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National, Russia-Ukraine War

Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 6, 2022

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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 19 weeks since the Russia-Ukraine war started and 3,050 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previously announced scaleback of the war in Ukraine, limiting total victory to securing the Donbas, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, as well as securing the land bridge to Crimea, has been pushed aside. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu declared the Russian army will continue the “special military operation” in Ukraine until the tasks set by President Putin are “fully completed.”

Chairman of the Chechen Parliament Magomed Daudov declared a jihad in Ukraine to defend Muslims in Europe during a visit to Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration that the Luhansk oblast had been captured was spoiled less than 24 hours later, with Ukrainian forces contesting the settlement of Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Pro-Russian accounts and the Kremlin reported that “cleansing” was continuing south of Lysychansk to clear the area of remaining Ukrainian troops. There continues to be no evidence that Russian forces captured significant numbers of Ukrainian troops, weapons, or ammunition in Severodonetsk, Zolote-Hirske, or Lysychansk.

There was limited fighting west of Popasna, with Russian forces likely securing the settlement of Spirne.

Northeast Donetsk – Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the terrorist organization Imperial Legion and Russian artillery, captured Klynove, east of Bakhmut.

Russian forces are likely attempting to collapse the Svitlodarsk bulge, launching an offensive toward Vershyna. They were unsuccessful. Fighting continued in Novoluhanske and at the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) recaptured the settlement of Novobakhmutivka, southwest of Horlivka.

Northeast of Donetsk city, a video from Russian state media showed that Ukrainian forces collapsed a small Russian-controlled salient south of Pisky and are in control of the Russian defensive positions.

In Donetsk city, a Russian ammunition depot stored in a heavy truck dealership was destroyed by a Ukrainian artillery strike. There were multiple secondary explosions. Ukrainian forces also destroyed a large ammunition depot near the railroad station in Donetsk, with multiple secondary explosions after the strike.

There were reports of fresh explosions in the port of Berdyansk. Russian and Ukrainian officials have stated this is related to unstable munitions exploding during an attempted recovery of the Large Landing Ship (LLS) Saratov, which sank on March 24. The Saratov was hit by a Tochka-U missile which damaged two more LLS vessels and heavily damaged a cargo ship.

In Zaporizhia, Ukrainian forces continue to advance on Polohy. Fighting and artillery strikes were reported in Novopokrovka.

Kherson – The Ukrainian counteroffensive continued in Kherson, with significant gains made. Ukrainian forces liberated Myrne, northwest of Kherson. Russian forces suffered significant losses near Tomyna Balka from artillery fire and air strikes.

Satellite images from July 5 show the airport and Russian base at Chornobaivka suffered heavy damage after two ammunition depots were destroyed days apart. The Russian base appeared abandoned.

Multiple videos showed fighting and artillery exchanges on the northern edge of Snihurivka, with Ukrainian forces 3 kilometers north of the city limits. The Ukrainian air force also attacked Russian defensive positions.

Ukrainian forces reestablished a wet crossing over the Inhulets River near Velke Artakove and Bila Krynytsya. The settlements of Lozove and Bilohirka are under Ukrainian control. Pro-Russian accounts reported that Ukrainian forces had pushed to Sukhyi Stavok, almost 10 kilometers south. There were reports of renewed fighting in Davydiv Brid. A Russian ammunition depot in Velkya Oleksandrivka was destroyed.

In the north region of the Kherson oblast, Ukrainian forces collapsed the Vysokopillya salient, liberating the settlement of Olhyne. Intense fighting in Arkhanhelske continued, with a Russian ammunition depot destroyed on July 5. Ukrainian forces fired artillery at Russian troops retreating from Olhyne, northeast of Novopetrivka.

Mykolaiv – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the city of Mykolaiv.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched attacks in three directions from the stronghold in Kozacha Lopan on the settlements of Sosnivka, Prudyanka, and Dementiivka. None of the attacks were successful.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Krasnopillya and suffered heavy losses. Ukrainian artillery hit Russian positions in Dovhenke and Sosnove, destroying Main Battle Tanks (MBT), Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV), and support vehicles. Russian forces also attempted to advance southeast of Velyka Komyshuvahka and suffered significant losses.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Chernihiv – Russian forces shelled and used MLRS on the border villages of Mkhy and Bleshnia in the northern region of Chernihiv.

Sumy – Russian helicopters fired rockets at the Esman in the Sumy oblast.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukrainian air defenses intercepted three Russian cruise missiles near Odesa.

Western Ukraine – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the Yarmolyntsi in the Khmelnytskyi oblast.

Daily Assessment

  1. Phase 2 of the Russia-Ukraine War is over.
  2. Russian ground forces in eastern Ukraine appear to be in an operational pause.
  3. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire in the northeastern region of the Donetsk oblast is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  4. Russian forces are struggling in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces are making steady territorial gains from the north, the west, and the southeast.
  5. Russia’s reset of its operational goals in Ukraine will be impossible to achieve without a formal declaration of war and full mobilization.
  6. The Kremlin is likely hoping to wear down western support by extending the war and capitalize on a looming leadership change in the United Kingdom and politically driven unrest in the United States, which closely resembles the start of “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland.
  7. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 5, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,049 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory after the Russian Federation Armed Forces secured the region 131 days after the widescale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin told Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shogui that the units in Luhansk “should rescue [and] increase their combat capabilities.”

It took 100 days for Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed militias to secure the last 7% of the Luhansk Oblast. The Russian military will likely start to work to establish administrative control of Severodoentsk and Lysychansk. The cities of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna had a combined pre-war population of 293,500. It is estimated that 18,500 civilians remain, with the rest fleeing the area – some into Russia and others into Ukraine. Most of those who stayed behind supported the Russian invasion or were poor, disabled, or didn’t want to leave their homes.

Northeast Donetsk – In the Siversk region, Russian forces have advanced over the T-1302 Highway and taken partial control of Spirne.

Widescale artillery barrages occurred through the region, including Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and Verkhonkamyanska. Other settlements shelled include Ivano-Daryivka and Berestove.

NASA FIRMS data suggest that the town of Raihorodok has been shelled.

In the Bakhmut-Soledar region, the settlements of Pokrovske and Soledar were shelled.

Fighting continued In the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhlehar Power Plant and Russian forces shelling Kodema. Russian forces are attempting to take control of Novoluhanske, southeast of the power plant and on the reservoir’s western shore.

Based on this intelligence, we maintain that Dolomitne is contested, and we are coding Novoluhanske as contested.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – There were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. There were reports of fighting near Rivnopil, but we could not verify the veracity of the reports.

We consider Bilohirya, Luhivske, Novopokrovka, Bahate, and Ukraniske, Rivnopil, Pyatkhatky, and Stepove [Zaporizhia] as contested.

Kherson – Russian forces continue to take a defensive posture and are attempting to slow the broad advance of Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces are attempting to interdict Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines) and firing artillery, Grad, and Smerch rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

Russian forces shelled Myrne northwest of Kherson, which would indicate the settlement is contested. There are reports that Pravdyne was liberated, and Myrne and Parysheve are contested. We cannot verify the veracity of these reports. However, the report of Myrne being shelled supports the settlement is contested.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Shyroka Balka, Sofiivka, and Krytyi Yar.

In the northern region of Kherson, Topolyne, Ivanivka, Knyazivka, Potomkyne, Dobryanka, Trudolyubivka, and Osokorivka were shelled by Russian forces.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Sukhyi Stavok, Lozove, Davydiv Brid, Velkya Oleksandrivka, and Novopetrivka.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces are in Lozove. We cannot confirm the veracity of these reports. There was a drone video that showed Russian troops being killed by small arms fire. The distance from the Inhulets River was over 700 meters. There may be Ukrainian Special Operation Forces on the east side of the river, but we don’t believe this indicates there is a more significant force in the immediate area.

Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters fired on Zarichne and Olhyne. On July 3, there was evidence of significant fighting in Olhyne, and we have coded the settlement as contested based on this intelligence update. If Ukrainian forces liberate Olhyne, it will represent the full collapse of the Vysokopillya salient.

Mykolaiv – The settlements of Lupareve, Shevchenkove, Chervona Dolyna, Kobzartsi, Partyzanske, and Bereznehuvate were shelled. There were no reports of cruise missile attacks.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces did reconnaissance in force toward Kozacha Lopan from Sosnivka, likely to harass Russian positions. There were no other offensive operations in the area. There was scattered artillery fire along the rest of the line of conflict.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Mazanivka. In Dolyna, they were unsuccessful, and in Mazanivka, they moved the line of conflict to the settlement’s northern border. Russian forces attempted to advance on Virnopillya and suffered heavy losses, including eight armored vehicles.

Sumy – Russian forces continue firing at settlements across the international border in the Sumy oblast. A school was destroyed in Esman, and public utility infrastructure was destroyed in Nova Sloboda. Bilopillia was hit with at least 25 mortar shells and five missiles, injuring two people.

Chernihiv – Russian troops fired across the international border at the settlements of Mkhy and Zalizniy Mist. There were no reports of injuries or significant damage.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Ukrainian flag was dropped on Snake Island, symbolically taking control of the strategically important dot in the Black Sea.

Daily Assessment

  1. President Putin’s declaration of “rest” is not a charitable order from a benevolent leader but a tacit admission that Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed separatists of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics have exhausted their combat strength and need to reconstitute.
  2. Russian forces continue to be pressured in the Kherson oblast and struggle to hold the line of conflict.
  3. Germany announced they are providing Ukraine with four additional M270 HIMARS systems and upgraded the software to work with the Ukrainian fire control systems.
  4. Ukrainian forces are using NATO-provided guided munitions fired from HIMARS to destroy multiple military targets a day.
  5. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 4, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,048 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast after capturing Bilohorivka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote, “After heavy fighting for Lysychansk, the Defense Forces of Ukraine were forced to withdraw from their occupied positions and lines.”

Pockets of resistance still exist in the Lysychansk area, but Ukraine appears to have successfully executed another strategic withdrawal that minimized casualties and prevented the encirclement of troops.

Russian forces are attempting to advance west from Popasna, fighting for control of Verkhnokamyanke, Spirne, and Berestove.

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group attempted to advance on Klynove but was unsuccessful in moving the line of conflict.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Avdiivka from Spartak. The attack was unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed what is alleged to be the largest Russian ammunition depot in the Donbas, located in Snizhne. The depot provides storage and logistics for artillery, mortars, Grad, and Smerch rockets and also houses Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) and S300 antiaircraft missiles.

Ukrainian forces attacked the airport in Melitopol two more times, firing more than 30 rockets from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Local reports claim the airport is “destroyed.”

The Russian armored train derailed near Melitopol due to partisan activity, was loaded with ammunition, and reportedly exploded. Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SOF) also destroyed the Melitopol-Tokmak railroad bridge in Liubymivka, severing the rail connection to the Kherson oblast.

Kherson – Ukraine again attacked the Russian-controlled airport at Chornobaivka, hitting additional ammunition storage east and within the airport compound. Russian forces fired a furious artillery barrage on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine is mounting offensives, firing artillery, and launching airstrikes across the entire line of conflict in Kherson. There was intense fighting in Olhyne, the last Russian-occupied settlement in the Vysokipillya salient.

Kharkiv – Russian forces fought positional battles in the contested settlements of Tsupivka and Prudyanka.

Izyum – Slovyansk – Russian forces continue to make piecemeal attacks in an attempt to advance on Slovyansk, attacking Mazanivka, Dolyna, and Bohorodychne. They were unsuccessful.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense will continue mop-up operations, but Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast after 130 days of war.
  2. Ukraine claims they were outnumbered 10:1 in Lysychansk, which would imply that the entire combat force in the city was only 2,000 to 2,500 defenders.
  3. Russian forces’ defensive capabilities in Kherson are increasingly degraded, and the destruction of the Melitopol-Tokmak railroad bridge in Liubymivka has significantly disrupted the main Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) into the Kherson oblast.
  4. Ukrainian forces are rapidly mastering the NATO-provided HIMARS systems and destroying critical infrastructure for the Russian military dozens of kilometers behind the line of conflict.
  5. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 3, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,047 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from Lysychansk after the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and Pryvillia were captured. With the Lysychansk-Bakhmut T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) severed and the Sivesk-Lysychansk GLOC under pressure, The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided the risk of encirclement had become too great. Additionally, Russian forces unleashed the largest artillery barrage since the collapse of the Zolote-Hirske salient. Luhansk Regional Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai confirmed the withdrawal.

Russian state media showed Russian and Chechen forces in the center of Lysychansk and the southern regions on the plateau. It is estimated that up to 10,000 civilians remain in the city once home to 95,000.

There weren’t indications of large numbers of Ukrainian troops being captured or the abandonment of significant quantities of heavy weapons.

Ukrainian forces fell back to preprepared defensive positions in Siversk. Due to the ongoing Ukrainian withdrawal, the renewed line of conflict is very difficult to define.

Russian forces attempted a reconnaissance in force advance into Berestove but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, Siversk, Serberianka, Hryhorivka, Bilhorivka [Donetsk], and Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – Southeast of Bakhmut, Russian forces shelled the electrical service transformer farm at Vesela Dolyna. Sentinel-2 L2A imagery showed a massive fire at the center of the facility.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – Russia-backed separatists of the Donetsk People’s Republic 1st Army attempted an advance on Novomykhalivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot in the city of Yasynuvata near Donetsk.

In the Russia-controlled port city of Berdyansk, salvage engineers raised the Large Landing Ship (LLS), Saratov, from the bottom of the harbor. The Saratov was sunk on March 24 during a Ukrainian cruise missile attack, damaging two additional LLS and severely damaging a civilian cargo ship.

Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian airbase in the occupied town of Melitopol with 12 rockets fired from NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), striking defensives and two logistic warehouses. Additionally, a freight train traveling between Crimea and Melitopol was attacked by insurgents. Insurgents also derailed a Russian armored train.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces shelled the Russian-controlled airport at Chornobaivka, destroying an ammunition depot. The settlement of Pervomaiske suffered intense shelling by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement of Ivanivka and Zarichne [Kherson] and are attacking Russian positions in Arkhanhelske on the east bank of the Inhulets River. Russian forces have suffered significant losses.

To replace equipment losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense is transferring 40 to 67 tanks from Zaporizhia to Kherson.

Mykolaiv – Up to 12 Russian Onyx cruise missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv. The missiles targeted the port and grain storage.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile struck the city of Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, destroying a factory.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with Iskander-M Short Range Ballistic Missiles SRBM), with several strikes in the city and the suburbs of Cherkaska Lozova and Derhachi.

Izyum – Slovyansk – Russian forces made another ad hoc advance on Bohorodychne, which was unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are using HIMARS to interdict Russian GLOC into and south of Izyum, significantly impacting the ability to resupply and support Russian forces on the line of conflict. Ukrainian forces reestablished the wet crossing southeast of Chepil.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Russian Su-30 aircraft fired a Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missile into the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, striking another hotel.

The Ukrainian air force bombed Snake Island’s remaining Russian military assets, destroying a Tornado Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and three other support vehicles on the pier.

Russian Federation – Missile debris from a failed Iskander-M launch or possibly from a Russian antiaircraft missile fell onto the city of Belgorod, Russia. Local authorities reported dozens of homes were damaged, and three civilians were killed. The Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of firing a Tochka-U missile armed with cluster munitions on Kursk, but later retracted the accusation and claimed it shot down three Ukrainian missiles.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense has put intense pressure on its commanders in Ukraine to complete the capture of the Luhansk oblast, and it is unlikely they will have an operational pause.
  2. Russia will continue to focus on securing the Luhansk Oblast at all costs.
  3. NATO-provided HIMARS is already having a significant impact on combat operations for Ukraine.
  4. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  5. Russian forces’ defensive capabilities in Kherson are increasingly degraded as they deploy 360-degree perimeter defenses in the settlements they still control.
  6. Supply interdiction west and northwest of Izyum is impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities toward Slovyansk.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 2, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,046 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces continued to make gains in the Severodonetsk salient south and northwest of Lysychansk, but their progress has slowed considerably.

Russian and Chechen forces supported by Russia-backed separatists captured the settlement of Pryvillia northwest of Lysychansk after making and defending a wet crossing over the Siverskyi Donets River.

The line of conflict south and southwest of Lysychansk is little changed in the last 24 hours. Russian forces have not advanced further in the southeastern lowlands, held at the edge of Bila Hora. Ukrainian forces continue to defend the west bank of the Siveryski Donets River.

Fighting continues around the children’s hospital and rubber factory. Russian forces claim to have advanced and recaptured the gelatin factory, but there was no supporting information to back up the claim.

Intense fighting continues for control of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery with no change in territorial control. There is intense fighting in the Russian-controlled part of the refinery. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces claims that Russian forces have been pushed east of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line), but no information supports the claim.

Russian forces captured the settlement of Toplivka, north of the oil refinery, adding pressure to the GLOCs that support Lysychansk. Russian forces also advanced from Vovchoyarivka and reached Maloyazantseve, about 5 kilometers south of the Lysychansk plateau.

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – East of Bakhmut, Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by Russia-backed separatists, tried to improve their positions on the eastern edge of Klynove but were unsuccessful.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in Dolomitne and Novoluhanske. Ukrainian forces continued to hold their positions at the Vuhledar Power Plant.

There were no other attempts by Russian forces to advance west and secure the T-1302 Highway GLOC from Mykolaivka south to Pokrovske. Russian ground forces continued to rely on artillery, Grad rockets, and thermobaric rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). The artillery barrage around Lysychansk, including Pidlisne, Loskutivka, Vovchoyarivka, and Verkhnokamyanka, was similar to the intensity when Russian forces collapsed the Zolote-Hirske salient.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russia-backed separatists from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) performed tactical assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka but made no gains.

Kherson – Videos recorded before June 28 provided definitive evidence that the salient on the east bank of the Inhulets River between Davydiv Brid and Lozove collapsed in mid-June, and Ukrainian forces were pushed back across the river.

Odesa – Black Sea – The Russian air force conducted two sorties to bomb Snake Island. This was likely to destroy the equipment they abandoned after their withdrawal on June 30. The Russian Ministry of Defense is now claiming that Snake Island is still under Russian control after intense backlash from Kremlin supporters for leaving the island as a claimed gesture of “goodwill.”

Russian forces did not launch any other spoiling attacks, tactical or strategic offensives across the rest of Ukraine. Russian ground combat activity was limited to the Severodonetsk salient for two of the last three days.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russia continues to focus on securing the Luhansk oblast at all costs.
  2. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  3. The Ukrainian defense of Lysychansk has stiffened, likely frustrating the Kremlin’s plans for what was perceived would be a quick victory in the Luhansk oblast.
  4. Pro-Russian social media accounts are already resetting expectations, claiming that “2,000 Ukrainian forces are trapped” in Lysychansk, down from “10,000 will be surrounded” claims last week.
  5. Russian forces increasingly rely on artillery as a force multiplier but lack the troops to launch meaningful offensives outside of the Severodonetsk salient.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 1, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,045 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Odesa – Multiple Xh-22 air-to-sea cruise missiles hit the seaside resort town of Serhiivka, southwest of Odesa striking a rehabilitation center run by Moldova, an apartment building, and a hotel, killing 21 civilians and wounding more than 30. Ukrainian rescuers were still searching for survivors. The missiles were launched by Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, hours after the Russian garrison on Snake Island was evacuated.

Moldovan Health Minister Alla Nemerenko reported that one employee of the Children’s Rehabilitation Center of Moldova was killed in the attack. The center, approximately 100 kilometers from the international border with Moldova (63 miles) was for children and their families to relax on the Black Sea while the child received medical treatment and emotional support.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces continue to make incremental but critical gains in their attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of Severodonetsk.

Major General Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) separatist forces achieved a wet crossing at Pryvillia and now control half the settlement.

The line of conflict south and southwest of Lysychansk is little changed in the last 24 hours. Russian forces have not advanced further in the southeastern lowlands, held at the edge of Bila Hora to the children’s hospital and the rubber factory. After seven days, Russian forces ended their siege of the gelatin plant and retreated to Pidlisne to regroup.

Russian forces now control the southeast and northwest regions of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and continue to hold the area west of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line). Ukrainian forces have stabilized their positions within the refinery and have prevented further advances.

Russian forces renewed their efforts to advance on Bakhmut from Klynove but did not advance beyond the eastern edge of the settlement.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces attempted to recapture Dolomitne and Novoluhanske and were unsuccessful. Fighting for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant continued.

Mariupol – An Ondatra class Project 1176 Akula amphibious assault ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet hit a mine near Mariupol. There was no information on casualties or the amount of damage to the vessel.

South Donbas and Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to launch an offensive on Hulyaipole, likely from Marfopil, as a spoiling attack to slow the Ukrainian advance toward Polohy. Russian forces suffered severe casualties and not only withdrew but lost territory.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the Kherson Oblast along three fronts. The region west of the Dnipro River is steppe with mostly small settlements in open farmland, making measuring gains by liberated settlements challenging.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, Russia made a third attempt to recapture  Dementiivka but was unsuccessful. Positional battles were fought in Udy, Prudyanka, Tsupivka, and Velyki Prokhody. There were no changes in territorial control.

Izyum – Slovyansk – South of Izyum, Russian forces launched ad hoc attacks against Kurulka, Dolyna, Krasnopillya, and Bohorodychne. None of the offensives were successful.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 28, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine – MTN It has been 3,042 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-22 land-to-sea cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers at Kremenchuk, Poltava. Both missiles struck the Amstor Mall at 3:52 PM local time, with over 1,000 civilians inside. On Wednesday morning Ukrainian officials reported that 20 were dead, 59 were wounded, and 36 were still missing. Monday’s attack is the worst since Russia destroyed the railroad station in Kramatorsk on April 8 with cluster munitions delivered by Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM).

Lysychansk-Severodonetsk – Russian forces are holding a line that extends from Bila Hora to the southwestern corner of the rubber factory on the edge of Lysychansk. The line continues southwest to the gelatin factory, where fighting has been ongoing for four days.

Russian forces control most of Vovchoyarivka, with intense fighting continuing to control the settlement’s northern part. Russian forces have reached the southeastern edge of the abandoned Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery, which is adjacent to the T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line).

Bakhmut – Slovyansk – East of Bakhmut and north to the Popasna advance, Russian forces continue to try and take full control of the T-1302 Highway GLOC. Russian forces attempted to advance toward Klynove and Pokrovske but were unsuccessful. Russian forces likely reached the eastern edge of Klynove in heavy fighting but were pushed back to Midna Ruda. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Yakolivka but were unsuccessful.

Russian forces shelled Soledar, Bilohirivka [Donetsk], Berestove, Mykolaivka, Vesele [Dontesk, 48°44’38.5″N 38°08’56.5″E], and Spirne. Shelling of Berestove and Spirne was particularly fierce. Both settlements are west of the T-1302 Highway.

Two Russian ammunition depots south and east of Zymohirya [Luhansk] were attacked by NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) missiles. A coal mine was the closest target, 70 kilometers east of Bakhmut.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, there were indications that Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions in Semhirya, Dolomitne, and Myronivskyi.

South Donbas and Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russian forces attempted an offensive against Ukrainian forces in Shevchenko [Donetsk 47°43’45.5″N 37°08’29.4″E] and were unsuccessful. With reports of further advances, Ukrainian forces continue to hold recent territorial gains.

Kherson and Mykolaiv – In Kherson, the Ukrainian counteroffensive continued. Ukrainian troops advanced from Soldatske to the western edge of Myrolyubivka. Russian and Ukrainian forces continued intense fighting to control Stanislav, Kyselivka, and Snihurivka. The United States Department of Defense and Ukrainian officials have hinted that “several” settlements were liberated between June 25 – 26 in the Kherson Oblast but have requested that the details be temporarily withheld to support Operational Security (OPSEC).

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched an offensive to recapture Dementiivka, but they were unsuccessful. Skirmishes continued near Velyki Prokhody, Vesele [Kharkiv 50°10’26.3″N 36°31’59.5″E], and Rubizhne [Kharkiv]. Satellite data indicated that Ukrainian forces remain on the east bank of the Pechenihy Reservoir near Khotimlya.

Southeast of Chuhuiv, fighting continues along the M-03 and M-07 highways. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to request to honor OPSEC in this region. We will only share open-source intelligence in today’s report. Sattelite data indicated fighting in Russian-controlled Nova Hnylytsya.

Izyum – On the Izyum axis, Russian forces shelled Mospanove but made no advances on the settlement. Russian forces attacked Dovhalivka and Zalyman from Savyntsi, suffered significant losses, and were forced back. We have also been requested to honor OPSEC in this region and will only share information available through open-source intelligence.

Sattelite data indicated intense fighting north, northeast, and north of Spivakivka, almost to Prydonetske. Sattelite images also confirmed the destruction of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army command post in Izyum and the adjacent fuel depot.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Mazanivka from Dovehenke and were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Dolyna and Bohorodychne. Ukrainian artillery interdicted the GLOC from Oskil to Sosnove with artillery.

Other Key Developments – Kremlin-backed hacker group Killnet launched a widescale DDoS cyberattack on Lithuania, disabling key websites and computer systems. Killnet says they will continue to attack the Baltic nation until trade restrictions to Kalinigrad are lifted.

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