All posts by David Obelcz

Local, Safety

Washingtonians panic buy in stores as COVID restrictions loom

It was deja vu for Washingtonians who flocked to grocery and department stores to buy – everything – with looming COVID restrictions announced on Sunday. Even before Jay Inslee made his 11 AM announcement, lines stretched for more than a block outside Costcos throughout the state. Untrue rumors that grocery stores would be ordered to shut down drove dazed residents into a buying frenzy. Once again, toilet paper and paper towels appeared to be the critical supplies needed to survive a pandemic.

On Sunday, restrictions announced would require all retail stores to limit their capacity to 25%, including grocery stores. Even in the hardest-hit regions of the world, a government shutdown of grocery stores has not happened. Government officials and industry experts appealed to people not to panic-buy, stating the supply chain was strong. Shoppers found empty isles across the state, with some shouting and pushing matches over paper products reported at some stores.

Washington is earthquake country, and residents should have a 7 to 14 day supply of required goods on hand at all times. Emergency preparedness experts chimed in, stating that properly prepared homes would not have to buy any goods to prepare for potential disruptions if they have a good earthquake plan already in place.

Terra Firma

Hurricane Iota targets Nicaragua

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues unabated as the historic 30th named storm, Iota, targets Nicaragua and Honduras, only two weeks after Eta slammed the same region. In the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Iota is 235 miles east-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios packing 105 MPH winds as a Category II storm. Forecasters expect Iota to pass over Isla de Providencia, Columbia overnight.

Forecast models predict that Iota will make landfall on Monday night in Nicaragua as a Category IV storm with 140 MPH winds. Hurricane Warnings extended from Isla de Providencia, most of the Caribbean coastline of Nicaragua and Honduras. Models indicate Iota will drift across Central America before dissipating over El Salvador by the middle of the week.

Many of the forecast models for 2020 have been conservative. When Eta struck Nicaragua, it was forecasted to arrive as a Category III storm. Instead, it roared ashore with 150 MPH winds as a strong Category IV storm. Two weeks ago, over 150 fatalities were reported from Mexico to Belize from flooding and mudslides. The Nicaraguan coastline residents are still waiting for aid from the Ortega-led government with their lives and homes shattered.

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season has been unprecedented, producing 30 named storms so far, with 12 systems making landfall on the United States. Iota is not expected to be a threat to the United States or be a rare “cross-over” storm that reforms with tropical characteristics when it reaches the Pacific.

Breaking News, Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

[Updated] Washington state announces new restrictions as COVID cases explode

Update: 12:05 PM – the announced restrictions will be in place for four weeks.

Governor Inslee of Washington state will be holding a press conference at 11 AM to announce new restrictions on activities and businesses due to a dramatic increase in COVID cases. The sweeping restrictions will prohibit indoor dining, reduce capacity at all retail locations including grocery stores to 25%, and requires entertainment venues such as movie theaters and zoos to close.

Washington state has seen a record number of new cases, exceeding 2,000 a day, while hospitalizations have started to increase. Late last week, UW Medicine announced it was implementing its surge plan which includes adding hospital beds and staff while dialing back on elective surgeries and in-office visits.

Government officials in Idaho have made things more complicated for Washington state. While Idaho does not havee a mask requirement, the hospitals in the panhandle region have become overwhelmed, and the state has started sending its COVID patients to Seattle and Portland, Oregon. In eastern Washington and Clark County in southwestern Washington, positive test rates range from 10.4% in Clark County to 37.7% in Whitman County. Less than 5% positive is ideal, and anything over 10% indicates under-testing and widespread transmission. Anything over 20% is considered a critical situation.

The state of Washington has released the following statement.

In order to slow the spread of rapidly increasing COVID cases in our state, and ensure that hospitals and medical systems are not overwhelmed, we are taking the very difficult but necessary steps to protect public health.

We recognize this will cause financial hardship for many businesses and the governor and staff are exploring ways to mitigate the impacts.

These rules are effective Monday, Nov. 16th at midnight (12:01 AM Tuesday), except for where noted as in the case of restaurants (detailed below).

If the activity is not listed, it should follow its current guidance. All K-12/higher education and childcare are exempt from the new restrictions and will follow current guidance. These restrictions do not apply to courts and court-related proceedings.

  • Indoor social gatherings with people from outside your household are prohibited.
  • Outdoor social gatherings should be limited to 5 people from outside your household.
  • Restaurants and bars are closed for indoor service. Outdoor dining and to-go service are permitted. Outdoor dining must follow the outdoor dining restriction. Table size limited to 5 for outdoor dining. These restaurant restrictions go into effect at 12:01 AM Wednesday, November 18.
  • Fitness facilities and gyms are closed for indoor operations. Outdoor fitness classes may still occur but they are limited by the outdoor gathering restriction listed above. Drop off childcare closed.
  • Bowling Centers are closed for indoor service.
  • Miscellaneous Venues: All retail activities and business meetings are prohibited. Only professional training and testing that cannot be performed remotely is allowed. Occupancy in each meeting room is limited to 25% or 100 people, whichever is fewer.
  • Movie Theaters are closed for indoor service. Drive-in movie theaters are still permitted and must follow the current drive-in movie theater guidance.
  • Museums/Zoos/Aquariums are closed for indoor service.
  • Real Estate open houses are prohibited.
  • Wedding and Funeral receptions are prohibited. Ceremonies are limited to no more than 30 people.
  • In-store retail limited to 25% indoor occupancy and must close any common/congregate non-food-related seating areas. Food court indoor seating is closed.
  • Religious services limited to 25% indoor occupancy no more than 200 people, whichever is fewer. No choir, band, or ensemble shall perform during the service. Soloists are permitted to perform. Facial coverings must be worn at all times by congregation members and no congregational singing.
  • Professional Services are required to mandate that employees work from home when possible, and to close offices to the public. If they remain open, occupancy is restricted to 25%.
  • Personal services are limited to 25% of maximum occupancy.
  • Long-term Care Facilities outdoor visits only. Exceptions can be made for essential support person and end-of-life care.
  • Youth (school and non-school) and adult sporting activities are limited to outdoor-only for intrateam practices, masks required for athletes.

A household is defined as the individuals residing in the same domicile.

Breaking News, Health and Lifestyle, Local

UW Medicine implements “surge plan” due to growing COVID-19 cases

UW Medicine announced they are implementing surge plans due to a dramatic increase in COVID-19 cases in Washington state. In a publicly available memo, UW Medicine indicated that the rapidly growing cases are starting to impact the patient load within the hospital system.

Part of the surge plan includes increasing resources in its Emergency Operations Center to support the increase of bed capacity, staffing, and supplies. The memo goes on to hint that there will be a reduction in in-office visits and a shift to more telemedicine appointments to balance patient and healthcare provider safety.

Additionally, although no specific information was provided, prioritization of surgical procedures will be evaluated. The memo went on to indicate that emergency and critical surgeries would continue.

The memo is available online.

Breaking News, Health and Lifestyle, Local

Governor Inslee to address Washington state 5:30 PM today

Governor Jay Inslee will address Washingtonians at 5:30 PM as the numbers for COVID-19 infections in the state of Washington accelerate. According to the Washington Department of Health, COVID-19 hospitalizations have increased 22% from November 3 to November 9, the most recent data available. Additionally, the rate of newly diagnosed cases, a gauge on how quickly COVID-19 is spreading, is near the highest levels recorded for the state, 145.2 per 100K.

Hospital capacity statewide remains positive, but the number of COVID patients is increasing, as well as those critically ill. ICU availability also remains. Idaho has been sending their sickest patients to Western Washington, with the state outstripping their hospital capacity. Idaho does not have a mandatory mask requirement and officials in the panhandle, where the infections are the worst, recently lifted pubic health restrictions.

Rural counties and counties where mask compliance is lower, or outright resisted is seeing some of the worst numbers. Positive test rates in Whitman County are 37.3%, Adams County 22.1%, Spokane County12.4%.and Clark County along the Oregon border is 10.4%.

This is a breaking news story and we will provide more information as it becomes available.

Local, Weather

Coming storm to bring less wind and rain, but a lot of mountain snow

French Toast Emergency for minor wind event – we give this system 3 squirts of syrups out of 10.

Puget Sound is set for a windy and wet end to the week but won’t experience a devastating windstorm. The one-two punch coming to Puget Sound is on the right track and carrying plenty of moisture but won’t reach the intensity models predicted earlier in the week.

Computer models have reached an agreement that the storm will track north of Seattle and cross Vancouver Island in British Columbia. Had the storm intensity models delivered, we would be looking at a major event that would rival November 2006. Computer models now forecast barometric pressure in the 990s, which is a garden variety November storm. However, this system is bringing one surprise to the Cascades – snow.

On Thursday, the rain will start for the lowlands, and the temperature will struggle to get out of the mid-40s. For the Cascades, the snow level will be 2,500 to 3,000 feet. The forecast calls for 8 to 16 inches of snow at all the passes, and Winter Storm Warnings are already posted.

Friday is the main event. The storm system that will bring some wind to the region is stuck in the Pacific and still almost a thousand miles away, but will roar into the area late Friday afternoon. The circulation center will pass over southern British Columbia, which puts the Puget Sound lowlands on the “bad” side. Computer models put us right on the line for a Wind Advisory, but I’m not convinced. Wind gusts to 40 MPH are possible, and that’s enough to knock out power in the typical trouble spots such as Finn Hill in Kirkland.

Once again, the Cascades and mountain passes are looking at a major snow event. Snow levels to rise to 3,000 to 3,500 feet, with another foot or more of snow possible. The Winter Storm Warnings posted will almost certainly be extended (or replaced by a Winter Weather Advisory and then upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning)

The rest of the weekend looks unpleasant but typical for November. Saturday will bring showers, which will let up in the afternoon. Sunday and Monday are looking to be total washouts, and for now, the computer models are showing rain for the next ten days.

National, Terra Firma

[Updated] Meandering Hurricane Eta targets Florida

UPDATE: Eta has weakened to a tropical storm again, with winds of 70 MPH. The center of Eta is 85 miles southwest of Tampa Florida, moving north at 10 MPH. Tropical Storm Warnings now extend from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, Florida.

Eta restrengthened to a Category I hurricane overnight and appeared to have picked a path. Packing winds of 75 MPH, Eta was located 145 miles south-southwest of Tampa and heading toward the big bend region of the western Florida coast. Overnight, Eta formed a well-developed eye, but wind shear and relatively dry air will make further strengthening difficult.

Since its formation in late October, Eta has impacted Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Cuba, and the United States. Last week, Eta slammed into Central America, delivering 140 MPH winds, 18 feet storm surge, flooding, mudslides, and misery. Over 150 deaths were reported across the region, with more people missing.

Forecasters have not declared hurricane watches or warnings, but they are expected later today. Tropical Storm Theta continued to move east in the Atlantic with 60 MPH winds and posed no threat to land. A tropical wave located southwest of the Dominican Republic was expected to form into a tropical depression. If that system reaches tropical storm strength, it would become the 30th named storm of 2020 and represent the first time three named systems were in the Atlantic basin this late in a hurricane season.

National, Terra Firma

Tropical Storm Theta shatters single season hurricane record

Tropical Storm Theta became the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, shattering all previous records going back to 1850. Located 795 miles southwest of the Azores with winds of 70 MPH, Theta is not a threat to land and forecasted to weaken over the next five days.

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been the most active in history, with 12 named storms making United States landfall so far. Late Sunday, Tropical Storm Eta passed over the Florida Keys, bringing torrential rains and flash floods. In addition to Theta and Eta, the National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the southern Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Eta is almost stationary off the western tip of Cuba. Forecasters currently believe that Eta will struggle to become a hurricane again while remaining a threat from Alabama to Florida.

Local, Terra Firma, Weather

Significant weather event likely on Friday the 13th

The remnants of Tropical Storm Atsani is charging across the Pacific Ocean, on a collision course with the Pacific Northwest. Although Atsani lost all tropical characteristics days ago, the energy and moisture it collected are expected to arrive Friday in a two-day weather event.

The challenge in forecasting wind storms in western Washington is that the center of circulation’s location determines our region’s impact. If the storm passes to our north, close to the southern tip of Vancouver Island in British Columbia, we get the brunt of a wind event. If the storm passes to our south, up the Columbia River basin, Oregon receives the brunt of the wind. An error in the forecasted path of just 50 miles is the difference between a significant wind event and what we like to call “a nothing burger.”

Typically the computer models aren’t in agreement on the “where,” which is the case with the Friday forecast. The GFS model, which hasn’t been the most accurate for our winter weather, forecasts a significant, possibly historic wind event, with the storm passing over Vancouver Island. The Euro model, which was stellar a few years ago but has lost some accuracy, predicts Oregon will receive the most impact.

It is too far out with landfall still 72 hours away to narrow down the track, but here is what we do know. Forecast models put central pressure at landfall between 973 and 983 millibars – that is significantly more intense than Tropical Storm Eta when it crossed the Florida Keys. Barometric pressure this low is typically associated with Category I and Category II hurricanes (our November wind storms have nothing related to the mechanics of a tropical system, even if they are often the remnants of tropical systems).

Wave height forecasts for Friday and Saturday are, in a word, alarming. Some computer models forecast heights of 45 feet off the Oregon coast, with some models predicting higher than 50 feet.

What should you know? For central Puget Sound, there is growing potential for a significant weather event on Friday and Saturday. More specifically to the eastside, the chances for power loss, tree, and property damage is increasing and require a close watch. Along the coast, damaging waves that will cause low area flooding, erosion, and large debris to wash ashore and shift are likely, with the where being the bigger question. The Cascades can expect wind and mountain snow, and a lot of it. The storm track will determine the snow level, but anyone planning to cross the passes this weekend should consider leaving a day early.

Opening the new SH-520 bridge to relieve wind and wave stress is no longer required, and the latest design also prevents waves from over-topping the railings. Also, with reduced traffic in general due to COVID-19, regional travel shouldn’t be too challenging during the evening commute.

The weather model we prefer? That model shows the storm passing to our north but at the lower end of the strength forecast. We will continue to update this growing situation.

Local, Weather

Skiers rejoice – snow is coming to the Cascades

A cold and wet weather pattern has moved into western Washington, bringing lowland rains and mountain snows. Monday night will see snow levels drop to 2000 feet, enough for the white stuff to fall at all the passes (and our ski areas) through Wednesday morning. All of the passes and ski areas can expect six inches of snow to accumulate. On Wednesday, there is a break before the snow machine turns on again, with snow levels rising to around 3,000 feet. That’s right on the line for a rain/snow mix at Snoqualmie.

For the lowlands, Monday night and Tuesday are looking wet, with a break on Wednesday, followed by two more wet days at the end of the week. Friday is looking windy, but it is still too far out to say if we will see Wind Advisories in the lowlands.

Studded tires became legal again on Washington roads on November 1 this year, and if you plan to cross the passes, you should have a survival kit and tire chains packed. We will continue to monitor the situation.