All posts by David Obelcz

Here we go again, record-setting heatwave to sear Seattle a second time

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) The Seattle area is poised to break 100 degrees for the fourth time this summer, with a significant heatwave forecasted for the rest of the week. The National Weather Service issued an Excessive Heat Warning, including the Puget Sound Lowlands, from noon on Wednesday to 7 PM on Saturday.

A ridge of high pressure is building over the Pacific Ocean, bringing eyebrow-raising heat to our region, but not as hot as the record-shattering heatwave in June. Temperatures broke 100 degrees three days in a row earlier this year during a historic heatwave that shattered all-time temperature records from Alaska to California. 

In addition to the heat, Western Washington can expect some smoke to move into the region. High-pressure areas circulate counter-clockwise, which will pull smoke up from Southern Oregon and Northern California. Thursday and Friday are looking to be the worst days, but they won’t be like last year’s conditions. Most of it will be aloft, but some near-surface smoke is supported in the models. One other plot twist, the smoke is making Friday’s forecast pretty challenging.

Wednesday will start with partly cloudy skies and a low around 60 degrees F. in the Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville area. Temperatures will reach 87 to 90 degrees F. The usual hot spots of Totem Lake, Kingsgate, and the urban canyons of downtown Bellevue will likely get to the 90 degrees F. mark.

Wednesday night temperatures will drop to 62 to 64 degrees F. in our area. We’ll get a bit of offshore flow overnight, making it a bit uncomfortable, and pulling smoke into our region.

Thursday will see high temperatures from 95 to 98 degrees F. with increasingly hazy skies. The dewpoint will be around 60 degrees F., making it feel a little sticky. The air quality will decline to moderate with PM 2.5 in the 55 to 70 range. The record high is 96.

Thursday night will see high-altitude smoke continue to thicken, which will act as a blanket. Nighttime temperatures will be uncomfortable, with lows from 66 to 68 F. Winds will be near calm, with a slight offshore flow. As the air cools, some of that vertically integrated smoke will sink, and there isn’t much wind to circulate the air. The air quality will be moderate, with PM 2.5 in the 70 to 90 range.

Friday’s forecast is a tough call. The more smoke in the air, the more it will help lower high temperatures. The high-pressure area will continue to drive eastward, and the wind will shift to be more west-northwest during the day or early evening. High temperatures on Friday will be 97 to 100 degrees F. for the Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville area, which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal. If the smoke is thicker than the models indicate, shaving a few degrees from the high is possible. The air quality will be moderate, with PM 2.5 will be in the 55 to 70 range. I would expect to have the hazy orange glow we’ve seen a few times this year during the day. The record high is only 91 and is destined to be shattered.

Friday night won’t offer much relief again, but the smoke will begin to be pushed out. Lows will be 65 to 67 F. Air quality will be good to moderate, with PM 2.5 in the 40 to 60 range.

Saturday looks to be our fourth day in a row where the area will hit 90 degrees F. Highs will be 89 to 92, with clouds building in the afternoon as marine air pushes in from the coast. 

In June, we reached out to King County Health and other area experts to get advice on dealing with extreme heat. If you don’t have access to air conditioning, we can’t promise these tips will keep you from being miserable, but they will help keep you safe.

COVID cases are exploding in Washington as Delta variant spreads among the unvaccinated

[OLYMPIA, Wash] – (MTN) New cases of COVID are exploding as the latest data from the Washington State Department of Health indicates under testing, high positivity rates, and a dwindling number of ICU beds statewide. Analyzing population, vaccination rate, and COVID positive rates in Washington’s 39 counties shows that regions with lower vaccination rates are driving the increase in statewide numbers.

As of August 3, the 7-day rolling average of new coronavirus cases detected statewide was 1,788, up 510% from July 1. Hospitalization now exceeds the Third Wave April 27 peak. Washington state is down to 203 ICU beds statewide, and 17.4% of ICU patients are being treated for COVID. Persons under 65 now make up the majority of hospitalized patients.

Washington State Department of Health Dashboard for COVID patients in the ICU – August 5, 2021

Malcontent News pulled the vaccination data from the Washington State Department of Health COVID Dashboard and population by county data from the United States Census. County-by-county COVID positivity rates were taken from the Washington State Department of Health website, using the most recent data available through July 29.

Washington state rate of 100K newly diagnosed COVID cases based on a 14-day rolling average is 209.9 – data through July 29

In the 24 Washington counties where more than 10% of COVID tests are coming back positive, 44.6% of the total population is fully vaccinated. For the remaining 15 counties where positivity is below 9.9%, the rate is 59.7%

There are currently six Washington counties where COVID tests are over 20% positive. In those counties, only 41% are vaccinated.

The Kaiser Family Foundation released a study on Friday that shows just how effective COVID vaccines are. The study showed unvaccinated residents are 67 times more likely to test positive for COVID and 60 times more likely to require hospitalization. 

“Overall, the data showed that approximately 1 in 900 vaccinated people had breakthrough infections,” the report stated. “Odds that would be comparable to dying in a motorcycle crash, according to data from the National Safety Council.”

Statewide COVID positivity has almost tripled since June 29, 2021

The statewide data paints a troubling picture for the potential for COVID hospitalizations to increase. Hospitalizations are a trailing indicator. The increasing number of COVID cases being detected indicates that hospitalizations will rapidly rise within the next two to three weeks. In a KOMO News article, Prosser Memorial Hospital in Benton County has run out of beds and is sending patients out of state. 

There is some good news within the data. The spread of the Delta variant and increasing infections appears to be motivating unvaccinated Washingtonians to take action. Every Washington county showed a jump in those who have received their first COVID dose in the last two weeks.

King County Health and a number of medical facilities continue to provide COVID testing across King County.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

CountyPopulationFully VaccinatedPartial & Fully VaccinatedCOVID Positivity – 14 Day Moving Average Through July 29
San Juan16,78872.86%77.92%4.50%
Jefferson31,28568.18%71.24%7.60%
King2,195,50266.04%71.21%5.90%
Whatcom220,82158.03%63.48%6.20%
Snohomish798,80855.85%60.99%8.00%
Chelan76,22954.70%60.70%14.20%
Clallam75,39255.14%59.22%7.50%
Skagit125,61253.68%58.69%8.50%
Thurston279,71151.82%56.43%9.80%
Island82,86649.29%55.79%10.60%
Clark473,25250.50%55.78%18.20%
Okanogan41,84249.89%54.07%11.40%
Douglas42,02347.89%53.36%10.20%
Walla Walla60,63547.31%51.97%15.80%
Kitsap265,88247.82%51.35%8.70%
Mason63,80446.94%51.31%6.80%
Pacific21,68846.33%50.63%15.50%
Grays Harbor72,77945.81%50.62%7.30%
Cowlitz106,77845.90%50.06%24.70%
Pierce877,01344.96%49.93%13.30%
Spokane505,50544.43%48.99%12.90%
Yakima249,69742.76%48.50%15.10%
Kittitas45,89744.82%48.41%11.20%
Benton197,51841.55%46.75%26.50%
Wahkiakum4,26843.06%45.78%27.30%
Grant95,50240.66%44.69%8.90%
Klickitat21,72141.02%44.68%20.90%
Adams19,59440.04%44.52%9.60%
Lincoln10,57440.43%43.16%20.50%
Lewis78,14538.00%41.97%15.50%
Franklin92,00934.24%39.35%26.00%
Ferry7,57835.11%38.97%18.20%
Whitman49,21334.78%38.10%13.20%
Columbia3,99232.31%35.05%5.40%
Skamania11,75331.76%33.70%14.30%
Asotin22,42130.77%33.04%14.70%
Pend Oreille13,37729.87%32.79%10.80%
Stevens44,65526.46%29.01%13.50%
Garfield2,23024.84%28.21%0.00%
Percentage of the total population fully and partially vaccinated by county, with COVID positivity rate 14 day rolling average, through July 29, 2021

A smoky heatwave is on the horizon

[KIRKLAND, Wash] – (MTN) After a few brushes with smoke this summer which gave us orange skies and bright sunsets, forecast models are pointing to the region’s luck running out next week. After tying the second-longest dry streak in Seattle history and a cool wet weekend ahead, Seattle’s smoke season appears to be arriving next week.

A shift in the wind next week coupled with our second heatwave of 2021, will bring increasing amounts of beginning late Tuesday.

The week will begin pleasantly. Monday’s high will be around 80 degrees for the Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville area under partly cloudy skies. Monday night will provide good sleeping weather, with lows in the high 50s.

Tuesday will begin a warmup as winds shift and start pulling smoke from British Columbia into the lowlands. Temperatures will climb into the mid-80’s. Air quality should remain good with most of the smoke remaining aloft.

Wednesday air quality will start to decline and with smoke, increasing high temperatures get harder to forecast. The computer weather models don’t do a good job of considering significant surface or high altitude smoke. Temperatures will be 86 to 88 degrees, however, if smoke is thick aloft, they could moderate.

Thursday and Friday are still a bit too far out to predict accurately, but confidence is high that we will have our second hottest heatwave of the year. If it wasn’t for our historic event in June, this would be a bigger topic. Thursday looks to be in the mid-90s and Friday the high 90s – which would be record-breaking heat. There is a good chance we will have an offshore flow, which will pull smoke from eastern Washington over the Cascades.

If the region gets significant smoke similar to 2017, 2018, and 2020, the high temperatures could moderate by 4 to 6 degrees. The worse the air quality gets, the cooler it will get. But with computer models indicating 96 to 99 degrees without smoke for Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville on Friday, cool will be relative.

The best way to protect yourself during smoke season is to limit your time outdoors. A tight-fighting N95 mask provides the best protection. If you don’t have air conditioning, you can set up a clean room in your home with a portable air conditioner and a box fan with a furnace filter to make an air purifier. You can read more about preparing for the smoke season in this story from 2019.

UPDATED: Boil water order in Kirkland lifted after test results received

Updated: August 5, 2021, 4:20 PM

[KIRKLAND, Wash] – (MTN) The city of Kirkland announced that the boil water order impacting Market, Norkirk, and parts of Juanita, Totem Lake, downtown, and Houghton has been lifted.

City officials are advising you to run all cold water faucets for five minutes to flush your pipes before drinking or cooking with water from the tap. They also recommend flushing all appliances connected to the water line that produce potable water such as icemakers, refrigerator ice dispensers, and water softeners.

On Tuesday a water main break along Forbes Creek Drive caused a drop in water pressure for some residents and the boil order to be issued.

COVID cases surge 48% in King County as officials ask summer travelers to use caution

[SEATTLE, Wash] – (MTN) King County Health Officer Dr. Jeff Duchin announced that King County COVID cases have increased 48% in the last week as he asked for residents to apply caution during summer travel and mask up when indoors.

The Delta variant has grown to represent 86% of cases in King County with 83 cases per 100,000. Most cases are among the unvaccinated according to Dr. Duchin with residents 18 to 49 years old now the largest age group infected. Officials expect King County to move to high transmission per the CDC, in the next update.

In the last seven days, 62 people have been admitted into King County hospitals with COVID representing a three-fold increase. Currently, one King County resident is being admitted to a hospital with COVID every 2-1/2 hours and the average age of someone hospitalized with COVID has dropped 10 years since January 1.

“Regional hospitals are full and are concerned about being overwhelmed if there are more cases,” said Dr. Duchin, adding that hospitals are “very busy,” The challenge facing hospitals presently isn’t COVID. “One of the major challenges hospitals are facing is the inability to discharge patients who don’t need further hospitalization but can’t find a bed in a long-term care facility.” Dr. Duchin indicated that this was a statewide problem.

For the 30 day period from June 22 to July 21, 88% of COVID patients who were hospitalized and 87% of COVID-related deaths in King County were unvaccinated. COVID cases are, “half of the spring peak and one-quarter of the winter peak,” he added, and “vaccinate people are at much lower risk for hospitalization and death…compared to those unvaccinated.”

“Those unvaccinated are five times more likely to test positive for COVID, are 11 times more likely to be hospitalized,” Duchin added.

Concern over Delta appears to be moving some people with vaccine hesitancy to take action. There has been a 14% increase in people getting vaccinations from the low-point in mid-July. King County also has achieved 70% vaccination of residents 16 and older in all health districts, including South King County. Sixty-five percent of all residents, regardless of age are now vaccinated and 76% of residents 12 and old are fully vaccinated.

On the issue of breakthrough cases, Dr. Duchin said this. “Breakthrough cases do not meet mean vaccine failure and no vaccine is 100% protective. Vaccines prevent serious infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Less than one-tenth-of-one-percent of King County residents who are vaccinated have tested positive for COVID.”

With the start of school around the corner, Dr. Duchin deferred to the Washington State Department of Health, and the guidelines they released yesterday.

Officials stressed the continued need to wear masks in, “indoor public spaces like restaurants grocery stores gyms entertainment venues.” Additional guidance is that masks should be of a good quality, tight-fitting, and properly worn. Dr. Duchin mentioned the N95 Project as a trusted source for N95 masks. A check on the website showed that a 50 count box of United States manufactured N95 masks are available for $40.00.

With the peak of the summer vacation season here, Dr. Duchin asked for residents to consider their travel plans and the amount of risk they are taking. “The most important message is vaccines are the most effective way but not the only way to protect yourself. The most important single factor to reduce your risk of getting COVID is reduce your exposure risk.” The recommendation was to consider the current situation in the location you’re visiting and the kind of activities you have planned. Nationally, health officials are concerned about the looming Sturgis Motorcycle rally, and the 700,000 visitors expected to visit the town.

Dr. Duchin provided new guidance on who should get tested for COVID and when.

  • All people who experience COVID symptoms, regardless of vaccination status, should get tested
  • If you’re exposed to COVID you should get tested 3 to 5 days after regardless of your vaccination statusI
  • If you test positive, even if you’re asymptomatic, you need to isolate for 10 days

King County and a number of medical facilities continue to provide COVID testing across King County.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

COVID cases and hospitalizations are increasing dramatically in Washington

[OLYMPIA, Wash] – (MTN) The number of patients in Washington ICUs has surged to the highest levels since April, while the 7-day moving average of new cases is now at the highest level since May and rising rapidly. Just 36 days after King County ended the masked mandate, cases fueled by the highly contagious Delta variant are exploding.

On June 27, there were only 167 new COVID cases statewide. That number has climbed 748% in a month, with the 7-day moving average up to 1,251 cases on July 28, per the Washington Department of Health. In the most recently available data, 173 patients are in the ICU with COVID – which represents 14.3% of all available ICU beds in the state and is well above the 10% threshold.

Statewide, Washington is no longer achieving any metric that would indicate the spread of COVID remains under control.

According to the Washington State Department of Health data through July 26, 2021, COVID positivity has climbed to 6.5% statewide. The target is to be below 5%, and over 7% is an indication of growing community spread and under testing. Only the sparsely populated counties of San Juan, Garfield, and Columbia were under 5%. Asotin, Lincoln, Franklin, Walla Walla, Benton, Klickitat, Pacific, Cowlitz, and Skamania were over 15% positive – Benton county was over 25%. King County was at 4.3%.

Statewide acute care hospital beds continue to exceed guidelines. Statewide 82.2% of beds are supporting patients, while in King County, it is 84.6% of available beds. Of the 7,517 patients in the hospital, 647 have COVID. For ICUs, the numbers are more concerning. Statewide, 81.7% of all ICU beds are occupied, and in King County, it is 83.9%. Some area hospitals already have full ICUs, just as the state appears to be heading towards its biggest surge since the spring of 2021.

Although there is no specific cure for COVID, the medical community has a much better understanding of supportive therapies than they did at the pandemic’s beginning. Due to low positive outcomes, moving a patient to a ventilator is now considered a last line of defense.

Some of the strain on the state medical system in Washington is caused by out-of-state patients from Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Alaska. Hospitals in eastern Washington support trauma and the sickest COVID patients from Idaho and western Montana, while hospitals in Portland and Seattle take patients from Oregon. Trauma patients in Alaska are flown to Seattle once they are stabilized. This spring and summer have seen a dramatic increase in general trauma unrelated to COVID, accounting for the current high occupancy rate.

Locally, Evergreen Hospital was reporting 12 COVID patients in Kirkland and 5 in Monroe.

Hospitals are normally staffed to support 60% to 80% capacity, with the remainder aside to support short-term surges. An increasing number of specialists, doctors, and nurses are leaving the medical field as the stress of the last 18 months has taken an emotional and physical toll.

To a layperson, 80% to 85% occupancy may not seem like a challenge, but the primary issue is a lack of medical staff when rates get this high.

COVID deaths remain low in Washington but are a trailing indicator and don’t spike until 4 to 6 weeks after hospitalizations increase. The IHME current forecast indicates COVID hospitalizations will peak next month, and deaths will grow an additional 70,000 to 130,000 nationally by October 31. The same forecast models indicate that masks would dramatically lower that number.

The Delta variant is now the dominant strain in the United States. Last week, the CDC reported that the COVID variant that emerged in India is as transmissible as chickenpox]. A super spreader event in Massachusetts over the 4th of July holiday sickened more than 880 with 74% vaccinated. Five were hospitalized, including 4 vaccinated people. The data from that incident resulted in a renewed recommendation to wear masks.

The NIH reported that in June 2021, the most recent data available, over 99% of people who died of COVID in the United States were unvaccinated. A vast majority of vaccinated people who test positive for the Delta variant are asymptomatic or mildly sick. However, unlike previous variants, the vaccinated carry a high virus load and can spread the disease. In states hit harder by Delta, such as Tennessee, vaccination rates have significantly increased as the impact of COVID becomes more real.

King County, Washington is over 80% vaccinated, and Washington state is over 70%. The highest rates of positivity are in areas with low vaccination rates statewide. The FDA is expected to provide full approval to the Pfizer vaccine next month.

COVID vaccines are free for anyone over 12 years old, and no appointment is necessary at most locations. Lyft and Hopelink provide free transportation, and KinderCare, the Learning Care Group, and the YMCA offer free childcare during vaccination appointments or recuperation.

For information on getting a vaccination in King County, you can visit the King County Department of Public Health website.

After 50 days and 50 nights finally some rain in sight

[KIRKLAND, Wash] – (MTN) The last time it rained at Seattle-Tacoma Airport, where official weather records are kept, was June 15 – 50 days ago. Despite spotty showers and thunderstorms passing through the area yesterday, and some spot drizzle and showers two weeks ago, the rain gauge only got a trace in July. That is the fifth time Seattle has had a rainless month, and the third time in the last ten years. It looks like that is about to change.

If you found a casino to take a rain bet and you picked August 6, you might be a winner – our dry streak is likely to end after day 52. The longest dry streak in Seattle history was in 2017 when the region went 55 days without measurable rain at SeaTac.

Today will feel a big muggy like yesterday with high temperatures in the mid-80s for Kirkland-Bellevue-Woodinville. We have another chance for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms in the early evening hours. Last night’s weather helped push out the vertically integrated smoke, so it will be less hazy.

Thursday will also have a muggy feel, with dew points approaching 60 degrees and highs once again in the mid-80s. Thursday night and Friday morning are when we get our chance for rain.

A system carrying moisture is finally going to reach our region and bring with it widespread showers and much cooler air. The chance of rain peaks in the morning hours and slowly tapers off through the day. It will be cloudy, and the high temperatures will reach 70 degrees for our area.

The weekend is looking cloudy and cool with temperatures during the day around 70. Late Saturday and into Sunday morning looks like another chance for widespread rain showers in the region.

The long-range forecast shows a return to summer next week and drying out again.

Historic drought sends lakes to record lows throughout the West

[OROVILLE, Cali] – (MTN) Lake Oroville is less than two feet above an all-time low while Lake Shasta is at its fourth-lowest level on record as historic drought grips the western United States. Lake Shasta continues to be shrouded in smoke from the Lava Fire, where the water sits 145 feet below full pool. At 921.93 feet above Sea Level, Shasta sits at about the same level it was in January 2016. Lake Oroville is at 646.63 feet, just 19 inches higher than a record set in 1977.

At Oroville, operators need to continue water flowing to support fisheries and farmers in the San Joaquin Valley that rely on water from the Sacramento River for irrigation. The river is already dealing with record high temperatures that have devested wild salmon, and the intrusion of saltwater upstream adding pressure to the ecosystem and farmers.

[Best_Wordpress_Gallery id=”61″ gal_title=”Historic Drought in the Southwest”]

The historic low levels have forced over 140 houseboats out of the lake, and only one temporary gravel boat ramp remains operations around the entire lake. Even that ramp is in danger of closing as the level is expected to continue to drop another 25 to 30 feet by October.

The Edward Hyatt Pump-Generating Plant is capable of generating 132 megawatts of power during peak operation. Although up to 17,000 cubic feet of water can flow through the plant per second, approximately 6,000 cubic feet can be recovered and pumped back into the lake. The outflow is captured in additional reservoirs to be sent into the Sacramento River basin and support the needs of farmers to the south. Under extreme conditions, water is sent out to the Yuba River. The water level is expected to reach what hydrologists call deadpool, and the hydro plant may have to close for the first time in its 53 year history.

Lake Shasta, outside of Redding, sits below the headwaters of the Sacramento River and also generates hydroelectricity.

To the north outside of Klamath Falls, over 300 homes have had their private wells run dry, leaving residents without water for farming and personal consumption. Demand for water delivery and drilling companies has driven up costs and lead time, while some communities are providing water at pickup points. Ranchers and homeowners are looking to drill deeper, but after twenty-two years of mostly drought-filled years, there are no assurances those wells won’t run dry.

In the Klamath, a perfect storm of climate change, overutilization, treaties with first nations, and too many promises by government officials have come to head. Some have resorted to stealing water from the district, with complaints of illegal marijuana farms in the area. In this hardscrabble area with an undertone of independence and anti-government sentiment, other operators are also taking water pitting neighbor against neighbor.

Tule Lake on the Oregon-California border is divided into four regions. The most visible at the beginning of the road to Lava Beds National Monument has been allowed to drain dry. The soil deeply cracked and baking under the relentless heat. In the early 1900s, Tule Lake was significantly drained to create the farmland that surrounds the area today. Operators elected to let the most visible part of the lake complex run dry, in an attempt to convert it into a more productive marshland when and if the water returns. Area residents are skeptical and some are complaining about dust and irritation coming from the evaporating mud puddle.

To the north Upper Klamath Lake is the largest freshwater body in Oregon. The shallow lake has suffered from declining water quality for decades, both from natural and manmade influences. In 2001, water was cut off from farmers by the Bush Administration to protect native suckerfish that are on the endangered species list and protect area salmon per First Nations treaties. The impact was devastating to farmers who depend, and hold contracts for water rights.

Upper Klamath Lake is shallow – just 8 feet on average and a maximum depth of 50 feet. Although the lake currently sits at 100% of the normal level today, it has been steadily declining since 2019. Increasing temperatures, agricultural runoff, and naturally occurring chemicals turn the lake green with algae blooms.

Farmers aren’t just facing a shortage of water, they are also facing a shortage of forage and feed for livestock. The cost of hay has skyrocketed adding additional pressure on the battered finances for the region. Tariffs, a reduction in international shipping, depressed prices, have forced some to send animals to market early, getting only pennies on the dollar for their efforts while costs keep going up.

In Utah and Arizona, fear and frustration are mounting at Lake Powell. The lake is only inches from setting a new historic low, beating the record set in 2005. Frustrated locals are growing increasingly angry.

Glen Canyon Dam is the second-largest hydroelectric generating facility in the Southwest, only behind Hoover Dam outside of Las Vegas. The dam generates 1,320 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 400,000 homes. Rapid population expansion in Arizona and Utah has driven up demand as the water level continues to decline. A shutoff of the outflow through the dam would cut off a critical electrical source increasing rates, and potentially plunging communities into darkness. Officials believe the water level at Lake Powell will continue to drop until the spring of 2022 and is dependent on significant snowfall in the Rockies to stage any kind of recovery.

Misinformation on the Internet also abounds with complaints that water is flowing out of Lake Powell and Lake Mead unnecessarily and out to the ocean in California. Both lakes are on the Colorado River, which reaches the Gulf of California in Mexico, where international agreements also require water for the nation on the United States border.

In Walla Walla, Washington, city officials have had to tap one of seven wells to supplement the city water supply. Under normal conditions, water would come from Mill Creek, but extreme drought coupled with extreme demand has forced the city to tap the backup supply. There is enough water in the reserves to supply the city for “several years,” according to officials. The area is known for its wine production. Some growers are reporting up to 50% of their crops were lost in a late June heatwave, that saw temperatures soar to 110 to 115 degrees F. This is the second hit in a row for grape producers who saw some of their harvests destroyed last year by “smoke taint” a growing concern as increasing smoke from wildfires in Washington and Oregon start to creep into the region.

In a cruel twist, a heavier than normal monsoon season has sent floods sweeping through parts of Utah and Arizona. The land has become so baked it can’t absorb the water, so flash floods tear through parks, deserts, and communities offering little in the way of adding to the water supply. In Washington and parts of Oregon, it appears rain is coming next week, but lightning will be included in some areas, increasing wildfire risks in regions battered by the confluence of climate change, government policy, and overuse.

Eviction moratorium allowed to end putting 8-million households at risk

[KIRKLAND, Wash] – (MTN) Congress had no appetite to extended the eviction moratorium as the August recess began, allowing it to end at 12:01 AM on August 1. Now, up to 8-million households behind on rent or mortgages are facing an uncertain future.

When COVID-related shutdowns swept the country in March of 2020, U6 unemployment skyrocketed to 18.1%. Even before the public health and financial disaster, 40% of American families didn’t have $2,000 in emergency savings, let alone the 60 to 90 days of living expenses financial planners recommend. COVID wiped out entire industries such as hospitality, travel, and theater, and entertainment. For those in the service industry and gig economy, the slowdown has hit the hardest.

In response to the looming economic collapse, Congress passed the CARES Act, which included a one-time stimulus check of $1200 for some Americans, the Payroll Protection Program (PPP), and a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures. Despite trillions in aid, gaping holes remained that Main Street and American families have fallen through. Banks did not get guardrails on how to manage forbearances. Congress didn’t waive rent, only deferred it, and didn’t provide any financial support for small landlords. At one point, 12 million American households were $5000 or more behind on rent and 6 million households were facing foreclosure. The numbers have improved dramatically, dropping 50% for renters behind and 67% for mortgage holders.

Congressional leaders and the White House agreed on a second stimulus package in December 2020. President Trump initially did not sign the package, waiting until some benefits expired on December 26, before signing it the next day. The delay in signature created chaos for state unemployment systems. In March 2021, President Biden signed a third and almost certainly a final stimulus package, that extended the eviction moratorium another 30 days. 

Up to $4 trillion in cash awaits for the foreclosures and evictions to begin

At the start of 2020, private equity firms were sitting on $2.5 trillion in cash. They call it dry powder, money ready for investment where the quants feel the best ROI awaits. By some estimates, there is now as much as $4 trillion on the sidelines.

The United States needs at least 7 million more affordable housing units than what is available today. Although rents in cities like Seattle have declined by 20% in 2020, property values have skyrocketed. Additionally, just as the moratoriums are ending, rents are increasing across the United States, sometimes dramatically.

Private Equity, institutional investors, and banks are already moving in. In 2019, 6% of single-family homes sold went into the rental market. Today it is 20%, and 25% in cities such as Houston. Blackrock and JP Morgan have been buying up entire neighborhoods, up to 140 homes at a time. Large investors are extending all-cash offers 20% to 50% over the asking price in some areas. The plan is to convert these into rentals.

The ripple effect impacts first-time buyers as it constrains an already tight market that can’t compete with the offers. The price raises existing prices for sale, driving up property taxes, gentrifying neighborhoods. For some, living “van life,” in trailers in special communities, or couch surfing has become the fallback plan.

For millions of Americans who are still paying rent, there is a hidden crisis in 2021. As small landlords lose their properties, these renters will get eviction notices from hedge funds and banks, with no interest in working with them to make sure they don’t end up homeless.

According to the Aspen Institute, 80% of those facing foreclosure and eviction are Black, Indigenous, or Persons of Color (BIPOC). For white households in America, the average net worth is $170,000, while for Black families, it is $17,000. This inequity can’t be explained away by education, income, or indebtedness. For white Americans, once they become homeowners, five percent will fall back into renting. For Black Americans, the rate is double, at 10%. Black-owned small businesses had limited access to government aid programs, and by August, 40% of all Black-owned small companies had failed.

BIPOC communities are more likely to be “needless delinquent.” Analysts estimate 400,000 American homeowners are eligible for forbearances on their mortgage but are not aware or have been given misinformation from their lender. For some of these struggling homeowners, the damage isn’t foreclosure but the destruction of their credit score. A lower credit score impacts interest rates, insurance premiums and can even be a barrier to getting a job. 

What a $600 billion transfer in wealth looks like

Court systems from Boston to Seattle are bracing for a flood of forclosure and eviction filings. Here too, banks and large corporate property holders will benefit. With more legal resources and free cash to act, their cases will move to the front of the line. Mom and pop landlords will have to track their court cases independently, without a management company to oversee activity. Already facing a cash crunch, they’ll still have to pay court costs and lawyers’ fees, but that will only be the start of their problems.

The average American house has a value of $296,000. If 2 million households get foreclosed in 2021, that represents $600 billion in property dumped into the market. For the 4 million households facing eviction, the looming crisis is even worse. An eviction on a credit report is a barrier to permanent housing, requiring large deposits. They’re facing thousands in debt and potential judgments with interest they can’t pay. An eviction can be a scarlet letter for years, becoming a barrier to buying a car, getting a job, or buying a home.

Although it may appear to be a boom for landlords with 4 million families hitting a rental reset button, this isn’t the case. For many, the door to another rental will be closed. Landlords may evict a family who can’t pay the rent, only to find applications from families who were just evicted.

Millennials in high-paying office jobs fled the rental market in 2020 for the suburbs to escape COVID restrictions and get more space for a home office. Large investors can amortize their investment and use tax vehicles to lower their expenses. Mom and pop landlords will face a further reduction in their passive income, driving even more homes into sale and foreclosure.

Congress has no financial incentive to stop this nightmare. For both parties, lobbies, PACs, and dark money keep congresspersons and senators in their positions of power. For the 40% of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck, there is no lobby to bend representative ears and grease the palms.

The reality is if this financial disaster is not averted, the 6 million households on the brink could be the tip of the iceberg.

The West is burning – untold stories of two California towns devastated by the Dixie Fire

[INDIAN FALLS, Cali] – (MTN) Thick smoke hung heavy in the air creating sepia tones in the hamlet of Indian Falls, California, devastated by the Dixie Fire earlier this week. The tiny village, comprised of less than 10 streets showed the capricious nature and awesome power of nature. As of today, the Dixie Fire has grown to 244,888 acres with thunderstorms in the region whipping the fire into a new fury about 10 miles away, in Quincy, California.

A home would be untouched while the house next door was burned to ash – nothing appeared recoverable in the debris. For the home destroyed, only twisted corrugated metal roofing, half-molten appliances, the occasional chimney, and foundations remained. Fire hoses and couplings laid everywhere, telling a story of firefighters who made a stand until it was completely untenable, dropped hoses, and ran for their lives.

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In the debris, signs of past lives and lost legacies could be found. In what appeared to be the remains of a garage, two massive tool chests were partially buckled, a few drawers had been pushed open from the heat and deformation. Inside some tools were hopelessly damaged, others only blackened by the smoke and heat. At another location, the remains of exercise equipment told a story of a dedicated workout area now lost forever.

An SUV in the driveway left rivers of aluminum on the ground from where the rims and the engine block had liquified. The engine bay itself was empty, the block disappearing in the fire. Only around the dashboard was any molten auto glass left, the rest had vanished. At this house, the fire was over 1,600 degrees F. In what was a garden, everything was gone, except for a metal welcome sign standing only inches from a blackened tree.

On another street it appeared residents tried to save their cars by parking them on the road – it was to no avail. The utility poles had burned through dropping powerlines onto the cars. Only one vehicle survived – an ironically named Triumph TR7 convertible had light damage despite a power transformer landing inches from it, leaking all of its internal oil, that had also caught on fire. Just down the road were the remains of a Buick that had been consumed in the flames. Just feet away from a burned-out Corvette, a fiberglass boat with a canvas cover had not burned but had extensive heat damage on one side.

The air was thick with smoke, and beyond the sound of fire equipment on Route 89 passing by, there was an eerie, post-apocalyptic silence. Biting black flies flitted by. According to the Department of the Interior, smoke flies are attracted to forest fires because they need to lay their eggs in recently burned wood. The scene could be described as Biblical as light ash rained down.

One property was a series of three buildings. The firefighters saved two. On one building, the heat was so intense the front door melted, but the building survived. Five-gallon jugs of Therm Gel, some still full, were on the edge of the road. It was clear that officials prioritized homes over outbuildings. Only a couple of homeowners will be returning to everything untouched. A large home was unscathed, yet 30 feet away the remains of a station wagon told a story of heat approaching 1,600 degrees.

A resident had pulled some kayaks away from their house into a small glade, it was a lucky decision. The fire had burned every area around it, the ground blackened but the flames never reached two small watercraft. At another home, the remains of the kitchen were apparent by shattered pieces of dishes and crocks, and a few heavy metal pots that had survived. On the ground were stacks of rice paper-thin layers of ash, that disintegrated when you touched them.

The items that remained told the story of lost heirlooms and sudden evacuations. A pot still sat on a stove, almost all that remained in the charred foundations of a home. Laying on the back edge of the oven, a horseshoe that likely was hanging on the kitchen wall, that had dumped out all of its luck onto the lone pot.

In parts of Crescent Mills, California, the fire burned so hotly the forest floor and some of the tree snags were white. The ground was covered in a powdery ash a couple of inches deep. In these places, the fire would have been 2000 degrees F. At the base of a hill, the Crescent Hills Community Center laid in ruins. Two hoses were connected to an outside tap, one had melted and burned through. They told a story of a desperate attempt to save anything before the fire consumed the building. Yet with almost everything burned, a four-wheeler ATV under some trees appeared unscathed.

Up the hill on a dirt road, a small compound of cabins had survived. The fire had burned right to the edge of the property, charring the fence and a no trespassing sign. In the distance was a larger home, with an American flag waving in the wind. I rang a makeshift bell as a sign asked but no one answered. Deep holes were all around in the forest where stumps and roots had burned, collapsing the earth. Every step taken was methodical and planned. Underground, fires burning as high as 2000 degrees were coursing through the forest floor, and will continue to burn until the snows come this winter. One wrong step could result in horrible burns.

Further west near Twain, California, firefighter units from around the country were working collaboratively. Units from St. Helena, Beverly Hills, and Culver City were preparing for a potential defensive battle. The battalion commander from Culver City told me they were refilling the pumper truck from Beverly Hills with water, and setting up a defensive position in case they would be needed in the area. Less than a mile away, two fire units from Klamath Falls, Oregon, were also in position. Near the Twain General Store, fire trucks and other equipment moved through at a steady pace to take on diesel fuel and gasoline.

Along Highway 70 and Highway 89, red-stained trees and infrastructure showed where tankers had made airdrops of water and fire retardant earlier. There was no sound of aircraft today with the active fire 12 miles away to the east, and thick smoke making air operations challenging.

According to KPIX in San Francisco, firefighters were battling new downdrafts caused by thunderstorms increasing fire activity. Units are reinforcing tenuous fire lines in anticipation of a shift in the weather, that will bring with it extreme fire behavior.

As ash lightly falls from a silent orange sky, the air thick and stinging your eyes, an American flag waves over the burned-out remains of a house in Indian Falls. The long hot summer and years of drought continue, with the land waiting for the winter snows to bring final containment.