Europe is Sleep Walking Towards War and Ignoring the New Trump Reality

Poland is deploying the equivalent of ten NATO battalions to secure internal infrastructure after Russian-backed and organized hybrid warfare attacks between Warsaw and Lublin.

The U.K. has threatened to take military action against the Russian spy ship Yantar if it continues its provocations.

Romania let another Russian drone fly through its airspace without shooting it down because they couldn’t get a radar lock.

If the Dmitriev-Witkoff Peace Plan is implemented, it won’t prevent World War 3. It all but guarantees it. The plan has the worst elements of the Treaty of Versailles, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, and the Munich Agreement rolled into a single document.

Chișinău summoned the Russian Ambassador to Moldova because a Shahed-136 drone violated Moldova’s airspace. The ninth recorded violation of Moldovan airspace since September 2022.

Lithuania was forced to close Vilnius International Airport for over an hour after balloons were launched from Belarus.

And that’s in the last 72 hours.

It’s being reported that if Ukraine does not accept the 28-point plan laid out by the Russian head of the National Welfare Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, and U.S. Special Envoy to Russia and the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, by November 27, then all military aid and intelligence sharing will end.

The Warning Signs Were Always There

Speaking to Brian Kilmeade, President Donald Trump confirmed that he supports Ukraine giving up the remainder of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that Russia doesn’t control and hasn’t been able to capture after 4,292 days of war.

Trump supports Ukraine cutting the size of its standing army by 40%, from an estimated 1 million to 600,000. For the U.S. to honor the meager security guarantees it is offering to Ukraine, Russia, and the NATO Alliance, payment is expected.

The 28-point Dmitriev-Witkoff Peace Plan imposes on Europe and NATO requirements that Ukraine not only can’t deliver but also has no say in. It caps the number of NATO member countries forever. It requires Belgium to release $100 billion in frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian reconstruction, less than 20% of what is needed, and the U.S. pockets 50% of the profits. It requires the World Bank to issue a finance package to Ukraine.

And what are European leaders doing? They’re rushing to Washington to start a dialog, with diplomats saying no one at the White House is answering the phone. I’m not surprised, and European leaders shouldn’t be, either. The flashing red warning lights have been there since the summer of 2024.

Russia gets sanction relief, U.S. cooperation on infrastructure, AI and data centers, Arctic mining, and is returned to the G8. It also gets immunity for all war crimes. The kidnapped children, the confirmed use of chemical weapons, the torture, the executions, the mass graves, the open warrants with the International Criminal Court? All erased.

Children in Saint Petersburg can sleep well knowing that when they hear the sounds of Ukrainian drones and missiles and Russian air defense, it is military and economy infrastructure being targeted, not their beds.

We have warned for months that the change in tone from Washington did not represent a change in U.S. policy. On February 19, we wrote, “Signals from Russian and U.S. officials after the first round of meetings to discuss a ‘peace deal’ in the Russia-Ukraine War indicate that the Trump administration is setting conditions to lift some or all sanctions and end all aid to Kyiv.”

Nine months later, to the day, it’s back to the future.

In our September 29 Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report, we assessed the following.

1. Recent statements from the Russian Foreign Ministry that a de facto state of war exists between Russia and Europe are part of the ongoing information warfare campaign, meant to split the NATO alliance, drive the wedge between the U.S. and Europe deeper, and restrict military aid to Ukraine.
2. We maintain, for now, that even though U.S. President Donald Trump now recognizes Ukraine’s military capabilities, Russia’s failure on the battlefield, and its fragile economy, this only represents a change in tone and is not a shift in U.S. policy.
3. Existing and future European security guarantees from the current United States administration, including a potential response to a NATO Article V declaration, are unlikely to be supported.
4. While President Trump’s statement that Ukraine can restore its 1991 borders through military action has merit, it will require a significant increase in military support that Ukraine’s allies have repeatedly been unwilling to commit to, due to concerns about provoking Russia.
5. Autocrat Vladimir Putin remains committed to his maximalist goals of reestablishing Russia’s pre-World War I borders in Europe and Asia and has no interest in good-faith negotiations.
6. We maintain there is now a moderate risk of a significant international incident between the NATO Alliance and Russia, due to ongoing Russian provocations.
7. The number of Russian drones violating NATO airspace will continue to increase due to the tepid response to the most recent incidents.

In Europe, the Russian escalations are increasing and becoming more aggressive, as we previously assessed they would. This is due to more than a decade of weak responses from Western leaders on both sides of the Atlantic to Russian aggression. Autocrat Vladimir Putin views compromise and patience as weakness. He has consistently backed down in the face of defiance and force.

If the Dmitriev-Witkoff Peace Plan is implemented, it won’t prevent World War 3. It all but guarantees it. The plan has the worst elements of the Treaty of Versailles, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, and the Munich Agreement rolled into a single document.

Europe is Sleep Walking Into War

Europe continues to sleepwalk towards a continental war with a country high on its own metaphorical Kool-Aid and delusional self-importance. A population fed over 20 years of propaganda of being stabbed in the back by the West, their unparalleled greatness, how Russia has no borders, and how they stand alone against a world that wants to destroy the Russian people.

Today, at least 80% of Russia’s ground force resources are in Ukraine or are supporting the so-called “special military operation.” Russia’s economy is crippled, and its ability to conduct late 20th-century near-peer kinetic warfare against modern militaries has been destroyed.

If NATO weren’t a defensive alliance, the reality is that ten brigades would be drinking vodka in Saint Petersburg within 24 hours of crossing the Russian border. NATO troops securing Kaliningrad would likely be met with the same indifference Yevgeny Prigozhin received when PMC Wagner Group occupied Rostov-on-Don in June 2023 during the failed Prigozhin Insurrection.

But NATO isn’t an offensive alliance. Children in Saint Petersburg can sleep well knowing that when they hear the sounds of Ukrainian drones and missiles and Russian air defense, it is military and economy infrastructure being targeted, not their beds. Their faces can rush to the windows with excitement and record the flashes on their cell phones. They can relish the Russian Ministry of Defense’s reporting, “all drones intercepted,” while ignoring the bright, burning glow from the oil refinery.

The European Union’s GDP is $19.99 trillion compared to Russia’s $2.17 trillion. Europe has the resources to bury Russia economically and militarily, with its own nuclear deterrent.

Europe is trying to dance around a Russian leader who is stubborn and stupid enough to believe that if he orders an invasion of Finland, or Estonia, or Latvia, or Lithuania, or tries and take the strategic Suwalki Gap, that nothing will happen. Why? Because nothing ever happens.

And Europe is trying to appease a U.S. administration with a President who vowed in 2024 that Russia can do what it wants with Ukraine. A President who promised that Washington would view NATO’s Article V transactionally, and has openly stated, he may not honor a declaration.

As far back as March 2022, our team warned that the West could defeat Russia militarily in Kyiv, or give it five years for the fight to reach Warsaw or Berlin. The Dmitriev-Witkoff peace plan calls for Poland to bear the brunt of defending Eastern Europe’s flank. Polish President Donald Tusk has already rejected that part of the Dmitriev-Witkoff Peace Plan.

After Ukraine bleeds out, Poland would be surrounded by Russia and Belarus from three sides and would have to pay for the privilege of continued U.S. security guarantees. The same guarantees were given to Ukraine in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum.

What Can Europe Do

European leaders shouldn’t be rushing to Washington. European leaders should be rushing to Kyiv to stand shoulder to shoulder with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The era of angry Tweets and hollow statements to reporters should have ended in March 2022. European leaders don’t bear all of the blame. The Biden administration was far too cautious and repeatedly blocked European nations’ efforts to adopt a more aggressive stance.

What could Europe do to show Russia that it should be taken seriously? With or without U.S. and NATO support, European nations could establish a no-fly zone 50 to 75 kilometers deep in western Ukraine. Any Russian drone or missile that enters the zone is automatically considered a threat to European security.

Yes, Moscow will scream, “This is a red line! Don’t make us nuke you! We will bury London under a tidal wave! We will crush Poland in 24 hours! Oreshnik! You must fear Oreshnik!”

And then, nothing will happen. Because when it comes to Russia’s nuclear threats, nothing ever happens.

But I believe the European mission should take it one step further.

When Russia screams its threats, European leaders should declare, bluntly, “Do it! Go ahead. Start a continental war. We dare you. We double-dare you.”

Why?

Because for almost four years the Kremlin has made wild claims about NATO troops already in Ukraine, NATO generals killed by the dozens in underground bunkers. How Black Polish mercenaries raised in bio labs are fighting for Ukraine. These are Kremlin-backed claims.

Any European leader still believing that the United States will go “all in” without hesitation if Russia attacks a NATO nation is not paying attention to the realities within the White House.

If Russia is claiming that Europe is already in the fight, what possible action could Russia justify in interfering with a no-fly zone? European excuses that enforcing a zone could result in a direct confrontation with Russian military aircraft are hollow. Russia is using stand-off weapons to strike civilian and military targets, and cannot penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. Any Russian warplane flying past the known line of contact will be turned into a flaming ball of wreckage by Ukraine. They don’t need Europe’s help in that department.

European navies could start seizing Russian shadow fleet vessels when they operate without transponders and flags in international waters. If they wanted to be more controversial, they could allow the Ukrainian navy vessels stuck in European ports to support these missions and gain profits from seized cargoes. Make letters of marque great again.

The European Parliament needs to pass Article VII against Hungary, stripping the country of its voting rights. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has blocked and delayed European action for too long, while gutting democratic institutions in his own country. He has his own maximalist goals of reoccupying Transcarpathia and restoring parts of Hungary’s pre-World War I borders.

The European Union’s GDP is $19.99 trillion compared to Russia’s $2.17 trillion. Europe has the resources to bury Russia economically and militarily, with its own nuclear deterrent. It comes down to a lack of political will, moral courage, the tyranny of the minority in Orbán, and the cost of running such missions.

What’s the Alternative

The eastern flank of NATO can continue to spend resources fighting a hybrid war with one hand tied behind its back. Activating 10,000 troops to secure Poland’s national infrastructure isn’t free. Currently, Romania, Poland, Denmark, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Finland are carrying an oversized bill for defending the rest of Europe. These are the nations most affected by Russian hybrid warfare, especially Poland.

Or, European leaders can continue to wring their hands about the monetary and political cost, while Ukraine slowly bleeds out over the next 2 to 5 years without further U.S. support. They can continue to tell themselves that Washington will honor Article V and that MAGA is just a phase that will pass in 2029.

Because if that happens, and Russia achieves its maximalist goals in Ukraine, which the so-called peace plan all but guarantees, the monetary and political cost will increase exponentially. Europe will face its worst refugee crisis since World War II. And in the future, Europe will be forced to fight the most experienced military on the planet, which has jointly and unintentionally written the book on 21st century warfare. A war that no military, not called Russia or Ukraine, is prepared to fight.

A successful Putin, further emboldened, will pacify Ukraine with ruthless brutality. Then, he will use Ukraine’s people, technology, military production, and natural resources to move to the next phase of his maximalist goals, which are the reestablishment of the pre-World War I borders of the Russian Imperial Empire. Putin said it in 2011 and wrote it down ten years later. For Americans, those maximalist goals include Alaska.

No bogus U.S. peace plans or wishful thinking is going to make that change. Any European leader still believing that the United States will go “all in” without hesitation if Russia attacks a NATO nation is not paying attention to the realities within the White House. The language in the Dmitriev-Witkoff Peace Plan positions the U.S. as operating outside NATO and imposes major restrictions on the Alliance.

Earlier this week, seven Russian cruise missiles slammed into a block of apartments in Ternopil, 1,015 kilometers from the line of contact. If Ukraine collapses and Russia occupies the country? Munich, Germany, is 1,015 kilometers from Ternopil.

To quote Gabrielius Landsbergis, the former Foreign Minister of Lithuania, “Europe doesn’t need a place at Trump and Putin’s table. Europe can make its own table, stop rule-taking, and start rulemaking.”

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