Tag Archives: omicron variant

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COVID Variant BA.5 is Becoming the New Dominate Strain in Washington

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Health officials and epidemiologists are sounding the alarm about the latest COVID variants, BA.4 and BA.5, spreading across the United States and quietly driving up hospitalizations at an alarming rate.

COVID BA.5, and its close cousin BA.4, not only share mutations with the highly infectious original Omicron strain but has some of the mutations that caused the Delta variant to attack the deep lung tissues and additional adaptations that escape an immune response, including memory T cells. Data out of South Africa for BA.4 showed the R0, a measure of how easily a contagious disease can spread, was 18.6, with a real-world R0 of 10.0 to 12.0.

Previous variants including the original Omicron strains required 15 to 60 minutes of close contact to build up a viral load to cause an infection. The new strains, which represent 40% of new cases in Washington state according to the University of Washington Virology Lab, can be passed along through casual contact. Although masks are not required by regulations anywhere in the United States, healthcare professionals are urging people to mask up again. Including those who had previous infections and the vaccinated.

The current vaccinations are based on the original strain of COVID, which has since mutated tens of thousands of times, producing five major waves that swept the planet. Alpha, Delta, Omicron, Omicron BA 2.12.1, which caused a spike of new cases in Washington in late May and June, and now Omicron BA.5. Each mutation has adapted to bypass our immune systems and therapeutics. COVID variant-specific boosters are expected to be available in the fall.

It is a common belief that viruses always get weaker when they evolve, but that isn’t true. COVID, SARS, and MERS are all part of the coronavirus family which includes the common cold. SARS has a mortality rate of 1% to 2% while MERS, which evolved from SARS, has a mortality rate as high as 40%. While a common cold could be equated to a lazy housecat, COVID is closer to a male lion and MERS would be akin to a pack of starving lions. Cats and lions are felines – a scratch from a cat hurts while a scratch from a lion can kill. COVID lies between SARS and MERS.

The ability to spread easily isn’t the only evolution in BA.5 that has the medical community so worried, pre-print studies show it can evade all forms of previous immunity. Many people who had never caught COVID fell ill in May and early June, with a spike in BA.2.12.1 cases. Before BA.5 became the new dominant strain, a recent infection offered on average five months of enhanced immunity, but BA.5 is infecting people who had COVID just weeks earlier. Although other strains could evade front-line defenses, memory T cells weren’t fooled. Many who had previous infections or are vaccinated had mild symptoms that didn’t require seeing a doctor or hospitalizations. Data indicates that isn’t the case for BA.5, which can slip past the secondary immune response.

In Washington, new case rates are similar to the end of December, when the Omicron surge brought regional hospitals to their knees a few weeks later. Experts believe the case rate is much higher due to widely available home tests which go unreported, the end of COVID testing for international travel, and most employers dropping frequent COVID testing requirements. Fewer mild and asymptomatic cases are being captured. In San Francisco, wastewater data shows that COVID-19 has quietly spread at a faster rate than earlier spikes.

According to the Washington State Department of Health, area hospitals are already strained, in a situation eerily similar to December 2021. Statewide only 8% of acute care beds and 10% of ICU beds are available. Twelve percent of acute care patients have COVID, while ICU occupancy remains at a manageable 7%. A common question is if someone is hospitalized “with” COVID or “due” to COVID, but the point doesn’t matter. A patient that has COVID has to be treated differently and requires more attention, which saps already thin medical resources.

So far, the number of patients on ventilators remains far lower than in previous waves. While immunity to prevent symptomatic infection has declined significantly, protection from severe COVID symptoms appears to be holding.

As with previous waves, people 18 to 34 have the highest case rate while those 65 and older have the highest hospitalization rate. Officially, only three counties in Washington don’t have a “high transmission rate” for COVID.

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Omicron COVID Variant Keeps Evolving, Transmission Rates Increasing in Washington

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) updated criteria for measuring the impact of COVID in a region, 15 Washington counties currently have high community levels of COVID-19. In March, the CDC changed the criteria for defining low, medium, and high to a formula that evaluates new cases, new hospital admissions, and the percent of in-patient staffed beds treating COVID-infected patients.

The University of Washington Virology Lab reported on Monday that test positivity was 15.4% from an Independence Day holiday reduced sample set. The rapidly evolving Omicron variant of COVID has eliminated the tidal waves of new cases that came in spikes every four to six months to a steady but controllable flood.

On November 28, 2021, the first Omicron cases were detected in Washington. A series of superspreader events over the weekend of December 4 in southwestern Washington spread new Omicron cases to 14 counties in less than ten days. By mid-January, Washington hospitals were on the precipice of moving to crisis standards of care.

The Omicron BA.2 variant was detected at the end of January and less than two months later had replaced the original Omicron strain accounting for 84% of new cases. However, on June 12, BA.2 was down to 17% of new cases. The BA.2 variant was replaced with the highly transmissible vaccine and prior immunity resistant BA.2.12 strain, which is already being replaced by BA.5.

Omicron BA.5 is a very vaccine and prior infection immunity resistant variant with similar genetic mutations to the Delta strain. The original vaccines remain effective at preventing hospitalization and severe illness but are offering diminished protection from catching COVID. Prior COVID infections, even from Omicron strains, provide little immunity to the new strains, especially BA.5.

Although the number of people infected by COVID is increasing, the number of deaths remains low due to many people’s broad baseline immunity. Researchers are still trying to understand the impact of long-COVID, defined as experiencing COVID systems or COVID-related complications more than 21 days after infection. It is estimated that 20% to 33% of people infected by coronavirus experience long-COVID. Symptoms can range from “COVID toe,” the loss of taste and smell, to debilitating migraines, joint pain, and fatigue.

Fifteen counties in Washington are feeling the sting from high community transmission of coronavirus, new hospital admissions, and the percentage of hospitalized patients with COVID. Asotin, Chelan, Clallam, Columbia, Douglas, Ferry, Grant, Grays Harbor, Lewis, Lincoln, Pacific, Pierce, Spokane, Thurston, and Walla Walla Counties have been advised to take increased protective measures, including wearing masks indoors.

King County didn’t make the list, but 4,900 people are being tested for COVID daily, and 20.2% of those tests return positive. The figure is artificially high compared to last year when home testing wasn’t widely available, and international travel required a negative PCR test. Additionally, many employers require repeated negative PCR tests in some job fields. Today, most PCR tests are only given to people suspected of having symptomatic COVID and to frontline healthcare workers with recent close exposure.

More troublesome is daily new hospital admissions for COVID cases have climbed to 25 a day in King County, a 54% increase from last week. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, spiking two to four weeks after a new case surge.

Many area hospitals are once again at or over capacity. A combination of acute staffing shortages, a return to everyday life, increasing accidents and work-related injuries, and hundreds of patients who can’t be released from the hospital because there aren’t enough transitional and long-term care facilities, has created a perfect storm. The bump in new COVID cases is adding to the problem.

COVID transmission remains low in outdoor, open-air settings. A driver of the increasing number of new COVID cases and hospitalizations has been the region’s cool and wet non-existent spring, keeping people indoors and windows closed. Even with the first days of summer here, the high temperature in Seattle struggled to reach 58 degrees on July 3rd.

While BA.5 is on track to become the next dominant strain in Washington, a new strain is already taking over on the other side of the planet. Omicron BA 2.75 was sequenced in India and is rapidly spreading across the region.

Health and Lifestyle, Local

Yellow Alert! COVID makes a comeback in Washington state

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) COVID cases have steadily increased in King County, moving the region to the CDC’s medium threat level as test positivity, new cases, and hospitalizations rising again.

COVID variant Omicron has split off into a number of variants, with the current surge being driven by BA.2. According to the University of Washington Virology Lab, 85% of new cases are BA.2, so-called “stealth Omicron” and the statewide case positivity rate is 12.4%. In King County, test positivity has grown from 3.2% on March 16 to 11.6% on April 17. Hospitalizations have increased over 100% in the last week, growing from an average of 32 people countywide a week ago to 70. Area hospitals are not strained by the current round of infections, and regional numbers aren’t near the levels seen from the Delta surge in the fall of 2021, and the Omicron surge in January 2022.

The increase started four days after the Washington State Department of Health lifted the mask mandate on March 12 and companies such as Microsoft announced a return to the office.

A combination of relaxed public safety measures and waning vaccine and disease acquired immunity are contributing to the new increase. The Omicron BA.2 variant has a much higher reinfection rate than other variants, estimated at 10% to 15%, and is more contagious than the original Omicron strain.

CDC guidelines recommend that a region at COVID-19 Community Level Medium (yellow) recommends that those at high risk for severe COVID to discuss with their primary healthcare provider whether they should wear a mask. Additionally, anyone who is exhibiting COVID systems should get a PCR test.

Common symptoms of Omicron BA.2 are somewhat different from the original, Alpha and Delta variants. Additional symptoms to look for include:

  • Runny nose
  • Sore throat – moderate to severe
  • Diarrhea, gastric upset, particularly in children
  • Fatigue that is profound and severe, particularly in children

This is in addition to more typical COVID symptoms that include fever and chills, muscle and body aches, dry cough, shortness of breath/difficulty breathing, headache, and a sudden loss of taste and/or smell.

Health and Lifestyle, Local

Washington ending the statewide outdoor mask mandate as COVID cases and hospitalizations decline

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) Governor Jay Inslee announced that the outdoor mask mandate would end on Feb. 18 and that it is, “no longer a matter of if, but when,” for the end of the indoor mandate.

The outdoor mask mandate was implemented on Sept. 13, as hospitalizations for the delta variant peaked in Washington. The requirement applied to large outdoor events with 500 or more people. Enforcement of the outdoor mask requirement was close to non-existent, with Lumen Field full of maskless fans through the fall and early winter, cheering for the Seattle Seahawks.

Data has shown that COVID transmission rates are significantly lower in outdoor settings and areas with excellent air circulation.

The statewide indoor mask mandate, that was brought back on Aug. 19 still stands. Gov. Inslee said that he was taking a wait-and-see approach, and would revisit ending the indoor mask mandate as early as next week. California, Illinois, New York, and Oregon have ended or announced they are ending indoor mask mandates this week.

Washington repealed almost all COVID restrictions on Jun. 30 as hospitals emptied of COVID patients and the statewide vaccination rate for residents 16 and over approached 70%. Less than two months later the state was facing record hospitalizations due to the more transmissible and virulent Delta variant, just as school was restarting.

Washington never fully exited the delta wave when the first omicron case was detected on Nov. 29. More than a half-dozen high school wrestling matches on Dec. 4 in Pierce and Thurston Counties became super spreader events. New cases of omicron exploded from the Canada border to the Columbia River flooding Western Washington hospitals during the last week of December. The combination of holiday travelers and lower vaccination rates in Eastern Washington created a secondary wave in January.

New COVID cases are declining across the state and hospitalizations have peaked on both sides of the Cascades. Despite the improvement, there are still over 1,700 COVID patients in Washington hospitals according to the Washington State Hospital Association.

With the hospital situation improving, the statewide pause of “non-urgent” surgical procedures announced last month, will come to an end on Feb. 17. When Gov. Inslee announced the 28-day pause on Jan. 20, many hospitals had already taken the extraordinary measure independently.

At the peak of the omicron wave, Washington medical facilities were brought to the brink of collapse. The darkest days were during the week of Jan. 16. In an unprecedented move during the COVID pandemic, a handful of patients were transferred by aircraft out of Western Washington to Eastern Washington and Montana hospitals. On Jan. 19, the demand for hospital beds was outstripping all available resources.

To avoid moving the state to crisis standards of care, the Washington Medical Coordination Center (WMCC) implemented a protocol called guaranteed-acceptance hospital rotation. During guaranteed-acceptance hospital rotation, larger regional hospitals took turns taking accepting transfer patients and finding some way to care for them. By Jan. 23, the peak of the crisis had passed, and the protocol was ended.

The WMCC, which operates out of Harborview Medical Center, provides assistance to hospitals that need to move patients when the institution has exhausted all other options.

In Idaho, new COVID cases peaked earlier this week with test positivity reaching 34%. Southern Idaho has been operating under crisis standards of care for almost a month, and some patients from the Boise area have been arriving in Eastern Washington hospitals. Historically Alaska, Idaho, Eastern Oregon, and Western Montana have relied on Washington hospitals to take in critically ill patients and specialized cases.

The positivity rate for COVID tests in Washington has dropped to 18%, according to the University of Washington Virology Lab. So-called stealth omicron has been detected in Washington, but there has not been an increase in cases.

Virologists believe that between the statewide vaccination rate and how transmissible the Omicron variant is, many residents have some degree of immunity. The United States Centers for Disease Control is not supportive of repealing mask mandates because nationally new case rates remain extremely high, with over 110,000 hospitalized COVID patients.

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As COVID rages, what’s next for Washington state

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) Washington state has set new records for COVID cases and hospitalizations, straining every aspect of life and leaving many to wonder, what is next?

Malcontent News has been tracking the Omicron wave in South Africa and the United Kingdom and using the data from these nations to build models for Washington. The path the current surge is taking aligns closely with the progression in South Africa.

New Cases

It took 28 days for the first SGTFs to show up in PCR tests in South Africa at a significant number, to the peak in cases. If Washington follows the same path, new cases in the state should peak on Jan. 17. The last update from the Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH) was supportive of an approaching statewide peak. An analysis of new case data indicated that the Olympic Peninsula, Central Puget Sound, the South Sound counties out to the Pacific Coast have already peaked. In Eastern Washington, many areas are still seven to ten days away.

In South Africa and Europe, cases declined rapidly. If Washington follows the same pattern, new daily cases will be 50 percent of peak by Feb. 2, and then drift to a plateau of 30 to 35 percent of the peak. The plateau will hold until Feb. 14, before starting to decline again.

Washington moved to test only symptomatic and close contacts on Jan. 4. Over the weekend Seattle Children’s Hospital reported they were incapable of testing most pediatric cases for COVID at urgent care clinics, reserving the dwindling supply to only the sickest of patients. The University Washington Medicine is struggling to test staff and immediate family, in compliance with the United States Centers for Disease Control CDC) guidelines.

Clark County residents have appealed to the state for additional testing resources and more access to booster shots. Among the eight locations receiving National Guard support by Jan. 24 for additional testing resources, Vancouver, Washington was not among the locations.

The University of Washington Virology lab is struggling to provide test results to Washington, and some Oregon healthcare providers, processing 12,000 to 14,000 a test a day. On Sunday, 31.9 percent were positive, creating some doubt that a peak in cases has arrived.

Hospitalizations

Hospitalizations are a trailing indicator. We predicted on Dec. 26. that Washington hospitals would run out of available resources by Jan 15. Governor Jay Inslee deployed the national guard and suspended all non-emergency surgeries on Jan. 13, to support overwhelmed hospitals.

In South Africa, seven percent of new Omicron cases resulted in hospitalizations. The unvaccinated made up 82 percent of all COVID hospitalizations. That rate was between 22 and 31 percent of the earlier Delta wave. The exact difference is hard to track after South Africa changed its testing criteria on Dec. 24, testing only people who were symptomatic or had close contacts. Adjusting for South Africa’s higher hospitalization rate versus the United States, and accounting for the lower hospitalization rate among Omicron patients, we initially estimated Washington would experience a 1.14 to 1.34 percent hospitalization rate. Currently, it is between 1.8 and 2.4 percent depending on the hospital region.

The single biggest factor that impacts the outcome of a COVID infection is age. In South Africa, only 5.7 percent of the population is over 60, while 34.1% is under 19. Although it is true that only 26% of the population is fully vaccinated, in Gauteng Province, which bore the brunt of the Omicron wave, 44 percent of the population is fully vaccinated.

In Washington, Stevens, Pend Oreille, Skamania, Asotin, Ferry, Whitman, Klickitat, and Columbia Counties have lower vaccination rates. According to the WSDOH on Thursday, 80 percent of all COVID hospitalizations statewide were unvaccinated – which mirrors the data released from South Africa on Sunday.

In South Africa, the surge of new hospitalizations peaked 10 to 14 days after the new cases reached a peak. If Washington follows that path, new hospitalizations will peak at the end of January.

Despite reports that many cases resulted in short hospitalizations, this was among vaccinated individuals. South Africa found that among unvaccinated individuals, the progress of illness was no different than prior strains of COVID.

The number of hospitalized COVID patients peaked in South Africa on Dec. 31 and remained almost unchanged through Jan. 6. Currently hospitalized coronavirus patients in the African nation are still at 83 percent of peak. The decline has been slow.

For Washington hospitals, this will be an insurmountable challenge. Although the governor announced a pause in elective surgeries statewide on Thursday, many hospitals had already voluntarily taken that step to expand resources. MultiCare reported ten days ago they were forced to implement CDC crisis staffing standards, having COVID positive workers who are experiencing mild to moderate symptoms continue to work.

An analysis of available hospital resources indicated that additional emergency staffing and converting PACUs to COVID wards added 60 to 75 acute care and 10 to 15 ICU beds statewide. With over 250 new COVID patient admissions a day, that added capacity was likely wiped out over the weekend.

If Washington follows the same hospitalization trend, by Jan. 26 the worst of the surge will be hitting our facilities. The number of COVID patients will peak on Feb. 4, and hold until Feb. 10. Although a decline will be accelerating by Feb. 20, a load of 83% of the peak would be unsustainable.

On Friday the WSDOH reported there were 2,135 COVID patients in Washington hospitals, an all-time record. Hospitalizations are increasing 50 percent every week. The IHME model projects almost 4,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on Feb. 4, either in acute care or the ICU. If Washington follows South Africa, the number would reach 5,038 and then sustain at that level for two weeks before dropping to 4,000.

Last Monday patients were being transferred out of King County to Moses Lake, Richland, and Missoula, Montana. King County hospitals, University of Washington Medicine, and Harborview Medical Center are caring for a record number of COVID patients. In Spokane, Providence and MultiCare hospitals can’t take transfers. Doctors reported angry and desperate phone calls from rural hospitals trying to move patients to larger facilities.

MultiCare and Providence hospitals on both sides of the mountains have deployed tents again. In Everett, Providence Hospital was treating patients in the emergency department waiting room and the halls are lined with patients waiting for beds.

Deaths

Looking to South Africa, the number of deaths from Omicron was significantly lower compared to Delta. The age of the population, a 66% vaccination rate for those over 50, a historically lower COVID death rate compared to Europe and North America, and more available resources contributed to the better outcomes. Additionally, it is summer in South Africa.

COVID-related deaths started to increase on Dec. 11. It is unknown if deaths have reached a peak yet, but on Jan. 16, the 7-day moving average was 105 deaths a day. All signs in South Africa indicate the Omicron surge is reaching its finality.

In Washington, the population is older and in poorer health. Vaccination rates are higher, but almost one-third of the entire population is not only unvaccinated but politically indoctrinated into the status being part of their identity. They not only dismiss vaccination but all proven public health measures such as indoor mask wear.

Unlike prior waves in Washington, Omicron overwhelmed the larger and better equipped Puget Sound region facilities first. Idaho is starting to surge with new cases and Oregon is straining under its own tidal wave of cases. COVID patients in Eastern Washington will have fewer options than ever before.

If Washington follows the same as South Africa, COVID-related deaths will start to peak in mid-February.

Services and Infrastructure

It is estimated eight to ten percent of all American workers are sick, caring for a sick family member, or quarantining. The United States was already dealing with a worker shortage in 2021, which has been made worse by Omicron. By early February, up to 25 percent of all Washington workers could be sidelined with COVID.

Some of the impacts have already rippled through the region. Empty store shelves, recently restocked after the mountain passes reopened, will struggle to stay full. Pharmacists are warning people to refill their medications now, unsure of their ability to serve the community and have an adequate supply of pills.

Postal workers are driving routes for 12 to 16 hours to fulfill deliveries, and school districts are looking for parent volunteers or moving to virtual learning. In some cities such as Seattle, students have staged walkouts due to high infection rates. In Lakewood, the Walmart Super Center was forced to close for three days for a deep cleaning after 63 workers became sick with COVID.

The day-to-day impact for everyone will include school and daycare closures, spotty store shelves, delayed deliveries, and businesses forced into short-term closures due to a lack of staff. The economic fallout could last for much longer.

Without a dramatic increase in support, state healthcare workers and Washington residents will face a brutal five to six weeks where only the absolute sickest individuals will be able to get medical services, and basic goods and services will require patience to find.

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Gov Inslee suspends surgeries and deploying national guard to support COVID overwhelmed hospitals

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[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) Washington Gov Jay Inslee and Washington State Secretary of Health Dr Umair Shah announced that all Washington hospitals will suspend non-urgent procedures and 100 national guard members are being deployed to support COVID overwhelmed hospitals.

Earlier on Thursday Washington State Hospital Association Executive Vice President Taya Briley, RN said, “This is the worst situation hospitals in Washington state have been in compared to any prior point during the pandemic,” adding, “We are experiencing a crisis across our medical system.”

As part of Gov Inslee’s announcement 100 National Guard troops are being activated to provide additional testing resources at four hospitals. Additionally, they are adding funding for 200 more traveling healthcare workers, expanding the contract to 1,200 specialists. Gov Inslee told reporters that 875 traveling medical workers were already deployed. The Adjutant General of the Washington State National Guard Major General Bret Daugherty added that 17 national guard members were already deployed and the rest would be in place by Jan. 24.

Last week the Washington State Medical Association appealed for National Guard support and aid in discharging hundreds of hospitalized patients that have no placement in long-term care facilities. To provide assistance, the state will be providing funds to add another 200 staff in long-term care facilities, which would help place up to 240 patients out of hospitals. Another 75 people still hospitalized are also awaiting guardianship, and the state will move to streamline that process. No timeline was given on how fast that would happen.

The impact of these changes is questionable. Currently, over 250 people a day are being admitted to Washington hospitals due to COVID. That number is forecasted to double over the next three weeks according to the IHME.

The Delta Wave over the summer never reached a true conclusion. In early December there were still 610 COVID patients in Washington hospitals. Hospital occupancy rates were also high because elective surgeries, cancer treatments, and other critical care had been postponed for almost two years. Additionally, pediatric hospitals were close to full due to RSV, a common childhood viral infection.

The first Omicron case was detected in Washington on Nov. 29. Over the weekend of Dec. 4, several high school wrestling matches turned into super spreader events with cases across the entire I-5 corridor and across the Cascades to Yakima. Unlike previous waves, Western Washington hospitals filled up first. During the previous weekend and on Monday, some patients were transferred by air ambulance out of Puget Sound to Moses Lake, Richland, and Missoula, Montana.

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Washington hospitals are on the brink as COVID cases spiral upward

Editor’s Note: An early version of this story reported that the first Omicron case detected in the United States has been changed from Dec. 15 to Nov. 15.

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH) reported the 7 day moving average for new COVID cases had jumped to 1,047.9 over the weekend, obliterating previous records. There were 1,773 people hospitalized with COVID across Washington on Sunday, just shy of the previous record set on Sep. 6, 2021.

With an estimated 242 new COVID-related hospitalizations a day, hospitals in the Evergreen State are on the brink of running out of beds and staff. The I-5 corridor from the Canada border to the Columbia River has the highest case rates in Washington, sparked by several super spreader events in Thurston and Pierce Counties on Dec. 4.

COVID cases have exploded in Eastern Washington, including Spokane, Yakima, and Moses Lake. New cases are forecasted to peak in King County by the end of this week but are expected to continue to surge in Eastern Washington.

The updated IHME forecast model is catastrophic for Washington, projecting 3,189 acute care and 804 ICU patients hospitalized with COVID by Feb. 4. Malcontent News estimates there are 375 staffed acute care and 95 ICU beds available in Washington state, with a coming surge of 2,000 more patients in less than a month.

The Washington State Hospital Association made dire predictions last week. Dr. Francis Riedo, medical director for infection control and prevention at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland, told reporters that the state has “never been closer” to moving to crisis standards of care.

In the same briefing, Dr. John Lynch, medical director of Harborview Medical Center’s infection control program, said that UW Medicine and Harborview Medical Center had more COVID patients under care than at any previous point in the epidemic.

The situation is already dire for Puget Sound hospitals, will more than 97 percent of acute care beds occupied. King County Public Health reported 255 new COVID hospitalizations from Friday to Sunday – a rate of a new hospitalization once every 28 minutes. Hospitalizations in King County have surged 110 percent in a week as new cases skyrocket.

Earlier projections based on case data from South Africa and the United Kingdom estimated that King County hospitalization rates would be by 20% to 30% from the previous Delta wave. Projections reduced the percentage of COVID cases that resulted in hospitalization from 4.7% to 1.14%. Based on data from the first week of January, the rate is almost double – 2.13% – driving hospitalizations to a higher level than previously forecasted.

EvergreenHealth in Kirkland reported 44 hospitalized COVID patients, including one pediatric patient and another four in Monroe. A majority, 70 percent, were hospitalized due to COVID. The remainder is hospitalized for other reasons and co-infected with coronavirus. Five patients are fully vaccinated with boosters, including one in intensive care.

On Monday night, Seattle Children’s Hospital advised parents that its four walk-in urgent care clinics would not accept patients without an appointment due to the unprecedented patient load.

The Washington State Medical Association appealed to Gov. Jay Inslee to declare a crisis and deploy the national guard to support area hospitals. Previous options, including stopping elective surgeries, limiting day procedures, and “boarding” patients in emergency departments, are already being done.

“The time has come to admit that stopping electives and non-urgent care is not enough. We must declare the crisis that our health system is in,” the Jan. 6 letter stated. Cassie Sauer, the Washington State Hospital Association CEO, also signed the letter.

Unlike Idaho, Montana, and Alaska, which had to use crisis standards of care last fall, Washington state will not allow a single facility to move to the emergency protocols. The declaration would come from the state and only occur after all possible options to extend services were exhausted. Under crisis standards of care, patients could be denied care based on need, survival chances, and available resources. Washington developed computer software with Massachusetts and Wisconsin to determine who would receive care. Last week, Oregon announced it was adopting the same computer program.

The physical, mental, and emotional toll of two years of a COVID crisis has decimated the ranks of hospital workers across the country. Omicron is highly contagious and has significant vaccine escape, resulting in hospital workers being sickened. As hospitalizations have surged in the first ten days of January, the number of staffed beds available has slowly declined.

On Thursday, leadership at MultiCare, which runs 11 hospitals across Washington state, reported they had moved to crisis staffing standards in Western Washington. The standard, announced by the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on Dec. 23, can require workers who are sick with COVID to continue to work if necessary to continue to provide patient care.

The Omicron variant arrived in the United States on Nov. 15 and has shattered all previous records for new cases, daily new hospital admissions, and total hospitalizations. One model projects that nation will face another 300,000 hospitalized with COVID by the middle of February, an impossible task for all existing hospital resources.

On Dec. 26, Malcotent News forecasted Washington state hospitals would reach crisis standards of care by Jan. 15, without significant national guard support or FEMA intervention.

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There is no such thing as Flurona or Deltacron

[KIRKLAND, Wash.] – (MTN) A review of the genetic information shared on GISAID by researchers in Cyprus, who claimed to have discovered a new COVID strain created by the antigenic shift between the Delta and Omicron variants, appears to be inaccurate.

Multiple virologists and scientists have reviewed the shared data and universally agree that the “variant” is not an antigenic shift, by a chimera likely caused by testing patients who were co-infected with Delta and Omicron. The story was broken by Bloomberg on Saturday and picked up by multiple news outlets including CNBC and Forbes.

Dr. Tom Peacock, a virologist with the Imperial College of London, explained in a Twitter thread that recombinations of tests samples are common and that this wasn’t caused by poor quality control in the lab or bad science.

Dr Leontios Kostrikis, the head of the University of Cyprus’ biotechnology and molecular virology lab, announced to reporters on Saturday his findings and shared them in the GISAID database. By Sunday both Bloomberg, who broke the story, and Dr Kostrikis were on the defensive insisting this was an antigenic shift.

In an e-mail, Dr Kostrikis wrote to Bloomberg that his findings “indicate an evolutionary pressure to an ancestral strain to acquire these mutations and not a result of a single recombination event.”

A study published on Oct. 14 called Genome Recombination between Delta and Alpha Variants of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), explored recombination versus antigenic shift, and the need for due diligence before declaring a new variant has been identified. The study examined seven reports of the Alpha and Delta strain recombinations and found that when the lineages were traced, the combination of the two into a new and unique virus, antigenic shift, did not occur.

The study concluded, “we must intensively monitor and carefully inspect such marked genetic variations to ensure their proper characterization.”

The hype around “deltacron,” mirrors a similar scare around “flurona.” Headlines announced the findings of people co-infected with Influenza and COVID, which people misinterpreted as a new virus. Although Influenza and COVID are both viruses, the similarity ends there. Creating a new virus through an antigenic shift between the two would be like trying to breed a cougar with an elephant.

A meta-analysis published on Jun. 25, 2021, found almost one percent of confirmed COVID cases were among people co-infected with Influenza from December 2019 to September 2020.

Doctors and immunologists have explained that co-infection between multiple variants is possible, as is co-infection with Influenza or RSV. It is also possible for a coinfected person to spawn a new COVID variant if they were coinfected with two different strains at the same time. It appears in Cyprus, this isn’t the case.

Dr. Todd Wolynn, CEO of Kids Plus Pediatrics in Pittsburgh and an expert on medical misinformation and disinformation, explained why the headlines move faster than the science. “Before social media there use to be a saying, if it bleeds, it leads,” he said.

“Now with social media, if it scares it’s shared.”

On Friday the New York Times reported there were more than 900,000 confirmed COVID cases reported in the United States, representing a single-day record that would not include weekend or holiday data. Despite continued reports of the Omicron variant being mild, the United States also reached an alarming milestone, setting a new hospitalization record – 138,051 with 17,000 new hospitalizations because or with COVID a day.

Officials believe new COVID cases will peak in King County during the next seven to ten days. The IHME forecasts new coronavirus cases will peak at 38,000 on Feb. 4 in Washington. On Saturday the Washington State Department of Health reported 10,000 residents have died of COVID since Feb. 29, 2020.

Health and Lifestyle, Local

After a faculty revolt over the weekend, Seattle University moves to virtual learning due to COVID

[SEATTLE, Wash.] – (MTN) Seattle University reversed course on Tuesday, moving classes to virtual through January after outraged faculty started to organize for a no-confidence vote over the weekend.

In an update to students and faculty on Dec. 17, Seattle University intended to return to in-person instruction at the start of the new semester. Less than a week later, leadership changed direction, moving classes to a virtual setting for the first week of January.

Over the weekend, faculty started to stage a revolt and were moving to do a no-confidence vote against the leadership of the Seattle U. On Tuesday afternoon, the university demured and announced classes would be virtual through January.

“Current projections suggest that the Omicron-driven wave will continue to grow rapidly before cresting over the next few weeks. While early research continues to indicate that the variant is less severe and results in milder illness compared to earlier variants, especially among vaccinated people, there is still a great deal of uncertainty. Public health officials are urging all of us to do what we can to help minimize its spread, mitigate burdens on the health care sector and protect our communities and those at higher risk. Extending our period of online instruction through the end of the month will give us time to gather additional information as it becomes available. As we have done throughout the pandemic, we will respond to that information with the safety of our community members and the quality of our students’ educational experience as our paramount considerations.“

There has not been a peer-reviewed study that shows that Omicron is less severe than Delta published to date. Anecdotal data shows that hospitalizations are lower, and the vaccinated have less severe symptoms. A number of contributing factors including demographics, behaviors, vaccinations, therapies, and disease acquired immunity have made determining the severity of the Omicron variant in an ethical way challenging.

The IHME forecast predicts hospitalizations won’t peak for another month in Washington. There has been debate over being hospitalized with COVID versus because of COVID. For hospital resources and staff, the point is moot. Whether infected with or because, patients still need to be placed in isolation wards, require staff to follow safety guidelines to prevent infection, and consume PPE. These factors increase the amount of time, staff, and equipment that is used to care for the hospitalized.

The United States set a global record for confirmed COVID cases on Monday, reporting more than one million positive tests. Hospitalizations broke the previous record set during the Delta wave during the summer on Tuesday afternoon, soaring above 103,000.

Health and Lifestyle, Local, National

Record number of new COVID cases in Washington as hospitalizations climb

[OLYMPIA, Wash.] – (MTN) The Washington State Department of Health reported that the rate of new COVID cases exploded to 541.9 per 100,000 residents on Monday. The same report showed that coronavirus-related hospitalizations increased 49 percent in a week, from 736 on Dec. 26 to 1,099 on Jan. 2.

Several factors impacted today’s report, which may not show the true impact of COVID in Washington. Most tests sites were closed on New Year’s Day across the state, and numerous Western Washington test locations were closed on Dec. 30, 31, and Jan. 2 due to weather, power issues at one location, and insufficient staff. The hospitalization data appeared incomplete to the Malcontent News research team and will likely be updated tomorrow with more data.

A staggering 26 counties have extreme transmission, with another eight experiencing high transmission. Pierce County has the highest case rate in Washington, 771.0 per 100,000 people.

In King County, 25 people on average are hospitalized a day with COVID, breaking the previous record set during the Delta wave in September. Through Dec. 30, hospitalizations are up 81 percent, and the new case rate of 685.1 has never been higher.

The IHME forecasts hospitalizations will peak in early February, and COVID-related deaths will peak in March.

It wasn’t all bad news in the report. The number of Washingtonians who have received booster shots increased significantly from last week. There is strong evidence from multiple studies and hospitalization data from Israel, Europe, and the United Kingdom, that a third booster dose provides robust protection from severe COVID.

In welcome news to many parents, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized booster shots for 12 to 15-year-olds today and shortened the waiting period for the age group from six months after the second dose to five.

On Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci indicated that the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) was reconsidering new isolation and quarantine guidelines based on feedback. The CDC has faced withering criticism from healthcare providers and frontline workers for cutting quarantine time in half and relying on the honor system for those who are infected by asymptomatic.

Although Omicron has become the dominant strain in the United States, data out of Connecticut and Washington indicates it won’t squeeze Delta out. Complicating treatment and mitigation, ten percent of COVID cases continue to be Delta or so-called Delta Plus.

According to the New York Times, the United States recorded 1,003,043 new COVID cases on Monday, shattering all previous records. The 7 day moving average is approaching 500,000 new cases a day, which Malcontent News believes is a red line for United States hospitals.

There are now 102,479 people hospitalized with COVID, an increase of 41% from a week ago. Daily new hospital admissions now exceed all previous waves, except the first one, which peaked on Jan. 9, 2021. The United States will set a new all-time hospitalization record if the rate of increase remains unchanged during the coming week.

Testing resources in the United States are stretched to the breaking point, with laboratories processing a near-record number of tests daily. Monday night, the Georgia Department of Health tweeted they could not provide an updated COVID report because there is so much data.

University of Washington Medicine (UWM) officially takes over testing sites from King County on Tuesday. UWM announced that they would no longer provide prophylaxis COVID testing for work and travel, reserving resources only for people who are symptomatic or had close contact with someone infected with the coronavirus.

Speculation on how severe the Omicron variant is compared to Delta continues to run rampant. Disease acquired immunity, vaccinations, boosters, and demographic differences between nations have made reaching a concrete conclusion difficult. There is growing evidence that for the vaccinated, especially with boosters, the Omicron variant is mild to moderate for most.

For the unvaccinated, the data is less conclusive. In South Africa, hundreds have died in the last two weeks. While hospitalizations appear to have peaked, the number has remained almost unchanged for a week while the number of ICU patients and those requiring ventilators has grown. A study published by the United Kingdom Health Security Agency tracked 815 hospitalized Omicron patients with a median age of 45.5. The report found that 57 people had died in the group – seven percent. The ages of those who died ranged from 41 to 99.