Tag Archives: kherson

Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine’s Ongoing Struggle: Russia’s Fall/Winter Offensive Culminates

[WBHG News 24] – Seattle, WA As the conflict between Ukraine and Russia persists, recent developments on the battlefield have raised questions about the trajectory of the war. While it may be premature to declare a conclusive victor, signs point to a shifting landscape that presents challenges for both sides.

The Russian fall/winter offensive, initiated on October 6, 2023, has recently shown signs of culminating, raising eyebrows among military analysts. The intensity of Russian attacks has notably decreased, with a 50% reduction in discrete attacks along the line of conflict. This decline, coupled with operational irregularities, suggests significant challenges for the Russian forces.

A key factor contributing to the slowing Russian offense is the staggering losses in heavy military equipment. An analysis of the Oryx Database, which still tracks the Russia-Ukriane War, documented 1,154 pieces of Russian heavy equipment lost from October 1, 2023, to January 2, 2024. Losses include more than 275 tanks, almost 600 armored vehicles, over 175 heavy artillery pieces, seven aircraft, 28 helicopters, and three warships. These losses paint a picture of unsustainable attrition, even factoring in Russia’s military-industrial resilience.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has managed to hold its ground against Russian advances, displaying remarkable toughness in the face of personnel and ammunition shortages. The Ukrainian military has successfully repelled Russian forces in multiple areas. Notably, the Russian offensive at Avdiivka has failed to achieve its operational goals, indicating a strategic setback for Moscow.

Despite these failures, it is essential to remain cautious. The term “culmination” does not equate to victory, and Russia still maintains a significant reserve force poised for potential renewed offensives. However, the current reliance on piecemeal attacks and light infantry reinforces the assessment that Russia is now struggling to sustain momentum.

The Ukrainian bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and Konka Rivers have become a major problem for Moscow. Despite facing losses, Ukraine has effectively prevented Russia from not only collapsing the bridgeheads but has slowly expanded the area it controls. The Ukrainian military’s success in this regard has come at a cost, but dozens of geolocated videos prove that Russia has lost over 150 vehicles and pieces of military hardware in the Kherson area of operation since October.

Ukraine’s change in tactics has been a notable factor in altering the dynamics of the ongoing war. Fighting a war of attrition, Ukrainian defenders are achieving a much higher kill ratio against Russian forces compared to January 2023. Ukrainian commanders adapted to Russia’s use of human wave attacks.

However, Ukraine is not without its own challenges. The late summer purge of leadership within the military’s commissariat and medical board, coupled with arrests for corruption, has disrupted mobilization and recruitment efforts. Undertrained troops are still being deployed to the frontlines, affecting morale and overall effectiveness.

Ukraine’s struggle with combined arms warfare at the battalion and brigade levels is also evident, highlighting the need for improved coordination of military resources. Additionally, the country faces the impossible task of matching the combined war production capacity of Russia, Iran, and North Korea independently.

The question of whether Ukraine is winning is complex. Russia only captured 182 square kilometers of territory in 2023, mostly before June 1. Continued Western support and boosted war production are crucial for Ukraine to achieve its main military goal of restoring its 1991 borders.

The broader implications of the conflict extend beyond the immediate battlefield. If Ukraine were to succumb to Russian forces, the ramifications could be dire for Europe. Russia’s control over Ukraine’s resources, military infrastructure, and population could reshape geopolitical dynamics, threatening neighboring countries and potentially triggering a broader conflict.

The international community must remain vigilant and consider the potential consequences of a shifting tide in the conflict, understanding that the outcome holds implications not only for Ukraine but for the stability of the entire European region.

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International News, Russia-Ukraine War

The Most Successful Russian Military Leaders are Demoted, Detained, Dismissed, or Deceased

Since Russia expanded its war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, The Russian Federation Armed Forces have only had a handful of operational successes turn into strategic victories. While Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief-of-Staff Valery Gerasimov have maintained their stature in the Kremlin despite repeated failures, there is a common thread among the men who have been able to achieve victories. Without exception, they are either demoted, detained, dismissed, or deceased.

Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev

Accomplishment: The Capture of Mariupol

General Mizintsev is known as the Butcher of Mariupol and is responsible for 25,000 to 100,000 civilian deaths caused during the 86-day siege of the city. He is accused of setting up the filtration camp structure and ordering attacks on mutually agreed green corridors. On September 24, 2022, the future looked bright for Mizintsev when he was reassigned to Deputy Minister of Defense and charged with overseeing logistics.

Within the Kremlin, Mizintsev was already known to be an ally of Private Military Company Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. In September, this wasn’t viewed as a liability, but as tension between the Kremlin and Prigozhin reached a boiling point, there were signs that Shoigu was leading a quiet purge of Wagner allies. Mizintsev was dismissed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 27, 2023, with no official reason given. There was immediate speculation that Mizintsev had been leaking information to Prigozhin for months about how the Minister of Defense was actively interfering with ammunition and weapons shipment to PMC Wagner. Additionally, there were unsubstantiated claims that Mizintsev had used his position to increase the Shoigu-restricted allocation of munitions to Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut.

A week after being dismissed, Mitzintsev joined Wagner Group’s Council of Commanders and, on May 3, did a frontline inspection of supply, logistics, and Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut. A day after his inspection, Mitzintsev reportedly briefed the Council of Commanders as the siege of Bakhmut entered its ninth month. Hours later, Prigozhin announced he was withdrawing from Bakhmut by May 10 due to a lack of ammunition and the failure of Russian military units to protect his flanks.

The status of Mizintsev is unclear. There were unsubstantiated claims that he was detained after the Prigozhin Insurrection of June 23 and has not been seen publicly since the failed revolt.

Lieutenant General Mikhal Zusko

Accomplishment: The capture of Kherson, the only large Ukrainian city captured intact

General Zusko led the 58th Combined Arms Army, which advanced from Crimea on February 24, 2022, and captured the city of Kherson on March 2 with the loss of less than 300 soldiers. The 58th CAA had assistance from Russian-aligned collaborators in Crimea and Kherson, who helped set conditions for the lightly contested advance. Shortly after capturing the critical Antonovskyy Bridge and occupying the city of Kherson, Zusko’s forces continued to advance, reaching the outskirts of the city of Mykolaiv and passing the administrative border of Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk, where Ukrainian forces established an effective defense. Zusko was rumored to have been arrested on March 31, 2022, accused of dereliction of duty due to mounting losses. It wasn’t verified until June 2022 that Zusko had been arrested for failing to capture Mykolaiv and was accused of providing Ukrainian military leaders with information on Russian positions due to his alleged use of unsecured communication channels.

General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov, Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, and Colonel General Alexander Lapin

Accomplishments: The capture of the Luhansk Oblast, including Severodonetsk and Lysychansk

The story of the three generals is intertwined due to their overlapping commands from April to October 2022.

The Kremlin ended its group command structure after Russia suffered strategic defeats at Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv in late March 2022. On April 8, it named General Dvornikov the first theaterwide commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.

Reportedly, Dvornikov was ordered to capture the remainder of the Donbas – Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts – by May 9. What the Kremlin got on May 8 was news of a disastrous wet crossing attempt at the Siverskyi Donets River near Bilohorivka. At least 500 Russian troops were killed, and over 80 military vehicles were lost, mostly due to artillery. On the same day, Russian troops supported by the Private Military Company Wagner Group captured Popasna. The crossing at Bilohorivka was supposed to create the second part of a pincer surrounding Ukrainian forces defending Severodonetsk.

With the pincers broken, Dvornikov started a brutal war of attrition on May 10, which led to the capture of the Luhansk Oblast at the expense of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of Russia, Syrian volunteer groups and Chechen Akhmat forces, which were all combat destroyed by the beginning of July. Chechen Akhmat and the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, now officially part of the Russian Ministry of Defense, never recovered.

Dvornikov fell out of public view in the third week of May, and between May 26 and June 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed him as theaterwide commander, ending his 44-year military career. Although the capture of the Luhansk Oblast didn’t happen while he was the theaterwide commander, his tactics, which closely resembled World War II Russian Marshal Georgy Zhukov’s, did.

General Zhidko was named the new theaterwide commander of Russian troops, but it is unclear when his command officially started and ended. The first proof that Zhidko was the new theaterwide commander was on June 22, when he appeared with Shoigu. Zhidko was reportedly dismissed on July 12, but the Kremlin didn’t publicly name a new theaterwide commander until October 8. While he likely started theaterwide command around June 1, based on the official Kremlin announcements, Zhidko’s tenure as commander of all Russian troops may have been as short as 17 days. There were reports that he was dismissed from command due to a sharp increase in health issues related to chronic alcoholism. Zhidko, age 57, died on August 16, 2023, after a “long illness.”

Intertwined with Dvornikov and Zhidko was General Lapin. Lapin was the commander of the Central Military District of Russian Forces, serving as an area commander through April 8, 2022, before becoming a subordinate of Dvornikov, followed by Zhidko. On July 4, one day after Russia announced it had captured the Luhansk Oblast, Lapin was awarded the title of Hero of Russia by President Putin.

WBHG News analysts concluded in early June that Russia could capture the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in the short term but lacked sufficient forces to hold territorial gains. As Russia’s combat potential decreased due to the nature of attritional warfare and the June arrival of NATO-provided guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS), better known as HIMARS, Dvornikov or Zhidko pulled reserve forces of the Central Military District from Kharkiv and Donetsk into Luhansk. By early August of 2022, the units under Lapin’s command were exhausted, and near Izyum, equipment and ammunition shortages continued to worsen.

When Ukraine launched the Kharkiv Counteroffensive on September 5, Lapin was accused of abandoning his forces and incompetence by Chechen Colonel General Ramzan Kadyrov and PMC Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. On Telegram, Kadyrov wrote, “If I had my way, I would demote Lapin to a private, deprive him of his awards and, with a machine gun in his hands, send him to the front line to wash away his shame with blood.” The Chechen warlord, who has never stepped foot in Ukraine, also accused Lapin of cowardice for commanding from the rear.

A divide within the Kremlin spilled out into public view. Some military leaders and analysts accused Kadyrov and Prigozhin of playing politics and positioning themselves to gain deeper control of the Ministry of Defense. Kadyrov and Prigozin leveraged Wagner Group’s bot farms and faux news organizations, a network of Russian milbloggers, and their own social media channels to run an organized smear campaign against Lapin and to advocate for General of the Army Sergey Surovikin to be named the new theaterwide commander. Although Lapin was never the theaterwide commander, Zhidko’s unclear status created a vacuum, contributing to Lapin receiving an oversized portion of the blame for the failures in Kharkiv, at Izyum, and the Russian retreat from Lyman.

On October 8, 2022, Surovikin was named the theaterwide commander, and on October 29, Lapin was dismissed by President Putin. The only commander to still have a career after his fall, the Gerasimov-connected Lapin was named the chief of staff of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation on January 10, 2023.

General of the Army Sergey Surovikin

Accomplishments: Successful retrograde operation from western Kherson, building the defensive structures in occupied Crimea, Kherson, Zaporzhzhia, and southern Donetsk, instilling basic discipline into Russian troops

On the same day General Surovikin was named the commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) blew up the Kerch (also known as the Crimean) Bridge. Two days later, Ukraine requested a total communications blackout in Kherson, and the second phase of the Kherson Counteroffensive started 48 hours later.

During his ascent, Surovikin negotiated to execute three campaigns: first, the withdrawal of Russian forces west of the Dnipro River in Kherson; second, executing the same air campaign he ran in 2017 against Syrian civilians, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure; and third, taking the forces that withdraw from Kherson and achieving a strategic victory on another axis by December 31. In the public information space, state media started setting conditions with the Russian people to accept a withdrawal from Kherson as both a goodwill gesture and a move to more strategically advantageous positions.

On October 10, the first widescale Russian missile attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was launched. Between November 8 and 11, Surovikin executed a masterful retrograde operation from Kherson, preserving up to 25,000 Russian troops and their equipment, slipping across the Dnipro River and suffering less than 500 casualties.

The biggest legacy of Surovikin’s command was ending the Kremlin policy of sending mobiks with no training to the frontline and instilling military discipline among the Russian troops in Ukraine. This was accomplished by brutally enforcing existing military rules and protocols and creating busy work. Thousands of mobiks were involved in constructing the Surovikin Line, a network of defenses with up to three echelons 35 kilometers deep across occupied Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and southwestern Donetsk. The static defenses have stymied Ukraine’s summer offensive, forcing Kyiv to change tactics twice since June 4 to overcome the Russian network of minefields, antitank traps, trenches, tunnels, and bunkers.

Surovikin also tried to end sending untrained and ill-equipped Russian troops to the frontlines. The quality of Russian forces had improved significantly, as have their tactics, but since August, there appears to be a return of sending poorly trained, mobilized soldiers into battle.

During his tenure as commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine, Surovikin kept his “day job” as commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS), which included air defense. On December 5, 2022, the Engel-2 and Dyagilevo military airfields deep within Russia were attacked by Ukraine. Two Tu-95 strategic bombers and one Tu-22M3 bomber were damaged, and up to six Russian servicemembers were killed. On December 26, Engels-2 was attacked for a second time. During this period, the relationship between the Kremlin and Prigozhin had become toxic, and Russian troops had been in retreat for months except at Bakhmut, where daily advances were measured in the 10s of meters. It had become clear there would be no major victory for Russia for New Year’s celebrations.

On January 11, 2023, Surovikin was relieved of command and named a Deputy of Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. The next day, PMC Wagner claimed they had captured Soledar, with the Russian Ministry of Defense not crediting the Wagnerites in their daily morning report.

Surovikin’s alignment with PMC Wagner was well known, and the relationship between the Kremlin and Prigozhin was already souring in October 2022. In May 2023, when Priogzhin threatened to leave Bakhmut by May 10, there were accusations that Surovikin was warning Wagner’s leader that the Kremlin was actively working to dismantle his company.

During the failed Prigozhin Insurrection on June 23, 2023, Surovikin made a video appeal to Prigozhin to stop his actions while holding a submachine gun on his knee. Shortly after, Surovikin was arrested, reportedly briefly held at Lefotovo Prison, before being transferred to an apartment where he remains under house arrest. On August 22, 2023, he was officially dismissed as the commander of the Russian VKS, and his future is unclear.

PMC Wagner Group Leaders Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmytry Utkin

Accomplishments: The capture of Popasna, Soledar, and Bakhmut and proved Russian penal units could be useful in battle

Private Military Company Wagner Group was asked to support the expansion of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in March 2022, and up to 1,000 mercenaries arrived on March 19. Wagner Group’s first action was in the Hirske-Zolote region and took a leading role in the capture of Popasna. That Russian advance ultimately severed the T-513 Highway between Lysychansk and Bakhmut in early June 2022, strangling Ukrainian logistics.

Also in May, Wagner’s mercenaries joined the Russian forces advancing in the direction of Bakhmut and Soledar from the Svitlodarsk Bulge. In early June, Prigozhin convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow him to create a battalion of penal soldiers assigned to PMC Wagner. One thousand convicts were recruited from Russian prisons and deployed east of Bakhmut in late June. The initial group suffered catastrophic losses of up to 90% killed and wounded, but the Kremlin believed the program was successful. Project K was born, and Prigozhin was given open access to Russia’s 335,000-plus prisoners. From July to December 2022, 49,000 criminals were recruited into the ranks of PMC Wagner. Recruiting of penal mercenaries peaked in October, but the numbers dropped sharply in November as word spread through the prison population of poor training, heavy losses, and penal units used for human wave attacks. In June 2023, the Council of Commanders reported that from March 2022 to May 2023, Wagner’s casualty rates were 82.5%.

While the September 2022 information war against General Lapin led by Prigozhin and Kadyrov was successful, politically, it was costly. The crumbs of goodwill between Prigozhin and Shoigu blew away like dust in the wind. Prigozhin was furious after the Russian Ministry of Defense snubbed Wagner Group in January 2023 and did not credit his mercenaries for the capture of Soledar. Hours later, the Kremlin released a clarifying statement, acknowledging that the ground fighting was accomplished by PMC Wagner and not just “volunteers.”

The political fallout was swift, and it became clear that President Putin was pulling away from his former caterer turned warlord. Shoigu effectively ended Project K, blocking PMC Wagner from further recruitment at Russian penal colonies. Wagner Group was already facing a recruiting crisis among its regular ranks because the pool they would normally recruit from – Russian soldiers – were dying at an alarming rate, didn’t want to return to Ukraine, and were facing stop-loss orders from the Kremlin, which was extending their service contracts. Days later, Shoigu created his own penal unit PMC called Storm-Z.

In February 2023, Prigozhin infamously threatened to leave Bakhmut, releasing a video with dozens of dead Wagnerites in the background, claiming their deaths were caused by the Russian Ministry of Defense withholding ammunition. Reactions in the Russian information space were mixed, with some Russian commanders claiming that Wagner was not being singled out for special treatment, stating that ammunition shortages were an issue theaterwide. Others criticized Prigozhin, asserting that PMC Wagner had been given preferential treatment at the expense of other axes and that the successes in Bakhmut were not due to superior training and tactics but an excess of ammunition that had been normalized. Others defended the mercenary leader, pointing out that the Wagnerites were the only force achieving operational success in Ukraine.

Prigozhin and Kadyrov hinted that the Chechen military leader provided some ammunition to Wagner Group in mid-February. In late February, the stalemate appeared to break when a lull in Russian artillery fire missions in the Bakhmut and Soledar areas of operation ended.

On May 5, Prigozhin made another video again standing in front of dozens of corpses, claiming they were Wagner mercenaries unnecessarily killed. He infamously growled, “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where’s the fucking ammo,” claiming the Kremlin had cut off his ammunition supplies and that elite Russian forces who were supposed to defend his flanks in Bakhmut were doing nothing. Prigozhin declared that if he didn’t get sufficient ammunition within 48 hours and Russian forces defending his flanks didn’t rejoin the battle, he would withdraw his forces.

WBHG News analysts noted that the April deal between the Russian Ministry of Defense and PMC Wagner, which transferred the defense of the flanks to Russian units while Wagnerites continued fighting within Bakhmut, was meant to destroy Wagner. The Kremlin only tasked Russian forces to hold the existing defense lines and focused on using artillery to protect themselves as Wagner mercenaries fought house-to-house in bloody attritional warfare. Moscow was repeating its policy of using indigenous and proxy forces to fight in the most difficult areas while preserving their own units, and Prigozhin could not or refused to see the true nature of the agreement.

It is also important to note that unlike in February 2023, when there was a noticeable decrease in Russian artillery fire, there was no such decrease in May. Prigozhin wasn’t facing an ammunition shortage. He was facing a staffing crisis caused by an appalling casualty rate and his inability to recruit new penal mercenaries.

The mercenaries that joined the ranks of Wagner Group in October and November who weren’t dead or badly wounded were reaching the end of their six-month contracts. While some analysts believed that Prigozhin would arbitrarily extend their contracts beyond six months, the team at WBHG News accurately predicted that would not happen. Prigozhin was a former convict who deeply believed convicted criminals could create a new life after prison. Prigozhin understood that if he didn’t honor his contracts with the penal mercenaries he always called “his boys,” he would break one of the foundations of the unwritten Russian convict code.

After Prigozhin’s May 5 video, General Kadyrov, who days earlier had called Prigozhin “his good friend” and said that the pair had planned surprises for Ukraine, lashed out at his former partner and questioned his loyalty to Russia. Two days later, while taking another swipe at Prigozhin and his “ego,” Kadyrov claimed that the pair had agreed for Chechen Akhmat to take over the offensive in Bakhmut. In a video posted on his Telegram channel, Kadyrov showed his letter to the Kremlin sent on May 7, which Moscow rejected.

On May 8, Prigozhin announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense told him that if his forces left on May 10, he and his mercenaries would be arrested for treason. Trapped militarily, legally, and politically, he announced the Wagnerites would stay until Bakhmut was captured. At the time of his capitulation, Wagner Group controlled 93% to 95% of the city. On May 20, Prigozhin announced the mission was accomplished, even if the victory claim was dubious. There has never been a picture of Russian troops in the Litak region of Bakhmut, the last Ukrainian stronghold in the southwest corner, and very few pictures and videos from Russian state media, troops, or Wagnerites west of the railroad tracks that split the city.

On June 1, Wagner started its withdrawal, and on June 10, the city was handed over to Russian forces. The Kremlin announced that all Private Military Companies would no longer be commanded independently and would have to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by June 20, accepting to be under the command of the Russian Federation Armed Forces effective July 1. Up to two dozen PMCs fighting on behalf of Russia had been created since the start of 2023, and the mandate also impacted General Kadyrov. Kadyrov made a clean break from Prigozhin politically, throwing his loyalty back to Shoigu as he announced he was the first leader to sign a transfer of control with the Kremlin.

Prigozhin refused, and as the June 20 deadline passed, it was clear that a clash between PMC Wagner and the Kremlin was inevitable. Late on June 21, he released a rambling video accusing the Kremlin of lying about attacks on civilians in the Donbas, claiming the war against Ukraine was escalated so that oligarchs had more access to natural resources and that the entire invasion of Ukraine was based on a lie. If Prigozhin was the leader of a nation, his words were tantamount to the breaking of diplomatic relations and a prelude to a declaration of war.

On June 22, Prigozhin made a dubious claim that his camps in occupied Luhansk were attacked by Russian missiles, causing over a thousand casualties. A video released as proof across multiple Wagner Telegram channels did not support his claim. Twelve hours later, Prigozhin and Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin led an insurrection specifically targeting Shoigu and Gerasimov while pledging their loyalty to President Putin.

Wagner mercenaries took control of Rostov-on-Don and surrounded the Southern Military District headquarters, barely firing a shot. Utkin led a brigade of Wagnerites in a convoy that advanced 670 kilometers in 12 hours toward Moscow. The so-called “March for Freedom” ended as quickly as it started, with Prigozhin asking his followers to stand down on June 24.

In the end, 15 to 22 Russian soldiers died, and seven helicopters and an Il-22M command and control plane were shot down. Part of a refinery was in flames, one highway bridge was destroyed, and at least three civilians were killed on June 24 when the Russian VKS started to bomb highways indiscriminately.

President Putin was invisible through the insurrection, but after it ended, he called the attempted rebellion treason and promised swift justice. Just 48 hours later, it was announced that Prigozhin would not face criminal charges, and two days later, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced he had created a peace deal between himself, Prigozhin, and Putin. PMC Wagner would relocate to Belarus, where Prigozhin would live in exile. WBHG News analysts never believed this was a firm deal and warned that previous history shows that anyone disloyal to Putin had ended up imprisoned, dead, or hiding after surviving an assassination attempt. Even among Putin’s former closest allies, there had never been an exception to this, and in 2018, Putin told a reporter that “betrayal” was unforgivable.

In early July, a camp to accommodate up to 8,500 Wagner mercenaries was built in Tsel, Belarus, and on July 15, Prigozhin posted a selfie showing himself in his underwear at the Belarus encampment. On July 19, PMC Wagner released a video showing Prigozhin and Utkin addressing a group of Wagnerites about the organization’s future, with the media-shy Utkin declaring in English, “Welcome to Hell!”

But just under the surface, the claims that 25,000 Wagner mercenaries would occupy Belarus to supplement Lukashenko’s army were questionable, and by mid-August, it was clear that if there ever was a three-way deal, it was over. All recruiting was suspended on July 30, with Prigozhin claiming they had “plenty” of mercenaries in their ranks. Wagnerites that had arrived two weeks earlier were leaving Belarus due to deployments in Libya, recruitment efforts by other PMCs, or a lack of pay as Wagner’s finances fell apart.

Prigozhin also stunned analysts and his detractors when he appeared in St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 28 at the periphery of the Russia-Africa Summit. The sting of the non-response from the Kremlin over the dead Russian airman was barely a month old, and some publicly wondered how Prigozhin, who was supposedly exiled, could be walking around in St. Petersburg as a free man.

On August 23, just hours after General Surovikin was formerly dismissed as the commander of the Russian VKS, Prigozhin’s Embraer Legacy 600 private jet was either shot down or destroyed by an explosive device over the Tver region of Russia while it was en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg. It is reported that Prigozhin, who carefully guarded his travel plans, decided at the last minute not to swap to the second private jet operated by PMC Wagner, an Embraer Legacy 650, that was also bound for St. Petersburg.

Ten people were killed, including the pilot, co-pilot, and a flight attendant operating on a one-day contract because she needed to travel to St. Petersburg. Among the seven members of PMC Wagner that were killed,

  • Yevgeny Prigozhin – figurehead and leader focusing on media, social media, psychological operations, and commercial catering
  • Dmitry Utkin – creator of the name “Wagner,” known white nationalist, and the military leader of PMC Wagner
  • Valery Chekalov – Head of logistics operating under the title of “business advisor”

None of the dead have been officially identified, but President Putin referred to Prigozhin in the past tense in a formal statement, as did Kadyrov. The Wagner Group’s Council of Commanders declared they would not make a formal statement until after the Kremlin provided its official reason for the downing of the airplane.

Of the eight Russian military and mercenary leaders who achieved key objectives since February 24, 2022, three are dead, two are held in custody, one is missing, one was dismissed, and one, General Lapin, was reassigned. Putin’s protection of Shoigu and Gerasimov is unwavering despite their unwavering loyalty, despite the documented corruption and repeated mistakes. For any other Russian or Russian-aligned senior military leader who finds success on the battlefield in Ukraine, it comes with the occupational hazard of falling out of favor or, worse, from the sky.

Russia-Ukraine War

Vysokopillya liberated as Russians retreat in Kherson

September 4, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,111 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Kherson & Mykolaiv

Ukrainian forces liberated the strategic town of Vysokopillya in northern Kherson, breaking through the main defensive line of Russian forces and pushing them back 12 kilometers across open wheat fields. The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the defeat, claiming they withdrew from the settlement to prevent encirclement and to protect the civilian population.

Ukrainian forces took control of Arkhanelske and blocked the Russian withdrawal through Novopetrivka, putting the Russian garrison at risk of encirclement, forcing the withdrawal. Videos show that Ukrainian forces took POWs and captured military equipment and ammunition.

Ukrainian forces also liberated Blahodativka, expanding the bridgehead along the Inhulets River. There were reports that Bilohirvka was secured, and troops were pressuring the Russian garrison in Bruskynske. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that troop positions in Kostromka and Bezimenne were hit by air strikes, confirming that Ukrainian forces have pushed at least 10 kilometers into Kherson since August 29.

Ukraine began setting conditions to collapse the Vysokopillya salient on July 27, when it began closing in on Russian positions, attacking supply lines, and destroying Russian air defenses. Despite claims from the Kremlin of devastating losses, an anonymous official said that losses were “lighter than expected.”

Russian artillery hit a warehouse full of ammonium-nitrate fertilizer on the southern edge of Ukrainian-controlled Partyzankse, causing a massive explosion. The blast obliterated the facility, with only a large crater remaining.

Ukrainian forces captured a defensive position near Myrolyubivka after Russian troops fled. A video showed an abandoned BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), an extensive network of shallow trenches, scattered ammunition, and stolen cars and motorcycles. A HIMARS attack destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Tomnya Balka.

Geolocated photos indicate that Ukrainian forces are moved back into the northern edge of Kyselivka, recapturing the checkpoint on the M14 highway.

In Kherson, the Lost World Hotel and Resort, which was being used as a military barracks by Russian troops, was destroyed. Video taken from the Russian military ferry crossing the Dnipro River captured a HIMARS attack on the Antonovsky Bridge and ferry landing. Another attack destroyed the Russian ferry crossing at Lvove.

Dnipropetrovsk & Northern Zaporizhia

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was disconnected from its main 750 KW power line, with power supported by a 330 KW backup line. Due to the failure, the International Atomic Energy Agency was informed that Reactor 5 was disconnected due to power grid restrictions. The IAEA applauded Ukrainian cooperation and the actions of Energoatom employees in a press release.

“Our team on the ground received direct, fast, and reliable information about the latest significant development affecting the plant’s external power situation, as well as the operational status of the reactors,” Director General Rafael Grossi said.

“The great value of finally having the IAEA permanently present at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is already abundantly clear. It is a game changer,” he added.

On September 2, investigative journalists recorded video from the north bank of the Dnipro River, which conclusively showed Russia is firing rockets from MLRS immediately west of the main complex at ZNPP.

Nikopol was shelled and hit by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). The overnight attack damaged five homes and several barns. There were no injuries.

Southern Zaporizhia

South of Orikhiv, Ukrainian forces have advanced on Nesterianka, Kopani, and Robotyne, while fighting near Poholy continued. The airport outside Melitopol was hit by HIMARS for the tenth time, with five rockets striking the base.

Donetsk

Northwest of Donetsk city, Novobakhmutivka was liberated, and Ukrainian forces are contesting the control of Novoselivka.

A day after the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Pisky was captured, Russian sources reported Ukrainian troops had recaptured strong points on the E-50 Ring Road. Given their location, it is highly likely that Ukrainian troops have regained a toehold in the northern part of the tactically important village, which has been the site of fighting since July 22.

The 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance on Avdiivka and Pervomaiske but could not change the tactical situation. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Marinka and were unsuccessful.

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Bakhmut

The Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Infantry Brigade reportedly launched a counteroffensive in Soledar and was able to push Russian forces back from the gypsum mine area. Geolocated video showed Ukrainian forces clearing the southwest corner of the mine in close combat against Russian troops. Russian forces remain in the KNAUF-GIPS sheetrock factor that straddles Bakhmutske and Soledar. However, Ukrainian forces were able to capture defensive positions on the northern edge of Povoroske.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, fighting continued in Kodema, with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group regaining some lost ground. Kadyrovites with the 141st Akhmat failed to advance on Zaitseve.

Northeast Donetsk and Luhansk

Ukrainian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets River and liberated Ozerne, defeating Kadyrovites with the 141st Akhmat Batallion. Russian forces denied the claims, saying the advances were a publicity stunt for a photo opportunity. President Volodymyr Zeleneskyy verified the capture in his evening television address.

Serhei Haidai, exiled Luhansk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that up to 300 Russian soldiers were killed in Kremennya after a barracks and a concentration of equipment was hit by rockets fired from HIMARS in multiple attacks.

Izyum

Russian forces launched an offensive on Pasika, 14 kilometers southeast of Izyum, indicating that Ukrainian forces had again pushed deep into occupied territory. Russian forces also attacked Dolyna and Bohorodychne, with intense fighting for the latter.

Kharkiv

A Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile used for an air-to-surface attack hit a group of restaurants in the Kyiv district of Kharkiv, destroying the structure and businesses. Over 2,200 square meters of commercial property were destroyed. The missile struck overnight while the popular eateries were closed. Pictures clearly showed the area that was destroyed. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the location was a barracks for the Kraken Battalion after claiming the Battalion was completely destroyed in fighting near Siversk three weeks ago.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported the hromadas of Bilopillia and Krasnopillia were hit by mortars and artillery shells fired from across the international border. There were no casualties reported.

In Chernihiv, at the historical center, an outdoor display of captured Russian weapons went terribly wrong. A grenade launcher was apparently still armed and somehow misfired. Four children were injured, with one in critical condition. Two people have been arrested.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian disinformation about the counteroffensive in Kherson has permeated all Russian sources. There are growing signs that Russia’s defense is not going as well as the Kremlin wants the world to believe.
  2. Russian disinformation appears to be setting conditions for explaining the yet-proven failures in Kherson on NATO weapons and rumors of looming chemical and biological attacks.
  3. Ukraine has quietly launched smaller counteroffensives in Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv over the last 72 hours, in addition to the counteroffensive in Kherson, supporting our previous assessment that the Russian military has reached a theaterwide state of combat destroyed.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine makes slow progress in Kherson as counteroffensive continues

September 2, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,109 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Kherson & Mykolaiv

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues its media blackout and press coverage restrictions until September 5. Ukrainian armed forces, the local population, and most press sources have honored the request. Gaining verified information while respecting operational security (OPSEC) has been a challenge.

Video emerged of a Russian forward operating base in Shyroka Balka that was destroyed in what appears to have been a HIMARS attack.

Ukrainian forces are finding the most success on the Inhulets River bridgehead. Pro-Russian accounts reported Ukraine had liberated Kostromka and was fighting for control of Bruskynske. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Lozove, Sukhyi Stavok, and Velyke Artakove were hit by air strikes, confirming that Ukrainian troops were present in all three settlements.

Pro-Russian account Rybar reported continued fighting for control of Arkhanhelske and claimed that Russian troops were pushed out of Olhnye and Vysokopillya but were able to push back into the southern parts, where street fighting continued. A video showed Ukrainian forces shelling Russian positions in the city’s southern tip.

The General Staff also reported that Ukrainian positions in Lyubomirivka and Petrivka were shelled, and Khreshchenivka was hit by an airstrike.

Operational Command South reported an additional strike on the Kakhovka and Dariivsky Bridges, including destroying a partially rebuilt pontoon bridge at Darivka. Ukraine claims to have fire control over the remains of the three bridges over the Dnipro. Satellite imagery shows only one ferry operating across the Dnipro at Kherson and no additional work on the barge bridge.

The Ukrainian air force carried out 24 air strikes, which is a significant increase from the 16 missions flown on August 30.

Dnipropetrovsk & Northern Zaporizhia

United Nations inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived in Enerhodar and took an initial survey of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. IAEA Director General Mariano Grossi reported that a team of five inspectors would remain at the plant through September 2 for a deeper audit of the situation. Inspectors were filmed by Russian state media going through the plant and discovering military equipment stored by Reactor 1, as shown in previous undercover videos.

Earlier in the day, minutes after inspectors left Zaporizhzhia city to travel to the plant, heavy shelling of the green corridor started. Thirty minutes later, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine had launched a paratrooper attack on the plant using helicopters. Videos from Enerehodar showed Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters flying over the city – equipment the Ukrainian armed forces do not possess and would not be able to obtain from western sources.

Valentyn Reznichenko, Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, reported that the Chervonohryhorivka hromada (an area of territorial control similar to a county or parish in the United States) was hit by several Grad rockets. A 56-year-old man attempted to escape by driving away, and his car was hit by a rocket. Amazingly he survived and is in stable condition. It was the only area shelled overnight.

Southern Zaporizhia

A HIMARS attack on the Russian-controlled airbase in Melitopol landed ten rockets on an ammunition depot. There were multiple social media reports of a large fire with secondary explosions.

Donetsk

Fighting increased in intensity west of Donetsk, but Russian forces didn’t make any gains. The 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance on Avdiivka, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. All five advances failed. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed for the eighth time since August 5 that Pisky had been captured.

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Bakhmut

PMC Wagner and the 2nd Army Corps of the LNR relaunched their attacks on Soledar and Bakhmutske but remained unable to break through Ukrainian defenses. Wagner Group is suffering catastrophic losses after a month of repeated attacks on Bakhmut but continues to send reinforcements to attack the same Ukrainian positions. Ukraine was able to rotate defending units, with most territorial guards replaced with better-equipped and trained forces.

Further south, LNR separatists continued their attempts to advance on Vesela Dolyna and Zaitseve. Gains were made in Vesela Dolyna but measured in meters, and the attack on Zaitseve was unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, fighting for Kodema continued, with Russian forces establishing their positions in the eastern part of the village. Russian forces made a new attempt to advance on Mayorsk and could not break through the Ukrainian defenses.

Izyum

Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and were unsuccessful. The Russian air force attacked Nova Dmytrivka and Bohorodychne.

Kharkiv

Russia fired a single S-300 antiaircraft missile at Kharkiv city. The missile successfully shot down four parked cars and left a large crater in the ground. There were no injuries.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported the hromadas of Krasnopillia, Nova Sloboda, Znob-Novhorod, Esman, and Kyrykivka, were shelled by Russian forces firing from across the international border. In the village of Maiske, two cars, a garage, and a home were damaged.

Russian forces fired across the international border and shelled Kamianska Sloboda, Zaliznyi Myst, and Senkivka in the Chernihiv oblast. There weren’t any reports of serious damage or casualties.

Daily Assessment

  1. There is enough available evidence indicating that Ukraine is making progress in the Kherson counteroffensive in three locations, despite Kremlin claims that it has already failed.
  2. Russian President Vladimir Putin has set September 15 as the new deadline to capture the remainder of the Donetsk oblast, and in our assessment, that is impossible.
  3. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues its aggressive disinformation campaign about the counteroffensive.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

IAEA inspects Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Russians surrender in Pravdyne

September 1, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,108 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Kherson & Mykolaiv

Fighting is ongoing in four areas: Arkhanhelske-Olyhne-Vysokopillya, south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk border east of Vysokopillya, the bridgehead east of the Inhulets River, and northwest and west of Kherson city.

Geolocated video showed Russian troops surrendering in Pravydne. Soldiers were furiously waving white flags in a video recorded from a drone.

Ukrainian troops have expanded the Inhulets River bridgehead taking control of Kostromka and fighting for control of Bruskynske and Davydiv Brid. Both towns are located on the critical T-2207 Highway, the main Russian Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line) into the northern regions of the Kherson oblast. Ukrainian forces have advanced 9 kilometers since August 29.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released multiple videos showing Bayraktar TB-2 drones attacking Russian positions and equipment, providing additional proof that Ukraine holds air superiority over the battlefield.

Operational Command South reported that targeting Russian troop concentrations, command posts, ammunition depots, and antiaircraft systems were prioritized. Ammunition warehouses in the areas of Beryslav, Heniches’k, and Kherson were destroyed.

Ukraine continued to target the Antonovsky Bridge, the Kakhovka Bridge, and the Dariivsky Bridge. Operational Command South reported that the pontoon bridge adjacent to the Dariivsky Bridge was destroyed, severing the GLOC that connects western and eastern Kherson over the Inhulets River.

The Ukrainian air force carried out 24 air strikes, which is a significant increase from the 16 missions flown on August 30.

Dnipropetrovsk & Northern Zaporizhia

United Nations inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Association arrived in Enerhodar and completed their initial inspection of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Video provided by Russian state media showed inspectors walking past Russian military equipment located in the Reactor One complex. A tentative agreement to leave four to eight inspectors at the plant appears to have been reached, and additional review will continue.

Earlier in the day, minutes after inspectors left Zaporizhzhia city to travel to the plant, heavy shelling of the green corridor started. Thirty minutes later, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine had launched a paratrooper attack on the plant using helicopters. Videos from Enerehodar showed Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters flying over the city – equipment the Ukrainian armed forces do not possess and would not be able to obtain from western sources.

Nikopol was targeted by Russian helicopters and artillery fire in four separate strikes. The city’s city council building was targeted and suffered significant damage.

Southern Zaporizhia

There wasn’t any fighting in southern Zaporizhia we can report without breaking operational security. Fighting in the direction of Polohy and Tokmak continued.

Donetsk

The combat ineffective 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) threw itself at Ukrainian positions west of Donetsk. Fighting occurred Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. All four advances failed.

DNR forces fought positional battles in the eastern part of Marinka supported by the Russian air force, with surviving troops retreating to Oleksandrivka. They also attempted to flank Marinka from the south with a failed advance on Pobjeda.

Russian forces launched an offensive in the area of Vodyane, attempting to advance on Vuhledar from the east. The attack failed, and surviving troops returned to their previous defensive positions.

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Bakhmut

Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), continued attacks on Bakhmut, where the situation remains unchanged. The villages, towns, and cities around Bakhmut were shelled, but artillery fire was reduced compared to yesterday.

Further south, LNR separatists continued their attempts to advance on Vesela Dolyna. The attack was repulsed, and Russian forces retreated to their defensive lines.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, fighting for Kodema continued, with Russian forces making gains in the eastern part of the stronghold. Russian forces continued attempts to advance on Zaitseve and launched a new attack on Mayorsk – both were unsuccessful.

Kharkiv

North of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched an attack on Prudyanka, which was unsuccessful.

Pro-Russian accounts continued to spread rumors that Ukraine will or has restarted the counteroffensive north of Kharkiv. There was no evidence to support these claims.

Russia fired four Iskander-M missiles from Belgorod toward Kharkiv, with one failing after launch, going off course, and exploding in the Belgorod area. Oleg Syniehubov, the Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported a second missile suffered a catastrophic failure during flight. The last two landed in the Kyiv district of the city. Two people were injured, and a college was damaged.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported the settlements of Bilopillia, Shalyhyne, and Karsnopillia, were shelled by Russian forces firing from across the international border. About 50 mortar shells were fired, with more than half landing in Bliopillia. There weren’t any injuries or significant damage reported.

Russian forces fired across the international border and shelled Hai and Bleshnya in the Chernihiv oblast. There weren’t any reports of serious damage or casualties.

Beyond Ukraine

Reports of Russian artillery systems wearing out and ammunition shortages continue to grow. Andrii Morozov, milblogger and soldier in the Russian 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic, reported that ammunition is becoming a critical issue. He additionally condemned the quality of the Russian 3rd Army Corps troop starting to arrive in the Donetsk area.

The Russian Federation retired the 122mm artillery systems in 2019, which have been heavily used in Ukraine. A lack of replacement parts is causing catastrophic failures, also known as banana peeling barrels, and a “hunger” for ammunition. DNR and LNR troops are transitioning to the 152mm D20 howitzers first designed in 1947.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian military leaders are in disarray with rumors of Ukrainian counteroffensives imminent in Kharkiv and Donetsk without any evidence – Ukraine has initiative on the battlefield, and Russia is now having to respond.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense has started an aggressive disinformation campaign about the counteroffensive and realistic expectations for a counteroffensive – the MOD has already been forced to backtrack on false claims made on August 29.
  3. Russian forces are suffering from ammunition shortages and artillery equipment catastrophically failing, raising complaints from soldiers that requests for artillery support are going unanswered.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Ukrainians push deeper into Kherson as counteroffensive continues

August 31, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,107 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Kherson & Mykolaiv

The opening phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson continued, with several settlements confirmed as liberated within the opening hours.

Ukrainian forces liberated Ternovi Pody, 30 kilometers north of Kherson. Sukhyi Stavok was liberated on August 29 during the counteroffensive’s open hours, expanding the Inhulets River bridgehead and likely severing a critical Russian Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line). Geolocated video showed Arkhanhelske was liberated on August 29 by Ukrainian and Pro-Ukrainian Chechen forces. Olhyne and Vysokopillya find themselves in a technical encirclement, with Ukraine establishing complete fire control south of both settlements and Arkhanhelske liberated. We are aware of other settlements liberated but are respecting operational security.

Ukrainian forces hammered Russian positions across the entire line of conflict with artillery, rockets from MLRS, and HIMARS strikes. The Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson, the partially constructed barge bridge adjacent to it, and the ferry were repeatedly attacked. The Antonovsky Mist Railroad Bridge was also struck, along with the Dariivsky Bridge that crosses the Inhulets River. Satellite images show the bridge is heavily damaged with a large hole. The pontoon bridge adjacent to the Dariivsky Bridge was destroyed.

Multiple Russian milbloggers independently reported that Russian requests for artillery support and air strikes went unanswered. Ukraine established air superiority over Kherson, and there were already signs that ammunition supplies were becoming an issue in mid-August.

Dnipropetrovsk & Northern Zaporizhia

Early on August 31, Director General Mariano Grossi reported that the IAEA team was departing Kyiv to Zaporizhzhia and planned to stay for “several days” to evaluate the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Shortly after departing Kyiv, The Russian occupation head of the Zaporizhia region, Yevhen Balytskyi, said that the IAEA would only be allowed to stay at the plant for a day. The IAEA convoy arrived in Enerhodar late on Wednesday.

Nikopol suffered its heaviest barrage in over a week, with Ukrainian officials claiming that over 40 Grad rockets were fired from MLRS launchers located within the nuclear plant compound.

Southern Zaporizhia

Rockets fired from HIMARS destroyed an ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Tokmak in southern Zaporizhia.

The General Staff also reported that elements of the newly formed 3rd Army Corps had arrived in Zaporizhia for deployment to the front. The Russian occupation head of the Zaporizhia region, Balytski, reported that due to “family circumstances,” he has moved from Melitopol to Crimea.

Donetsk

There were only reports of positional fighting and reconnaissance in force west of Donetsk. DNR forces tried to improve their positions in Optyne, Pervomaiske, and, Krasnohorivka. All three advances failed, and DNR units suffered heavy losses.

The General Staff and Pro-Russian accounts reported intense fighting south of Pisky on the E-50 Ring Road and other locations close to the village.

DNR forces fought positional battles in the eastern part of Marinka and retreated to Oleksandrivka after failing to gain new ground.

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Bakhmut

Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), continued attacks on Bakhmut, where the situation remains unchanged.

Further south, LNR separatists continued their attempts to advance on Vesela Dolyna. The attack was repulsed, and Russian forces retreated to their defensive lines.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, fighting for Kodema continued, with the town attacked from three sides. Russian forces continued attempts to advance on Zaitseve and remained unsuccessful. The railroad yards of Mayorsk were shelled.

Izyum

Russian forces attacked Shnurky, 12 kilometers from the known line of conflict south of Izyum.

Kharkiv

Pro-Russian accounts are full of chatter that Ukraine is preparing to restart its counterattack north of Kharkiv. The rumor was started by wanted war criminal and deputy information minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Daniil Bezsonov.

Russian and Ukrainian forces traded artillery and rocket fire along the line of contact northwest, north, and northeast of Kharkiv. Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles slammed into the city center.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported the settlements of Khotyn, Richkivska, and Velykopysarivska were shelled by Russian forces firing from across the international border.

Russian forces fired across the international border and shelled Hai and Hremyach in the Chernihiv oblast. There weren’t any reports of serious damage or casualties.  

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukrainian forces have taken the initiative on the battlefield, with Russian military leaders moving assets around the battlefield concerned about a large offensive starting in Zaporizhia.
  2. Multiple Russian milbloggers are reporting that Russian troops in Kherson are not getting artillery support, and the air force is not operating along the line of conflict.
  3. Ukraine has liberated at least four settlements that we can reveal and have caused a technical encirclement of Russian troops in two towns.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Exhausted Russian army struggles to make gains in Ukraine

August 27, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,103 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Luhansk and Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka from Bilohorkiva. They suffered heavy losses, and their defensive line was overrun as they retreated.

Settlements around Siversk were shelled by artillery and rockets, with the Russian air force attacking Siversk and Spirne.

The August 26 HIMARS strike on Kadiivka killed up to 200 Russian airborne (VDV) troops, according to Serhiy Haidai, exiled Luhansk People’s Republic Administrative and Military Governor.

In Staroblisk, Askyar Laishev, a Ukrainian defector and the head of security for occupied Luhansk, was killed when a bomb planted in his SUV exploded.

Russian forces have set up an airbase for Mi-8 transport and Mi-52 attack helicopters in Luhansk.

Bakhmut

Chechen Kadyrovites reappeared, claiming to have an active role in the fighting for Soledar. The Russian air force, PMC Wagner, the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), with Kadyrovites taking the distant rear but claiming glory, launched a large attack on Soledar and Bakhmutske. Neither advance was successful, and it was reported that Russian troops suffered major losses.

A significant attack was also launched on Bakhmut from the east. It was reported that Russian proxy forces suffered severe losses.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces continued their attack on Kodema, supported by artillery and the Russian air force. Russian troops also tried to advance on Zaitseve. Fighting around the railroad yards continued in Mayorsk.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

The Donetsk People’s Republic 1st Army Corps only tried to advance on Nevelske, making two attempts – positional fighting to improve their tactical positions and then an advance, which failed.

Marinka was shelled and repeatedly hit by air strikes. Video released by Russian state media shows that DNR separatists were pushed out of the center of Marinka, with Ukraine holding most of the city again.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, Donetsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Pisky was shelled. We maintain the settlement is contested.

Near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces tried to advance on Prechystivka and were unsuccessful.

In Berdyansk, gauleiter Alexander Kolesnikov, the deputy police chief and head of traffic enforcement, was killed when a car bomb exploded in his vehicle.

Kherson

North of Kharkiv, Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka – again – and ended with the same result as the last four attempts, returning to their starting point.

The Azov Battalion shelled Russian positions in Ternova, destroying an ammunition depot.

Russian missiles hit the central district of Kharkiv city and the suburb of Derhachi.

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Izyum

A small group of Russian infantry attempted to advance on Karnaukhivka, over 7 kilometers south of the established line of conflict. They were met with small arms fire and retreated.

The General Staff reported that Russian forces had reestablished electronic warfare arrays near Izyum that disrupt GPS signals.

Russian forces fired artillery and rockets south of Izyum from Brazhkivka to Tetyanivka, while the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukraine fired rockets from HIMARS into Izyum.

Kherson

Ukraine struck the Kahkovka, Antonovsky, and Dariivsky bridges with rockets fired by HIMARS. The same section of the Antonovsky bridge has been repeatedly targeted by Ukraine, causing progressively worse damage. The Dariivsky bridge appeared cratered in a low-resolution satellite image, and Russia reinstalled the pontoon bridge across the Inhulets River.

The Kahkovka Bridge, which was already badly damaged, was struck while a Russian military convoy was crossing the structure. An extremely graphic video showed multiple body parts and torsos in Russian uniforms scattered across the bridge, with the smoking remains of military vehicles in the distance.

Russian forces have dug in defensive positions in Blahodatne [Mykolaiv] and are heavily shelling Ukrainian positions north of the Inhuletskyi Channel.

Dnipropetrovsk

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukraine shelled the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant twice but didn’t provide evidence.

Valentyn Reznichenko, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Nikopol was hit with seven artillery shells knocking out power to 5,000 and damaging a school and several homes. Marhanets was hit by 20 Grad rockets, and an area of dachas (second homes, typically a cottage) was badly damaged in Zelenodolsk.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that they would be sending a team of inspectors to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the coming week.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Esman, Shalyhyne, Khotin, Myropillia, and Bilopillia. Four civilians were wounded in Bilopillia and required hospitalization.

Daily Assessment

  1. Our assessment in early July that Russia had an inadequate number of troops to provide security and administration in occupied Luhansk was accurate, as an increasingly violent insurrection across a third of the oblast is gaining momentum.
  2. The mood of the Russian milblogger community has notably shifted to quiet resignation in the last 24 hours after a series of devastating HIMARS attacks this week and the realization that the Russian military has no solution for their “as advertised” performance.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces within Ukraine are combat destroyed – two small attempted advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv ended in failure, and Russian positions were overrun when they retreated, resulting in a territorial loss.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Russian state media news report shows military hardware at Zaporizhzhia nuke plant

August 25, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 26 weeks since Russia’s widespread invasion of Ukraine and 3,100 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Bakhmut

Private Military Company Wagner Group, supported by terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion, fought positional battles near Soledar and Bakhmutske. Lacking armor support, they were unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces fought positional battles south and east of Kodema but did not improve the tactical situation. There were reports of fighting around the train station at Mayorsk.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) lost control of parts of Pisky. Separatist troops attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of their positions in the direction of Pervomaiske but were unsuccessful.

Russian forces tried to advance on Nevelske using main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles with inadequate light infantry support. After suffering losses, separatist troops had to retreat.

Unable to advance further into Marinka, Russian forces attempted to flank Ukrainian positions but failed to advance into Pobieda.

On the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces attempted to advance on Pavlivka and continued to press toward Velyka Novosilka but did not move the line of conflict.

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Izyum

Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna. Due to diminishing artillery support, lack of fire control, and the advance conducted mainly by conscripts and unskilled forces, the attack was unsuccessful. There was an attempted advance in the direction of Nova Dmytrivka by a small Russian force, but they were sent back to Sherwood Forest.

Kherson

Ukraine struck the Kakhovka Bridge again with rockets fired by HIMARS. The bridge was severely damaged. The Antonovsky Bridge was attacked twice overnight. Its condition is unknown.

Several sources reported that Russian airborne troops (VDV) attempted to advance north from Oleksandrivka [Kherson] but could not traverse the open fields.

Russian troops tried to expand their area of control north of Blahodatne [Mykolaiv]. Due to the canal north of the town, only a small force could advance through a chokepoint and suffered heavy losses.

Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian lines near Arkhanhelske, trying to advance in the direction of Mykolaivka [Kherson] and were unsuccessful.

Dnipropetrovsk

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is unchanged, with rhetoric and accusations continuing by both belligerents.

In a stunning news report on August 24, Russian state media released a video that shows Russian BTR-80 infantry fighting vehicles within the power plant compound by Reactor 2. Russian occupiers claim they arrested two Ukrainian spies working for Energoatom. Leaders of the military garrison at the power plant allege that the duo documented military troop movements and equipment located at the plant and was sharing the information with Ukrainian officials.

Nikopol and Marhanets were shelled again by rockets fired by MLRS from across the Dnipro River. The attack was much smaller than at the start of the month, with 11 Grad rockets damaging homes.

Russian missiles struck the railway station in Chaplyne, which was full of civilians at the time The attack killed 25 and wounded 31. Just before midnight and about 20 kilometers away, Russian missiles crashed into the town of Velykomykhailivka, wounding eight as they slept in their homes.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Esman, Znob-Novhorod, Krasnopillia, and Bilopillia.

Kyiv

Two Russian missiles struck the Vyshhorod area north of Kyiv just after midnight. There were no reports of injuries.

Poltava

At least one Calibr cruise missile launched by the Black Sea fleet slammed into the ground near Myrhorod in the Poltava oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed they hit the Ukrainian air force base outside of the city, but video after the attack showed the missile successfully carved out a six-meter-deep crater in the middle of a dirt road.

Khmelnytskyi

Russian cruise missiles landed in Shepetivka, according to Serhiy Gamaly, Khmelnytskyi Oblast Administrative and Military Governor. Damage was reported to “critical infrastructure,” and three people were wounded.

Daily Assessment

  1. Unfortunately, our assessment that there would be punitive strikes on civilians and civilian infrastructure on Independence Day was accurate, with 25 people killed and 47 hospitalized in missile attacks across Ukraine.
  2. We anticipate more attacks on civilians, civilian infrastructure, and government decision-making centers over the next 24 to 72 hours.
  3. The Russian military within Ukraine has become combat ineffective theaterwide, with ground attacks becoming smaller along the entire 2,450-kilometer-long front.

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Russia-Ukraine War

War in Ukraine six months later, frozen front, Russian terror attacks, and more US aid

August 24, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 26 weeks since Russia’s widespread invasion of Ukraine and 3,100 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Breaking News

Widely expected Russian terror attacks on Ukrainian civilians, civilian infrastructure, and government centers came to be on Ukrainian Independence Day as the war entered its seventh month.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that 22 people were killed and up to 50 others were injured during a missile attack on the Chaplyne railway station in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. The strike destroyed at least four passenger railcars, and searchers are scouring the rubble for more victims.

The attack was one of many missile strikes across Ukraine and came two days after the United States Department of State advised Americans to leave Ukraine due to specific intelligence of planned attacks on civilians and government decision-making centers.

“The Department of State has information that Russia is stepping up efforts to launch strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and government facilities in the coming days,” according to the embassy’s website.

Bakhmut

Private Military Company Wagner Group, terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion, and the 2nd Army Corps led by the 6th Cossack Tank brigade of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted advances throughout the Bakhmut region and were unsuccessful.  

Assaults were led on the settlements of Soledar, Bakhmutske, and Bakhmut. A reconnaissance in force attack was made on Zaitseve, with Russian proxy forces suffering heavy losses.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces led attacks on Kodema, Zaitseve, and Kurdyumivka.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

North of Avdiivka, Donetsk People’s Republic separatists attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka but did not gain any new territory. 

Separatist troops repeated attempts to advance on Pervomaiske from the south and occupy the village of Nevelske. Video from Russian state media showed renewed fighting had erupted in Pisky, where DNR forces continued to struggle to hold control over the small village.

Ukraine was accused of shelling the government center for Donetsk in what was likely a false flag attack by Russian forces. DNR officials report three people were killed and nine injured.

South of Donetsk, Russian forces continue attempts to advance into Novomykhailivka. On the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces attempted to advance on Zolota Nyva again but did not move the line of conflict.

In Russian-controlled Tokmak, an ammunition depot was destroyed by rockets fired from HIMARS.

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Izyum

Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne using reconnaissance-in-force with support from the Russian air force, failed to improve their position, and retreated.

Kherson

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the settlement of Blahodatne [Mykolaiv] was captured. Based on the available intelligence, we have coded Blahodatne as captured.

Dnipropetrovsk

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is unchanged, with rhetoric and accusations continuing by both belligerents.

Anatolii Kurtiev, secretary of the Zaporizhzhia City Council, reported that Russian forces shelled the city overnight. Six apartment buildings were hit, but there was only light damage to facades and broken windows.

The city of Marhanets and Nikopol was shelled from across the Dnipro River, with reports of two injured.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Esman, Myropillia, Krasnopillia, and Velyka Pysarivka. There were no reports of significant damage or casualties.

In Chernihiv, the settlements of Zaliny Mist and Mykolaivka were shelled. There were no reports of damage or injuries.

Beyond Ukraine

A second blast tore through the Russian town of Timonovo, with ammunition exploding. Local officials released a statement after the explosion explaining that the sun caused it.

The Biden Administration announced a $2.85 billion military aid package for Ukraine that will provide long-term assistance and increase domestic defense production.

Daily Assessment

  1. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense validated our assessment from August 21 and 22 that Russian forces are running low on ammunition, causing combat operations to become ineffective.
  2. The Kremlin’s attempt to explain the slowdown in combat operations as going “all part of the plan” defies the reality that the Russian advance came to a near complete stop a week after NATO-provided HIMARS were deployed in Ukraine.
  3. Our assessment that the Kremlin and Alexander Dugin would use the death of Darya Dugina to bolster support for the “special military operation” was correct, with her hastily prepared funeral turned into an anti-Ukrainian spectacle.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Breaking News, National, Russia-Ukraine War

Intel on planned Russian attacks leads to State Dept. advising Americans to leave Ukraine

August 23, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,099 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Breaking News

The United States Department of State has urged all Americans to evacuate Ukraine due to specific intelligence of Russian plans to launch widescale attacks on civilians and government centers through the upcoming week.

“The Department of State has information that Russia is stepping up efforts to launch strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and government facilities in the coming days,” according to the embassy’s website.

“The U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens to depart Ukraine now using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so.”

Bakhmut

Near Bakhmut, fighting continues on the outskirts of Soledar. Russian forces have been unable to advance past the KNAUF-GIPS sheetrock plant.

Russian forces continued their attacks on Zaitseve, 10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut. Two advances were attempted, a storming action and a reconnaissance in force assault; neither was unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces only attempted an advance on Kodema but failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

North of Avdiivka, DNR separatists attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka but did not gain any new territory.

Separatist troops made another attempt to advance on Pervomaiske but failed to improve their tactical positions. The village of Nevelske came under attack by DNR separatists, who could not find a way to move through the exposed, artillery-blasted fields. Skirmishes in the area of Pisky continued.

An ammunition depot in Rozdolne was hit by rockets fired from HIMARS.

South of Donetsk, Russian forces continue to advance further into Novomykhailivka without success.

On the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces attempted to advance on Zolota Nyva again but did not move the line of conflict.

There are reports from reliable sources that Ukrainian forces have launched an offensive in the area of Polohy.

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Izyum

There is growing evidence that Russian forces in Izyum are experiencing shortages of artillery munitions, having to use antiaircraft guns for direct fire.

Kherson

Rockets fired by HIMARS hit the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson. There are unconfirmed reports that the strike occurred as a Russian column of supply trucks carrying ammunition was on the bridge.

An S-300 antiaircraft missile fired by Russian forces to attack Mykolaiv failed after launch and crashed in Russian-controlled Zelenivka, near Kherson.

Dnipropetrovsk

Ukrainian forces accused Russian troops of shelling the thermal plant in Enerhodar. A video showed the water feed lines damaged, and a man slumped over in the driver seat of a taxi with shrapnel damage.

Valentyn Reznichenko, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Marhanets was hit by artillery fire wounding two people. Nikopol was not attacked with Grad rockets for the first time in more than six weeks.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported a border skirmish involving light arms fire at an unspecified border village in the Shostka district.

Odesa, Crimea, and the Black Sea

Two cruise missiles were fired at the previously disabled Zatoka Bridge southwest of Odesa.

Beyond Ukraine

Moldova and Ukraine worked collaboratively to reopen the Berezyne-Basarabeasca rail connection. The completed upgrades have restored rail connections from the rest of Europe, bypassing the damaged Zatoka Bridge over the Dniester estuary.

Daily Assessment

  1. There wasn’t any reported ground combat in northeast Donetsk, Kharkiv, Izyum, or Kherson, which may be due to Russian staffing and supply challenges or a standdown order due to looming more significant attacks.
  2. The United States Department of State warning from the embassy in Kyiv validates our assessment that there is a very high chance of multiple and significant punitive strikes against Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure planned for the week of August 22.
  3. There is growing evidence that Russian forces on the Izyum axis are suffering from ammunition shortages, hampering their ability to hold the current lines of defense.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

Become a Patreon today!