Category Archives: Terra Firma

National, Terra Firma

Tropical Storm Theta shatters single season hurricane record

Tropical Storm Theta became the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, shattering all previous records going back to 1850. Located 795 miles southwest of the Azores with winds of 70 MPH, Theta is not a threat to land and forecasted to weaken over the next five days.

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been the most active in history, with 12 named storms making United States landfall so far. Late Sunday, Tropical Storm Eta passed over the Florida Keys, bringing torrential rains and flash floods. In addition to Theta and Eta, the National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the southern Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Eta is almost stationary off the western tip of Cuba. Forecasters currently believe that Eta will struggle to become a hurricane again while remaining a threat from Alabama to Florida.

Local, Terra Firma, Weather

Significant weather event likely on Friday the 13th

The remnants of Tropical Storm Atsani is charging across the Pacific Ocean, on a collision course with the Pacific Northwest. Although Atsani lost all tropical characteristics days ago, the energy and moisture it collected are expected to arrive Friday in a two-day weather event.

The challenge in forecasting wind storms in western Washington is that the center of circulation’s location determines our region’s impact. If the storm passes to our north, close to the southern tip of Vancouver Island in British Columbia, we get the brunt of a wind event. If the storm passes to our south, up the Columbia River basin, Oregon receives the brunt of the wind. An error in the forecasted path of just 50 miles is the difference between a significant wind event and what we like to call “a nothing burger.”

Typically the computer models aren’t in agreement on the “where,” which is the case with the Friday forecast. The GFS model, which hasn’t been the most accurate for our winter weather, forecasts a significant, possibly historic wind event, with the storm passing over Vancouver Island. The Euro model, which was stellar a few years ago but has lost some accuracy, predicts Oregon will receive the most impact.

It is too far out with landfall still 72 hours away to narrow down the track, but here is what we do know. Forecast models put central pressure at landfall between 973 and 983 millibars – that is significantly more intense than Tropical Storm Eta when it crossed the Florida Keys. Barometric pressure this low is typically associated with Category I and Category II hurricanes (our November wind storms have nothing related to the mechanics of a tropical system, even if they are often the remnants of tropical systems).

Wave height forecasts for Friday and Saturday are, in a word, alarming. Some computer models forecast heights of 45 feet off the Oregon coast, with some models predicting higher than 50 feet.

What should you know? For central Puget Sound, there is growing potential for a significant weather event on Friday and Saturday. More specifically to the eastside, the chances for power loss, tree, and property damage is increasing and require a close watch. Along the coast, damaging waves that will cause low area flooding, erosion, and large debris to wash ashore and shift are likely, with the where being the bigger question. The Cascades can expect wind and mountain snow, and a lot of it. The storm track will determine the snow level, but anyone planning to cross the passes this weekend should consider leaving a day early.

Opening the new SH-520 bridge to relieve wind and wave stress is no longer required, and the latest design also prevents waves from over-topping the railings. Also, with reduced traffic in general due to COVID-19, regional travel shouldn’t be too challenging during the evening commute.

The weather model we prefer? That model shows the storm passing to our north but at the lower end of the strength forecast. We will continue to update this growing situation.

National, Terra Firma

Hurricane Eta sets sights on Florida for a one-two punch

Hurricane Eta, the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is set to become the 12th named storm to strike the United States on Monday. At 1:00 PM PST, Tropical Storm Eta was located about 225 miles south-southeast of Miami, with maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predict Eta will cross the Florida Keys at a minimal Category I hurricane.

Hurricane warnings extended across the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortuga, including Florida Bay. Additionally, the weather service announced Tropical Storm Warnings from the Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood, including Lake Okeechobee. After striking the Florida Keys, forecasters predict Eta will hit the Florida coast for a second time later this week.

Hurricane Eta battered Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras before reemerging in the Atlantic as a tropical depression. In Guatemala, government officials reported at least 150 people were dead or missing as devastating floods and mudslides tore through the Central American nation. Official news from Nicaragua, where state media has suppressed information, has been scant with reports of only three fatalities. Honduran officials have reported at least 23 deaths and expect the death toll to rises. The Mexican government said as many as 20 deaths and Costa Rica claimed two Eta related deaths caused by a mudslide.

2020 has been a historic hurricane season, tied for the most storms in a single Atlantic hurricane season and the most named storms to strike the United States in a single season. Eta will mark the 12th storm to make US landfall; a typical hurricane season has roughly two per year. In the Atlantic, forecasters are watching two more tropical waves, creating the potential for the 29th and 30th named storms.

You can follow Hurricane Eta at the NOAA website.

Terra Firma

Historic Hurricane Eta sets sights on Nicaragua

Hurricane Eta is the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, tying the record for the most named storms in a single season. At 10:00 AM PST, Eta was 85 miles from the Nicaragua-Honduras border with winds of 120 MPH and heading west at 9 MPH. Forecasted predict that when Eta makes landfall near Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua, Eta will be a Category IV storm with winds of 140 MPH, a storm surge of 12 to 18 feet, and bringing as much as 35 inches of rain to the mountains of Nicaragua.

Nicaraguan officials order evacuations along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, a semi-autonomous zone with pockets of crushing poverty. Puerto Cabezas is home to 60,000 people, and officials have set up evacuation centers in churches and schools.

Forecasters, state officials, and humanitarian organizations are most concerned about the amount of rain Eta will bring to the region. With the hurricane expected to slow as it approaches Nicaragua, river and flash floods along with mudslides are of grave concern.

Nicaragua suffered more than 3,800 deaths when Hurricane Mitch made landfall in 1998, causing devastating flooding. It took the nation almost 15 years to rebuild infrastructure, and as recently as 2018, was considered a rising star of economic power. In April of 2018, civil unrest rocked Nicaragua when the Ortega regime slashed social security benefits. Widespread protests were met with a violent reaction by government irregular forces, armed militias, imprisonment, torture, and rape. Since the summer of 2018, global economic sanctions and travel advisors have destroyed the budding tourism industry.

Hurricane Eta is expected to cross Latin America and enter the Pacific Ocean later this week, creating the potential for a rare “cross over” hurricane. If Eta can regain tropical status, it would be only the 19th storm since 1842 to cross over and become, technically, a typhoon.

National, Terra Firma

Hurricane Zeta makes landfall in Louisiana with 110 MPH winds

Hurricane Zeta strengthened significantly above forecasted models as a strong Category II storm with 110 MPH winds and higher gusts, making landfall in Cocodrie, Lousiana at 2:44 PM PDT. The compact storm has hurricane-force winds extending 35 miles from the center and was moving at 24 MPH. Evacuation orders along the Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida panhandle had been sparse based on forecast models, and officials now worried about thousands in harm’s way.

Hurricane Warnings, Tropical Storm Warnings, and Storm Surge Warnings have remained unchanged since Tuesday, extending from Mississippi to Florida. As of 2:00 PM PDT, Zeta was 65 miles south-southwest of New Orleans. Storm surge, responsible for most hurricane-related deaths, was forecasted to be 7 to 11 feet at the mouth of the Pearl River on the Mississippi-Alabama border, and 6 to 9 feet at Port Fourchon, located at the mouth of Mississippi River.

Zeta is the 11th named storm to make landfall in the continental United States, and the fifth system to hit Lousiana in 2020. The National Weather Service is tracking three tropical waves across the Atlantic, any of which could develop into the 28th named storm, Eta.

Terra Firma, Weather

Zeta strikes Mexico, expected to return to hurricane strength

Hurricane Zeta made landfall along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico as a Category I storm with 80 MPH winds. Reports indicate minimal damage, with Zeta dropping 4 to 8 inches of rain before moving into the western Caribbean. The brush with land dropped the winds to 60 MPH, once again making Zeta a Tropical Storm, but restrengthening is expected with a collision course set for the Gulf Coast of the United States. 

The National Weather Service predicts Zeta will make landfall as a Category I hurricane with 80 MPH winds on Wednesday. Current projections indicate the eye of the storm projected to land between New Orleans, Louisiana, and Mobile, Alabama. Hurricane forecast is challenging, and residents from the Texas-Louisana border to Florida’s panhandle should be preparing.

Hurricane Warnings extend from Morgan City, Lousiana to the Mississippi-Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning extends from the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Klakoosa-Walton County line in Florida. A Storm Surge Warning stretches from the Atchafalaya River’s mouth to Navarre, Florida, and includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Borgne, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.

Hurricane Zeta will be historic, being the 11th named storm to make landfall in the United States during the 2020 hurricane season and the fifth tropical system to arrive in storm-battered Louisiana.

National, Terra Firma, Weather

Zeta strengthens, Hurricane Watches for Louisiana and Alabama

Zeta strengthened to a Category I hurricane with 80 MPH as it continues its northwestward march toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Officials in Cuba discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings for the western part of the island nation as Zeta moved away. US officials issued a Hurricane Watch from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch includes Lake Ponchitrain and New Orleans.

In Mexico, Hurricane Warnings include the island of Cozumel, battered three weeks ago by Hurricane Delta. Zeta is expected to pass over the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night, then emerge back into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will gather strength. Forecast models indicate that heavy rain from the system could be lashing the Gulf Coast of the United States by Tuesday night.

WDSU of New Orleans reports voluntary evacuation orders in Orleans Parish for those who live outside of the levees and in Jefferson Parish for all residents. Additionally, mandatory evacuation orders for all campers, RVs, and boat residents on Grand Isle. Zeta will be the 11th named system to make landfall on the United States in 2020, a record, and the fourth system to strike the Yucatan Peninsula. 

National, Terra Firma, Weather

Historic Tropical Storm Zeta expected to become hurricane

Tropical Storm Zeta, the 27th named storm in the 2020 hurricane season, is churning in the Caribbean on a collision course with the Yucatan Peninsula.

The earliest 27th named storm in history, Zeta is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall Monday night or early Tuesday morning, local time. Zeta has sustained winds of 70 MPH, just under hurricane strength and moving northwest at 7 MPH. Hurricane warnings are posted along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and Tropical Storm Warnings are posted in western Cuba.

Hurricane battered east Texas, Louisana, and Alabama are once again in the bullseye. With confidence growing, Zeta would be the 11th named storm to make landfall in the United States, with projections indicating the storm will arrive Wednesday evening. If Zeta makes landfall in the United States, it would be a record-setting eleventh tropical system to strike the United States in a single hurricane season.

Officials advise Louisiana residents to prepare for yet another tropical system, with storm surge, wind, and flooding rains.

Terra Firma, Weather

Labor Day weekend forecast is here

The holiday weekend is almost here. I’ve written in the past how meteorological summer is June 1 to August 31, so the first day of meteorological fall is upon us! Seasonal fall for the non-science community is from the Summer Solstice to the Autumnal Equinox, which is very late this year at 12:50 PM on September 23rd! (that isn’t a typo). What I would call spiritual summer in Puget Sound goes from July 5 to sometime in October when the machine that runs fall gets turned on. If you’re confused, don’t worry. You can be pessimistic and look at summer being over this weekend, or see the glass half-full and see a few weeks of summer left, or be optimistic and revel in at least six more weeks of decent weather to come.

What about the long weekend?

If you aren’t a native or a long-term resident, you have probably concluded this summer has sucked. You would be wrong; this summer has been utterly average for Puget Sound. This coming Labor Day weekend is more of the same. If you don’t like the heat, you’ll be happy to know that for Kirkland, we’ll see temperatures through the weekend from 77 to 81, depending on where you are. The highest hills and right by the water will be the upper 70s; our Totem Lake hot spot will eek into the 80s.

What about the sun? Well it won’t be very plentiful, but it won’t be shrouded in low clouds either. We’re looking at mostly cloudy days, that will improve in the afternoon. Saturday will be the most overcast day. It will still be warm, but we aren’t going to see much sun.

Rain, that’s the important one, will it rain? Well, maybe. Looking at the weather models individually and the ensemble, there is a 20% to 40% chance of rain hour by hour from Thursday to Monday (Monday is more than 72 hours out so a bit of a dart throw today). Nothing looks like soaking rain, and we’ll likely get a few stray showers tonight (Thursday). If I were to place a bet on the best chance for some morning drizzle or some rain, Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning looks like the best chance (or worse if you do want to view it that way).

As for looking into the crystal ball a bit further, next week when all the kids will be back in school is looking like more of the same. Some AM gloom that burns off and temperature in the 70s. You know, normal.

Terra Firma, Weather

Weather records are already falling

The weather is not climate.

Climate is not the weather.

We sure have been using a lot of Wite-out and erasers in the record books this year, and after the record high of yesterday, new records were set just as the sun was rising on the 12th of June.

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport set a record for the warmest low temperature for June 12, where the mercury dropped only to 65 degrees for a few minutes. That beat the old record of 56 degrees and was the fourth warmest June low temperature since weather records have been kept in Seattle.

The official forecast is for 89 degrees, but as I’ve written previously the computer models don’t do a good job of capturing the impact of thermal troughs on our high temperatures, and forecast low. We saw that yesterday with an official forecast high of 83, and an actual high of 87.

We have more cloud cover today that helped hold the heat in overnight, and will moderate our temperatures, slightly. That’s the wild card, how much cloud cover, for how long, and does it thicken up during the heat of the day. There is the slimmest chance of some showers drifting off of the Cascades this afternoon, but the humidity is very low so they’ll have a hard time not falling apart as they drift west.

If we don’t get thickening clouds between noon and 6 PM, expect the official high to land between 92 and 93 degrees, the forecast is 89. This will break the KSEA record of 85, and the Federal Building record of 88. As for Kirkland you can expect the entire community to hit 90 day, unless we get some stray drops. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Totem Lake around 93 or 94 -our area hot spot.

Stay cool and remember:

  • Juanita Beach is still closed due to e-coli contamination
  • Area lakes and rivers are still cold, be careful when swimming
  • Don’t leave your pets in your car – not even for a few minutes
  • Don’t leave your kids in your car – not even for a few minutes
  • Haggard? Tired? Stressed? Double check that backseat before leaving home, especially if you have kids or pets – shit happens
  • Bring patience to your commute, this kind of heat will test the mechanical condition of vehicles and expect stalls and breakdown to fuck up our area traffic

Keep it cool!

Malcontent, out