[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,074 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.
Luhansk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance from the administrative borders of Luhansk.
Ukrainian forces destroyed ammunition depots in Pervomaisk and Bryanka in separate strikes using rockets fired by High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). In Bryanka, a base for terrorist members of the Imperial Legion working with Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group was heavily damaged.
Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces made a reconnaissance in force advance toward Verkhnotoretske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery, but they were unsuccessful.
Bakhmut – Russian forces gained ground in Pokrovske, moving northwest and closer to Bakhmut. In the Svitlodark Bulge, Russian forces attempted to advance on Vershyna and Semyhirya. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion working with PMC Wagner Group reached the eastern boundary of Semyhirya. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance from the area of Travneve in two directions but did not gain new territory.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces have started a broad offensive west of Donetsk, attacking Ukrainian positions. Some marginal gains have been made.
Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) continue to attempt to advance on Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Opytne, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka. Fighting continued in Marinka, with Russian forces repulsed.
Rockets fired by HIMARS destroyed ammunition depots in Alchevsk, Mospyne, and Yasynuvata.
In Zaporizhia, rockets hit a hotel complex used as barracks for Russian troops in Enerhodar. An ammunition cache cooked off, causing a larger fire. HIMARS rocket fire also destroyed a fuel depot in Kamyanka-Dniprovska.
Kherson – In Kherson, Ukrainian forces are setting conditions to advance on Bruskynske from the Inhulets River bridgehead established in Lozove.
There are unconfirmed reports that the situation for Russian forces in Vysokopillya and those remaining in part of Arkhanhelske is becoming increasingly difficult. Both settlements are cut off from their Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply line), and the remaining forces are technically encircled.
Rockets fired by HIMARS struck two locations in Nova Kakhovka. A big box hardware store holding a large ammunition depot was hit, producing a massive secondary explosion. A second area to the east was also hit. Additionally, an ammunition depot in Semenivka was targeted and destroyed in a rocket attack.
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Mykolaiv – Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground capacity struck a busy bus stop, killing five, hospitalizing 12, wounding dozens, and killing some dogs that people were walking at the time of the attack
Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv. Russian forces targeted the Kharkiv University of Agricultural Studies in a missile attack using S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a surface-to-surface capacity. The school was heavily damaged.
Russian S-300 antiaircraft missiles also target a meat processing plant in Bohodukhiv, destroying the facility.
Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance into Brazhivka and Dmytrivka and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also attempted to conduct reconnaissance in Schurivka and were unsuccessful.
Ukrainian forces destroyed another Russian battery of artillery north of Izyum. The artillery unit was clustered in the tree line south of Sukha Kamyanka and suffered heavy losses by drone-directed counterbattery.
On July 27, rockets fired by HIMARS destroyed a base for the terrorist organization Imperial Legion working for PMC Wagner Group in Izyum. Video shot by Russian State Media and PMC Wagner Group tried to portray the strike as an attack against a grade school. The video released by Wagner showed the building was sandbagged with firing positions and had trenches and defensive positions dug around it.
Chernihiv – Operational Command North reported the settlement of Semeniv on the Russian border was shelled, with the town administration building damaged. There were no casualties reported.
Daily Assessment
Private Military Company Wagner Group likely committed a war crime and violated the Geneva Convention for the trust and care of prisoners of war.
Ukraine continues to target ammunition depots, troop concentrations, and critical transportation infrastructure with HIMARS, crippling Russia’s ability to wage war.
Russian forces have initiated or are setting conditions for a significant offensive west of Donetsk but likely do not have the combat power to be successful.
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[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,073 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update. Here is your daily Russia-Ukraine War summary
Luhansk – A disturbing video emerged of a bound Ukrainian POW being castrated with a box cutter and then stomped on by a terrorist with the PMC Wagner Group in Severodoentsk sometime in June. The POW was bound and restrained by multiple mercenaries and made blood-curdling screams as he was hacked for more than 45 seconds in the horrific video. After severing the genitals, the mercenary holds it up to the camera and tosses it on the ground by the man’s head. The video was found on the cellphone of a dead soldier, analyzed by Ukrainian intelligence, and leaked to social media. The video has been deemed authentic, and the perpetrator in the video has been identified.
Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets released a statement that his office was preparing a message to the United Nations Committee Against Torture. “As the Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament] Commissioner for Human Rights, I have applied to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to verify the facts and to record a war crime and a violation of the norms of the Geneva Convention,” he wrote in a statement.
“We will hold consultations with the International Committee of the Red Cross again to increase the pressure by the countries from around the world on the Russian side to fulfill its obligations regarding prisoners of war and to allow access of ICRC representatives to the POW to assess their health and conditions of detention.”
Additionally, proceedings will be entered under Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine against the identified individual who committed the torture.
Russian forces did not attempt to advance from the administrative borders of Luhansk, instead relying on artillery, indirect fire from tanks, and airstrikes in northeast Donetsk oblast.
Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted reconnaissance to determine the position and strength of Ukrainian forces in Berestove and Nahime. Neither advance was successful.
Bakhmut – Near Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to advance on Yakovlivka and were unsuccessful. East of Soledar, fighting continued near the town. Russian forces attempted to advance on Bakhmut from Klynove along the M03 Highway and were unsuccessful. Russian forces also shelled Bakhmut and Vesela Dolyna. The Russian air force attacked Yakovlivka, Pokrovske and Vesela Dolyna.
West of the Svitlodarsk bulge, terrorist elements of the Imperial Legion with PMC Wagner Group, attempted to advance on Semyhira and were unsuccessful.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – The Ukrainian Directorate of Intelligence (SBU) is accusing PMC Wagner Group of destroying a building at the Olenivka Penal Colony that held prisoners of war from the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant. Local officials in Donetsk report up to 50 POWs were killed on July 28 and claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled the prison camp. Ukrainian officials have demanded the United Nations, Red Cross, and Red Crescent perform an immediate investigation. The SBU claims the order to kill the prisoners was made by Yevheny Prigozhin, the head of PMC Wagner Group.
In a statement on Telegram, the SBU wrote, “The explosions in Olenivka are a deliberate provocation and an undeniable act of terrorism by the occupying forces side. According to the available information, they were carried out by mercenaries from the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) under the personal command of the nominal owner of the specified PMC, Yevheny Prigozhin. The organization and execution of the terrorist attack was not agreed with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.”
Elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) attempted to advance on Avdiivka and Pisky and were unsuccessful. In Pisky, Russian forces wore Ukrainian uniforms in an attempt to deceive defending forces.
Russian forces attempted to advance on Krasnohorivka from Donetsk and were unsuccessful. It was reported that Russian forces made small gains in Marinka, advancing a couple of hundred meters to a slag heap.
Russian forces launched a small offensive toward Velkya Novosilvika from Blahodatne and were unsuccessful.
Ukrainian forces fired rockets from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) on a large ammunition depot in Illoviask. The attack produced multiple secondary explosions that continued hours after the strike.
Kherson – Russian combat engineers made temporary repairs to the bridge over the Inhulets River at Darivka, enabling light vehicle traffic to cross the bridge.
Ukrainian forces have likely made advances toward Novopetrivka, tightening the partial encirclement of Russian forces in Vysokopillya.
Ukrainian forces fired rockets from HIMARS, destroying an ammunition depot in Brylivka. This strike is the second Russian based on the Crimea Canal that has been attacked in the last 24 hours.
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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired up to six missiles into the city of Mykolaiv. Three hit the city, destroying School Number 47, damaging the Yacht Club, and destroying an agricultural warehouse in the main port. Early in the morning on July 29, a Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile used in a ground-to-ground role struck a bus stop in Mykolaiv, killing five and wounding 12.
Oleksandr Sienkevych, Mayor of Mykolaiv reported, “The strike was conducted with an anti-aircraft missile, so the affected area is very large. It covers several hundred meters. That is why there are so many casualties. There are still people with slight injuries who will recover at home after receiving medical attention.”
Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives north of Kharkiv. The line of conflict remains frozen with Russian artillery, rockets from MLRS, cruise missiles, and SRBMs prioritizing civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Russian and Ukrainian forces also exchange artillery and rocket fire from MLRS southeast of Chuhuiv. Russian forces shelled and fired rockets into Pechenihy, Bazaliivka, Lebyazhe, and Korobochkyne.
Izyum – Russian forces attempted reconnaissance in force near Brazhivka and were unsuccessful, suffering significant losses.
Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and artillery struck the settlements of Krasnopillya, Shalyhyne, and Brusky. There weren’t reports of injuries or significant damage.
Kyiv – Russian missiles hit a military base in Lyutizh, north of Kyiv. One building was destroyed and another was damaged.
Daily Assessment
Russian forces have initiated or are setting conditions for a significant offensive west of Donetsk but likely do not have the combat power to be successful.
The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to be abandoning attempts to secure Slovyansk and Siversk in favor of Bakhmut and areas west of Donetsk.
There are unconfirmed reports that Russian combat losses are becoming closer to losses suffered in April and the first week of May and disproportional to Ukrainian losses in the field.
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Ukrainian government and military leaders have acknowledged that a counteroffensive in the Kherson oblast has started, and evidence is mounting that the operation is gaining momentum. The dictionary defines counteroffensive as “an attack made in response to one from an enemy, typically on a large scale and for a prolonged period.”
For many, the word counteroffensive conjures up images from World War II and the Battle of the Bulge in the Ardennes or the Red Army’s response to Germany’s Operation Bagration near Minsk. Prepare to be disappointed for those expecting massive formations of troops and tanks rushing across the steppe supported by ferocious artillery barrages. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson will more closely resemble the United States World War II island hopping campaign in the Pacific than the plains of Eastern Europe or the deserts of Iraq during the first Gulf War.
Beyond Kherson city, most of the oblast west of the Dnipro River is sparsely populated. Small villages dot wheat fields across a flat landscape similar to rural Kansas or Nebraska in the United States. Settlements are spread out as much as 10 to 12 kilometers apart with almost no natural defenses or obstacles. Tree-lined dirt roads offer some cover, but the routes are obvious and easily observed. This area is tank country, and the terrain had Cold War strategic planners at the Pentagon and the Kremlin fretting during the last century. However, both belligerents have a problem.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine have many tanks to spare in a broad advance across the region. Ukrainian forces are reportedly training tank brigades for a future initiative and continue to have limited resources. Russia has lost up to a third of its active main battle tank resources in five months and was forced to dip into reserves of Cold War-era T-62 and T-80BV tanks to fill the gap. Armor is armor, but the main gun on the T-62 has a range of 1,700 meters, making it particularly vulnerable in a tank-on-tank battle and against light infantry weapons with greater range.
Unlike the Ardennes, Minsk, or the desert southeast of Baghdad, militaries worldwide have ready access to consumer, commercial, and military drones that can monitor troop movements and concentrations in real-time. There aren’t any widescale surprise attacks that will or can happen in Kherson. Without an overwhelming number of tanks, drone-directed artillery fire will shred company-sized formations as they attempt to traverse open areas.
The United States Pacific campaign used an island hopping strategy in World War II to defeat Japan. After the battle of Midway, Japanese forces were operating defensively as the United States Navy and Marines ground down island garrisons. Part of the strategy was to capture strategic locations where further attacks could be launched while bypassing other islands with less strategic value. In Kherson, the wheat fields are oceans, villages are islands, patrols and small groups of armor are destroyers and submarines, drones are the aircraft and the infamous kamikazes, and artillery positions are battleships.
Ukraine has started its first island hopping campaign, with Vysokopillya as Guadacanal and Kherson as Okinawa. Continuing with the Gudacanal analogy, Potomkyne is Florida Island, and Olhyne is Savo. Ukrainian forces are fighting for control of Arkhanhelske and are advancing on Novopetrivka. To supply the Russian troops still in Vysokopillya, it is 11 kilometers across roadless open wheat fields to Veremiivka, where Ukraine artillery holds fire control.
The “battleships” (artillery) make the supply efforts dangerous across an open sea of wheat. Ukrainian forces are preparing for a broader “beach landing” on the city limits of Vysokopillya while “destroyers and submarines (tanks and light infantry) block a potential retreat route toward Novopetrivka. Russian troops are still clinging to the “island” of Arkhanhelske. The Russian “battleships” (artillery) can’t redeploy to concentrate on Vysokopillya and stem the advancing “naval convoys” closing in.
Because neither belligerent can develop air supremacy and lack enough tanks and, more importantly, trained tank crews, this scenario will play out repeatedly in the coming months. Ukrainian military leaders will consider the strategic value of each settlement between Vysokopillya and Kherson and whether there is a need to secure the next “island,” or bypass it and let a lack of supplies wither away Russian garrisons trapped in small villages.
Part of that assessment will almost certainly be how many “battleships” (artillery) are around each settlement and the risk versus reward of an attempted beach landing. Ukraine will not leave any force behind the main line of conflict that would pose a serious risk to supply lines or the offensive itself. However, small defenses in a town that once housed less than 100 people could be a distraction to the primary goal.
Just like in the Pacific theater of World War II, the offensive will start slowly. As Ukraine advances further, if they employ a solid strategy and manage its resources, capabilities will increase as more firepower is concentrated on a shrinking front. Russian forces west of the Dnipro also have the same problem as Imperial Japan.
In 1941 the Japanese Imperial Army had 1.7 million soldiers compared to the United States with 200,000. By the war’s end, the Allied forces in the Pacific had swelled to 4 million troops. At the same time, Japan was reduced to one-million soldiers, primarily old and young conscripts in territorial guard units preparing to defend the main island.
By 1943, Japan was suffering from widescale supply issues. Not much press or pages within history books have discussed United States submarines’ roles in the Pacific, but supply interdiction became an untenable problem. Ukraine is vigorously concentrating on disrupting Russian supply lines throughout and into Kherson, and it is starting to have an impact.
In comparison, allied forces only got stronger through more manpower, increased weapons output, technological improvements, cracking Japanese codes, the implementation of combined arms combat tactics, and the ability to be constantly supplied. Japan’s response to these deficiencies was to waste light infantry and pilots and their supporting equipment with no meaningful way to replace the losses. While these tactics caused some of the worst casualty rates in World War II, they only delayed the inevitable.
The destruction of two of the three bridges across the Dnipro and severely damaging the third have created a similar situation in Kherson. The makeshift ferry that’s been established adjacent to the destroyed Antonovskiyy Bridge isn’t capable of carrying enough rations to feed the garrison of 15,000 Russian troops in Kherson city. Munitions such as TELAR, Grad, and Smerch rockets will be even more challenging to move in significant quantites, let alone diesel fuel and gasoline for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and trucks. For now, Russia has no meaningful way to replace the loss of armored vehicles or larger artillery pieces.
Airlift by helicopter can manage small arms ammunition, potable water, and food. But artillery rounds, rockets, and fuel are likely out of reach. Ukraine holds air dominance in the region, which will make widescale Russian resupply flights even risker.
Both belligerents are deficient in main battle tanks. However, Russia is having a more challenging time replacing losses, and the replacement vehicles are older weapons systems with inferior armor, sites, and main guns. Ukraine has commitments from allied partners to provide up to 600 more main battle tanks. While not as modern as the Russian T-90 or American M1A2 Abrahams, the upgraded T-72 variants promised are still capable of outgunning the T-62 and have better technology than the T-80BV.
For Ukraine, bringing new equipment to the front is only harassed by imprecise Russian long-range missiles and airstrikes closer to the line of conflict. If Russia plans to ferry across a tank, it requires three support trucks and one fuel truck. Additionally, those trucks need somewhere to go to collect ammunition, rations, potable water, field medical supplies, and fuel. For Russia to do it right, the four pontoon ferry can only haul four tanks a trip, with supporting vehicles and supplies. Even then, resupply will take days, if not weeks, at four pontoons at a time.
Unless Russia can reestablish the bridges across the Dnipro and regain fire control, these logistical problems will only worsen. As Ukraine hops from each island in the wheat fields, the supply situation will continue to degrade, and like the Pacific Campaign of World War II, the advances will start to accelerate.
This process will take months, and when mud season starts in September or early October, travel will be limited to established improved roads until the snow and freezing temperatures come. By then, Russian forces awaiting their fight in towns and villages closer to Kherson will deal with supply shortages and the difficult choice between fighting to the death, attempting to break out and retreat to the next village across kilometers of open terrain, or surrendering. Ukrainian commanders will have to manage the losses of troops and equipment. Larger villages and towns, the ones most likely required for the “island hopping” campaign to succeed, will have strong defensive positions established and the benefit of firing on advancing forces that have to move in the open. Like beach landings in the Pacific, destroyers, battleships, and aircraft can only provide so much cover for advancing troops moving to the edge of established defenses. In 2022, that would be tanks, artillery, MLRS, and drones.
The counteroffensive to secure the western third of the Kherson oblast has started, but there are a lot of islands to hop across a sea of wheat before Kherson city is reached. The first few advances will take time and result in heavy losses for both sides. Eventually, Russian defenses will reach a culmination point and start to collapse.
Updated 10:10 AM – There are reports of fatalities at Kanatove Air Base.
[UKRAINE] – MTN It has been 3,073 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.
Kyiv – At least three Iskander-M missiles fired from Belarus struck an industrial facility in Vyshorod, northwest of Kyiv. Two large plumes of smoke were visible over the settlement. The missiles were fired from the Gomel area of Belarus. There were no casualties reported.
Luhansk – Fighting continued along the administrative border of the Luhansk. Russian forces attempted to advance on Verkhnokamyanske from Bilohorivka [Luhansk] and were unsuccessful. Russian forces remained stuck at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and did not attempt any advances.
Northeast Donetsk – Russian and Ukrainian forces fought only skirmishes in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. Ukrainian forces maintained control of Berestove.
Bakhmut – East of Soledar, fighting to control Stryapivka continued and was limited to small arms fire without armor support. Fighting within Pokrovske continued.
The fiercest fighting continues to be west of the Svitlodarsk bulge. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group attempted to advance on Kodema and Semyhrija but were unsuccessful.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian troops and the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) separatist militia heavily shelled Avdiivka, Pisky, and Marinka. Avdiivka was continuously shelled for five hours. Self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev claimed in Telegram that this was part of a larger offensive and a direct assault on Avdiivka. He labeled the activity as “preparation work” but was non-specific on the target of a ground offensive.
It was reported that Russian forces attacked in the direction of Hulyaipole, but the origination point was unspecified. The attempted advance was unsuccessful.
Kherson – Russian barracks in Chornyanka were struck in a rocket attack fired by HIMARS. Russian forces staying at the football stadium (soccer for Americans) and the buildings across the street practiced inadequate Operational Security (OPSEC) in mid-July, sharing pictures of the base.
In Kherson, Ukrainian forces disabled the Antonovskiyy bridge, Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridge, and the Nova Kakhovka bridge that goes over the Kahhovka Hydro Electric Dam. The Antonovskiyy and Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad bridges are irreparable until after the war.
Additionally, Russian forces built a pontoon bridge over the Inhulets River at Darivka and have attempted to camouflage it with foliage. To bypass the Antonovskiyy Bridge, A ferry was established using a bridging tug to tow four pontoon bridge sections. The “ferry” is hugging the damaged bridge as a shield and combines civilian and military traffic.
Russian forces attempted to advance on Andriivka [Kherson] from Novohrednjeve and were unsuccessful. Russian forces attempted to advance on Bilohirka from Bruskynske and were also unsuccessful.
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Mykolaiv – S-300 antiaircraft missiles hit the city of Mykolaiv in a ground-to-ground capacity. A school was virtually destroyed, and the ship-building university was damaged. A security guard was injured in the attack.
Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives. There were positional battles and reconnaissance in force near Sonivka-Kozacha Lopan, Dementiivka, and Tsupivka. The line of conflict remains frozen with Russian artillery, rockets from MLRS, cruise missiles, and SRBMs prioritizing civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Two S-300 antiaircraft missiles used in a ground-to-ground role struck the center of Kharkiv. There wasn’t any significant damage, but a police officer was killed when one of the missile landed near a power plant.
The city of Chuhuiv, 65 kilometers southeast of Kharkiv, was shelled, with Russian forces targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Izyum – South of Izyum, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that Ukrainian troops had advanced to Pasika and attacked a Russian reconnaissance unit in the area. The settlement is 6 kilometers north of the previously known line of conflict. The General Staff also reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reported that the settlement of Brazhvivka had been shelled. The exiled City Council of Borova reported that almost all Russian troops had left the settlement, with only a small security force remaining. The council claims that Borova came under artillery fire from the south, suggesting it came from Pidlyman, which we believe is still under Russian control. One civilian was killed.
Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and artillery struck the settlements of Esman and Seredyna-Buda. There was no damage and no casualties.
Chernihiv – Operational Command North reported that up to 20 Iskander-M missiles were fired from Belarus into Ukraine, with nine landing near Honcharivs’ke in the Chernihiv Oblast. The missiles landed in the forest west of the settlement.
Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was attacked again on Wednesday morning with reports of significant damage, aircraft losses and many causalities. An updated report stated 5 were killed and 25 wounded, including 13 military personnel. Missiles hit two hangars for training aircraft and there were cadets on the base.
Daily Assessment
Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 22 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,072 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.
Luhansk – Russian forces remain blocked at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery. Another attempt to advance on Verkhnokamyanske was made, and it was unsuccessful. Russian forces also attacked Hryhorivka, supported by airstrikes, but could not break through Ukrainian defenses.
Northeast Donetsk – Positional battles continued in Spirne and Ivano-Darivka with no change in territorial control. On the morning of July 25, Ukrainian forces reported they had liberated Berestove. Late on July 25, it appeared Russian forces had recaptured the settlement for the second time Early on the morning of July 27, Ukrainian forces recaptured the town. The village is completely destroyed from months of fighting, and the T-1302 Highway is badly damaged.
Bakhmut – East of Soledar, Russian forces occupied Stryapivka temporarily. They likely attempted to extend too far into Soledar and were pushed back by Ukrainian forces. Fighting for control of the village continued.
Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group claimed to have fully secured Pokrovske, east of Bakhmut. Reports of continued fighting, artillery, and airstrikes indicate that gains have likely been overstated.
In the Svitlodarsk bulge, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant and Luhanske on the evening of July 25. Ukrainian forces also withdrew from Novoluhanske to avoid becoming encircled. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion fighting with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group were confirmed to be on the power plant grounds. Russian forces attempted to advance from Roty to Semyirya to seal off retreating Ukrainian troops and were unsuccessful. Russian forces needed 62 days to advance 5.5 kilometers and secure the power plant.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Pavlivka and were unsuccessful. Otherwise, there were artillery exchanges from Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kherson – Ukrainian forces using High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS) attacked the Antonovskiyy Bridge for the third time and the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge. The Antonovskiyy Bridge is severely damaged with significant structural damage. Russian state media reported the Antonivskyy Zaliznychnyy Mist Railroad Bridge was damaged but did not provide further details. Russian forces in Kherson are now cut off from road and rail lines on the west side of the Dnipro River.
Russian forces have completed construction of a pontoon bridge adjacent to the destroyed Darivika Bridge over the Inhulets River. Due to poor operational security, it is likely the bridge will be a priority target in the coming days.
Operational Command South reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Bilohirka, indicating the settlement is still under Russian control. It was also reported that Andriivka [Kherson] and Lozove are liberated.
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Mykolaiv – Russian forces fired S-300 antiaircraft missiles in a ground-to-ground role and Kh-59 cruise missiles at Mykolaiv. Up to eight missiles struck an already destroyed railroad bridge over the Inhulets River, one missile hit the port, and another hit a thermal plant.
Kharkiv – Neither belligerent launched any ground offensives from July 25 to July 26 north or northeast of Kharkiv. Both sides fired artillery rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and fired from tanks.
Ukrainian forces used a Switchblade 300 kamikaze drone to attack a car at the Russian border checkpoint in Troebortnoe, north of Kharkiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims one person was killed, a Moldovian citizen, and two were wounded. Ukraine claims that two FSB agents were killed.
Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, were unsuccessful, and retreated. With reconnaissance in force, Russian forces attempted to advance on Chepil and suffered heavy losses.
There are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces withdrew from Yatskivka and Studenok. We had previously reported that Russian troops had been pushed entirely out of Bohorodychne. Additionally, between July 21 and July 25, the bridge between Russian-controlled Yarmivka and Studenok was destroyed. In Russian-controlled Borova, a HIMARS strike hit the railroad yard, where Russian military equipment was staged for transport.
The Exiled Borova City Council reported that Russian troops have been withdrawing from the Izyum axis since July 22. Troops are reportedly moving north, and the field hospital for wounded Russian soldiers in Borova was closed.
Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, Head of the Sumy Oblast Military Administration, reported mortars and rockets fired by MLRS struck the settlements of Esman, Krasnopillya, and Seredyna-Buda.
Chernihiv – Viacheslav Chaus, head of the Chernihiv Oblast State and Military Administration, reported that Russian forces shelled the settlements of Leonivka and Hirsk.
Odesa – The Russian air force launched a massive attack on the village of Zatoka and the already destroyed Zatoka bridge. Up to 13 cruise missiles hit the village and the disabled span. The missile attack damaged or destroyed 155 buildings in the restive seaside resort town.
Daily Assessment
Ukraine has effectively severed all the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) into the western part of the Kherson oblast and the eastern regions of the Mykolaiv oblast still occupied by Russian forces.
Russian forces appear to be continuing the operational pause in Izyum and could be redeploying troops to other axes.
We maintain that Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,068 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.
Less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations to permit grain exports from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port, Port of Odesa, and Pivdennyi [South] Port, Kalibr cruise missiles launched by the Russian Black Sea fleet slammed into the Port of Odesa.
Russia and Ukraine did not sign an agreement between the two nations, instead signing separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations, which would permit Ukraine to export up to 20 million tons of grain over the next 120 days. The agreement did not specify that Russia could not attack Ukrainian ports explicitly. However, with continued attacks, civilian port operations with cargo ships entering and exiting will be impossible.
Insurance rates for cargo vessels operating in the Black Sea have already skyrocketed, with over a dozen commercial vessels seized, bombed, or hit by Russian missiles since February 25 and one bulk carrier striking a mine.
Luhansk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military head, reported that Ukraine still controls two settlements in the Luhansk Oblast.
Northeast Donetsk – Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Ivano-Daryivka through Spirne and were unsuccessful.
Russian forces fired artillery at civilians, civilian infrastructure, and Ukrainian military positions in Siversk, Hryhorivka, Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka, and Spirne. The Russian air force also attacked Sprine.
Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.
Bakhmut – Terrorists with the Imperial Legion affiliated with the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group made small advances into the southern part of Pokrovske. Limited fighting occurred near the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant.
Artillery was fired on Bakhmut, Berestove, Bilohorivka [Donetsk], Pokrovske, and Vesela Dolyna.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Near Donetsk, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) attempted to advance on Vodyane from Vesele.
HIMARS rockets struck an ammunition depot within the machinery plant in Russian-controlled Horlivka, northeast of Donetsk. Secondary explosions thundered across the city as the ammunition stored in the factory started to cook off.
In the south Donbas, there were artillery exchanges from Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kherson – Russian state media claims Ukraine attacked the Antonovskiy Bridge for the third time, but there are no photos or videos to support the reports. Russian officials report they will not attempt to repair the bridge. Instead, they plan to build a pontoon bridge to the south. The bridge is reported to be severely damaged and will take too long to repair.
Ukraine, likely using HIMARS rockets, moderately damaged the Russian-controlled Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River. The bridge is a critical water crossing on the 140-kilometer detour route for Russian armor and military supplies after the Antonovskiy Bridge was damaged in attacks earlier this week. Without the crossing, a large region of Russia-controlled Kherson will be cutoff from overland supply routes
Multiple reports are quoting different sources that up to 2,000 Russian troops are partially encircled in Vysokopillya.
Presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych provided additional details during a television interview, which clarified the situation more. Arestovych reported that Russian forces are 75% encircled in Vysokopillya. On July 21, Russian forces attempted a breakout by heading south through the opening in the salient but were pushed back by Ukrainian artillery fire.
Arestovuch reported they are two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) trapped, with an estimated 1,000 troops blocked from leaving the town. He said that Ukraine would not offer a green corridor for evacuation but would likely demand their surrender.
Russian forces captured Oleksandrivka [Kherson] on the banks of the Dnipro River.
There are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed the T-2207 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – aka supply line) south of Davydiv Brid.
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Zaporizhia – A video showed Russian tent barracks on the grounds of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar being attacked by kamikaze drones. The tents were located about 300 meters from the reactor blocks. Using a nuclear power plant for barracks and as a firebase to launch artillery and rockets represents a break from accepted military protocol, which considers nuclear power plants “no go” zones. Three Russian soldiers were killed and nine wounded in the attack. Additionally, a Grad Mulitple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which was parked between two cooling towers for the plant, was damaged in the attack. The video and pictures published after the strike show that no part of the nuclear power plant was damaged.
Kharkiv – North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces attempted a ground assault on Udy and there were skirmishes in Tsupivka and Dementiivka.
Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.
Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.
Izyum – For the second day in a row, Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis. In Prydonetske, Ukrainian artillery destroyed an entire artillery company, including eight 152mm towed howitzers, ammunition, and command and control. Prydonetske is located east of Izyum in the area Russians call “Sherwood forest.”
Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyginsk and Krasnopil were shelled.
Odesa – Four Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Russian Black Sea Fleet targeted the Port of Odesa, with two striking the facility. Serhii Bratchuk, an Odesa Military administration spokesperson, said two missiles hit the port, and Ukraine’s air defense shot down two. The port suffered moderate damage, and a fire broke out, but the missiles missed the grain silos. The attack came less than 24 hours after Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations to provide safe corridors for grain exports. The reaction from officials was swift and furious.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres “unequivocally” condemned the attack through a spokesperson.
Secretary-General @antonioguterres unequivocally condemns reported strikes today in the Ukrainian port of Odesa.
Full implementation of the commitments made yesterday by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Turkey is imperative: https://t.co/naL2UnYJ0R
“Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “This indicates only one thing: no matter what Russia says and promises, it will find ways how not to fulfill it. Geopolitically, with weapons, bloody or not, but it has several vectors, [this is] how it always acts.”
“That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia,” Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas added on Twitter. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said the bloc “strongly condemns” the attack.
Yesterday, #Istanbul agreement on Ukrainian grain exports via Black Sea ports, facilitated by UN and Turkish efforts, was reached.
Today, Russian missiles hit port of Odesa.
That’s all you need to know about deals with Russia. The world must help Ukraine fight the aggressor.
People’s Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko wrote on Telegram, “There is a fire in the port of Odesa. Here is a grain corridor for you. These bastards are signing contracts with one hand and sending missiles with the other.”
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Nikolenko wrote, “It took less than 24 hours for the Russian Federation to launch a missile strike on the territory of the city of Odesa to question the agreement, and the promises it made to the UN and Turkey in the document signed yesterday in Istanbul.”
“The Russian missile is Vladimir Putin spitting in the face of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, who made a huge effort to reach the deal, and to whom Ukraine is grateful.”
The US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget A. Brink, called the Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian port city of Odesa “outrageous,” writing, “Russia strikes the port city of Odesa less than 24 hours after signing an agreement to allow shipments of agricultural exports. The Kremlin continues to weaponize food. Russia must be held to account.”.
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Saturday that Russia claimed it had “nothing to do” with the strikes.
“It really concerned us that such an event happened after we signed the deal on grain shipments. We are disturbed as well. But we continue to fulfill our responsibilities about this agreement, and we also expressed in our meetings that we are in favor of the parties to continue their cooperation here calmly and patiently,” said Akar.
Kirovohrad – The Kanatove air force base on the outskirts of Kropyvnytskyi was hit with up to 13 Russian cruise missiles, causing significant damage, killing three and wounding nine. The attack was a joint operation between the Russian air force and navy, with five Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and eight Kalibr cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet hitting the region. Cruise missiles also slammed into the railroad facilities at Ukrzaliznytsia. An electrical substation was also targeted, knocking out electrical power in parts of the oblast capital of Kropyvnytskyi.
Daily Assessment
Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine.
Ground offensives by Russian forces have become fewer and smaller a week after the “operational pause” was declared over.
It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.
To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.
[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,067 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.
Luhansk – Russian troops tried to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery toward Verkhnokamyanske and were unsuccessful. Ukrainian forces are well entrenched on the ridges west of the plant, enabling effective artillery fire in the valley that has to be crossed to reach Verkhnokamyanske.
Serhiy Haidai, the Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor, reported that artillery fire has intensified, and Russian forces are throwing their tank reserves into battle in an attempt to advance from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.
Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, likely from Zolotarivka, and were unsuccessful.
Under-powered Russian units attempted to advance on Spirne and Ivano-Daryivka. The platoon-sized units suffered heavy losses and retreated to previously established defensive lines.
Russian forces fired artillery at Ukrainian positions in Berestove. Also, they launched an air strike, indicating that elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) were pushed out of the settlement or never captured it as claimed on July 21.
Bakhmut – Near Bakhmut, Russian forces attempted to advance on Ukrainian positions in Stryapivka, supported by the Russian air force. They were unsuccessful.
Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge, but Russian attacks have been getting smaller over the last two weeks. Under-staffed platoons attempted to advance on Vershyna and the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant from Myronivka. Neither attack was successful and Russian forces suffered heavy losses.
A second advance attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of Novoluhanske and Dolomitne and was also unsuccessful, with poorly trained and under-staffed platoons suffering heavy losses.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In the south Donbas, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kherson – In Kherson, Russian forces are attempting to stop the flow of Ukrainian forces over the Inhulets River and have been unsuccessful. Russian forces advanced from Mala Seidemynukha toward Andriivka and were pushed back.
Russian forces also advanced from Davydiv Brid toward Bilohirka and were unsuccessful.
There are social media reports that Russian forces are encircled in Vysokopillya. Our team is surprised there is still a sizeable Russian presence in the settlement. We had determined that continued occupation was untenable in late June due. However, we don’t see how other analysts concluded that there is an encirclement of Russian troops in Vysokopillya.
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Dnipropetrovsk – Nikopol was attacked with rockets fired by MLRS for the fourth day in a row. Up to 100 rockets hit the city, causing widespread damage and killing one person. Eleven homes were damaged, along with the railroad line that serves the city, natural gas, and water lines.
Kharkiv – Russian troops attempted to advance on Pytomnyk for the second day in a row. The advance was unsuccessful. The settlements of Udy, Zolochiv, Slatyne, Ruska Lozova, Petrivka, Dementiivka, Velyka Babka, and Rubizhne [Kharkiv] were hit by artillery.
Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that Russian forces fired Urgan rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket systems into the Saltivka district of Kharkiv again, killing two.
Southeast of Kharkiv, the settlements of Chuhuiv, Stara Hnylytsia, Rtishchivka, Pushkarne, and Lebyazhe were shelled.
Izyum – Russian forces did not launch any offensive operations along the Izyum axis.
Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Bilopol, Znob-Novogorod, and Shalyginsk were hit by mortar fire and self-propelled grenades from Russian forces firing from across the international border. There were no injuries or damage reported.
Daily Assessment
Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine. The lack of combat activity is significant.
Russian forces have been incapable of holding territorial gains made after July 4 and are consistently pushed back within one to seven days of making any new advances.
It is unlikely that Russian forces will be capable of taking the initiative in the next three to six weeks anywhere in Ukraine.
To read the rest of our report, become a Patreon! For as little as $5 a month, you get access to the daily Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report. The report provides analysis, maps, detailed information about all the axes in Ukraine, international developments, information about war crimes and human rights, and economic news. As an added benefit, you get access to flash reports, breaking news, and our Discord server.
[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,066 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014. Here is our latest update.
Luhansk – There was no change in territorial control in the Luhansk oblast. Bilhorivka and Zolotarivka remain contested.
Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces shelled Bilohorivka for hours, hit the town with missiles, and launched an air strike. He stated that the rate of artillery fire increased significantly compared to the previous day.
Northeast Donetsk – The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, likely from Zolotarivka, and were unsuccessful.
Russian forces attempted to advance on Spirne and were unsuccessful. The Headquarters of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic militia reported that elements of the 1st Army Corps had captured Berestove, located on the Bakhmut-Lysychansk T-1302 Highway.
Bakhmut – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Bakhmut. The settlements of Bakhmut, Soledar, Vesela Dolyna, Yakovlivka, and Pokrovske were shelled. The Russian air force launched air strikes on Pokrovske.
Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in the area of the Vuhlehirskaya Power Plant. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported continued fighting in the bulge. The Russian air force attacked the settlement of Kodema.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – Russian forces attempted to advance on Novoselivka Druha, Novomykhailivka and continued to fight in the contested settlement of Mykilske. None of the advances were successful. Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement of Mykilske, where fighting continues.
Otherwise, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Kherson – The damage to the Russian-controlled Antonovskiy Bridge over the Dnipro River is significant and will impact commercial and military traffic. Volodymyr Saldo, the self-proclaimed head of the administration of the Russian-occupied Kherson region, said that the bridge would only be open to car traffic due to the damage and to start repairs. Trucks and freight will have to cross the Dnipro River at the only remaining Russian-controlled bridge at the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant, about 45 kilometers east. Russian military supplies moving overland now have to take a 140-kilometer detour.
Rockets fired from HIMARS hit a Russian facility in Skadovsk on the Black Sea. It is unclear what the target was, but a large fire was burning after the strike.
Operational Command South reported that Russian forces attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of Andriivka and Lozove and were unsuccessful, indicating that Ukrainian troops had liberated Andriivka in the past three to ten days.
Mykolaiv – Mykolaiv Mayor Oleksandr Sienkovych reported that the city was hit by seven S-300 surface-to-air missiles being used as a surface-to-surface weapon. One missile hit a gas pipeline near a service station, and there was one casualty.
Kharkiv – Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that a small group of Russian troops attempted to advance on Pytomnyk, north of Kharkiv. The advance was unsuccessful. The settlements of Stary Saltiv, Petrivka, Ruska Tyshki, Dementiivka, and Tsyrkuny were hit by artillery.
Russian forces destroyed a mosque in Kharkiv during a rocket attack on July 20. There weren’t any casualties, but the mosque was heavily damaged.
Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reported that a Russian rocket hit a bus stop in Saltivka, killing three people.
About 80 kilometers southeast of Kharkiv, the settlement of Rtyshchivka was hit by a Russian air strike. Further north, the town of Pechenihy was hit by artillery.
Izyum – Russian forces attempted to advance on Bohorodychne, southeast of Izyum and were unsuccessful. The settlements of Dibrovne, Krasnopillya, Chepil, and Adamivka were hit by artillery fire. Russian forces also shelled Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka.
Sumy – Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Military Administration, reported that Shalyhyne was attacked by Grad rockets fired from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). One person was injured in the attack. The settlements of Esman, Bilopolska, and Novoslobidska were attacked by artillery and mortars.
Daily Assessment
Russian forces cannot assemble adequate combat strength to launch significant offensive operations in Ukraine, with combat power severely degraded after the battles for Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Hirske-Zolote.
Since July 4, Russian forces have made little progress in the Donbas while losing ground north of Slovyansk and in the Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.
Russian forces to the west of the Dnipro River are connected by two bridges – one for rail and one for road traffic – the intact bridge over the river is not a viable target due to the risk of damaging the hydroelectric dam, but there are other locations where interdiction is possible.
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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 21 weeks since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War and 3,065 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.
Luhansk – Luhansk Regional State Administrative and Military Governor Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces still have not fully secured the oblast. Fighting for control of Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka continues.
Russian forces attempted to advance on Verkhnokamyanske from the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and the southern edge of Zolotarivka, from the T-1302 Highway, north of the railroad yard. Fighting in eastern Verkhnokamyanske continued, with Russian and Ukrainian sources calling it intense. Russian forces hit Ukrainian positions with artillery, rockets from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and air strikes.
In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Zolotarivka area toward Verknokamyanske, Serebryanka, and Bilhorivka and were unsuccessful. Russian armor remains pinned at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.
Russian forces continue to attempt to push Ukraine out of Bilohorivka after its partial liberation on July 13 and have not been successful. Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces attacked Bilohorivka overnight in a rare night offensive and were unsuccessful.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on Hryhorivka, with Haidai reporting that the reconnaissance in force group advanced from Zolotarivka. The advance was unsuccessful and suffered heavy losses.
Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces attempted to advance on Spirne and Ivano-Darivka and were unsuccessful. To the south, Russian forces attempted to advance on Berestove and Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and were unsuccessful.
In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Bakhmut – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Bakhmut. Terrorists with the Imperial Legion with Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group dug in on the southern edge of Pokrovske.
Fighting continued in the Svitlodarsk bulge in the area of the power plant. Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Ukrainian forces launched a night attack from the plant in an unspecified direction and were unsuccessful. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian forces attempted to advance on the power plant and were also unsuccessful.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
The settlement of Hulyaipole was shelled by Russian forces causing major damage in the downtown region. The city has been shelled almost daily since March.
Kherson – Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge a second time with a barrage of 12 rocket fired from NATO-provided HIMARS, hitting the critical Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line) 11 times. Occupation leaders described the condition of the bridge as “poor.” Russian state media reported extensive damage to a concentrated area of the bridge deck, with several holes through the structure. Cars were still able to pass, but officials announced the bridge would be close to traffic for several days.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims five missiles were fired and four were impacted, but several videos showed three explosions on and just adjacent to the bridge. The bridge is the primary road connection across the Dnipro River, connecting the western and eastern regions of the Kherson oblast. The bridge was moderately damaged in the attack but is likely still serviceable.
A Russian Su-35 fighter plane was shot down near Nova Kakhovka. Initially, it was reported Ukraine shot down the aircraft near Lyubymivka by Nova Kakhovka. Russian social media accounts claimed it was a friendly fire incident. The Ukrainian Air Forces confirmed overnight a surface-to-air missile shot down the aircraft. The pilot was able to eject and landed in Russian-controlled territory.
Operational Command South reported that Russian positions in Snihurivka were hit by an air strike, destroying an ammunition depot.
Pro-Russian social media accounts reported that Ukraine had liberated Arkhanhelske along the east bank of the Inhulets River. Ukrainian government officials have been reluctant to release detailed information on combat operations to protect operational security.
Fighting continued near Snihurivka, with the Ukrainian air force attacking Russian positions.
Dnipropetrovsk – Russian forces fired Grad rockets from MLRS into civilian areas of Nikopol. More than 30 rockets hit houses and apartments, killing two and wounding nine. Ukrainian forces apparently retaliated by launching two “kamikaze” drones at Russian positions within the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. There were reports that two Russian soldiers were in the drone attack, and smoke was seen rising from near the compound.
Kharkiv – Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that a small group of Russian troops attempted to advance on Udy, northwest of Kharkiv. The platoon size group suffered heavy losses and retreated across the international border.
Izyum – Russian forces did not attempt to advance south of Izyum, relying on artillery to shell Dibrovne, Novomykolaivka, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Dolyna, Chepil, Semylanne, Hrushuvakha, Adamivka, Barvinkove, Bohorodychne, Arkhanhelivka, and Nova Dmytrivka.
A Russian missile killed one person when it hit the center of Kramatorsk and badly damaged an apartment building.
Near Lyman, Russian forces shelled Raihorodok.
Sumy – The settlements of Mykolaiv [Sumy], Bilopolska, Novoslobidska, Khotynska, and Esman was shelled by Russian forces from across the international border.
Odesa – Black Sea – A warehouse filled with debris in the port of Odesa was hit by a Russian Kh-59 cruise missile fired by a Su-35 aircraft over the Black Sea. The warehouse was a total loss, but there were no injuries. Russian state media claimed the warehouse was an ammunition depot for NATO-provided weapons and munitions, but there were no secondary explosions, and the fire, which sent clouds of black smoke over the city, was quickly extinguished.
Daily Assessment
It has been four days since the operational pause “ended,” and Russian forces have been unable to gain territory.
There are growing questions on how much combat strength Russian forces have left in Ukraine, given the inability to muster attacks with groups larger than a company with adequate armor, artillery, and air support.
While Russia is setting conditions to advance on Siversk, Ukraine is setting conditions for a broader counteroffensive in Kherson.
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[KYIV, Ukraine] – MTN It has been 3,064 days since Russia occupied Crimea on February 27, 2014.
Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shogui ordered Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov to prioritize destroying Ukrainian artillery and “long-range missile” systems as NATO-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) wreak havoc on Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC – supply lines) and logistics. With Russian forces losing ground north of Slovyansk and suffering from Special Operation Forces (SOF) and artillery attacks in the forests west of Izyum, Shogui had indicated that Slovyansk was not the next target for the Russian military. It is more likely that Siversk and Bakhmut in the northeastern part of the Donetsk oblast are where Russia will focus next.
Luhansk – In Luhansk, fighting near the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery and for control of Bilohorivka continued. Russian forces attempted to advance from the Zolotarivka area toward Verknokamyanske, Serebryanka, and Bilhorivka and were unsuccessful. Russian armor remains pinned at the Verkhnokamyanka oil refinery.
Northeast Donetsk – Russian forces did not attempt to advance on Berestove or Bilohorivka [Donetsk] and held their positions near Spirne. They relied on artillery, rocket fire from Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and air strikes.
In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Bakhmut – The most intense fighting continues to be in the Svitlodarsk bulge for control of the Vuhledar Power Plant. Russian forces tried to advance from Myronivka toward the power plant and were unsuccessful.
Southwest Donetsk – Zaporizhia – In southwest Donetsk, there were scattered artillery exchanges from Horlivka to Donetsk city to Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk Oblast and Hulyaipole to Orikhiv in the Zaporizhia Oblast.
Self-declared leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces had advanced north of Avdiivka, cutting off the GLOC to the embattled city and creating a partial encirclement. Russian FSB Colonel and former commander of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Girkin, dismissed the claim, noting that the DNR doesn’t have the combat power for an offensive of this scale.
Kherson – Ukraine targeted the Antonovskiy Bridge with rockets fired from HIMARS, hitting the critical GLOC at least twice. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims five missiles were fired and four were impacted, but several videos showed three explosions on and just adjacent to the bridge. The bridge is the primary road connection across the Dnipro River, connecting the western and eastern regions of the Kherson oblast. The bridge was moderately damaged in the attack but is likely still serviceable.
HIMARS rockets hit an ammunition depot in Raiske, west of Nova Khakovka, producing secondary explosions. A second HIMARS strike destroyed a Russian barracks and logistics center near the hydroelectric plant on the bank of the Dnipro River. Another Russian ammunition depot in Beryslav on the north bank of the Dnipro River was also destroyed.
Operational Command South reported that Russian positions in Snihurivka were hit by an air strike, destroying an ammunition depot.
There was heavy fighting in Arkhanhelske, with Pro-Russian accounts reporting Ukraine had almost taken full control of the settlement.
Dnipropetrovsk – Dmytro Orlov, the exiled mayor of Enerhodar, reported that nine Russian soldiers stationed at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had been hospitalized after an “incident,” and several others had died. The European Commission Joint Research Center Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring map showed that radiation levels were normal across Ukraine.
Kharkiv – Ukrainian Armed Forces SOF raided Dementiivka north of Kharkiv, pushing Russian forces out of the settlement, killing 36 soldiers and capturing one. Ukrainian military leaders claim they captured the Russian unit commander with the Northern Fleet Russian Navy naval infantry.
In the settlement of Chuhuiv southeast of Kharkiv, an apartment building was hit by a Russian missile. The village of Lebyazhe and the town of Pechenihy were shelled.
Izyum – Southwest of Izyum, Russian forces were pushed further back from Dibrovne to the southern edge of Sulyhivka and liberated Brazhkivka.
Odesa – Black Sea – Northwest of Odesa, the settlement of Dachne was hit by several Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea. Pro-Russian accounts claim the target was Ukrainian command and control and ammunition depot. There weren’t any secondary explosions from the strike. Pro-Russian account Rybar reported that a cruise missile also hit the already severely damaged and defunct Zatoka bridge. Officials in Odesa reported six were wounded but no fatalities.
Daily Assessment
Russian forces appear to be struggling to renew large-scale combat operations three days after the operational pause ended.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is holding off on an offensive to capture Slovyansk after declaring it was a priority on March 25.
Selecting Siversk and Bakhmut as the first targets for the renewed Russian offensives indicates that troop strength remains weak.
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