Thousands dead in Iran, Starlink blocked, Trump asks for military options

Human rights watchdogs and multiple government intelligence agencies believe the Iranian government has killed 2,000 to 6,000 protesters as anti-regime protests continue across Iran.

The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) verified the death of 538 people through Saturday, and 10,600 arrests. Medical staff at Iranian hospitals reported they have taken in 3,500 bodies and 10,000 injured protesters, straining the medical system. Iranian forces have been accused of rounding up the wounded at hospitals and threatening medical workers.

On Thursday, the Iranian government, which already has some of the most repressive Internet rules in the world, blocked all web and telephone access and started using electronic warfare to block Starlink.

Amir Rashidi, director of digital rights and security at the Miaan Group, reported that 30% to 80% of packets sent by Starlink devices are lost, depending on the region. Packets are small chunks of data that are transmitted over the Internet. “I believe the Iranian government is doing something beyond GPS jamming, like in Ukraine, where Russia tried to jam Starlink,” Rashidi said.

Analysts have observed a further decline in the amount of information coming from Iran, with IRGC forces and the Basij conducting rooftop searches for Starlink antennas. People found with satellite Internet have been arrested.

U.S. President Donald Trump has asked the Pentagon to provide a plan for military intervention in Iran, which most analysts believe would be limited to airstrikes. Available options will be presented at the White House on Tuesday. Last week, in a Truth Social post, Trump vowed to attack Iran if the government resorted to mass violence.

Currently, the U.S. does not have a carrier battle group deployed in the Mediterranean or Arabian Seas, following the November redeployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford to the southern Caribbean. The U.S. Air Force could intervene, with support from U.S. Navy surface vessels with VLS capability, but it will still require repositioning resources.

Protests against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his regime began on December 28, due to a currency collapse and a sharp spike in inflation. The Iranian rial has lost 40% of its value since June, with Inflation rising to 42%. Iran is also facing long-term chronic unemployment, an energy crisis with frequent rolling blackouts, and a severe water shortage caused by mismanagement, corruption, and climate change.

The unrest quickly spread to all 31 provinces and hundreds of cities and towns, with anti-government protesters taking over a handful of smaller cities. In isolated cases, regional police withdrew with some joining protesters, but there haven’t been any mass defections.

Clashes between protesters and security forces continued to escalate, despite most anti-government protests remaining peaceful. As security forces intensified their efforts to suppress the growing unrest, some protesters began to arm themselves. One regional police lieutenant was assassinated, and numerous government buildings, including a state-controlled TV station, were set on fire.

The violent crackdown by the Iranian government started almost immediately after Internet access was blocked on Thursday. In Mashhad, multiple independent eyewitnesses claimed that a pickup truck equipped with a heavy machine gun, called a technical, shot indiscriminately at protesters, killing between 10 and 50 people before driving away. A graphic video of the aftermath confirmed that at least ten were killed.

In Tehran, security forces opened fire on protesters in the Tehranpars district, reportedly killing hundreds. There were credible reports of at least 200 civilians killed in the southern part of the city.

In an act of continued defiance, anti-regime groups have started marking the homes of government officials and security forces with the warning, “You suppress us in the streets with violence, but we will come for your families and deal with you soon.”

Protesters have rallied behind the son of Iran’s former Shah, the self-declared Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who has called for the overthrow of Khamenei. Pahlavi current lives in the United States and fled with his family in 1979 during the Iranian Revolution.

Iran has blamed the protest on the U.S., Israel, and Zionists, and on Sunday declared three days of national mourning for the “martyrs.” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian announced there would be a “national resistance march” on Monday to denounce the ongoing violence. On state-controlled television, he described the protesters as “urban terrorist criminals.”

The IRGC also appealed to Iranian militias in Iraq and Kata’ib Hezbollah to help crush the protests, but unlike 2022, Iran’s proxy forces have few options. The capabilities of Iran-backed Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis have been severely degraded after years of war.

Iranian militias also withdrew from Syria in 2024 after the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime, making it more difficult to smuggle arms and people between Lebanon and the Palestinian territories and Iran.

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