Eleven years ago, French-born Khalid Kaskou had a dream of bringing authentic French pastries to the Pacific Northwest. With his wife, Andrea Yao, Kaskou founded Belle Pastry nine years ago, and it has grown into a successful small business in old town Bellevue. The year brought COVID-related shutdowns, civil unrest, and economic hard times, but Kaskou met those challenges head-on. Going beyond keeping the doors open, he has kept his staff employed, aided other small businesses, and honored the first responder community.
andrea yao of belle pastry
When the first round of lockdowns happened, business dropped 70%. “To be honest, we were terrified and panicked a little bit,” said Yao, “but like any challenges in life, we wanted to meet the crisis head-on.” To date, the bakery has not closed a single day, not even during the civil unrest in Bellevue on May 31, and they have not had to reduce staff.
Belle Pastry had to adapt to a changing business climate and added services such as curb side pick-up.
“A couple of our customers reached out to us pretty early on during COVID, saying they wanted to buy pastries. They would like for us to deliver them to hospitals and clinics. That gave me the idea, why don’t we make it easier for people to participate in a pastry donation like this,” Yao explained. Since they started the program, over 3,300 pastries have flowed into the hands of hospitals and clinics throughout Puget Sound.
Open from 7 AM to 6 PM, Belle Pastry is more than baked goods, offering a full-service menu with lunch and dinner items. They recently started a program where individuals can donate to fight local food insecurity. In less than a week, they raised over $3,700 – enough to feed more than 200 people.
Belle Pastry offers a full menu with breakfast, lunch, and dinner options.
Kaskou’s support of the community goes beyond feeding tired and hungry mouths and includes feeding wearing souls. In May, Yao learned about the plight of Hmong flower growers, displaced from Pike Place Market due to COVID business restrictions. She had an idea. With her husband’s support, they opened up the area in front of their bakery to the Hmong Association of Washington to use as a pick-up point and a place to collect donations. Kaskou also helped Homemake Gardens of Carnation, Washington, expand their business to the eastside by allowing customers to pick up their purchases at Belle Pastry.
Prior to COVID-related shutdowns, Hmong flower growers sold their products at Pike Place Market in Seattle.
Another way Kaskou is helping is breaking down the barriers of social distancing for businesses and familes. Belle Pastry offers virtual parties, where each participant gets a cake or pastry delivered to their location. That way, in a virtual meeting, everyone can have their cake and literally eat it too.
You can order for yourself, make a donation for first responders and those in need via their website, or visit Belle Pastry at 10373 Main Street, Bellevue.
Kesha Rodgers started The Ally League with her friend Sara So to help promote and support Black businesses and dismantle systemic racism. The events of 2020, including the resurgent Black Lives Matter movement and the disproportionate impact of COVID on the BIPOC community, created opportunity and hardship. As working moms, Rodgers and So realized that people wanted to support the Black community but didn’t have the time or resources to engage actively. The mission of The Ally League is to promote and support Black-owned businesses while enabling allies to learn about the available products.
kesha rodgers and sara so interview
“We wanted to move people from performative things like changing your square black on Instagram,” said Rodgers. “What are things that can actively and meaningfully make a difference? [Things] that will engage people who are less likely, and maybe unable to protest so that anyone can be actively anti-racist.”
“We had so many ideas on how to help,” Rodgers continued, “but the fact that so many businesses are failing, a lot of it has to do with exposure. There is an assumption that if a product has a Black person on the front of it, it is only for Black people. There are so many products that if they were in someone’s hands, they would buy them over and over again.“
On November 29, The Ally League launched Black Box, two different priced boxes filled with products created by Black-owned businesses. Some featured items include Hunni Water, sparkling water infused with honey, AH Lip & Body Butter skincare products, Sukie’s Candles, and Boon Boona Coffee sourced from Africa. All boxes come with a “compassionist” key chain, so allies are reminded to be compassionate and open-minded. “We really want people to put the compassionist mindset front and center,” said So.
You can place your order for a $25 Mini Black Box or a $75 Premier Black Box at The Ally League. Although supplies are limited, So indicated they would do a second run in early 2021. As an additional service that supports the Black community, The Ally League can create custom and co-branded boxes with items from Black-owned companies for corporate giving and events.
Governor Inslee’s office has reached out to business and union leaders across the state by e-mail, requesting input on broader COVID-related restrictions starting after December 15. Washington state continues to add 2,000 or more COVID cases daily with no sign of slowing down, with a record number of people in hospitals and on ventilators. The state reported 31 deaths from COVID yesterday, the highest number since a summer spike.
Despite significant evidence that social distancing, limiting indoor interactions to essential needs, and wearing a mask is highly effective in slowing the spread, growing COVID fatigue works against these efforts. Hospital officials at a local, state, and federal level are concerned about wave upon wave of COVID patients as hospitalizations reach record levels. The looming issue isn’t beds or ventilators, but doctors, nurses, and specialists to staff the incoming waves of patients. In Washington state, Snohomish County reported that their 911 system is almost overwhelmed with calls for ambulances, and patients are arriving at hospitals in worse shape than the spring.
With the CARES Act set to expire on December 31, 2020, the spike in cases, hospitalizations, a looming shutdown couldn’t come at a worse time. Hundreds of thousands of Washingtonians will see their unemployment benefits end, and 172,000 families will face eviction or foreclosure without federal government intervention.
This is a breaking story and will be updated when more information is available.
La Niña, or the little girl, is a meteorological phenomenon where the Pacific Ocean off South America is colder than average. In a La Niña year, the jet stream, a river of fast-moving air that carries storms across the planet, passes over the Puget Sound area. Seattleites equate La Niña to endless dark rainy days, ice scrapers for the windshield, and snow swirling in the mountains passes. So far, in 2020, that hasn’t been the case.
Puget Sound will enjoy an unusual extended dry spell through the rest of the week. Thursday will be cloudy, with lowland fog settling over the region, with a few spots possibly getting drizzle. Friday through Sunday is looking mild, by December standards, and dry with plenty of sunshine. High temperatures could get into the mid-50s, while evening lows won’t dip below freezing for Seattle-Bellevue. If you’ve pushed off hanging holiday lights, you have a perfect weekend coming.
November was the last month of meteorological fall and delivered below-average rainfall to the region, with 5.27 inches at Seatac Airport. The average high temperature was a balmy 51 degrees, and Seatac only dropped below freezing once, for a couple of hours on November 29.
If 2020 is the winter of our discontent, weatherwise, it is off to a great start. However, a look into our crystal ball indicates that Tuesday could be interesting for a wind storm event, but it is still too far out to provide a firm forecast.
On Monday, Seattle Police Officer’s Guild President Mike Solan addressed area realtors during a webinar hosted by Seattle King County Realtors. During his presentation, Solan stated that race wasn’t an issue in King County and that Black Lives Matter activists were hurting Seattle property values.
This is so disturbing. I just joined my first Realtor meeting EVER and SPD police chief union is telling realtors that race is not issue. And that property values are being impacted by BLM activists pic.twitter.com/MT9eUJ5mB8
Despite Solan’s claims, a review of the Seattle King County Realtors Twitter feed paints a different picture. On November 6, 2020, the trade organization linked to a Windermere Economics Report that indicated the King County real estate market is in excellent condition. The report cited the high price of land as a factor restricting construction, stating “New construction permit activity is lagging due to expensive land prices and challenging regulatory fees. Builders are starting to adapt to meet demand by adjusting their products.“
For existing homes, the report indicates that a lack of homes for sale continues to create a challenging market, “Overall sales activity for single-family resale homes has increased despite low supply and home prices having [sic] more than doubled in eight years. 2020 sales are expected to exceed 2019 but are still being limited by supply.” In a forecast by Matthew Gardner in the same report, reasons cited for departure from the Seattle-Bellevue core included heading to “cheaper markets” and “renters…[turning] into buyers as more people who can work remotely can relocate further from work for cheaper homes.“
Further in the report, Gardner writes, “new and existing condos are troubling.” In a Seattle Times report in 2018, a study indicated that 88% of 2017 new residential construction in Seattle was high-density units – the same properties that have become undesirable due to COVID.
The COVID era has created a new generation of tech employees flush with cash. An Amazon employee who started in January of 2018 has seen their stock options grow 274%. For a Microsoft employee, the growth is 243%. With interest rates at historic lows, employees at both tech giants are no longer beholden to the South Lake Union or Redmond campuses.
According to Redfin, the median home price in King County has swollen to $690K, a 10.8% increase over last year. The average time on the market is 23 days, with the listing going for 1.6% over the asking price. According to Windermere, the median sale price in Seattle is $800K, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year.
In support of Gardner’s market observations, SeaTac, Kent, and Sammamish have seen home prices grow by 14.7% or more. Despite Solan’s claims that BLM activists are depressing Seattle home prices, Shoreline, Kirkland, Burien, Renton, Federal Way, and Snoqualmie also have seen prices grow by single digits. Gardner calls out Boeing specifically as an economic black spot. Boeing has recently made announcements that put the Renton factory’s future in question, creating uncertainly in the market.
In October, a survey of 400 area residents by Crosscut/Elway showed significant citizen support for Black Lives Matter demonstrations in Seattle and King County. Seventy-five-percent of Seattle respondents said they supported or mostly supported the protests. Another Redfin study indicated that 30% of Americans want to move from cities or changed plans to move to a city due to civil unrest. The same survey also revealed that 23% of respondents liked where they lived even more, despite the turmoil.
The Redfin story cites a condo that went for sale just a block from the former CHOP that even had windows smashed during the summer unrest. The unit sold in five days, beating the average time on the market by 18 days. Daryl Fairweather wrote, “For some families, the protests, curfews, and looting that have taken place in 2020 may have played a role in the decision to leave big-city life behind, but remote work and record-low mortgage rates were likely the driving factors.“
Unless Congress takes action in the next 29 days, a looming explosion of foreclosures and evictions will start this winter. In Washington state, over 200,000 families could lose their homes in 2021, creating another wave of wealth transfer. Despite Solan’s claims of Black Lives Matter impacting the real estate market, area real estate data, and studies from experts in the field don’t support his position.
Seattle King County Realtors did not respond to a request for a statement.
Approximately 75 to 100 protesters marched through the Capitol Hill area on Monday to recognize the 21st anniversary of the WTO riots. The march also marked 180 days of continuous protest in Seattle. The protesters, dressed mostly in black, gathered in Cal Anderson Park before moving over five miles.
A group of 75 to 100 protesters moves through Seattle Univesity.
With Lt. Diamond on LRAD, Seattle Police arrived within minutes of the marchers moving onto Broadway. The protest continued down Broadway before turning into Seattle University outside of Swedish Hospital. Seattle police declared that protesters were blocking hospital access over the LRAD system, while nearby SPD officers mocked COVID restrictions.
A couple of protesters broke windows at a Starbucks on 12th Ave, while the smell of fresh spray paint hung in the air. Shortly after, Seattle police bike officers started to follow the protest, while a squad of approximately ten officers moved on foot. Seattle police discussed targeted arrests as they closed in on the protesters.
At East Madison Street and 16th Ave, Seattle police took three into custody during the night’s first arrests. During the arrest, someone threw a glass bottle at officers. Using their LRAD, a warning was issued to disperse immediately. SPD claims that multiple bottles and rocks were thrown during the arrests on the Seattle Police Twitter feed. Video taken during the arrests by numerous journalists and streamers do not support their version of events.
Seattle police arrest three at Madison and 16th during the WTO anniversary march.
The protest snaked through residential areas that Seattle police were pushing the protest group through. Despite moving protesters into neighborhoods, the Seattle police were issuing “apologies” via LRAD for the disruption. Protesters moved dumpsters, construction barricades, rental scooters, and recycle bins into the road to slow SPD officers’ advance.
During the march, Seattle police deployed pepper spray on several protesters, who were seen being treated by medics. There was an additional arrest, however, it was a couple of blocks from the leading protest group. The Seattle Police blotter states the arrest was for property damage.
The protest moved north toward Volunteer Park, passing Uncle Ike’s on 15th Ave East. The group paused only briefly at the controversial cannabis store, where there were sounds of windows being struck. There did not appear to be any broken windows at the store, and the Seattle Police blotter made no mention of any damage.
Seattle Police officers caught up to the protest group and declared the march an unlawful assembly. As the group moved north, SPD maintained less than a 20-foot gap between themselves and the protesters, often only being a few feet away.
During this push by Seattle Police, multiple protesters claim an officer used a racial slur against protesters, calling one of them a n****r. During this same time, we could hear Seattle Police officers disparaging Seattle Public Schools and COVID restrictions in response to a protester chant to the tune of A-B-C-D.
SPD bike officers advance on protesters during the WTO anniversary march.
Protesters took a return route to Cal Anderson Park, with significant amounts of graffiti in their wake. Seattle police made one more charge into the protest group, grabbing one individual on the sidewalk and immediately releasing them back into the protest group. The final charge appeared to be an act of unprovoked aggression by officers as the protest was winding down.
Police assets involved included the previously mentioned LRAD system, two vans, several police vehicles, and the SWAT team Bearcat. Protesters returned to Cal Anderson Park around 10:30 PM, and Seattle Police disengaged the protesters.
Sunday saw another air travel record in the United States, with 1.18 million passengers going through TSA checkpoints on Sunday. It was the highest number to go through security since March 16, 2020, and only 8,100 short of the mid-March milestone. Over 13 times more passengers flew on Sunday versus April 14, 2020, basement, when COVID infections numbers were near their spring peak.
In stark contrast, 90,000 Americans are in the hospital with COVID and 6,000 on ventilators, both records since the first infection in January 2020. In some parts of the country, infection rates are the worst recorded. In Denver, a group of 10 or more had a 53% chance of at least one person being infected. In Bismark, North Dakota, it was a 92% chance, while Miami and Seattle had a 26% chance.
Regionally on the roads, traffic was relatively light across the passes and not choked with holiday travelers. Stevens Pass had an advisory for traction tires, but there were no significant issues. Blewitt and Snoqualmie Passes were clear and dry with free-flowing traffic.
In Chelan and Grant County, where the worst infection rates are in the state, mask compliance was low, particularly in Chelan. Further to the north in Okanagon County, mask compliance was high, particularly in Twisp despite the numerous Culp signs.
The CDC is advising anyone who traveled over the extended holiday weekend to get a COVID test. However, many states are still struggling with adequate test kits, lab facilities, and staff. In Washington state, people have been advised not to get a test unless they are symptomatic, with wait times stretching into the hours.
Officials and data scientists have warned that a drop in overall test numbers from Thursday to Sunday will create a false dip in positive test numbers. Many test facilities were closed during part of the long weekend, and labs are dealing with a backlog.
Angela Rozmyn believes in taking action whenever she sees a community in need. As part of the Planning Commission for Kirkland, she is acutely aware of the challenges that businesses and families are facing due to the pandemic. Inspired by a program the city of Palmdale, California implemented, she decided to donate a single gift card to a local restaurant and a family in need. In less than 24 hours, her simple gesture generated an outpouring of support.
When Rozmyn isn’t blogging, working, serving on the Planning Commission, or with her family, she is an administrator for the Eastside Restaurant Support (Kirkland, Redmond, Bellevue, and Surrounding) Facebook group. “I would see comments in the support group of I would love to go to this restaurant, but money is tight,” she explained. “A city in California was doing a thing where you take a picture of your takeout, and you could win a $25 gift card. So I thought, I’m just going to give away a $50 gift card to help a local restaurant and people struggling in the community.”
That simple gesture quickly grew into something bigger. Within an hour, 20 people had jumped in, making the same offer. “When I saw the responses, I thought, wow, maybe we can cover everyone who needs a gift card.” In 24 hours, $4000 flowed in. It would be enough to support 80 families while keeping that money in the local business community. “We were able to provide a gift card to every family that asked.” It’s not over, as donations continue to come in with community members wanting to start a program for holiday season meals and a toy drive.
Restaurants across the United States have been hard hit due to restrictions to curb the spread of COVID. Across the country, dining-in restrictions, limited alcohol sales, and economic recession have hit the hospitality industry hard. Locally, a new ban on indoor dining due to a record-shattering increase in COVID infections came just as seasonal rains arrived, making outdoor seating a challenge. At the same time, support organizations like food banks and homelessness prevention services have been overwhelmed with the number of people in need.
When asked, Rozmyn explained how her small gesture broke through giving fatigue. “What made this so successful is people were already in a group to support local restaurants. So their heads are already in a space to support our struggling eateries.”
Families get to decide what restaurant they want to support. Supported businesses aren’t limited to the eastside, with a few requests for restaurants in the south sound and one in West Seattle.
People have continued to donate, inspiring a coming second round of restaurant support. If you would like to help, you can Venmo @Angela-Rozmyn with the comment, Eastside Restaurant Support.
On September 7, 2020, 300 to 400 people marched from the International District to the Seattle Police Officer’s Guild (SPOG) offices in SODO. At 6:20 PM, Seattle Police took direct action against a mostly peaceful group, rushing in with over 100 officers in two directions. When the smoke cleared, Seattle Police and the Seattle Police Officer’s Guild claimed they moved on the group due to intelligence that an individual had Molotov cocktails. They advanced to arrest that person. Our investigation indicates the official version of the events that happened that day doesn’t stand up.
From September to November, both SPOG and SPD have released videos of events during the protest. The videos they released included security cameras, body cameras, and scraped content from journalists. We analyzed their video in combination with over nine hours of video Malcontent News captured on September 7.
The Seattle Police Officer’s Guild released a video on September 11, 2020, which highlighted an individual carrying a Corona beer box as the known suspect with the Molotov cocktails. SPOG accused the person of wanting to burn down their offices and that it was the march’s broader purpose. SPOG, in their video, states that was the reason police advanced on protesters.
In November, the Seattle Police Department released over an hour of security camera and officer’s body camera video from September 7. The SPD video also claims that police moved in on protesters due to an individual with Molotov cocktails. An SPD statement reads, “During the march, SPD received information that a suspect in the crowd had and was readying Molotov cocktails. members of the crowd began to gather outside SPOG, gathering and placing combustible material in front of the fence.“
We interviewed protesters from that day, and one of our cameras captured a person throwing trash over the fence. Protesters told us they had picked up trash during the march from the International District and had planned to toss the garbage over the fence but had no plan or intent on lighting it on fire. SPD’s own story of a lone operative with Molotov cocktails morphs into a coordinated effort as their statement continues. “Others in the crowd began to take those same materials, throwing them over the fence in a coordinated effort.“
Our video analysis shows that the man with the Corona beer box walks past the people leaving trash bags at the northeast corner of the SPOG fence. He continues to walk southbound past the SPOG building and into the main body of protesters adjacent to the SPOG parking lot. Just as Seattle Police move in, an individual throws one bag of garbage over the fence. The video doesn’t support the premise of a coordinated effort with the trash, nor coordination with the man carrying the box.
An investigation that reviewed the officer’s statements, SPOG press release, videos, and the SPD released videos created more questions than providing answers. Our review shows that the Seattle Police had multiple opportunities to arrest the person allegedly with Molotov cocktails, yet took no action.
Video recorded by journalists on September 7 shows the person of interest standing mere feet from officers, directing protesters to head north. Seattle Police Department body camera video shows the individual in front of multiple Seattle police and SWAT officers. Another video shows the person of interest about an hour later, marching back with protesters.
The man holding the Corona beer box has been a point of controversy from all sides since September 7. Some people in the protest community have told us he is a “stupid protester” operating independently. Others have accused the individual of being part of the extreme-right, there to discredit the movement. Some suggested the individual seen later in videos is a different person from the one carrying the Corona beer box.
Our analysis discovered that the man carrying the Corona beer box had a red shirt under his darker shirt. A camera caught a glimpse of the red shirt sticking out from under his sweat jacket about 30 minutes before the protest group arrived at SPOG headquarters. SPD body camera video, which shows SPD officers ignoring the man, also shows the same red undershirt.
Part of SPD’s claims is that on September 7, people inside SPOG headquarters smelled gasoline. The claim being, they could smell the Molotov cocktails outside. On the same day, the SPD Twitter released a photo of the opened beer box showing the contents inside. However, the bottles appear to be empty or near empty, and nothing in the contents has the color of gasoline.
SPD’s statement from the day declares, “Lt. Brooks ordered the arrest of the suspect with the Molotov cocktail and at 6:20 PM SPD made its first contact with the crowd…” The wording is essential. Like the SPOG video of September 11, the SPD statement establishes they knew who the suspect was. That person is the man carrying the Corona beer box. Not only is he never captured, he stands feet away from police on multiple occasions where arresting him would have been safe for officers.
Our investigation concludes that the Seattle Police Department’s claim that they advanced on protesters to arrest an individual they knew to have Molotov cocktails is highly questionable. The Seattle Police Officer’s Guild identifies the person in their video on September 11. In the videos released by the Seattle Police Department in November, the same individual goes ignored in their analysis.
Washington state officials reported that 80 people were admitted to hospitals with COVID-19 yesterday. Detected cases have spiraled to over 2,000 a day, a seven-day moving average. Lines to get tested now stretch for a mile at some locations. Officials have started appealing that only symptomatic individuals get tested. The surge in hospitalization has begun. In a few weeks, the number of fatalities will also begin to increase.
As of this writing, 6.7% of people with a positive test will end up in the hospital, according to the Washington State Department of Health COVID-19 Dashboard. Of those who end up in the hospital, 26.52% will die. We are approaching hospital utilization numbers that are rivaling March-April of 2020 now.
King County is reporting that available resources remain adequate, as does Clark County. In our backyard, Evergreen Hospital has seen the number of hospital patients decline in the last week. Snohomish County is reaching capacity, as are many hospitals in the eastern part of Washington.
The problem isn’t beds; the problem is staff and PPE. The strategic reserve for PPE remains woefully under-supplied despite nine months to prepare. At hospitals, nursing homes, and doctor offices across the country, staff continues to reuse “disposable” PPE items. In Washington, doctors and staff went on strike at MultiCare due to a lack of PPE and officials ignoring even basic safety protocols. Auburn MultiCare, Everett Providence, and Harborview have all had outbreaks within the hospitals and among staff.
Math
The state is adding more than 2,000 cases a day (roughly) 7-day moving average.
Two-thousands cases with 6.7% being hospitalized equal 134 people landing in hospital beds every day in the coming weeks. Hospitalization doesn’t happen instantly but lag one to three weeks behind a detected case. We won’t see the peak of hospitalizations for the cases detected this week for another 7 to 21 days.
Twenty-six-and-a-half percent of hospitalized patients will end up dying from COVID, based on the Washington State Department of Health numbers. That’s 36 people a day when you reach 2,000 detected cases a day. The spike in deaths takes two to six weeks after hospitalization.
Washington state COVID cases have exploded in November. For those hospitalized, 26.5%
A new strain
The primary strain of COVID-19 spreading across the United States is more contagious than the initial strain that arrived here in January. This strain is also apparently less lethal, but it still makes patients extremely sick. Additionally, our understanding of coronavirus has improved. Doctors now approach treatment through the lens of a clotting and inflammation disease, not a pulmonary disease.
While helping improve survivability, it is a double-edged sword. Those who land in the hospital are experiencing prolonged hospitalization, taking up more resources (beds, PPE, staff, medication, equipment) than patients in March.
For the medical community, the smallest mistake around PPE can result in an infection. Those who work with intubated patients face the most dangerous conditions when it comes to exposure.
An anonymous but respected source reported an alarming number of critical care patients on ECMO in Puget Sound. ECMO is the last defense line for the sickest COVID patients, where the lungs have failed, and a machine must replace their function. ECMO is reserved for individuals who were in peak condition before being infected and have some chance of a meaningful recovery.
A worse spike than April
In another two to three weeks, the Washington state hospitals will likely be overwhelmed when you do the math. Complicating things will be Idaho, Montana, and Alaska wanting to fly the sickest of their patients into our region, as they have even fewer resources. By Christmas, the number dying in this state will exceed our worst numbers in March-April. The IHME forecasts that by March 1, 2021, 6,015 Washingtonians will die of COVID, and we’ll experience peak deaths in mid-January.
Business leaders at the major hospital networks are concerned that if capacity is reached, government officials will mandate an end to all elective procedures. COVID taught us that hospitals receive most of their revenue from treating people, not curing people. When treatment programs and elective surgeries were canceled earlier in the year, hospitals faced massive budget shortfalls and were forced into layoffs. All while experiencing a massive increase in costs.
In Washington, hospitals are already deferring some procedures to keep bed utilization lower. So on paper, things look good. The reality is the people being turned away are not people needing hernia repairs, tonsils removed, or cataract surgery. People being turned away right now need heart valve replacements or, in some cases, cancer surgeries.
Unknowns add complexity to treating non-COVID patients
People need to realize that if you are rushed to the emergency room due to a car accident, the staff must assume you are COVID-19 positive when you arrive. Rapid tests are woefully inaccurate. A nasal swab test can take 12 to 24 hours to come back in a hospital setting, under ideal conditions. Until your test results come back, the staff must follow donning and doffing procedures and use up PPE. A doctor wearing a puffer helmet treating an emergency room patient can’t go and examine another patient until they remove the equipment. For anesthesia, a doctor might move between three different rooms under normal circumstances. With COVID, they are anchored to one room if they don’t know the patient’s COVID status. Now another doctor has to be called in to support any other patients. This is the same for nurses, technicians, and specialists.
The coming crisis
When you add it up:
2,000 cases a day results in
134 new hospitalizations in one to three weeks
36 deaths from that group in three to six weeks
Hospitalization lasts 10 days conservatively
Equals 1,340 COVID patients in the hospital, conservatively
26% of those patients critically ill
That’s conservative math based on the existing information we have. It’s too late (which isn’t to say we should do nothing) to stop this COVID train.
The grim reality is you don’t want to get sick around the third week of December. To get ill with COVID around that time indicates your exposure was around Thanksgiving. You may find yourself or a loved one in a rationed care situation. When care is rationed, patients are given a score based on their age, comorbidities, condition, and how much lifespan they have left. If you don’t get a good enough score, your treatment may be a morphine drip to provide a comfortable end of life. When care is rationed, you or a loved one could end up in the hospital for something non-COVID related, such as an accident, stroke, or heart attack. The same formula will be applied, not because of a lack of beds, but a lack of staff.
They are doing rationed care in Utah, parts of Texas, and North Dakota. In North Dakota, COVID positive medical personnel who are asymptomatic can continue to work because of staffing shortages. When staff who have coronavirus continue to work, they endanger the non-infected team working with them, creating a cycle of shrinking resources. Idaho is on the brink of rationing care, with no political will to slow the surge in their state. Part of the plan in Idaho is to send their patients to Seattle and Portland, Oregon, straining resources further.
There is no way to prevent the coming tidal wave of patients for Washington state, but we can avoid going to rationed care as we inch closer to the end of the year. Everyone needs to choose very wisely in the next 24 hours.
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