Russian Drone Over Romania, Air Raid Sirens in Poland, Estonia’s New No Fly Zone

Less than 24 hours after NATO announced Operation Eastern Sentry to bolster its defense on the eastern flank, Russia tested the Alliance’s resolve.

Ionut Mosteanu, the Minister of Defense of Romania, confirmed that a Russian Shahed-136 one-way drone violated Romanian airspace, with fighter planes from Romania and Germany responding. An air raid alert was issued in northern Tulcea county, with residents told “to take shelter in basements, or stay indoors, away from windows and exterior walls.”

“Today, the Romanian Air Force intercepted a Russian drone violating our national airspace,” Mostenau wrote on Twitter (X).

“Two F-16s from the 86th Air Base scrambled and tracked it until it disappeared near Chilia Veche. The population was never in danger. Romania condemns Russia’s reckless behavior, which poses a threat to regional stability. Together with our NATO Allies, we remain vigilant and ready to defend every inch of Allied airspace.”

A video posted online from Tulcea County, Romania, showed an F-16 conducting an air policing mission. Mosteanu told U.S. news outlet CNN that the drone was not shot down, but that the Air Force was “very close” to taking military action. Our Russia-Ukraine War Map has been updated to reflect the latest incursion.

“The drone was flying very low, at some point it went to Ukraine, this is the information we have now, that the drone left the airspace back to Ukraine,” he said. Mosteanu added that two German Luftwaffe Typhoon Eurofighters supported the air policing mission.

In September 2023, Romania established a no-fly zone over the Danube River Delta and, on 20 May, passed legislation that modified national law to enable the Air Force to shoot down unnamed systems flying in the nation’s airspace.

At the time of publication, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had not published its daily report on the number of drones and missiles involved in today’s air raids.

Air raid sirens blare in Poland as fighter planes scramble

On Saturday, Polish authorities issued an air raid alert for Chełm, Krasnystaw, Łęczna, Świdnica, Włodawa, in the Lublin Voivodeship. Air traffic was suspended at Lublin International Airport for the second time in less than a week, due to Russian drones flying in the area.

At the time of the ground stop, open-source flight tracking data showed that an Atlas Air 747 cargo plane, which had departed from Dover Air Force Base in Delaware and was en route to Lublin, was flying over western Poland. Atlas Air is one of the primary contractors for transporting U.S. military aid for Ukraine, and Lublin is one of the two major logistical hubs in Poland.

Air raid sirens were activated in eastern Poland. Impacted residents were warned, “Threat of air attack. Exercise extreme caution. Follow the instructions of the services. Wait for further announcements.”

The Polish and French Air Forces, supported by other nations as part of Operation Eastern Sentry, scrambled F-16s and Rafale fighters, and air defenses were activated. No airspace violations were recorded.

As part of the joint Russian-Belarusian Wargames Zapad-2025, the Russian military deployed two 9P78-1 Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) armed with Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) on the E-25 Highway near Talpaki in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Zapad-2025 is simulating a first strike against Eastern Europe, including the use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.

Estonia establishes a no-fly zone

Estonia issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), establishing a no-fly zone in the eastern part of the nation. No date was set for the closure to end. Estonia joined Poland, which established a 90-day no-fly zone with limited daytime exceptions on 11 September, and Lithuania, which established a 120-kilometer-long no-fly zone east of the capital city of Vilnius on 21 August, which is set to expire on 1 October.

Assessment: NATO was tested, and it failed

In our assessment, the Russian incursion into Polish airspace on 10 September was intentional due to the use of extended-range fuel tanks in the Gerbera decoys and the number of drones that violated NATO airspace. This was carried out as part of Zapaz-2025 to simulate a real first-strike against a NATO country. This is further reinforced by today’s military activity in the exclave of Kaliningrad.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Wednesday’s response, which resulted in three or four of 19 confirmed drones being shot down. In our assessment, this was a very poor performance that demonstrated the Alliance’s lack of preparedness to address the threats of mid-21st-century warfare. When engaging threats in the atmospheric domain, a success rate of at least 85% is considered acceptable.

We are unconvinced by Warsaw’s claim that only drones that presented a threat were targeted, considering that one Gerbera UAV crashed in the middle of a Polish military base 252 kilometers west of the Belarus border.

Multiple Ukrainian sources have told us that when interacting with NATO leadership, many remain dismissive of drones as a significant threat on the battlefield. There is a pervasive belief that low-cost, high-production UAVs would be easily defeated by electronic warfare systems and GPS/GLONASS spoofing and jamming. This has not been the reality for Ukrainian or Russian forces, who are locked in a high-stakes game of sword versus shield. Both combatants are constantly updating their systems to defeat improvements made in weeks, sometimes days.

In the fall of 2024, a report by the U.S. Air Force warned that the United States is unprepared for the realities of the next kinetic conflict it engages in. The Department of the Air Force in 2050 report cautioned that regardless of the combatant, the continental U.S. could be attacked by missiles, drones, and space-based weapons.

“In 2050, we should expect to be under the threat of ultra-long-range precision weapons at any range and launched from any domain, including space. There will be no sanctuary from these weapons…Even a largely localized conflict will come to the U.S. homeland, and not only through the possible use of long-range precision kinetic weapons against our territory. Critical military and non-military infrastructure – as well as human cognition itself – will be at risk of kinetic and non-kinetic attack in cyber and information domains.”

We believe that Moscow had three operational goals for its operation against Poland and achieved two of these goals.

• Test the response of NATO air defenses and their effectiveness. With only 3 to 4 drones intercepted out of 19 and at least one crashing in the middle of a Polish military base in Nowe Miasto nad Pilica, the Alliance failed to respond adequately.
• Divide the NATO Alliance by exploiting U.S. isolationism and Russian support by NATO Alliance members Hungary and Slovakia. The NATO response on Wednesday was led by U.S. Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, who was appointed the Supreme Allied Commander Europe on July 4, 2025, after confirmation by the Senate. He is also leading Operation Eastern Sentry.
  However, the U.S. didn’t release any official statement about the Russian provocation in Poland until Saturday, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio calling the incident “unacceptable,” but repeating the official position of the White House that the airspace violations may have been an accident. “No doubt about it: the drones were intentionally launched. The question is whether the drones were targeted to go into Poland specifically.”
  Additionally, the U.S. has not pledged any additional military resources to NATO’s eastern flank. On 4 September, the U.S. ended funding for the Baltic Security Initiative and other programs that provided military assistance and training to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. A bipartisan group of Congresspersons is attempting to reestablish the fund as part of ongoing negotiations to pass a Continuing Resolution to prevent a government shutdown on 1 October.
  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban condemned the incident but blamed Poland for being “neck deep” in the war. Since February 2022, Slovakia and Hungary have never had their airspace violated by Russia, despite sharing a border with Ukraine.
  On Saturday morning, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his personal social media network, Truth Social, declaring Washington was prepared to sanction Russia, on the condition that all NATO nations stop purchasing Russian energy products and implement 100% tariffs on China. Slovakia and Hungary remain dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. Hungary will end natural gas purchases in 2026, after signing a 10-year contract with Shell, but remains committed to Russian crude and the ongoing construction of the Pak-2 nuclear reactor.
• Reduce military resources that could be transferred to Ukraine. In response to the Russian airspace violations, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands have moved air defense systems into Poland. Systems that could have potentially been deployed to Ukraine to provide additional protection to civilians and infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that this was one of Moscow’s goals. There are no indications that any of Ukraine’s allies intend to withhold previously committed air defense resources.

On 11 September, our analyst team assessed, “We maintain that the number of Russian drones violating NATO airspace will increase due to the tepid response by NATO and the continued non-response by the United States after the Polish drone incursions of 9–10 September.”

Today’s incident in Romania confirms our outlook. We now believe that Romania, Moldova, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland are in an unofficial gray zone where the lines of hybrid warfare and kinetic warfare are now blurred. The lack of U.S. support, even after Moscow announced it was “pausing” peace talks with Washington and Kyiv on the 12th, is tantamount to a green light to expand incursions into NATO airspace. We anticipate the number of incidents to increase, not just with drones, but with aircraft and, longer-term, potentially with cruise missiles.

Hungary and Slovakia remain immune to airspace incursions, partially due to their geography. The Hungary-Ukraine border is relatively rural and on the western foothills of the Carpathian Mountains. The Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod is close to the Slovakian border, but didn’t experience Russian air raids until mid-2025. Both countries have pro-Kremlin regimes, although Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has shown more flexibility and supports Ukraine’s accession into the European Union.

We don’t believe that winter weather will reduce the number of incidents, except in cases of major weather events. In 2023 and 2024, Russia frequently used poor weather to conduct large-scale attacks against Ukraine to help conceal the flight path of drones from short-range air defense systems.

There is some good news: Europe may be waking up

Hours before Russia carried out its provocation against Poland, the United Kingdom announced Project Octopus, which will mass-produce high-speed interceptor drones in partnership with Ukraine. The first 1,000 units will be provided to Ukraine by the end of the year. Future production will support U.K. and Ukrainian air defenses, with Kyiv transferring proprietary technology to British defense contractors.

On Saturday, the Ukrainian news outlet the Kyiv Independent reported that the defense advisory firm Triada Trade Partners saw a “surge in inquiries” from Europe for drone interceptors and electronic warfare systems. Requests have come from Poland, Germany, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

Ukrainian interceptor drones, such as the Sting developed by Wild Hornets, the Furie developed by United Unmanned Systems, and an interceptor system developed by MaXon, cost between $2,500 and $5,000 each and reach speeds and altitudes that conventional first-person view (FPV) drones cannot achieve.

The lack of a meaningful response from Washington and multiple statements deflecting responsibility from autocrat Vladimir Putin onto NATO, Ukraine, and Poland should serve as a warning to the European continent. Security guarantees and a U.S. commitment to Article V of the NATO Charter are unlikely to be honored.

On Wednesday morning, while Russian drones were still flying across Poland, U.S. Secretary of War (Defense) Pete Hegseth was asked by U.S. news outlet Fox News about his priorities outside of the Americas. “We’ve projected power for a long time in far-flung places that had a nebulous connection to our own security in the homeland,” he said, “We’re securing the homeland.”

Russia has no incentive to stop its escalations

In our final assessment, Europe is being told that it stands alone, and Russia is leveraging indecision and unrest, partially caused by more than a decade of hybrid warfare and psychological operations, to further fracture the NATO Alliance.

Autocrat Vladimir Putin remains fully committed to his openly stated maximalist goals to reestablish the borders of the Russian Imperial Empire. If the European NATO nations and the E.U. economic bloc do not mobilize against this existential threat, a broader war will come to the European continent by 2030.

Moscow has a history of interpreting any compromise as a sign of weakness and then pushing beyond the newly established boundaries. Issuing over two dozen redlines since 2022 against Ukraine and its allies, almost all have been broken, and none of the promised threats, including a nuclear response, have been carried through.

We have serious questions about the discussions held between U.S. President Donald Trump and autocrat Putin on 15 August in Anchorage, Alaska, but advise against conspiratorial thinking. The number of missile and drone attacks against Ukraine, and their size, have only increased since the last round of peace talks was held. This aligns with the Russian doctrine of viewing compromise as a sign of weakness. It is a giant leap to suggest that Trump and Putin discussed a sphere of influence deal, where the U.S. yields the Eastern Hemisphere to Russia and, by proxy, the Axis powers of Belarus, Iran, China, and North Korea.

In the short term, we expect continued provocations and escalation by Russia, while positioning itself as the victim in the information space.