Tag Archives: HIMARS

Russian offensive to capture Avdiivka falters – August 17, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,093 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces gaining additional protection from the Russian air force withdrew from the area of Ivano-Darivka back to the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

The former offices of the Ukrainian Intelligence Service in occupied Lysychansk were destroyed in a rocket attack launched by High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems (HIMARS). Governor Haidai reported the building was occupied by the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR). It is claimed over 100 were killed.

On August 15, an ammunition depot in Russian-controlled Rodakove was destroyed in a probable HIMARS attack.

Officers of the 2nd Army Corps on the LNR accidentally revealed the location of their command post in Lysychansk when they posted pictures on social media. The photos included all the metadata, including the precise geolocation.

Bakhmut

Reconnaissance units probed Ukrainian defenses in Soledar near the area of the KNAUFF-GIPS sheetrock factory and returned to their positions. In support of the attempted advance on Soledar, Russian forces continue to attempt to advance on Bakhmutske.

Russian forces tried to move into Zaitseve (10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut) using reconnaissance in force and were unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces attempted to advance into Zaitseve (north of Horlivka) but were unsuccessful.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance through the Mayorsk border crossing after Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions to the north and were unsuccessful. Following an artillery barrage on Shumy, DNR forces attempted to advance into the settlement and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps attempted to advance on Nevelske and Opytne. The advance on Nevelske was unsuccessful, and fighting was ongoing in Spartak, southeast of Opytne.

After fighting to secure the Butivka Mine Ventilation Shaft compound on the southeast edge of Pisky, DNR forces abandoned their positions without a fight. We have recoded Pisky as contested based on social intelligence, the General Staff report, and Russian state media reports.

Ukrainian forces shelled a water treatment plant in Donetsk city, causing additional damage to the facility, which was previously attacked on March 16.

Russian missiles destroyed several warehouses and electrical infrastructure in Kurakhove.

In the southern part of the Donbas, fighting for control of Novobakhmutivka continued, with Ukrainian positions being hit by airstrikes and artillery.

Russian forces attempted an advance on Shevchenko and were unsuccessful.

The International Red Cross now claims that its employees were able to visit the Russian penal colony in Olenvika, Donetsk, on two occasions. The revelation reverses earlier claims that they had never been allowed inside the compound. The ICRC stated they had no opportunities to meet with prisoners face-to-face, and Russian proxy forces would not allow unsupervised meetings, violating the Geneva Convention. For background information, you can read our Special Report: Anatomy of a botched false flag attack at Detention Camp 52.

Kharkiv

Members of the Azov Battalion conducted a special operation in Russian-controlled Ternova, northeast of Kharkiv. The unit destroyed two Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicles, an ammunition depot, and an observation post. Russian forces responded by remotely mining the settlements of Peremoha and Ukrainka.

Southeast of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched offensives toward Bazaliivka and Lebyazhe – neither were successful.

Russian forces shelled Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure along the entire line of conflict, including firing rockets from MLRS into the Saltivka District of Kharkiv.

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Izyum

South of Izyum, Russian forces continued their attempts to recapture Mazanivka and were unsuccessful. A new offensive to recapture Bohorodychne was launched, resulting in Russian forces being pushed back.

Russian forces shelled and then remote mined Dibrovne. The General Staff reported that Russian forces were advancing in the area of Nova Dymtrivka and were unsuccessful.

Near the village of Rudneve, Russian forces were ambushed by Ukrainian forces in the so-called “Sherwood Forest” region, west of Izyum.

Kherson

Russian efforts to push Ukraine from the Inhulets River bridgehead failed. Russian Special Operation Forces (SOF) attempted to flank Ukrainian positions in Bilohirka by advancing a platoon toward Bila Krynsytsya. The unit was discovered, suffered heavy losses, and retreated.

Simultaneously Russian forces from Davydiv Brid advanced on Bilohirka, contested the town, and then were pushed back, suffering heavy casualties in the failed offensive.

Russian forces made a second attempt to advance on Novohryhorivka, northwest of Kherson city and were unsuccessful.

There are reports that units of the Chechen Rosgvardiya have been redeployed east of the Dnipro River to prevent deserters from trying to leave their positions in Kherson. There have not been reports of widespread desertion, but morale is reported to be low, with the 25,000 Russian troops west of the river cut off.

Dnipropetrovsk

The settlement of Nikopol was shelled overnight. There was damage to the Nikopol highway and six homes but no casualties.

There has been no progress on efforts to demilitarize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Volodymyr Rogov, the Russian-appointed head of Zaporizhzhia, accused Ukraine of shelling the power plant and damaging the cooling circuit.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Lviv on August 18. Topics will include grain shipments, economics, and the situation at Zaporizhzhia. After the meeting in Lviv, Guterres will travel to Odesa.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that 130 artillery shells hit border towns on August 16. The settlements of Khotin, Billopillia, Myrolaiivka, Shalyhyne, and Krasnopillia were attacked.

The settlement of Kamianska Sloboda in the Chernihiv oblast was shelled from across the international border. There were no reports of casualties.

Odesa-Crimea-Black Sea

The seaside resort town of Zatoka was struck by two Kh-22 air-to-sea cruise missiles fired by Russian air force Tu-22M3 heavy bombers. The attack destroyed up to seven seaside hotels and over a dozen summer homes. This was the 11th attack on Zatoka since the start of the war.

Russian state media reported that the naval airbase in Russian-controlled Hvardeyskye, Crimea experienced a fire with several explosions. Two squadrons of the 37th Composite Aviation Regiment are stationed at the base.

Zhytomyr

Two Russian Kh-59 air-to-sea cruise missiles fired by Russian Su-34 aircraft operating in Belarusian airspace struck the Ukrainian air force base in Ozerne. Ukrainian officials reported the runway was cratered, and several non-aviation vehicles were damaged.

Beyond Ukraine

Russian officials are blaming Ukrainian Special Operation Forces for destroying multiple power transmission towers in the Kursk region. Russian FSB reported that between August 4 and 12, six towers for electrical distribution carrying from 110 to 750 kilovolts connected to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant were destroyed.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces continue to make operational security errors contributing to Ukrainian successes.
  2. The 1st Army Corps has likely abandoned direct assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka and may be reallocating troops already from Pisky.
  3. Ukrainian military leaders have maintained defensive lines across Ukraine despite having fewer resources and an artillery deficit.

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Ukrainian Special Forces destroy Crimea ammo depot – August 16, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,092 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces attempted to advance on Ivano-Darivka, Vyimka, and Vesele without success. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine described the assault as a “complete failure” with a “chaotic retreat.”

Russian forces launched a major attack toward Ivano-Darivka from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Fighting continued throughout the day.

A command post of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps was struck by rockets fired by High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems (HIMARS), destroying the former Ukrainian intelligence service building. Exiled Luhansk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported over soldiers and officers of the 2nd Army Corps were killed in the attack. Video from Lysychansk showed that the building had been obliterated.

Governor Haidai also reported Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group suffered over 100 casualties due to the August 14 HIMARS attack on their headquarters in Popasna. New videos and pictures of the Wagner headquarters after the attack showed vastly more damage than initially reported, confirming there were multiple rocket strikes. Members of PMC Wagner reported that the man behind the Telegram account Grey Zone died from injuries sustained in the attack.

General Ramzan Kadyrov posted a video showing Akhmat Division members fighting in an undisclosed location in northeast Donetsk. This is the first evidence of Chechen fighters still active in Ukraine in over two weeks, but the video appears to be old.

Bakhmut

Russian forces attempting to advance into Yakolivka either hit a landmine or were ambushed by Ukrainian forces and suffered equipment and personnel losses. Russian forces attempted to advance into Soledar from two directions – Bakhmutske and Stryapivka. The attacks were unsuccessful.

Russian forces continued attempts to advance into Bakhmutske and Zaitseve (10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut).

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces continue to attempt to capture Zaitseve from Horlivka. Russian forces shared a video of sappers blowing up the Luhan River bridge in Luhanske. The bridge is located in a region of solid Russian control.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

The latest report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention Pisky, and the last report of Ukrainian positions being shelled was 12 hours ago. Ukrainian forces remain northeast and south of the village, but in our assessment, Pisky is under Russian control.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) have launched positional battles near Staromykhailivka and Nevelske.

The DNR appears to have abandoned efforts to capture Avdiivka after suffering devastating losses in direct assaults.

A composition of Russian airborne VDV, naval infantry, DNR, and LNR forces launched a series of offensives in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces launched an offensive from Solodke toward Vodyane to the west and Volodymyrivka to the southwest. Neither offensive was successful.

Russian forces made another attempt to advance on Pavlivka, which was unsuccessful. A Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter was shot down.

In Russian-controlled Melitopol, insurgents blew up the TV transmitter and a substation, cutting off all television signals in the area.

Kharkiv

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Pro-Russian social media account Rybar made another claim that the border settlement of Udy was recaptured. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Sosnivka, between Udy and the Russian stronghold of Kozacha Lopan, was shelled through the day.

Seven Iskander-M Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) hit the Shevchenkivskyi, Kyivskyi, Saltivskyi, Industrialnyi, and Kholodnohirskyi district of Kharkiv during the largest artillery and missile attack on the city since May. There were no casualties reported.

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Izyum

Russian forces launched the heaviest round of artillery fire in over a week along the Izyum axis. Ukrainian positions in Hrushuvakha, Virnopilla, Krasnopilla, Asiivka, and Mazanivka were shelled.

Russian forces then attempted to advance on Mazanivka and Dolyna and were unsuccessful.

Kherson

Northwest of Kherson, Russian forces advanced toward Novohryhorivka and took heavy losses in the failed advance. Based on this information, we recoded the village of Zelenyi Hai as under Russian control.

Russian forces appear to be making a significant effort to push Ukrainian forces across the Inhulets River. Russian troops attacked Andriivka, Lozove, Bilohrika, and Bila Krynytsia, which is on the west bank of the river.

Dnipropetrovsk

The Russian Ministry of Defense continues stonewalling the International Atomic Energy Agency and United Nations’ request to allow inspections into the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Igor Vishnevetsky, Deputy Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control, claimed it would be too dangerous for international inspectors to travel to the plant through Kyiv.

Odesa-Crimea-Black Sea

A massive Russian ammunition depot in Maiske, Russian-controlled Crimea, exploded. Multiple videos showed continuous secondary explosions, air-to-air missiles flying in all directions, and two additional blasts. Satellite images before the blast suggest the ammo depot may have been 1,000 meters long. The Russian Ministry of Defense initially claimed the explosion was an accident and, in an update, reported that Ukrainian Special Operation Forces had destroyed the depot.

The depot was located 750 meters from civilian housing, and up to 3000 people were ordered to evacuate. Social media videos showed unexploded munitions had been thrown up to 5 kilometers away and littered roads, fields, and yards. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported there were no casualties, while occupation officials in Crimea reported at least two were wounded.

An naval airbase in Russian-controlled Hvardiiske was attacked by Ukrainian SOF, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Local residents reported multiple explosions and black clouds of smoke rising from the base, where more than two-dozen aircraft are stationed. Kremlin officials claim a kamikaze drone made the attack, and there were no casualties or significant damage.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces have dramatically increased operational tempo in northeast Donetsk, indicating a larger offensive may be starting than we previously assessed.
  2. The 1st Army Corps appears to have abandoned direct assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka after the capture of Pisky.
  3. Russian forces are attempting to push Ukrainian troops from the Inhulets River bridgehead, as supply issues are already hitting troops west of the Dnipro.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Up to 100 Russian mercenaries killed in HIMARS attack – August 15, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,091 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Northeast Donetsk

A Russian Special Operation Force (SOF) reconnaissance in force team attempted to advance on Serebrianka, came under fire from Ukrainian forces, and retreated.

Elements of the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), supported by the Russian Federation Armed Forces, attempted to advance into Ivano-Darivka, Vesele, and Spirne using reconnaissance in force and were unsuccessful.

The headquarters for Private Military Company Wagner Group was hit by rockets fired from High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems (HIMARS), causing significant damage and reportedly causing up to 100 casualties.

On August 8, Private Military Company Wagner Group aligned Telegram channel Grey Zone, shared detailed pictures of the Wagner command and control base in Popasna. One of the photos a Russian journalist took during the visit included the address of the building where the base was located. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner and a close Putin ally, was in one of the pictures.

Wagner Telegram channel Reverse Side of the Medal shared pictures of the destroyed base and the wounded and dead being removed. Pictures shared by Wagner Group show at least two impacts on the building, including one that would have penetrated the basement area. Another post-attack video was recorded by an insurgent or Ukrainian SOF showing Wagner loading some of the dead into a van.

Ukrainian SOF made a reconnaissance mission in Brusivka, on the north bank of the Siverski Donets River near Lyman. They came under machine gun fire, attempted to flank the Russian positions, and withdrew.

Bakhmut

Russian airborne forces (VDV) attempted another reconnaissance in force push on the edge of Soledar and were unsuccessful.

PMC Wagner, supported by LNR separatists, tried to advance on Yakovlivka and Vershyna without success. Russian VDV forces assaulted Bakhmut and, according to the General Staff, had “partial success.” After the attack, Bakhmut experienced the worst shelling since the war began.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Zaitseve, 10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut and were unsuccessful. In the Svitlodarsk bulge fighting for control of Kodema and Zaitseve (north of Horlivka) continued.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

West of Donetsk, the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) continued its offensive to capture Pisky. They remained unsuccessful in pushing Ukrainian forces out of the northern part of the village.

On the south side of Pisky, DNR forces attempted to advance on Pervomaiske and were unsuccessful.

In southern Ukraine, Russian forces made another attempt to advance on Pavlivka and tried to improve their position near Vremivka without success.

Insurgents in Melitopol destroyed a railroad bridge south of the city and reportedly caused major damage to the structure.

Social media pictures showed a large fire at the port in Berdyansk. The exiled mayor of the port city reported the fire was caused by a “violation of safety requirements” during welding work that ignited fuel and oil storage.

Mykolaiv

Russian forces fired S300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground capacity for the first time in almost a week into Mykolaiv. The main port was hit, causing damage to the facilities.

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Izyum

South of Izyum, pictures by Ukrainian forces confirm that the settlement of Brazhivka has been fully liberated. Russian forces attempted to advance in the direction of Dolyna and were unsuccessful.

Dnipropetrovsk

Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to trade accusations of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The Russian-controlled city of Energodar, where the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is located, was shelled, killing one person. Russian forces fired 20 Grad rockets into Nikopol and shelled Marganets. There were no injuries reported.

Sumy

Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor, reported Yunakivka, Esman, Khotin, and Billopillia were shelled and hit by mortars. There was a border skirmish north of Billopillia at the now closed international border crossing into Russia.

Chernihiv

The settlement of Senkivka was shelled.

Beyond Ukraine

In Zareche-Vtore, Russia, Ukrainian SOF used a loitering munition or explosives to collapse a large communications tower, destroying it.

Daily Assessment

  1. The 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic is combat ineffective, with multiple reports that it is on the brink of being combat destroyed.
  2. Volunteer fighters in Russia are starting to return home from their contracts and complain of poor equipment, terrible treatment, and going unpaid.
  3. Russian proxy forces suffered another embarrassing and preventable defeat due to terrible operational security, resulting in dozens of mercenaries being killed and wounded in a confirmed HIMARS attack.

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25K Russian troops west of the Dnipro River cut off – August 14, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,089 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Northeast Donetsk

Elements of the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), supported by the Russian Federation Armed Forces, continued their efforts to advance on Ivano-Darivka, Vyimka, and Vesele. They renewed efforts to advance on Spirne, including an airstrike by the Russian air force.

The headquarters of Private Military Company Wagner Group in Popasna was destroyed by a rocket attack from High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems (HIMARS). Mercenaries with PMC Wagner shared detailed photos of the headquarters’ location on social media earlier this week. There were graphic pictures and videos of the dead and wounded.

Bakhmut

Near Bakhmut, Russian VDV performed reconnaissance on the eastern edge of Soledar and came under fire. They retreated to previous defensive positions.

PMC Wagner, supported by LNR separatists, tried to advance on Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, and Vershyna without success.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge fighting for control of Kodema continued. The General Staff reported continued fighting for Zaitseve and the settlement being hit by an airstrike.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

North of Donetsk, Russian forces attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka and were unsuccessful.

The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) continued its offensive to capture Pisky. After massive artillery shelling on August 12, they made further advances, with Ukrainian forces in the northern part of the settlement.

DNR and Ukrainian forces fought positional battles in Avdiivka and Spartak without changing the line of conflict.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps also attempted to advance on Marinka and were unsuccessful.

Russian forces made another attempt to advance on Pavlivka and tried to improve their position near Novopil and Prechystivka without success.

Kherson

The Antonovisky Bridge that connects Kherson to southern Ukraine was attacked for a fourth time, disabling the structure. Up to 25,000 Russian troops are essentially trapped on the west bank of the Dnipro River with limited resupply options.

Mykolaiv Oblast Administrative and Military Governor Vitalii Kim reported that Russian military leaders were moving their command posts east of the Dnipro River. There were additional reports of Russian soldiers starting to loot garages and homes in Kherson city.

Rockets fired from HIMARS struck seven Russian-controlled settlements, including Velyka Blahovischenka, Melitopol, Nova Kakhovka, Chaplynka, Nyzhni Sirohozy, and Novotroitske. A video showed the aftermath of the strike in Nova Kakhovka, with secondary explosions from ammunition cooking off.

Two platoons of Russian naval infantry attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of Lozove and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Andriivka but could not move the line of conflict.

Russian forces also attempted to advance on Shyroke and Oleksandrivka [Kherson] and were unsuccessful.

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Izyum

Northwest of Izyum, the Russian air force struck the settlement of Zalyman.

Russian forces attempted to advance in the direction of Nova Dmytrivka and Dolyna. Neither advance was successful.

Dnipropetrovsk

Russian forces at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant fired 50 Grad rockets from MLRS at Nikopol and Marhanets.

Sumy

Dmytro Zhivytsky, Sumy Regional Administrative and Military Governor, reported Esman, Khotin, Mykolaivka, Billopillia, Znob-Novhorodske, Nova Sloboda, Velyka Pysarivka, and Shalyhyne were shelled and hit by mortars. There were no casualties or major damage.

Chernihiv

In Chernihiv, the settlements of Hremyach, Senkivka, and Pushkari were shelled.

Beyond Russia

Igor “Girkin” Strelkov was detained by the Russian military at the Crimean border, trying to enter Ukraine. The arresting unit outed his FSB alias by releasing a picture of his passport. Strelkov was returned to Russia and later released by authorities.

Daily Assessment

  1. The latest round of bridge attacks has severed all the Ground Lines of Communications (GLOC – aka supply line) across the Dnipro in Kherson – logistics and supply for 25,000 Russian soldiers will be a significant issue.
  2. The tension between the Kremlin and Strelkov is growing after his criticism likely was a bridge too far and his attempt to enter Ukraine allegedly as a “fighter.”
  3. Russian forces are initiating spoiling attacks in northeast Donetsk, likely attempting to pull Ukrainian resources from Bakhmut and Soledar to break what is turning into a stalemate.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Anatomy of a botched false flag attack at Detention Camp 52

Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this story referenced the converted warehouse where POWs from the Azov Battalion were being kept in the northeast corner – that should have been northwest. Thank you for your understanding.

[UKRAINE] – (MTN) – On July 28, the self-declared leaders of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic accused Ukraine of attacking the Olenivka Penal Colony, located 16 kilometers from the line of conflict. Over the span of 12 hours, Russian leaders, Russian state media, and unaffiliated pro-Russian journalists shared horrifying pictures, painting the Ukrainian armed forces as the executions of their people. The evidence they showed the world and their own casualty reports painted a different picture. One that potentially and accidentally documented in vivid detail the worst war crime against POWs in Europe since the Kosovo War in 1998.

The history of the Detention Camp 52

The dark history of Olenivka started in 2014 when the camp, situated in wheat fields and rolling hills just west of the village of Molodizhne, became a filtration camp for Crimean Tartars after the Russian occupation of the Crimea Peninsula. A 2015 United States Department of State annual report on Human Rights in Ukraine documented extrajudicial imprisonment and justice, torture, and executions. Conditions in the colony were squalid where disease ran rampant, and potable water was scarce.

After the Russia-Ukraine War started in February, Detention Camp 52, as it is officially known, took on a new role as a filtration camp for Ukrainian citizens in captured territory. During the siege of Mariupol, people who tried to leave the city went through a filtration process in the towns of Manush and Bezimenne. Many of those who were taken away for additional filtration ended up in Olenivka.

Women who went through filtration and were released reported being held in concentration camp conditions. They were held in areas so cramped they had to sleep sitting or, worse, in shifts. There was little heat, no blankets, and no beds. Disease was rampant, food was scarce, and drinking water was withheld, sometimes for more than a day. Hygiene products were barely provided, and female hygiene products were not to be found.

The world got its first look inside Olenivka in April when Russian state media and Pro-Russian social media accounts circulated pictures of alleged Ukrainian POWs from Mariupol. Our team analyzed and geolocated the videos. The video wasn’t recorded in Mariupol – it was recorded in Olenivka.

Photo credit – Russian State Media – a still image from a video released on April 14 shows alleged Ukrainian POWs from Mariupol. Russian state media claimed the video was recorded in Mariupol but in the Olenivka Penal Colony.

Editor’s Note: We have elected not to blur the faces of these prisoners in the hope that the continued sharing of their faces and identities can help keep them alive.

An analysis of the video showed only a few men in military uniforms moved to the front while the rest wore civilian clothing. Some of the men didn’t wear the uniforms of Ukraine but of Russian separatist militias. Most of the men did not resemble the numerous pictures from Russian state media and dark corners of Telegram showing dead Ukrainian soldiers who were mostly younger and more fit than their Russian conscript counterparts.

Photo Credit – Google Maps – satellite image of Olenivka Penal Colony – 47°49’38.9″N 37°42’41.4″E

The penal colony is easily found on a map. The prison is double-walled and covers over 114,000 square meters. The perimeter is 1.5 kilometers with buildings for administration, guards, and worse surrounding the facility. In the northwest region, the warehouse that was partially converted into housing for prisoners of the Azov Battalion was still unused and had holes in its roof at the time of the Google satellite image.

From filtration camp to POW colony

On May 15, almost three months after the siege of Mariupol began and three weeks after Russia had declared victory within the port city, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that a deal had been reached that would permit the safe surrender of the Ukrainian forces remaining inside the Azovstal Metallurgical Factory.

Confusion spread through the news channels as Pro-Russian social media accounts spread disinformation, and officials remained silent. Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine, Anna Malyar, released a brief statement in the morning saying, “Thanks to the defenders of Mariupol, Ukraine gained critically important time. They fulfilled all their tasks. But it is impossible to unblock Azovstal by military means.”

Initially, the deal negotiated through United Nations and Red Cross intermediaries appeared to be a win for Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine found a way out for up to 2,200 marines, territorial guards, foreign volunteers, and local police. Russia was able to end its siege without having to storm the fortress that was Azovstal. It would take 7,000 to 10,000 troops to defeat the 2,200 remaining defenders, resulting in heavy losses. Russia’s offensive in Luhansk was bogged down, and they needed a way out.

On May 16, the first 264 Ukrainian troops left Azovstal and into Russian captivity. Among them were 53 seriously wounded soldiers that would face death without care from a hospital. Reporters from Russian state media and western media documented the evacuation and followed the convoy of hospital buses to Bezimenne. The other 211 soldiers faced an uncertain future as a convoy of five buses headed northeast to Olenivka.

On May 16, we wrote in our Situation Report, “The soldiers were likely taken to the infamous detention camp 52, between Olenivka and Molodizhne.” Video released by Russian state media on May 17, showed the convoy of busses arriving in the morning hours at the filtration center turned POW camp.

The deal that was brokered between Russia and Ukraine through the United Nations and Red Cross would facilitate a prisoner of war transfer. The Red Cross would be able to document the information on each prisoner, notify their family members, be a conduit of communication, and would monitor their care and treatment.

As the last of as many as 2,200 remaining soldiers, foreign volunteers, and police left the bunkers of Azovstal, the deal was already falling apart.

A history of war crimes

There were already rumors and whispers about the conditions within Detention Camp 52 as Mariupol POWs streamed in. The Red Cross never received its promised access, and multiple requests to inspect Olenivka and the prisoners were denied. Officials weren’t even permitted to document all of the prisoners that were removed from Azovstal, with a large discrepancy between the numbers claimed by the Russian Ministry of Defense and human rights observers.

Before the group from Mariupol arrived, the stories were consistent for the few who could leave the walls. Men taken to Olenivka fell into three groups.

For those found to be part of the military, the government, or had a prior history with the military or as a government employee, beatings, torture, and disappearances awaited. A release could be found through forced conscription for able-bodied men from 18 to 65 with no prior military or government connections and no pro-Ukrainian tattoos or ideation on digital devices. Those that refused faced deprivation, beatings, and torture until they disappeared or joined the Donetsk People’s Republic militia as forced conscripts. For the rest, slave labor in dangerous conditions awaited while living in squalid conditions without enough food and limited access to clean drinking water. The Red Cross and United Nations brokered a deal that committed POWs to concentration camp conditions.

On June 29, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that a prisoner swap had been arranged, and 144 POWs held at Olenivka were being exchanged for 144 Russian POWs. Among those released were 95 defenders from Azovstal and 43 members of the Azov Battalion. Pro-Russian social media erupted with outrage. Outside of the bots, troll farms, and the consumers of their social media content, hope emerged for more swaps on both sides. Despite the issues, it seemed possible that civility would prevail and that the stories were exaggerations. The hope was short-lived.

Photo credit – Ukrainian Ministry of Defense – former Ukrainian POWs await transport back to Ukraine during a June 29, 2022 prisoner exchange

Many of those released were in poor health and were still healing from wounds now six weeks old. Some had to be taken away in ambulances. The Ukrainian government said that those released were getting the medical and psychological care they needed and asked for respect and privacy. Soon after their release, new whispers emerged within the medical community.

Beginning on July 8, our e-mail and social media inboxes became flooded with requests to validate reports that many of the soldiers released on June 29 had been castrated. On July 10, we made a public response that in order to confirm the reports, we would require first-person accounts from Ukraine with the cooperation of doctors and former POWs willing to go on the record. We would need access to medical records and permission from the Ukrainian government. We would need assistance and support from individuals trained to interview victims of torture and former prisoners in an ethical and respectful way.

We started working through our network to make that happen and planning a trip in late September or early October. On July 27, we received our forms from the Ukrainian government to get our press credentials. We wouldn’t need them. Hours later, the world had all the evidence it needed.

Photo credit – left – Russian state media – right – PMC Wagner Group – on the left is the person accused of torturing and executing a Ukrainian POW – on the right is a still image of the torture where the POW was beaten, castrated, mutilated, and executed

On July 28, a disturbing video emerged of a bound Ukrainian POW being castrated with a box cutter and then stomped on by a soldier in the Chechen Ahmat Unit, possibly in Severodoentsk, sometime in June. The POW was bound and restrained by multiple mercenaries and made blood-curdling screams as he was hacked for more than 45 seconds in the horrific video. After severing the genitals, the mercenary holds it up to the camera and tosses it on the ground by the man’s head. The video started circulating on Pro-Russian Telegram channels before spilling over to Twitter, YouTube, and others. The video has been deemed authentic, and the perpetrator in the video has been identified. A few hours later, a second part of the video emerged. The Ukrainian POW, who was likely already fatally wounded from his torture, was shot in the head at point-blank range.

The whispers of castration weren’t just rumors. They were unthinkably true.

A false flag to clean up a big mess

During the week of July 25, the leaders of Detention Camp 52 moved up to 200 members of the Azovstal Batallion to their own quarters. The area was walled off from the larger warehouse. It was a single room with a high ceiling and a corrugated metal roof. The building was brick and cinderblock construction.

PMC Wagner Group had at least one major problem, and possibly two. A squad recorded themselves torturing and executing a Ukrainian POW. The participants in the war crime wore surgical gloves, and the leader of the atrocity had a box cutter. In less than two minutes, they coordinated and moved in a way that indicated this was not the first time this had been done.

Worse, he was almost instantly identified because of his distinct clothing and the perpetrator appearing in earlier Russian state news reports, revealing distinguishing characteristics. Within 24 hours, the video had been validated by multiple sources, including our own team. The United Nations, European Union, and government officials condemned the action labeling it a war crime and a terrorist act.

Within the walls of Olenivka were there other prisoners who had been castrated, but instead of their testicles and penis removed to the prostate gland, only had their testicles cut off? The world will likely never know.

Hours after an undetermined explosion in the new barracks and Russian accusations of it being a HIMARS strike, the Ukrainian Directorate of Intelligence accused PMC Wagner Group of destroying the building. Local officials in Donetsk reported that 47 POWs had been killed and up to 130 wounded on July 28. Ukrainian intelligence claimed that the order to destroy the building came directly from Yevheny Prigozhin, the head of PMC Wagner Group.

There were reports that inspectors from the Russian Ministry of Defense were coming on September 1 to check on the conditions on Olenivka and do an audit of funds given to Wagner Group to expand the strained facilities.

In a statement on Telegram, Ukrainian Intelligence wrote, “The explosions in Olenivka are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism by the occupying forces side. According to the available information, they were carried out by mercenaries from the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) under the personal command of the nominal owner of the specified PMC, Yevheny Prigozhin.”

As the Kremlin and leaders of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic tried to turn the horror into a public relations coup, likely in an attempt to cripple western sanctions and arms support, the story quickly disintegrated. Not a single person with the Russian military, separatist militias, terrorists from the Imperial Legion, PMC Wagner Group, Chechen territorial guard, local territorial guard, or area police were injured or killed in the attack. No camp administrators or support staff were killed or wounded. The building, which held up to 200 POWs, was void of any guards or other authorities.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with Ukrainian heads of staff and the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner of Human Rights regarding the terrorist attack in Olenivka, which was deliberately staged by Russian occupation forces. The Red Cross submitted a formal request to inspect the site and conduct an investigation.

The European Union condemned the incident, with EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell stating Russia’s actions constitute “severe breaches of the Geneva conventions and their Additional protocol and amount to war crimes.”

The Red Cross, which was supposed to have unfettered access as part of the May agreement, submitted a formal request to inspect the site and conduct an investigation. In a later statement, the Red Cross said it would conduct a full investigation if “all parties” would agree.

The evidence doesn’t support there was a rocket attack

Ukrainian officials have known about Olenivka since 2014. The camp, 16 kilometers from the line of conflict, has never been shelled since Russia annexed Crimea and separatists started fighting in February 2014. The settlements around the camp have also never come under artillery or rocket fire, nor have ever been bombed or attacked by aircraft. Our research team was aware of Detention Camp 52 by early March and was working on documenting and validating ongoing abuse claims.

We spoke with a former Gebirgspionier with the German Bundeswehr with explosives experience for their evaluation.

“It’s impossible that a HIMARS fired M30 or M31 warhead was used in the strike on the POW camp. No usual shrapnel pattern on the walls; they are almost virgin. Even the bodies don’t show shrapnel wounds but typical blast injuries. The roof is almost intact, which is near impossible for the corrugated metal roof material. The roof would have been blown almost entirely.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage and charred bodies still inside the Olenivka Penal Colony

The bunk beds would have been expected to fall over and be torn apart, at least in the center of the blast radius. However, the burn marks on the walls and the spalling in their center remind me of directional charges (like one or two MON-90 hanging from or laying on the metal roof) attached to a gasoline canister. In my assessment, this caused the spalling on the wall: an impact of that metal canister where [an accelerant] splashed and formed those significant brand markings, as you would expect when searching a burned house for the source of a fire.”

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage and charred bodies still inside the Olenivka Penal Colony

Photos from the exterior also do not support the claim of a rocket attack. The building has no shrapnel damage. The corrugated metal roof has been blown outward, not smashed down and blasted away. The blast damage and fire damage are all from the interior. Metal bars and window frames are not blown out but show damage consistent with an interior building fire.

The section of the building directly adjacent to where the Azovstal prisoners were held is also undamaged, with no blast damage through the concrete block wall.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 29 still image from a video showing damage to the outside of the Olenivka Penal Colony, which is inconsistent with a rocket, missile, or artillery attack

But the most damning evidence came from Russian state media and PMC Wagner Group. On July 27, a video circulated of a school in Izyum that had been converted into a military base after it had been attacked with rockets fired by HIMARS. That building was more soundly constructed than the Olenivka warehouse and had multiple interior rooms that would have contained the blast. The damage to the building doesn’t match the impact on the penal colony. The roof has been smashed from the top and blown out by the detonation. The building has been blown apart, with debris strewn in multiple directions. Whole window frames were blown out and lay meters away.

Photo credit – Russian state media – a July 27 still image from a video showing a school converted to a military base by PMC Wagner Group in Izyum after it was destroyed in a HIMARS strike

In another clumsy attempt to claim Ukraine committed a war crime by destroying a school, Wagner Group’s drone video showed trenches, tank scrapes, and firing positions on the school grounds and, from at least one point, still partially intact after the strike. The video also provided clear evidence of what a HIMARS strike looks like and the damage it causes.

Epilogue

Ultimately we cannot arbitrate if this was an interior or exterior explosion. That will have to be left to the experts and investigators. It is unlikely that third-party investigators will be allowed onto the scene until it was been sanitized and prepared more, if ever.

Was the building destroyed to cover up torture and mutilation? Was the explosion rigged to mass execute Azov Battalion members while painting Ukraine as the perpetrators to fracture western support? Was PMC Wagner Group covering up more war crimes and potential corruption?

One day, we may know. In war, the victor writes the history.

Night of the HIMARS – July 30, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,074 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance from the administrative borders of Luhansk.

Ukrainian forces destroyed ammunition depots in Pervomaisk and Bryanka in separate strikes using rockets fired by High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). In Bryanka, a base for terrorist members of the Imperial Legion working with Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group was heavily damaged.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces made a reconnaissance in force advance toward Verkhnotoretske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery, but they were unsuccessful.

Bakhmut – Russian forces gained ground in Pokrovske, moving northwest and closer to Bakhmut. In the Svitlodark Bulge, Russian forces attempted to advance on Vershyna and Semyhirya. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion working with PMC Wagner Group reached the eastern boundary of Semyhirya. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance from the area of Travneve in two directions but did not gain new territory.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces have started a broad offensive west of Donetsk, attacking Ukrainian positions. Some marginal gains have been made.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) continue to attempt to advance on Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Opytne, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. Fighting continued in Marinka, with Russian forces repulsed.

Rockets fired by HIMARS destroyed ammunition depots in Alchevsk, Mospyne, and Yasynuvata.

In Zaporizhia, rockets hit a hotel complex used as barracks for Russian troops in Enerhodar. An ammunition cache cooked off, causing a larger fire. HIMARS rocket fire also destroyed a fuel depot in Kamyanka-Dniprovska.

Kherson – In Kherson, Ukrainian forces are setting conditions to advance on Bruskynske from the Inhulets River bridgehead established in Lozove.

There are unconfirmed reports that the situation for Russian forces in Vysokopillya and those remaining in part of Arkhanhelske is becoming increasingly difficult. Both settlements are cut off from their Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply line), and the remaining forces are technically encircled.

Rockets fired by HIMARS struck two locations in Nova Kakhovka. A big box hardware store holding a large ammunition depot was hit, producing a massive secondary explosion. A second area to the east was also hit. Additionally, an ammunition depot in Semenivka was targeted and destroyed in a rocket attack.

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Mykolaiv – Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground capacity struck a busy bus stop, killing five, hospitalizing 12, wounding dozens, and killing some dogs that people were walking at the time of the attack

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv. Russian forces targeted the Kharkiv University of Agricultural Studies in a missile attack using S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a surface-to-surface capacity. The school was heavily damaged.

Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles also target a meat processing plant in Bohodukhiv, destroying the facility.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance into Brazhivka and Dmytrivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also attempted to conduct reconnaissance in Schurivka and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces destroyed another Russian battery of artillery north of Izyum. The artillery unit was clustered in the tree line south of Sukha Kamyanka and suffered heavy losses by drone-directed counterbattery.

On July 27, rockets fired by HIMARS destroyed a base for the terrorist organization Imperial Legion working for PMC Wagner Group in Izyum. Video shot by Russian State Media and PMC Wagner Group tried to portray the strike as an attack against a grade school. The video released by Wagner showed the building was sandbagged with firing positions and had trenches and defensive positions dug around it.

Chernihiv – Operational Command North reported the settlement of Semeniv on the Russian border was shelled, with the town administration building damaged. There were no casualties reported.

Daily Assessment

  1. Private Military Company Wagner Group likely committed a war crime and violated the Geneva Convention for the trust and care of prisoners of war.
  2. Ukraine continues to target ammunition depots, troop concentrations, and critical transportation infrastructure with HIMARS, crippling Russia’s ability to wage war.
  3. Russian forces have initiated or are setting conditions for a significant offensive west of Donetsk but likely do not have the combat power to be successful.

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PMC Wagner Group tortures Ukrainian POW in shocking video – July 29, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,073 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. Here is your daily Russia-Ukraine War summary

Luhansk – A disturbing video emerged of a bound Ukrainian POW being castrated with a box cutter and then stomped on by a terrorist with the PMC Wagner Group in Severodoentsk sometime in June. The POW was bound and restrained by multiple mercenaries and made blood-curdling screams as he was hacked for more than 45 seconds in the horrific video. After severing the genitals, the mercenary holds it up to the camera and tosses it on the ground by the man’s head. The video was found on the cellphone of a dead soldier, analyzed by Ukrainian intelligence, and leaked to social media. The video has been deemed authentic, and the perpetrator in the video has been identified.

Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets released a statement that his office was preparing a message to the United Nations Committee Against Torture.  “As the Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament] Commissioner for Human Rights, I have applied to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to verify the facts and to record a war crime and a violation of the norms of the Geneva Convention,” he wrote in a statement.

“We will hold consultations with the International Committee of the Red Cross again to increase the pressure by the countries from around the world on the Russian side to fulfill its obligations regarding prisoners of war and to allow access of ICRC representatives to the POW to assess their health and conditions of detention.”

Additionally, proceedings will be entered under Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine against the identified individual who committed the torture.

Russian forces did not attempt to advance from the administrative borders of Luhansk, instead relying on artillery, indirect fire from tanks, and airstrikes in northeast Donetsk oblast.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted reconnaissance to determine the position and strength of Ukrainian forces in Berestove and Nahime. Neither advance was successful.

Bakhmut – Near Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakovlivka and were unsuccessful. East of Soledar, fighting continued near the town. Russian forces attempted to advance on Bakhmut from Klynove along the M03 Highway and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also shelled Bakhmut and Vesela Dolyna. The Russian air force attacked Yakovlivka, Pokrovske and Vesela Dolyna.

West of the Svitlodarsk bulge, terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion with PMC Wagner Group, attempted to advance on Semyhira and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – The Ukrainian Directorate of Intelligence (SBU) is accusing PMC Wagner Group of destroying a building at the Olenivka Penal Colony that held prisoners of war from the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant. Local officials in Donetsk report up to 50 POWs were killed on July 28 and claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled the prison camp. Ukrainian officials have demanded the United Nations, Red Cross, and Red Crescent perform an immediate investigation. The SBU claims the order to kill the prisoners was made by Yevheny Prigozhin, the head of PMC Wagner Group.

In a statement on Telegram, the SBU wrote, “The explosions in Olenivka are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism by the occupying forces side. According to the available information, they were carried out by mercenaries from the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) under the personal command of the nominal owner of the specified PMC, Yevheny Prigozhin. The organization and execution of the terrorist attack was not agreed with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.”

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted to advance on Avdiivka and Pisky and were unsuccessful. In Pisky, Russian forces wore Ukrainian uniforms in an attempt to deceive defending forces.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka from Donetsk and were unsuccessful. It was reported that Russian forces made small gains in Marinka, advancing a couple of hundred meters to a slag heap.

Russian forces launched a small offensive toward Velkya Novosilvika from Blahodatne and were unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces fired rockets from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) on a large ammunition depot in Illoviask. The attack produced multiple secondary explosions that continued hours after the strike.

Kherson – Russian combat engineers made temporary repairs to the bridge over the Inhulets River at Darivka, enabling light vehicle traffic to cross the bridge.

Ukrainian forces have likely made advances toward Novopetrivka, tightening the partial encirclement of Russian forces in Vysokopillya.

Ukrainian forces fired rockets from HIMARS, destroying an ammunition depot in Brylivka. This strike is the second Russian based on the Crimea Canal that has been attacked in the last 24 hours.

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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired up to six missiles into the city of Mykolaiv. Three hit the city, destroying School Number 47, damaging the Yacht Club, and destroying an agricultural warehouse in the main port. Early in the morning on July 29, a Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile used in a ground-to-ground role struck a bus stop in Mykolaiv, killing five and wounding 12.

Oleksandr Sienkevych, Mayor of Mykolaiv reported, “The strike was conducted with an anti-aircraft missile, so the affected area is very large. It covers several hundred meters. That is why there are so many casualties. There are still people with slight injuries who will recover at home after receiving medical attention.”

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv. The line of conflict remains frozen with Russian artillery, rockets from MLRS, cruise missiles, and SRBMs prioritizing civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Russian and Ukrainian forces also exchange artillery and rocket fire from MLRS southeast of Chuhuiv. Russian forces shelled and fired rockets into Pechenihy, Bazaliivka, Lebyazhe, and Korobochkyne.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted reconnaissance in force near Brazhivka and were unsuccessful, suffering significant losses.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and artillery struck the settlements of Krasnopillya, Shalyhyne, and Brusky. There weren’t reports of injuries or significant damage.

Kyiv – Russian missiles hit a military base in Lyutizh, north of Kyiv. One building was destroyed and another was damaged.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces have initiated or are setting conditions for a significant offensive west of Donetsk but likely do not have the combat power to be successful.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to be abandoning attempts to secure Slovyansk and Siversk in favor of Bakhmut and areas west of Donetsk.
  3. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian combat losses are becoming closer to losses suffered in April and the first week of May and disproportional to Ukrainian losses in the field.

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Russia fires missiles from Belarus on Kyiv and Chernihiv – July 28, 2022 Ukraine update

Updated 10:10 AM – There are reports of fatalities at Kanatove Air Base.

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,073 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Kyiv – At least three Iskander-M missiles fired from Belarus struck an industrial facility in Vyshorod, northwest of Kyiv. Two large plumes of smoke were visible over the settlement. The missiles were fired from the Gomel area of Belarus. There were no casualties reported.

Luhansk – Fighting continued along the administrative border of the Luhansk. Russian forces attempted to advance on Verkhnokamyanske from Bilohorivka [Luhansk] and were unsuccessful. Russian forces remained stuck at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and did not attempt any advances.

Northeast Donetsk – Russian and Ukrainian forces fought only skirmishes in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. Ukrainian forces maintained control of Berestove.

Bakhmut – East of Soledar, fighting to control Stryapivka continued and was limited to small arms fire without armor support. Fighting within Pokrovske continued.

The fiercest fighting continues to be west of the Svitlodarsk bulge. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group attempted to advance on Kodema and Semyhrija but were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian troops and the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) separatist militia heavily shelled Avdiivka, Pisky, and Marinka. Avdiivka was continuously shelled for five hours. Self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev claimed in Telegram that this was part of a larger offensive and a direct assault on Avdiivka. He labeled the activity as “preparation work” but was non-specific on the target of a ground offensive.

It was reported that Russian forces attacked in the direction of Hulyaipole, but the origination point was unspecified. The attempted advance was unsuccessful.

Kherson – Russian barracks in Chornyanka were struck in a rocket attack fired by HIMARS. Russian forces staying at the football stadium (soccer for Americans) and the buildings across the street practiced inadequate Operational Security (OPSEC) in mid-July, sharing pictures of the base.

In Kherson, Ukrainian forces disabled the Antonovskiyy bridge, Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridge, and the Nova Kakhovka bridge that goes over the Kahhovka Hydro Electric Dam. The Antonovskiyy and Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridges are irreparable until after the war.

Additionally, Russian forces built a pontoon bridge over the Inhulets River at Darivka and have attempted to camouflage it with foliage. To bypass the Antonovskiyy Bridge, A ferry was established using a bridging tug to tow four pontoon bridge sections. The “ferry” is hugging the damaged bridge as a shield and combines civilian and military traffic.

Russian forces attempted to advance on Andriivka [Kherson] from Novohrednjeve and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attempted to advance on Bilohirka from Bruskynske and were also unsuccessful.

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Mykolaiv – S-300 antiaircraft missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv in a ground-to-ground capacity. A school was virtually destroyed, and the ship-building university was damaged. A security guard was injured in the attack.

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives. There were positional battles and reconnaissance in force near Sonivka-Kozacha Lopan, Dementiivka, and Tsupivka. The line of conflict remains frozen with Russian artillery, rockets from MLRS, cruise missiles, and SRBMs prioritizing civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Two S-300 antiaircraft missiles used in a ground-to-ground role struck the center of Kharkiv. There wasn’t any significant damage, but a police officer was killed when one of the missile landed near a power plant.

The city of Chuhuiv, 65 kilometers southeast of Kharkiv, was shelled, with Russian forces targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Izyum – South of Izyum, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that Ukrainian troops had advanced to Pasika and attacked a Russian reconnaissance unit in the area. The settlement is 6 kilometers north of the previously known line of conflict. The General Staff also reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reported that the settlement of Brazhvivka had been shelled. The exiled City Council of Borova reported that almost all Russian troops had left the settlement, with only a small security force remaining. The council claims that Borova came under artillery fire from the south, suggesting it came from Pidlyman, which we believe is still under Russian control. One civilian was killed.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and artillery struck the settlements of Esman and Seredyna-Buda. There was no damage and no casualties.

Chernihiv – Operational Command North reported that up to 20 Iskander-M missiles were fired from Belarus into Ukraine, with nine landing near Honcharivs’ke in the Chernihiv Oblast. The missiles landed in the forest west of the settlement.

Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was attacked again on Wednesday morning with reports of significant damage, aircraft losses and many causalities. An updated report stated 5 were killed and 25 wounded, including 13 military personnel. Missiles hit two hangars for training aircraft and there were cadets on the base.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
  2. Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.

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Kherson Cut Off – July 27, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 22 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,072 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Luhansk – Russian forces remain blocked at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Another attempt to advance on Verkhnokamyanske was made, and it was unsuccessful. Russian forces also attacked Hryhorivka, supported by airstrikes, but could not break through Ukrainian defenses.

Northeast Donetsk – Positional battles continued in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. On the morning of July 25, Ukrainian forces reported they had liberated Berestove. Late on July 25, it appeared Russian forces had recaptured the settlement for the second time Early on the morning of July 27, Ukrainian forces recaptured the town. The village is completely destroyed from months of fighting, and the T-1302 Highway is badly damaged.

Bakhmut – East of Soledar, Russian forces occupied Stryapivka temporarily. They likely attempted to extend too far into Soledar and were pushed back by Ukrainian forces. Fighting for control of the village continued.

Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group claimed to have fully secured Pokrovske, east of Bakhmut. Reports of continued fighting, artillery, and airstrikes indicate that gains have likely been overstated.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant and Luhanske on the evening of July 25. Ukrainian forces also withdrew from Novoluhanske to avoid becoming encircled. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group were confirmed to be on the power plant grounds. Russian forces attempted to advance from Roty to Semyirya to seal off retreating Ukrainian troops and were unsuccessful. Russian forces needed 62 days to advance 5.5 kilometers and secure the power plant.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Pavlivka and were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges from Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Ukrainian forces using High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacked the Antonovskiyy Bridge for the third time and the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge. The Antonovskiyy Bridge is severely damaged with significant structural damage. Russian state media reported the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge was damaged but did not provide further details. Russian forces in Kherson are now cut off from road and rail lines on the west side of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces have completed construction of a pontoon bridge adjacent to the destroyed Darivika Bridge over the Inhulets River. Due to poor operational security, it is likely the bridge will be a priority target in the coming days.

Operational Command South reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Bilohirka, indicating the settlement is still under Russian control. It was also reported that Andriivka [Kherson] and Lozove are liberated.

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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role and Kh-59 cruise missiles at Mykolaiv. Up to eight missiles struck an already destroyed railroad bridge over the Inhulets River,  one missile hit the port, and another hit a thermal plant.

Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives from July 25 to July 26 north or northeast of Kharkiv. Both sides fired artillery rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and fired from tanks.

Ukrainian forces used a Switchblade 300 kamikaze drone to attack a car at the Russian border checkpoint in Troebortnoe, north of Kharkiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims one person was killed, a Moldovian citizen, and two were wounded. Ukraine claims that two FSB agents were killed.

Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated. With reconnaissance in force, Russian forces attempted to advance on Chepil and suffered heavy losses.

There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces withdrew from Yatskivka and Studenok. We had previously reported that Russian troops had been pushed entirely out of Bohorodychne. Additionally, between July 21 and July 25, the bridge between Russian-controlled Yarmivka and Studenok was destroyed. In Russian-controlled Borova, a HIMARS strike hit the railroad yard, where Russian military equipment was staged for transport.

The Exiled Borova City Council reported that Russian troops have been withdrawing from the Izyum axis since July 22. Troops are reportedly moving north, and the field hospital for wounded Russian soldiers in Borova was closed.

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and rockets fired by MLRS struck the settlements of Esman, Krasnopillya, and Seredyna-Buda.

Chernihiv – Viacheslav Chaus, head of the Chernihiv Oblast State and Military Administration, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Leonivka and Hirsk.

Odesa – The Russian air force launched a massive attack on the village of Zatoka and the already destroyed Zatoka bridge. Up to 13 cruise missiles hit the village and the disabled span. The missile attack damaged or destroyed 155 buildings in the restive seaside resort town.

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
  2. Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.

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Port of Odesa hit by cruise missiles – Russia negotiated grain deal in bad faith – July 23, 2022 Ukraine update

[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,068 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.

Less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations to permit grain exports from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port, Port of Odesa, and Pivdennyi [South] Port, Kalibr cruise missiles launched by the Russian Black Sea fleet slammed into the Port of Odesa.

Russia and Ukraine did not sign an agreement between the two nations, instead signing separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations, which would permit Ukraine to export up to 20 million tons of grain over the next 120 days. The agreement did not specify that Russia could not attack Ukrainian ports explicitly. However, with continued attacks, civilian port operations with cargo ships entering and exiting will be impossible.

Insurance rates for cargo vessels operating in the Black Sea have already skyrocketed, with over a dozen commercial vessels seized, bombed, or hit by Russian missiles since February 25 and one bulk carrier striking a mine.

Luhansk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military head, reported that Ukraine still controls two settlements in the Luhansk Oblast.

Northeast Donetsk – Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Ivano-Daryivka through Spirne and were unsuccessful.

Russian forces fired artillery at civilians, civilian infrastructure, and Ukrainian military positions in Siversk, Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Spirne. The Russian air force also attacked Sprine.

Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.

Bakhmut – Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group made small advances into the southern part of Pokrovske. Limited fighting occurred near the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant.

Artillery was fired on Bakhmut, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Pokrovske, and Vesela Dolyna.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Vodyane from Vesele.

HIMARS rockets struck an ammunition depot within the machinery plant in Russian-controlled Horlivka, northeast of Donetsk. Secondary explosions thundered across the city as the ammunition stored in the factory started to cook off.

In the south Donbas, there were artillery exchanges from Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kherson – Russian state media claims Ukraine attacked the Antonovskiy Bridge for the third time, but there are no photos or videos to support the reports. Russian officials report they will not attempt to repair the bridge. Instead, they plan to build a pontoon bridge to the south. The bridge is reported to be severely damaged and will take too long to repair.

Ukraine, likely using HIMARS rockets, moderately damaged the Russian-controlled Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River. The bridge is a critical water crossing on the 140-kilometer detour route for Russian armor and military supplies after the Antonovskiy Bridge was damaged in attacks earlier this week. Without the crossing, a large region of Russia-controlled Kherson will be cutoff from overland supply routes

Multiple reports are quoting different sources that up to 2,000 Russian troops are partially encircled in Vysokopillya.

Presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych provided additional details during a television interview, which clarified the situation more. Arestovych reported that Russian forces are 75% encircled in Vysokopillya. On July 21, Russian forces attempted a breakout by heading south through the opening in the salient but were pushed back by Ukrainian artillery fire.

Arestovuch reported they are two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) trapped, with an estimated 1,000 troops blocked from leaving the town. He said that Ukraine would not offer a green corridor for evacuation but would likely demand their surrender.

Russian forces captured Oleksandrivka [Kherson] on the banks of the Dnipro River.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed the T-2207 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) south of Davydiv Brid.

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Zaporizhia – A video showed Russian tent barracks on the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar being attacked by kamikaze drones. The tents were located about 300 meters from the reactor blocks. Using a nuclear power plant for barracks and as a firebase to launch artillery and rockets represents a break from accepted military protocol, which considers nuclear power plants “no go” zones. Three Russian soldiers were killed and nine wounded in the attack. Additionally, a Grad Mulitple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which was parked between two cooling towers for the plant, was damaged in the attack. The video and pictures published after the strike show that no part of the nuclear power plant was damaged.

Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted a ground assault on Udy and there were skirmishes in Tsupivka and Dementiivka.

Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.

Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.

Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis. In Prydonetske, Ukrainian artillery destroyed an entire artillery company, including eight 152mm towed howitzers, ammunition, and command and control. Prydonetske is located east of Izyum in the area Russians call “Sherwood forest.”

Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyginsk and Krasnopil were shelled.

Odesa – Four Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Russian Black Sea Fleet targeted the Port of Odesa, with two striking the facility. Serhii Bratchuk, an Odesa Military administration spokesperson, said two missiles hit the port, and Ukraine’s air defense shot down two. The port suffered moderate damage, and a fire broke out, but the missiles missed the grain silos. The attack came less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to provide safe corridors for grain exports. The reaction from officials was swift and furious.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres “unequivocally” condemned the attack through a spokesperson.

“Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “This indicates only one thing: no matter what Russia says and promises, it will find ways how not to fulfill it. Geopolitically, with weapons, bloody or not, but it has several vectors, [this is] how it always acts.”

“That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added on Twitter. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said the bloc “strongly condemns” the attack.

People’s Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko wrote on Telegram, “There is a fire in the port of Odesa. Here is a grain corridor for you. These bastards are signing contracts with one hand and sending missiles with the other.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Nikolenko wrote, “It took less than 24 hours for the Russian Federation to launch a missile strike on the territory of the city of Odesa to question the agreement, and the promises it made to the UN and Turkey in the document signed yesterday in Istanbul.”

“The Russian missile is Vladimir Putin spitting in the face of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, who made a huge effort to reach the deal, and to whom Ukraine is grateful.”

The US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget A. Brink, called the Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa “outrageous,” writing, “Russia strikes the port city of Odesa less than 24 hours after signing an agreement to allow shipments of agricultural exports. The Kremlin continues to weaponize food. Russia must be held to account.”.

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Saturday that Russia claimed it had “nothing to do” with the strikes.

“It really concerned us that such an event happened after we signed the deal on grain shipments. We are disturbed as well. But we continue to fulfill our responsibilities about this agreement, and we also expressed in our meetings that we are in favor of the parties to continue their cooperation here calmly and patiently,” said Akar.

Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was hit with up to 13 Russian cruise missiles, causing significant damage, killing three and wounding nine. The attack was a joint operation between the Russian air force and navy, with five Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and eight Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet hitting the region. Cruise missiles also slammed into the railroad facilities at Ukrzaliznytsia. An electrical substation was also targeted, knocking out electrical power in parts of the oblast capital of Kropyvnytskyi.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
  2. Ground offensives by Russian forces have become fewer and smaller a week after the “operational pause” was declared over.
  3. It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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