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Port of Odesa hit by cruise missiles – Russia negotiated grain deal in bad faith – July 23, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,068 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations to permit grain exports from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port, Port of Odesa, and Pivdennyi [South] Port, Kalibr cruise missiles launched by the Russian Black Sea fleet slammed into the Port of Odesa.

Russia and Ukraine did not sign an agreement between the two nations, instead signing separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations, which would permit Ukraine to export up to 20 million tons of grain over the next 120 days. The agreement did not specify that Russia could not attack Ukrainian ports explicitly. However, with continued attacks, civilian port operations with cargo ships entering and exiting will be impossible.

Insurance rates for cargo vessels operating in the Black Sea have already skyrocketed, with over a dozen commercial vessels seized, bombed, or hit by Russian missiles since February 25 and one bulk carrier striking a mine.

Luhansk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military head, reported that Ukraine still controls two settlements in the Luhansk Oblast.

Northeast Donetsk – Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Ivano-Daryivka through Spirne and were unsuccessful.

Russian forces fired artillery at civilians, civilian infrastructure, and Ukrainian military positions in Siversk, Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Spirne. The Russian air force also attacked Sprine.

Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.

Bakhmut – Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group made small advances into the southern part of Pokrovske. Limited fighting occurred near the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant.

Artillery was fired on Bakhmut, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Pokrovske, and Vesela Dolyna.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Vodyane from Vesele.

HIMARS rockets struck an ammunition depot within the machinery plant in Russian-controlled Horlivka, northeast of Donetsk. Secondary explosions thundered across the city as the ammunition stored in the factory started to cook off.

In the south Donbas, there were artillery exchanges from Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Russian state media claims Ukraine attacked the Antonovskiy Bridge for the third time, but there are no photos or videos to support the reports. Russian officials report they will not attempt to repair the bridge. Instead, they plan to build a pontoon bridge to the south. The bridge is reported to be severely damaged and will take too long to repair.

Ukraine, likely using HIMARS rockets, moderately damaged the Russian-controlled Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River. The bridge is a critical water crossing on the 140-kilometer detour route for Russian armor and military supplies after the Antonovskiy Bridge was damaged in attacks earlier this week. Without the crossing, a large region of Russia-controlled Kherson will be cutoff from overland supply routes

Multiple reports are quoting different sources that up to 2,000 Russian troops are partially encircled in Vysokopillya.

Presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych provided additional details during a television interview, which clarified the situation more. Arestovych reported that Russian forces are 75% encircled in Vysokopillya. On July 21, Russian forces attempted a breakout by heading south through the opening in the salient but were pushed back by Ukrainian artillery fire.

Arestovuch reported they are two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) trapped, with an estimated 1,000 troops blocked from leaving the town. He said that Ukraine would not offer a green corridor for evacuation but would likely demand their surrender.

Russian forces captured Oleksandrivka [Kherson] on the banks of the Dnipro River.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed the T-2207 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) south of Davydiv Brid.

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Zaporizhia – A video showed Russian tent barracks on the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar being attacked by kamikaze drones. The tents were located about 300 meters from the reactor blocks. Using a nuclear power plant for barracks and as a firebase to launch artillery and rockets represents a break from accepted military protocol, which considers nuclear power plants “no go” zones. Three Russian soldiers were killed and nine wounded in the attack. Additionally, a Grad Mulitple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which was parked between two cooling towers for the plant, was damaged in the attack. The video and pictures published after the strike show that no part of the nuclear power plant was damaged.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted a ground assault on Udy and there were skirmishes in Tsupivka and Dementiivka.

Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.

Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.

Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis. In Prydonetske, Ukrainian artillery destroyed an entire artillery company, including eight 152mm towed howitzers, ammunition, and command and control. Prydonetske is located east of Izyum in the area Russians call “Sherwood forest.”

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyginsk and Krasnopil were shelled.

Odesa – Four Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Russian Black Sea Fleet targeted the Port of Odesa, with two striking the facility. Serhii Bratchuk, an Odesa Military administration spokesperson, said two missiles hit the port, and Ukraine’s air defense shot down two. The port suffered moderate damage, and a fire broke out, but the missiles missed the grain silos. The attack came less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to provide safe corridors for grain exports. The reaction from officials was swift and furious.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres “unequivocally” condemned the attack through a spokesperson.

“Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “This indicates only one thing: no matter what Russia says and promises, it will find ways how not to fulfill it. Geopolitically, with weapons, bloody or not, but it has several vectors, [this is] how it always acts.”

“That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added on Twitter. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said the bloc “strongly condemns” the attack.

People’s Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko wrote on Telegram, “There is a fire in the port of Odesa. Here is a grain corridor for you. These bastards are signing contracts with one hand and sending missiles with the other.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Nikolenko wrote, “It took less than 24 hours for the Russian Federation to launch a missile strike on the territory of the city of Odesa to question the agreement, and the promises it made to the UN and Turkey in the document signed yesterday in Istanbul.”

“The Russian missile is Vladimir Putin spitting in the face of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, who made a huge effort to reach the deal, and to whom Ukraine is grateful.”

The US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget A. Brink, called the Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa “outrageous,” writing, “Russia strikes the port city of Odesa less than 24 hours after signing an agreement to allow shipments of agricultural exports. The Kremlin continues to weaponize food. Russia must be held to account.”.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Saturday that Russia claimed it had “nothing to do” with the strikes.

“It really concerned us that such an event happened after we signed the deal on grain shipments. We are disturbed as well. But we continue to fulfill our responsibilities about this agreement, and we also expressed in our meetings that we are in favor of the parties to continue their cooperation here calmly and patiently,” said Akar.

Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was hit with up to 13 Russian cruise missiles, causing significant damage, killing three and wounding nine. The attack was a joint operation between the Russian air force and navy, with five Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and eight Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet hitting the region. Cruise missiles also slammed into the railroad facilities at Ukrzaliznytsia. An electrical substation was also targeted, knocking out electrical power in parts of the oblast capital of Kropyvnytskyi.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
  2. Ground offensives by Russian forces have become fewer and smaller a week after the “operational pause” was declared over.
  3. It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 9, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,053 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 8, there was only a minor territorial change related to liberation or capture in Ukraine. There weren’t major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, missile, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. To the west of the oil refinery, Ukrainians mounted a furious counterattack in Verkhnokamyanske and pushed Russian forces back to the Luhansk-Donetsk border.

Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported, “So far, no operational pause announced by the enemy has been observed. [Russia] attacks and bombards our lands with the same intensity as before.”

Northeast Donetsk – Siversk – Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged intense artillery fire. Russian forces shelled Zaitseve, Vershyna, Yakolivka, and Ivano-Darivka. The Russian air force attacked Spirne, with Ukrainian forces holding the Russian ground assault at the eastern edge of the settlement.

Bakhmut – No reliable source reported any major offensive or counteroffensive operations around Lyman, Siversk, Soledar, or Bakhmut. Russian forces tried to advance on Hrybhorivka, but the line of conflict remained frozen.

Pro-Russian social media accounts reported Ukrainian forces shelled Klynove, preventing terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion working with Private Military Company Wagner Group from advancing.

The most intense fighting was in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant. Russian forces tried to advance from Dolomitne, Novoluhaske, and Luhanske. They were unsuccessful in all areas.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets hit an ammunition depot just north of Russia-controlled Kadiivka. There have been numerous secondary explosions. The Kirovs’kyi fuel depot, hit by artillery or HIMARS-delivered rockets on July 7, continued to burn. Precision munitions hit another weapons facility in the Kalininskyi District of Donetsk. Secondary explosions indicate the target was an ammunition depot.

Kherson – Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine called for civilians in the occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to evacuate by all possible means.

“We must look for an opportunity to leave because our Armed Forces will [be liberating]. It will be a huge fight. I do not want to scare anyone – everyone understands everything anyway.”

In Kherson city, Explosions and fire from the ammunition depot and heavy weapons field service area Ukraine attacked on July 7, continued. Ukrainian forces destroyed another ammunition depot northeast of the water treatment plant in Kherson, on the border of Chornobaivka. There are multiple secondary explosions.

Russian forces attacked the Ukrainian bridgehead at Velyke Artakove along the Inhulets River and were unsuccessful in driving Ukraine out and could not destroy the wet crossing.

In Nova Kakhovka, Kherson, the Deputy Head of the Nova Kakhovka police, was assassinated by insurgents. Serhii Tomko was shot in his car.

Mykolaiv – In the Mykolaiv Oblast, the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade destroyed five Russian T-80 tanks using Stugnas and captured some of the tank crews.

Kharkiv – Northwest and north of Kharkiv, there were artillery exchanges and skirmishes, with neither belligerent launching offensive operations.

Southeast of Kharkiv, there was renewed fighting by Chuhuiv, with Ukrainian forces shelling the settlement of Hrakove. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) suggested there was fighting in Zaliznychne.

Izyum – Southeast of Izyum, Russian forces attempted to capture Bohorodychne and lost nine Main Battle Tanks (MBT). Multiple geolocated videos visually confirmed the losses. Five Russian tanks blundered into a minefield. The other four were destroyed in an artillery barrage. Additionally, Ukrainian forces recaptured a T-72B MBT that was captured by Russian forces in April.

Russian forces shelled Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Chepil.

South of Kramatorsk, the town of Druzhkivka was hit by Russian cruise missiles.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok again.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, Russian troops are maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas with artillery, rockets, air strikes, and offensive operations along the Luhansk-Donetsk border.
  2. Ukraine is vigorously defending Siversk, indicating that the next battle will likely be for control of the transit hub.
  3. Ukrainian forces continue to dismantle Russian command and control, ammunition, and fuel depots far behind the line of conflict, which is sapping the morale of Pro-Russian civilians who didn’t anticipate combat operations this deep into separatist regions.
  4. Supply interdiction by Ukrainian forces is impacting Russian air defense capabilities in Kherson, where Ukrainian air assets have regained air dominance.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 8, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,052 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 7, no territorial changes related to liberation or capture were reported, nor major combat operations by either belligerent theaterwide. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – In the Luhansk oblast, Ukrainian forces are contesting control of Bilohorivka to the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces destroyed the Russian wet crossing in Pryvillya between July 3 – 6.

Ukrainian officials and Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Luhansk is not under complete Russian control. NASA Fire Information Resource Management System (FIRMS) showed hot spots east of Topolivka and in the vicinity of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

In Russian-occupied Severodonetsk, an insurgency has already formed. Threats against the Chechen occupying forces and “wanted posters” have started to appear in the city.

Northeast Donetsk – There were widespread artillery and MLRS barrages by Russian forces in northeast Donetsk, likely setting conditions for a future offensive.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance into Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were able to advance into the eastern part of Verknokamyanske. Russian forces were held at the eastern edge of Spirne. Further south, Russian forces tried to capture the settlement of Berestove and were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut – East of Bakhmut, Russian forces have started to advance on Vesela Dolyna.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Vershyna. There were unsuccessful. Ukraine maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant and pushed Russian forces back incrementally in Luhanske. Russian forces suffered significant losses.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Ukrainian artillery or rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) struck the Kirovs’kyi fuel depot causing a massive fire. An ammunition depot was also destroyed near the George Dimitrov Number 112 school in Donetsk.

NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) rockets destroyed an ammunition depot in Shakhtarsk, 60 kilometers east of Donetsk.

Near Russian-controlled Melitopol, insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Novobohdanivka and Troitske.

Kherson – In Kherson, the sound of small arms fire could be heard within the city. The Russian base at Chornobaivka was attacked with artillery, and Ukrainian officials reported that up to 25 vehicles were destroyed. The area targeted was a repair center for light to moderately damaged Russian military vehicles, contributing to the unusually high number of losses.

Russian forces are trying to slow the Ukrainian advance west and northwest of Kherson, targeting Ukrainian-controlled areas with artillery and rockets fired from MLRS.

North of Kherson city, NASA FIRMS suggests there is fighting west of Ukrainian-controlled Lozove in Andriivka. Ukrainian attack helicopters fired on Russian positions in Davydiv Brid. Russian forces used artillery and MLRS to interdict the Ukrainian GLOC on the T-2207 highway from Osokorivka. Additionally, Russian forces did reconnaissance in force with understaffed platoons, launching two raids on Dobryanka and one on Myroliubivka. None of the attempts were successful.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces made another spoiling attack on Sosnivka and Dementiivka. Neither attack was unsuccessful. Otherwise, Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged artillery fire along the frozen front.

At least two Russian Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) struck the Nemyshlianskyi District of Kharkiv city, killing three civilians.

Izyum – There are reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed the recently repaired railroad bridge in Russian-controlled Kupyansk, north of Izyum. Southwest of Pisky-Radkivski, NATO-provided HIMARS systems were fired at a forward operating training base and staging area for Luhansk (LNR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) conscripts, Russian Federation Armed Forces contract volunteers, and terrorists with the Imperial Legion reporting to Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group.

Russian forces made another ad hoc advance into Bohorodychne, backed by intense artillery fire. They were unsuccessful and returned to previously held defensive lines on the edge of the settlement.

Sumy – In the Sumy oblast, Russian forces fired small arms into the settlement of Shalyhyne.

Odesa – Black Sea – On July 7 under cover of darkness, combat divers from Ukraine’s 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center used underwater vehicles to reach Snake Island. Special forces cleared sea and land mines, performed reconnaissance, and raised several Ukrainian flags. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Serhii Bratchuk of the Odesa Military Administration reported that the Russian air force fired two cruise missiles at Snake Island that struck the pier on the island’s north side at dawn.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles at the disabled Moldovian flagged tanker Millenial Spirit. The vessel was abandoned at anchor off the coast of Odesa after it was attacked on February 25. It is reported the ship is on fire but still afloat. The smoke was visible from Odesa.

Two more Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missiles hit grain warehouses near Odesa, holding 35 tons of cereals awaiting export.

Beyond Ukraine – Belarusian armed forces have extended ongoing military training exercises until July 16. In another provocation, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Major General Ruslan Kosygin, said that in the event of “Western provocations,” Belarusian forces will strike primarily on the infrastructure of Poland.

Daily Assessment

  1. Although Russian ground forces are in an operational pause, artillery and MLRS are still being used along the line of conflict, and civilians and civilian infrastructure continue to be targeted.
  2. Combat activity in the last 12 hours raises questions on whether the reports of an operational pause are authentic.
  3. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that in Ukraine, “we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,” is saber-rattling from the Kremlin unless Putin intends to declare war formally and mobilize.
  4. It appears that Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk, given the resistance against Russian advances on the edges of the Luhansk oblast.
  5. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they destroyed two to four HIMARS units on July 6 were patently false, and the NATO-provided HIMARS attacked critical military targets in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts.
  6. Russian forces continue to lose ground in Kherson despite bringing in reserve troops and increasing artillery fire.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 7, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,051 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

On July 6, there weren’t any territorial changes related to liberation or capture, nor major combat operations by either belligerent across the entire theater. Artillery, rocket, and air strikes continued, as well as skirmishes, reconnaissance in force, and positional battles.

Donetsk regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko urged the 350,000 civilians still living in the oblast to evacuate the area. Kyrylenko has stressed that fewer civilians will enable combat forces to focus on fighting and be less concerned about collateral damage.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhovika and Verknokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Southwest of Lysychansk, Ukrainian forces topped a Russian advance toward Spirne.

Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok and may be setting conditions to start an advance from Lyman.

The most intense fighting in Ukraine was in the Svitlodarsk bulge. Russian forces tried to capture Novoluhanske and Luhanske and were not successful. Ukraine also maintained control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. Insurgents destroyed a railroad bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak in an attempt to disrupt Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines)

Kherson – In Kherson, Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot adjacent to the Kherson city train station. Residents reported they could hear small arms fire coming from the direction of Chornobaivka.

Fighting continued near Snihurivka and at the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Inhulets River at Bila Krynytsya-Bilohirka.

Russian forces fired artillery and MLRS in the northern part of Kherson in an attempt to slow the Ukrainian advance. Fighting continued in Arkhanhel’s’ke.

Kharkiv – Russian forces attempted a spoiling attack on Sosnivka and were unsuccessful. Positional fighting near Vesele left the town contested but leaning towards Ukrainian control. Russian forces did airstrikes on Rubizhne [Kharkiv], a no man’s land in northeastern Kharkiv.

Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrivne, Krasnopilla, Dolyna, and Velkya Komyshuvakha. Russian troops made a small advance on Kurulka to test Ukrainian defenses and retreated.

Sumy – The settlements of Myropilska, Krasnopilska, and Khotinska were attacked by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). There were no injuries reported.

Odesa – Ukrainian forces arrived on Snake Island and did a flag-raising. There is no intention of occupying the island at this time. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed a cruise missile fired at Odesa.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Federation Armed Forces entered a theaterwide operational pause, although we cannot determine how long this will last.
  2. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire by Russian forces is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  3. Russian forces appear to be setting conditions to advance on Slovyansk-Kramatorsk when the operational pause ends.
  4. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.
  5. Russian forces continue to struggle in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces continue to make incremental gains and can attack Kherson city.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 6, 2022

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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 19 weeks since the Russia-Ukraine war started and 3,050 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previously announced scaleback of the war in Ukraine, limiting total victory to securing the Donbas, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, as well as securing the land bridge to Crimea, has been pushed aside. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu declared the Russian army will continue the “special military operation” in Ukraine until the tasks set by President Putin are “fully completed.”

Chairman of the Chechen Parliament Magomed Daudov declared a jihad in Ukraine to defend Muslims in Europe during a visit to Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration that the Luhansk oblast had been captured was spoiled less than 24 hours later, with Ukrainian forces contesting the settlement of Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Pro-Russian accounts and the Kremlin reported that “cleansing” was continuing south of Lysychansk to clear the area of remaining Ukrainian troops. There continues to be no evidence that Russian forces captured significant numbers of Ukrainian troops, weapons, or ammunition in Severodonetsk, Zolote-Hirske, or Lysychansk.

There was limited fighting west of Popasna, with Russian forces likely securing the settlement of Spirne.

Northeast Donetsk – Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the terrorist organization Imperial Legion and Russian artillery, captured Klynove, east of Bakhmut.

Russian forces are likely attempting to collapse the Svitlodarsk bulge, launching an offensive toward Vershyna. They were unsuccessful. Fighting continued in Novoluhanske and at the Vuhledar Power Plant.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) recaptured the settlement of Novobakhmutivka, southwest of Horlivka.

Northeast of Donetsk city, a video from Russian state media showed that Ukrainian forces collapsed a small Russian-controlled salient south of Pisky and are in control of the Russian defensive positions.

In Donetsk city, a Russian ammunition depot stored in a heavy truck dealership was destroyed by a Ukrainian artillery strike. There were multiple secondary explosions. Ukrainian forces also destroyed a large ammunition depot near the railroad station in Donetsk, with multiple secondary explosions after the strike.

There were reports of fresh explosions in the port of Berdyansk. Russian and Ukrainian officials have stated this is related to unstable munitions exploding during an attempted recovery of the Large Landing Ship (LLS) Saratov, which sank on March 24. The Saratov was hit by a Tochka-U missile which damaged two more LLS vessels and heavily damaged a cargo ship.

In Zaporizhia, Ukrainian forces continue to advance on Polohy. Fighting and artillery strikes were reported in Novopokrovka.

Kherson – The Ukrainian counteroffensive continued in Kherson, with significant gains made. Ukrainian forces liberated Myrne, northwest of Kherson. Russian forces suffered significant losses near Tomyna Balka from artillery fire and air strikes.

Satellite images from July 5 show the airport and Russian base at Chornobaivka suffered heavy damage after two ammunition depots were destroyed days apart. The Russian base appeared abandoned.

Multiple videos showed fighting and artillery exchanges on the northern edge of Snihurivka, with Ukrainian forces 3 kilometers north of the city limits. The Ukrainian air force also attacked Russian defensive positions.

Ukrainian forces reestablished a wet crossing over the Inhulets River near Velke Artakove and Bila Krynytsya. The settlements of Lozove and Bilohirka are under Ukrainian control. Pro-Russian accounts reported that Ukrainian forces had pushed to Sukhyi Stavok, almost 10 kilometers south. There were reports of renewed fighting in Davydiv Brid. A Russian ammunition depot in Velkya Oleksandrivka was destroyed.

In the north region of the Kherson oblast, Ukrainian forces collapsed the Vysokopillya salient, liberating the settlement of Olhyne. Intense fighting in Arkhanhelske continued, with a Russian ammunition depot destroyed on July 5. Ukrainian forces fired artillery at Russian troops retreating from Olhyne, northeast of Novopetrivka.

Mykolaiv – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the city of Mykolaiv.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched attacks in three directions from the stronghold in Kozacha Lopan on the settlements of Sosnivka, Prudyanka, and Dementiivka. None of the attacks were successful.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Krasnopillya and suffered heavy losses. Ukrainian artillery hit Russian positions in Dovhenke and Sosnove, destroying Main Battle Tanks (MBT), Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV), and support vehicles. Russian forces also attempted to advance southeast of Velyka Komyshuvahka and suffered significant losses.

In Northeast Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces started interdicting the Russian Belgorod-Kupyansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) with an artillery strike on Velykyi Burluk.

Chernihiv – Russian forces shelled and used MLRS on the border villages of Mkhy and Bleshnia in the northern region of Chernihiv.

Sumy – Russian helicopters fired rockets at the Esman in the Sumy oblast.

Odesa – Black Sea – Ukrainian air defenses intercepted three Russian cruise missiles near Odesa.

Western Ukraine – Three Russian cruise missiles struck the Yarmolyntsi in the Khmelnytskyi oblast.

Daily Assessment

  1. Phase 2 of the Russia-Ukraine War is over.
  2. Russian ground forces in eastern Ukraine appear to be in an operational pause.
  3. We cannot determine if the significant reduction in artillery fire in the northeastern region of the Donetsk oblast is due to this pause or interdiction of Russian supplies.
  4. Russian forces are struggling in Kherson, where Ukrainian forces are making steady territorial gains from the north, the west, and the southeast.
  5. Russia’s reset of its operational goals in Ukraine will be impossible to achieve without a formal declaration of war and full mobilization.
  6. The Kremlin is likely hoping to wear down western support by extending the war and capitalize on a looming leadership change in the United Kingdom and politically driven unrest in the United States, which closely resembles the start of “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland.
  7. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 5, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,049 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory after the Russian Federation Armed Forces secured the region 131 days after the widescale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin told Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shogui that the units in Luhansk “should rescue [and] increase their combat capabilities.”

It took 100 days for Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed militias to secure the last 7% of the Luhansk Oblast. The Russian military will likely start to work to establish administrative control of Severodoentsk and Lysychansk. The cities of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna had a combined pre-war population of 293,500. It is estimated that 18,500 civilians remain, with the rest fleeing the area – some into Russia and others into Ukraine. Most of those who stayed behind supported the Russian invasion or were poor, disabled, or didn’t want to leave their homes.

Northeast Donetsk – In the Siversk region, Russian forces have advanced over the T-1302 Highway and taken partial control of Spirne.

Widescale artillery barrages occurred through the region, including Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and Verkhonkamyanska. Other settlements shelled include Ivano-Daryivka and Berestove.

NASA FIRMS data suggest that the town of Raihorodok has been shelled.

In the Bakhmut-Soledar region, the settlements of Pokrovske and Soledar were shelled.

Fighting continued In the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhlehar Power Plant and Russian forces shelling Kodema. Russian forces are attempting to take control of Novoluhanske, southeast of the power plant and on the reservoir’s western shore.

Based on this intelligence, we maintain that Dolomitne is contested, and we are coding Novoluhanske as contested.

Southwest Donetsk and Zaporizhia – There were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast. There were reports of fighting near Rivnopil, but we could not verify the veracity of the reports.

We consider Bilohirya, Luhivske, Novopokrovka, Bahate, and Ukraniske, Rivnopil, Pyatkhatky, and Stepove [Zaporizhia] as contested.

Kherson – Russian forces continue to take a defensive posture and are attempting to slow the broad advance of Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces are attempting to interdict Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – aka supply lines) and firing artillery, Grad, and Smerch rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

Russian forces shelled Myrne northwest of Kherson, which would indicate the settlement is contested. There are reports that Pravdyne was liberated, and Myrne and Parysheve are contested. We cannot verify the veracity of these reports. However, the report of Myrne being shelled supports the settlement is contested.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Shyroka Balka, Sofiivka, and Krytyi Yar.

In the northern region of Kherson, Topolyne, Ivanivka, Knyazivka, Potomkyne, Dobryanka, Trudolyubivka, and Osokorivka were shelled by Russian forces.

Ukraine shelled the Russian-controlled settlements of Sukhyi Stavok, Lozove, Davydiv Brid, Velkya Oleksandrivka, and Novopetrivka.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces are in Lozove. We cannot confirm the veracity of these reports. There was a drone video that showed Russian troops being killed by small arms fire. The distance from the Inhulets River was over 700 meters. There may be Ukrainian Special Operation Forces on the east side of the river, but we don’t believe this indicates there is a more significant force in the immediate area.

Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters fired on Zarichne and Olhyne. On July 3, there was evidence of significant fighting in Olhyne, and we have coded the settlement as contested based on this intelligence update. If Ukrainian forces liberate Olhyne, it will represent the full collapse of the Vysokopillya salient.

Mykolaiv – The settlements of Lupareve, Shevchenkove, Chervona Dolyna, Kobzartsi, Partyzanske, and Bereznehuvate were shelled. There were no reports of cruise missile attacks.

Kharkiv – Northwest of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces did reconnaissance in force toward Kozacha Lopan from Sosnivka, likely to harass Russian positions. There were no other offensive operations in the area. There was scattered artillery fire along the rest of the line of conflict.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Mazanivka. In Dolyna, they were unsuccessful, and in Mazanivka, they moved the line of conflict to the settlement’s northern border. Russian forces attempted to advance on Virnopillya and suffered heavy losses, including eight armored vehicles.

Sumy – Russian forces continue firing at settlements across the international border in the Sumy oblast. A school was destroyed in Esman, and public utility infrastructure was destroyed in Nova Sloboda. Bilopillia was hit with at least 25 mortar shells and five missiles, injuring two people.

Chernihiv – Russian troops fired across the international border at the settlements of Mkhy and Zalizniy Mist. There were no reports of injuries or significant damage.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Ukrainian flag was dropped on Snake Island, symbolically taking control of the strategically important dot in the Black Sea.

Daily Assessment

  1. President Putin’s declaration of “rest” is not a charitable order from a benevolent leader but a tacit admission that Russian, Russian proxy forces, and Russia-backed separatists of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics have exhausted their combat strength and need to reconstitute.
  2. Russian forces continue to be pressured in the Kherson oblast and struggle to hold the line of conflict.
  3. Germany announced they are providing Ukraine with four additional M270 HIMARS systems and upgraded the software to work with the Ukrainian fire control systems.
  4. Ukrainian forces are using NATO-provided guided munitions fired from HIMARS to destroy multiple military targets a day.
  5. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 4, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,048 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast after capturing Bilohorivka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote, “After heavy fighting for Lysychansk, the Defense Forces of Ukraine were forced to withdraw from their occupied positions and lines.”

Pockets of resistance still exist in the Lysychansk area, but Ukraine appears to have successfully executed another strategic withdrawal that minimized casualties and prevented the encirclement of troops.

Russian forces are attempting to advance west from Popasna, fighting for control of Verkhnokamyanke, Spirne, and Berestove.

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group attempted to advance on Klynove but was unsuccessful in moving the line of conflict.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Avdiivka from Spartak. The attack was unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed what is alleged to be the largest Russian ammunition depot in the Donbas, located in Snizhne. The depot provides storage and logistics for artillery, mortars, Grad, and Smerch rockets and also houses Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) and S300 antiaircraft missiles.

Ukrainian forces attacked the airport in Melitopol two more times, firing more than 30 rockets from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Local reports claim the airport is “destroyed.”

The Russian armored train derailed near Melitopol due to partisan activity, was loaded with ammunition, and reportedly exploded. Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SOF) also destroyed the Melitopol-Tokmak railroad bridge in Liubymivka, severing the rail connection to the Kherson oblast.

Kherson – Ukraine again attacked the Russian-controlled airport at Chornobaivka, hitting additional ammunition storage east and within the airport compound. Russian forces fired a furious artillery barrage on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine is mounting offensives, firing artillery, and launching airstrikes across the entire line of conflict in Kherson. There was intense fighting in Olhyne, the last Russian-occupied settlement in the Vysokipillya salient.

Kharkiv – Russian forces fought positional battles in the contested settlements of Tsupivka and Prudyanka.

Izyum – Slovyansk – Russian forces continue to make piecemeal attacks in an attempt to advance on Slovyansk, attacking Mazanivka, Dolyna, and Bohorodychne. They were unsuccessful.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense will continue mop-up operations, but Russian forces have secured the Luhansk oblast after 130 days of war.
  2. Ukraine claims they were outnumbered 10:1 in Lysychansk, which would imply that the entire combat force in the city was only 2,000 to 2,500 defenders.
  3. Russian forces’ defensive capabilities in Kherson are increasingly degraded, and the destruction of the Melitopol-Tokmak railroad bridge in Liubymivka has significantly disrupted the main Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) into the Kherson oblast.
  4. Ukrainian forces are rapidly mastering the NATO-provided HIMARS systems and destroying critical infrastructure for the Russian military dozens of kilometers behind the line of conflict.
  5. It is yet to be seen if Ukraine will hold a defensive position in Siversk or fall back to the Slovyansk-Karmatorsk-Soledar-Bakhmut line.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for July 3, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,047 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

Severodonetsk – Lysychansk – Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from Lysychansk after the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and Pryvillia were captured. With the Lysychansk-Bakhmut T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) severed and the Sivesk-Lysychansk GLOC under pressure, The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided the risk of encirclement had become too great. Additionally, Russian forces unleashed the largest artillery barrage since the collapse of the Zolote-Hirske salient. Luhansk Regional Administrative and Military Head Serhiy Haidai confirmed the withdrawal.

Russian state media showed Russian and Chechen forces in the center of Lysychansk and the southern regions on the plateau. It is estimated that up to 10,000 civilians remain in the city once home to 95,000.

There weren’t indications of large numbers of Ukrainian troops being captured or the abandonment of significant quantities of heavy weapons.

Ukrainian forces fell back to preprepared defensive positions in Siversk. Due to the ongoing Ukrainian withdrawal, the renewed line of conflict is very difficult to define.

Russian forces attempted a reconnaissance in force advance into Berestove but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, Siversk, Serberianka, Hryhorivka, Bilhorivka [Donetsk], and Bilohorivka [Luhansk].

Bakhmut – Svitlodarsk – Southeast of Bakhmut, Russian forces shelled the electrical service transformer farm at Vesela Dolyna. Sentinel-2 L2A imagery showed a massive fire at the center of the facility.

Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – Russia-backed separatists of the Donetsk People’s Republic 1st Army attempted an advance on Novomykhalivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammunition depot in the city of Yasynuvata near Donetsk.

In the Russia-controlled port city of Berdyansk, salvage engineers raised the Large Landing Ship (LLS), Saratov, from the bottom of the harbor. The Saratov was sunk on March 24 during a Ukrainian cruise missile attack, damaging two additional LLS and severely damaging a civilian cargo ship.

Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian airbase in the occupied town of Melitopol with 12 rockets fired from NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), striking defensives and two logistic warehouses. Additionally, a freight train traveling between Crimea and Melitopol was attacked by insurgents. Insurgents also derailed a Russian armored train.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces shelled the Russian-controlled airport at Chornobaivka, destroying an ammunition depot. The settlement of Pervomaiske suffered intense shelling by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement of Ivanivka and Zarichne [Kherson] and are attacking Russian positions in Arkhanhelske on the east bank of the Inhulets River. Russian forces have suffered significant losses.

To replace equipment losses, the Russian Ministry of Defense is transferring 40 to 67 tanks from Zaporizhia to Kherson.

Mykolaiv – Up to 12 Russian Onyx cruise missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv. The missiles targeted the port and grain storage.

Dnipropetrovsk – A Russian cruise missile struck the city of Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, destroying a factory.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with Iskander-M Short Range Ballistic Missiles SRBM), with several strikes in the city and the suburbs of Cherkaska Lozova and Derhachi.

Izyum – Slovyansk – Russian forces made another ad hoc advance on Bohorodychne, which was unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are using HIMARS to interdict Russian GLOC into and south of Izyum, significantly impacting the ability to resupply and support Russian forces on the line of conflict. Ukrainian forces reestablished the wet crossing southeast of Chepil.

Odesa – Black Sea – A Russian Su-30 aircraft fired a Kh-31 air-to-sea cruise missile into the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, striking another hotel.

The Ukrainian air force bombed Snake Island’s remaining Russian military assets, destroying a Tornado Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and three other support vehicles on the pier.

Russian Federation – Missile debris from a failed Iskander-M launch or possibly from a Russian antiaircraft missile fell onto the city of Belgorod, Russia. Local authorities reported dozens of homes were damaged, and three civilians were killed. The Russian Ministry of Defense accused Ukraine of firing a Tochka-U missile armed with cluster munitions on Kursk, but later retracted the accusation and claimed it shot down three Ukrainian missiles.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense has put intense pressure on its commanders in Ukraine to complete the capture of the Luhansk oblast, and it is unlikely they will have an operational pause.
  2. Russia will continue to focus on securing the Luhansk Oblast at all costs.
  3. NATO-provided HIMARS is already having a significant impact on combat operations for Ukraine.
  4. Outside the Luhansk oblast, the war has a frozen front.
  5. Russian forces’ defensive capabilities in Kherson are increasingly degraded as they deploy 360-degree perimeter defenses in the settlements they still control.
  6. Supply interdiction west and northwest of Izyum is impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities toward Slovyansk.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 29, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,043 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

The situation in the Severodonetsk salient is deteriorating as Russian forces increase pressure on the Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communications (GLOC – aka supply line), including the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway and the Siversk-Lysychansk route. The pattern of massive social media-driven disinformation campaigns from Pro-Russian accounts that occurred in Chernihiv, Mariupol, Sumy, and Severodonetsk is occurring again with the battle to control Lysychansk.

Severodonetsk-Lysychansk – Russian forces have pushed north from Bila Hora and have likely reached School Number 12 in the southeastern Lysychansk lowlands. Fighting continues at the rubber factory and the gelatin plant. Ukrainian forces have held the gelatin plant for five days.

Russian forces have secured Vovchyoyanka and reached the quarry at the northern tip of the settlement. Russian forces have advanced west from Vovchoyanka and are fighting at the southeast corner of the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery but have not reached the T-1302 Highway GLOC.

There were reports, likely started by Igor Girkin, that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn entirely from Pryvillya and Russian forces had made a wet crossing at Kreminna. There is no information, videos, or pictures to support these claims. Given the continued Ukrainian resistance southwest, south, and southeast of Lysychansk, it is unlikely that a full-scale withdrawal has begun.

Russian forces crossed the T-1302 Highway west of Mykolaivka in an attempt to capture Spirne but were unsuccessful and pushed back to the original line of conflict.

Heavy shelling of the T-1302 Highway continued in Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk].

Bakhmut – Russian forces attempted to advance on Klynove, east of Bakhmut but were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Bakhmut as well as Travneve.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Novoluhansk and Travneve on June 28. Both settlements were previously coded as under Russian control. There is fighting for control of the power plant on the northern edge of the Vuhlehirske Reservoir.

South Donbas – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russian forces tried to recapture Pavilvka but were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were only artillery exchanges and skirmishes.

Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka north of Kharkiv city again but were unsuccessful.

Izyum – On the Izyum axis, Russian forces attacked Dovhalivka and Zalyman again. This does not represent a new offensive and is an attempt to distract and redirect Ukrainian military assets, which are interdicting the Russian M-03 GLOC through Vesele [Kharkiv 49°23’16.6″N 37°11’52.8″E]. Russian forces made piecemeal attacks on Mazanivka and Dolyna in an attempt to advance on Slovyansk. The understaffed units suffered heavy losses and were unsuccessful.

Odesa – Black Sea- Ukrainian forces “shelled” Snake Island, reporting that several Russian military assets, including a radar station and a Pansir antiaircraft system, were destroyed.

Russia continued to launch Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) and cruise missiles into Ukraine. Missile strikes hit Dnipro, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kremenchuk, and Kharkiv.

In all other regions in Ukraine, there was no change in territorial control and only positional battles.

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Russia-Ukraine War Update for June 28, 2022

[KYIV, Ukraine – MTN It has been 3,042 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.

The Russian Air Force fired two Kh-22 land-to-sea cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers at Kremenchuk, Poltava. Both missiles struck the Amstor Mall at 3:52 PM local time, with over 1,000 civilians inside. On Wednesday morning Ukrainian officials reported that 20 were dead, 59 were wounded, and 36 were still missing. Monday’s attack is the worst since Russia destroyed the railroad station in Kramatorsk on April 8 with cluster munitions delivered by Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM).

Lysychansk-Severodonetsk – Russian forces are holding a line that extends from Bila Hora to the southwestern corner of the rubber factory on the edge of Lysychansk. The line continues southwest to the gelatin factory, where fighting has been ongoing for four days.

Russian forces control most of Vovchoyarivka, with intense fighting continuing to control the settlement’s northern part. Russian forces have reached the southeastern edge of the abandoned Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery, which is adjacent to the T-1302 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line).

Bakhmut – Slovyansk – East of Bakhmut and north to the Popasna advance, Russian forces continue to try and take full control of the T-1302 Highway GLOC. Russian forces attempted to advance toward Klynove and Pokrovske but were unsuccessful. Russian forces likely reached the eastern edge of Klynove in heavy fighting but were pushed back to Midna Ruda. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Yakolivka but were unsuccessful.

Russian forces shelled Soledar, Bilohirivka [Donetsk], Berestove, Mykolaivka, Vesele [Dontesk, 48°44’38.5″N 38°08’56.5″E], and Spirne. Shelling of Berestove and Spirne was particularly fierce. Both settlements are west of the T-1302 Highway.

Two Russian ammunition depots south and east of Zymohirya [Luhansk] were attacked by NATO-provided High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) missiles. A coal mine was the closest target, 70 kilometers east of Bakhmut.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, there were indications that Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions in Semhirya, Dolomitne, and Myronivskyi.

South Donbas and Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, Russian forces attempted an offensive against Ukrainian forces in Shevchenko [Donetsk 47°43’45.5″N 37°08’29.4″E] and were unsuccessful. With reports of further advances, Ukrainian forces continue to hold recent territorial gains.

Kherson and Mykolaiv – In Kherson, the Ukrainian counteroffensive continued. Ukrainian troops advanced from Soldatske to the western edge of Myrolyubivka. Russian and Ukrainian forces continued intense fighting to control Stanislav, Kyselivka, and Snihurivka. The United States Department of Defense and Ukrainian officials have hinted that “several” settlements were liberated between June 25 – 26 in the Kherson Oblast but have requested that the details be temporarily withheld to support Operational Security (OPSEC).

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched an offensive to recapture Dementiivka, but they were unsuccessful. Skirmishes continued near Velyki Prokhody, Vesele [Kharkiv 50°10’26.3″N 36°31’59.5″E], and Rubizhne [Kharkiv]. Satellite data indicated that Ukrainian forces remain on the east bank of the Pechenihy Reservoir near Khotimlya.

Southeast of Chuhuiv, fighting continues along the M-03 and M-07 highways. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to request to honor OPSEC in this region. We will only share open-source intelligence in today’s report. Sattelite data indicated fighting in Russian-controlled Nova Hnylytsya.

Izyum – On the Izyum axis, Russian forces shelled Mospanove but made no advances on the settlement. Russian forces attacked Dovhalivka and Zalyman from Savyntsi, suffered significant losses, and were forced back. We have also been requested to honor OPSEC in this region and will only share information available through open-source intelligence.

Sattelite data indicated intense fighting north, northeast, and north of Spivakivka, almost to Prydonetske. Sattelite images also confirmed the destruction of the Russian 20th Combined Arms Army command post in Izyum and the adjacent fuel depot.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Mazanivka from Dovehenke and were unsuccessful. Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in Dolyna and Bohorodychne. Ukrainian artillery interdicted the GLOC from Oskil to Sosnove with artillery.

Other Key Developments – Kremlin-backed hacker group Killnet launched a widescale DDoS cyberattack on Lithuania, disabling key websites and computer systems. Killnet says they will continue to attack the Baltic nation until trade restrictions to Kalinigrad are lifted.

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