID hospitalizations will peak next month, and deaths will grow an additional 70,000 to 130,000 nationally by October 31. The same forecast models indicate that masks would dramatically lower that number.

The Delta variant is now the dominant strain in the United States. Last week, the CDC reported that the COVID variant that emerged in India is as transmissible as chickenpox]. A super spreader event in Massachusetts over the 4th of July holiday sickened more than 880 with 74% vaccinated. Five were hospitalized, including 4 vaccinated people. The data from that incident resulted in a renewed recommendation to wear masks.

The NIH reported that in June 2021, the most recent data available, over 99% of people who died of COVID in the United States were unvaccinated. A vast majority of vaccinated people who test positive for the Delta variant are asymptomatic or mildly sick. However, unlike previous variants, the vaccinated carry a high virus load and can spread the disease. In states hit harder by Delta, such as Tennessee, vaccination rates have significantly increased as the impact of COVID becomes more real.

King County, Washington is over 80% vaccinated, and Washington state is over 70%. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA is expected to provide full approval to the Pfizer vaccine next month.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

Nine counties recommend masks again as COVID surges

[SEATTLE, Wash] – (MTN) Skagit County joined eight Western Washington counties today in recommending indoor use of masks for all people, even if they are vaccinated. Eight counties, including Grays Harbor, Callam, Pierce, King, San Juan, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Snohomish released a joint statement on Monday with the recommendation.

The CDC is widely expected to recommend wearing masks in regions with high infection rates today as COVID cases fueled by the Delta and Gamma variants, surges in all 50 states. In a report from Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MD, and epidemiologist, COVID cases have grown 170% in the last 14 days across the United States as tracked by Johns Hopkins University.

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a consortium of researchers and medical professionals projects that the so-called Fourth Wave will peak in October, with daily deaths growing to 850 in the United States as the best case, and as high as 4,000 a day in the worst case. The IHME out of the Univesity of Washington projects a peak in September and the United States entering a new normal for fatalities.

On July 14, Washington state achieved its goal of 70% of eligible residents over 16 years old vaccinated. King County is over 80% vaccinated, but there remains significant gaps in South King County in communities such as Federal Way. The number of new cases per 100K has grown to 107 in Washington state, well above the target of 25.

Acute care and ICU beds remain in short supply throughout Washington due to a number of contributing factors, including COVID. KING 5 reported that emergency rooms across Western Washington are overwhelmed including Harborview Medical Center, the state’s only Level 1 trauma center, where patients are waiting as long as 90 minutes to be unloaded from ambulances.

24 days later, King County is asking you to mask up – again

[SEATTLE, Wash] – (MTN) With COVID cases climbing in King County and 90% of detected COVID cases are “variants of concern,” King County health officer Dr. Jeff Duchin is recommending to mask up once again.

“I know this is frustrating and disappointing to many,” said Duchin. “It certainly is to me. I didn’t want to be in this position. And I acknowledge that the changing communication on masking has been a real problem nationally.”

King County is one of the most vaccinated counties in the country, where 80.3% of residents 12 and over have at least one dose of a COVID vaccine. Despite those numbers, 700,000 residents of King County remain unvaccinated including the young and the immunocompromised.

On June 28, the county was logging 56 new COVID cases a day. The count has climbed to 171, a 294% increase. Test positivity had dropped to as low as 1.2% but is now up to 4.1%. That is still within an acceptable range and indicates adequate testing, but the sharp increase in just 3 weeks is concerning to health officials.

Statewide, 9.4% of all ICU patients have COVID, moving closer to the 10% red light metric.

Hospitals in King County are near capacity – but not due to COVID

The Washington State Department of Health is reporting that 90.8% of all acute care beds and 88.7% of ICU beds are occupied in King County. Normally during this time of the year utilization would be 60% to 80%. As of July 22, only 2.6% of acute care beds and 5.4% of ICU beds have COVID patients. The problem? Area hospitals are overflowing with accident and trauma patients and patients that had elective surgeries delayed last year are moving through the system.

To the south in Thurston County, there are so many traumas and accidents 911 and ambulances are overwhelmed creating service delays.

Growing concern over Delta, Lambda, and Gamma variants

The Delta variant, B1671.2 from India, now makes up 83% of all cases in the United States. Two different studies found that Delta produces 1000% to 1200% more virus load than the original COVID strain. Neither study has been peer reviewed, however, both independent reports reached similar conclusions. The variant is 200% to 225% more transmissible than the original variant and has an R0 estimated to be 3.5 to 4.0 among unvaccinated populations according to Yale University.

Lambda has been identified in approximately 700 patients in the United States in the last 14 days. The South American variant appears to be less transmissible than Delta, so it likely won’t get established within the population. In South America, Lambda is over 9% fatal, but researchers believe this may be to lower quality healthcare, and only the sickest patients getting tested.

In Illinois, Gamma is the dominant variant with cases detected in Texas and Washington. According to a CDC study released this week, Gamma is showing a “strikingly high attack rate among persons vaccinated.” The report added, “Such a low vaccine efficiency against infection by the Gamma variant was not expected.”

Skeptic Republican leaders appeal to get vaccinated

In the last week, Steve Scalise (LA-R), House Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY-R), and Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (AL-R) have appealed for constituents to get vaccinated. Alabama has the lowest vaccination rate in the county while in Louisiana, hospitals are becoming overwhelmed.

Delta, Lambda, and Gamma all appear to break through the currently available vaccinations to varying degrees. However, data indicates that almost all breakthrough cases is asymptomatic or mild. In June, the National Institute of Health reported over 99% of all COVID-related deaths were among unvaccinated patients.

According to the White House, vaccination rates are starting to increase in some of the states hardest hit by the fourth wave.

CDC moves Washington state up to “substantial transmission” as COVID cases skyrocket nationwide

[SEATTLE, Wash] – (MTN) COVID cases are increasing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, as the Delta variant of COVID rapidly spreads through the unvaccinated population. The South and Central Midwest show the most significant increases, with hospitals in Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana strained by caseloads.

COVID cases are up 140% nationally in the last seven days and are showing exponential growth. Only Vermont, one of the highest vaccinated states in the country and predominantly rural, is the only state with a low transmission rate. Tennessee has seen cases increase 340%, Massachusetts 261%, and Alabama 257%. Florida is trending 6,500 new cases a day, 21% of all new infections in the United States.

Hospitalizations, which is a lagging indicator of infections, are up 34% nationally. Arkansas, Missouri, Florida, and Nevada have more hospitalized COVID patients than the third wave over the winter and early spring of 2021.

Clark County, Nevada, which includes Las Vegas, joined Los Angeles County in California, mandating masks for all residents and visitors. Governor Jay Inslee of Washington has said the state would not be moving forward with a renewed mask mandate. The CDC recently moved Washington state to “substantial transmission of COVID” in its latest weekly update.

The Delta variant of COVID originated in India. It brought the medical infrastructure of the nation of one billion to the brink of collapse. Officials wrestled with shortages of Oxygen, ventilators, and fuel to cremate the victims. 

In a non-peer-reviewed study of 167 patients infected with the Delta variant, viral load was 1000% higher than previous variants. Another study found the viral load to be 1200% higher, adding more weight to the first study. The increased viral load indicates that Delta is 225% more transmissible. In the United States, Delta now accounts for 58% of infections.

Another challenge facing health officials is some states moved away from reporting daily COVID data. Many believe infections numbers are worse. In Texas, for example, most COVID tests are happening at hospitals when patients are arriving much sicker than with previous strains. Many states, including Washington, converted testing sites to vaccination sites, making it more challenging to get tested.

Wall Street reacted negatively to the news of the “fourth wave.” The Dow Jones was down over 900 points, and the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped almost 6% to $67.28 a barrel. Concerns over the economy slowing down again while most social safety nets related to COVID are ending were causing the retreat.

King County is offering free transportation to get vaccinated and is even offering free childcare for vaccination appointments and the recuperation period for those still unvaccinated.

Although side effects are mild, many have reported feeling fatigued, experiencing headaches, and having brain fog 24 to 48 hours after the second dose for a day or two. The one-dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine has been reported to have lesser side effects, but that evidence is anecdotal.

Vaccine hesitancy still is holding along political lines. Twenty-eight percent of Republicans and 20% of Independents have stated they will not get vaccinated. The survey also indicated 50% reporting they who would not get vaccinated were taking a wait and see approach and were somewhat likely or likely to get vaccinated in the future.

If you or a family member needs to get vaccinated in King County, you can visit the Getting Vaccinated King County page on the Public Health website.

COVID cases on the rise as Delta variant becomes the dominant strain

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Health officials are increasingly concerned as the COVID Delta variant takes advantage of low vaccination rates in rural areas and communities with vaccine hesitancy. In Washington state, Benton, Franklin, and Walla Walla counties have some of the highest COVID positivity rates in the country. Only three Washington counties, San Juan, Island, and Wahkiakum, have fewer than 25 cases per 100,000 people. In King County, new cases are creeping up.

The Delta variant emerged in Indian and has quickly spread through Europe and North America as the new dominant strain. Delta is more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 variant, or “UK” variant, and initial symptoms closely resemble RSV, a common virus. People infected with Delta are not reporting a loss of taste and smell, a red flag that is common with other COVID strains.

An area of particular concern is people who have opted not to receive their second dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. In Washington state, up to 125,000 people have had their initial dose, but not their second. Not everyone in that group has decided not to get the second injection. Incomplete vaccinations provide less protection, but even more so with Delta.

In areas with low overall vaccination rates, Delta is dramatically increasing case numbers and hospitalizations. In southern Missouri, hospitals are overwhelmed with more patients than during the coronavirus peak over the winter, and officials searched for ventilators.

Depending on the state, 96% to 99% of people hospitalized for COVID are unvaccinated. According to the National Institute of Health, more than 99 percent of people who died from COVID-19 in June were not vaccinated.

Within Washington state, data is mixed. The positivity rate for COVID testing is 2.8%, indicating an appropriate level of testing. According to the most recent data, ICUs remain over 80% occupied. The number of COVID patients is low, with 370 in acute care and 80 in ICU.

A 2.8% positivity rate is a significant accomplishment from the spring; however, it has increased almost 50% in the past two weeks.

Governor Jay Inslee set a goal of 70% of Washington state residents 16 years and older vaccinated. The state is just under that goal at 69.8%. A lottery that included hundreds of prizes concludes today. The winner of the one-million-dollar grand prize is notified. Pundits consider the lottery a flop as it did little to move vaccination rates higher.

King County Health is continuing COVID vaccine outreach and providing transportation and childcare. You can visit the King County website to learn how to get vaccinated.