Russia-Ukraine War Summary for 22 September 2025

It has been 4,231 days since Russia started the Russia-Ukraine War by invading Crimea and 1,306 days since Russia expanded its war of aggression against Ukraine.

Today’s full Situation Report is 91 pages. Full details can be found on Substack and Patreon.

The Big Story: NATO Eastern Flank

On Friday, three Russian MiG-31 multirole fighters armed with air-to-air missiles violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. The Finnish Air Force tracked the planes before they entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island. The MiG-31s traveled south-southwest, passing within 9 kilometers of the capital city of Tallinn, before being intercepted by F-35A stealth fighters operated by the Italian Air Force.

The Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the chargé d’affaires of the Russian Federation in Estonia to deliver a demarche.

Moscow denied the entire incident.

The Estonian government has requested an Article 4 consultation with the NATO Alliance and called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, which will be held on Monday.

A NATO spokesperson confirmed that an Article 4 consultation would be held, but did not provide a timeline.

Czech President and former NATO Secretary General, Petr Pavel, said the Alliance should have shot the Russian aircraft down. German Bundestag member Roderich Kiesewetter also called for shooting Russian warplanes down.

The day after the latest incursion, Reuters reported that Pentagon officials told European diplomats from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania that the Department of War (Defense) would be slashing security assistance to the countries.

On Saturday, the U.S. House showed rare unity, approving the increase in Baltic Security Initiative funding unanimously by voice vote.

The Border Guard Service of Poland reported that on Friday, two Russian fighter jets, flying at an altitude of 150 meters, buzzed Poland’s Petrobaltic Drilling Platform in the Economic Exclusion Zone, approximately 60 kilometers north of Gdansk.

On the night of 19–20 September, Poland scrambled F-16s and activated its air defense due to a massive Russian attack on Ukraine that involved 580 drones and 40 cruise missiles. No airspace violations were recorded.

Over the weekend, mushroom pickers and farmers found the debris of four more Gerbera-2 drones inside Poland. Our analysts have recorded drone debris in 21 locations from the 10 September Russian incursion.

On Sunday, Trump was asked if he would help defend Poland and the Baltic states if Putin continues his escalations, saying, “I will,” without giving specifics.

Theaterwide

President Zelenskyy confirmed that he will meet with his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, next week in New York to discuss security guarantees and other issues.

On Friday, U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker said that President Trump will no longer press for Russia and Ukraine to agree to specific peace terms, but will seek an end to the war. Whitaker also said that he believes “the Russian threat is sometimes exaggerated.”

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg stated that Ukraine must view the issue of returning the occupied territories as a long-term concern. He defended Trump’s efforts while reiterating that Ukraine was not the roadblock to a peace deal.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed Washington’s talking points and said that Trump is more interested in normalizing Russian relations than supporting Ukraine, calling it “an artificial war, launched by Joe Biden and his team.”

U.S. news outlet Bloomberg, quoting Kremlin sources, reported that Putin has now adopted escalation as the primary tactic to pressure Kyiv to accept Moscow’s peace terms, following his meeting with President Trump on 15 August.

Trump once again called for an increase in oil production and for the E.U. to stop importing Russian crude as a way to end the Russia-Ukraine War.

President Zelenskyy said that talks were ongoing with Romania and Poland to shoot down Russian drones in Western Ukraine. He also announced that the Ministry of Defense would create a new command for assault forces. Details of the new organization will be made public in seven to ten days.

Influential Ukrainian military commander and Rada Deputy Roman Kostenko said that the staffing situation within Ukrainian military units has “improved several times compared to six months ago.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen released the details of the 19th sanction package against Russia. Proposed restrictions on Schengen Area visas for Russian citizens were removed after France, Greece, Spain, and Hungary objected.

Ukraine unveiled its Toloka uncrewed undersea vessels (UUVs) in Lviv, including the 12-meter-long TLK-1000, which features a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, a 60-day operating period, multiple navigation systems, including AI-assisted terminal guidance, built-in electronic warfare systems, and a payload of up to 5 metric tonnes.

Ukraine also unveiled a new uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV) that is amphibious and can carry up to 1.5 metric tonnes.

According to Defense Express, Ukraine is now producing 3,000 FP-1 long-range drones per month. The FP-1 has similar capabilities to the Shahed-136/Russian Geran-2.

New M-777 155mm howitzer decoys produced by Ukraine simulate firing, including the release of smoke, and utilize solar arrays to heat the fake barrels, meant to trick thermal imaging used by drones.

The Ukrainian 47th Engineering Brigade has been criticized for recently constructed defensive structures that provide inadequate protection against drones and airstrikes.

War Crimes and Human Rights

On the night of 19–20 September, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine that included 579 Shahed-136/238 UAVs and Gerbera-2 decoy drones, eight Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), and 32 Kh-101/102 subsonic cruise missiles. President Zelenskyy said that Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv were targeted.

An Iskander-M SRBM armed with submunitions struck an apartment building in Dnipro, killing at least three people. Russian missiles also hit the grocery chain ATB’s distribution center.

In the occupied town of Kozachi Laheri in the Kherson Oblast, Russian soldiers executed three civilians, accusing one of being a traitor and the other two of providing assistance.

The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are systematically destroying the Kherson village of Inhulets, east of the city of Kherson.

In Druzhkovka, a Russian soldier committing perfidy by wearing a Ukrainian military uniform was taken into custody.

Mobiks, Mobilization, and Mir

Multiple Russian sources reported that Russian Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin had been dismissed from the Russian Federation Armed Forces after being relieved of command for the third time since 2022.

According to a study obtained by the news outlet Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), North Korea has provided the Russian armed forces with weapons, ammunition, and troops worth up to $9.8 billion, equal to 33% of North Korea’s annual GDP.

Polish citizen Jerzy Tici, a pro-Russian activist and journalist who volunteered to fight in Ukraine for the Russian Federation, was killed in action in June.

The 5 June 2025 drone strike on a Russian Iskander-M launcher in the Bryansk oblast of Russia killed Captain Kirill Kulikov of the 26th Rocket Brigade.

Major Roman Ionichev of the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division was confirmed killed in action by a Ukrainian strike in occupied Kherson that happened two years ago.

Russia displayed its latest wunderwaffe, the Sarma MLRS, with six 300mm launch tubes with a range of 90 kilometers. There’s one problem. The only thing “new” is the truck chassis.

Alexander Tyunin, CEO of NPK Khimpromengineering, Russia’s only carbon fiber manufacturer, was found dead of a gunshot wound to the head by his vehicle in a forested area near Moscow.

Russian milblogger Roman Alekhin was named a foreign agent by the Russian Justice Ministry. Russian state media outlet Izvestia released a video in early September showing Alekhin asking for a $600,000 kickback to support a $2.4 million military procurement deal.

Yuri Evich, an original Russian “little green man” from the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), complained on ROY TV about problems within Russian drone units and their command structure.

Russian propagandist Maxim Kalashnikov also voiced frustration, saying that integrating Ukraine with Russia is impossible because the Russian-speaking regions were turned “into ruins.”

The Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB) seized 1.5 metric tonnes of cocaine with a street value of $239 million in St. Petersburg.

Russian Economy

Moscow Exchange Supervisory Board Chairman Sergey Shvetsov warned that interest rates will remain high and that Russia will continue its war economy for the next five to eight years.

Reports in Russian state media suggest that the Russian Ministry of Finance is preparing to increase the VAT rate from 20% to 22% in 2026.

The price of RON AI-92, AI-95, and diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg Commodities Exchange continues to rise.

Russian Front

On the night of 19–20 September, Ukrainian drones struck the Rosneft Saratov Oil Refinery in the Samara region. On the same night, the Novokuybyshevsk Oil Refinery was attacked, and drones hit the Samara Linear Production Dispatch Station in Prosvet.

At least five Ukrainian drones struck the Kanevska traction substation in Staroderevyankovskaya, Krasnodar Krai, causing severe damage to the electrical substation.

A coal train in the Sakhalin region of Russia derailed between Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Gruzovaya of the Far Eastern Railway, causing significant damage to the line.

Russian soldiers in an ATV buggy on the Snagost–Apansovka Road in Kursk revealed 18 previously undocumented losses of armored vehicles, trucks, UAZ-452 Loafs, and Ural trucks.

Medium resolution GEOINT confirmed Ukrainian drones struck the Arzamas Instrument-Making Plant in the Nizhny Novgorod region on 11 September, damaging three workshops.

Action Report

In the Sumy area of operation (AO), the Ukrainian 225th Separate Assault Battalion attacked multiple Russian positions in Oleksiivka, where Russian sources report their situation has become critical.

In the Northeast Kharkiv AO, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance unit (DRG) activity along the Russian border in Milove, Ambarne, and Chuchnivka.

In the Kupiansk AO of the Kharkiv oblast, Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that fighting continued in the area around Spartak Stadium in the city of Kupiansk.

In the Kreminna AO in the Luhansk oblast, Ukrainian forces completed their retrograde operation in the Serebriansky Forest.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GSAFU) confirmed earlier reports that an ammunition depot was destroyed in occupied Bohdanivka in the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), and a 29 August attack on a warehouse for the Russian 70th Motor Rifle Division destroyed thousands of first-person view (FPV) drones.

In the Lyman AO in the Donetsk oblast, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance units (DRGs) are operating in Shandryholove and Serednie, with both settlements coded as contested. Russian motor cavalry used a treeline to advance into Kolodyazi and briefly occupy positions.

In the Kostiantynivka AO in the Donetsk oblast, Russian forces advanced into Rusyn Yar.

In the Pokrovsk AO in the Donetsk oblast, Russian milblogger Antaoly Radov reported the situation is deteriorating, due to Ukrainian forces advancing in three directions. Ukrainian forces advanced northwest of Mykolaivka, while Russian troops regained positions in Novoekoromichne. In Pokrovsk, at least one Russian DRG infiltrated the western edge of the city. Russian DRGs were also operating in Troyanda, and a group was able to advance as far north as Novopavlivka [Donetsk].

Ukrainian FP-2 strike drones attacked Russian drone operators with the Rubicon unit in occupied Ukrainsk.

Both combatants reported that logistics are becoming increasingly difficult in the Pokrovsk AO and other regions due to evolving tactics in drone warfare.

In the Novopavlivka AO in the Donetsk oblast, a single Russian soldier held up a flag for a Russian drone in western Muravka.

In the Pokrovske AO in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, Russian forces carried out four flag-wavings in the village of Berezove. Ukrainian troops withdrew from Obratne to avoid encirclement.

In the occupied Zaporizhzhia, the death of a sixth officer assigned to the operational headquarters of the 35th Combined Arms Army (CAA) was confirmed by the Russian Officers Killed in Ukraine project.

In occupied Crimea, at least six Ukrainian drones struck luxury sanatoriums in Sanatorne in a potential targeted attack.

Over the weekend, the Main Defense Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (GUR) Prymary drone unit attacked four Mi-8 helicopters, two Be-12 Amphibious Aircraft, and a Nebo-M mobile radar. One Mi-8 helicopter in occupied Skhilne was confirmed destroyed.

Special operation forces (SSO) with the GUR mined the Tendra Spit in occupied Kherson, destroying a Russian Vityaz DT-10 articulated tracked vehicle.

On Saturday, Russian Shahed-136 drones struck an oil depot in Bakmach in the Chernihiv region, setting at least two tanks on fire.