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International News, Russia-Ukraine War

The Most Successful Russian Military Leaders are Demoted, Detained, Dismissed, or Deceased

Since Russia expanded its war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, The Russian Federation Armed Forces have only had a handful of operational successes turn into strategic victories. While Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief-of-Staff Valery Gerasimov have maintained their stature in the Kremlin despite repeated failures, there is a common thread among the men who have been able to achieve victories. Without exception, they are either demoted, detained, dismissed, or deceased.

Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev

Accomplishment: The Capture of Mariupol

General Mizintsev is known as the Butcher of Mariupol and is responsible for 25,000 to 100,000 civilian deaths caused during the 86-day siege of the city. He is accused of setting up the filtration camp structure and ordering attacks on mutually agreed green corridors. On September 24, 2022, the future looked bright for Mizintsev when he was reassigned to Deputy Minister of Defense and charged with overseeing logistics.

Within the Kremlin, Mizintsev was already known to be an ally of Private Military Company Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. In September, this wasn’t viewed as a liability, but as tension between the Kremlin and Prigozhin reached a boiling point, there were signs that Shoigu was leading a quiet purge of Wagner allies. Mizintsev was dismissed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 27, 2023, with no official reason given. There was immediate speculation that Mizintsev had been leaking information to Prigozhin for months about how the Minister of Defense was actively interfering with ammunition and weapons shipment to PMC Wagner. Additionally, there were unsubstantiated claims that Mizintsev had used his position to increase the Shoigu-restricted allocation of munitions to Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut.

A week after being dismissed, Mitzintsev joined Wagner Group’s Council of Commanders and, on May 3, did a frontline inspection of supply, logistics, and Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut. A day after his inspection, Mitzintsev reportedly briefed the Council of Commanders as the siege of Bakhmut entered its ninth month. Hours later, Prigozhin announced he was withdrawing from Bakhmut by May 10 due to a lack of ammunition and the failure of Russian military units to protect his flanks.

The status of Mizintsev is unclear. There were unsubstantiated claims that he was detained after the Prigozhin Insurrection of June 23 and has not been seen publicly since the failed revolt.

Lieutenant General Mikhal Zusko

Accomplishment: The capture of Kherson, the only large Ukrainian city captured intact

General Zusko led the 58th Combined Arms Army, which advanced from Crimea on February 24, 2022, and captured the city of Kherson on March 2 with the loss of less than 300 soldiers. The 58th CAA had assistance from Russian-aligned collaborators in Crimea and Kherson, who helped set conditions for the lightly contested advance. Shortly after capturing the critical Antonovskyy Bridge and occupying the city of Kherson, Zusko’s forces continued to advance, reaching the outskirts of the city of Mykolaiv and passing the administrative border of Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk, where Ukrainian forces established an effective defense. Zusko was rumored to have been arrested on March 31, 2022, accused of dereliction of duty due to mounting losses. It wasn’t verified until June 2022 that Zusko had been arrested for failing to capture Mykolaiv and was accused of providing Ukrainian military leaders with information on Russian positions due to his alleged use of unsecured communication channels.

General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov, Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, and Colonel General Alexander Lapin

Accomplishments: The capture of the Luhansk Oblast, including Severodonetsk and Lysychansk

The story of the three generals is intertwined due to their overlapping commands from April to October 2022.

The Kremlin ended its group command structure after Russia suffered strategic defeats at Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv in late March 2022. On April 8, it named General Dvornikov the first theaterwide commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.

Reportedly, Dvornikov was ordered to capture the remainder of the Donbas – Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts – by May 9. What the Kremlin got on May 8 was news of a disastrous wet crossing attempt at the Siverskyi Donets River near Bilohorivka. At least 500 Russian troops were killed, and over 80 military vehicles were lost, mostly due to artillery. On the same day, Russian troops supported by the Private Military Company Wagner Group captured Popasna. The crossing at Bilohorivka was supposed to create the second part of a pincer surrounding Ukrainian forces defending Severodonetsk.

With the pincers broken, Dvornikov started a brutal war of attrition on May 10, which led to the capture of the Luhansk Oblast at the expense of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps of Russia, Syrian volunteer groups and Chechen Akhmat forces, which were all combat destroyed by the beginning of July. Chechen Akhmat and the 2nd Army Corps of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, now officially part of the Russian Ministry of Defense, never recovered.

Dvornikov fell out of public view in the third week of May, and between May 26 and June 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed him as theaterwide commander, ending his 44-year military career. Although the capture of the Luhansk Oblast didn’t happen while he was the theaterwide commander, his tactics, which closely resembled World War II Russian Marshal Georgy Zhukov’s, did.

General Zhidko was named the new theaterwide commander of Russian troops, but it is unclear when his command officially started and ended. The first proof that Zhidko was the new theaterwide commander was on June 22, when he appeared with Shoigu. Zhidko was reportedly dismissed on July 12, but the Kremlin didn’t publicly name a new theaterwide commander until October 8. While he likely started theaterwide command around June 1, based on the official Kremlin announcements, Zhidko’s tenure as commander of all Russian troops may have been as short as 17 days. There were reports that he was dismissed from command due to a sharp increase in health issues related to chronic alcoholism. Zhidko, age 57, died on August 16, 2023, after a “long illness.”

Intertwined with Dvornikov and Zhidko was General Lapin. Lapin was the commander of the Central Military District of Russian Forces, serving as an area commander through April 8, 2022, before becoming a subordinate of Dvornikov, followed by Zhidko. On July 4, one day after Russia announced it had captured the Luhansk Oblast, Lapin was awarded the title of Hero of Russia by President Putin.

WBHG News analysts concluded in early June that Russia could capture the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in the short term but lacked sufficient forces to hold territorial gains. As Russia’s combat potential decreased due to the nature of attritional warfare and the June arrival of NATO-provided guided multiple launch rocket systems (GMLRS), better known as HIMARS, Dvornikov or Zhidko pulled reserve forces of the Central Military District from Kharkiv and Donetsk into Luhansk. By early August of 2022, the units under Lapin’s command were exhausted, and near Izyum, equipment and ammunition shortages continued to worsen.

When Ukraine launched the Kharkiv Counteroffensive on September 5, Lapin was accused of abandoning his forces and incompetence by Chechen Colonel General Ramzan Kadyrov and PMC Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. On Telegram, Kadyrov wrote, “If I had my way, I would demote Lapin to a private, deprive him of his awards and, with a machine gun in his hands, send him to the front line to wash away his shame with blood.” The Chechen warlord, who has never stepped foot in Ukraine, also accused Lapin of cowardice for commanding from the rear.

A divide within the Kremlin spilled out into public view. Some military leaders and analysts accused Kadyrov and Prigozhin of playing politics and positioning themselves to gain deeper control of the Ministry of Defense. Kadyrov and Prigozin leveraged Wagner Group’s bot farms and faux news organizations, a network of Russian milbloggers, and their own social media channels to run an organized smear campaign against Lapin and to advocate for General of the Army Sergey Surovikin to be named the new theaterwide commander. Although Lapin was never the theaterwide commander, Zhidko’s unclear status created a vacuum, contributing to Lapin receiving an oversized portion of the blame for the failures in Kharkiv, at Izyum, and the Russian retreat from Lyman.

On October 8, 2022, Surovikin was named the theaterwide commander, and on October 29, Lapin was dismissed by President Putin. The only commander to still have a career after his fall, the Gerasimov-connected Lapin was named the chief of staff of the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation on January 10, 2023.

General of the Army Sergey Surovikin

Accomplishments: Successful retrograde operation from western Kherson, building the defensive structures in occupied Crimea, Kherson, Zaporzhzhia, and southern Donetsk, instilling basic discipline into Russian troops

On the same day General Surovikin was named the commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) blew up the Kerch (also known as the Crimean) Bridge. Two days later, Ukraine requested a total communications blackout in Kherson, and the second phase of the Kherson Counteroffensive started 48 hours later.

During his ascent, Surovikin negotiated to execute three campaigns: first, the withdrawal of Russian forces west of the Dnipro River in Kherson; second, executing the same air campaign he ran in 2017 against Syrian civilians, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure; and third, taking the forces that withdraw from Kherson and achieving a strategic victory on another axis by December 31. In the public information space, state media started setting conditions with the Russian people to accept a withdrawal from Kherson as both a goodwill gesture and a move to more strategically advantageous positions.

On October 10, the first widescale Russian missile attack against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was launched. Between November 8 and 11, Surovikin executed a masterful retrograde operation from Kherson, preserving up to 25,000 Russian troops and their equipment, slipping across the Dnipro River and suffering less than 500 casualties.

The biggest legacy of Surovikin’s command was ending the Kremlin policy of sending mobiks with no training to the frontline and instilling military discipline among the Russian troops in Ukraine. This was accomplished by brutally enforcing existing military rules and protocols and creating busy work. Thousands of mobiks were involved in constructing the Surovikin Line, a network of defenses with up to three echelons 35 kilometers deep across occupied Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and southwestern Donetsk. The static defenses have stymied Ukraine’s summer offensive, forcing Kyiv to change tactics twice since June 4 to overcome the Russian network of minefields, antitank traps, trenches, tunnels, and bunkers.

Surovikin also tried to end sending untrained and ill-equipped Russian troops to the frontlines. The quality of Russian forces had improved significantly, as have their tactics, but since August, there appears to be a return of sending poorly trained, mobilized soldiers into battle.

During his tenure as commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine, Surovikin kept his “day job” as commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS), which included air defense. On December 5, 2022, the Engel-2 and Dyagilevo military airfields deep within Russia were attacked by Ukraine. Two Tu-95 strategic bombers and one Tu-22M3 bomber were damaged, and up to six Russian servicemembers were killed. On December 26, Engels-2 was attacked for a second time. During this period, the relationship between the Kremlin and Prigozhin had become toxic, and Russian troops had been in retreat for months except at Bakhmut, where daily advances were measured in the 10s of meters. It had become clear there would be no major victory for Russia for New Year’s celebrations.

On January 11, 2023, Surovikin was relieved of command and named a Deputy of Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. The next day, PMC Wagner claimed they had captured Soledar, with the Russian Ministry of Defense not crediting the Wagnerites in their daily morning report.

Surovikin’s alignment with PMC Wagner was well known, and the relationship between the Kremlin and Prigozhin was already souring in October 2022. In May 2023, when Priogzhin threatened to leave Bakhmut by May 10, there were accusations that Surovikin was warning Wagner’s leader that the Kremlin was actively working to dismantle his company.

During the failed Prigozhin Insurrection on June 23, 2023, Surovikin made a video appeal to Prigozhin to stop his actions while holding a submachine gun on his knee. Shortly after, Surovikin was arrested, reportedly briefly held at Lefotovo Prison, before being transferred to an apartment where he remains under house arrest. On August 22, 2023, he was officially dismissed as the commander of the Russian VKS, and his future is unclear.

PMC Wagner Group Leaders Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmytry Utkin

Accomplishments: The capture of Popasna, Soledar, and Bakhmut and proved Russian penal units could be useful in battle

Private Military Company Wagner Group was asked to support the expansion of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in March 2022, and up to 1,000 mercenaries arrived on March 19. Wagner Group’s first action was in the Hirske-Zolote region and took a leading role in the capture of Popasna. That Russian advance ultimately severed the T-513 Highway between Lysychansk and Bakhmut in early June 2022, strangling Ukrainian logistics.

Also in May, Wagner’s mercenaries joined the Russian forces advancing in the direction of Bakhmut and Soledar from the Svitlodarsk Bulge. In early June, Prigozhin convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow him to create a battalion of penal soldiers assigned to PMC Wagner. One thousand convicts were recruited from Russian prisons and deployed east of Bakhmut in late June. The initial group suffered catastrophic losses of up to 90% killed and wounded, but the Kremlin believed the program was successful. Project K was born, and Prigozhin was given open access to Russia’s 335,000-plus prisoners. From July to December 2022, 49,000 criminals were recruited into the ranks of PMC Wagner. Recruiting of penal mercenaries peaked in October, but the numbers dropped sharply in November as word spread through the prison population of poor training, heavy losses, and penal units used for human wave attacks. In June 2023, the Council of Commanders reported that from March 2022 to May 2023, Wagner’s casualty rates were 82.5%.

While the September 2022 information war against General Lapin led by Prigozhin and Kadyrov was successful, politically, it was costly. The crumbs of goodwill between Prigozhin and Shoigu blew away like dust in the wind. Prigozhin was furious after the Russian Ministry of Defense snubbed Wagner Group in January 2023 and did not credit his mercenaries for the capture of Soledar. Hours later, the Kremlin released a clarifying statement, acknowledging that the ground fighting was accomplished by PMC Wagner and not just “volunteers.”

The political fallout was swift, and it became clear that President Putin was pulling away from his former caterer turned warlord. Shoigu effectively ended Project K, blocking PMC Wagner from further recruitment at Russian penal colonies. Wagner Group was already facing a recruiting crisis among its regular ranks because the pool they would normally recruit from – Russian soldiers – were dying at an alarming rate, didn’t want to return to Ukraine, and were facing stop-loss orders from the Kremlin, which was extending their service contracts. Days later, Shoigu created his own penal unit PMC called Storm-Z.

In February 2023, Prigozhin infamously threatened to leave Bakhmut, releasing a video with dozens of dead Wagnerites in the background, claiming their deaths were caused by the Russian Ministry of Defense withholding ammunition. Reactions in the Russian information space were mixed, with some Russian commanders claiming that Wagner was not being singled out for special treatment, stating that ammunition shortages were an issue theaterwide. Others criticized Prigozhin, asserting that PMC Wagner had been given preferential treatment at the expense of other axes and that the successes in Bakhmut were not due to superior training and tactics but an excess of ammunition that had been normalized. Others defended the mercenary leader, pointing out that the Wagnerites were the only force achieving operational success in Ukraine.

Prigozhin and Kadyrov hinted that the Chechen military leader provided some ammunition to Wagner Group in mid-February. In late February, the stalemate appeared to break when a lull in Russian artillery fire missions in the Bakhmut and Soledar areas of operation ended.

On May 5, Prigozhin made another video again standing in front of dozens of corpses, claiming they were Wagner mercenaries unnecessarily killed. He infamously growled, “Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where’s the fucking ammo,” claiming the Kremlin had cut off his ammunition supplies and that elite Russian forces who were supposed to defend his flanks in Bakhmut were doing nothing. Prigozhin declared that if he didn’t get sufficient ammunition within 48 hours and Russian forces defending his flanks didn’t rejoin the battle, he would withdraw his forces.

WBHG News analysts noted that the April deal between the Russian Ministry of Defense and PMC Wagner, which transferred the defense of the flanks to Russian units while Wagnerites continued fighting within Bakhmut, was meant to destroy Wagner. The Kremlin only tasked Russian forces to hold the existing defense lines and focused on using artillery to protect themselves as Wagner mercenaries fought house-to-house in bloody attritional warfare. Moscow was repeating its policy of using indigenous and proxy forces to fight in the most difficult areas while preserving their own units, and Prigozhin could not or refused to see the true nature of the agreement.

It is also important to note that unlike in February 2023, when there was a noticeable decrease in Russian artillery fire, there was no such decrease in May. Prigozhin wasn’t facing an ammunition shortage. He was facing a staffing crisis caused by an appalling casualty rate and his inability to recruit new penal mercenaries.

The mercenaries that joined the ranks of Wagner Group in October and November who weren’t dead or badly wounded were reaching the end of their six-month contracts. While some analysts believed that Prigozhin would arbitrarily extend their contracts beyond six months, the team at WBHG News accurately predicted that would not happen. Prigozhin was a former convict who deeply believed convicted criminals could create a new life after prison. Prigozhin understood that if he didn’t honor his contracts with the penal mercenaries he always called “his boys,” he would break one of the foundations of the unwritten Russian convict code.

After Prigozhin’s May 5 video, General Kadyrov, who days earlier had called Prigozhin “his good friend” and said that the pair had planned surprises for Ukraine, lashed out at his former partner and questioned his loyalty to Russia. Two days later, while taking another swipe at Prigozhin and his “ego,” Kadyrov claimed that the pair had agreed for Chechen Akhmat to take over the offensive in Bakhmut. In a video posted on his Telegram channel, Kadyrov showed his letter to the Kremlin sent on May 7, which Moscow rejected.

On May 8, Prigozhin announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense told him that if his forces left on May 10, he and his mercenaries would be arrested for treason. Trapped militarily, legally, and politically, he announced the Wagnerites would stay until Bakhmut was captured. At the time of his capitulation, Wagner Group controlled 93% to 95% of the city. On May 20, Prigozhin announced the mission was accomplished, even if the victory claim was dubious. There has never been a picture of Russian troops in the Litak region of Bakhmut, the last Ukrainian stronghold in the southwest corner, and very few pictures and videos from Russian state media, troops, or Wagnerites west of the railroad tracks that split the city.

On June 1, Wagner started its withdrawal, and on June 10, the city was handed over to Russian forces. The Kremlin announced that all Private Military Companies would no longer be commanded independently and would have to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense by June 20, accepting to be under the command of the Russian Federation Armed Forces effective July 1. Up to two dozen PMCs fighting on behalf of Russia had been created since the start of 2023, and the mandate also impacted General Kadyrov. Kadyrov made a clean break from Prigozhin politically, throwing his loyalty back to Shoigu as he announced he was the first leader to sign a transfer of control with the Kremlin.

Prigozhin refused, and as the June 20 deadline passed, it was clear that a clash between PMC Wagner and the Kremlin was inevitable. Late on June 21, he released a rambling video accusing the Kremlin of lying about attacks on civilians in the Donbas, claiming the war against Ukraine was escalated so that oligarchs had more access to natural resources and that the entire invasion of Ukraine was based on a lie. If Prigozhin was the leader of a nation, his words were tantamount to the breaking of diplomatic relations and a prelude to a declaration of war.

On June 22, Prigozhin made a dubious claim that his camps in occupied Luhansk were attacked by Russian missiles, causing over a thousand casualties. A video released as proof across multiple Wagner Telegram channels did not support his claim. Twelve hours later, Prigozhin and Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin led an insurrection specifically targeting Shoigu and Gerasimov while pledging their loyalty to President Putin.

Wagner mercenaries took control of Rostov-on-Don and surrounded the Southern Military District headquarters, barely firing a shot. Utkin led a brigade of Wagnerites in a convoy that advanced 670 kilometers in 12 hours toward Moscow. The so-called “March for Freedom” ended as quickly as it started, with Prigozhin asking his followers to stand down on June 24.

In the end, 15 to 22 Russian soldiers died, and seven helicopters and an Il-22M command and control plane were shot down. Part of a refinery was in flames, one highway bridge was destroyed, and at least three civilians were killed on June 24 when the Russian VKS started to bomb highways indiscriminately.

President Putin was invisible through the insurrection, but after it ended, he called the attempted rebellion treason and promised swift justice. Just 48 hours later, it was announced that Prigozhin would not face criminal charges, and two days later, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced he had created a peace deal between himself, Prigozhin, and Putin. PMC Wagner would relocate to Belarus, where Prigozhin would live in exile. WBHG News analysts never believed this was a firm deal and warned that previous history shows that anyone disloyal to Putin had ended up imprisoned, dead, or hiding after surviving an assassination attempt. Even among Putin’s former closest allies, there had never been an exception to this, and in 2018, Putin told a reporter that “betrayal” was unforgivable.

In early July, a camp to accommodate up to 8,500 Wagner mercenaries was built in Tsel, Belarus, and on July 15, Prigozhin posted a selfie showing himself in his underwear at the Belarus encampment. On July 19, PMC Wagner released a video showing Prigozhin and Utkin addressing a group of Wagnerites about the organization’s future, with the media-shy Utkin declaring in English, “Welcome to Hell!”

But just under the surface, the claims that 25,000 Wagner mercenaries would occupy Belarus to supplement Lukashenko’s army were questionable, and by mid-August, it was clear that if there ever was a three-way deal, it was over. All recruiting was suspended on July 30, with Prigozhin claiming they had “plenty” of mercenaries in their ranks. Wagnerites that had arrived two weeks earlier were leaving Belarus due to deployments in Libya, recruitment efforts by other PMCs, or a lack of pay as Wagner’s finances fell apart.

Prigozhin also stunned analysts and his detractors when he appeared in St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 28 at the periphery of the Russia-Africa Summit. The sting of the non-response from the Kremlin over the dead Russian airman was barely a month old, and some publicly wondered how Prigozhin, who was supposedly exiled, could be walking around in St. Petersburg as a free man.

On August 23, just hours after General Surovikin was formerly dismissed as the commander of the Russian VKS, Prigozhin’s Embraer Legacy 600 private jet was either shot down or destroyed by an explosive device over the Tver region of Russia while it was en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg. It is reported that Prigozhin, who carefully guarded his travel plans, decided at the last minute not to swap to the second private jet operated by PMC Wagner, an Embraer Legacy 650, that was also bound for St. Petersburg.

Ten people were killed, including the pilot, co-pilot, and a flight attendant operating on a one-day contract because she needed to travel to St. Petersburg. Among the seven members of PMC Wagner that were killed,

  • Yevgeny Prigozhin – figurehead and leader focusing on media, social media, psychological operations, and commercial catering
  • Dmitry Utkin – creator of the name “Wagner,” known white nationalist, and the military leader of PMC Wagner
  • Valery Chekalov – Head of logistics operating under the title of “business advisor”

None of the dead have been officially identified, but President Putin referred to Prigozhin in the past tense in a formal statement, as did Kadyrov. The Wagner Group’s Council of Commanders declared they would not make a formal statement until after the Kremlin provided its official reason for the downing of the airplane.

Of the eight Russian military and mercenary leaders who achieved key objectives since February 24, 2022, three are dead, two are held in custody, one is missing, one was dismissed, and one, General Lapin, was reassigned. Putin’s protection of Shoigu and Gerasimov is unwavering despite their unwavering loyalty, despite the documented corruption and repeated mistakes. For any other Russian or Russian-aligned senior military leader who finds success on the battlefield in Ukraine, it comes with the occupational hazard of falling out of favor or, worse, from the sky.

Russia-Ukraine War

Vysokopillya liberated as Russians retreat in Kherson

September 4, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,111 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Kherson & Mykolaiv

Ukrainian forces liberated the strategic town of Vysokopillya in northern Kherson, breaking through the main defensive line of Russian forces and pushing them back 12 kilometers across open wheat fields. The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the defeat, claiming they withdrew from the settlement to prevent encirclement and to protect the civilian population.

Ukrainian forces took control of Arkhanelske and blocked the Russian withdrawal through Novopetrivka, putting the Russian garrison at risk of encirclement, forcing the withdrawal. Videos show that Ukrainian forces took POWs and captured military equipment and ammunition.

Ukrainian forces also liberated Blahodativka, expanding the bridgehead along the Inhulets River. There were reports that Bilohirvka was secured, and troops were pressuring the Russian garrison in Bruskynske. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that troop positions in Kostromka and Bezimenne were hit by air strikes, confirming that Ukrainian forces have pushed at least 10 kilometers into Kherson since August 29.

Ukraine began setting conditions to collapse the Vysokopillya salient on July 27, when it began closing in on Russian positions, attacking supply lines, and destroying Russian air defenses. Despite claims from the Kremlin of devastating losses, an anonymous official said that losses were “lighter than expected.”

Russian artillery hit a warehouse full of ammonium-nitrate fertilizer on the southern edge of Ukrainian-controlled Partyzankse, causing a massive explosion. The blast obliterated the facility, with only a large crater remaining.

Ukrainian forces captured a defensive position near Myrolyubivka after Russian troops fled. A video showed an abandoned BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), an extensive network of shallow trenches, scattered ammunition, and stolen cars and motorcycles. A HIMARS attack destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Tomnya Balka.

Geolocated photos indicate that Ukrainian forces are moved back into the northern edge of Kyselivka, recapturing the checkpoint on the M14 highway.

In Kherson, the Lost World Hotel and Resort, which was being used as a military barracks by Russian troops, was destroyed. Video taken from the Russian military ferry crossing the Dnipro River captured a HIMARS attack on the Antonovsky Bridge and ferry landing. Another attack destroyed the Russian ferry crossing at Lvove.

Dnipropetrovsk & Northern Zaporizhia

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was disconnected from its main 750 KW power line, with power supported by a 330 KW backup line. Due to the failure, the International Atomic Energy Agency was informed that Reactor 5 was disconnected due to power grid restrictions. The IAEA applauded Ukrainian cooperation and the actions of Energoatom employees in a press release.

“Our team on the ground received direct, fast, and reliable information about the latest significant development affecting the plant’s external power situation, as well as the operational status of the reactors,” Director General Rafael Grossi said.

“The great value of finally having the IAEA permanently present at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is already abundantly clear. It is a game changer,” he added.

On September 2, investigative journalists recorded video from the north bank of the Dnipro River, which conclusively showed Russia is firing rockets from MLRS immediately west of the main complex at ZNPP.

Nikopol was shelled and hit by Grad rockets fired by Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). The overnight attack damaged five homes and several barns. There were no injuries.

Southern Zaporizhia

South of Orikhiv, Ukrainian forces have advanced on Nesterianka, Kopani, and Robotyne, while fighting near Poholy continued. The airport outside Melitopol was hit by HIMARS for the tenth time, with five rockets striking the base.

Donetsk

Northwest of Donetsk city, Novobakhmutivka was liberated, and Ukrainian forces are contesting the control of Novoselivka.

A day after the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Pisky was captured, Russian sources reported Ukrainian troops had recaptured strong points on the E-50 Ring Road. Given their location, it is highly likely that Ukrainian troops have regained a toehold in the northern part of the tactically important village, which has been the site of fighting since July 22.

The 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance on Avdiivka and Pervomaiske but could not change the tactical situation. Russian forces also attempted to advance on Marinka and were unsuccessful.

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Bakhmut

The Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Infantry Brigade reportedly launched a counteroffensive in Soledar and was able to push Russian forces back from the gypsum mine area. Geolocated video showed Ukrainian forces clearing the southwest corner of the mine in close combat against Russian troops. Russian forces remain in the KNAUF-GIPS sheetrock factor that straddles Bakhmutske and Soledar. However, Ukrainian forces were able to capture defensive positions on the northern edge of Povoroske.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, fighting continued in Kodema, with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group regaining some lost ground. Kadyrovites with the 141st Akhmat failed to advance on Zaitseve.

Northeast Donetsk and Luhansk

Ukrainian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets River and liberated Ozerne, defeating Kadyrovites with the 141st Akhmat Batallion. Russian forces denied the claims, saying the advances were a publicity stunt for a photo opportunity. President Volodymyr Zeleneskyy verified the capture in his evening television address.

Serhei Haidai, exiled Luhansk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that up to 300 Russian soldiers were killed in Kremennya after a barracks and a concentration of equipment was hit by rockets fired from HIMARS in multiple attacks.

Izyum

Russian forces launched an offensive on Pasika, 14 kilometers southeast of Izyum, indicating that Ukrainian forces had again pushed deep into occupied territory. Russian forces also attacked Dolyna and Bohorodychne, with intense fighting for the latter.

Kharkiv

A Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile used for an air-to-surface attack hit a group of restaurants in the Kyiv district of Kharkiv, destroying the structure and businesses. Over 2,200 square meters of commercial property were destroyed. The missile struck overnight while the popular eateries were closed. Pictures clearly showed the area that was destroyed. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the location was a barracks for the Kraken Battalion after claiming the Battalion was completely destroyed in fighting near Siversk three weeks ago.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported the hromadas of Bilopillia and Krasnopillia were hit by mortars and artillery shells fired from across the international border. There were no casualties reported.

In Chernihiv, at the historical center, an outdoor display of captured Russian weapons went terribly wrong. A grenade launcher was apparently still armed and somehow misfired. Four children were injured, with one in critical condition. Two people have been arrested.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian disinformation about the counteroffensive in Kherson has permeated all Russian sources. There are growing signs that Russia’s defense is not going as well as the Kremlin wants the world to believe.
  2. Russian disinformation appears to be setting conditions for explaining the yet-proven failures in Kherson on NATO weapons and rumors of looming chemical and biological attacks.
  3. Ukraine has quietly launched smaller counteroffensives in Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kharkiv over the last 72 hours, in addition to the counteroffensive in Kherson, supporting our previous assessment that the Russian military has reached a theaterwide state of combat destroyed.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine makes slow progress in Kherson as counteroffensive continues

September 2, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,109 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Kherson & Mykolaiv

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues its media blackout and press coverage restrictions until September 5. Ukrainian armed forces, the local population, and most press sources have honored the request. Gaining verified information while respecting operational security (OPSEC) has been a challenge.

Video emerged of a Russian forward operating base in Shyroka Balka that was destroyed in what appears to have been a HIMARS attack.

Ukrainian forces are finding the most success on the Inhulets River bridgehead. Pro-Russian accounts reported Ukraine had liberated Kostromka and was fighting for control of Bruskynske. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Lozove, Sukhyi Stavok, and Velyke Artakove were hit by air strikes, confirming that Ukrainian troops were present in all three settlements.

Pro-Russian account Rybar reported continued fighting for control of Arkhanhelske and claimed that Russian troops were pushed out of Olhnye and Vysokopillya but were able to push back into the southern parts, where street fighting continued. A video showed Ukrainian forces shelling Russian positions in the city’s southern tip.

The General Staff also reported that Ukrainian positions in Lyubomirivka and Petrivka were shelled, and Khreshchenivka was hit by an airstrike.

Operational Command South reported an additional strike on the Kakhovka and Dariivsky Bridges, including destroying a partially rebuilt pontoon bridge at Darivka. Ukraine claims to have fire control over the remains of the three bridges over the Dnipro. Satellite imagery shows only one ferry operating across the Dnipro at Kherson and no additional work on the barge bridge.

The Ukrainian air force carried out 24 air strikes, which is a significant increase from the 16 missions flown on August 30.

Dnipropetrovsk & Northern Zaporizhia

United Nations inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived in Enerhodar and took an initial survey of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. IAEA Director General Mariano Grossi reported that a team of five inspectors would remain at the plant through September 2 for a deeper audit of the situation. Inspectors were filmed by Russian state media going through the plant and discovering military equipment stored by Reactor 1, as shown in previous undercover videos.

Earlier in the day, minutes after inspectors left Zaporizhzhia city to travel to the plant, heavy shelling of the green corridor started. Thirty minutes later, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine had launched a paratrooper attack on the plant using helicopters. Videos from Enerehodar showed Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters flying over the city – equipment the Ukrainian armed forces do not possess and would not be able to obtain from western sources.

Valentyn Reznichenko, Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, reported that the Chervonohryhorivka hromada (an area of territorial control similar to a county or parish in the United States) was hit by several Grad rockets. A 56-year-old man attempted to escape by driving away, and his car was hit by a rocket. Amazingly he survived and is in stable condition. It was the only area shelled overnight.

Southern Zaporizhia

A HIMARS attack on the Russian-controlled airbase in Melitopol landed ten rockets on an ammunition depot. There were multiple social media reports of a large fire with secondary explosions.

Donetsk

Fighting increased in intensity west of Donetsk, but Russian forces didn’t make any gains. The 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance on Avdiivka, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. All five advances failed. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed for the eighth time since August 5 that Pisky had been captured.

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Bakhmut

PMC Wagner and the 2nd Army Corps of the LNR relaunched their attacks on Soledar and Bakhmutske but remained unable to break through Ukrainian defenses. Wagner Group is suffering catastrophic losses after a month of repeated attacks on Bakhmut but continues to send reinforcements to attack the same Ukrainian positions. Ukraine was able to rotate defending units, with most territorial guards replaced with better-equipped and trained forces.

Further south, LNR separatists continued their attempts to advance on Vesela Dolyna and Zaitseve. Gains were made in Vesela Dolyna but measured in meters, and the attack on Zaitseve was unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, fighting for Kodema continued, with Russian forces establishing their positions in the eastern part of the village. Russian forces made a new attempt to advance on Mayorsk and could not break through the Ukrainian defenses.

Izyum

Russian forces attempted to advance on Dolyna and were unsuccessful. The Russian air force attacked Nova Dmytrivka and Bohorodychne.

Kharkiv

Russia fired a single S-300 antiaircraft missile at Kharkiv city. The missile successfully shot down four parked cars and left a large crater in the ground. There were no injuries.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported the hromadas of Krasnopillia, Nova Sloboda, Znob-Novhorod, Esman, and Kyrykivka, were shelled by Russian forces firing from across the international border. In the village of Maiske, two cars, a garage, and a home were damaged.

Russian forces fired across the international border and shelled Kamianska Sloboda, Zaliznyi Myst, and Senkivka in the Chernihiv oblast. There weren’t any reports of serious damage or casualties.

Daily Assessment

  1. There is enough available evidence indicating that Ukraine is making progress in the Kherson counteroffensive in three locations, despite Kremlin claims that it has already failed.
  2. Russian President Vladimir Putin has set September 15 as the new deadline to capture the remainder of the Donetsk oblast, and in our assessment, that is impossible.
  3. The Russian Ministry of Defense continues its aggressive disinformation campaign about the counteroffensive.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

IAEA inspects Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Russians surrender in Pravdyne

September 1, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,108 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Kherson & Mykolaiv

Fighting is ongoing in four areas: Arkhanhelske-Olyhne-Vysokopillya, south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk border east of Vysokopillya, the bridgehead east of the Inhulets River, and northwest and west of Kherson city.

Geolocated video showed Russian troops surrendering in Pravydne. Soldiers were furiously waving white flags in a video recorded from a drone.

Ukrainian troops have expanded the Inhulets River bridgehead taking control of Kostromka and fighting for control of Bruskynske and Davydiv Brid. Both towns are located on the critical T-2207 Highway, the main Russian Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line) into the northern regions of the Kherson oblast. Ukrainian forces have advanced 9 kilometers since August 29.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released multiple videos showing Bayraktar TB-2 drones attacking Russian positions and equipment, providing additional proof that Ukraine holds air superiority over the battlefield.

Operational Command South reported that targeting Russian troop concentrations, command posts, ammunition depots, and antiaircraft systems were prioritized. Ammunition warehouses in the areas of Beryslav, Heniches’k, and Kherson were destroyed.

Ukraine continued to target the Antonovsky Bridge, the Kakhovka Bridge, and the Dariivsky Bridge. Operational Command South reported that the pontoon bridge adjacent to the Dariivsky Bridge was destroyed, severing the GLOC that connects western and eastern Kherson over the Inhulets River.

The Ukrainian air force carried out 24 air strikes, which is a significant increase from the 16 missions flown on August 30.

Dnipropetrovsk & Northern Zaporizhia

United Nations inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Association arrived in Enerhodar and completed their initial inspection of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Video provided by Russian state media showed inspectors walking past Russian military equipment located in the Reactor One complex. A tentative agreement to leave four to eight inspectors at the plant appears to have been reached, and additional review will continue.

Earlier in the day, minutes after inspectors left Zaporizhzhia city to travel to the plant, heavy shelling of the green corridor started. Thirty minutes later, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine had launched a paratrooper attack on the plant using helicopters. Videos from Enerehodar showed Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters flying over the city – equipment the Ukrainian armed forces do not possess and would not be able to obtain from western sources.

Nikopol was targeted by Russian helicopters and artillery fire in four separate strikes. The city’s city council building was targeted and suffered significant damage.

Southern Zaporizhia

There wasn’t any fighting in southern Zaporizhia we can report without breaking operational security. Fighting in the direction of Polohy and Tokmak continued.

Donetsk

The combat ineffective 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) threw itself at Ukrainian positions west of Donetsk. Fighting occurred Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. All four advances failed.

DNR forces fought positional battles in the eastern part of Marinka supported by the Russian air force, with surviving troops retreating to Oleksandrivka. They also attempted to flank Marinka from the south with a failed advance on Pobjeda.

Russian forces launched an offensive in the area of Vodyane, attempting to advance on Vuhledar from the east. The attack failed, and surviving troops returned to their previous defensive positions.

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Bakhmut

Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), continued attacks on Bakhmut, where the situation remains unchanged. The villages, towns, and cities around Bakhmut were shelled, but artillery fire was reduced compared to yesterday.

Further south, LNR separatists continued their attempts to advance on Vesela Dolyna. The attack was repulsed, and Russian forces retreated to their defensive lines.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, fighting for Kodema continued, with Russian forces making gains in the eastern part of the stronghold. Russian forces continued attempts to advance on Zaitseve and launched a new attack on Mayorsk – both were unsuccessful.

Kharkiv

North of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched an attack on Prudyanka, which was unsuccessful.

Pro-Russian accounts continued to spread rumors that Ukraine will or has restarted the counteroffensive north of Kharkiv. There was no evidence to support these claims.

Russia fired four Iskander-M missiles from Belgorod toward Kharkiv, with one failing after launch, going off course, and exploding in the Belgorod area. Oleg Syniehubov, the Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported a second missile suffered a catastrophic failure during flight. The last two landed in the Kyiv district of the city. Two people were injured, and a college was damaged.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported the settlements of Bilopillia, Shalyhyne, and Karsnopillia, were shelled by Russian forces firing from across the international border. About 50 mortar shells were fired, with more than half landing in Bliopillia. There weren’t any injuries or significant damage reported.

Russian forces fired across the international border and shelled Hai and Bleshnya in the Chernihiv oblast. There weren’t any reports of serious damage or casualties.

Beyond Ukraine

Reports of Russian artillery systems wearing out and ammunition shortages continue to grow. Andrii Morozov, milblogger and soldier in the Russian 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic, reported that ammunition is becoming a critical issue. He additionally condemned the quality of the Russian 3rd Army Corps troop starting to arrive in the Donetsk area.

The Russian Federation retired the 122mm artillery systems in 2019, which have been heavily used in Ukraine. A lack of replacement parts is causing catastrophic failures, also known as banana peeling barrels, and a “hunger” for ammunition. DNR and LNR troops are transitioning to the 152mm D20 howitzers first designed in 1947.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian military leaders are in disarray with rumors of Ukrainian counteroffensives imminent in Kharkiv and Donetsk without any evidence – Ukraine has initiative on the battlefield, and Russia is now having to respond.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense has started an aggressive disinformation campaign about the counteroffensive and realistic expectations for a counteroffensive – the MOD has already been forced to backtrack on false claims made on August 29.
  3. Russian forces are suffering from ammunition shortages and artillery equipment catastrophically failing, raising complaints from soldiers that requests for artillery support are going unanswered.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Ukrainians push deeper into Kherson as counteroffensive continues

August 31, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,107 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Kherson & Mykolaiv

The opening phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson continued, with several settlements confirmed as liberated within the opening hours.

Ukrainian forces liberated Ternovi Pody, 30 kilometers north of Kherson. Sukhyi Stavok was liberated on August 29 during the counteroffensive’s open hours, expanding the Inhulets River bridgehead and likely severing a critical Russian Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line). Geolocated video showed Arkhanhelske was liberated on August 29 by Ukrainian and Pro-Ukrainian Chechen forces. Olhyne and Vysokopillya find themselves in a technical encirclement, with Ukraine establishing complete fire control south of both settlements and Arkhanhelske liberated. We are aware of other settlements liberated but are respecting operational security.

Ukrainian forces hammered Russian positions across the entire line of conflict with artillery, rockets from MLRS, and HIMARS strikes. The Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson, the partially constructed barge bridge adjacent to it, and the ferry were repeatedly attacked. The Antonovsky Mist Railroad Bridge was also struck, along with the Dariivsky Bridge that crosses the Inhulets River. Satellite images show the bridge is heavily damaged with a large hole. The pontoon bridge adjacent to the Dariivsky Bridge was destroyed.

Multiple Russian milbloggers independently reported that Russian requests for artillery support and air strikes went unanswered. Ukraine established air superiority over Kherson, and there were already signs that ammunition supplies were becoming an issue in mid-August.

Dnipropetrovsk & Northern Zaporizhia

Early on August 31, Director General Mariano Grossi reported that the IAEA team was departing Kyiv to Zaporizhzhia and planned to stay for “several days” to evaluate the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Shortly after departing Kyiv, The Russian occupation head of the Zaporizhia region, Yevhen Balytskyi, said that the IAEA would only be allowed to stay at the plant for a day. The IAEA convoy arrived in Enerhodar late on Wednesday.

Nikopol suffered its heaviest barrage in over a week, with Ukrainian officials claiming that over 40 Grad rockets were fired from MLRS launchers located within the nuclear plant compound.

Southern Zaporizhia

Rockets fired from HIMARS destroyed an ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Tokmak in southern Zaporizhia.

The General Staff also reported that elements of the newly formed 3rd Army Corps had arrived in Zaporizhia for deployment to the front. The Russian occupation head of the Zaporizhia region, Balytski, reported that due to “family circumstances,” he has moved from Melitopol to Crimea.

Donetsk

There were only reports of positional fighting and reconnaissance in force west of Donetsk. DNR forces tried to improve their positions in Optyne, Pervomaiske, and, Krasnohorivka. All three advances failed, and DNR units suffered heavy losses.

The General Staff and Pro-Russian accounts reported intense fighting south of Pisky on the E-50 Ring Road and other locations close to the village.

DNR forces fought positional battles in the eastern part of Marinka and retreated to Oleksandrivka after failing to gain new ground.

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Bakhmut

Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), continued attacks on Bakhmut, where the situation remains unchanged.

Further south, LNR separatists continued their attempts to advance on Vesela Dolyna. The attack was repulsed, and Russian forces retreated to their defensive lines.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, fighting for Kodema continued, with the town attacked from three sides. Russian forces continued attempts to advance on Zaitseve and remained unsuccessful. The railroad yards of Mayorsk were shelled.

Izyum

Russian forces attacked Shnurky, 12 kilometers from the known line of conflict south of Izyum.

Kharkiv

Pro-Russian accounts are full of chatter that Ukraine is preparing to restart its counterattack north of Kharkiv. The rumor was started by wanted war criminal and deputy information minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Daniil Bezsonov.

Russian and Ukrainian forces traded artillery and rocket fire along the line of contact northwest, north, and northeast of Kharkiv. Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles slammed into the city center.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytsky, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported the settlements of Khotyn, Richkivska, and Velykopysarivska were shelled by Russian forces firing from across the international border.

Russian forces fired across the international border and shelled Hai and Hremyach in the Chernihiv oblast. There weren’t any reports of serious damage or casualties.  

Daily Assessment

  1. Ukrainian forces have taken the initiative on the battlefield, with Russian military leaders moving assets around the battlefield concerned about a large offensive starting in Zaporizhia.
  2. Multiple Russian milbloggers are reporting that Russian troops in Kherson are not getting artillery support, and the air force is not operating along the line of conflict.
  3. Ukraine has liberated at least four settlements that we can reveal and have caused a technical encirclement of Russian troops in two towns.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Exhausted Russian army struggles to make gains in Ukraine

August 27, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,103 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Luhansk and Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka from Bilohorkiva. They suffered heavy losses, and their defensive line was overrun as they retreated.

Settlements around Siversk were shelled by artillery and rockets, with the Russian air force attacking Siversk and Spirne.

The August 26 HIMARS strike on Kadiivka killed up to 200 Russian airborne (VDV) troops, according to Serhiy Haidai, exiled Luhansk People’s Republic Administrative and Military Governor.

In Staroblisk, Askyar Laishev, a Ukrainian defector and the head of security for occupied Luhansk, was killed when a bomb planted in his SUV exploded.

Russian forces have set up an airbase for Mi-8 transport and Mi-52 attack helicopters in Luhansk.

Bakhmut

Chechen Kadyrovites reappeared, claiming to have an active role in the fighting for Soledar. The Russian air force, PMC Wagner, the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), with Kadyrovites taking the distant rear but claiming glory, launched a large attack on Soledar and Bakhmutske. Neither advance was successful, and it was reported that Russian troops suffered major losses.

A significant attack was also launched on Bakhmut from the east. It was reported that Russian proxy forces suffered severe losses.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces continued their attack on Kodema, supported by artillery and the Russian air force. Russian troops also tried to advance on Zaitseve. Fighting around the railroad yards continued in Mayorsk.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

The Donetsk People’s Republic 1st Army Corps only tried to advance on Nevelske, making two attempts – positional fighting to improve their tactical positions and then an advance, which failed.

Marinka was shelled and repeatedly hit by air strikes. Video released by Russian state media shows that DNR separatists were pushed out of the center of Marinka, with Ukraine holding most of the city again.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, Donetsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Pisky was shelled. We maintain the settlement is contested.

Near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces tried to advance on Prechystivka and were unsuccessful.

In Berdyansk, gauleiter Alexander Kolesnikov, the deputy police chief and head of traffic enforcement, was killed when a car bomb exploded in his vehicle.

Kherson

North of Kharkiv, Russian forces attempted to capture Dementiivka – again – and ended with the same result as the last four attempts, returning to their starting point.

The Azov Battalion shelled Russian positions in Ternova, destroying an ammunition depot.

Russian missiles hit the central district of Kharkiv city and the suburb of Derhachi.

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Izyum

A small group of Russian infantry attempted to advance on Karnaukhivka, over 7 kilometers south of the established line of conflict. They were met with small arms fire and retreated.

The General Staff reported that Russian forces had reestablished electronic warfare arrays near Izyum that disrupt GPS signals.

Russian forces fired artillery and rockets south of Izyum from Brazhkivka to Tetyanivka, while the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukraine fired rockets from HIMARS into Izyum.

Kherson

Ukraine struck the Kahkovka, Antonovsky, and Dariivsky bridges with rockets fired by HIMARS. The same section of the Antonovsky bridge has been repeatedly targeted by Ukraine, causing progressively worse damage. The Dariivsky bridge appeared cratered in a low-resolution satellite image, and Russia reinstalled the pontoon bridge across the Inhulets River.

The Kahkovka Bridge, which was already badly damaged, was struck while a Russian military convoy was crossing the structure. An extremely graphic video showed multiple body parts and torsos in Russian uniforms scattered across the bridge, with the smoking remains of military vehicles in the distance.

Russian forces have dug in defensive positions in Blahodatne [Mykolaiv] and are heavily shelling Ukrainian positions north of the Inhuletskyi Channel.

Dnipropetrovsk

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukraine shelled the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant twice but didn’t provide evidence.

Valentyn Reznichenko, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Nikopol was hit with seven artillery shells knocking out power to 5,000 and damaging a school and several homes. Marhanets was hit by 20 Grad rockets, and an area of dachas (second homes, typically a cottage) was badly damaged in Zelenodolsk.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that they would be sending a team of inspectors to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the coming week.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Esman, Shalyhyne, Khotin, Myropillia, and Bilopillia. Four civilians were wounded in Bilopillia and required hospitalization.

Daily Assessment

  1. Our assessment in early July that Russia had an inadequate number of troops to provide security and administration in occupied Luhansk was accurate, as an increasingly violent insurrection across a third of the oblast is gaining momentum.
  2. The mood of the Russian milblogger community has notably shifted to quiet resignation in the last 24 hours after a series of devastating HIMARS attacks this week and the realization that the Russian military has no solution for their “as advertised” performance.
  3. We maintain that Russian forces within Ukraine are combat destroyed – two small attempted advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv ended in failure, and Russian positions were overrun when they retreated, resulting in a territorial loss.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Russia has exhausted its combat capabilities in Ukraine

August 22, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,098 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Breaking News

Russian cruise missiles struck Zatoka for the twelfth time since February 24. Russian cruise missiles hit the disabled Zatoka Bridge. There are no reports of injuries.

Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces were attempted an advance on Vesele [Donetsk] from Spirne while Siversk and the surrounding settlements were shelled, as was Ivano-Daryivka.

An ammunition depot in Alchevsk was destroyed in a rocket attack launched by HIMARS.

Bakhmut

PMC Wagner Group and elements of the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted to advance into Soledar and Bakhmutske without success.

Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group, supported by the LNR separatists, remains on the outskirts of Bakhmut. The 58th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine shot down a Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft. 

Russian forces continued their attacks on Zaitseve, 10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut, striking from two directions.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces attacked Kodema from three directions but failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

North of Donetsk, an attempt to advance on Niu York ended in failure. DNR separatists fought positional battles near Krasnohorivka but could not improve their tactical situation.

West of Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the DNR attempted to advance on Optyne and Pisky using reconnaissance in force without success.

The village of Nevelske was attacked from two directions, but a lack of tanks made moving across the open fields near impossible for light infantry forces.

DNR separatists tried to improve their positions in eastern Marinka using reconnaissance in force. They also attempted to flank Markina from Luhanske without success.

In Donetsk, rockets fired from HIMARS made a precision strike on a large ammunition depot in the eastern part of the city.

On the Donetsk-Zaporizhia administrative border, Russian forces tried to advance on the Velyka Novosilka suburb of Neskuchne and were unsuccessful.

Kharkiv

North of Izyum, Russian forces launched offensives on Dementiivka and Pytomnyk, but they were unsuccessful.

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Izyum

South of Izyum, Russian forces maintained tradition with attempted advances on Dmytrivka and Bohorodychne using reconnaissance in force. They weren’t successful. Russian units attacked Ukrainian positions in Dibrovne, Dolyna, and Karnaukhivka. They also tried to advance in the direction of Nova Dmytrivka from Brazhkivka. They were not able to gain new territory.

Kherson

Rockets fired from HIMARS hit the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson, producing a major fire and a large explosion. Rockets also hit the bridge and Russian bases in Nova Kakhovka.

Russian airborne troops (VDV) continued their attempts to advance on Tavrijs’ke from Oleksandrivka. They could not improve their positions. Russian forces attempted to capture all of Blahodatne [Mykolaiv] but remained unsuccessful.

Ukrainian forces launched offensives on Novohrednjeve and Sukhyi Stavok, intending to expand the Inhulets River bridgehead. Fighting was described as intense. However, Ukrainian troops did not capture either settlement.

Dnipropetrovsk

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is unchanged. None of the parties involved in negotiations to allow inspectors into the power plant have set a date for when the International Atomic Energy Agency will arrive.

Valentyn Reznichenko, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that Nikopol was hit by Grad rockets fired from the Zaporizhzhia NPP region.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that the settlements of Bilopillia, Khotin, and Velykopysarivska were shelled from across the international border with Russia. There were no injuries, and none of the strikes caused major damage.

In Chernihiv, the settlements of Muravyi and Zaliznyi Mist were shelled. There were no reports of damage or injuries.

Odesa, Crimea, and the Black Sea

North of Odesa, Russia fired five Kalibr cruise missiles into the Odesa Oblast. Two were shot down, with three landing in the area of Maiors’ke. Russia also fired two cruise missiles at the Zatoka Bridge south of Odesa. The bridge has been disabled since early May, and this was the sixth strike on the structure since the start of the war.

Russian air defenses fired at unidentified objects across the Crimea Peninsula, but there were no confirmed drone or missile strikes. Russian sources did not provide any proof to support claims of rockets, missiles, and drones being shot down.

Beyond Ukraine

Russia’s National Republican Army claimed responsibility for the assassination of Daryna Dugina on August 21. The group claims that they planted an improvised explosive device (IED) under the driver’s seat of her father’s SUV.

Daily Assessment

  1. The British Ministry of Intelligence and the ISW assessed that Russian forces had exhausted their combat strength, validating our conclusion from August 19.
  2. Russian officials have likely kicked out Ukrainian employees of Energoatom from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to eliminate evidence of its use as a military base in preparation for the agreed-to International Atomic Energy Agency inspection.
  3. There is a very high chance of multiple and significant punitive strikes against Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure the week of August 22 due to attacks on Belgorod, Russian-occupied Crimea, the assassination of Darya Dugina, and Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations on August 24.

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Breaking News, Russia-Ukraine War

All eyes on Zaporizhzhia, Turkey’s Erdogan pledges support for Ukraine

August 19, 2022, Russia-Ukraine War Update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,095 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Breaking News

Air defenses have been activated in Russian-controlled Sevastopol on the Crimea Peninsula. There are reports of explosions. Available videos on social media only show air defense missiles firing and no strikes in the city or surrounding area.

Northeast Donetsk

There was limited fighting in northeast Donetsk, with Russian forces attempting to advance in the direction of Vyimka from Spirne and Mykolaivka without success.

Bakhmut

Russian forces and their proxies fought positional battles on the outskirts of Soledar supported by artillery and attack aircraft and attempted to advance into Bakhmutske without success.

PMC Wagner Group, Russian airborne VDV forces, and elements of the LNR 2nd Army Corps, supported by the Russian air force, attempted to advance on Bakhmut from three directions without success.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, PMC Wagner Group and LNR separatists attempted to advance on Kodema without success, and Russian forces attempted to advance on Zaitseve from Holyivskyi but could not make any forward progress.

Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions in Svitlodarsk.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

DNR separatists launched their first offensive toward Kamyanka since July 29. Belligerents fought a positional battle, and there was no change in the line of conflict.

Separatists attempted to flank Adviivka by advancing from Novoselivka Druha and were unsuccessful.

There was an attempt to advance into Pervomaiske from the Russian-occupied areas of Pisky. Separatists were unable to move forward, lost ground, and Ukraine gained a toehold in the northern part of the contested village. DNR separatists attempted another open country advance from Lozove toward Pervomaiske and were unsuccessful.

In the southern part of the Donbas, DNR separatists attempted to advance in the direction of Vodyane without success.

Kharkiv

A building on the campus of the National Aerospace Academy in Kharkiv was destroyed in an overnight missile attack. A security guard who worked at the university was killed in the attack.

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Kherson

Operational Command South of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hinted that they attempted an offensive toward Stanislav and Shyroka Balka. The advance was unsuccessful.

The bridge at the Nova Kakhovka was hit again by rockets fired by High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems (HIMARS), thwarting Russian combat engineer attempts to repair the structure.

Mykolaiv

Two Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles being used as ground-to-ground weapons hit the Black Sea University in Mykolaiv on the 18th, and up to eight missiles struck the campus on the morning of the 19th. This is the third attack on the campus in the last four days and one of four universities targeted by Russian missile strikes in the last 24 hours.

Dnipropetrovsk

There is significant concern by the west and global nuclear power monitoring organizations that Russia is preparing for a false flag event at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on August 19. A statement from the Russian embassy in the United States raised eyebrows with specific accusations and the wording used.

Overnight, the settlement of Nikopol was attacked by rockets fired from MLRS located within the nuclear power plant compound.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has agreed to a framework for a visit by an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The agreement was reached after meeting with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres in Lviv.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was also in the meeting and declared, during a press conference said, “We are alarmed by the hostilities at the [nuclear power plant]. We don’t want to experience another Chornobyl. We are and will remain on Ukraine’s side.”

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that the settlements of Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, and Myropillia, were attacked.

Beyond Ukraine

A Russian ammunition depot in Timonovo, Russia, had a catastrophic explosion. Fire and rescue crews were standing off because it was too dangerous to approach the area. Timonovo and Basovo were evacuated, along with a nearby military base.

Daily Assessment

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense made no claims of capturing new territory for the first time since early July, and Russian troops have demonstrated they are incapable of concentrating combat power in an offensive as they did in Luhansk.
  2. We maintain that the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic are combat ineffective.
  3. Russian military doctrine has relied on indigenous militias and mercenaries to do the bulk of front-line fighting, such as in Chechnya, Syria, and the Central African Republic, to minimize official combat losses and weaken rump states – the waste of human capital among Donbas separatists has hobbled combat capabilities.

To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.

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Breaking News, Russia-Ukraine War

Multiple attacks in Russia and Crimea, ammo stored at nuke plant – August 18, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,094 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Breaking News

An open-air Russian ammunition depot in Timonovo, Russia, exploded on Thursday evening, causing the evacuation of two towns and a military base. Videos from the area showed multiple secondary explosions, including rockets, missiles, thermite, and potentially white phosphorus. Fire and rescue crews were standing off because it was too dangerous to approach the area. Satellite images before the explosion show the depot, located 30 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, is 147,500 square meters (1.6 million square feet) and contained dozens of military vehicles.

There are conflicting reports that Belbek Military Airfield in Sevastopol was attacked and had an explosion. Videos from the area showed air defenses had been activated and recorded explosions and sonic booms in the area. A video allegedly showing a large explosion at an ammunition depot was deemed to be falsely attributed to the airfield.

There are fresh reports that the helicopter base in Stary Oskol, Russia, has been attacked.

Russian air defenses were activated at the Kersch Bridge, which connects Russian-controlled Crimea with the Russian mainland. Russian officials claim they shot down a Ukrainian drone. There was no damage to the bridge.

Social media reports are claiming that Enerhodar, where the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is located, is under heavy attack. A video from earlier today showed Russian military vehicles and ammunition stored in the reactor one complex. An earlier video showed military equipment moving in and out of the machine shop area of reactor one, but the amount of hardware inside was unclear. The ammunition is stored in the same building that houses the generation turbine deck for the reactor one complex.

Northeast Donetsk

There was limited fighting in northeast Donetsk, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Vesele supported by the Russian air force from Bilohorivka [Donetsk]. The advance was unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces were able to overrun the first line of Russian defenses near Bilohorivka.

Russian forces attempted to maneuver to Vyimka but lacked the troop strength to advance across the open territory.

Bakhmut

Russian forces and their proxies tried to improve their positions within the KNAUF-GIPS sheetrock factory in Soledar but did not most the line of conflict. Russian forces also attempted to advance into Bakhmutske without success.

PMC Wagner Group, Russian airborne VDV forces, and elements of the LNR 2nd Army Corps attempted to advance on Bakhmut from two directions without success.

Russian forces and their proxies also attempted to advance on the T-0513 Highway through Zaitseve (10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut) and were unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk Bulge, PMC Wagner Group and LNR separatists attempted to advance on Kodema without success.

Russian forces also attempted to advance on Zaitseve from Holyivskyi and tried to capture the Mayorsk border crossing. Neither offensive was successful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

Russia-backed separatists of the DNR were able to advance from Spartak to the edge of Opytne and are attempting to consolidate their gains.

Fighting to reach the village of Nevelske has been intense. DNR used white phosphorus munitions on established Ukrainian positions. DNR forces attempted to cross open territory from Lozove toward Pervomaiske and cross the Ukrainian positions along the E-50 Ring Road. They were unsuccessful.

A railway bridge was hit by an apparent single HIMARS rocket in Makiivka, destroying the tracks, the tunnel, and supports.

Ukraine attacked Russian-controlled Panteleymonovka. One person was killed in the strike.

A Russian ammunition depot in Amvrosiivka was destroyed by rockets fired from HIMARS. The initial blast shattered windows and damaged buildings up to 1.6 kilometers away.

In the southern part of the Donbas, fighting for control of Novobakhmutivka continued, with Ukrainian positions hit by artillery.

Ivan Fedorov, the exiled mayor of Melitopol, said that Russian occupying forces had sealed the city and forcing everyone to go through filtration. The city has been rocked by almost daily partisan attacks, including a series of explosions on August 17.

In Russian-controlled Kyrylivka, Russian ammunition and military equipment reportedly exploded due to insurgent activity.

Kharkiv

Russian missiles hit an apartment building in the Saltiva district of Kharkiv. The building was destroyed in the attack, killing seven and wounding 20. The city was hit a second time in the Slobidskyi District. A hostel was partially destroyed before sunrise killing two and wounding 18.

Rockets also struck Krasnohrad at 4:00 AM while people were still asleep. Two people were killed, and another two were wounded.

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Kherson

Operational Command South of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the General Staff reported conflicting information about Bilohirka on the Inhulets River bridgehead. The General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on the settlement and were unsuccessful. Operational Command South reported that a Russian ammunition depot in Bilohirka was destroyed.

Dnipropetrovsk

The settlement of Nikopol was shelled overnight. A school was damaged, and one woman was hospitalized.

There has been no progress on efforts to demilitarize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres arrived in Lviv for talks with Ukrainian and Turkish officials about the situation in Zaporizhzhia.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that 176 artillery shells hit border towns on August 17. The settlements of Bilopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Esman, Krasnopillia, Yunakivka, Myropillia, Shalyhyne, and Buryn were attacked.

Odesa-Crimea-Black Sea

Reports by Russian state media that the naval airbase in Russian-controlled Hvardeyskye, Crimea, experienced a fire with several explosions was a disinformation campaign. Satellite images show there was no damage, and the base was operating normally.

Daily Assessment

  1. The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic are combat ineffective.
  2. Ukraine continues to destroy ammunition depots, troop positions, and military equipment deep in Russian-occupied territory.
  3. Russian forces launched a series of punitive strikes on civilian targets in Mykolaiv, Zatoka, and Kharkiv, and we expect more attacks through the rest of the week.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Russian offensive to capture Avdiivka falters – August 17, 2022 Ukraine update

[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,093 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. You can visit our Russia-Ukraine War Center to find more news about Ukraine. You can also listen to our in-depth podcast, Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Update, hosted by Linnea Hubbard.

Northeast Donetsk

Russian forces gaining additional protection from the Russian air force withdrew from the area of Ivano-Darivka back to the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.

The former offices of the Ukrainian Intelligence Service in occupied Lysychansk were destroyed in a rocket attack launched by High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems (HIMARS). Governor Haidai reported the building was occupied by the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR). It is claimed over 100 were killed.

On August 15, an ammunition depot in Russian-controlled Rodakove was destroyed in a probable HIMARS attack.

Officers of the 2nd Army Corps on the LNR accidentally revealed the location of their command post in Lysychansk when they posted pictures on social media. The photos included all the metadata, including the precise geolocation.

Bakhmut

Reconnaissance units probed Ukrainian defenses in Soledar near the area of the KNAUFF-GIPS sheetrock factory and returned to their positions. In support of the attempted advance on Soledar, Russian forces continue to attempt to advance on Bakhmutske.

Russian forces tried to move into Zaitseve (10 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut) using reconnaissance in force and were unsuccessful.

In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Russian forces attempted to advance into Zaitseve (north of Horlivka) but were unsuccessful.

Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance through the Mayorsk border crossing after Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions to the north and were unsuccessful. Following an artillery barrage on Shumy, DNR forces attempted to advance into the settlement and were unsuccessful.

Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia

Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps attempted to advance on Nevelske and Opytne. The advance on Nevelske was unsuccessful, and fighting was ongoing in Spartak, southeast of Opytne.

After fighting to secure the Butivka Mine Ventilation Shaft compound on the southeast edge of Pisky, DNR forces abandoned their positions without a fight. We have recoded Pisky as contested based on social intelligence, the General Staff report, and Russian state media reports.

Ukrainian forces shelled a water treatment plant in Donetsk city, causing additional damage to the facility, which was previously attacked on March 16.

Russian missiles destroyed several warehouses and electrical infrastructure in Kurakhove.

In the southern part of the Donbas, fighting for control of Novobakhmutivka continued, with Ukrainian positions being hit by airstrikes and artillery.

Russian forces attempted an advance on Shevchenko and were unsuccessful.

The International Red Cross now claims that its employees were able to visit the Russian penal colony in Olenvika, Donetsk, on two occasions. The revelation reverses earlier claims that they had never been allowed inside the compound. The ICRC stated they had no opportunities to meet with prisoners face-to-face, and Russian proxy forces would not allow unsupervised meetings, violating the Geneva Convention. For background information, you can read our Special Report: Anatomy of a botched false flag attack at Detention Camp 52.

Kharkiv

Members of the Azov Battalion conducted a special operation in Russian-controlled Ternova, northeast of Kharkiv. The unit destroyed two Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicles, an ammunition depot, and an observation post. Russian forces responded by remotely mining the settlements of Peremoha and Ukrainka.

Southeast of Kharkiv, Russian forces launched offensives toward Bazaliivka and Lebyazhe – neither were successful.

Russian forces shelled Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure along the entire line of conflict, including firing rockets from MLRS into the Saltivka District of Kharkiv.

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Izyum

South of Izyum, Russian forces continued their attempts to recapture Mazanivka and were unsuccessful. A new offensive to recapture Bohorodychne was launched, resulting in Russian forces being pushed back.

Russian forces shelled and then remote mined Dibrovne. The General Staff reported that Russian forces were advancing in the area of Nova Dymtrivka and were unsuccessful.

Near the village of Rudneve, Russian forces were ambushed by Ukrainian forces in the so-called “Sherwood Forest” region, west of Izyum.

Kherson

Russian efforts to push Ukraine from the Inhulets River bridgehead failed. Russian Special Operation Forces (SOF) attempted to flank Ukrainian positions in Bilohirka by advancing a platoon toward Bila Krynsytsya. The unit was discovered, suffered heavy losses, and retreated.

Simultaneously Russian forces from Davydiv Brid advanced on Bilohirka, contested the town, and then were pushed back, suffering heavy casualties in the failed offensive.

Russian forces made a second attempt to advance on Novohryhorivka, northwest of Kherson city and were unsuccessful.

There are reports that units of the Chechen Rosgvardiya have been redeployed east of the Dnipro River to prevent deserters from trying to leave their positions in Kherson. There have not been reports of widespread desertion, but morale is reported to be low, with the 25,000 Russian troops west of the river cut off.

Dnipropetrovsk

The settlement of Nikopol was shelled overnight. There was damage to the Nikopol highway and six homes but no casualties.

There has been no progress on efforts to demilitarize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Volodymyr Rogov, the Russian-appointed head of Zaporizhzhia, accused Ukraine of shelling the power plant and damaging the cooling circuit.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Lviv on August 18. Topics will include grain shipments, economics, and the situation at Zaporizhzhia. After the meeting in Lviv, Guterres will travel to Odesa.

Sumy and Chernihiv

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Sumy Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that 130 artillery shells hit border towns on August 16. The settlements of Khotin, Billopillia, Myrolaiivka, Shalyhyne, and Krasnopillia were attacked.

The settlement of Kamianska Sloboda in the Chernihiv oblast was shelled from across the international border. There were no reports of casualties.

Odesa-Crimea-Black Sea

The seaside resort town of Zatoka was struck by two Kh-22 air-to-sea cruise missiles fired by Russian air force Tu-22M3 heavy bombers. The attack destroyed up to seven seaside hotels and over a dozen summer homes. This was the 11th attack on Zatoka since the start of the war.

Russian state media reported that the naval airbase in Russian-controlled Hvardeyskye, Crimea experienced a fire with several explosions. Two squadrons of the 37th Composite Aviation Regiment are stationed at the base.

Zhytomyr

Two Russian Kh-59 air-to-sea cruise missiles fired by Russian Su-34 aircraft operating in Belarusian airspace struck the Ukrainian air force base in Ozerne. Ukrainian officials reported the runway was cratered, and several non-aviation vehicles were damaged.

Beyond Ukraine

Russian officials are blaming Ukrainian Special Operation Forces for destroying multiple power transmission towers in the Kursk region. Russian FSB reported that between August 4 and 12, six towers for electrical distribution carrying from 110 to 750 kilovolts connected to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant were destroyed.

Daily Assessment

  1. Russian forces continue to make operational security errors contributing to Ukrainian successes.
  2. The 1st Army Corps has likely abandoned direct assaults on Avdiivka and Marinka and may be reallocating troops already from Pisky.
  3. Ukrainian military leaders have maintained defensive lines across Ukraine despite having fewer resources and an artillery deficit.

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