The holiday weekend is almost here. I’ve written in the past
how meteorological summer is June 1 to August 31, so the first day of
meteorological fall is upon us! Seasonal fall for the non-science community is
from the Summer Solstice to the Autumnal Equinox, which is very late this year
at 12:50 PM on September 23rd! (that isn’t a typo). What I would call spiritual
summer in Puget Sound goes from July 5 to sometime in October when the machine that
runs fall gets turned on. If you’re confused, don’t worry. You can be
pessimistic and look at summer being over this weekend, or see the glass
half-full and see a few weeks of summer left, or be optimistic and revel in at
least six more weeks of decent weather to come.
What about the long weekend?
If you aren’t a native or a long-term resident, you have probably
concluded this summer has sucked. You would be wrong; this summer has been utterly
average for Puget Sound. This coming Labor Day weekend is more of the same. If
you don’t like the heat, you’ll be happy to know that for Kirkland, we’ll see
temperatures through the weekend from 77 to 81, depending on where you are. The
highest hills and right by the water will be the upper 70s; our Totem Lake hot
spot will eek into the 80s.
What about the sun? Well it won’t be very plentiful, but it
won’t be shrouded in low clouds either. We’re looking at mostly cloudy days,
that will improve in the afternoon. Saturday will be the most overcast day. It
will still be warm, but we aren’t going to see much sun.
Rain, that’s the important one, will it rain? Well, maybe.
Looking at the weather models individually and the ensemble, there is a 20% to
40% chance of rain hour by hour from Thursday to Monday (Monday is more than 72
hours out so a bit of a dart throw today). Nothing looks like soaking rain, and
we’ll likely get a few stray showers tonight (Thursday). If I were to place a
bet on the best chance for some morning drizzle or some rain, Saturday
afternoon to Sunday morning looks like the best chance (or worse if you do want
to view it that way).
As for looking into the crystal ball a bit further, next
week when all the kids will be back in school is looking like more of the same.
Some AM gloom that burns off and temperature in the 70s. You know, normal.
Let that image sink in. As a nation, our Democracy is dying. We the People are extinguishing the beacon of freedom that was the United States. Our country is losing our moral high ground on a global scale and our ability to say, “you can’t treat humans like this.” We have become the enemy of ourselves.
The implications of what we have become will echo for decades. You may read this and go, “I’m white, male, Trump-supporting, agree with all of these actions, and it can’t happen to me.”
Study your history. It can happen to you because, through history, people thought the same thing. It is acceptable right up to the point they are in a concentration camp, or slave labor camp, or forced into conscription in an aborted war. There was no one left to go, “what the Hell, stop this!” Or maybe it will be your child, or your spouse, or your parents who will run afoul of the state.
Here are some facts that should keep every American awake. Immigration and Customs Enforcement operates as an extra-judicial organization and primarily outside of Constitutional protection.
FACT: Immigration and Customs Enforcement can do enforcement action at will up to 100 miles away from the borders of the United States. That includes waterways and ocean boundaries. Almost 70% of the United States population lives within this area.
FACT: Immigration and Customs Enforcement has set up checkpoints within this 100 miles zone. They are demanding proof of citizenship and operating outside of Constitutional protections.
QUESTION: If you had to prove your citizenship on the spot, can you? What if ICE says your paperwork is fake aka, “your papers are not in order,” and that you need to go to headquarters, errr detention. Think it doesn’t happen? Multiple United States citizens have ended up in ICE detention and held for months, told they have no Constitutional rights while in ICE custody.
FACT: ICE courts do not roll up into the Judicial branch of the United States government. They are part of the Executive Branch. Yes, that’s right, courts in the United States operate outside of the balance of power, and report directly to the Attorneys General. Run by the Executive Branch, this has created a system that works outside of the Constitution. Judges must meet deportation quotas. There are new rules invented out of thin air, and asylum seekers, even children, have to represent themselves with no translator and no legal council. The appeals process, which provides balance in the Judicial Branch by enabling defendants to argue that laws were violated in making a decision, are little more than kangaroo courts.
FACT: Illegal border crossing and the number of people seeking asylum has skyrocketed under the current administration, the “we must be tough,” polices are not working. Further, the actions taken against the governments of several Latin American countries, obstinately to reduce immigration, has only increased it.
FACT: The seal of decency, the outrage that would typically follow a savage attack on minorities, simply because they were minorities, is gone. The Latino population in the United States is living in fear because of almost three years of exaggerations, lies, and vile hatred directed at them.
All of these actions, all of these systems, this has happened before. Every dollar, the current administration gets, goes to building a private army for the Executive Branch. If fully weaponized, this system could move on almost 70% of the United States population at will. The Executive Branch could detain people into detention camps to disappear among the immigrants, to have cases heard by judges that report to the same branch. Not only are the seeds of dictatorship planted, but they are also growing into a tangled vine. The Legislative Branch is impotent and paralyzed, and leaders like Mitch McConnell are in lockstep alignment with the Executive Branch. You could argue, coherently, that McConnell helped lay the foundation for where we are today.
If you’re not familiar with your history, in Germany, an individual leader didn’t sweep to power illegally. A vote legally made by the Reichstag made him Chancellor. During this era, the political party didn’t openly support or organize violence against minority classes but didn’t do anything to stop it. They used language like “good people on both sides.” The vote by the Reichstag was tainted by the arrest, delay, and detention of politicians that would vote against giving the Chancellor dictatorial powers. However, there weren’t enough votes to stop it. The point becomes only academic.
If you’ve read this far to tell me what an idiot I am, please study your history. The Reichstag fire enabled the mass arrests of Communists, Socialists, trade union leaders, college professors, intellectuals, reporters, editors, and dissenters. Dachau became the first concentration camp for political prisoners. By effectively silencing any opposition by the end of 1933, the ire of the party could then focus on racial minorities, LGBTQ, Romani, the mentally ill, the disabled, Eastern Europeans, and Jews. The Final Solution started in 1942, a full nine years after the first concentration camp opened.
When it came to enforcement of the fascist state, the Gestapo was an organization with roughly 10,000 employees. Yes, you read that right, the secret police in Germany operated with an iron fist with that few people. They used citizens against each other. All it took was to talk ill of the state. But I love Trump! I would never speak evil of him! I am willing to bet that some of the same farmers that threatened USDA officials this week would have said the same thing 18 months ago.
An admission that up to 30% of US farmland couldn’t be planted because of historic flooding, levee collapses, and tariffs would be an admission of things we don’t admit. The farmers are outraged at the USDA because the crop forecast is beyond pure bullshit. The unintended consequence of hiding reality with the doctored USDA crop forecast was a collapse in grain prices. Farmers will get paid less due to the price collapse on a smaller harvest, cutting their profits even more. Enemies of the state – and I’ll repeat it – tariffs are socialism because tariffs represent price controls.
The Executive Branch has directed Immigration and Customs Enforcement to hold families, including children, indefinitely in concentration camp conditions. The due process comes from courts that work for the Executive Branch, where judges have quotas to achieve on deportations. You can’t even say that this is acceptable because “well, it is only illegal immigrants.” Multiple American citizens, including children, have been caught up in this system and held for months. They have been held outside of Constitutional protection and in conditions that violate the Constitution.
We are on the precipice of a cliff that history has shown leads us not to greatness, but as a shattered nation.
If you’ve been following my adventures in NYC this week you’ve likely seen my quests to find the best hot dog and the best pizza slice in Manhattan. A key benefit of burning calories like someone in their 20s, you can eat like someone in their 20s – but longterm you can’t.
I’ve made some comments in the video about jogging between each location (truth, with an exception of coming back from a hot dog as I just couldn’t do it with a full belly). I do work hard to make sure I burn at least 3,000 calories each day. The reality is if I sit on my ass and do nothing, I’ll burn between 2,000 and 2,200 calories. If I limit myself to 2,000 to 2,200 calories (burn what you take in) then – MALCONTENT HUNGRY! It isn’t enough, so ironically I have to exercise, to burn more so I can eat more, so I can feel satiated.
The reality is, I can’t out-jog or out-exercise a bad diet – and a diet fueled by Manhattan pizza slices and hot dogs, with the occasional visit to Paris Baguette because holy crap on a pita, what an amazing place to lie to yourself, is a lousy diet. Wait, you’ve written burn what you consume! You’re burning what you consume! Burning 3,200 calories or more a day is tough when you work fulltime. That requires exercise to consume at least 1,000 calories, equivalent to jogging for an hour!
The other issue goes beyond calories. My resting pulse has elevated to 60 BPM this week. Why? The amount of sodium I’m consuming is raising my pulse and blood pressure. Additionally, my level of hydration is swinging wildly. I am also consuming far more than my top target of 30 grams of processed sugar a day, and likely exceeding the government recommendation of no more than 50 grams a day. No amount of exercise, supplements, or hydration will solve for either of these.
It is definitely OK to splurge, and I’m a huge believer that the minute you put food into the bucket of good food and bad food, you’re losing the battle. Pizza followed by a Strawberry Harmonica is not inherently bad – especially if it brings you joy. Pizza and a Strawberry Harmonica followed by a hot dog, day in, day out, is a bad diet. Today was back to basics, Big Ass Salad for lunch (BAS), a cup of soup with a clear broth, and this morning was oatmeal with a single egg and 2 strips of bacon. I even said pass on NYC bagels that are in the office today. It’s OK, I had my fun.
I always close when I write about weighty matters that the most critical thing is to be happy with who you are. That isn’t to dismiss the fact that being overweight has consequences long term. If you’re fighting weighty matters know I’ve been there with you – it’s OK to splurge – but everything has to be in moderation. After 8 slices of pizza and 3 hot dogs in 72 hours, the party is over.
A lot of keystrokes have been dedicated to the subject of “is
Facebook listening to my conversations?” The general conclusion is a
resounding, no to at the worst, highly unlikely. I feel like I need to adjust
my tinfoil hat because I’ve had a couple of incidents lately that have me take
pause and wonder, is AI listening to my conversations and using it for marketing?
Before I take this leap, let me provide a bit of background.
I was, up until two weeks ago, the head of Product Marketing at a company that
specializes in providing TV ad attribution to upper and lower funnel KPIs, as
well as conversion events, to brands and networks. The ability to go this TV
displayed this ad in this household, and then this phone or PC visited this
website, or bought this item, or walked into this store, or, well you get the
idea, is both very simple and very complex. The capability to do it to the level
of an individual is possible. To be 100% clear, my company does not in any way
engage in that level of tracking, nor do we use or even accept or process
Personally Identifiable Information (PII). We also have a crystal-clear opt-in
process. Those that know me, I mean know me, know I would quit tomorrow if I
thought for one minute, we were doing something crooked. I’ve been under the
hood.
The point of this is, I “understand,” this technology. I understand
that between tracking pixels, cookies, UID, MAID, device IDs, and connecting all
this data using LiveRamp or Adobe, as two examples, exists. It is completely
true that when all your browsing, search, location, and social information is
aggregated, even in an “anonymous” way, a very detailed picture of you emerges.
A few years ago it was common that if you searched refrigerators online that
you would see ads for refrigerators for the next six months – everywhere – even
if you already bought a refrigerator. Now it seems that if you even thought
about a fridge or said, “Hey honey, I think we need a new refrigerator,” ads
appear. It could be as simple as you walked into a Best Buy store, followed by
Frys, followed by Sears, and the location data was used to conclude you were
looking at appliances. Yes, that simple.
Back to my tinfoil hat. Case study number one.
About a month ago at work, we were talking about printers
and high-quality printers for photo production or other work. I had mentioned
that years ago, I had owned a Minolta color laser printer that created amazing
quality prints for years. That I had it until the drum had worn out, and the cost
was prohibitive for replacement, so I got rid of it.
That same day, on Facebook, I was served an ad for Minolta color laser printer cartridges. I haven’t looked at replacement printers in a year. I certainly didn’t search for anything. I have gone into some office supply stores but not outside of my usual patterns. I hadn’t made any Amazon purchases related to Minolta anything, or anywhere else for that matter. I hadn’t even thought or dreamed about my Minolta printer, that I got rid of 7 years ago after five years of service. There it was, an ad for Minolta laser printer cartridges in my Facebook feed. I honestly went, “meh,” because I understand the technology for ad optimization.
Case study number two.
Today I was driving my daughter around to pick up a prescription. I told her about the massaging seats in my somewhat, new to us, car as we were traveling. I told her where the button was to turn it on and how it feels good on the back. She found the button and described it as like a cat kneading you and that it felt good. Her prescriptions were not back pain related; I have done no searches about back pain, or sciatica, or any other type of back-related pain. I did have an MRI on my shoulder about six weeks ago, but no ads were shown to me for pain management, back issues, or any other issue related to the back. I have done no searches about back or back-related problems. I haven’t been to a chiropractor or any other place where location data could go, hey, maybe we should show him this. So I get home and well, look for yourself.
Things that make you go, “Hmmmmm.” I have a conversation with my daughter about the massaging seats in my car and this is one of the first ads I see on Facebook after.
So now color me very skeptical, because leveraging what I
know, it is getting harder for me to believe that Samsung, or Apple, or
Facebook, or Google, or Amazon, or someone is not listening to my
conversations and showing me ads related to those conversations. Case study one
I can write off to bizarre coincidence. This second one makes it harder for me
to accept that there is something deeper going on. Neural nets, artificial intelligence,
and remarketing algorithms are good (well, in reality, they are pretty flawed,
but they are getting better), but they are nowhere near that good.
Three-hundred-and-seventy days ago, I started a journey. No, let me back up, 370 days ago I restarted a journey I began in 2016. In 2016 I had reached a point with my weight where I felt I needed to do, something. Work, off and on struggles with depression, and chronic sleep apnea caused by my anatomy was taking a toll. In January of 2016, I weighed in at 264 pounds, 119.5 kilograms. Because I’m pigeon chested my frame helped hide the heft to a degree.
By the summer of 2016, I had dropped 25 pounds and then came
Pokemon Go. Yes, I play and yes I still play, but in the summer of 2016, it was
an addiction. I started to walk everywhere and perfected catching and spinning
while on the move. I dropped down to 220 pounds, felt great, and was wearing
clothes that hadn’t fit since 2008.
Then came Amazon and AWS. By the time I got to Amazon, I was deeply committed to one hour of exercise a day and five mini-meals. That survived for about a month. Twelve-hour workdays, a two-hour commute, followed by two to four more hours of work in the evening killed any sense of maintaining a fitness program. I would go the entire day without eating because that was the expectation of my management team. I would come home and binge on 4,000, 5,000 even 6,000 calories. Saturday would be a 10 to 12-hour workday, and Sunday evening would be more. The expectation bar of working 24/7 and immediate access was so high that I was written up for not checking e-mail while on vacation in August of 2017. The reason? This did not show Amazon values of, “ownership.” Enough of that. I had reached my breaking point, and so had my body.
So 370 days ago, I got on the scale and weighed 254 pounds. “Fuck this,” I thought. I had worked so hard to get down to 220, and there were tangible benefits, I’m not going back to 264, or higher. So I started my journey.
August 29, 2018, Denali National Park with Mrs. Doctor Malcontent. I had lost 5 or 10 pounds when this picture was taken – little did I know something inside me would change the next day.
On August 29, 2018, a person took this picture of my wife and I while visiting Denali National Park. The reason I’m wearing gaiters is we had hiking plans for the day. We made it to the crest of the ridge over the Eielson Visitor Center on one of the only days in the summer of 2018 where Denali wasn’t shrouded in clouds. It wasn’t an easy climb, but we made it and even climbed a series of false summits in search of solitude.
The next day was cloudy, cold, and gray. We picked a front
country trail that ended up being almost double the distance the sign indicated
with more elevation gain. As we hit the summit, sleet pelted us in a howling
wind of 35 to 40 MPH. We loved every minute of it and didn’t realize how far we
went until we got back to the trailhead.
If you’ve read this far you’re probably going, “where is the punchline? Get to the point!” Alaska is really important to this story and I will never be able to explain why. A common question about my journey is if there was an event, or a scare, or a medical reason I did this. The answer is always no, but it does come back to Alaska. It wasn’t because I was incapable of doing the things I wanted to do due to weight, it wasn’t because an airplane seatbelt would barely fit me, or the eye rolls when someone sat next to me on the plane. Just something changed, and I was motivated to change.
September 11, 2018 – 244 pounds.
October 10, 2018 – 234 pounds.
November 10, 2018 – 220 pounds.
By November I reached a point nothing fit me anymore, and I was having to literally hold up my sweat pants with one hand when I exercised. This picture was taken before a morning jog to breakfast while visiting family in California.
December 11, 2018 – 209 pounds.
January 12, 2019 – 194 pounds.
February 12, 2019 – 189 pounds.
March 11, 2019 – 177 pounds.
Mother’s Day 2019 after a 5K run. Completed in 28:34. Is this the same guy from August 29, 2018? Yes, yes it is.
July 18, 2019 – 177 pounds.
My weight now moves in a range of 173 to 180 pounds since
March 3, 2019.
Eighty pounds lost since August 15, 2019, 90 pounds lost total.
One year of data collected from meticulous logging of my weight and activity – thank you, Fitbit!
So the next question that comes up is, “how did you do it?”
I did it alone. I didn’t join a group or get a coach. I didn’t
follow any fad diet or diet du jour. I didn’t do Atkins, keto, paleo, gluten-free,
elimination, intermittent fasting, cleanses or detox. I also never approached
this as a diet.
A key thing I realized in this journey is the minute you say, “I’m going on a diet,” you have already failed. Sorry, that’s my view. A diet is temporary. A diet is right for 5 or 10 pounds that suddenly crept up. The problem with going on a diet is a diet does not address the underlying negative relationship you have with food. If you have an unhealthy relationship with food when your diet ends, you go back to your unhealthy relationship.
The next thing is I established a mantra in Alaska. Just keep moving. The minute I feel tired, the minute the couch calls me, the minute I feel like I want to take a 30-minute nap, that is the exact time I need to get up and do – something. Something might be doing the dishes in the sink, or work in the garden, but I treated the couch, computers, and TV as the enemy. Just keep moving turned into walking turned into jogging turned into – well look.
Just keep moving means burning an average of 3,000 calories a day. My basal calorie burn is around 2,100 calories a day – under maintenance for weight 2,100 calories doesn’t keep me satiated so ironically, I need to burn more, so I can eat more. #justkeepmoving
The next question I’m usually asked is, “well, what did you
do.” The thing is when I look back over the last year I come to this simple
answer, I ate right, and I exercised. I have to give credit to Fitbit for
keeping me honest and providing me with thermodynamic data. Thermodynamics?
What the Hell does thermodynamics have to do with weight loss? A lot! It is a straightforward
formula; to lose weight, you must burn more calories than you consume. Put a
period on that sentence. There is no such thing as targeted weight loss,
miracle pills, or magical eight-minute workouts.
I can’t say I eliminated anything from my diet. I almost eliminated all refined sugar, processed white flour, white rice, and pasta. It took me almost six months to wean myself off diet soft drinks, but I cut all diet soda and with it, artificial sweeteners. The only thing I can say I eliminated was fried food, but even then I had the occasional French fry. I never put food into buckets of good food versus bad food. What I did do was consider the calories of my choices, and would then choose something with more caloric bang for the buck.
As an example, if you make fried rice, sesame oil and all, by the book, but make it was cauliflower rice, you cut 80% of the calories. A cup of cauliflower rice is 20 to 25 calories, a cup of cooked white rice is about 210 calories. This is a great example of making a change to create a calorie deficit without suffering. Cauliflower rice on its own is woe and suffering, used in a stirfry or to replace rice in dishes where it is a compliment and not the feature, it is near indistinguishable.
I ate Halloween candy. I ate mashed potatoes, stuffing, and pumpkin pie on Thanksgiving. I had significant surgery at the end of 2018 and was back to just keep moving four days later. The day before my surgery I went on a midnight jog to make sure I took up my last chance to get active minutes and exercise in – eight hours later I was under the knife. Twelve hours after surgery I logged 15 minutes of exercise per Fitbit walking laps around the hospital ward under the supervision of the nursing staff.
On the day after surgery, I asked for a double cheeseburger with the bread and inhaled it. I never suffered, and I never deprived myself. If I found myself wanting ice cream, I would have ice cream, and I would adjust what ate through the day so I would still feel full. I never let myself go over 50 grams of added sugar in a day (which is still a lot) and went many days eating no processed sugar.
Food porn picture from Christmas dinner 2018. Green beans, roasted Brussel sprouts, asparagus, grilled shrimp, seared scallops, halibut, sliced sirloin steak with mushrooms and onions. Does this look like suffering and woe?
I weighed in and still do every day, but I don’t chase a weight.
I’ve learned that I can get on the scale in the morning and weigh five more
pounds than yesterday, and that means nothing. What is the weekly trend? What
is my body telling me?
I approached this as a lifestyle change. I eat significantly
more fresh fruits and vegetables; I eat lean protein and good fats. I still
count the calories on everything I eat – thermodynamics.
I frequently get asked if I feel like a new person, and can I now do the things that I couldn’t do before. The answer to that is yes, and no. My sleep apnea is related to the anatomy of the airway, which has been described as “horrific” by medical professionals. I will always have to wear a mask, and I will still have to use very high pressure. I climbed the ridges and peaks of Denali – I can now do it faster with less stopping.
One year of data of elevation gain/stairs climbed. Although the rate increases (and the impact from my surgery is very clear in the middle) the weight didn’t keep me from doing things I wanted to do, it just took me a lot longer and a lot more effort.
The most significant changes are invisible. My resting pulse went from 72 to 54. My blood pressure dropped along with my blood sugar (I was never pre-diabetic), and cholesterol level. I can run a 5K in 28:30 give or take, and I’m told that is a good time. One thing is for sure, I will never go back. This has been a total lifestyle change and my entire relationship dynamic with food has changed. I crushed cravings, which are very real, and have a true understanding of some simple principles:
Sleep, stress, and diet all impact your resting pulse. The spike to 59 was a day I ate out and had some Chinese food. My cardio fitness score is 48, starting from 35 a year ago.
You have to burn more than you eat.
You can’t deprive yourself or approach it as a diet – diets are
temporary.
You have to just keep moving – exercise is an integral part of changing your lifestyle because there is a cruel joke during weight loss. As you lose weight your body burns fewer calories because you are carrying less mass. If you don’t increase exercise you lose the muscle you developed to help move that mass and burn even fewer calories. That leads to the plateau, or worse, why am I gaining weight even though I’m eating less. You have to #justkeepmoving and you have to increase exertion.
So that’s my story and that is my journey. I’m told constantly I should write a book about this, but I’m convinced that the mantra of just keep moving, log weight, log what you eat, don’t say you’re going on a diet, eat right not less, exercise as it is critical to keeping the weight off, just won’t sell. We like quick fixes – but I would argue that an 80-pound transformation in seven months is a pretty darn quick fix.
So you want to know about the weather forecast for the
Fourth of July? Errr mer Gerd, it’s cool and cloudy! It’s June Gloom in July;
the fourth is ruined! Relax.
Today we are going to be well below normal with high
temperatures topping out from 60 to 65 depending on your location in Kirkland.
Basically, the needle isn’t going to move much through the day. We’ll have a
thick blanket of clouds but can’t rule out the sun peeking through from time to
time. We’ll get another round of scattered light showers this afternoon and
evening – stress scattered and light.
Wednesday will be more cloudy then sunny, and there is a
chance in the morning for some drizzle or a stray shower. Temperatures will be
70 to 75, and the afternoon will clear up. In other words, Wednesday is going
to be a textbook June Gloom day.
The Fourth, the big day, the event, it will have Air Force
planes, tanks, VIP seats for Republican donors, screaming eagles, and an orange
leader. Oh, that’s Washington D.C., I digress. For us, we’ll start cloudy, but
no chance of rain or drizzle. The clouds will burn off to a spectacular day
with high temperatures of 71 to 76. It is going to be a beautiful day and clear
for fireworks.
Looking forward past the fourth of July, our unofficial start of summer (July 5) is also textbook for Seattle. Partly cloudy to sunny through the period, almost no chance of rain, with temperatures warming up to the mid-80s by the middle of the month.
Lowest tides of the year
There is also a special bonus for this Fourth of July. Puget
Sound will be having the lowest tides of the year this week, and they are timed
ideally. For the Duwamish Head:
Tuesday: -3.0 feet @ 11:14 AM
Wednesday: -3.4 feet @ 11:58 AM
Thursday: -3.0 feet @ 12:43 PM
Friday: -3.0 feet @ 1:31 PM
This is our annual chance to tide pool and it is happening when a lot of people have the day off. Remember to know the tides, don’t get stranded, wear the right footwear, and be safe. It will be very slippery out there. Also, remember not to harass the sealife and use leave no trace ethics.
Jetty Island Ferry starts daily service
Also! The Jetty Island Ferry in Everett starts its annual daily runs on Friday, July 5, 2019. The first ferry of the year will launch at 10:00 AM. From Friday to Sunday the ferry runs from 10:00 AM to 9:00 PM, you can see the schedule here. Please note that ferry runs can be canceled due to extremely low tides, so it is likely ferry service will be disrupted this upcoming weekend. If you plan to visit Jetty Island, especially midday to the afternoon on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday, call ahead for schedule information.
Some people call it Juneuary; others call it June Gloom. If
you live on the Pacific Coast, from San Diego to Neah Bay, we all get sucked
in. April rain gives way to sunny days in May and just as the temperatures get
into the 70s, surprise! The fog rolls in, low clouds, morning drizzle, and
temperatures that struggle to get to 60. A long-standing Puget Sound joke is
summer begins on July 5th, as the lingering gloom hangs on into early July.
We already had record heat earlier this month, including a
blistering 95-degree day. Our warm sunny streak sputtered over the previous
weekend, and June Gloom hung over the region with low clouds and drizzle. Get
ready; more is coming.
Today (Tuesday) is going to be the nicest day of the work
week. We’ll have more sun than clouds and our high 40s and low 50s of this
morning will give way to mid-70s later in the day. Tomorrow will start similar
but will go downhill.
Wednesday afternoon the clouds will thicken, the air will
get unstable, and rain showers will start up. It wouldn’t be out of the question
to get some rumbles of thunder.
Wednesday night, Thursday, Thursday night, Friday, and
Friday night? June Gloom in full force. Cloudy with some sun breaks, rain
showers, drizzle, low clouds, and temperatures slightly below average.
This upcoming weekend, which will be the start of a vacation
week for many, looks nice. Morning clouds on Saturday (and I’m guessing drizzle
only because it wouldn’t be the Greenwood Car Show without rain for at least
part of the day – ARGH) will give way to a day similar to our Monday, complete
with highs in the 70s.
So why June Gloom? Well, you can blame it on the Pacific
Ocean. As we get into late meteorological spring, soil temperatures and inland
waterway temperatures increase, while the vast waters of the Pacific Ocean need
more time to catch up. Warm ground + cool marine air flowing inland =
condensation. Cold air sinks and that creates low clouds and fog. The moisture is
squeezed out of the atmosphere, low clouds become saturated, the air can’t hold
the water anymore, and we get drizzle and light rain. As our days get longer
and the sun sits higher in the sky, the marine air dries out, and we get sun breaks
that turn into blue sky late afternoons. The sun goes down; the air cools, the
marine air rushes back in, repeat.
What about the Fourth of July? Well, that’s throwing darts
at this point, but long-range models appear to indicate it will be pleasant.
Stay tuned for more.
Thanks to some Malcontents who did a bit of research, we have an answer to the question, is this national pride or white nationalism.
The answer is – national pride. The story behind the story is actually pretty fascinating, and you can watch this video to learn more.
I’m back from a break and our annual photography trip to the Palouse region of Washington state. We spent four days covering almost 1200 miles taking pictures from sunup to sundown. Last night I discovered I snapped 1059 images on my primary camera, and maybe 50 to 100 more on my cellphone. I also shot a handful of video clips.
When I saw this picture right after I snapped it, I had a lot of thoughts going on in my head. Here is a piece of rusting farm equipment with a tattered American flag flying off of it. The field of wheat it sits in appears lush and healthy, but the soil is parched, and the plants are shorter than our last trip, which was a full month earlier in the growing season. The state has been in a drought, and there isn’t much relief to come.
Depressed prices have rocked United States grain farmers along
with extreme weather, changing growing seasons, tariffs, and the changing
American diet. Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies are accelerating in 2019, but are
nowhere near peak levels during the 1980s.
Last night I poured through a thousand images and selected
about 80 for post-processing, including this photo, which I posted on Instagram
and Facebook while on my trip. I had planned on Thoughtful Tuesday to write
about the struggles of the American farmer, the strategic role they play for the
nation, and the dying of rural America. That was my plan. Then I did post-production
on this photo.
If you’re not familiar with the photography process, the
first step is to zoom in on an image as part of the selection process. You’re
looking to see how crisp the picture is. A perfect photo with proper focus will
have crisp details in the areas you want to pull the viewer to and the required
depth. The fastest way to figure that out is to zoom in on key features. Text, numbers,
and words are an excellent choice for this process.
My two choices for this picture was the American flag and
the word, “Harris,” on the equipment. The stars on the American flag were surprisingly
crisp as the tatters were in motion with a stiff wind blowing. When I zoomed
into the “Harris,” I suddenly felt sick to my stomach. There below the Harris,
in smaller font but equally crisp the number 88.
The number 88 is associated with white nationalism and
Neo-Nazis, with the letter H being the eighth letter in the alphabet. In these
circles, the number 88 is a hidden in plain sight reference to, “Heil Hitler.” The
problem, of course, is the number 88 could also be completely innocuous. The
farm could have been established in 1888; the person who put this here could
have some connection to 1988, or 1888. There may be no connection with white
nationalism at all, or there may be.
Three years ago I wouldn’t have given this a second thought. I still knew of the 88 connection to white nationalism, but I wouldn’t even consider someone would be this brazen, but that was then, and this is now. Located on the Idaho panhandle border, a known hotbed of white nationalism, the Pandora’s box open and supporters of the doctrine almost as visible as the civil rights unrest of the 1950s and 1960s, or when the German American Bund was active in the 1930s.
There are so many seeds of distrust sown in our nation due
to social media and political agendas, ironically some of it backfiring on the
architects of this erosion. US allies have been told for almost three years
that US intelligence arms can’t be trusted, and now the same administration is
saying, “trust us, our intelligence agencies say Iran attacked two oil tankers!”
All but our most ardent ally, the UK, is looking at us going, “we’d like to see
other intelligence, as you’ve been saying you can’t trust your own.”
So is this a monument of white nationalism? A homage to MAGA and a proclamation that greatness is achieved when we are white? Is this a symbol of hate? Or is this simply a number on a rusting piece of equipment? A monument to a time when rural America had a path to prosperity supported by the local businesses? In 2019, it is really hard to tell.
We sure have been using a lot of Wite-out and erasers in the record books this year, and after the record high of yesterday, new records were set just as the sun was rising on the 12th of June.
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport set a record for the warmest low temperature for June 12, where the mercury dropped only to 65 degrees for a few minutes. That beat the old record of 56 degrees and was the fourth warmest June low temperature since weather records have been kept in Seattle.
The official forecast is for 89 degrees, but as I’ve written previously the computer models don’t do a good job of capturing the impact of thermal troughs on our high temperatures, and forecast low. We saw that yesterday with an official forecast high of 83, and an actual high of 87.
We have more cloud cover today that helped hold the heat in overnight, and will moderate our temperatures, slightly. That’s the wild card, how much cloud cover, for how long, and does it thicken up during the heat of the day. There is the slimmest chance of some showers drifting off of the Cascades this afternoon, but the humidity is very low so they’ll have a hard time not falling apart as they drift west.
If we don’t get thickening clouds between noon and 6 PM, expect the official high to land between 92 and 93 degrees, the forecast is 89. This will break the KSEA record of 85, and the Federal Building record of 88. As for Kirkland you can expect the entire community to hit 90 day, unless we get some stray drops. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Totem Lake around 93 or 94 -our area hot spot.
Stay cool and remember:
Juanita Beach is still closed due to e-coli contamination
Area lakes and rivers are still cold, be careful when swimming
Don’t leave your pets in your car – not even for a few minutes
Don’t leave your kids in your car – not even for a few minutes
Haggard? Tired? Stressed? Double check that backseat before leaving home, especially if you have kids or pets – shit happens
Bring patience to your commute, this kind of heat will test the mechanical condition of vehicles and expect stalls and breakdown to fuck up our area traffic
May and June is a time of commencement at primary and secondary education institutions across the United States. From high school diplomas to newly minted doctors, this is a time of transition. At a recent graduation ceremony, one of the schools was honoring their theology graduates. Who would study theology in 2019? Beyond the obvious answer of priests and poets, there is a significant demand for theologians in the modern workplace. You see, the robots are coming.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is moving at a fast pace, and
Moore’s Law provides some insight into how fast it will improve – double the
performance every 18 months. The idea of AI achieving singularity and becoming
self-aware is moving from the pages of science fiction and into the realm of
science fact. Not this year, not next, likely not even the next decade, but in
our lifetime it seems an almost certainty.
Today, AI touches us in many ways and goes far beyond sales
and marketing algorithms that display ads of items on webpages you visit 30
seconds after you browsed for a said item on Amazon (or eBay, or clicked a
Facebook ad, or…). Some AI is simply the computerization of long created
formulas such as credit evaluation, your CLUE report for insurance quotes, or actuary
tables. But as computing power doubles every 18 months, and our ability to
process the mountains of data collected over the last three decades get better,
AI is moving to replace a lot of human decisions.
AI is already being used by IBM to determine
who will likely quit their job with 95% accuracy. Yes, a whole 95%! That
means one out of twenty people are misidentified by the AI, and they are either
pushed out the door without real due cause or given an incentive to stay when
there was no reason to provide one. So if you end up on the AI, “this person is
on a quit job trajectory,” list, you have a 5% chance of your career being
ruined or enhanced depending on the decision of an AI. Just let that sink in
for a little bit.
There are billions of dollars, if not tens-of-billions,
being invested in developing Level
V autonomy for cars and trucks – a fully autonomous four-season any road
any condition self-driving vehicle. Contrary to what some cheerleaders are
declaring, we are still years away from this goal. Tesla has already missed
preannounced goals for self-driving cars, self-driving test vehicles have killed
people, and Tesla vehicles still struggle to identify potential risks like 18-wheelers
in the road. There isn’t’ a single autonomous system that exists today that
can drive on a snow-covered highway, as we had in February in the Puget Sound
region. Without the ability to see the lane markers, a self-driving car can’t pick
a course on a multilane road. However, that is only the beginning of the challenges.
As an example, let’s say I’m sitting in my fully autonomous car,
and it is taking my future elderly self to a doctor’s appointment. So far, this
is pure goodness as I still have my independence. Now let us introduce little
Jane. Jane is playing with a ball. Jane rolls the ball to Dick. Dick misses the
ball. Run Dick, run!
Little Dick runs right in front of my autonomous car, which is traveling at 40
MPH, the posted speed limit on this road that goes by a park. In the oncoming
lane is an 18 wheeler, also autonomous and driving at the 40 MPH posted speed
limit. Now the AI has to make a choice. It calculates the distance faster than
a human ever could from the front bumper to little Dick using cameras and
sensors better than the human eye. It runs a formula that is only as good as
the lowest paid programmer that worked on that particular code, that considers
road conditions, angle, lighting, vehicle condition, and concludes there is no
way it can stop in time without running over Dick at a speed of 21 MPH.
A Waymo self-driving test car – Wikimedia Creative Commons – these little pods use to ply the streets of Kirkland and had issues with stop signs
Now the AI runs another subroutine to determine which is the
best outcome. Does the car swerve right into the park, brake and hold and hit little
Dick anyway, or dive left and crash head-on into the 18-wheeler. As part of
that subroutine, it looks at my old age versus Dick being seven years old,
calculates the risk of injury to Dick versus me, and then calculates the
severity of the potential injury and quality of remaining life. The AI
concludes Dick is about a seven-year-old male child based on what it sees in
its sensors and running it through a comparative database. Based on those
calculations, the autonomous car makes a choice and commits suicide into the
18-wheeler traveling at 40 MPH.
It calculated I had an 82% chance of surviving the accident,
while Dick had only a 3% chance of being hit by flying debris if it swerves
into the truck. It calculated it could slow down to 21 MPH before hitting the
18-wheeler, for an equivalent impact of 61 MPH. It calculated there was a 13%
chance my injuries would be fatal, short or long term, but that Dick would be
more severely injured and with a greater disability if it elected to run him,
and the ball over. It also took this as the safe bet because Dick, being a pedestrian
and a flawed human, had a 38% chance of doing something not considered by the
subroutine.
The auto industry that builds these cars got protection from
Congress years earlier, making it impossible for me to sue them for the AI
decision. The self-driving car was owned by a car-sharing service; private
vehicle ownership became an anachronism years ago. File this under shit
happens. Unfortunately, due to prior abdominal surgeries when I was younger, I
suffered uncalculated internal injuries and died from complications eight
months later. The AI decided that little Dick’s life was worth more than mine.
If you think this is the stuff of fantasy and fear, spend
some time talking to people working on autonomous cars. We can reach a
place where all cars are autonomous (that will take decades), but you still can’t
account for pedestrians, cyclists, and animals. The AI for a self-driving car
has to consider all these options because drivers around the world are faced
with the snap decision to run over little Dick, crash head-on into oncoming
traffic to save little Dick, or swerve off the road and hope not to kill anyone
else. To develop a truly autonomous car, it has to make these decisions. Do you
want an AI to decide whether you live or die? Can you say you would never run
over little Dick in front of Jane? You can’t because you’ll never know how you’ll
react until you’re in the crisis – but you have free will to respond. Some will
argue that the AI can make a cold, emotionless calculation faster, which makes
it better than human.
There is why we need theologians and why there is a demand
for them in the development of AI. As our technology defeats, “God,” we are programming
computers to play God. AIs are determining the potential of human beings today,
not just financially – educationally, work achievement potential, but those cold,
perfect instant decisions calculated using thousands of known and proven data
points, are only as accurate as the worst computer programmer who worked on the
project and the quality of the data used.
We see a world turn its back on religion, and a significant minority
screaming louder out of fear as we become more, godless. I am not arguing whether
this is good, bad, or indifferent. The profoundly religious are wringing their
hands on abortion, gay marriage, gender fluidity, and other wedge issues that
have no real intrinsic value beyond dividing us more deeply along political
lines. There is a growing belief in corporate America and among technologists
that computers can replace humans when it comes to making decisions, and the
religious are
almost silent on this matter. We can use AI because computers and artificial
intelligence can do it faster, without emotion, and consider more data points
than a human could ever accomplish. All at the performance level of the worst
programmer to work on the code.
So if we abdicate human decisions to AI, do we extinguish
the essence of what makes us human – free will. Do we risk labeling humans the
second they are born based on thousands of data points on their potential? In
this future world, where no one takes a risk, does a different AI decide that because
Dick suffered trauma at 7-years old seeing a fatal motor vehicle accident,
there is a 23% chance he has PTSD that could impact his work product so that the
Schmectel Corporation won’t hire him? Because Schmectel won’t hire him, he can’t
get into Super Amazing University, but Amazing University will take him? If you
think that is so far fetched one only has to look to China, and their social scores
they are rolling out. Because yet another AI could decide that if Dick
complains about not getting into Super Amazing University, he shouldn’t even
get into Amazing University because the AI predicts there is an 8% chance he
will be disruptive at the University.
Wikimedia Creative Commons – Boston Dynamics “robot dogs” are the stuff of your science fiction fantasies pulling Santa’s slay, or your science fiction nightmares if they are out to slay
We need theologians more than ever. Some amazing minds that
exist today consider
AI to be the biggest threat to humanity as we know it. Where does the human
race go when the singularity
is achieved? If those subroutines and algorithms are flawed, an AI could start
doing a personal assessment on the threats humanity represents and begin making…decisions
to protect itself. Never forget another critical part of being self-aware is a need
for self-preservation. Oh pish-posh, the Three Laws of
Robotics written by Issac Asimov, would prevent that from happening. One
can look to the books I, Robot or 2001 as an example of what happens
when an AI receives conflicting instructions. At least the Matrix will almost
certainly not happen; in reality, we would make terrible
batteries to power the machines.
Think about it.
Malcontent, out.
Journalists, activists, and researchers defending the First Amendment
Subscribe to Malcontent News
Register to feed your head holes with the Malcontent News newsletter.
Submitting your e-mail address gives us permission to send you e-mails. We do not sell or distribute our e-mail lists or share them with third parties.
