One year later, Trump’s grocery price promise missing in action

It’s been one year since President Donald Trump was inaugurated after campaigning on controlling inflation and lowering grocery and fuel prices. Three hundred and sixty-six days later, has the situation improved?

On January 21, 2025, our team benchmarked grocery, fuel, and fast-food prices in Western Washington to track over the next 4 years. This is our eleventh update.

Based on actual retail prices, today’s grocery trip costs $1.54 more than two months ago and $14.28 more than our first trip in January 2025. The price of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper, Coca-Cola, and Wonderbread increased. Additionally, the price of Tide laundry detergent and Dawn dishwashing liquid increased due to shrinkflation. The cost of Tampax tampons, Pillsbury flour, and Starbucks ground coffee dropped.

Today’s grocery bill increased from $249.14 to $250.68, a negligible increase from our last price check. Grocery prices have increased 6.1% since President Trump took office a year ago, almost double the “official” inflation rate.

A 12-gallon fill-up of regular gasoline decreased by $3.60, factoring in the July 1, 2025, 6-cent increase in the Washington state gasoline tax. Compared to a year ago, the price for a gallon of gasoline is unchanged.

There were no price changes for any of the fast-food meals we are tracking. The price of a McDonald’s Big Mac Extra Value meal fell by $1.50 over the past year, following public backlash over earlier price increases that led to declining same-store sales. A Taco Bell 3 Crunch Taco Combo increased by 30 cents.

Methodology

Our team established the following rules to determine which items to track and to keep the methodology as fair as possible.

• We benchmarked prices using national brands, which are less impacted by local market fluctuations, with two exceptions. We benchmarked milk and ground beef based on the Kroger store brand. Dairies in the United States are regional, which impacts local prices and supply. Four corporations control most of the meat product distribution and pricing in the United States, and the Kroger brand provides a fixed product with a known weight.
• Last year, we decided not to track egg and poultry prices due to the bird flu epidemic, which at the time was decimating production across the United States. The outbreak was outside of the control of the Biden and Trump administrations.
• We did not benchmark fresh produce prices because Washington is one of the country’s largest producers of certain products, such as apples. This increases local supply and variety, lowering regional prices. In contrast, corn and lettuce are more expensive in the winter months than in the southern United States due to higher shipping costs. Additionally, prices are impacted by acts of God, fuel prices, and severe weather, adding another layer of complexity.
• The size of each product was carefully recorded, including the unit count and the weight or volume of each unit within the package. We included this in our calculations because shrinkflation masks price increases.
• We recheck regional prices in person on the 20th of each month. If stores are closed on the 20th due to holidays or weather, our team checks prices on the next available day. If a location where we audit prices permanently closes, we will record prices from the next-closest location, preferably within the same city or town.
• Prices from McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Domino’s were logged using their respective apps and are determined without using any coupons, incentives, or benefits from customer loyalty programs.

Here are the Products

We track the prices of 27 popular items, including regular unleaded gasoline and meals from three major fast-food brands.

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