Monthly Archives: November 2020

National, Terra Firma

[Updated] Meandering Hurricane Eta targets Florida

UPDATE: Eta has weakened to a tropical storm again, with winds of 70 MPH. The center of Eta is 85 miles southwest of Tampa Florida, moving north at 10 MPH. Tropical Storm Warnings now extend from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, Florida.

Eta restrengthened to a Category I hurricane overnight and appeared to have picked a path. Packing winds of 75 MPH, Eta was located 145 miles south-southwest of Tampa and heading toward the big bend region of the western Florida coast. Overnight, Eta formed a well-developed eye, but wind shear and relatively dry air will make further strengthening difficult.

Since its formation in late October, Eta has impacted Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Cuba, and the United States. Last week, Eta slammed into Central America, delivering 140 MPH winds, 18 feet storm surge, flooding, mudslides, and misery. Over 150 deaths were reported across the region, with more people missing.

Forecasters have not declared hurricane watches or warnings, but they are expected later today. Tropical Storm Theta continued to move east in the Atlantic with 60 MPH winds and posed no threat to land. A tropical wave located southwest of the Dominican Republic was expected to form into a tropical depression. If that system reaches tropical storm strength, it would become the 30th named storm of 2020 and represent the first time three named systems were in the Atlantic basin this late in a hurricane season.

National, Terra Firma

Tropical Storm Theta shatters single season hurricane record

Tropical Storm Theta became the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, shattering all previous records going back to 1850. Located 795 miles southwest of the Azores with winds of 70 MPH, Theta is not a threat to land and forecasted to weaken over the next five days.

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been the most active in history, with 12 named storms making United States landfall so far. Late Sunday, Tropical Storm Eta passed over the Florida Keys, bringing torrential rains and flash floods. In addition to Theta and Eta, the National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the southern Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Eta is almost stationary off the western tip of Cuba. Forecasters currently believe that Eta will struggle to become a hurricane again while remaining a threat from Alabama to Florida.

Local, Terra Firma, Weather

Significant weather event likely on Friday the 13th

The remnants of Tropical Storm Atsani is charging across the Pacific Ocean, on a collision course with the Pacific Northwest. Although Atsani lost all tropical characteristics days ago, the energy and moisture it collected are expected to arrive Friday in a two-day weather event.

The challenge in forecasting wind storms in western Washington is that the center of circulation’s location determines our region’s impact. If the storm passes to our north, close to the southern tip of Vancouver Island in British Columbia, we get the brunt of a wind event. If the storm passes to our south, up the Columbia River basin, Oregon receives the brunt of the wind. An error in the forecasted path of just 50 miles is the difference between a significant wind event and what we like to call “a nothing burger.”

Typically the computer models aren’t in agreement on the “where,” which is the case with the Friday forecast. The GFS model, which hasn’t been the most accurate for our winter weather, forecasts a significant, possibly historic wind event, with the storm passing over Vancouver Island. The Euro model, which was stellar a few years ago but has lost some accuracy, predicts Oregon will receive the most impact.

It is too far out with landfall still 72 hours away to narrow down the track, but here is what we do know. Forecast models put central pressure at landfall between 973 and 983 millibars – that is significantly more intense than Tropical Storm Eta when it crossed the Florida Keys. Barometric pressure this low is typically associated with Category I and Category II hurricanes (our November wind storms have nothing related to the mechanics of a tropical system, even if they are often the remnants of tropical systems).

Wave height forecasts for Friday and Saturday are, in a word, alarming. Some computer models forecast heights of 45 feet off the Oregon coast, with some models predicting higher than 50 feet.

What should you know? For central Puget Sound, there is growing potential for a significant weather event on Friday and Saturday. More specifically to the eastside, the chances for power loss, tree, and property damage is increasing and require a close watch. Along the coast, damaging waves that will cause low area flooding, erosion, and large debris to wash ashore and shift are likely, with the where being the bigger question. The Cascades can expect wind and mountain snow, and a lot of it. The storm track will determine the snow level, but anyone planning to cross the passes this weekend should consider leaving a day early.

Opening the new SH-520 bridge to relieve wind and wave stress is no longer required, and the latest design also prevents waves from over-topping the railings. Also, with reduced traffic in general due to COVID-19, regional travel shouldn’t be too challenging during the evening commute.

The weather model we prefer? That model shows the storm passing to our north but at the lower end of the strength forecast. We will continue to update this growing situation.

Local, Weather

Skiers rejoice – snow is coming to the Cascades

A cold and wet weather pattern has moved into western Washington, bringing lowland rains and mountain snows. Monday night will see snow levels drop to 2000 feet, enough for the white stuff to fall at all the passes (and our ski areas) through Wednesday morning. All of the passes and ski areas can expect six inches of snow to accumulate. On Wednesday, there is a break before the snow machine turns on again, with snow levels rising to around 3,000 feet. That’s right on the line for a rain/snow mix at Snoqualmie.

For the lowlands, Monday night and Tuesday are looking wet, with a break on Wednesday, followed by two more wet days at the end of the week. Friday is looking windy, but it is still too far out to say if we will see Wind Advisories in the lowlands.

Studded tires became legal again on Washington roads on November 1 this year, and if you plan to cross the passes, you should have a survival kit and tire chains packed. We will continue to monitor the situation.

National

White shooting suspect captured alive after ambushing Wisconsin police

It should have been a routine traffic stop. On early Friday morning, a police officer from Delafield, Wisconsin, and another from Hartland, Wisconsin, stopped a suspect vehicle after a hit-and-run accident. Nathanael Benton, 23, ambushed both officers who were taken to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries. Benton, who is white, was then taken into custody alive and without incident in a nearby field. Police later discovered that he was wanted on an attempted murder warrant in Noth Dakota.

Fargo police put out an APB for Benton on November 2, 2020, after shooting a man in the head in Fargo. That person is also expected to recover.

A search of Benton’s social media footprint turned up racist ideation at the time of him completing home school. His social media footprint got quieter in the last few years.

Local

Prop 1 in Kirkland passes with overwhelming support

With 48,220 ballots tallied, Kirkland Proposition 1 is passing with overwhelming support. Over 71% of voters have approved the measure, while 28.6% voted against it. The levy will add $23.51 for every $100,000 of home value in the city of Kirkland, representing an increase of approximately $171 per household.

When ratified, the measure will enable Kirkland to hire 20 more firefighters, purchase additional PPE to support the department for COVID and other public health crises, provide upgrades to existing fire stations, and build a new station close to Evergreen Hospital. Most of Kirkland’s fire stations are decades old and several don’t meet regulations for seismic and safety standards.

The city of Kirkland was ground zero for COVID-19 in February 2020 with Kirkland Fire and Evergreen Hospital bearing the brunt of the initial outbreak. Despite a lack of federal leadership and information sharing, local EMS leaders made critical decisions in mid-February as emergency calls from Life Care Center of Kirkland increased.

Firefighters from Station 25 near Forbes Creek started donning PPE and taking other safety measures as dispatches to the skilled nursing and rehabilitation center increased for patients with “flu-like symptoms.” Kirkland fire made the decision independently out of concern for their crews and the community. In late February as the first deaths in Kirkland were reported, up to 30 firefighters and police officers were quarantined, straining resources.

The department’s action paid immediate dividends with only one firefighter becoming ill, and the department writing the playbook for first responders across the United States.

This measure represents the first city-wide proposal in 30 years to fund fire and EMS.

BIPOC, National

COVID-19 devastates the BIPOC community

Sprawling across Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, the 173,000 member Navajo Nation suffers from “Dikos Ntsaaígíí-19” – COVID-19. Over seven-percent of the Navajo have tested positive for COVID-19, with 591 deaths. If the Navajo Nation was an independent country, the mortality rate of 4.7% would be third-worst globally, behind Iran and Mexico.

Tribal officials called the outbreak out of control this week. In this sprawling desert region, where one-third of the population has no access to running water, officials declared a 56-hour curfew in an attempt to curb case growth. The curfew is on top of an existing daily curfew from 9 PM to 5 AM.

Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has been working with the Navajo and Pueblo Nations since April. In neighboring New Mexico, almost 50% of all COVID-19 deaths are Indigenous peoples who make up 10% of the state population. Reservations across the United States have reported a complete lack of support from the Bureau of Indian Affairs, the federal government, and state officials. In Washington state a request for PPE from the federal government resulted in the shipment of body bags.

In South Dakota, where governor Kirsti Noem, R, has refused to have a mask mandate and permitted events such as the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, Cheyenne River Sioux, and Oglala Sioux tribes established COVID-19 checkpoints to enter their reservations. Governor Noem sued in federal court to remove the checkpoints, but the courts supported tribal autonomy, and the checkpoints have persisted. Tribal leaders in South Dakota stated they had established the checkpoints to protect tribal members due to a lack of medical resources and PPE.

Inequality isn’t limited to Indigenous peoples. The respected medical journal The Lancet published a study on July 14, 2020, comparing the Bronx Montefiore Health System’s mortality rate before and after COVID-19. The study included over 505,000 patients in the system and concluded that the mortality rate of Blacks due to COVID was higher. Factors such as age and comorbidities could not explain the higher rate in the population.

Closer to home in Washington state, six percent of all COVID deaths are Black while making up four percent of the people. For Hispanics, the numbers are far worse, with 38% of state fatalities coming from the ethnic group, which makes up 13% of the population. COVID tore through Yakima County earlier this year, where state farmers fought against guidelines to protect farmworkers from the disease. County leaders took a strong anti-mask position, and the county sheriff refused to enforce regulations. When it was time for the early summer harvest in the agricultural county, officials had to fly patients to Seattle, Portland, and Spokane to relieve overloaded hospitals.

APM Research Labs has been compiling mortality statistics based on race for COVID since March, and it paints a grim picture. Only Asian Americans have a lower mortality rate for Coronavirus. For Black Americans, the mortality rate is double for whites. Despite the higher infection and mortality rates, the Kaiser Family Foundation concluded that minorities as a group were less likely to be tested for COVID-19, be sicker when tested, and require more treatment due to the delay in identifying patients. The study also stated about Black households, “they are more likely to be working in low-income jobs that cannot be done from home, to be living in larger households in densely populated areas, and to utilize public or shared modes of transportation.“

With the United States setting national and world records for the most positive tests in a day three days last week, the disparity is only getting worse. The IHME estimates that as many as 400,000 Americans could be dead from COVID by February 1, 2021, without drastic steps taken to lower infection rates. Back in Navajo County, Dikos Ntsaaígíí-19 may have impacted the national election. According to the Navajo Times, members of the nation voted in record numbers in Arizona, with 97% of the tribe voting for Joe Biden.

National, Terra Firma

Hurricane Eta sets sights on Florida for a one-two punch

Hurricane Eta, the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is set to become the 12th named storm to strike the United States on Monday. At 1:00 PM PST, Tropical Storm Eta was located about 225 miles south-southeast of Miami, with maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predict Eta will cross the Florida Keys at a minimal Category I hurricane.

Hurricane warnings extended across the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortuga, including Florida Bay. Additionally, the weather service announced Tropical Storm Warnings from the Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood, including Lake Okeechobee. After striking the Florida Keys, forecasters predict Eta will hit the Florida coast for a second time later this week.

Hurricane Eta battered Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras before reemerging in the Atlantic as a tropical depression. In Guatemala, government officials reported at least 150 people were dead or missing as devastating floods and mudslides tore through the Central American nation. Official news from Nicaragua, where state media has suppressed information, has been scant with reports of only three fatalities. Honduran officials have reported at least 23 deaths and expect the death toll to rises. The Mexican government said as many as 20 deaths and Costa Rica claimed two Eta related deaths caused by a mudslide.

2020 has been a historic hurricane season, tied for the most storms in a single Atlantic hurricane season and the most named storms to strike the United States in a single season. Eta will mark the 12th storm to make US landfall; a typical hurricane season has roughly two per year. In the Atlantic, forecasters are watching two more tropical waves, creating the potential for the 29th and 30th named storms.

You can follow Hurricane Eta at the NOAA website.

BIPOC, LGBTQIA, Local

Hundreds celebrate president-elect Biden on Capitol Hill

With a stiff breeze blowing on a mostly cloudy afternoon, hundreds gathered at 10th and East Pine, celebrating the presumptive election win of Joe Biden. Revelers danced in the street while popping open champagne bottles, waving Biden-Harris signs and Black Lives Matter and pride flag.

https://malcontentment.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/5mnthsAgo.mp4
five months ago spd was shooting rubber bullets and teargas at protesters, now there is a celebration.

Cars headed westbound on East Pine and stretched as far as the eye could see past the East Precinct, honking horns and waving at the crowd. Music played from a small sound system until a COVID-friendly mobile DJ arrived. About 30 minutes later, the Marshall Law Band came riding a trailer pulled by an SUV. As the sun broke through the clouds in the late afternoon, the band played a long set of music to a jubilant crowd.

[Best_Wordpress_Gallery id=”5″ gal_title=”Capitol Hill Biden Celebration”]

Not everyone was pleased with the events unfolding this afternoon. Several familiar faces from the CHOP/CHAZ era, which protesters considered police informants, glowered and harassed some people. A group of protesters in black bloc arrived and burned an American flag outside of the Black Lives Matter mural. These incidents were small and didn’t gain much attention from the people celebrating.

Joe Biden won the 2020 national election with 290 electoral votes currently assigned to him. The states of North Carolina remains a tossup, Alaska is not deep enough in their vote count to declare a winner, and Georgia is having an automatic recount.

Local, Weather

Sunny but cold weekend will give way to wet week

Puget Sound is head for a repeat of a couple of weeks ago after a soggy week that will give way to a more seasonable weekend.

Saturday: A perfect late fall day, partly sunny with a high of 44 – 48 in Kirkland-Woodinville-Bellevue depending on your location. Higher Hills like North Rose, and Finn Hill will be cooler while hot spots like downtown Bellevue and Totem Lake will reach the high 40s.

Saturday Night: Lows will dip to 32 to 35 under clear skies

Sunday: Bright sun with temperatures of 46 to 50 degrees but breezy, with a north wind up to 10 MPH

Sunday Night: Clear skies will give way by sunrise with lows 29 to 33

Monday: Clouding up with rain developing in the afternoon. Temperatures will be 45 to 47

Monday Night: Cold with periods of rain, temperature from 38 to 40 degrees and a south wind up to 10 MPH

The outlook for next week is pretty wet. The long-range forecast indicates significant rain is possible on Thursday and Friday, but too far to call accurately. Friday could include a windstorm event, but on a scale of 1 to 10, right now this is looking like a 2 or 3 – not a French Toast Emergency