Category Archives: Russia-Ukraine War

Information and stories about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War.

Russia continues its push west of Donetsk – August 6, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,081 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine.

Northeast Donetsk

The only military action in this region was limited to artillery exchanges with both Ukrainian and Russian forces targeting ground lines of communication (GLOC – supply lines) and working on holding troops in defensive positions.

Bakhmut

Terrorist forces of the Imperial Legion fighting for Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group supported by elements of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of the Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LNR) People’s Republics attempted to advance on Bakhmutske, Soledar, and Yakovlivka. They were unsuccessful at moving the line of conflict.

In the Bakhmut area, PMC Wagner attempted to advance on Bakhmut and Vershyna from Pokrovske. They were unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces destroyed at least one bridge that leads into Bakhmut, taking up defensive positions.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Travneve to Kodema to prevent encirclement and reinforce Ukrainian positions further north. PMC Wagner, supported by Chechen forces and LNR and DNR separatists, has collapsed the bulge.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

Russian forces continue to focus their resources and the largest attacks in Ukraine on Avdiivka and Pisky. Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR and the 2nd Army Corps of the LNR attempted to advance into both settlements with no success.

Russian forces attempted advances on Niu York and Krasnohorivka north of Avdiivka. Additionally, they attempted to advance on Avdiivka from Spartak and Donetsk – both advances were unsuccessful.

In Pisky, Russian and Ukrainian forces are trading control of the middle-third of the settlement, with Rusian forces advancing from Lozove and the recently captured Butivka Mine ventilation shaft compound.

Russian separatists attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka and Marinka from Oleksandrivka, but neither advance was successful.

South of Donetsk, Russian forces attempted to advance on Pavlivka from Kyrylivka – implying that Ukrainian forces have improved defensive lines near Yehorivka. Russian forces launched an assault on Prechystivka from Novomaiorske. Ukraine liberated Novomaiorske in late June, and the recent report indicates that Russian forces recaptured the village.

Ukrainian forces destroyed a large ammunition depot in Makiivka. Multiple videos on social media recorded secondary explosions and showed the facility had still burning at sunrise. Civilian homes were less than 500 meters from the site, with cooked-off ammunition launching in all directions.

Kharkiv

North of Kharkiv, Ukrainian and Russian forces fought positional battles near Vesele, Borshchova, and Pytomnsk. The front is frozen northwest, north, and northeast of the city, with both belligerents slowly drawing down offensive capabilities.

Kherson

Ukraine hit an ammunition depot in Tokmak, causing a large fire with secondary explosions. Operational Command South reported that ammunition depots in Berislav and Kherson were destroyed.

Ukraine also targeted the command posts of the 76th Airborne Assault Division and 49th Combined Arms Army.

Russian VDV forces supported by tanks attacked Ukrainian positions on the Inhulets River bridgehead at Lozove from Sukhyi Stavok but were unsuccessful.

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Izyum

Russian forces attempted to advance toward Bohorodychne with an ad hoc offensive from the woods east of the Siverskyi Donets River and were unsuccessful. Russain forces between Kopanky and Andriivka are in a salient and at moderate risk of encirclement.

Mykolaiv

A weekend curfew was announced in Mykolaiv city to support operations to arrest collaborators. Residents can still venture outside for activities such as dog walking but must carry their identification with them.

Zaporizhia

Energoatom claims that Russian forces launched a false flag attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, firing rockets from MLRS that landed near one of the reactor houses. It was reported that a nitrogen-oxygen station and the combined auxiliary building were badly damaged, but there were no casualties or release of radiation. Before the shelling, Russian Rosatom representatives hurriedly left the station.

Sumy

Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Region Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Seredyna-Buda, Esman, and Hlukhiv were shelled. There was one casualty.

Chernihiv

In Chernihiv, the settlements of Zaliznyi Mist and Hremyach were shelled by Russian forces over the international border. There wasn’t additional information on damage or casualties.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces continue to focus military resources to grind Ukrainian defenses west of Donetsk down using a scorched earth policy.
  2. The reduction in operational tempo is not an indication that Russian forces have exhausted their resources and is likely a 36 to 72-hour pause to reconstitute before increasing attacks west of Donetsk and near Bakhmut.
  3. The activation of the newly created 17th Tank Brigade by Ukraine is an indicator that offensive operations in Kherson will increase in the near future.

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Ukraine hangs on in Donetsk, advances in Izyum – August 5, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,080 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine.

Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces attempted to advance on Berestove and were unsuccessful. The Russian Ministry of Defense has drawn down troops out of Luhansk for redeployment to Kherson and Zaporizhia to prop up sagging defensive lines. Because of this, most ground combat operations have ended.

In Bilovodsk, Luhansk, an assassination attempt was made on Vitaly Kovalenko, the so-called “head” of the occupied Bilovodsk district, and his deputy, Valentina Hladkova. Hladkova was shot in the hip and has been hospitalized.

Bakhmut

Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakovlivka from Volodymyrivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Soledar from Stryapivka but did not make new territorial gains.

East of Bakhmut, terrorist forces of the Imperial Legion fighting for Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group reached the outer edges of Bakhmut from the center of Pokrovske but were pushed back.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Vershyna from Roty and were unsuccessful.

On August 3 in the Svitlodarsk bulge, terrorist forces of the Imperial Legion fighting for PMC Wagner Group captured Seimyhirya, and on August 4, they advanced on Kodema from Dolomitne and Seimyhirya.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

Russian forces continue to focus their resources and ground assaults on Avdiivka and Pisky. Russian forces furiously attacked Pisky from Lozove and Vesele and made marginal gains.

On August 3, Russian forces carpeted Marinka during the day and evening with artillery, rockets, and thermobaric weapons. Russian forces advanced into the settlement after the bombardment and were pushed back. On August 4, Russian forces attempted another direct assault on the settlement and were unsuccessful.

In Toretsk, Russian artillery struck a bus stop, killing eight, including three children.

In Russia-controlled Donetsk, the Donetsk People’s Republic accused Ukraine of shelling the funeral ceremony of Colonel Olga Kachura, who was considered one of the founders of the self-declared Republic and of the 1st Army Corps. On August 3, Kachura, who went by the call sign Korsa, was killed by artillery fire in Horlivka. Officials claim eight people were killed.

Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces attacked Russian positions in Vesele from Male Vesele. Ukrainian forces were unsuccessful.

Russian forces launched four missiles from Belgorod, Russia, on Kharkiv, which hit near the city center. There were reports of three injuries.

Chuhuiv was hit with artillery and rockets fired by MLRS on August 3 – 4. Shelling on the night of August 4 was the most intense the city has experienced since the start of the war.

Kherson

Ukraine hit an ammunition depot in Nova Mayachka, causing a large fire with secondary explosions.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Ukrainian positions on the Inhulets River bridgehead at Bilohirka and Lozove from Sukhyi Stavok and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces attacked Russian positions in Starosillya, destroying armored vehicles concealed in a barn. The stronghold has been a logistics center for advances on the Inhulets River bridgehead.

Ukrainian forces recaptured Lyubymivka on August 3, and Russian forces shelled the settlement on August 4.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is claiming the Russian 22nd Army Corps command post in Chornobaivka was destroyed in the August 2 HIMARS strike near the Kherson International Airport.

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Izyum

Russian forces continue to lose ground south of Izyum. Ukrainian forces liberated Dmytrivka and Dibrovne, including the ridges overlooking Sulyivka. Ukrainian forces took full control of Maznivka and are advancing on Dovhenke.

With both attempts failing, Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and Bohorodychne with ad hoc offensives. On August 3, Russian forces attempted an offensive on Husarivka, which also failed.

Mykolaiv

On August 3, Oleksandr Sienkevych, Mayor of Mykolaiv, reported a missile attack destroyed a grocery store and struck an equestrian training facility. There were no injuries, and no animals were hurt, but there was significant damage. There were reports of an additional attack late on August 4.

Zaporizhia

Zaporizhzhia was hit by four missiles late on August 4. Additional information was not available at the time the report was created.

On August 3 – 4, Russian forces continued to fire rockets using Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) at Nikopol. In less than a month, the city has been hit with more than 1,200 Smerch and Grad rockets launched by Russian forces from the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Dnipropetrovsk

Myrivske, northwest of Kryvyi Rih, was struck by an Xh-59 cruise missile. Houses were destroyed, but there were no injuries or deaths.

Sumy

Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor reported that Krasnopillya, Shalyhyne, and a rural area near Novoslobidski were shelled and hit with mortars. Additionally, there was a cross-border skirmish with machine gun fire. There were no injuries reported.

Chernihiv

The settlements of Zaliznyi Mist, Hay, Hremyach, and Mykhalchyna Sloboda were shelled by Russian forces over the international border.

Odesa

Three more grain ships sailed from Ukrainian ports late on Thursday Los Angeles time, bound for inspection in Turkey before heading to their final destination. Two left from the port of Chornomorsk and the third from Odesa. The Panamanian-flagged bulk carrier Navistar will sail to Ireland with 33,000 tonnes of corn. The other two vessels are heading to Great Britain and Turkey carrying 13,000 and 12,000 tonnes of corn.

Beyond Ukraine

On August 3, Ukrainian forces targeted a Russian ammunition convoy in civilian vehicles moving north of Ternova, across the Russian border. Several vehicles were destroyed.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces are focusing military resources to grind Ukrainian defenses west of Donetsk down using a scorched earth policy. Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold the defenses but continue to resist the onslaught
  2. We won’t label the territorial gains south of Izyum a counteroffensive; however, territorial gains are accelerating, and the front is getting broader.
  3. Our assessment on August 2 that Increased artillery fire south of Izyum was not a prelude to a renewed offensive was accurate.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russians secure critical Ukrainian defensive position – August 3, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 23 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,078 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Northeast Donetsk

On the Luhansk-Donetsk administrative border, Russian forces attempted an advance on Ivano-Darivka and were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut

Fighting intensified with Ukraine and Russia trading territorial gains. Russian forces advanced toward Yakovlivka from Volodymyrivka and were unsuccessful.

Russian forces were pushed out of Vershyna on August 1 and attempted to recapture the settlement by advancing from Roty. The attack was unsuccessful.

Russian forces also attempted to advance on Zaitseve and Pokrovske from Klynove and were unsuccessful in both directions. Russian forces made an advance on Bakhmut from the central part of Pokrovske but did not make new gains.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces had partial success advancing into Kodema from Vidrodzhenya. We have assessed that Seimhirya was captured by terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion and Private Military Company Wagner Group on August 2.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

West of Donetsk city, Russian forces have focused their resources and ground assaults on Avdiivka and Pisky. Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted to advance on Avdiivka from Mineralne and were unsuccessful.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) captured the Ukrainian stronghold at the Butivka mine ventilation shaft. The defensive position is south of Avdiivka and was an integral part of the defensive line west of Donetsk.

Kharkiv

Russian forces launched a reconnaissance in force group into Dementiivka and were unsuccessful. They launched a second advance on Dementiivka from Kochubeivka, which was also unsuccessful.

Russian forces launched an offensive from Ternova for the first time in almost two months, trying to advance on Bairak. They were unsuccessful.

Southeast of Kharkiv city, Chuhuiv was hit by multiple Russian missiles, killing one civilian.

Kherson

On the Inhulets River bridgehead, a small Russian group supported by two tanks attempted to advance on Bilohirka from Sukhyi Stavok and were unsuccessful.

The Russian base at Chornobaivka was shelled by Ukrainian artillery, causing a major fire with secondary explosions. The blast was so powerful it broke windows, and three magnetic anomaly stations detected the blast as far away as Bucharest, Romania.

Russian troops accidentally caused a major explosion at the Kalanchak railroad station in Myrne while unloading a train full of ammunition. The blast damaged the tracks severing the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) from Crimea. The connection is expected to be repaired over the next few days.

Russian combat engineers continue repairs on the Antonovskiy Bridge, with local officials announcing it will be reopened by next week. Russian forces also set up a second river crossing at the Antonovskiy Mist Railroad Bridge, moving military equipment into Kherson but at a reduced volume.

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Izyum

South of Izyum, Russian reconnaissance groups were identified near Dovhenke and Dolyna. Ukrainian forces did not engage with either group. We have coded Dovhenke as contested due to the increasing activity around the settlement. Otherwise, Russian forces increase the volume of artillery firing along the entire line of conflict southwest and south of Izyum.

Mykolaiv

Vitaly Kim, the Mykolaiv Regional State Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Russian missiles struck Mykolaiv city. The attack damaged a university dormitory and destroyed private homes. There was one injury reported.

Oleksandr Sienkevych, Mayor of Mykolaiv, reported that missiles hit the city in the early hours of August 3 local time, destroying a grocery store and striking an equestrian training center. Sienkevych reported no animals were injured or killed in the attack.

Zaporizhia

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has issued a dire warning over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southeastern Ukraine.

The situation there is getting more perilous every day, he said, urging Russia and Ukraine to allow inspectors to visit the complex to understand what steps need to be taken to prevent a nuclear accident. Russia has turned Europe’s largest nuclear power plant into a firebase and military barracks.

Dnipropetrovsk

Russian forces continue to fire rockets using Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) at Nikopol. The city has been under constant attack for three weeks, with over 1,100 rockets striking the region. The attacks have been coming from the Zaporizhzhia NPP on the opposite bank of the Dnipro River.

Sumy

Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor reported that Esman, Seredyna-Buda, and Khotin were shelled by mortar and artillery fire. There were no casualties or significant damage.

Lviv

A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile struck outside the settlement of Radekhiv in the Lviv oblast. Official and local reports reported indicated a Ukrainian antiaircraft site was destroyed. Two cruise missiles hit the Ukrainian military base in Chervonohrad, 13 kilometers from the Poland border.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces have returned to the military doctrine of using artillery to completely destroy an area until there is nothing left to defend and advance into the ruins west of Donetsk.
  2. In the next three weeks, many Russian military regulars will be coming to the end of their six-month contract in Ukraine, and because there has not been a formal declaration of war, they will be able to opt out of a new contract.
  3. Increased artillery fire south of Izyum is not a prelude to a renewed offensive and is meant to keep Ukrainian forces from advancing.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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A lot of fighting with little progress – August 2, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,077 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Northeast Donetsk – In northeast Donetsk, Russian forces attempted to advance on Ivano-Daryivka and were unsuccessful, withdrawing through the Spirne no man’s land.

Bakhmut – In the Bakhmut area, Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakovlivka using reconnaissance in force. They were unsuccessful and retreated after suffering losses. There were additional attempted advances on Soledar and Bakhmut. Both attempts were unsuccessful. Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to fight for control of the northern half of Pokrovske.

Terrorists with the Imperial Legion and Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group temporarily captured Vershyna with the support of Russian artillery and Russia-backed separatists. The force reached Zaitseve but was pushed back into Vershyna.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces attempted to advance on Kodema and Travneve but were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – The offensive west of Donetsk city has become more focused, with Russian forces not making any additional gains in the last 36 to 48 hours. Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted to advance on Avdiivka and Pisky but made no additional territorial gains. They remain on the southern edge of Avdiivka and to the second street in southeast Pisky.

Russian forces attempted to advance further into Marinka but were unsuccessful and withdrew.

A reconnaissance group tried to advance on Novopil on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, fired on Ukrainian positions, and was neutralized.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched a reconnaissance in force group into Dementiivka and were unsuccessful.

Southeast of Kharkiv city, Chuhuiv was hit by at least one Russian missile, causing significant damage to a factory complex.

Kherson – In Kherson, Operational Command South reported that Russian forces tried to advance on Andriivka with a platoon-size force and were unsuccessful. Russian forces suffered heavy losses in the failed advance. Operational Command South also reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Trudloiubivka with a platoon-size force and suffered heavy losses. Based on this information, Lyubymivka is under Russian control.

A video released by Ukraine showed a loitering munition striking a group of Russian soldiers dug in to the southwest of Soldataske. Satellite images showed that Russian forces had dug trenches and built pillboxes for tanks southwest of Pravdyne. Based on this new information, Myrne, Myrolyubivka, Pravdyne, and Soldatske are under Russian control.

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Izyum – South of Izyum, a Russian reconnaissance group was discovered in the Mazanivka area and neutralized by Ukrainian forces. Neither belligerent reported additional fighting anywhere else on the axis.

Mykolaiv – Russian missiles struck Mykolaiv causing significant damage to a hospital, destroying the ambulance bay, and damaging a new trauma center.

Dnipropetrovsk – Russian forces struck the Zelenodol Power Plant with Smerch rockets fired MLRS destroying two buildings. Additionally, the Shyrokivska and Pokrovska districts of Kryvyi Rih were hit by rockets fired from MLRS. There were no casualties in the attack.

Russian forces targeted railroad infrastructure in Hrushivka, damaging the tracks. This attack was likely made to interdict equipment and personnel massing for the Kherson counteroffensive.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Esman, Bilopillia, and Khotin were shelled by mortar and artillery fire. There were no details on casualties or damage.

Chernihiv – The General Staff reported Senkivka and Lypkivka in the Chernihiv oblast were shelled. There weren’t any additional details.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces have reached a culmination point in northeast Donetsk and the Izyum axis and won’t be able to restore offensive operations without adding significant resources.
  2. Russian forces have ended attempts to advance from Izyum on Slovyansk and have transferred significant resources to Donetsk and Zaporizhia.
  3. Ukraine’s starting point for a Kherson counteroffensive is not as robust as it appeared a couple of weeks ago.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russians make little progress – August 1, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,076 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Northeast Donetsk – A Russian reconnaissance group probed Ukrainian positions in the Serebrianka area in the direction of Siversk. The unit was destroyed.

Bakhmut – Fighting continues in Stryapivka, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Soledar. Fighting has also continued in Pokrovske. We maintain the northern half of the settlement is a no man’s land with neither belligerent able to hold control of the area.

Fighting continues in the Svitlodarsk bulge, where Russian forces did not make additional progress in Vershyna, Semyhirya, or Travneve.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Fighting continued west of Donetsk along a broad front, including Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. Russian forces made no forward progress after achieving gains on July 30 and small gains in Pisky on the morning of July 31.

There were reports that Ukrainian forces had launched a limited counteroffensive south of Hulyaipole last week, and fresh reports today that advances toward Polohy were made.

There were reports of a large explosion at the airbase northwest of Melitopol. The General Staff did not report they made a HIMARS strike at the Russian-controlled airfield.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces hit a large Russian ammunition depot using rockets fired by High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in the settlement of Skadovsk. Residents reported that Russian troops had been bringing large quantities of the ammunition “for days” into the area.

An ammunition depot was hit in Russian-controlled Beryslav, also producing a large fire.

In Kakhovka, Insurgents destroyed the car of Russia-collaborator Vitaliy Efimenko. The vehicle he was driving was armored, with Efimenko suffering injuries in the attack.

In Kherson, Russian troops have dug trenches and defensive positions on the north bank of the Dnipro River at the entrance of the disabled Antonovskiy Bridge. Russian forces continue to mix civilian and military traffic on the military-operated ferry. Combat engineers have started repairs on the deck of the bridge.

At the Nova Kakhovka Dam, the railroad tracks that cross the spillway have been destroyed. The bridge has received a temporary repair using steel plates to cover the damaged area. The road is operational but reduced to a single lane.

There are reports that Oleksandrivka [Kherson] is under Russian control again.

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Izyum – Russian forces launched an unsuccessful offensive on Husarivka. There continues to be an increase in activity northwest of Izyum along the Siverski Donets River.

Odesa – Two missiles were fired into the Odesa oblast, landing in a sparsely populated area near a quarry. The strike caused a brush fire, but there wasn’t any additional information on damage or casualties.

The first boat carrying Ukrainian grain departed from an Odesa area port. The ship is carrying a load of corn that will arrive in Lebanon. The Ukrainian and Russian government declared the departure as a sign of progress.

Sevastopol – Russian authorities are now claiming the attack on the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol was a locally launched attack using modified consumer drones.

Daily Assessment

  1. The number of areas with an active insurgency in Ukraine is expanding with increasing attacks and assassination attempts in Russian-occupied territory.
  2. A deficit in trained light infantry, disruption of logistics, and the continued destruction of ammunition depots are impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities.
  3. Russian troop movements indicate that offensive operations toward Bakhmut and Donetsk are being prioritized while defensive operations in Kherson and Zaporizhia are being reinforced.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Mykolaiv shattered in missile attack – July 31, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,075 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance toward Siversk from any direction. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported fighting in Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, or Berestove. A small Russian reconnaissance group was discovered in the area of Serebryanka and neutralized.

Bakhmut – Russian forces are attempting to gain full control of Pokrovske and fighting continued. The northern half of the settlement has turned into a no man’s land where control is constantly shifting.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces continue to work on collapsing the pocket. The settlement of Semyhirya was attacked from three sides, with Russian forces advancing to the eastern edge of the town. Russian forces attempted to advance on Zaitseve and Travneve and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) continue to attempt to advance on Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Opytne, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. The General Staff reported that Russian forces had made some gains in Avdiivka but were non-specific. Russian sources had reported gains on July 30.

Russian forces made territorial gains north of Krasnohorivka, crossing the H-20 highway and reaching the railroad spur line. Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack from Opytne toward Spartak and successfully drove back the Russian advance.

Russian forces withdrew from the settlements of Verkhnii Tokmak and Chernihivka in Zaporizhia after their positions were shelled. The Ukrainian General Staff reports the roads have been mined. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims this is part of a planned troop rotation.

Kherson – In Kherson, the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridge was attacked for a second time and is likely unusable through the rest of the war. The attack hit the bridge at the abutment, breaking the girders that connect the bridge girders and smashing the top deck.

Operational Command South reported that the Ukrainian air force flew multiple sorties on the settlement of Russian-controlled Beryslav and destroyed two ammunition depots.

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Mykolaiv – Oleksandr Sienkevych, the Mayor of Mykolaiv, reported the city experienced “the strongest ever” missile and rocket attack of the war. The city was hit with at least 40 missiles and rockets fired by multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Oleksii Vadaturskyi, a Hero of Ukraine and the owner of the major grain trading company Nibulon, and his wife were killed when a rocket struck their house. Vadaturskyi was 74.

Zaporizhia – The Nikopolskyi District of Zaporizhzhia was struck by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). One person was injured in the attack, which knocked out water and natural gas service.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv, neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv as the front remained frozen. The Nemyshlianskyi District in Kharkiv city was hit by a missile overnight.

Izyum – Russian forces increased ground combat activity after an extended lull on the axis. A Russian reconnaissance unit moved along the line of conflict between Nova Husarivka and Husarivka but was repelled. Another recon group tried to scout Ukrainian positions in Dolyna but was unsuccessful, and a Russian advance into Dmytrivka failed.

The General Staff reported that Ukrainian positions “near” Andriivka [Kharkiv] were shelled. This information indicates that marginal gains have been made from the west, and we now consider the settlement contested. In Svatove, 65 kilometers east-northeast of Izyum, insurgents destroyed switching and control boxes for the railroad lines.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor reported that Velyka Pysarivka, Bilopillya, and Seredyna-Buda were shelled by mortar and artillery fire.

Odessa – A pilot boat hit an improvised explosive device at the mouth of the Bystroye Canal, causing significant damage. The vessel lost power and drifted out of the shipping canal but did not sink. The crew was rescued, but the canal used for the transit of Ukrainian grain was closed.

A Russian missile attack on the Odesa oblast hit a mine at a quarry. The specific location was not reported at press time.

Sevastopol – The Russian state media news agency TASS reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to attack the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Russian-occupied Sevastopol. According to mayor Mikhail Razvozzhaev, five people were injured in the attack. Area officials canceled Navy Day festivities and advised all persons to stay home.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces are attempting broad but ineffective offensive operations to spread Ukrainian military resources and attempt to force a delay in pending larger counteroffensives.
  2. Increased shelling and reconnaissance in the Chepil region of the Izyum axis likely is not a precursor to a larger offensive in this direction, given Russian failures at contested water crossings.
  3. Russian forces continue to lose ground south of Izyum, reinforcing previous assessments that Russian combat power has reached a culmination point on this axis.

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Anatomy of a botched false flag attack at Detention Camp 52

Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this story referenced the converted warehouse where POWs from the Azov Battalion were being kept in the northeast corner – that should have been northwest. Thank you for your understanding.

[UKRAINE] – (MTN) – On July 28, the self-declared leaders of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic accused Ukraine of attacking the Olenivka Penal Colony, located 16 kilometers from the line of conflict. Over the span of 12 hours, Russian leaders, Russian state media, and unaffiliated pro-Russian journalists shared horrifying pictures, painting the Ukrainian armed forces as the executions of their people. The evidence they showed the world and their own casualty reports painted a different picture. One that potentially and accidentally documented in vivid detail the worst war crime against POWs in Europe since the Kosovo War in 1998.

The history of the Detention Camp 52

The dark history of Olenivka started in 2014 when the camp, situated in wheat fields and rolling hills just west of the village of Molodizhne, became a filtration camp for Crimean Tartars after the Russian occupation of the Crimea Peninsula. A 2015 United States Department of State annual report on Human Rights in Ukraine documented extrajudicial imprisonment and justice, torture, and executions. Conditions in the colony were squalid where disease ran rampant, and potable water was scarce.

After the Russia-Ukraine War started in February, Detention Camp 52, as it is officially known, took on a new role as a filtration camp for Ukrainian citizens in captured territory. During the siege of Mariupol, people who tried to leave the city went through a filtration process in the towns of Manush and Bezimenne. Many of those who were taken away for additional filtration ended up in Olenivka.

Women who went through filtration and were released reported being held in concentration camp conditions. They were held in areas so cramped they had to sleep sitting or, worse, in shifts. There was little heat, no blankets, and no beds. Disease was rampant, food was scarce, and drinking water was withheld, sometimes for more than a day. Hygiene products were barely provided, and female hygiene products were not to be found.

The world got its first look inside Olenivka in April when Russian state media and Pro-Russian social media accounts circulated pictures of alleged Ukrainian POWs from Mariupol. Our team analyzed and geolocated the videos. The video wasn’t recorded in Mariupol – it was recorded in Olenivka.

Photo credit – Russian State Media – a still image from a video released on April 14 shows alleged Ukrainian POWs from Mariupol. Russian state media claimed the video was recorded in Mariupol but in the Olenivka Penal Colony.

Editor’s Note: We have elected not to blur the faces of these prisoners in the hope that the continued sharing of their faces and identities can help keep them alive.

An analysis of the video showed only a few men in military uniforms moved to the front while the rest wore civilian clothing. Some of the men didn’t wear the uniforms of Ukraine but of Russian separatist militias. Most of the men did not resemble the numerous pictures from Russian state media and dark corners of Telegram showing dead Ukrainian soldiers who were mostly younger and more fit than their Russian conscript counterparts.

Photo Credit – Google Maps – satellite image of Olenivka Penal Colony – 47°49’38.9″N 37°42’41.4″E

The penal colony is easily found on a map. The prison is double-walled and covers over 114,000 square meters. The perimeter is 1.5 kilometers with buildings for administration, guards, and worse surrounding the facility. In the northwest region, the warehouse that was partially converted into housing for prisoners of the Azov Battalion was still unused and had holes in its roof at the time of the Google satellite image.

From filtration camp to POW colony

On May 15, almost three months after the siege of Mariupol began and three weeks after Russia had declared victory within the port city, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that a deal had been reached that would permit the safe surrender of the Ukrainian forces remaining inside the Azovstal Metallurgical Factory.

Confusion spread through the news channels as Pro-Russian social media accounts spread disinformation, and officials remained silent. Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine, Anna Malyar, released a brief statement in the morning saying, “Thanks to the defenders of Mariupol, Ukraine gained critically important time. They fulfilled all their tasks. But it is impossible to unblock Azovstal by military means.”

Initially, the deal negotiated through United Nations and Red Cross intermediaries appeared to be a win for Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine found a way out for up to 2,200 marines, territorial guards, foreign volunteers, and local police. Russia was able to end its siege without having to storm the fortress that was Azovstal. It would take 7,000 to 10,000 troops to defeat the 2,200 remaining defenders, resulting in heavy losses. Russia’s offensive in Luhansk was bogged down, and they needed a way out.

On May 16, the first 264 Ukrainian troops left Azovstal and into Russian captivity. Among them were 53 seriously wounded soldiers that would face death without care from a hospital. Reporters from Russian state media and western media documented the evacuation and followed the convoy of hospital buses to Bezimenne. The other 211 soldiers faced an uncertain future as a convoy of five buses headed northeast to Olenivka.

On May 16, we wrote in our Situation Report, “The soldiers were likely taken to the infamous detention camp 52, between Olenivka and Molodizhne.” Video released by Russian state media on May 17, showed the convoy of busses arriving in the morning hours at the filtration center turned POW camp.

The deal that was brokered between Russia and Ukraine through the United Nations and Red Cross would facilitate a prisoner of war transfer. The Red Cross would be able to document the information on each prisoner, notify their family members, be a conduit of communication, and would monitor their care and treatment.

As the last of as many as 2,200 remaining soldiers, foreign volunteers, and police left the bunkers of Azovstal, the deal was already falling apart.

A history of war crimes

There were already rumors and whispers about the conditions within Detention Camp 52 as Mariupol POWs streamed in. The Red Cross never received its promised access, and multiple requests to inspect Olenivka and the prisoners were denied. Officials weren’t even permitted to document all of the prisoners that were removed from Azovstal, with a large discrepancy between the numbers claimed by the Russian Ministry of Defense and human rights observers.

Before the group from Mariupol arrived, the stories were consistent for the few who could leave the walls. Men taken to Olenivka fell into three groups.

For those found to be part of the military, the government, or had a prior history with the military or as a government employee, beatings, torture, and disappearances awaited. A release could be found through forced conscription for able-bodied men from 18 to 65 with no prior military or government connections and no pro-Ukrainian tattoos or ideation on digital devices. Those that refused faced deprivation, beatings, and torture until they disappeared or joined the Donetsk People’s Republic militia as forced conscripts. For the rest, slave labor in dangerous conditions awaited while living in squalid conditions without enough food and limited access to clean drinking water. The Red Cross and United Nations brokered a deal that committed POWs to concentration camp conditions.

On June 29, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that a prisoner swap had been arranged, and 144 POWs held at Olenivka were being exchanged for 144 Russian POWs. Among those released were 95 defenders from Azovstal and 43 members of the Azov Battalion. Pro-Russian social media erupted with outrage. Outside of the bots, troll farms, and the consumers of their social media content, hope emerged for more swaps on both sides. Despite the issues, it seemed possible that civility would prevail and that the stories were exaggerations. The hope was short-lived.

Photo credit – Ukrainian Ministry of Defense – former Ukrainian POWs await transport back to Ukraine during a June 29, 2022 prisoner exchange

Many of those released were in poor health and were still healing from wounds now six weeks old. Some had to be taken away in ambulances. The Ukrainian government said that those released were getting the medical and psychological care they needed and asked for respect and privacy. Soon after their release, new whispers emerged within the medical community.

Beginning on July 8, our e-mail and social media inboxes became flooded with requests to validate reports that many of the soldiers released on June 29 had been castrated. On July 10, we made a public response that in order to confirm the reports, we would require first-person accounts from Ukraine with the cooperation of doctors and former POWs willing to go on the record. We would need access to medical records and permission from the Ukrainian government. We would need assistance and support from individuals trained to interview victims of torture and former prisoners in an ethical and respectful way.

We started working through our network to make that happen and planning a trip in late September or early October. On July 27, we received our forms from the Ukrainian government to get our press credentials. We wouldn’t need them. Hours later, the world had all the evidence it needed.

Photo credit – left – Russian state media – right – PMC Wagner Group – on the left is the person accused of torturing and executing a Ukrainian POW – on the right is a still image of the torture where the POW was beaten, castrated, mutilated, and executed

On July 28, a disturbing video emerged of a bound Ukrainian POW being castrated with a box cutter and then stomped on by a soldier in the Chechen Ahmat Unit, possibly in Severodoentsk, sometime in June. The POW was bound and restrained by multiple mercenaries and made blood-curdling screams as he was hacked for more than 45 seconds in the horrific video. After severing the genitals, the mercenary holds it up to the camera and tosses it on the ground by the man’s head. The video started circulating on Pro-Russian Telegram channels before spilling over to Twitter, YouTube, and others. The video has been deemed authentic, and the perpetrator in the video has been identified. A few hours later, a second part of the video emerged. The Ukrainian POW, who was likely already fatally wounded from his torture, was shot in the head at point-blank range.

The whispers of castration weren’t just rumors. They were unthinkably true.

A false flag to clean up a big mess

During the week of July 25, the leaders of Detention Camp 52 moved up to 200 members of the Azovstal Batallion to their own quarters. The area was walled off from the larger warehouse. It was a single room with a high ceiling and a corrugated metal roof. The building was brick and cinderblock construction.

PMC Wagner Group had at least one major problem, and possibly two. A squad recorded themselves torturing and executing a Ukrainian POW. The participants in the war crime wore surgical gloves, and the leader of the atrocity had a box cutter. In less than two minutes, they coordinated and moved in a way that indicated this was not the first time this had been done.

Worse, he was almost instantly identified because of his distinct clothing and the perpetrator appearing in earlier Russian state news reports, revealing distinguishing characteristics. Within 24 hours, the video had been validated by multiple sources, including our own team. The United Nations, European Union, and government officials condemned the action labeling it a war crime and a terrorist act.

Within the walls of Olenivka were there other prisoners who had been castrated, but instead of their testicles and penis removed to the prostate gland, only had their testicles cut off? The world will likely never know.

Hours after an undetermined explosion in the new barracks and Russian accusations of it being a HIMARS strike, the Ukrainian Directorate of Intelligence accused PMC Wagner Group of destroying the building. Local officials in Donetsk reported that 47 POWs had been killed and up to 130 wounded on July 28. Ukrainian intelligence claimed that the order to destroy the building came directly from Yevheny Prigozhin, the head of PMC Wagner Group.

There were reports that inspectors from the Russian Ministry of Defense were coming on September 1 to check on the conditions on Olenivka and do an audit of funds given to Wagner Group to expand the strained facilities.

In a statement on Telegram, Ukrainian Intelligence wrote, “The explosions in Olenivka are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism by the occupying forces side. According to the available information, they were carried out by mercenaries from the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) under the personal command of the nominal owner of the specified PMC, Yevheny Prigozhin.”

As the Kremlin and leaders of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic tried to turn the horror into a public relations coup, likely in an attempt to cripple western sanctions and arms support, the story quickly disintegrated. Not a single person with the Russian military, separatist militias, terrorists from the Imperial Legion, PMC Wagner Group, Chechen territorial guard, local territorial guard, or area police were injured or killed in the attack. No camp administrators or support staff were killed or wounded. The building, which held up to 200 POWs, was void of any guards or other authorities.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with Ukrainian heads of staff and the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner of Human Rights regarding the terrorist attack in Olenivka, which was deliberately staged by Russian occupation forces. The Red Cross submitted a formal request to inspect the site and conduct an investigation.

The European Union condemned the incident, with EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell stating Russia’s actions constitute “severe breaches of the Geneva conventions and their Additional protocol and amount to war crimes.”

The Red Cross, which was supposed to have unfettered access as part of the May agreement, submitted a formal request to inspect the site and conduct an investigation. In a later statement, the Red Cross said it would conduct a full investigation if “all parties” would agree.

The evidence doesn’t support there was a rocket attack

Ukrainian officials have known about Olenivka since 2014. The camp, 16 kilometers from the line of conflict, has never been shelled since Russia annexed Crimea and separatists started fighting in February 2014. The settlements around the camp have also never come under artillery or rocket fire, nor have ever been bombed or attacked by aircraft. Our research team was aware of Detention Camp 52 by early March and was working on documenting and validating ongoing abuse claims.

We spoke with a former Gebirgspionier with the German Bundeswehr with explosives experience for their evaluation.

“It’s impossible that a HIMARS fired M30 or M31 warhead was used in the strike on the POW camp. No usual shrapnel pattern on the walls; they are almost virgin. Even the bodies don’t show shrapnel wounds but typical blast injuries. The roof is almost intact, which is near impossible for the corrugated metal roof material. The roof would have been blown almost entirely.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage and charred bodies still inside the Olenivka Penal Colony

The bunk beds would have been expected to fall over and be torn apart, at least in the center of the blast radius. However, the burn marks on the walls and the spalling in their center remind me of directional charges (like one or two MON-90 hanging from or laying on the metal roof) attached to a gasoline canister. In my assessment, this caused the spalling on the wall: an impact of that metal canister where [an accelerant] splashed and formed those significant brand markings, as you would expect when searching a burned house for the source of a fire.”

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage and charred bodies still inside the Olenivka Penal Colony

Photos from the exterior also do not support the claim of a rocket attack. The building has no shrapnel damage. The corrugated metal roof has been blown outward, not smashed down and blasted away. The blast damage and fire damage are all from the interior. Metal bars and window frames are not blown out but show damage consistent with an interior building fire.

The section of the building directly adjacent to where the Azovstal prisoners were held is also undamaged, with no blast damage through the concrete block wall.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage to the outside of the Olenivka Penal Colony, which is inconsistent with a rocket, missile, or artillery attack

But the most damning evidence came from Russian state media and PMC Wagner Group. On July 27, a video circulated of a school in Izyum that had been converted into a military base after it had been attacked with rockets fired by HIMARS. That building was more soundly constructed than the Olenivka warehouse and had multiple interior rooms that would have contained the blast. The damage to the building doesn’t match the impact on the penal colony. The roof has been smashed from the top and blown out by the detonation. The building has been blown apart, with debris strewn in multiple directions. Whole window frames were blown out and lay meters away.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 27 still image from a video showing a school converted to a military base by PMC Wagner Group in Izyum after it was destroyed in a HIMARS strike

In another clumsy attempt to claim Ukraine committed a war crime by destroying a school, Wagner Group’s drone video showed trenches, tank scrapes, and firing positions on the school grounds and, from at least one point, still partially intact after the strike. The video also provided clear evidence of what a HIMARS strike looks like and the damage it causes.

Epilogue

Ultimately we cannot arbitrate if this was an interior or exterior explosion. That will have to be left to the experts and investigators. It is unlikely that third-party investigators will be allowed onto the scene until it was been sanitized and prepared more, if ever.

Was the building destroyed to cover up torture and mutilation? Was the explosion rigged to mass execute Azov Battalion members while painting Ukraine as the perpetrators to fracture western support? Was PMC Wagner Group covering up more war crimes and potential corruption?

One day, we may know. In war, the victor writes the history.

Night of the HIMARS – July 30, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,074 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance from the administrative borders of Luhansk.

Ukrainian forces destroyed ammunition depots in Pervomaisk and Bryanka in separate strikes using rockets fired by High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). In Bryanka, a base for terrorist members of the Imperial Legion working with Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group was heavily damaged.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces made a reconnaissance in force advance toward Verkhnotoretske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery, but they were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut – Russian forces gained ground in Pokrovske, moving northwest and closer to Bakhmut. In the Svitlodark Bulge, Russian forces attempted to advance on Vershyna and Semyhirya. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion working with PMC Wagner Group reached the eastern boundary of Semyhirya. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance from the area of Travneve in two directions but did not gain new territory.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces have started a broad offensive west of Donetsk, attacking Ukrainian positions. Some marginal gains have been made.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) continue to attempt to advance on Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Opytne, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. Fighting continued in Marinka, with Russian forces repulsed.

Rockets fired by HIMARS destroyed ammunition depots in Alchevsk, Mospyne, and Yasynuvata.

In Zaporizhia, rockets hit a hotel complex used as barracks for Russian troops in Enerhodar. An ammunition cache cooked off, causing a larger fire. HIMARS rocket fire also destroyed a fuel depot in Kamyanka-Dniprovska.

Kherson – In Kherson, Ukrainian forces are setting conditions to advance on Bruskynske from the Inhulets River bridgehead established in Lozove.

There are unconfirmed reports that the situation for Russian forces in Vysokopillya and those remaining in part of Arkhanhelske is becoming increasingly difficult. Both settlements are cut off from their Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply line), and the remaining forces are technically encircled.

Rockets fired by HIMARS struck two locations in Nova Kakhovka. A big box hardware store holding a large ammunition depot was hit, producing a massive secondary explosion. A second area to the east was also hit. Additionally, an ammunition depot in Semenivka was targeted and destroyed in a rocket attack.

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Mykolaiv – Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground capacity struck a busy bus stop, killing five, hospitalizing 12, wounding dozens, and killing some dogs that people were walking at the time of the attack

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv. Russian forces targeted the Kharkiv University of Agricultural Studies in a missile attack using S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a surface-to-surface capacity. The school was heavily damaged.

Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles also target a meat processing plant in Bohodukhiv, destroying the facility.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance into Brazhivka and Dmytrivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also attempted to conduct reconnaissance in Schurivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed another Russian battery of artillery north of Izyum. The artillery unit was clustered in the tree line south of Sukha Kamyanka and suffered heavy losses by drone-directed counterbattery.

On July 27, rockets fired by HIMARS destroyed a base for the terrorist organization Imperial Legion working for PMC Wagner Group in Izyum. Video shot by Russian State Media and PMC Wagner Group tried to portray the strike as an attack against a grade school. The video released by Wagner showed the building was sandbagged with firing positions and had trenches and defensive positions dug around it.

Chernihiv – Operational Command North reported the settlement of Semeniv on the Russian border was shelled, with the town administration building damaged. There were no casualties reported.

Daily Assessment

  1. Private Military Company Wagner Group likely committed a war crime and violated the Geneva Convention for the trust and care of prisoners of war.
  2. Ukraine continues to target ammunition depots, troop concentrations, and critical transportation infrastructure with HIMARS, crippling Russia’s ability to wage war.
  3. Russian forces have initiated or are setting conditions for a significant offensive west of Donetsk but likely do not have the combat power to be successful.

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PMC Wagner Group tortures Ukrainian POW in shocking video – July 29, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,073 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. Here is your daily Russia-Ukraine War summary

Luhansk – A disturbing video emerged of a bound Ukrainian POW being castrated with a box cutter and then stomped on by a terrorist with the PMC Wagner Group in Severodoentsk sometime in June. The POW was bound and restrained by multiple mercenaries and made blood-curdling screams as he was hacked for more than 45 seconds in the horrific video. After severing the genitals, the mercenary holds it up to the camera and tosses it on the ground by the man’s head. The video was found on the cellphone of a dead soldier, analyzed by Ukrainian intelligence, and leaked to social media. The video has been deemed authentic, and the perpetrator in the video has been identified.

Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets released a statement that his office was preparing a message to the United Nations Committee Against Torture.  “As the Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament] Commissioner for Human Rights, I have applied to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to verify the facts and to record a war crime and a violation of the norms of the Geneva Convention,” he wrote in a statement.

“We will hold consultations with the International Committee of the Red Cross again to increase the pressure by the countries from around the world on the Russian side to fulfill its obligations regarding prisoners of war and to allow access of ICRC representatives to the POW to assess their health and conditions of detention.”

Additionally, proceedings will be entered under Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine against the identified individual who committed the torture.

Russian forces did not attempt to advance from the administrative borders of Luhansk, instead relying on artillery, indirect fire from tanks, and airstrikes in northeast Donetsk oblast.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted reconnaissance to determine the position and strength of Ukrainian forces in Berestove and Nahime. Neither advance was successful.

Bakhmut – Near Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakovlivka and were unsuccessful. East of Soledar, fighting continued near the town. Russian forces attempted to advance on Bakhmut from Klynove along the M03 Highway and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also shelled Bakhmut and Vesela Dolyna. The Russian air force attacked Yakovlivka, Pokrovske and Vesela Dolyna.

West of the Svitlodarsk bulge, terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion with PMC Wagner Group, attempted to advance on Semyhira and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – The Ukrainian Directorate of Intelligence (SBU) is accusing PMC Wagner Group of destroying a building at the Olenivka Penal Colony that held prisoners of war from the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant. Local officials in Donetsk report up to 50 POWs were killed on July 28 and claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled the prison camp. Ukrainian officials have demanded the United Nations, Red Cross, and Red Crescent perform an immediate investigation. The SBU claims the order to kill the prisoners was made by Yevheny Prigozhin, the head of PMC Wagner Group.

In a statement on Telegram, the SBU wrote, “The explosions in Olenivka are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism by the occupying forces side. According to the available information, they were carried out by mercenaries from the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) under the personal command of the nominal owner of the specified PMC, Yevheny Prigozhin. The organization and execution of the terrorist attack was not agreed with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.”

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted to advance on Avdiivka and Pisky and were unsuccessful. In Pisky, Russian forces wore Ukrainian uniforms in an attempt to deceive defending forces.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka from Donetsk and were unsuccessful. It was reported that Russian forces made small gains in Marinka, advancing a couple of hundred meters to a slag heap.

Russian forces launched a small offensive toward Velkya Novosilvika from Blahodatne and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces fired rockets from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) on a large ammunition depot in Illoviask. The attack produced multiple secondary explosions that continued hours after the strike.

Kherson – Russian combat engineers made temporary repairs to the bridge over the Inhulets River at Darivka, enabling light vehicle traffic to cross the bridge.

Ukrainian forces have likely made advances toward Novopetrivka, tightening the partial encirclement of Russian forces in Vysokopillya.

Ukrainian forces fired rockets from HIMARS, destroying an ammunition depot in Brylivka. This strike is the second Russian based on the Crimea Canal that has been attacked in the last 24 hours.

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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired up to six missiles into the city of Mykolaiv. Three hit the city, destroying School Number 47, damaging the Yacht Club, and destroying an agricultural warehouse in the main port. Early in the morning on July 29, a Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile used in a ground-to-ground role struck a bus stop in Mykolaiv, killing five and wounding 12.

Oleksandr Sienkevych, Mayor of Mykolaiv reported, “The strike was conducted with an anti-aircraft missile, so the affected area is very large. It covers several hundred meters. That is why there are so many casualties. There are still people with slight injuries who will recover at home after receiving medical attention.”

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv. The line of conflict remains frozen with Russian artillery, rockets from MLRS, cruise missiles, and SRBMs prioritizing civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Russian and Ukrainian forces also exchange artillery and rocket fire from MLRS southeast of Chuhuiv. Russian forces shelled and fired rockets into Pechenihy, Bazaliivka, Lebyazhe, and Korobochkyne.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted reconnaissance in force near Brazhivka and were unsuccessful, suffering significant losses.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and artillery struck the settlements of Krasnopillya, Shalyhyne, and Brusky. There weren’t reports of injuries or significant damage.

Kyiv – Russian missiles hit a military base in Lyutizh, north of Kyiv. One building was destroyed and another was damaged.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces have initiated or are setting conditions for a significant offensive west of Donetsk but likely do not have the combat power to be successful.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to be abandoning attempts to secure Slovyansk and Siversk in favor of Bakhmut and areas west of Donetsk.
  3. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian combat losses are becoming closer to losses suffered in April and the first week of May and disproportional to Ukrainian losses in the field.

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The counteroffensive in Kherson will look a lot like the Pacific Campaign of World War II

Ukrainian government and military leaders have acknowledged that a counteroffensive in the Kherson oblast has started, and evidence is mounting that the operation is gaining momentum. The dictionary defines counteroffensive as “an attack made in response to one from an enemy, typically on a large scale and for a prolonged period.”

For many, the word counteroffensive conjures up images from World War II and the Battle of the Bulge in the Ardennes or the Red Army’s response to Germany’s Operation Bagration near Minsk. Prepare to be disappointed for those expecting massive formations of troops and tanks rushing across the steppe supported by ferocious artillery barrages. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson will more closely resemble the United States World War II island hopping campaign in the Pacific than the plains of Eastern Europe or the deserts of Iraq during the first Gulf War.

Beyond Kherson city, most of the oblast west of the Dnipro River is sparsely populated. Small villages dot wheat fields across a flat landscape similar to rural Kansas or Nebraska in the United States. Settlements are spread out as much as 10 to 12 kilometers apart with almost no natural defenses or obstacles. Tree-lined dirt roads offer some cover, but the routes are obvious and easily observed. This area is tank country, and the terrain had Cold War strategic planners at the Pentagon and the Kremlin fretting during the last century. However, both belligerents have a problem.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine have many tanks to spare in a broad advance across the region. Ukrainian forces are reportedly training tank brigades for a future initiative and continue to have limited resources. Russia has lost up to a third of its active main battle tank resources in five months and was forced to dip into reserves of Cold War-era T-62 and T-80BV tanks to fill the gap. Armor is armor, but the main gun on the T-62 has a range of 1,700 meters, making it particularly vulnerable in a tank-on-tank battle and against light infantry weapons with greater range.

Unlike the Ardennes, Minsk, or the desert southeast of Baghdad, militaries worldwide have ready access to consumer, commercial, and military drones that can monitor troop movements and concentrations in real-time. There aren’t any widescale surprise attacks that will or can happen in Kherson. Without an overwhelming number of tanks, drone-directed artillery fire will shred company-sized formations as they attempt to traverse open areas.

The United States Pacific campaign used an island hopping strategy in World War II to defeat Japan. After the battle of Midway, Japanese forces were operating defensively as the United States Navy and Marines ground down island garrisons. Part of the strategy was to capture strategic locations where further attacks could be launched while bypassing other islands with less strategic value. In Kherson, the wheat fields are oceans, villages are islands, patrols and small groups of armor are destroyers and submarines, drones are the aircraft and the infamous kamikazes, and artillery positions are battleships.

Ukraine has started its first island hopping campaign, with Vysokopillya as Guadacanal and Kherson as Okinawa. Continuing with the Gudacanal analogy, Potomkyne is Florida Island, and Olhyne is Savo. Ukrainian forces are fighting for control of Arkhanhelske and are advancing on Novopetrivka. To supply the Russian troops still in Vysokopillya, it is 11 kilometers across roadless open wheat fields to Veremiivka, where Ukraine artillery holds fire control.

The “battleships” (artillery) make the supply efforts dangerous across an open sea of wheat. Ukrainian forces are preparing for a broader “beach landing” on the city limits of Vysokopillya while “destroyers and submarines (tanks and light infantry) block a potential retreat route toward Novopetrivka. Russian troops are still clinging to the “island” of Arkhanhelske. The Russian “battleships” (artillery) can’t redeploy to concentrate on Vysokopillya and stem the advancing “naval convoys” closing in.

Because neither belligerent can develop air supremacy and lack enough tanks and, more importantly, trained tank crews, this scenario will play out repeatedly in the coming months. Ukrainian military leaders will consider the strategic value of each settlement between Vysokopillya and Kherson and whether there is a need to secure the next “island,” or bypass it and let a lack of supplies wither away Russian garrisons trapped in small villages.

Part of that assessment will almost certainly be how many “battleships” (artillery) are around each settlement and the risk versus reward of an attempted beach landing. Ukraine will not leave any force behind the main line of conflict that would pose a serious risk to supply lines or the offensive itself. However, small defenses in a town that once housed less than 100 people could be a distraction to the primary goal.

Just like in the Pacific theater of World War II, the offensive will start slowly. As Ukraine advances further, if they employ a solid strategy and manage its resources, capabilities will increase as more firepower is concentrated on a shrinking front. Russian forces west of the Dnipro also have the same problem as Imperial Japan.

In 1941 the Japanese Imperial Army had 1.7 million soldiers compared to the United States with 200,000. By the war’s end, the Allied forces in the Pacific had swelled to 4 million troops. At the same time, Japan was reduced to one-million soldiers, primarily old and young conscripts in territorial guard units preparing to defend the main island.

By 1943, Japan was suffering from widescale supply issues. Not much press or pages within history books have discussed United States submarines’ roles in the Pacific, but supply interdiction became an untenable problem. Ukraine is vigorously concentrating on disrupting Russian supply lines throughout and into Kherson, and it is starting to have an impact.

In comparison, allied forces only got stronger through more manpower, increased weapons output, technological improvements, cracking Japanese codes, the implementation of combined arms combat tactics, and the ability to be constantly supplied. Japan’s response to these deficiencies was to waste light infantry and pilots and their supporting equipment with no meaningful way to replace the losses. While these tactics caused some of the worst casualty rates in World War II, they only delayed the inevitable.

The destruction of two of the three bridges across the Dnipro and severely damaging the third have created a similar situation in Kherson. The makeshift ferry that’s been established adjacent to the destroyed Antonovskiyy Bridge isn’t capable of carrying enough rations to feed the garrison of 15,000 Russian troops in Kherson city. Munitions such as TELAR, Grad, and Smerch rockets will be even more challenging to move in significant quantites, let alone diesel fuel and gasoline for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and trucks. For now, Russia has no meaningful way to replace the loss of armored vehicles or larger artillery pieces.

Airlift by helicopter can manage small arms ammunition, potable water, and food. But artillery rounds, rockets, and fuel are likely out of reach. Ukraine holds air dominance in the region, which will make widescale Russian resupply flights even risker.

Both belligerents are deficient in main battle tanks. However, Russia is having a more challenging time replacing losses, and the replacement vehicles are older weapons systems with inferior armor, sites, and main guns. Ukraine has commitments from allied partners to provide up to 600 more main battle tanks. While not as modern as the Russian T-90 or American M1A2 Abrahams, the upgraded T-72 variants promised are still capable of outgunning the T-62 and have better technology than the T-80BV.

For Ukraine, bringing new equipment to the front is only harassed by imprecise Russian long-range missiles and airstrikes closer to the line of conflict. If Russia plans to ferry across a tank, it requires three support trucks and one fuel truck. Additionally, those trucks need somewhere to go to collect ammunition, rations, potable water, field medical supplies, and fuel. For Russia to do it right, the four pontoon ferry can only haul four tanks a trip, with supporting vehicles and supplies. Even then, resupply will take days, if not weeks, at four pontoons at a time.

Unless Russia can reestablish the bridges across the Dnipro and regain fire control, these logistical problems will only worsen. As Ukraine hops from each island in the wheat fields, the supply situation will continue to degrade, and like the Pacific Campaign of World War II, the advances will start to accelerate.

This process will take months, and when mud season starts in September or early October, travel will be limited to established improved roads until the snow and freezing temperatures come. By then, Russian forces awaiting their fight in towns and villages closer to Kherson will deal with supply shortages and the difficult choice between fighting to the death, attempting to break out and retreat to the next village across kilometers of open terrain, or surrendering. Ukrainian commanders will have to manage the losses of troops and equipment. Larger villages and towns, the ones most likely required for the “island hopping” campaign to succeed, will have strong defensive positions established and the benefit of firing on advancing forces that have to move in the open. Like beach landings in the Pacific, destroyers, battleships, and aircraft can only provide so much cover for advancing troops moving to the edge of established defenses. In 2022, that would be tanks, artillery, MLRS, and drones.

The counteroffensive to secure the western third of the Kherson oblast has started, but there are a lot of islands to hop across a sea of wheat before Kherson city is reached. The first few advances will take time and result in heavy losses for both sides. Eventually, Russian defenses will reach a culmination point and start to collapse.