Can Trump Keep his Promise to Lower Grocery Prices

[Kirkland, WA – WBHG News] – During the 2024 United States elections, inflation and grocery prices took center stage, with the blame for post-COVID inflation placed on politicians from both parties, corporations, and private equity firms. President Donald Trump campaigned on the promise to lower grocery prices, while his opponents and some economists argued that the White House doesn’t have much direct control over the price of Kraft mac and cheese or a gallon of gasoline.

Inflation at the grocery store has been a very real problem for Americans since 2020, caused by COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. The reasons why prices have continued to increase, and inflation has remained stubborn are complex and go beyond national politics. According to the Federal Reserve Bank, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked in 2022 at 8.0% and has since dropped to 3.2% in 2024. Economists prefer to see an inflation rate between 2% and 3%, so the U.S. economy remains slightly overheated. Additionally, CPI doesn’t account for shrinkflation, when companies make a product smaller without changing the price.

During Trump’s inauguration, our team benchmarked grocery, fuel, and fast food prices in Kirkland to track over the next four years. Will grocery prices drop now that the Republicans have control of the House, Senate, the White House, and confirmed a majority of the sitting Supreme Court justices?

Methodology

Our team established the following rules for identifying what items to track and how to keep the methodology as fair as possible.

• We benchmarked prices using national brands, which are less impacted by local market fluctuations, with two exceptions. We benchmarked milk based on the Kroger store brand and ground beef using Kroger’s Simple Truth organic brand. Dairies in the United States are regional, which impacts local prices and supply. Four corporations control most of the meat product distribution and pricing in the United States, and the house Kroger brand provides a fixed product with a known weight.
• We decided not to track the price of eggs or poultry due to the bird flu epidemic, which is decimating egg and poultry production across the United States. The current outbreak is outside of the control of the previous and current administration. Further, the egg cases in the local stores were practically empty and missing most of their price tags.
• We did not benchmark the price of fresh produce because Washington is one of the largest producers of some items in the country, such as apples. This increases our supply and variety, which lowers our regional prices. In contrast, fresh corn and lettuce are more expensive in the winter months compared to the southern United States due to the need to import these items over very long distances. Additionally, prices are impacted by acts of God and weather, creating another layer of complexity.
• The size of each product was carefully recorded, including the unit count and the weight or volume of each unit within the package. This will enable our team to track shrinkflation, which could hide a price increase.
• We will recheck the prices once a month on the 20th. In the event that one of the stores we benchmarked is closed on the 20th, we will check prices on the closest opening day after the 20th. If a location permanently closes, we will record prices as the next closest location, preferably within Kirkland.
• Prices from McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Domino’s were logged using their respective apps and are determined without using any coupons, incentives, or benefits from customer loyalty programs.

We Couldn’t Benchmark Every Item on our List

During our audit, we noted that almost all items were on sale or had new price reductions in the Kroger-branded stores in the Kirkland area. Some of the sale tags showed the normal retail price, while others didn’t. We were unable to benchmark shampoo, toothpaste, razors, canned and frozen vegetables, and other popular items.

In other cases, there were problems with the posted price tags. For example, we wanted to benchmark Cascade automatic dishwashing pods, which is the most popular national brand. However, the item on the shell was 62 count, while the price tag reflected a 57 count product. We could not determine if the 57 count price was an error or misplaced under the slightly larger product being sold or if Cascade is rolling out a smaller package.

We photographed each product with its published price tag, documenting the count, weight, and volume.

Here are the Products

We will track the prices of 27 popular items, regular unleaded gasoline, and three popular fast food brands. We will publish our next update on February 21.

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